Squirrel

Our lineup clearly has issues this season and we have players who succeed at inconsistent intervals.  But if you look at our players and bench and prospects you will find a lineup full of players with over a 100 OPS+ stats.  That means they are above average hitting.  And if we field a lineup of above average hitting players we might score more consistently and more often resulting in more wins.  Here is one way I see we can optimize our lineup and put our best foot forward based on various stats.  for this I am using the following for consideration.  OPS+ (the main stat)  Average, BB, XBH per 10, BB per 10
First let's sort through our starting 9 then figure out a proper batting order.
C  Ryan Jeffers is the better hitter between him and Vazquez with an .804 OPS and 124 OPS+
1B Solano is hitting .773 OPS with a 116 OPS + He probably should be our leadoff hitter with that On Base Percentage of his .379
2B  Edouard Julien .783 OPS and 116 OPS +  he is even with 12 XBH and 13 BB in 127 AB and he has a solid .341 OBP
3B Lewis has a .863 OPS and 137 OPS+ he hits with a high average and decent HRs.  however only 3 BB and 6 XBH in 81 AB so not patient and not quite at the 1 XBH per 10 AB you want to see but kinda small sample size.
SS Kyle Farmer and Correa are pretty interchangeable here right now.  Correa has more HRs and Farmer the higher OBP though not by too much.  Correa is 91 OPS+ but has 28 XBH and 29 BB in 268 AB so he has a slight positive number in these 2 categories which means he just needs to get his batting average up to be a better contributer.
OF  Killeroff in LF with a .763 OPS and 113 OPS+ with a .366 OBP he could hit 2nd since he isnt reaching full power potential yet.
OF Gallo in CF  three true outcome player.  over 60% of his plate appearances end in a HR, BB, or Strike out.  with a .768 OPS and .110 OPS+ He still starts.  
OF Rf is a toss up of Larnarch, Kepler, or Castro.  all are within a few points of each other in OPS Castro has more speed and Kepler has been great with the glove.  OR we could give Walner a chance with his 1.099 OPS and 206 OPS+  while I doubt he would stay hitting at that pace he could hit .750 OPS and be better then the trio in front of him.  
DH Buxton and Polanco are interchangeable as long as Buxton is somewhat hurt.  they both have a 103 and 102 OPS+ at this point.  Though when healthy Buxton can hit.  
so lets configure a lineup from this and see what we think.  Clearly this lineup is a defensive downgrade but much better hitting lineup.
RHB 1b Solano 116 OPS+
LHB 2B Julien 116 OPS +
RHB 3B Lewis 137 OPS +
LHB LF Killeroff 113 OPS +
RHB DH Buxton 103 OPS +
LHB CF Gallo 110 OPS +
RHB SS Correa 91 OPS +
LHB RF Wallner 206 OPS + (SSS)
RHB C Jeffers 124 OPS+
This lineup breaks up the RHB and LHB evenly throughout the lineup.  it also gives us a lineup with everyone but Correa over 100 OPS +.  it puts the high on base percentage guys at the top of the lineup.  power is in the 5-8 lineup slots, and Jeffers has a great on base percentage at this point which helps serve as a line up catalyst at the bottom of the lineup.  I left Correa in to help keep defense as good as possible.  Taylor is ready to be deployed into CF for defense upgrade when needed.  
How would you try to maximize our offense with what we have.  

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

IMG_3131.MOV IMG_3132.MOV  

Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

IMG_3139.MOV
Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

IMG_3144.MOV
I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


IMG_3153.MOV
 
Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

IMG_3160.MOV  
Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

IMG_3165.MOV IMG_3166.MOV IMG_3167.MOV IMG_3168.MOV IMG_3176.MOV IMG_3177.MOV IMG_3178.MOV

IMG_3181.MOV
Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

After consecutive seasons of anticipation and ultimate disappointment, Twins fans find themselves in a position of uncertainty. What direction does S.S. Falvine appear to be heading? What changes await in this direction? Will the vessel come upon a World Series title in its journey? Or will it forever circulate the triangle of mediocrity?
These questions haunted Twins fans throughout the land in the early winter. Uncertainty surrounding the return of star shortstop Carlos Correa raised late autumn trepidation in Twins territory. Exhibited inactivity from Captain Falvey and Captain Levine in the season of advent sparked further discontent and disarray. This pattern of sightings was not unfamiliar to Twins fans, who had witnessed their fair share of underwhelming "impact pitchers," including JA Happ, Homer Bailey, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Matt Shoemaker. Fans slowly rose in arms, and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo hardly appeased the crowd.
In mid-December, all hope appeared lost, as Minnesota's prized shortstop had signed a gargantuan contract with the San Francisco Giants. However, through a remarkable series of unlikely events, Minnesota reclaimed their shortstop, signing him to a long-term contract. Not long after, they acquired starting pitcher Pablo Lopez from the Miami Marlins to significantly improve their starting rotation. Unfortunately, Lopez wasn't without cost. The Twins were forced to part with Reigning American League Batting Champion Luis Arraez.
Minnesota will not only place their faith on the addition of Pablo Lopez, but also on improved health, to improve their starting rotation in 2023. While the addition of Lopez is significant, the Twins will also receive the services of Kenta Maeda in 2023, who had missed eighteen months due to recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Tyler Mahle, who missed the final month of the 2022 season with shoulder injury. A rotation of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda appears promising.
While the starting rotation appears improved, question marks fly high around the starting lineup, which will be without the reigning American League batting champion. They will look to sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa to maintain good health and also to prospects such as Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and others who will see the field again after missing time due to injury.
The season ahead is a pivotal one for both Falvine and manager Rocco Baldelli. The ship has drifted more and more into the incorrect direction over the past two years. If it continues to drift in that direction, Twins fans must seriously question the competence of those managing their team. Can officers Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli pilot the ship out of the triangle of mediocrity? Or is it their fate to never leave?
We will know the answer in November 2023.
cHawk's ("Optimistic Homer") Predictions for 2023:
vs. White Sox: 7-6
vs. Guardians: 7-6
vs. Tigers: 8-5
vs. Royals: 8-5
vs. Orioles: 5-1
vs. Red Sox: 3-4
vs. Rays: 4-2
vs. Blue Jays: 2-4
vs. Yankees: 1-6
vs. Astros: 1-5
vs. Angels: 4-2
vs. Athletics: 5-1
vs. Mariners: 3-4
vs. Rangers: 5-2
vs. Braves: 2-1
vs. Marlins: 2-1
vs. Mets: 1-2
vs. Phillies: 2-1
vs. Nationals: 3-0
vs. Reds: 3-0
vs. Cubs: 2-1
vs. Brewers: 2-2
vs. Pirates: 2-1
vs. Cardinals: 1-2
vs. Diamondbacks: 2-1
vs. Rockies: 3-0
vs. Dodgers: 0-3
vs. Padres: 1-2
vs. Giants: 2-1
Total: 91-71, 1st place in the American League Central Division

