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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Jeffers has been valuable. He plays catcher. He has a wRC+ of 179. He is second in the league in WPA from overturning calls. He has to be among the leagues most valuable players thus far.
  2. jorgenswest
    The first hit by Clement’s’ bouncer in the 7th had a .120 hit probability. It sure doesn’t look like 30 feet away from second though. In the home plate view of the hit Lee is not in the picture and Keaschall is in the picture. Keaschall is likely closer. Keaschall certainly was closer to the ball Guerrero hit two batters later. Instead of going for the ball he went to second. Not sure he can get either though. The Twins defense left a wide open hole up the middle with Lee shifted so far over and Keaschall only moderately shifted for both at bats. They were also both at double play depth on the Guerrero bouncer. You are correct the Twins should have had outs on that grounder. They really need to coordinate the shift of Keaschall and Lee so that they can protect the middle of the field.nThose were the two low hit probability balls in play that the Twins defense turned into singles. The 8th inning pop up had a hit probability of .520.
  3. jorgenswest
    Last year the Twins gave a 40 man spot to McCusker who had a hot start to the AAA season. Every 40 man spot is valuable. I wouldn’t describe it as little to lose. They really need to be sure that Fedko will stick all year. In my mind it is pretty easy to justify a spot for Rodriguez in replace of Outman. Play him in RF four times a week and once in CF. Move Bell to 1B those 4 games. Wallner or Larnach get more DH time. The outfield defense is much better in RF. Defense at 1B takes a hit but the bar wasn’t that high to begin with.
  4. jorgenswest
    The system doesn’t know whether a close pitch is a strike or a ball. It isn’t consistent within that range. There will still be bias and possibly stronger motivation for bias when challenges are exhausted. If they were to immediately change the call for every missed pitch outside 0.4 inches we would have fixed many more calls that are very likely incorrect. There would be no opportunity for bias. Umpires should be very motivated to not get overturned and every overturned call should be confidently incorrect. There have been 506 overturned calls this year and the vast majority have been 0,4 inches or more away from the plate. There have also 1716 pitches that the system would have overturned had they been challenged. That isn’t a consistent strike zone.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think Rodriguez could get enough playing time but it would involve Bell playing 1B more and Caratini/Clemens playing 1B less. Bell is a defensive downgrade at 1B. Rodriguez would be an upgrade in RF over Wallner and in CF when Buxton is out.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am biased. I happen to know a kid (to me) who umpires major league games. To overturn a call that ABS isn’t confident in disrespects the really good work of umpires. Umpires do make mistakes. Captures those pitches that ABS is confident are incorrect. Honor the umpires on the ones where ABS isn’t truly certain. I counted this weekend. Yesterday only 4 of the 46 challenges were less than 0.4 inches. Another was less than 0.5. On those four state the truth and call it inconclusive and allow the team to retain their challenge without overturning the call. Yesterday 7 of 61 were in that 0.4 range. One was 0.01 inches. Let’s honor the umpire on those. I hope the tinkering is like the NFL instant review and immediately fix every confidently wrong call. Let’s not have a game decided on a mistaken call because a team has run out of challenges. Let’s drop the challenge nonsense.
  7. jorgenswest
    Shelton shows tremendous trust in his players. Bradley and Morris were allowed to work out of multiple innings. I think that can only make them better. They combined for 173 pitches. How many pitchers would we have seen today with Rocco? As a result the bullpen has several arms available tomorrow.
  8. jorgenswest
    Isn’t the current zone is a 2D slice of the plate? Wouldn’t that be a change in the definition of what it means to be a strike crossing the plate? I agree that any part of the ball is the same.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Athletic. I linked that article here Much easier in tennis because the ball will change its path when it hits the 2D plane of the court.
  10. jorgenswest
    ABS had no idea if that was a strike. The technology can’t determine the exact location of the ball. The tolerance for the 99% confidence interval is 0.48 inches. At that close it was probably 50% confident it was correct. MLB’s graphics would have us believe ABS has found the exact location of the ball. Those graphics should come with the confidence interval. If not 99% then 95% which is .39 inches. Anything less than that and they should stick with the umpire and state that the ABS system was inconclusive.
  11. jorgenswest
    Watching Kreidler and Outman play defense makes me wonder… Which helps a team more at the end of the bench? A player that has few skills that are above average and really struggles to be passable with the rest. A player that can do several things passably but is below average across the board. Manuel Margot in 23-24 might describe the second player. His defense was still OK. He wasn’t slow on the bases. In 2023 his OPS was .686 and it was .626 in 2024. He was a historically bad pinch hitter but that sample is so small and he hit .231 as a PH in 2023.
