jorgenswest

Concur. The only way to get that top flight prospect is to demand it and not engage in conversations without that prospect.

I enjoyed this read on Madden from the Tampa Bay Times. He certainly has some thoughts on the role of the GM and also the balance of analytics. It is three years old but those beliefs probably have not changed. Would he take an interview with the Twins? It seems unlikely.

McLean is in another tier compared to the others and there is a significant gap between him and the others. The Twins shouldn’t take calls unless a team is starting with a prospect in that tier. I would prefer a position player but that is a preference. Getting a top flight prospect is more important. The call from the Mets has to start with McLean and then they can negotiate for an added position prospect among the FV50s. If McLean is off the table hang up the phone. They can get FV50s a year from now.

He will likely be DFA’d with hope of getting to AAA. His glove is a good one and it keeps him on the fringe of the majors. In his last prospect report it was FV 55/55. It is very difficult to play an average or better major league shortstop and centerfield. He might be able to do both. His OAA over his time in the major leagues support the scouting report. Seems like a good thing to have a depth piece in AAA with a fundamentally solid glove up the middle. Really no risk. Worst case they lose him to another team looking to add depth.

I do wonder about Shelton. The Pirates have ranked in the top ten in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs prospect pools. They ranked fourth when he took over in 2020 with six top ten prospects. Cruz has league average wRC+ but moved off shortstop. Much more was expected from a prospect that peaked at number 7 overall. Hayes (peaked at #14) was given 2500 plate appearances and did not approach a league average hitter before they gave up on him. Keller (peaked at #23) has 163 starts with a career ERA of 4.51 and just one season with an ERA under 4. That’s the good news from the 4th ranked group with six in the top 100 that he inherited. The Twins have added to their prospect pool and need a manager that can help get the best from them. Has Shelton shown that he is that manager?

Good point. Younger debut age correlates to pitchers that land in all star games so maybe more correlation than causation. In any case Bradley, SWR, Festa, Matthews and Raya already have or can debut in the majors in that 22-24 range. That leaves Prielipp who is in that 25 due to injury group. His fit is Ragans. I don’t think relieving this year will keep him from being a starter in the future. It is those 6 starters that I have in mind. They all can’t join Ryan, Lopez and Ober. I think the best route is to keep all 9. If all 9 are among the best 12 then I want to roster them all. I should note that they need to make the top 12 and not 13. That 13th spot should be shuttled between slightly older prospects that have options. Pitchers like Adams, Ohl and Laweryson would fit if they aren’t in the top 12. Sands and Jax were in that role and pitched their way into a permanent spot. They can do the same.

The Twins look to have more major league ready starters than major league quality relievers. I wonder if damage is done by having them relieve at the major league level rather than start in AAA. Quite a while ago many pitchers started as relievers and moved to a starter. I looked to the all star rosters from the last two years to see if any of those starters spent time in the bullpen earlier in their career. Chris Sale pitched his first two seasons as a reliever. Lugo was a reliever for the Mets. Bubic pitcher from relief last year after returning from injury. Crochet began his career as a reliever. Rasmussen was a reliever. Peralta pitched from the pen. Glasnow was put in the pen by the Pirates after struggling as a starter. Lopez had 4 seasons in relief before returning to a starter in 2024, Ranger Suarez began as a reliever. Ragans was a reliever with the Rangers the season he was traded to the Royals. Holmes was a reliever from 2018-2024 prior to his successful season as a starter this year. Houck was a reliever in 2022 and an all star starter in 2024. I will acknowledge that some of these pitchers changed teams before changing roles. It could be it was their first organization that had their minds fixed on that relief role. I am not convinced we are harming careers by having potential young starters pitch from the bullpen. Some of these pitchers even transitioned from reliever to starter midseason. I would start the 2026 season with the 12 best arms even if it means putting a pitcher capable of starting in the bullpen. I don’t believe pitching from a major league bullpen is going to stop these pitchers from being a starter in the future. The only thing that would stop that from happening is if the Twins management gets fixated on their role and not open to moving them to a starter when an opportunity arises. Tagging @Riverbrian here because he often challenges us (myself included) on keeping an open mind and not be so fixated on roles. Maybe this is not what he envisions though.

also Connor Prielipp, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Marco Raya and anyone else they add to the 40. They need to take the best 12 pitchers next year. They shouldn’t worry about keeping a pitcher stretched out. Build up the pitch count with each start.

