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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    At the end of the season it will be interesting to see any shifts in the swing level data as well as the strike out walk data. Until then I am disregarding any partial stats and listening closely to anything Parker has to contribute in his video studies. Thanks Parker.
  2. jorgenswest
    Back to then what... I don’t think the Twins should plan on Gordon being ready opening day next year. I would hope for June 1 giving him two months to show that he has command of the AAA strike zone. Assuming Dozier is moved, I would use Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS the last two months. I guess I would bring up Petit to back them up. An out of the box move would be to play Rosario at 2B and add Wade to play LF.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am biased by watching several Mets games the last two years. I can’t imagine Cabrera anywhere other than 2B at this point. He has no lateral movement so it doesn’t work at 2B either but the shorter throw allows him to play deeper and gives him more time to go side to side. You are right though. Hernandez is a 2B only. Cabrera played shortstop some last year (poorly according to metric). Awful metrics at 2B this year. Bad deal for Phillies but Dozier was not a fit.
  4. jorgenswest
    Any trade of Gibson must improve the 2019 team.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Twins should have been in on the Phillies deal. I think Dozier would have been a better option for them.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think the pitcher was they key for them. He may have had more upside than any other player they were offered for Escobar.
  7. jorgenswest
    Wow! In no way did I suggest that comparing across teams was of any value. I really don’t appreciate that characterization. It is only of value here for those who suggest that Wilson’s poor bat has had a huge impact on the Ywons record. They are 18-17 when Wilson is the catcher. Suppose Garver had 6 of this starts and he was 15-14. Do we really think they would have gone 6-0 in those other games and net 3 wins? Let’s talk specifically yesterday. I don’t think Gibson gets to the 8th inning with Garver catching. His pitch count would likely have been higher. Do the Twins win that game needing to get two clean innings out of a bullpen where Hildenberger wasn’t available? The guy can’t hit. He shouldn’t be on the team next year. He should starting closer to 40% of the games than 47-48%. He isn’t a zero though. He brings value and contributes significantly to preventing runs. He is not the reason the Twins are 5 games below .500 and it would be hard to argue that giving a Garver 6 of this games would have shifted the bottom line at all.
  8. jorgenswest
    Just a result. There’s seems to be a narrative that the Twins poor record is in part due to playing Wilson and that his poor bat has hurt the team a lot more than his defensive contribution. It may be hurting the team but it is hard to find support for that statement in the results. I don’t think we have any tools to measure the real impact of the catcher to preventing runs. Again I appreciate Wilson’s contribution to the team. I think he will have had a lasting impact on Garver, Berrios and Gibson.
  9. jorgenswest
    How much do we expect him to catch? In the same stretch where Garver caught 8 of 16, Perez caught 10 of 16. On the season Perez has started 61.7% of Royal games. He has started 38 of 73 since the injury to Castro. I argue that he should have caught the 5th starter more so he was closer to 60% but I also acknowledge there is a lot to learn at catcher. How much would that shift the record? The Twins record by starting catcher... Castro 7-12 Garver 23-24 Wilson 18-17
  10. jorgenswest
    Does he develop as a hitter if he doesn’t stay in the minor leagues? Maybe his future is that of Butera but he needs time to develop. Give him that time. Does Wilson’s experience in the majors and pitch sequencing have any value? He has been the primary catcher for Berrios and Gibson. Berrios is among the league leaders in fewest pitches per inning. Gibson has taken another step forward. Defense at catcher is so much more than blocking pitches, throwing out runners and framing. It would be really hard to imagine how a catcher with also little experience above A ball could possibly be comparable defensively with Wilson. There isn’t even a way to measure Wilson’s impact on the development of Garver. Wilson will move on after this season but the progress of Garver, Berrios and Gibson will remain.
  11. jorgenswest
    Better when? If they are certain the trade makes them a better team in 2019, I am all in. If not, I would keep Gibson. Too much can happen to prospects whose prime is 4-5 years away.
  12. jorgenswest
    With every trade I find myself thinking if there was a Twin that could have been in that package instead. They can’t match Britton or Hand. I don’t think Rodney would have been preferred in the deals for Familia or Soria. Maybe Pressly would have been preferable to Andriese but probably not Oh. Would Duke have been preferred over Chavez? The one thing the deals tell us is there was an opportunity as well as the players the teams are willing to part with. Have the Twins missed out on any of these opportunities?