  12. jorgenswest
    I look forward to seeing Culpepper in 2026
  13. jorgenswest
    I think the 3B options are Culpepper at SS with Lee at 3B. Clemens has played 3B. Tristan Gray can play 3B. Wagaman and Kreidler can play 3B. I would like them to bring up Rodriguez with Kreidler. DFA Outman and play Rodriguez in RF. He will be a big upgrade defensively there. Bell moves to first and that will be a drop defensively but the others are at best mediocre. Clemens or Gray at 3B with maybe Kreidler against a lefty. They might also play Gray/Kreidler at SS with Lee at 3B. Martin played mostly 3B at Vanderbilt as well as some CF. The Blue Jays tried to make him a SS but I wonder if he can play a passable 3B. Here is a report from 2020 as the draft approached.
  14. jorgenswest
    Did they wait to do imaging on Lewis until Friday in Toronto? Why not do it Thursday? This should be an opportunity for Culpepper. Put him at SS with Lee and Gray at 3B. Maybe he plays well and doesn’t go back. Maybe he goes back with an idea of where he needs to work. They can DFA Kreidler or Wagaman. I would also bring up Matthews for the pen. He is rested to gives them length. He also gives them a higher velocity. I also would ignore those the poor starts as long as he is healthy. Shorten up his pitch mix and put him in the pen. Maybe he earns a late inning role in the pen. That job is wide open. I hope the Twins view this as an opportunity.
  15. jorgenswest
    I looked at each roster and counted the number of players appearances beyond the top 9. I wondered how the Twins utilized their bench compared to the rest of the league. There is some trouble counting. One team has used 16 players and several have used 15 mostly due to injury. Returns of optioned players can’t be made in the first 10 days unless there is an injury. There are 15 teams that have not made a bench player move yet. Among those 15 teams the Twins 4 players totaled 87 plate appearances. That is the most among the 15 teams. The Giants are on the other end at 33. The median is the Cardinals at 58. I also noticed that the Cubs have a position player who has played in the field and pinch ran but has no plate appearances. Looking at the 32 teams in total there are 6 teams that have more plate appearances beyond their top 10 than the Twins. The Pirates are one with 89 but that includes Konnor Griffin’s 22 since he was called up to be a starter. The Twins has a Buxton injury and missed one start that padded their total a little but I think it is fair to say that they have utilized the 13 players on their roster more than most teams so far.
  16. jorgenswest
    He has assets that help the bench. That catch yesterday prevented the Tigers from taking the lead in the 7th. It also allowed the Twins to continue with Acton who then also pitched the 9th inning. It could have been the difference in the game and also results in a more rested bullpen for today’s game. Unless the Twins are going to employ a rotation where all 13 position players are getting regular starts I think he fits a defense or pinch runner late game sub.
  17. jorgenswest
    I really like any of the top 3 in the recent Athletic ranking. Cholowsky, Lackey and Flora all play a premium positions that will always be valuable. Any of those three would make great additions.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Tigers four starters combined for 19.2 innings giving up 30 hits, 18 earned runs with 10 walks and 19 strike outs. Their combined ERA was 8.24. The Twins four starters combined for 23 innings giving up 18 hits, 5 earned runs with 7 walks and 25 strikeouts. Their combined ERA was 1.96. The Tigers have committed 75.65 million dollars to those 4 starters. The Twins have committed 12.94 million dollars to their 4 starters.
  19. jorgenswest
    So many positives to notice today. Outman’s catch in the 7th was huge. That ball sure looked like it was going to land fair. In that case the Tigers break the tie and have another runner in scoring position. Action probably doesn’t make it through the 7th. With that catch the score stays tied and Acton makes it through 8.
  20. jorgenswest
    They beat a 32 million dollar pitcher folded by 27.5 million. Valdez has an AAV of 36.5. Next year his salary is 45.5. How much money have the Twins committed this year to the 9 they faced?
  21. jorgenswest
    I agree with the prediction. It should be added that their walk rate (4th) is a big contributor to their just above league average wRC+ (101).
  22. jorgenswest
    I said early on I don’t like this line up with one left handed hitter against lefties. After scoring 11 runs in the two games against Skubal and Valdez I could not have been more wrong.
  23. jorgenswest
    Absolutely. He has two options. Twins can make space on the 40. Is he on waivers or recently designated? They may need to make a minor trade.
  24. jorgenswest
    It is three starts. While I enjoyed these three starts I realize Bradley has had really good stretches in previous years. In 2024 he had a run of 8 consecutive starts where he gave up a total of three runs. Even in his struggles last year he put up two three game stretches where he allowed a total of four runs. Bradley looks awesome. I am encouraged. I also know it is a long season.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think hitters will get better at it. They will learn from their mistakes. It might even make them better hitters by adding to their recognition of the strike zone. I wouldn’t put on handcuffs yet.
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