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

IMG_3131.MOV IMG_3132.MOV  

Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

IMG_3139.MOV
Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

IMG_3144.MOV
I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


IMG_3153.MOV
 
Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

IMG_3160.MOV  
Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

IMG_3165.MOV IMG_3166.MOV IMG_3167.MOV IMG_3168.MOV IMG_3176.MOV IMG_3177.MOV IMG_3178.MOV

IMG_3181.MOV
Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

IMG_3131.MOV IMG_3132.MOV  

Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

IMG_3139.MOV
Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

IMG_3144.MOV
I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


IMG_3153.MOV
 
Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

IMG_3160.MOV  
Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

IMG_3165.MOV IMG_3166.MOV IMG_3167.MOV IMG_3168.MOV IMG_3176.MOV IMG_3177.MOV IMG_3178.MOV

IMG_3181.MOV
Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

IMG_3131.MOV IMG_3132.MOV  

Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

IMG_3139.MOV
Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

IMG_3144.MOV
I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


IMG_3153.MOV
 
Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

IMG_3160.MOV  
Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

IMG_3165.MOV IMG_3166.MOV IMG_3167.MOV IMG_3168.MOV IMG_3176.MOV IMG_3177.MOV IMG_3178.MOV

IMG_3181.MOV
Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

On December 10th, it was announced that a few Twins had changed their jersey numbers. Trevor Larnach from 13 to 9, Emilio Pagán from 12 to 15, Kyle Farmer from 17 to 12, Bailey Ober from 16 to 17, and Griffin Jax 65 to 22.
This is nothing out of the ordinary; a few players each offseason on any team will request a number change for one reason or another. However, this time, something peculiar happened shortly thereafter.
Joey Gallo was signed less than a week later, and he claimed the 13 number, his number in Texas and New York, which had conveniently been vacated by Larnach. Is this a coincidence? My money is on no; it's incredibly meaningful.
I did exactly what you have come to expect from old Gregg--I've scoured the list of remaining MLB free agents to see what this might mean for the rest of the offseason, and it leaves more questions than answers. Here are my findings:
#9 (Taken by Trevor Larnach)
The only remaining free agent who wears 9 is Dee Strange-Gordon, Nick Gordon's half-brother. Might there be a rift between Larnach and Gordon now that he's preventing his big brother playing for Minnesota? Probably. It's a good thing that Correa is back to try to help keep the locker room intact. Between this and fighting over left field playing time, things could get ugly.
#12 (Vacated by Emilio Pagán; Taken by Kyle Farmer)
Farmer really stepped on Pagán's toes here. It looks like Emilio may have been trying to open the door for Rougned Odor to don a Twins jersey, which makes sense given his history of sucker-punching opponents who homers off his pitchers. Having Odor at second base would definitely help keep Pagán's homerun numbers in check. Watch for a rift between these two teammates as well.
#15 (Taken by Emilio Pagán)
It's been a rough 24 hours in Twins territory with the last two #15 free agents signing elsewhere in Raimel Tapia and Brian Anderson. When will the team finally pull the trigger on the guys they really want?
#16 (Vacated by Bailey Ober)
This was the spot that showed the most promise, though with Trey Mancini coming off the board this week, the remaining pool is thin in Cesar Hernandez and Travis Jankowski. I would bet that the Twins were more in on Mancini than suggested, given that they clearly forced Ober to change numbers to attract him.
#17 (Taken by Bailey Ober)
Ober apparently looked Chris Archer in the eyes and said "This town ain't big enough for two five-and-dives" and took his number, preventing his return. Go get 'em, Bailey!
#22 (Taken by Griffin Jax)
Learned men like me know that there was no shot of the Twins getting Andrew McCutchen with this stunt pulled. Think of the team, Griffin!
This also rains on Jeremy Nygaard's hopes to bring back Miguel Sanó. Surely the big man wouldn't come back if he couldn't get his number back from a relief pitcher. To make matters worse, this also eliminates Robinson Canó from contention. Sure, he switched his number for Roger Clemens in New York, but Jax is no Rocket; he's Air Force, not Space Force.
This also removes Luis Torrens as an option. Sad day for those of you with Luis Torrens on your offseason bingo card.
#65 (Vacated by Griffin Jax)
There isn't even a potential free agent with Griffin's old number. So selfish.

