jorgenswest

@Road trip and @jmlease1 I appreciate the correction. I looked at the league splits and made an incorrect assumption. The positions where plate appearances from left handed batters outnumbered plate appearances from right handed batters are outfield and first base. At catcher and the other infield positions it isn’t close. There were far more plate appearances from right handed batters than left handed batters. I don’t know why players like Wallner and Larnach happen to bat left handed, throw right handed yet don’t play on the dirt. I was wrong in my assumption for the cause. The observation that the abundant source of left handed at bats is going to come from the outfield and first base is still supported by the league splits of left vs right by position. If the Twins want to find left handed at bats look to corner outfield and first base. note: Clearly switch hitters are ideal but I hope they were excluded from the data. Since it is a split option I think they were excluded. Looking at the totals I believe they were excluded. It would have given the data a skew towards my observation about corner outfielders that I did not want because it would shown an even greater disparity between left handed and right handed at bats for a corner outfielder. I also have a winder that I have not pursued. Is the centerfield position a landing spot for athletic left and left ballplayers?

Left handed batters are most often left handed throwers. That really limits their positional flexibility. If they are athletic they could be a fit in centerfield. If they have good feet and hands they could play on the dirt at first base. The rest are destined to corner outfield and DH. There is good news for them on the other side of the coin. Catchers and infielders other than first base need to throw right handed. More often than not they also hit right handed. @Riverbrian highlighted the value of the left handed batters. The most abundant source for that left handed bat is going to come from the corner outfield positions.

One argument is injury. I sure hope the Twins don’t start making decisions based on the worry of injury. There is no way to build a team if you are trading away players as they begin to reach their peak for fear of injury. Doesn’t it work both ways anyway? Will they get a guarantee that the players they acquire in trade will be injury free? The other argument is peak value. Here is a list of the FV50s from 2022. What is the chance of having an impact player fours years later? Let’s suppose they received two of these players. There are a handful of impact players in there. There are some that will be major league regulars for a while hovering around average play. There are a lot of players that have used up their options and we are still not sure. There are others that just aren’t going to make it. Four Twins are on the list in Martin, Lewis, Winder and Miranda. Would you take a random grab bag of two from that list? If we had to pick the best at that moment we might take Miranda as he was trending up while Martin and Lewis were trending down. Winder was at peak value. Future Twins Jose Salas and Diego Cartaya also made the list. It is possible to hindsight a trade and find a trading partner. I would go with Oakland’s two catchers. Hindsight is so wonderful. If you made it this far take a look at the 45s and 45+s. You can get that a couple of that level player and better at the 2026 deadline like the Twins did getting Martin(50) and Woods Richardson(45) for Berrios. It might be two FV45s by the deadline odpf 2027. You will find some good hindsight picks in there also. I would make a deal with the Twins where I see Ryan, Duran, Woods Richardson, Wallner, Steer, Henriquez, Canterino and Balazovic. Ryan and Duran would be a wonderful hindsight return. The reality of the prospect curve is that there are so many FV45s and FV50s with not much separating the perceived future value of those 252 prospects. Hitting on a deal from the group of 84 FV50s isn’t that different from hitting from the group of 168 FV45s. Maybe that is why the Guardians and Brewers wait. The Marlins didn’t wait and the return for Luzardo already looks dismal as both prospects have dropped in value. They won 79 games last year. I have to believe they are over .500 and contending for a playoff spot a most of the year if they keep Luzardo and his 5.3 fWAR. Now go look at the top 10. It would be hard to miss. Trade Ryan right now and you really need to get a can’t miss guy. Deal Ryan if they can get someone from the top end of the current list. Otherwise wait. There are a lot of misses in there. The key for the Twins is identifying greatness from that large group of good prospects that contains more misses than hits. Identifying that impact players from the large group of good is so much more important than the date of the deal.

