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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    We do? Despite a nice 18 inning stretch to end 2021, he was borderline unusable for a large chunk of that season. We can cling to another short stretch of good performance in 2020 where his ERA greatly outperformed his FIP, but to date, his poor performances have countered the good in a limited number of career innings. He was a question mark coming into last season; that hasn't changed post elbow surgery.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Isn't "anything can happen," essentially the same logic you were criticizing? This team finished 78-84, good for 3rd place in the worst division in baseball, and they're running it back with mostly the same roster. There are plenty of questions.
  3. KirbyDome89
    To a point, and then that curve trends downward. Pagan is going to be 32 this season, and he's been abysmal for the last 3 seasons. I agree that the logic of throwing away early season games is "wrong," but expecting, or even hoping for, a vastly different outcome this year seems like a similarly "wrong," bet.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Pagan's time with TB wasn't a "breakout," it was an anomaly. Time to let that one go.... His BB rate during his "turnaround," moved up into May/June territory. Unless we're supposed to believe he'll hold opponents to a mid 500s OPS for the year, the sample in question is the same situation as those early season tightrope acts, i.e. a time bomb waiting to explode.
  5. KirbyDome89
    I think the final number was close enough where nearly every team would've had 4 starters hit that mark assuming an equal split. If Ober is that back end guy that you churn through, a la the bottom of the bullpen, that's fine. He's productive when healthy, he's cheap, and in theory there's always somebody to take his place in that role. 80 innings is roughly 3 months worth of starts and he's cleared that mark once in 4 professional seasons. The fact that there's no telling how, or when, those innings will be available causes the value to tumble further.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Fair enough, I'm not in a hurry to delete starting options. I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to consider handing him a rotation spot, and for that same reason he can't really be relied on as true depth either. It's a weird spot.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Yep, I think the opening day start and overall lack of pitching in the organization raised expectations/hopes to a point where people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Ryan was talked about as a potential back end guy or bullpen piece at the time of the trade. Like you said, struggling against better teams is real, and that's ok, but he didn't show anything last year to suggest those results will dramatically change. If he pushes into that true 3ish range you're talking about (maybe this is all semantics) that's great.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Do you think he's ever going to be consistently healthy enough to give you even 120 innings?
  9. KirbyDome89
    I'm 100% onboard with churning through the bottom of the bullpen internally but you need a group in place that can hold water while you're shuffling. Duran is unquestionably reliable. We can probably include Jax and Thielbar on that list. Lopez, Pagan, and Alcala are all relatively major question marks and that's your middle tier. That leaves 2 spots (maybe 1 depending on what happens with the rotation) to sort through Sands, Megill, Henriquez, ect. Winder, or maybe even Balazovic transition and make an impact, but those won't be quick or easy decisions.
  10. KirbyDome89
    I'm not arguing that the SD version of Joe Ryan is who he is, but if we're going to start cherry picking entire games, or explaining away his worst starts as "well the Dodgers beat up on everybody," from a sample that's 27 games, are we not skewing perception as much, if not more, than if we put too much stock in a bad outing in SD? FWIW, his sample size vs. playoff teams last year was nearly identical to his KC/Detroit SS. Excluding the SD game, he finished with a 5 ERA and a slightly higher FIP against those teams, and that includes some pretty good games against Cleveland. Personally I think Ryan is a 4-5 guy unless he can consistently get guys out with something other than his FB. That's still a huge W for the Twins.
  11. KirbyDome89
    If you're subtracting the worst performances every pitcher is going to look better. If I flipped your logic, and started removing some of his best games against KC and Detroit, because they're two franchises masquerading as Major League teams, I doubt you'd be onboard with the similar approach to truncating the data set. It's no coincidence that 5 of his 6 worst starts came against playoff teams; that's the point being made, he struggled against good teams and feasted on some really bad lineups in his own division. His numbers against playoff teams were abysmal last year. How else to do end up with a mid 3 ERA when you threw 1/3 of your innings at a sub 1 clip? Being pulled early (before having to go through the order a third time) protected Ryan's numbers more than they hurt them. That shouldn't even be a debate. Talking about how extreme Ryan's splits are isn't taking away his good games.
  12. KirbyDome89
    What's sustainable about folding your cards in July? Sure, Ryan for Cruz is a W, no doubt, but it took a last place finish and overall miserable year to provide an opportunity for such a swap to take place. If MN is .500 and holding onto WC hopes Cruz stays put and walks at the end of the year. That's not a reliable approach. I get that nothing with prospects is written in stone, but Enlow and Sands have almost no shot at being a starting pitcher at the big league level. Balazovic needs a dramatic turnaround or he's likely out as a starter as well. Both Winder and Ober have bullpen written all over them due to varying degrees of health and performance concerns. Right now it's Varland and SWR. Prielipp maybe in a couple years if he's healthy/productive, but he has yet to throw a pitch as a professional. Raya is in A ball. Gray, Mahle and Maeda all exit after this season. Lopez follows them the next year. You've already stated that this FO doesn't want to invest years/$$ into SP, why are banking on Mahle being extended?