Hello Twins Territory. My name is Jason and I would like to introduce myself. I have been watching the Twins since…well maybe when I was a young boy in 1987. I’m currently living near North Dakota but will be relocating to downtown Minneapolis this week if the closing does not fall through last minute. I don’t need an Alex Colome type April 2021 on this one. I am hoping to do some writing about the Twins here on Twins Daily. Maybe daily, but maybe not. Let’s see how this goes for a bit first. I would enjoy meeting some folks at a game or anywhere else to talk Twins, life, your story, or mine. If you need a 90’s pop culture guy for some trivia somewhere let me know. I am in.
A little about my Twins fandom and some other random thoughts:
The Twins are one of my reasons I decided to relocate to downtown Minneapolis.
I do think Byron Buxton should get days off.
As long as the Twins are in first place, they are not trading Carlos Correa.
Joe Mauer was not overpaid.
I like hockey just as much as baseball. A good high school hockey game is fantastic.
Tom Brunansky was one of my favorites.
Scott Erickson too.
Ron Coomer making an All-Star team with an OPS+ of 82 is a wild ride.
I thought Marty Cordova was going to be very good.
Anyway, until next time.

New to the site, we've added both the active roster and the 40-man roster pages!
These pages will update nightly so they'll always be up-to-date with the current state of the big league club, adding yet another long-term feature I've wanted to see on our baseball sites basically forever. There isn't a lot to say about these pages other than they feature the standard set of player info: name, position, handedness, DoB, etc.
To find these pages, use the hamburger menu at the top right of every page (the three horizontal lines), click "Twins Resources", and then you'll be presented the options for both the roster pages and the team schedule for the season.
As always, if you have suggestions for new features you'd like to see added or improvements to current features, please comment below!

Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
"I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
 
 
* Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue

Let’s say earlier this winter, as you shivered at home and headed out into the dark night of 4:30 p.m. in Minnesota to rev up the snowblower, your mind drifted to baseball and spring training. Sure, there was some CBA uncertainty at the time, but that was a mere specter miles and months off in the distance. You haven’t been able to go to spring training for the last two years, so Spring Training 2022 sounds extra enticing. And Rob Manfred- that confident, seasoned, labor industry-tested lawyer, is unequivocally confident that he will find a way to get the season underway on time. After all, he’s found a way every time! What could possibly go wrong?
Fast forward to *checks watch* right about now, and you find yourself with Fort Myers airfare, lodging, and lots of time on your hands. What are you going to do with it?
Never fear, Melissa the Fort Myers vet is here!
 
Go to the Spring Training Complex Anyway You traveled all the way down there, you might as well pay a visit to the scene of the crime at this point. The Lee County Sports Complex is home to Hammond Stadium, where both the Twins and the Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels of the Single-A Southeast League play, and a number of practice fields. The complex is beautiful and impressive- both Hammond Stadium and the grounds. With the constant hive of activity in the complex, you should be able to to just drive right in and grab parking. The parking lot lanes are all labeled with street signs named after different legendary Twins, so grab your picture by your favorite one. There is some cool artwork on the complex’s buildings and backstops including my favorite, commemorating Kirby Puckett’s walk off homerun in game 6 of the 1991 World Series.

You can also catch some minor league action with some batting practice or bullpens on the adjoining practice fields as well- as we well know, the lockout doesn't apply to *them*. There’s also a Twins Pro Shop located in the front of the stadium. During the off-season when I have visited, I’ve been able to walk into stadium and grab some pictures of the field as well. Everyone I have interacted at the complex have been unbelievably friendly and accommodating. JetBlue Park, the Boston Red Sox’s spring training facility, is located just across town and is also cool to see. It is essentially a mini Fenway Park- green monster and all (but Hammond Stadium is better, for obvious reasons). As a fun fact- Hammond Stadium was modeled after Churchill Downs!

Chug a bunch of juice samples at Sun Harvest Citrus After you stroll around the Twins’ spring training facility, hop over to one of my every trip must-visit places- Sun Harvest Citrus. It is only one mile away from the stadium and thus unsurprisingly a favorite amongst Twins players, according to the employees I’ve talked to there. My favorite part of Sun Harvest is the six kinds of free juice samples. The Strawberry Orange juice is my personal favorite, but of course I have to sample each one. I visited here last in November 2021 and can confirm the juice samples are up and running in their usual non-covid times glory.

I usually always get an ice cream cone here too- I get chocolate, but they have festive Florida flavors like Key Lime and Orange as well. There’s a nice gift shop, areas to sit outside, a small play area, and I always get my picture with the giant orange outside.

My usual chocolate ice cream cone at Sun Harvest Citrus
 

Me and my brother with the giant orange!
Frolic around the town of Fort Myers Beach (and avoid the spring breakers) The town of Fort Myers Beach is a hopping home to a myriad of resorts, shops, restaurants, bars, and of course its namesake beach. Whenever in Fort Myers Beach, I love walking out on the fishing pier, checking out the shops surrounding the times Square area (named after a prominently placed clock in the middle of downtown Fort Myers Beach), and of course spending time on the beach itself. For some beach reading, I'd recommend "One Tough Out" by Rod Carew and "Game Used" by Dick Bremer.
Last time I stayed on Fort Myers Beach, I in particular enjoyed eating at a restaurant called the Salty Crab because we got to eat directly out on the sand on a table illuminated by a single light the waitress clipped onto our umbrella stand. The Island-themed Yucatan Beach Stand was also memorable for me because its bar chairs were all swings! One night we also got some really good Mexican food at Mr. Tequila, located a little off the main strip.
Various companies on the island offer dolphin cruises, during which hopefully some happy, non-captive ocean dolphins will come ride the waves of your boat. There are also deep sea fishing excursions to be had, though this is not my personal cup of tea. My family loves playing Jungle Golf every time we visit the Fort Myers Beach area as well. Beware that spring training time is also spring break time, so Fort Myers Beach will be extra busy. Fort Myers Beach tends to draw a ton of college kids, but also families as well. However, I have always been able to find beach parking on the street or in parking lots no problem. If not, however, you could try parking at Bowditch Point Park, which is a nature preserve at the northern end of Fort Myers Beach.
 
