jorgenswest

In the line up today

This was far worse than being in first place at the deadline and trading for Mahle. I absolutely want them to take risks then for one of the more talented starters moved at that deadline. They made two moves this year volunteering to take on contracts for players that were not wanted by their organizations. The Mariners had to take on DeSclafani to make their Giants trade work. The Dodgers had to take on an Margot to make the Rays trade work. Neither was going to make those rosters and they found someone to take them off their hands. Once they traded for DeSclafani they stopped looking for alternatives. They have so little confidence in Margot that they started Martin instead when Buxton moved to DH. Falvey didn’t set the budget but he did set the roster. It started with needing to cut 30 million. You don’t payed a short side platoon infielder beyond market and then follow up by taking on the DeSclafani and Margot dollars. When the money is good take a chance on an injured pitcher and solidify the short side platoon. When the money isn’t good they really needed to prioritize the everyday line up and reliable depth. They leave themselves with a real need for an everyday hitter to add to an obviously weak lineup against right handed pitching and no depth in starting pitching.

The next pitcher in line is likely the pitcher is rested when there is a need. Last year Ober appeared to be next in line but Varland got the earlier opportunity since he was rested. The Twins would be wise to sync the player they perceive most ready with the starter more likely to need replacement. I think that is Paddack or Varland so I would line up that pitcher so that they are in sync with those two or maybe a day earlier.

Vazquez was great in the bottom of the 8th. Getting a called strike 3 on the lead off hitter topped by throwing out Witt. Then he wins it in the 9th with the bat. Wow!

We look forward to seeing if Austin Martin can translate his on base skills to the big leagues. Will those skills translate without more power? He has a career 105 ISO is the minor leagues which led to major league projections this year in the 80-99 range. That leads to the following questions. Is there any reason to hope that his ISO is trending up? Can a hitter be a successful every day player with a ISO in the 80-99 range? Any hope? There is at least some reason to hope that his ISO is trending up. One narrative is that the Twins messed him up trying to swing his approach and swing towards more power. I think it was the correct direction. Add a little power to his on base skills and defensive versatility and you find a valuable major league player. The adjustments may have helped. His ISO last year in AAA was 142 following a AA ISO of 93 over the previous two seasons. Somehow the narrative of the Twins failure to get more power misses this change in ISO. Can he be successful? Last year there were four major league regulars with an ISO below 100 in Tim Anderson, Myles Straw, Maikel Garcia and Andrew Benintendi. All were well be below average hitters on the season. In the 100-120 range you will find some average major league hitters in Steven Kwan, Nico Hoerner, Jeff McNeill and Ty France. Nick Madrigal has been average in this range in previous seasons. McNeill and France were on a career low end of ISO so it seems like Hoerner and Kwan are the best hopes here. Here is a comparison of their last year in the minors. Martin has more walks at the cost of more strikeouts and a lower batting average. The window is small and he does need to continue with the upward ISO trend to make up for his lower batting average but there is a window for success with a low ISO. I should add that you will also find Luis Arraez here with an ISO of 115 last year. I think he is one of a kind but we can hope.

Martin has very similar hitting numbers to Gilberto Celestino with more speed and defensive flexibility. Hopefully he can combine that with the BABIP luck Celestino had early on to make a difference while Lewis is out.

Martin up. Lewis on IL.

Farmer’s career OPS against right handed pitching is .658. I wouldn’t start him against right handed pitching. Castro may not be much better but he also adds speed when he is on base.

The difference defensively between the two is marginal at best and the bat matters more at 3B. Play the better bat every game.

It would be nice to have another everyday bat for the top half of the line up. Someone like Polanco would really help. Jorge didn’t inspire much confidence at 3B last year but that was without working on it in spring. He isn’t needed there anyway with Castro. His bat is needed. Any everyday top half of the line up bat is needed. Falvey knew the budget. He chose Farmer and DeSclafani over Polanco. The dollars are virtually the same.

The biggest loss is his bat. They have plenty of coverage at 3B. A Castro/Farmer platoon will work with Julien playing 2B. Margot can play across the outfield. They need a bat that can play everyday regardless of position. Who is that bat?

I am fine paying him the 6.25 at last year’s budget level. This year I would have prioritized the smaller budget differently. Farmer needs to show he can hit right handed pitching. If not, he needs to remain in his short side platoon role and they must look elsewhere to replace Lewis. They can’t put a weak bat at a corner.

