jorgenswest

I fear that it won’t be a try out if they bring in a vet. I think it will be that vet’s position regardless of how they perform. With Lee, Eeles or Culpepper I am more confident they would use an option and go to one of the other three. They need to bet on the upside of young players next year and risk the downside.

Shortstops are expensive. There are few free agent options. It might take a Christian Vazquez type multiyear contract to land Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I would prefer Lee at SS to begin the 2026 season holding the space for Culpepper. I wish the return for Brock Stewart had been Noah Miller. He would have been a much better fit. They really need a defense first glove behind Lee.

I think he wouldn’t go out of his way to praise. I certainly value it more than my eyes watching. There is so much that goes on with the catcher position that really isn’t measured well. I am reminded that several organizations didn’t think Brian Harper was a catcher. I am also aware that the coming ABS system is going to reprioritize skills needed from a catcher. I would have used these two months to give Gasper time behind the plate over Vazquez. They could have given him 15-20 starts in the last 56 games after the deadline. The chance of success is low but the reward of finding an inexpensive number 2 catcher going into the offseason would be worth that risk. I would risk those starts with the small hope of avoiding another Vazquez like commitment.

Hopeful on Gonzalez. Can’t agree about Topa. He has allowed the highest percent of inherited runners to score. His WPA as a Twin is -1.3. He has pitched best in low leverage. They needed a piece that could put out a fire and handle higher leverage. So far he hasn’t been that piece. I think they should look elsewhere next year. That low leverage mid game role should go to a younger pitcher they are developing.

No one said Pat Murphy either.

Seems like Jax, Varland and Duran were pretty effective in their first full year as a reliever. I need to have hope that the Twins bullpen can turn it around quick. Part of that hope is that some of their excess in starters will be a foundation for a good bullpen 2026. I also don’t think they need to prepare to be relievers in the minors so keeping them starting was a good plan. In Duran’s case he never had a year where he was a failed starter. I think they maximized his use as a reliever. I think the same of Jax. He had one partial season as a major league starter and moved to relief. I think they should have moved Varland to start last year and lost a year. There was reporting that Varland wasn’t ready to give up starting that might have had an impact. I think the bigger impact was the foolish trade for DeSclafani. His unsurprising injury forced them to turn to Varland. I survive on hope and have to hope it isn’t going to take 2-3 years.

I do have a question. I do agree that their ERA is more volatile than a qualified hitters OPS or qualified starter’s ERA. Doesn’t samples size play a big factor here? I am not ready to accept that their talent level is more volatile. I am not even sure how to compare. Do relievers have shorter careers? Maybe. How do you compare? If you are a starting position player is that equivalent to a top three reliever on a team? How many starting second basemen in 2021 are still starters at 2B in 2025? How does that compare to relievers? I don’t know. I am ready to accept that talented relievers are more volatile. In Varland’s case he has one partial season of success as a reliever in a sample size of batters faced that is not near stabilized. There is a good chance he is not going to replicate his performance through 49 innings this season in the next 49. His home run rate was well below his previous career rate as well as his rate in AAA. His BABIP was below his career MLB rate and AAA rate also. Both of those numbers need a pretty large samples and 197 batters faced isn’t close. His change to relief helps as there are starts mixed i. those other years but his strike out rates and walk rates aren’t that different from his career rate where he also had starts mixed in. In Duran’s case he does have a multiple season record of success. I would expect he would remain successful. Jax does also but he has an age issue where players of all positions may begin to decline. Polanco was about the same age as Jax when traded. I thought he had a good chance to be headed towards decline. I think the same about Jax. Hendricks and Pressly were pretty solid through 33 though so the Rays could get two good years. They will be his more expensive arb2/3 seasons. The reliever math is different. It takes multiple seasons to gain enough sample for the stats to be representative of a reliever’s skill level. The Twins should not need stats to assess Varland. Their eyes are a more reliable judge at this sample. If they believe his skill is among the top relievers in baseball they should not have made that trade. That skill should remain. If they believe that the very low home run rate and lower BABIP are not sustainable they were absolutely correct to sell high.

