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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I have been paying attention to Julien’s approach this spring. No called strikes today. He stayed in the zone.
  2. jorgenswest
    I really appreciated the work from @chpettit19 to give us the breakdown by batting order position. It is helpful. The line up also needs to be strategic. The batters immediately before and after Wallner matter. The Twins need to do a better job of winning the substitution chess match this year. I think leading off with Wallner against a right handed starter can put the other manager can put the manager in a thought spot. Do you bring in the lefty against him knowing that he has to face Correa, Lewis or Buxton in the at bats following? There is a flaw in that thinking though. The manager can bring that lefty in against the number 8 hitter. If France or Miranda or Jeffers are in that 8 spot that might make the manager think twice about bringing in a lefty early. The Twins will have two or three lefties in that line up including Larnach and Julien. Batting Wallner first with Larnach 5th or perhaps Larnach 4th and Julien 7th is going to make it challenging to place that left handed reliever. The Twins can continue that advantage by keeping the game in the middle innings. Last year the other manager too often put the Twins at a disadvantage with the line up moves. Batting Wallner first might turn that advantage around.
  3. jorgenswest
    That Larnach throws right makes me wonder more why he has never been on the infield. Kirilloff didn’t play first base until he got to AA but is a player that was primarily an outfielder they moved to first. Kepler played 76 games in the minors at 1B. That is what stands out to me for Larnach. He never played 1B in the minors or college. The fit for someone like Larnach at 1B could easily be projected from the time he was drafted. I can only go by how the Twins have used him to conclude he doesn’t have the tools to play that spot. What are the other options? Larnach is unwilling to play 1B. I rejected that possibility. He plays another more important position so well that they would never move him off that spot. his use at DH negates that possibility. The Twins staff is so inept that it didn’t occur to them that Larnach might be needed 1B. Maybe that is the case but I trust in the staff and reject that possibility. They have played so many players at 1B in the minors. I hope it is the last case and an oversight on the Twins part. I hope that it isn’t his lack of tools to play the position. It would help the Twins to have that flexibility with his bat.
  4. jorgenswest
    Cabrera began his career in the minors as a SS and moved to 3B and then the outfield. Pujols played 3B in the minors almost exclusively. I need to be more clear. I wonder about a player who played exclusively corner outfield in college and the minors was never given a game at first base. My conclusion is that there are some tools necessary to play a passable major league 1B and not every player possesses those tools.
  5. jorgenswest
    When Larnach was in AA Pensacola in 2019 the Twins played Kirilloff some at 1B though he played more in the outfield. Pensacola played 9 players at 1B that year. Four of them have played in the majors. The 2021 Saints used 11 players at 1B. Eight have them have played in the majors. Larnach didn’t get a single game at 1B either year. Why? While I believe most major leaguers have tools to play 1B, there have been enough mediocre corner outfielder that have never put on a first base glove to lead me to believe that not everyone can play a passable 1B. It is possible to be a slow defender with a big bat and still have soft hands. I don’t agree at all with your choice of “dumping grounds”. I have too much respect for anyone who has made their way to the majors to characterize any role on the team as a dumping ground.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t believe it is a position any major leaguer can play. I think most infielders and catchers bring passable ability with their hands and feet to play 1B so maybe Julien can play passably there. I don’t know if Larnach or Wallner have the necessary tools to play a passable 1B. For some reason they made it through college and the minors without ever getting time at the position. This is a position in which their minor league managers often played 8 or 9 guys over the season. Failing to give Larnach and Wallner a look there could not have been an oversight.
  7. jorgenswest
    It does take some ability. It takes good feet and good hands to play first base. Hatteberg was a catcher. A catcher needs good hands, good feet and a good arm. After Hatteberg hurt his arm he still had the feet and hands. He still needed lots of reps but he brought some ability with his hands and feet.
  8. jorgenswest
    I am with you everything with the exception of giving Larnach a first base glove. it seems like the obvious play. A first baseman doesn’t need a good arm or good range. A first baseman can be left handed. For some reason Trevor Larnach has never played an inning of first base in the majors. He never played first base in college. He did play one game in the Cape Cod summer league in 2017. One. That is really unusual for a left handed throwing corner outfielder. It really helps to have good hands and feet to play first base. The Twins have not been shy about playing players around the field in the minors. Larnach played AA in Pensacola in 2019. The Twins AA team used 9 players at first base. Alex Kirilloff played 35 games there. It was his first time at 1B since being drafted in 2016. They didn’t use Larnach at 1B.