I would deal now for a great prospect. I would not deal for multiple good prospects. There is a big difference from a number 50 prospect and someone around number 10. I would guess that in the curve of prospects a number 50 is more similar to number 200 or 250 than number 10. The only way you trade two years of service time is for that elite prospect. The problem is that teams aren’t moving those players anymore. I see a handful of great prospects in positions of need on teams that might be a willing trade partner. Basallo, Miller, McLean, Painter, Lombard and Eldridge. If somehow the Mariners or Tigers are going for it that would add a few more names. If they can’t get one of those players I wait and see if we are sellers at the deadline. I appreciate the Brewers and Guardians organizations. They do trade players before they hit free agency. They don’t trade players this early. The Marlins have traded a few starters with 2 years of service time. I don’t think anyone would say those deals worked out for them. I wouldn’t follow the Marlins example. Let’s follow the Brewers.

There aren’t many examples of teams winning by tearing it down. The curious thing about the Astros tear down and 50s win seasons was the little impact they received from the trades. The only player on their roster that first 50s win season that was on the 2017 roster was Altuve. They probably had better assets to trade than the Twins. Bourne and Pence were an over 5 WAR players at age 28. Rodriguez was a very good starter and Myers was their closer. None of the players they received in those trades were that winning 2017 roster and several were top prospects. The only asset on that 2017 roster that was acquired in trade was Peacock who was a minor piece in a Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter deal and was coming off a season with a 6.01 ERA in AAA. It was to the Astros benefit that the top prospects they acquired in trade failed. How else would they be so bad for three straight seasons? Their failure to get any value from their trades led to picking up elite players in the draft. The Orioles tried the Astros path. They were awful for four seasons. Only Santander (33 games) from that first bad season made it to the playoff seasons. They traded Machado four 5 prospects. One made It. Dean Kremer. He is a helpful piece (4.26 career ERA) but probably not a pitcher that is going to lead you through the playoffs. The rest did not make it. The traded other assets but the only prospect acquired that was on that first playoff roster was Kyle Bradish. The Orioles turned it around by using the four really bad seasons to get top draft picks and not through the prospects acquired in trades. The Twins can trade off Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers. If the returns are good it will probably help them approach .500. If the returns don’t work out maybe they can get that top spot in the draft for several years and be a contender in 2031 or 2032. By then Keaschall might be the only in left. If the Twins want to follow the path of the Astros and Orioles they need to be awful the next three or four seasons. They have a better chance at being awful if they trade poorly. If they hit on a few players it will probably prevent them from getting that string of top draft picks that led to the Orioles and Astros success. To me the 162 matters. I would not advocate for trading three or four seasons of really bad baseball in hopes that they will draft exceedingly well to build a contender. I am keeping the core at least until this deadline. This season matters.

One key to winning deals of trading veterans is bringing in the prospects and spending to maintain the payroll that should go up some every year. The key to winning the Berrios deal was reinvesting his salary in Gray while getting the two prospects. I think this set of trades will be looked at as a loss in the end. If they are not reinvesting the dollars then the prospects need to match the number of high impact seasons they lost from the players they controlled. It won’t be about sum of WAR. Teams win with players having impact seasons and not a bunch of mediocre seasons.

The Tigers were very successful with many bullpen days after the deadline in 2024. To start August they had Skubal and Montero from their starting rotation. Flaherty was traded. Maeda was in the pen. Mize and Olson were injured. That didn’t stop them from a great last two months of the season to make the playoffs. They lengthened the relief outings of Brieske and Holton. They followed with a second pitcher giving them 3 to 5 innings of length. It worked. The key here was they weren’t fixated on the role of a starter followed by a bunch of one inning relievers. Teams have taken notice. The number of bullpen games were on the rise in the 2024 and 2025 playoffs and teams were winning a majority of those games. Can a team use a series of bullpen games to build up one of their relievers to the rotation? I don’t see why that can’t happen. It might not be the best path. It might be better to have some pitchers in your bullpen that have the pitch mix to see the batting order more than once and then utilizing them with two or three days rest in bullpen games. In any case if Abel doesn’t win a job in the rotation I am not sending him to the minors if he is more ready to get major league hitters out than some guys in my pen. When a starter is needed I would begin with bullpen days in that slot and build him up.

If they need a starter it won’t take that long to be stretched out. They can piggy back some paired combo of Abel, Matthews, Prielipp or Festa a few times in the rotation and go with the more successful one by turn after two weeks. If they are among the best 12 I prefer not to waste their pitches in AAA waiting for someone to get hurt. That is no guarantee to work out anyway if the needed date doesn’t sync up with their rotation schedule in AAA. Before someone comments about the 12 I do realize there are 13. Most teams use that spot to shuttle relievers when the bullpen is overworked. I wouldn’t put one of those four in the last spot in the bullpen that is infrequently used waiting for a blow out. They need to win a job in the top 12.