I have a few wonders… Can we expect a repeat in last year’s performance level given his age? If he does decline and the Twins are on the hook for 2 million how long will we wait until he is released? I also wondered about relief pitchers that signed for 2 million last year. Maton amd Raley were pretty helpful to a bullpen. There are others that were helpful at 2 million or below. 2.25 million more and you get Justin Wilson. There were also signings that didn’t work out often due to injury. One thing in common of all of these signings is older age and often injury history. That fits Topa also. Two million is in line with an aging sometimes injury troubled pitcher. Do the Twins bet on Topa or do they look elesewhere in the pool of aging relievers? One thing that may be in the favor of looking elsewhere is other options will likely have a longer track record of success. One thing in favor of keeping Topa is the Twins should be better able to win the bet on his health than on an aging reliever outside the organization. If they question his ability to stay healthy they should move on.

It is very difficult to play a passable major league first basemen. It takes good hands and feet. It takes quick reactions. It is the same set of tools found in catchers and infielders which creates a bigger pool of players that can play first base than most positions and maybe leads to the erroneous impression that any major leaguer can play there with work. My guess is that Larnach and Wallner worked out at first base in both college and the minors. When Larnach hit AA the Twins used 9 different first basemen. In AAA it was 12 different first basemen. Wallner was on the same AAA team in 2022. They didn’t try him either. I don’t see how there can be any other conclusion other than they worked out there and didn’t have the necessary tools. There was news recently that the Twins were working Hendry Mendez at first base. That’s a good thing. Maybe he will get a chance at 1B in the fall league. If he is never used there can we assume that he doesn’t have the necessary tools? He has spent time in the Brewers and Phillies organization without any time at 1B. Some guys can’t do it. If he doesn’t get time there I am going to assume the Brewers, Phillies and Twins concluded he doesn’t have the tools to play there. I hope you will join me.

Can we all agree that Counsell has made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 seasons including 5 with the Brewers. He has done this in spite of never being a coach or manager previously. Doesn’t that seem pretty relevant to this Hunter discussion?

@Parker Hageman Appreciate your thoughts here. The Lewis part had me recalling Hunter’s first years in the majors. He knows what the shoes of a struggling top prospect feels like. He has been in those shoes. He has shuttled back and forth in his first few trips to the majors. I wonder if that will make a difference in working with players in that part of their baseball journey. This along with all of your thoughts make him a worthwhile candidate. I am in. He will need to find an experienced bench coach. He will need to identify a pitching coach that he trusts and gives full control over pitching decisions. He needs the Brian Flores of pitching coaches. I think this can work.

It is rare. If Rodriguez qualifies it will be injuries as I said earlier. Did he have 90 days of active service in each of his five full season minor league (one will be 2026)? His first season of complex league ball shouldn’t hit the 90 days. If not he will not have had 5 full seasons and be eligible for a 4th option. I guess I have to do a little more work here. In 2022 he had a season ending knee injury on June 8 after playing 47 games. The first day of the season was April 8. Is he credited with 90 or more days of active service that season? I don’t know how active service is calculated. In 2024 he also played 47 games but he was in and out so counting the days and interpretation of active service isn’t ac clear. In 2025 he played 65 games. That might not have hit 90 either. 2022 is the most clear. I think it is 62 days April 8 to June 8. I don’t see how that gets to 90 days of active service. I think Kennys Vargas is the last position player for the Twins getting a 4th option and playing in the majors.