Bradley has a reasonable chance to be the most productive player they acquire in the deal. It could be boom or bust but I see a path where he is their number 3 starter next year or he is matching the performance of Jax from the bullpen.

I hope they don’t go this direction. They need to build a bullpen for next year. That can be done. They need to get a middle of the line up bat. That can be done. They need to make the most of the next two years with Ryan and Lopez. I know I have a bias here. I need them to fight for 2026. Reinvest.

The Correa trade is either an A or F. If they spend the savings to bring in a player from outside the organization it will be an A. If they pocket the savings it is an F.

Is it possible the Correa’s presence and influence was so strong that when he wasn’t playing well he pulled others with him?

The first 40 man hurdle is the rule 5 draft. At that point they could have one catcher on the roster. That 40 man will be pretty out of balance. There could be far too many outfielders and not enough pitchers and catchers relative to how it might look entering spring training. We added Outman, Roden and possibly Mendez to a group that includes Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Martin and McCusker. Add to that possibly Fedko, Rosario and Gonzalez. They won’t have 13 outfielders on the 40 man roster entering spring. Outman and Roden should be considered for a DFA. Mendez may be left unprotected for the rule 5. Even if that happens ten is still too many and I hope Walker pushes somebody else off next spring.

Rojas is a good get. A lefty that is in AAA at 22 with success at a young age. He alone would be worth Varland who at 27 is having a break out season as a reliever. Varland has cut home runs significantly this year. The home run rates need a pretty large sample size. The extraordinarily low home run rates are the reason his xFIP and xERA are both much higher than his actual. Is the 2.02 ERA Varland that the Twins sent to the Blue Jays his real skill or is it random variation due to the small sample of any reliever? Reliever skill isn’t anymore volatile than players at other positions but the numbers make it look that way since their season sample is so small. Topa’s ERA looked like his skill had really improved in his one break out season. It didn’t. His xFIP is actually slightly better than his 2023 season. That ErA was a mirage due to the sample size of a reliever. Time will tell about Varland. As for Roden I think the Blue Jays deadline roster crunch made him soon to be DFA’d and a throw in. The Twins may DFA him this winter if he doesn’t turn it around. It is still a reasonable trade even if Roden is let go. It is hard to get a young and successful lefty starter this close to the majors.

I also looked at how teams utilized their bench in the AL. The Twins are fourth in using a player of the bench behind Chicago, Seattle and Detroit. Their players off the bench are second in OPS behind the Angels who have used their bench the least. They are fifth I. Stolen bases and tied for first in sacrifice hits. I a, not sure how to measure the impact on defense. There are a handful of players used 40 times off the bench. They all bring defense/speed skills and Myles Straw is among the leaders. Keirsey has been utilized 46 times from the bench. That leads the AL. I also looked to see how many players in each team had started over 100 games. The Royals have 5 players playing nearly every game. Most have at least 3. The only team without a player that has started 100 games is the Twins. Trevor Larnach has 96. Next are Correa and France at 91 so the trade deadline was not a factor in them reaching 100.

So far the best stat I can find to see how the team utilized the entire roster is games started and games subbed. I wondered which AL teams had the most players with significant starts. Teams have played about 112 so I cut it in half to 56 and took off 10% to allow for injury/illness and landed in 50. Royce Lewis has 52 and it seems he should be found in that group. The median for the AL is 9 players with 50 or more starts. There are four teams with more than 9 players. Two with 10 players and two with 12 players. The Rays are of the teams with 12 players. That didn’t surprise me. The other is the Twins.