That wasn’t a play I thought he could make last year. Squared up the lefty also after working the count in his favor. Everyday player?

Career path from college to majors in second full season it might be Knoblauch or Walker. Walker played 2B after his terrible shoulder injury as an amateur. The hit tool might be similar particularly the strength against right handed pitchers. Knoblauch made it out of spring training in his second full season as a non roster player. He also comes from a baseball family like Lee.

Duran is the reason the Twins are seen as a good bullpen. He is one of the best in the game. Remove Duran and they are mediocre at best. Fangraphs ranks bullpens by WAR. Duran represented 37% of that WAR. The new additions in Okert (0.3), Jackson (0.3), Topa(0) and Staumont(0) barely move the needle.

I think they already push a good nutrition and conditioning plan with all of their players. How would they mandate it? What is the consequence? Release? No offer of extension? Committing to strength and conditioning needs to be self mandated. Some are better at it than others and one of a player’s “tools” that should be considered upon acquisition.

There were a few others in the organization that failed to make the pipeline but in hindsight are probably top 30 if reranked with some in the top 10. Kala’i Rosario (drafted 2020) Spencer Steer, Eduardo Julien, Louis Varland, Brent Headrick, Sawyer Gipson Long, Casey Legumina (drafted 2019) Kody Funderburk (drafted 2018) Yennier Cano, Jair Camargo

I know better than to be concerned about the spring stats of any individual but it is getting hard to ignore all of the team losses.

All players need to make adjustments as they work through the minors. Some handle it and make it. Some take more time. If Larnach is going to have an impact on a corner or DH he is going to need to hit and hit with power. He will need to hit breaking balls well enough to force pitchers to throw the fastball more often. Those changes have been slow in coming. If Martin is going to be more than a utility player he needs to hit with some extra base power. That has been slow in coming partially due to injury. I hope that he continues to seek more power in his approach. With a little more pop he is a major league regular.

This isn’t very compelling evidence. Is his velocity down? Has the movement changed? According to Fangraphs swinging strikes are way up. Velocity is not his ticket to the majors but has it dropped a few ticks from the 91.4? Velocity is Staumont’s ticket. Has it returned to pre-injury level? I read it was down early on. I also saw he recently hit 98. I think Alcala already earned a spot over Staumont. If it is between Staumont and Funderburk I am not looking at ERA or even strike outs and walks to make the decision. Even the pitch level data is unreliable at this point but it is far better. edit: Staumont’s velocity update

Couldn’t they keep all 4 relievers and send out Varland until a 5th starter is needed on April 10? In that case though I would have kept a left handed bat and sent down Sands. They shouldn’t need a 9 man pen to start the season.

Agree. I don’t think the Mariners make the trade unless the Twins take DeSclafani. It certainly would have been a better trade without him. Falvey did not set the player budget but he was responsible for allocating it. Polanco had to be traded once they chose to tender Farmer. Is the 2024 team better with Polanco, Varland and Alcala or Farmer, DeSclafani and Topa? I think the money is virtually the same. No move should have been made this winter that didn’t improve the 2024 team.

If there is a need in the outfield and Brooks Lee the best bat available against right handed pitching it sure would be nice to have Lewis ready to play out there. His athleticism is such a good fit and all of the other options appear to be role players rather than every day players. I know that Falvey said last year that it was not an option for 2023 with his May start. It is 2024 and it isn’t hard to foresee a need in the outfield until Rodríguez and Jenkins arrive.

Agree. I think the only ones that can assess readiness are those that have been with him in every work out, batting cage and game. Stats from last year or this spring are of little value. I hope they leave spring with the best possible lineup against right handed pitching rostered. That line up took a hit with the loss of Polanco and possibly Gordon. That left Santana or Larnach or maybe Lee as the best candidate. If it is not Santana then I guess we have to hope for an injury to make the roster work. It seems odd to hope for an injury. Which IL stay by a position player would have the least impact on winning?

The spot for Lee is against right handed pitching. If he is judged to be better than Santana do the Twins need to find a spot for him? If so, there is certainly a spot in the lineup with Lee at second and Julien/Kirilloff at 1B or DH. Finding that roster spot has been made difficult with the decision to go with so many short side platoon bats at the cost of Santana playing regularly against right handed pitching. If Lee is deemed to be in their best line up against right handed pitching which they will see about 75% of the time, which position player has the least value to the team to make a spot for him?