Thanks for the video. I appreciated the insight of the types of players that tend to be kept. I think that has to factor into the Twins decision making. It is very difficult to stash a position player on the roster. How can an outfielder that doesn’t play a major league centerfield be kept unless that player is a starter? Eventually injuries will create a need for that roster spot. It is also hard to take an infielder that doesn’t play a major league shortstop. If a catcher is taken they need to be ready to handle the load of a second catcher. The need for roster spots is a Twin consideration also. Every roster spot given to a player that needs more time in the minors essentially shrinks the 40 man roster. More in season DFAs will result.

Fangraphs couldn’t know if he will qualify for a 4th option. In order to qualify the Twins will need to use an option this year and one of his injured seasons has to be less than 90 days of active service.

Not sure. His first season in the FCL had 51 games. Would he have accrued 90 days of active service? Seems unlikely. Did injuries prevent him from 90 days of active service in any other season? Maybe.

from Google AI In Major League Baseball, a player may be eligible for a fourth option year if they have used their three standard options but have not yet completed five full seasons of professional baseball. This is most common for players who spend time in the lower minor leagues or miss significant playing time due to injury. Who is eligible for a fourth option? A player qualifies for a fourth option year if they meet all of the following conditions: They have used all three of their regular options. They have less than five "full seasons" of professional experience. What counts as a "full season"? For the purpose of the fourth-option rule, a full professional season is defined as any season in which a player accrues at least 90 days of active service on either a major league or minor league roster. Time spent on the injured list can sometimes contribute to the 90-day total, but only after a minimum number of active days are logged. Rookie-level leagues and other short-season minor leagues, which have seasons shorter than 90 days, are often a key reason a player doesn't reach the "five full seasons" threshold and becomes eligible for a fourth option.

I don’t think they saw Outman as a two month rental. They must have seen the risk though. He is a legit centerfielder and as long as he can hit passably he is a good option as the CF on the bench. They have the winter to work with him and get him to that passable level. He has hit in the minors and hit in his full season. It is a risk but there is upside. If he can get his bat into to the Michael Taylor range he will probably have a spot on the bench in the majors. They took the risk and they need to be able to take the loss and move on if doesnt improve his hitting. Rodriguez and Jenkins are coming soon and play centerfield. Outman probably has until they are ready to show he is a passable or better hitter.

The Pirates have had a top 10 ranked prospect pool for several years running. I looked at the last 14 Fangraphs team rankings and they are top 10 in 13 of 14. They are top 5 in many. I have wondered if there is a relationship between prospect ranking and winning. Those strong prospect rankings have not translated to winning for the Pirates.

I will take two seasons and a comp pick from Ryan. I would not move him until the deadline in 2027. I am not going to worry about injury or labor dispute. Teams get 6 years of control of a player. The last three are often better than the first three. Keep him through his prime and then move on.

I don’t know where they are headed. I will pay attention to where they are. No reason to brood about where they are going until they get there.

It really isn’t about happiness. It isn’t about winning the World Series. Each of the 162 games matter next year. Their starting pitching can make many of those games competitive. More competitive if they keep the core, bet on the upside of young position players and identify arms for the bullpen.

I am torn here. I want a competitive team in 2026. My previous take would be to bet on the long term if your a 92 loss team. I would bet on Culpepper and Lee. I would roster Fitzgerald. I would look for the Willi Castro types out there seeking a fresh start. The Twins looked to have opportunity at the time he signed as Correa was a free agent at the time. I think middle infielders needing fresh start would see the opportunity. Sign a few and hope for a Castro. On the other hand if they want to sign Bo Bichette you won’t hear an argument from me.

All seem promising

Seems like it is the same debate we had about Farmer. He was said by some to be easy to tender and trade. The Twins were left stuck with the contract and replacement level performance. Young players were in AAA while he had a roster spot. Perhaps some believe Larnach has excess value beyond the 4.7 million. Is it enough excess value to take the risk that he will be holding a roster spot all year?