Fort Myers Beach Pier

Times Square, Fort Myers Beach
 

Bar swings at Yucatan Beach Stand 
Go for a stroll at the Six Mile Cyprus Slough Reserve  Located less than three miles from Hammond Stadium, the Six Mile Cyprus Slough Reserve is one of my favorite places to go walking in the area. It features a 1.2 mile boardwalk over a beautiful, wooded wetland. Keep your eyes out for alligators, turtles, otters, and wading birds. Lakes Park is another pretty albeit more developed walking option that I’ve enjoyed visiting too- it features walking and biking trails and a boardwalk over the lake.
Catch some college baseball Fort Myers is home to the Division I Florida Gulf Coast University Eagles. If you have a fever and the only prescription is more baseball, the Eagles play a number of home games during the month of March. The Eagles recently hosted the Gophers on February 23 and unfortunately that resulted in a 13-5 loss for my beloved alma mater. Though not the Twins, sitting outside in the Florida sunshine to watch any sort of baseball sounds pretty dang lovely.
Visit Manatee Park Naples (not right now though) The caveat is that currently, now in early March, the manatees have mostly departed for greener pastures aka the warm water in the gulf. However, if you visit the area during the winter or on the early end of spring training in February, it’s likely manatees will be present in the park. Manatees are warm blooded, docile critters that flock to this park during the winter months of late December, January, and February because the water in the nearby gulf is below 68F- the coldest temperature manatees can be to maintain a safe internal body temperature. A nearby power plant warms the water as a byproduct of its operation, and manatees have figured this out and come to this park as a warm and cozy place of refuge. The park also rents kayaks. Check out the park’s website for recent news regarding sightings before venturing out to see these beautiful, peaceful creatures.
Bop around Sanibel and Captiva Islands Nearby Sanibel and Captiva Islands are well worth a day’s excursion and have some pristine beaches, unique restaurants, and some beautiful houses. My beach takes: The easiest beach parking is at Bowman’s Beach- which has a giant surface lot. The beach itself is lovely white sand and undeveloped. Lighthouse Beach Park has pretty scenery and a lovely, historic lighthouse, but I have found that this beach is crowded and not as nice and sandy as the other ones on the island- lots of sharp shells. Most of the people visiting this beach last time appeared to be here shelling, so it’s worth a stop if you’d like to see the lighthouse or seek out some sea shells (say that five times fast). Captiva Beach is at the very end of Captiva Island. It has a very small parking lot, but I’ve always had luck finding a spot here. Even if you drive to the end of the island and are unable to find a beach parking spot here, it’s still worth the drive to see all the beautiful houses along the way, each of which has its own unique name and sign out front proclaiming it. I've eaten at a bright pink restaurant called the Lazy Flamingo a couple of times- they have two locations on the islands.
 There will likely be long lines of traffic to exit the island if you want to stay for the the sunset, but if you want to get a jump on traffic, you can pull off onto the Sanibel Causeway Beaches and watch the sunset there.

Lighthouse Beach Park, Sanibel
Do some Twins reading or pondering at Lover’s Key State Park If the hustle and bustle of Fort Myer’s Beach isn’t your scene (or even if it is), Lover’s Key State Park is a 15 minute drive to the end of Estero Island from the Times Square area of Fort Myers Beach. It has two miles of untarnished, undeveloped, and beautiful white sand beaches and is surrounded by Florida’s famous mangrove trees. This would be a great place to get away and think about life’s great questions, such as the impact of modern baseball analytics on managerial decisions and the decline of bunting in the MLB.

Reading Dick Bremer's book at Lover's Key!
9. Get a history lesson at Edison Ford Winter Estates
If you're a fan of history like I am, you might like The Edison and Ford Winter Estates in Fort Myers.  it has a historical museum and 21 acre botanical garden alongside the winter homes of Thomas Edison and Henry Ford beside the Caloosahatchee River. I haven't visited the museum since I was a kid, but I remember loving seeing Edison's winter workshop in particular. 
10. Visit Naples (No, not Italy)
Naples is a gorgeous city about 55 minutes or so from Fort Myers. There's a super fancy shopping area called Fifth Avenue South that will be lined with Maseratis and Lamborghinis, the Naples Pier, and some incredible mansions. My family grew up going to nearby Vanderbilt Beach as well. When I visited Naples a few months ago, my best friend and I had a lot of fun driving around town and looking at the houses and walking out on Naples Pier. 
Fifth Avenue South in Naples
 
 

photo courtesy Expedia 
 
Day 3 at the fort. Haven’t ventured to Lee County ballpark yet. Do intend to do so, probably Monday. Thus far have been to the beaches, the pool at the Airbnb, 6 mile slough, has a great meal at the Mucky Duck on Sanibel.
enjoying the escape from the cold of NW Wi.
it’s currently 85 degrees and Sunny
 
day 4: lakes park in the AM, off to the Swimming pool for the PM. Currently 82 and sunny
on deck for the weekend: heading up to Orlando. Universal Studios on Monday, Cape Canaveral Tuesday
Back to the Fort Intending to catch a Dolphin cruise and hang out at the ballpark, hoping to catch some drills or bullpen sessions, hitting off the tees with the minor leaguers.
I’ll try to check back in later.
im missing baseball terribly but still having a great vacation