If Festa, Matthews and Abel have better arms than three currently in the bullpen they should be in the bullpen. They can get AAA hitters out. They need work getting major league hitters out.

That is on me. He is a pretty good defensive outfielder. That may be the reason he hasn’t played there much in the minors. It is hard to find good defensive outfielders. He did play there 39 games for Creighton and 11 games in summer. Here is an excerpt scouting report heading into the 2022 draft

As the roster stands now here is a win projection from Fangraphs. They have the Twins at 82-80. A trade of Lopez or Ryan would certainly change that projection.

Every game next year matters to me so there is some reservation not going with the one year plan at first base. I can see a 2027 with Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez. I think that happens with Keaschall at first and Martin at second. I don’t want to delay that transition. In defense of both Clemens and Julien I think they have two things going for them that give some hope and at least worthwhile of a shot before the Keaschall transition takes place. Player generally improve in their first 1500 plate appearances facing major league pitching. Neither is close and should still be growing with more exposure to major league pitching. Of course that growth is a roller coaster of adjustments. I also trust xwOBA to be a better predictor for the future than OPS. Both Clemens and Julien were just above the average xwOBA for a first basemen last year. Maybe one of them steps up and keeps the job. Another option is Roden who is one of their few outfielders who can also play first base. He really hit well in AAA and if there is opportunity at first base he also has a chance to take the position and keep it. Short of trading for a Contreras or signing a guy like Naylor I would rather go with one of them as opposed to the one year vet in his thirties.

I agree on the three but I think they point to different intentions. Firstbase I think this is more a commitment to look for upside from with in as opposed to a short term attempt at a fix. I suppose does show their intention not to make a big commitment. For some reason we are fixated with Clemens as the only option at 1B. There is some reason for optimism that he can produce at a median level for first baseman next year give his xwOBA and statcast contact numbers. He may be the first to get a shot but unlike a one year free agent they won’t be as motivated to stick with him. Roden has played first baseman and has very strong minor league numbers. Julien contact numbers were much closer to 2023 than 2024. Maybe new voices in the clubhouse will clear his head so he can go up to the plate more freely. I can see both Jenkins and Rodriguez ready soon this year. If that happens they can move Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B with Clemens as a really good fit behind them. Since Sano in 2021 they have rotated through one year fixes at 1B. Perhaps they intend to stop that revolving door and find a longer term solution among the players they control. Bullpen Could this be a commitment to the arms of the many starters early in their careers? Abel, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa and Matthews do not need more time pitching against AAA batters. Prielipp probably doesn’t either. Right now there appears to be space for two of them in the rotation. Give Raya a chance to earn a spot in the spring. The intention is next year at this time the bullpen isn’t a need. Ryan and Lopez Moving either will certainly telegraph their intentions. Lopez would be their intention to reduce the payroll over winning and helping to develop their young arms. His return will not be elite. He doesn’t have enough excess value. They would need to wait until the free agents find homes to get the better return. Ryan would show their intention to lose more games this season in the hopes of having a better chance at acquiring a future impact prospect. A player that will transition to the majors this year or next and then put in the work to be all star caliber as they get to their arbitration years. These are all key decisions but they telegraph very different things.

Jenkins and Rodriguez are on the way. They should arrive this year and should have an opportunity to win a job this spring. I don’t want a one year veteran delaying that arrival. Looking down the road for their arrival I wonder if there is any plan to play Martin at 2B and Keaschall at 1B. Clemens would be a good utility fit there with his left handed bat behind them. Culpepper’s eventual arrival could also push Keaschall to 1B. I am all for acquiring an anchor bat in the middle of the lineup that will be the first baseman for multiple years. They aren’t likely to find that among the DFA’s. Short of acquiring that anchor bat I would go with the current roster. In the meantime Roden should be joining the battle for the 1B job. If he hits anywhere near his minor league numbers we will not be talking about first baseman next year. We won’t be talking about 1B next year either if Keaschall lands there and continues to hit.