I will make the assumption that two starts a week isn’t enough for development, if you are a young player getting 2 starts a week you are probably better off getting 5 or 6 starts in AAA. That makes me wonder if there are any teams making sure every player routinely gets 3 starts a week. I want to look at that model and roster construction. Is it heavy in platoon? If it is platoon do the left handed bats rarely get opportunities against left handed pitching? Are there a lot of players with positional flexibility? I want to see if it has led to success. In my search it would help if I had the metric “no appearance” so I would have three data points. I need games started, games off bench, and no appearance.

If it were Eeles instead of Fitzgerald I would be in on the development. If development gets a higher priority then the roster needs to match that goal. It doesn’t.

I have watched and am very aware that I have no idea. I remembered the wrong AAA pitcher praising his work behind the plate. It was Ohl after his July 10 performance. My optimism comes from Ohl’s comments. They are much more valuable to me than my eyes watching on TV.

We differ on Fitzgerald. No upside and decline will come soon. I would start Lee almost every game. He may not be a starting shortstop and they will need to fix that this winter. I am only interested in Gasper as a second catcher. Raya had great things to say about him behind the plate earlier this year otherwise I would join you in my skepticism.

@Riverbrian I don’t think I am with you here. He doesn’t control who is on the roster and right now there aren’t 13 players to develop. The four players Fangraphs list on the bench are 28 or over. Vazquez is 35. Fitzgerald at 31. I get that he is on the roster because they traded Correa and Castro and ran out of shortstops. I would rather Lee get every game there. Gasper is nearly 30. If they think they can develop him at catcher I am in. Give him two starts a week. Otherwise I want the opportunities at 1B, 2B and DH to go to others. The next guy on the bench is Keirsey. In the last 6 games he has started 3 and subbed in the other 2. My letter would go to Mr. Falvey or possibly Mr. Pohlad. I would wonder how long Vázquez, Fitzgerald, Ramirez, Tonkin, Topa and Urẽna will be in the roster. As for now I want to maximize the playing time for Martin, Clemens, Lewis, Lee, Roden, Wallner and even Julien. Should Martin, Clemens, Roden and Julien be counted on for a roster spot next year? Can Lee, Lewis and Wallner be counted on the starters next year? Can Gasper be a number 2 catcher?

Early in the week when there were rumors of at least 13 different Twins being moved. I didn’t think it was possible to do a good job of having conversations about that many players. I know the staff is big enough to handle all the calls but each negotiation must take several back and forths. I said then that they should focus on getting the best return for the 6 expiring contracts. Probably didn’t happen. Time to move on. Go Twins.

Nice win. Good use of Keirsey. I like the decision to bunt. Perfect execution by Clemens. Erasmo for the save. Battle on.

Another competitive game. I don’t see any tanking by anyone in the dugout. Deadline day hit me hard but it am not going to waste any more energy on it. It is a new day to battle and the men in the dugout appear to be battling.

If this is what it took to put the Pohlad’s in positions to seek the team I get the plan. They will need to rebuild the relief core but all of the guys they traded were inexpensive additions. They may have a trio of very good relievers among the many young starters. They can add a better bat than Correa’s with the savings in his contract. This plan works if… the team is reported to be sold before the end of the season so the new owners can give Falvey a direction forward the Correa savings are reinvested in the offense for multiple years as opposed to the one year team friendly veteran deals offered to several. That probably is best done by trade. The pitchers and catchers acquired in this deal and meet or exceed their future value. Some of the starters might find their way to late innings in the pen. I see that in Bradley. Does Falvey need to explain? Yes. It doesn’t need to happen though until the Pohlad’s are on their way out and we have new owners waiting on league approval. He is going to have to speak carefully until that deal is done. I am sure the Pohlad’s directed this tear down.

Thanks @Brock Beauchamp Both of these players have a reasonable shot at having a significant career. It doesn’t matter how they arrived on the Twins and whether I like the trade. They are Twins now and Roden is getting an opportunity that he wasn’t getting with the Jays. Maybe in a few years JaysCentre will be wondering how they could let Roden like we wonder about Rooker.