  13. jorgenswest
    Looking at his statcast numbers he really isn't that far off last year in his batted ball numbers. His xWOBA was .371 last year and .360 this year. The batted ball results (slash stats) are poor but they are not reliable for future projection at a partial season sample. I think the xWOBA provides a better projection for the future. I would certainly keep him if I can't find a trade partner.
  14. jorgenswest
    Belisle pitched well. He kept hitters off balance and was not hit hard. He was in trouble in his 9th inning as a result of a two singles. The second single was a weak bloop just over the infield. Bad luck for the Twins on the bloop. Bad base running for the Jays on the double play. A single, two strike outs and a lazy fly ball to right field in the 10th. A very good performance. If doesn't mean anything for the rest of the season but he executed his pitches and kept hitters off balance when the Twins desperately needed a few innings.
  15. jorgenswest
    They likely had a plan for his development and Castro was a part of that plan. Wilson was plan B. I wish they had a better plan B but any veteran catcher signing with the Twins knew plan B starts in AAA. I hope and kind of expect we will see Garver starting 4 times a week. He hasn’t been catching Gibson or Berrios very often. When he does that will be a sign of getting the larger workload. In fact he had been catching only Lynn and Idorizzi for a while. This week he caught both Mejia and Santana. The Twins may already be increasing his usage. I hope so.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think he has improved this year. I think he is spending a lot of time outside of games both working on technique and learning the league. The development of a catcher is a slow one.
  17. jorgenswest
    Huge game from Garver, game saving innings from Garver and a big extra innings double from a Dozier lead to nice win. It is great to be able to just sit and enjoy the game of baseball.
  18. jorgenswest
    I saw the trade thought posted by Mike of Lynn for Gray in his news thread. I agree that the Yankees don’t make that move though the Twins can help with salary. How about Gibson for one of their top pitching prospects plus Gray? With Gray they have some talent controlled through 2019 to work with and they have another good arm in the system. There is some non zero likelihood that Gray is better than Gibson next year. He also could be a guy a few pitches from an injury.
  19. jorgenswest
    Astudillo also did not catch in the 4 weeks prior to his first game in the majors. He started mainly at 3B with a few starts in the outfield. Prior to that he was the primary catcher. The Twins have signed a series of fill ins at catcher for Rochester this year in Cameron Rupp, Jordan Pacheco and Juan Graterol. All were added after the Twins staff had a chance to see Astudillo at catcher in the minors for two months. I certainly didn’t expect that he would be catching upon his call up after following Rochester and seeing how they used him. Garver is the hope for next year. There is a huge amount of prep work preparing to catch each game. They can probably increase his workload to 4 games a week but the work he is doing preparing for games and learning the league is an unseen piece that is critical to his development.
  20. jorgenswest
    I will try again. Two scenarios.. 1) They believe Gibson will sustain his performance. In this case they will need to replace that performance for 2019 in trade or free agency. We disagree on how easy it will be to replace a good performing starting pitcher in the winter. I see a risk in entering 2019 without making the winter trade or free agent signing that replaces Gibson. They have control of Gibson. They can’t control the rest. I hope you are correct and finding good starting pitching can be done easily enough. 2) They don’t believe Gibson will sustain his performance. By all means sell high. If they think he will return to his previous level then he can easily be replaced. I am keeping him if I think he will pitch similarly next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
  21. jorgenswest
    Would it be wise to trade Gibson and then go back in the market this winter and hope to trade for someone like Gibson? The possible net gain is not worth the risk that a trade partner can’t be found. They should trade Gibson if they don’t believe he will sustain this performance. They should trade Gibson if they feel they have 5 better starters for the 2019 rotation. Otherwise they should keep him.
  22. jorgenswest
    Nice win. Nice work with full bases by Belisle. Good to see some solid defense and a nice start by Mejia.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am neither excited nor concerned about Gordon. I am confident he will be a starting and contributing major league infielder. The Twins need to be patient and make sure he has demonstrated command of the strike zone in AAA. That will happen though maybe not timed with Dozier’s departure.
  24. jorgenswest
    Sometimes I am not sure if you would prefer for the Twins to win or Dozier to have a game like tonight.
  25. jorgenswest
    Does the return for Familia from the A’s tell us anything about the market for relievers? The Mets received a 26 year old AAA reliever. The A’s need relievers and didn’t call on him though he has a ton of strike outs this year. They also received a 24 year old 3B in high A. His 741 OPS ranks him 8th on his team among regular position players. They also received international money. The Mes could have waited but took this deal. What should the Twins expect for their relievers?
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