Alan Roden was a much better hitter than any of these three in the minors. He has played all three spots in the outfield and first base. He is the same age as Rumsfeld. He wasn’t very successful after 40 plate appearances with the Twins. Maybe we should move on. The best fits for a rule 5 pick up is a utility player with speed that can play shortstop or a catcher to compete with Jackson. If there is a first basemen out there with a minor league wRC+ in the Roden range (151, 138, 150 the last three years) they should give him a look.

I am not communicating well. Can the Twins participate in the rule 5 and select a player given that they have a full 40 man roster today? I am well aware that they can still move players. If they open a space before the draft by any means can they participate. That is what we wonder. @rdehring had heard that they would not be able to select a player and wondered if anyone knew for sure. I searched and it is not clear. I think they can still open a space but the search results seemed to conflict.

As for his catching ability I think this is more than upbeat. The skill to be a better than average catcher appears real based on the data. If there was an article about Gasper being an average catcher it had to be hope. I don’t think there is any data to support that. I think the data on Gasper was his OBP in AAA and the hope he would hit enough to be a 1B/DH/2B. I hoped he would be the next Brian Harper but it was just hope.

I wondered if the 40 man is set now for the rule 5 making the Twins ineligible. It seems possible that they might trade Larnach or Julien for an A-Ball prospect or even two on the 40 for one and free up a space on the 40. If that happens before the rule 5 draft would they be eligible? @rdehring responded to me helpfully. Does your response mean that the 40 man isn’t set? Otherwise I am not sure what you intended.

Do they still have time to remove someone? I know they can’t remove anyone they just added to protect them from rule 5. Couldn’t they trade or DFA someone else prior to the draft?

I wonder if MJ Melendez will be non tendered. He was baseball’s worst framer in his rookie season as a catcher but he was respectable throwing out runners and did it well in the minors. Blocking pitches was an issue also. If he was so focused on the framing aspect the blocking and throwing might take a hit also. The Twins need a catcher. Campusano and Melendez were once top catching prospects. Maybe a change of scenery and opportunity will help realize those talents. McGuire was mentioned also. His glove is very solid.

Lopez and Ryan are going to help with the development of the rest of the staff. Their innings are going to matter. They are going to keep the burden off of the pen. Their leadership in the pitching room talking about how to pitch to hitters in an upcoming series is going to be valuable. Catchers are valuable to that room also and they are already losing Vazquez. Trading either will impact the development of our starters and put a burden on a bullpen.

MLBTR created a list of non-tenders candidates including Larnach and Topa. Is there a deal to be made with Larnach for one of these players that might not have a fit on their current team? Can the Twins move him for a catcher or someone for the bullpen?

Some guys respond positively to different leadership. Maybe we will see more of the 2023 version of Julien as well as Lewis. Maybe we will see better from Wallner. We didn’t get their best last year. Last year’s leadership also included Correa who just seemed to bring the team down with him when he struggled. Julien was a different player in September with his .788 OPS. The team looked like it was having more fun playing the game in September. I certainly want to have an open mind to start the season about any of these players who have shown ability.

I don’t think they overvalue. Prior to right sizing the budget they sent prospects for Mahle and Lopez. At some point in 2023 the budget was right sized. The decisions they made since those 2022 trades didn’t overvalue prospects either. You are not overvaluing prospects when you are adding decline phase veterans on team friendly one year deals. I think all teams overhype prospects. It is in their interest to do so. Publications putting out rankings instead of tiers add to the hype. I think value is shown in playing time and until August 1 of last year the Twins were not giving very much time to prearb players. @Riverbrian showed us that deficit with every series. Teams valuing prospects are going to play them. I look forward to seeing that next year.

I don’t think Julien is the back up to Clemens. He may start at first base. He may be the starter at second if Keaschall is injured. If he can win the first base job I can see Clemens on the bench with his ability to play 5 positions pretty well. I think he will either win a starting job in spring training or be moved for little or no return. There is at least some reason for optimism. In the last quarter of the season when he was getting consistent playing time he hit 275/367/377. His exit velocity for the full season was back in his 2023 range as were his barrels and hard hit rates. In the spring he needs to show the bat he had in the last quarter of the season and he should have a job on this team. note: His consistent playing time probably started game 126 and his triple slash from that game was 278/380/344.