  9. jorgenswest
    The velocity on his sinker (primary pitch in 2023) has not approached his average velocity on that pitch in his only successful year. Do we expect that it will average 95 and touch 97 on occasion once he gets a few more outings in?
  10. jorgenswest
    I found his approach at the plate in his first training game encouraging. First at bat. First pitch down the middle. Line drive single. Second at bat. Takes ball 1 and ball 2. He took a called strike pitch 3 but he was ahead in the count. The pitch was in the upper away part of the strike zone. Pitch 4 was an outside middle strike that he lined out to left field. Third at bat. First pitch center up in the strike zone. Ground out. His approach didn’t work last year. I can’t argue with his approach yesterday. The one called strike was when he was ahead 2-0. He should shrink the strike zone when ahead. I suppose he could have taken that first strike in at bat 3 but at this point I would rather see him error on the side of aggressiveness.
  11. jorgenswest
    I do agree about the Twins needing to select the best 5. I have no idea how the determine which pitchers are the best 5. Data that I have access to from spring games is virtually worthless. The sample is far too small and skewed even further by varying levels of competition. The skilled eyes of those seeing the pitchers every day in training and games will be the best measure. I firmly believe spring training matters. I also know that spring training stats are meaningless.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would agree that there were no red flags for Topa. I also don’t think he did anything today to offer hope that he can repeat his one good season. The velocity on his sinker, which was his primary pitch in that good season, centered about 91. In 2023 his average velocity on the sinker was 95. I don’t think it is unusual for velocity to be lower at the beginning of spring training. I do think the Twins need to see average velocity hover around 95 before putting him on the 26 man roster.
  13. jorgenswest
    How would that be helpful to the future of the Twins? Why do we need to know? Seems like the best route to a new owner is a private process.
  14. jorgenswest
    You had to wonder why their interest was leaked so early in the process. I don’t see how the leak would benefit the Pohlads. It doesn’t benefit the Ishbia group unless they want to put leverage on the White Sox.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have learned to check for myself. Bader’s wRC+ L/R 2024: 70/93 2023: 151/35 2022: 66/89 2021: 101/110 Source: Fangraphs
  16. jorgenswest
    Miranda’s OOA last year at 1B was 0 in 100 innings. For his career it is -4 in 698 innings. Even assuming that he has not improved over the career number, how much should we worry about an out every 19-20 games? He will need to make it up with the bat. It will be his bat that determines the playing time. Julien did drop last year in OOA. It could be the shift. He had a -4 in 622 innings. His bat in 2023 would easily make up the difference. It will be his bat that determines his playing time. Lewis had a positive OOA. He makes some bad throws but must make up for it with range. It won’t be their gloves that keep them off the field. It will be mediocre bats that keep them out of the line up.
  17. jorgenswest
    It is really hard to hit major league pitching. The typical AAA pitcher is much closer to the typical AA pitcher than a major league pitcher. The jump is huge. For most players it takes time with a mix of success and an abundance of failure. The depth of those failures will be new for many players and they will need to learn how to respond to it. I don’t know if Lee will be a successful regular in the major leagues. He may need to utilize his three options to get there. Let’s get to that third option and lots more major league PAs before we see this as make or break. I am hoping for a make this year but if much is spent in AAA I won’t call it a break.
  18. jorgenswest
    I would not assume that the path to the majors is any quicker from the bullpen. It wasn’t in Ragans case. If he were having success as a lefty in the bullpen in 2023 there would have been no need to trade for Chapman. I would have the goal of a healthy year. Maximizing those healthy innings will be give the best hope that he will be helpful to this organization down the road. I think the best way to accomplish that is the regular work of a starter in the minors gradually increasing the number of pitches. Once he puts a healthy season in the books they can plan for how he best fits in the majors.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Rangers did not have enough patience or trust in his health with Ragans. They would not have traded a top half of the rotation starter if they saw that in his near future. Is this a lesson for the Twins? It will be a long wait. Ragans second surgery was March of 2018. It was the second half of 2023 before he was effective again. Prielipp had surgery on July 18, 2023. If he needs Ragans path, it is unlikely the Twins can wait that long.