It’s Thanksgiving week and in that spirit, I’d like to ask our community, “What are you thankful for?”
I’ll start:
I’m thankful for all of you, our Twins Daily community. You give me so much food for thought. You give me an outlet to discuss my passions, my fears, my skepticism. Our community makes Twins fandom great, and I haven’t found another one like it.
I’m thankful for our moderation and community leadership team, we get to work together to help make this site as conducive to robust Twins Fandom discussion as possible.
I’m thankful for our founders/owners who keep the lights on, John, Nick, Seth, Parker & Brock
I’m thankful for our writers who continuously churn out tons of great new content for the front page.
Last, but not least, I’m thankful for our blogs and bloggers who write awesome work. One blog post I’d like to point out as a moderator, was written by one of our moderator/community leadership team written 5 years ago. Posting styles discussing our frustrations about the Twins - In My Opinion - Twins Daily. I encourage our community members (myself included) to try a longer form of writing. What are you interested in? What gets your blood pressure up?
If I took the running theme of my posts, the partial thoughts, frustrated rants, one-off comments and collected them up, I could write something longer form… maybe. I dunno…
 
I’m unsure
 
What I write, might suck, it might unravel as soon as I put it out there. I don’t really know how to write prose. But that’s the power of our community and why I am so thankful for you. We as a community will offer candid feedback, support, encouragement, disagreement, and perspective.
I don’t know if blogging will work for me, or if I have that much to say, but maybe I’ll give it a shot. I encourage you all to do the same.
How about you, what are you thankful for?

For as much as a buzzkill the Twins 2021 season was, Jorge Polanco gave many Twins fans a reason to watch. 
Breaking out in 2019, Polanco hit 22 HRs and drove in 79 RBI with a slash line of .295/.356/.485. Polanco scuffled during the 2020 covid shortened season but was also playing with an ankle injury that required offseason surgery and ultimately a shift to second base.
The ankle clean up and position switch seemed to have paid off as Polanco had a career season in 2021. Overall he finished the season with a .269 AVG and an OPS of .826. Oh, and 33 bombs + 98 RBI. That's good for a WAR of 4.8 according to baseballrefrence. 
One would think now would be a poor time for the Twins to move Jorge Polanco in a trade. The stacked free agent class includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez. Teams looking for a shortstop or second basemen will have plenty of options to chose from.
But at what cost?
Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are 1A and 1B in the class. Both are expected to receive contracts upwards of 260 million. Trevor Story had a down year offensively, but still grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He also is only 28 and teams will convince themselves he returns to form at the plate... 150-175 million sound right? Marcus Semien's fantastic 2021 campaign probably netted him a deal north of 115 million, as he was a top 5 hitter in baseball for much of the season. Javier Baez is a complete toss up for me. He is incredibly streaky at the plate, but got hot during his stint with the Mets and switched his approach at the plate. His ability to move around the diamond defensively and play a solid shortstop, second, and third is still a huge asset. You can't deny the flair and energy he brings to a team as well, star power means tickets... I'd guess a team buys in and pays close to 100 million.  While there are plenty of options teams can go on the open market, none will sign cheap. Aside from potentially Baez, you aren't bringing any of those players in for less than 100 mil, at the minimum. Fortunately, for the teams hesitant to commit that type of money, there is another option.
Jorge Polanco
**Before I'm slandered below for suggesting the Twins should trade their 2021 MVP, consider the facts.**
Contract - Jorge Polanco, currently 27, is signed through 2025 at what is essentially a 4 year 35.5 million dollar contract. When you stack that up against what the market is going to command for the available options, that deal is an absolute bargain. Internal Replacements -  Second Base is really a position of strength for the Twins. Luis Arraez, still only 24 and under team control until 2026, has a career .313 AVG and .374 OBP over 275 games .. Yes, you are missing out on the power, but baseballreference had his 2021 WAR at 3.4, so by no means is it a massive downgrade. He isn't arb. eligible until 2023 as well.. Nick Gordon or the crown jewel in the Berrios deal, Austin Martin, could also be guys that could step into the position at some point next year. State of The Organization - The Twins need to look at this an opportunity to try and expedite the rebuilding process. Reality is 2022 is going to be a lost year, regardless of whether Polanco is on the roster or not. Is 2023 the year? Who knows, a lot will need to go right for the Twins between now and then .. But at that point you've only lost value on a player that will have 2 years remaining on his steal of a contract.  If you are hesitant to put Polanco in the same tier as the players in this upcoming FA class, Since 2019, here's where Polanco stacks up against the top middle infielders. 