  13. KirbyDome89
    Ryan, SWR, Martin, and Duran came aboard midseason because the Twins were selling. That's not really a sustainable avenue of acquisition either. No, the farm isn't devoid of talent, but if we're talking about the "pitching pipeline," eh, it's not exactly encouraging. They're almost at a point where they'll have more rotation spots than arms in the next year or two, and that's before injury/ineffectiveness enter the conversation.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Odds that Kyle Farmer outperforms the combination of Marwin/Schoop/Arraez? I actually forgot about Vasquez, but take his career high OPS and stretch it across this entire season in MN, he's 250+ points shy of Garver. Jeffers is 100ish points below Castro in each of his full seasons. C is a bloodbath. Yeah I think the rotation is better as far as depth/upside goes. Gray/Mahle/Lopez can't match Berrios or Odorizzi as far as durability is concerned and Berrios is probably the best of the entire bunch, but if those three guys stay healthy and are productive Ryan + a warm body should be miles ahead of Gibson and Perez. Gray is good for 130ish innings and Mahle is probably about the same unless he's a beacon of health. That leaves roughly 100 innings that need to be covered (Berrios + Odorizzi) which you'd expect Lopez to hit, but he essentially was Dylan Bundy for 2/3 of last season, i.e. pretty damn meh, and he missed half of each of the two full seasons prior to that, so which Pablo Lopez are we getting?
  15. KirbyDome89
    The Twins won 78 games last year. They've added Pablo Lopez, Joey Gallo, and Michael Taylor while subtracting Luis Arraez. Take a peak at just how insane the numbers are for so many members of that 2019 team before arguing that pitching health/effectiveness and defense is going to make up a gap of 20+ games.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Not a huge fan of this move. Buxton played 57 games in CF last year. Even if Taylor is going to start 80ish games in CF assuming a healthier Buxton (a massive assumption) he's not really an insurance policy, he's a part of a platoon. Taylor being in the OF that frequently puts a lot of pressure on Gallo. The floor is low, and pretty fragile from an offensive standpoint.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Amen. I wouldn't be in a hurry to move anybody to the pen at this point. If Balazovic ends up there with the guys you've already mentioned that leaves SWR and maybe Varland as far as the "pipeline," goes? Possibly Prielipp in a few years if everything breaks right for him? Gray, Mahle, and Maeda (admittedly not banking on much from him) are all gone after this year. Lopez follows them the following year barring an extension. That's 3-4 rotation spots with 2-3 prospects and a post TJ Chris Paddack to cover. I don't like that....
  18. KirbyDome89
    Reduced, not gone. The Twins still have a massive advantage playing in the AL Central.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Zero mention of Sano on the IF. Zero mention of Luis Arraez on the IF. Zero mention of Nelson Cruz. 2023 Kepler is the same as 2019 Kepler? Gallo is an upgrade? We're using Garver's 2018 season as the benchmark but talking comparisons regarding the 2019 and 2023 squad? Zero mention of Tyler Duffey in the pen. Rogers, Duffey, and May were better than anybody in this current pen not named Duran. Off the top of my head, those are just the most egregious takes. "As a whole, it’s almost a sweep when it comes to groupings that look better in 2023 than in 2019." This article is so shockingly awful it has to be trolling. Those who frequent TD deserve better content than this. Pull it down....
  20. KirbyDome89
    And how much of that is buoyed by time missed in 2021? The meh stretch I pointed out last year is as long, or longer, than his entire year in 2020 or 2021. Why are those partial seasons not considered poor projectors as well?
  21. KirbyDome89
    It's not much of a truncation; he pitched like a fringe back end guy for 2/3 of last year. He spent large chunks of 2019 and 2021 either injured or ineffective as well. Lopez is probably a better health bet than Archer or Bundy and his upside is clearly higher, but neither of the aforementioned guys cost Luis Arraez; that's going to color how this upgrade is viewed.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Lopez June - October last year essentially was Dylan Bundy.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Because the Mets have zero fear of spending and they were engaged with Correa over a previous offer. Why would they not be the benchmark? I'm not arguing that it isn't. I'm curious why a team that has no limitations wouldn't front load the deal and give themselves and out down the line if Correa was agreeable to such terms.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Sure, but it seems Correa was willing to do a shorter term deal, so why not best MN's AAV? That's what I don't get. You've protected yourself from the long term concerns and we know the luxury tax is an afterthought for NY.
  25. KirbyDome89
    I really want to know what went down with the Mets where they weren't willing to beat this offer from MN. Medical concern? Pride? Spite?
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