  20. jorgenswest
    That won’t be good enough. Even though the value of 1 to 2 WAR exceeds his contract it will not help this team win games especially if it comes with a full season of health. Lots of playing time and 1-2 WAR from your first baseman will be a result of a batting line that isn’t close to good enough. He needs to approach Santana’s worth to help this team contend. Fangraphs had Santans’s worth at almost 25 million. France’s 21-22 numbers approach that level. Anything short of that and they need to move on. Quickly.
  21. jorgenswest
    There will be injuries and opportunities. The only thing that will stop Miranda or Julien or Larnach from taking the next step and thriving is their own mediocre play. The frustrating part about signing guys like France is the patience the Twins seem to have with mediocre play from veterans where it feels like there is little hope they will move beyond mediocre.
  22. jorgenswest
    I had to wonder about his splits. He was better at home than on the road last year. His wRC+ was 103 on the road which is very close to his career wRC+ on the road of 105. I would stick with Miranda and Julien. A wRC+ of 105 for a DH/1B is closer to DFA level than worthy of giving up assets.
  23. jorgenswest
    Intriguing. MLB has a formula for competitive balance picks. I can’t argue one or an another if it effective at finding the teams that need that competitive balance. Assuming it is a good measure… Let’s move those picks to the start of the draft. Let’s make them conditional based on spending enough vs revenue in order to earn those picks. Let’s determine the order by record of those teams and reward the team with the best record with the first pick. I can see several possible results that would be beneficial to me. Reward smaller market teams for their efforts to compete Competitive balance picks can be traded now but imagine the value if they are at the top of the draft Would there be fewer sellers at the deadline if teams are fighting for wins and better draft position? Fewer sellers will for the rich teams to pay up more for their trade deadline acquisitions I am with Mike in his earlier comment also. It isn’t World Series or bust for me. I want to watch a season full of competitive baseball games. This will help.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is it a given that his defense in center field is well worth a bench spot? I don’t know what that is based on. It must not be the on the eyes of the Twins staff that sees him every day. They have had a need and not turned to him. It certainly isn’t based in the limited data we have from his play in the minors. That data does not look like a player with good range. I would like to be more confident in his glove but other than anecdotal reports I don’t know what to go on. Is the entire Twins staff so inept that they can’t see an above average major league defender in CF? Has he had a string of several years in the minors where he consistently had fewer opportunities in centerfield than his teammates leading to a lackluster RF/9? Austin Martin had minor league RF/9 numbers of 3.13 in 2023 and 3.24 in 2024. With the same teams Keirsey was 2.46 and 2.68. His best is 2.76. Maybe balls just don’t get hit his way when he is out there. Help me with some data that points to a defense well worth a bench spot. I want it to be there. I don’t want the Twins continuing this cycle of decline phase stop gap free agents. With Emmanuel Rodriguez close, I would have gone with Keirsey/Martin/Castro with no expectation that any can play average major league level defense in CF.
  25. jorgenswest
    I am not confident of either. Keirsey’s wRC+ in the minors is not a match for “good potential offensively”. It might if he were in AAA and 23. You could hope for a big step up. I don’t see it in the glove either. @bean5302 has done the work on this but his range factor numbers are very uninspiring. One or two mediocre seasons might be bad luck but it is throughout his minor leagues. Take a look at AAA the last two years. Austin Martin is getting to significantly more chances than Keirsey. I also didn’t get that impression watching some AAA games on TV. Balls that I thought could be outs were landing in front or to the side. Neither is a good measure or evidence that he is a liability but I don’t think “very dependable” is a fit either. It was clear last year that Martin was not a passable center fielder yet. Keirsey is likely better but the bar for average major league center fielder is very high. Keirsey might be mediocre in that group. Bader is among the best. I think the question is whether that defense is worth devoting a bench spot to a veteran with that one plus skill or go with Martin/Keirsey hoping to get good enough play in CF and a comparable or better bat while spending the resources elsewhere,
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