That's a 3 year sample size of productivity that puts him square in the discussion offensively as a top tier middle infielder. 
Yes I am aware that some players on the list were injured, but that's apart of the game. Polanco was too.
Who might be interested?
The best fit for Polanco would be an organization that is entering their window to compete for a championship. Given how cheap his contract is, teams would have the ability to sign free agent starting pitching, which typically works out better, than say giving a position player like Javy Baez a 5 year / 100 million dollar deal. That model seems to have paid off for the Astros as well as the Dodgers to some extent.
What teams fit that bill? I highly doubt an organization will trade for Polanco with intentions of playing him at short. So i'll highlight just teams with a second base need, There's a few, here are my favorite options.
The Mariners, who received a 0.3 WAR from the second base position this past year, would be a great trade partner for the Twins. They don't really have a solidified plan at 2nd and on the prospect side it's slim.  Ranked with Baseball Americas top farm system, they have plenty of intriguing pitching prospects to deal from. Emerson Hancock, Matt Brash, George Kirby, and Brandon Williamson all look to be be starters long-term.. (I believe Brash will be the best) .... What about Noelvi Marte? one can dream.
Miami has reportedly been getting pressure from ownership to win now and could be a possibility. This would mean they are comfortable moving Jazz Chisholm from 2nd to Short .. If they are, the Marlins hands down have the most pitching prospect depth to deal from in all of baseball. Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and Jack Eder (though recovering from TJ) all could be in play ... (I'll take Perez of the 4 please).
If the Blue Jays prioritize Robbie Ray over Marcus Semien, count them in as a Polanco fit. Toronto is right in their go for it window and may lean toward having a proven veteran to replace the production rather than banking on a prospect. A package of Orlevis Martinez/Jordan Gorshans and Nate Pearson doesn't sound all too bad. 
__
The Twins have a lot of work to do if they wanna get on back on track in the coming years.. This is all speculation, though I think it certainly is a route the Twins have to at least explore this winter. 
Regardless, of what you want the Twins to do with Polanco, there is no denying he would bring back a haul. That might be the best thing for the Twins sustaining long-term success.
*Also, don't check Baseballtradevalues.com for the prospects I mentioned. It rarely is correct, as most of us learned with the deals that occurred at the deadline. 

We’ve had several threads/articles lately about next season … what you think the 2022 lineup will be, who do we want to sign, what are our positions of most need, will certain players have a place on the team next year. All very good discussions. And not too far in the future, we’ll be having discussions on which prospects should be added to the roster. But before we get to all of those, there are larger looming discussions and decisions regarding the 40-man roster … who stays, who goes. When I thought about doing this thread, I ran into a lot of difficulty exactly how to do this. It seemed easy enough initially … who should the Twins jettison? Well, after thinking about it, a lot, hemming and hawing, trying to learn more about the status of individual players (something I am not well-versed in, I fully admit), and after discussing with others what I wanted to discuss, (thank you @ashbury, @Otto von Ballpark and @Brock Beauchamp), I realized the question might not be ‘who do we jettison’, but rather’ Who should we keep?’ I found the question to be, well, daunting. It’s really a big puzzle when it comes down to it. Time is a precious commodity. You want to maximize the time you have of your best prospects/players, so you don’t want to add them before they are ready, so you can capitalize on their best years; and don’t want to jettison a struggling player too soon, only to see them finally figure it out elsewhere. We’ve been down that road, too. Once a player is added, removing them certainly means losing them, if they have any kind of potential, great or small. You want to make sure you’ve really done your due diligence to determine the value you have. So, this 40-man thing is one to be cautious with. In a recent conversation I had with Brock, he said this: “I think of it this way: about 35 spots of the 40-man are locked down with good prospects or MLB veterans. An org might play fast and loose with those final 3-4 spots but they spend A LOT of effort avoiding tampering with that 35 unless they have confidence in what they’re doing.” So … part one of this discussion … position players on the Twins’ 40-man roster … who should the Twins keep? We won’t see these decisions come to fruition all at once. It will happen gradually. I’m sure the Twins have made some decisions already, but others will ‘hang out’ until which time the Twins either feel they have a better replacement, decide to make trades, need the space for prospect additions, or feel they’ve just reached the ‘end of the road’ with them. So … of the listed players, who would you keep? Discuss any reasoning below.
STATUS PLAYER Options FA FA if outrighted? 28-man Luis Arraez 2 in 2026 (arb eligible 2023) YES 28-man Byron Buxton n/a FA in 2023 YES 28-man Jorge Polanco 0 signed through 2023, club options for 2024 and 2025 YES 28-man Josh Donaldson n/a signed through 2023, club option for 2024 YES 28-man Max Kepler n/a signed through 2023, club options for 2024 YES 28-man Mitch Garver 2 FA in 2024 YES 28-man Miguel Sanó n/a signed through 2022, club option for 2023 YES 28-man Nick Gordon 0   YES 28-man Andrelton Simmons n/a At end of season   28-man Ryan Jeffers 2     28-man Willians Astudillo 1   YES 28-man Jake Cave 1 FA in 2025, arb eligible 2022 YES 28-man Brent Rooker 2               60IL Kyle Garlick 1   YES 60IL Alex Kirilloff 2     10IL Rob Refsnyder 0   YES           40-man Ben Rortvedt 2     40-man Drew Maggi 3   YES 40-man Trevor Larnach 2     40-man Gilberto Celestino 1   YES            
Many thanks to Otto who did this chart for me, and I filled in some of the contract info, and to Brock and Ash for bearing with my endless questions.

After more than one year of inactivity, we are bringing back the Twinternationals! At the begining of 2020, we (Mariana Guzmán and Thiéres Rabelo) decided to create this blog to post texts written by foreign Twins fans, like ourselves. You can read more about our original proposal here. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to keep the idea going due to a number of reasons, including the toll taken on us by the pandemic. Well, we’ll try to change that now!
We’re bringing Twinternationals back to activity — only this time, it won’t be only the two of us. If you are a Twins fan from outside the USA, our blog is open for you. Reach out to one of us on Twitter (@TwinsLatinos and @TwinsBrasil) if you want to have something you wrote featured on our blog! We deal primarily with articles written in our mother tongues, Spanish and Portuguese, but don’t worry if you have a text in another language. We can check that out too, using translating tools.
Help us make the Minnesota Twins known to all the world!

The Wall-Street Journal called him the ‘Ace’...That’s not a bad way to start your olympic debut, even if it is followed up with “and then got traded”. Happens to the best of us. Joe Ryan arrived in Tokyo just in time to find out that he was part of a trade where Nelson Cruz would be going to Tampa Bay and Ryan would be joining the Twins, a week later his team-mate would be joining him. Joe Ryan wasn’t expecting to wake up in Tokyo and get traded, as much as Twins fans probably didn’t realize that they would be losing Nelson Cruz, a beloved member of the Bomba-Squad. Baseball is a business and as a business that may be getting rid of the DH this was a great trade.
When you go to look up Joe Ryan in Google, all you get is “Silver Medal Pitcher” or “Ace Pitcher of Team USA”, these are all good things if you just acquired said pitcher. I had the privilege of being able to see Ryan at a Durham/Tides game early in July and to say that Durham has some of the best pitching MAY be an understatement. That game was intense and the pitchers were on. Joe Ryan along with his long locks of hair carried the team to a win over the Tides with only one walk and one hit. He has a great command at the mound and control that I only wish some of our minor leaguers had. 
Ryan would more than likely be in the majors already had he not had to take 2020 off (luckily he was picked back up). He moved up quickly in 2019 going from single A to double A quickly. In the Olympic game against Japan, he kept them to one run and even though the ultimately lost the game, again Ryan’s command and confidence on the mound kept the game close and within reach.  Japan’s pitcher unfortunately was just as good and shut out the United States. 
With trades, getting players from the Minors is stressful, you never truly know what you are going to get at that time. Even though it took four years after being drafted in 2014, in 2018 when he finally got his chance to play for TB in a summer series, it was all up from there. He is going to be the pitcher we wanted and thought Berrios was going to be for our team. We have been waiting for an ACE and I think that we will be seeing Ryan in the majors sooner rather than later and what a great day that will be!

This post will be about why I am a Twins fan and some memories of the Twins, and a little about me. My name is Levi Hansen, I am 24 years old and I am from Rochester, Minnesota. I went to high school at Mayo High School and graduated in 2016. When I was in high school I knew that after I graduated I wanted to go to college and major in something that involved sports, but I didn’t know exactly what I wanted to go for. My senior year I decided I wanted to go to school and major in Athletic Training, after a couple years of doing this I found out that this wasn’t right for me, so I switched my major to Mass Communications, I graduated from Rochester Community and Technical College for my Associates Degree this last Spring Semester after I was done with my internship. For my internship I did play-by-play for the Yellowjackets at Rochester Community and Technical College men’s and women’s basketball team’s. At first I was really scared to do play-by-play because I am not a huge basketball fan in general, but halfway through the season the Athletic Director at school stopped me in the hallway after one of the games and told me that an assistant coach from one of the team’s really enjoyed listening to my play-by-play announcing, but the one thing I could change is to say the player’s names more instead of saying the jersey number. At the end of season I was really mad because I think I improved a lot throughout the season and I didn’t want the season to end.
I think I got the love of sports, mostly baseball and football from my father, both my parents are from Trempealeau, Wisconsin, my dad grew up a huge Vikings fan, and when my mom was pregnant with me my dad would read the sports section of the newspaper to my mom’s growing stomach. I like to thank my dad for doing that because I love my Minnesota Twins no matter if they are one of the best teams in the regular season and sadly 0-18 in the last 18 playoff games, or if they are having a disappointing season like they are having this season. Ever since I was in Kindergarten my dad would ask myself, along with my younger brother and sister if we wanted to play youth sports, I played baseball, football, from Kindergarten thru my freshman year of high school and I wrestled from Kindergarten thru my 8th grade year, I truly miss playing all these sports. I also did Boy Scouts for a couple years and they would do a fun night at the Metrodome watching the Twins game and have some fun activities and at the end of the night the Boy Scouts could sleep on the turf. Those times were very fun.
All good things come to an end. I decided I didn’t want to play football anymore after my freshman year, and I wasn’t good enough to make the high school team my freshman year, the players wanted me to stay and be the student manager my Sophomore year, I knew this was an easy choice I ended up managing the baseball team my sophomore year through my senior year for the baseball team and I ended up managing the football team my senior year both of them were so much fun being around a good group of guys and some good coaches. A little story. The Twins drafted Bradley Mathiowetz in the 2014 draft in one of the later rounds. Bradley was a couple years older than me in high school. I thought that was pretty cool that I went to high school and knew a Twins draftee either  though he ended up not signing. Bradley ended up being Mr. Baseball for Minnesota in 2014, Bradley was a treat to watch it seemed he hit a home run every at bat and he was a pretty great defensive catcher as well.
Over my 24 years of being a Twins fan, there have been several good players, however my favorite Twins fan of all time is power hitting, gods defensive first basemen Justin Morneau. I think Justin could’ve been in the Hall Of Fame if it wasn’t for all the concussions he suffered while playing the game tough. Justin ended his playing career with 1,545 games played, 5,699 at- bats, 247 Home Runs with a .281 Batting Average, those are pretty good career numbers if you ask me. There was a time I got to meet Justin Morneau at the Metrodome. Years ago there was a reading contest through Cub Foods and people had to read a certain number of minutes to meet Justin, I completed the assignment not because I love to read (I only like to read sports books.) It was because I wanted to meet my favorite player. I remember going through the line as a little kid telling him he was my favorite player it was very fun meeting my favorite player. 
The year 2020 was a very sad year with COVID making the world a not so very fun place to live. Spring Training was cut short because of it. When I heard there might not be baseball played last year I felt sick to my stomach and didn’t know what to do in my free time. When there wasn’t any baseball I found some fun baseball podcasts to listen to, I really enjoy Nash Walker’s podcasts and really like Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes’s podcasts both podcasts are a treat to listen to, another podcast I love listening to are Twins Daily offseason podcasts. If there is ever a time that I could join a Twins Daily offseason podcast it would be so fun. I like listening to the podcasts because I just really like listening to people’s takes on my favorite sports team, most of their takes I agree with but, some I don’t. I wanted to pick up my blog I took a break off from writing on Twins Daily, but a couple months ago I stated blogging again. I love to blog on Twins Daily because I can write whatever comes to mind about the Twins, and people can comment on posts. When I found out there was going to be baseball, but only 60 games, without any fans I was really happy that ”America’s Favorite Pastime” was coming back. Other Twins fans can follow me on Twitter my handle is LeviHansen11
Hopefully you guys like this post. My next post will be about the trades the Twins made at the trade deadline and if I like them or not. 
 
 

Before we look into our crystal balls post-deadline, a quick review of what's just transpired might be in order.  First, we lost our best hitter and best pitcher.  For this very reason, chances are this season is going to get even worse.  Three of our new starters will likely be Ober, Jax and Barnes, none of whom figures to be better than a #5 starter.  The bullpen has arguably gotten worse without Rogers and Robles.  And the offense will likely continue to be erratic -  some big run production outings against below average pitching, but more likely low run production against even average pitching.  And with a very difficult August schedule, the likelihood of the Twins climbing out of the cellar looks mighty slim.
But let's look at the bright side.  The Twins prospect depth greatly improved.  We've added at least 3 top 10 prospects, probably catapulting our depleted, injury-stricken minor league system into the top ten in MLB, at least on paper anyway.  And just as importantly, we kept several players who can be building blocks going forward.  You cannot underestimate the importance of Maeda and Pineda, solid #2 and #3 starters in leading a reenergized rotation in 2021.  Nor can you ignore the importance of having a Donaldson and hopefully healthy Buxton leading the offense next year.  Which brings me to my first point :  they need to resign both Pineda and Buxton if this team has any chance of jumping into contention in 2023.   This team will likely not be a playoff contender next year but for them to bounce back to at least a .500 record and set the stage for contention in 2023, these 4 players must be kept..
Continuing on the bright side, this FO did a great job in the trade department.  They received at least 3-4 players who should be playing in the big leagues as soon as next year, but most likely by 2023.  The rotation's future looks much brighter with guys like Joe Ryan and SWR, not to mention our top prospects, Winder and Balozavic, should yield one or two rotation mainstays by 2023.  Which brings me to point#2:  Sign a FA with ace potential this offseason.  My first choice is Syndergaard who should be more affordable due to injury but still young enough to lead a contending staff.  He should be an offseason priority.  This is a risk but one well worth taking if the team is committed to rebounding quickly.  The new additions will also mitigate against rushing some of our younger prospects and perhaps switching some to relievers.
Which brings me to the bullpen.  We added some middling prospects, one of whom might prove valuable in the pen.  We still have Rogers, Duffy and Thielbar, with a few minor leaguers on the verge.  Let;s bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton, and Moran and see how they do.  Coulombe has looked decent.  Point #3:  they must spend the $ for a top FA reliever.  Any suggestions?  I'm at a loss here.  And let's try to get Alcala straightened out at AAA now, as well as transitioning Duran to the pen.  This is still a dumpster fire but at least it can't get much worse than it is now.
So count me as positive for the retool.  It sure beats a long rebuild!!

Welcome to the latest entry into my Tips & Tricks series! In this brief post, I’ll quickly run through another new-to-us feature, “Following”. This will allow you to track and follow the content of people and content you like throughout the Twins Daily website.
Essentially, there are three aspects to following on Twins Daily: following categories, following content, and following individuals. I’ll run through each aspect and how each can be useful to you and improve how you find your favorite content on Twins Daily.
Following Individuals
There are probably some contributors and forum users you like better than the rest, individuals whose content you know is going to be quality so you don’t want to miss it. Following a person on Twins Daily is easy, just click on their username or avatar and visit their profile page. Near the top of the page, you will see a “Follow Member” button. Click that, specify the parameters of your follow and whether you’d like to follow anonymously, and that’s it! You will now be notified whenever this user creates new content anywhere on the site!

NOTE: You should set your notification settings to specify how you’d like to receive information about new and updated content. You can change your notification settings from your user options screen or by clicking the link earlier in this paragraph. Scroll down to the “Followed Content” option and selecting your settings.
Following Categories
You can follow groups of content in Twins Daily, as well. Are you a minor league specialist? Then consider following the minor league news category. Maybe you want to catch all Twins news content, you can do the same. Just visit the category or forum page and somewhere near the top of the page, you will see a “Follow” button. Click that, specify your preferred options, and you will be notified of all content that is added to that category or forum. This also works for blogs if you want to follow the blog entries of your favorite Twins Daily writers, just pop over to their main blog page and search for the “Follow” button.
Following Content
This is the most granular of the following options on Twins Daily. You can follow specific content you see on the site. If you like an article and its resulting comments, follow that article and you will be updated as new comments are added. The same applies to forum threads or individual blog entries, just look for the “Follow” button near the top of the page.
In the settings link I provided above, you can set to automatically follow content you create and content you participate in. If you’re a regular forum user or news story commenter, these are really useful functions to stay abreast of an interesting conversation and any replies you received to your own content.
That’s about it! I highly recommend everyone consider using the follow function on Twins Daily, as it’s just one more tool at your disposal to curate the site to fit your personal preferences.
And if you’re enjoying the new achievements system, there may be special badges to unlock by following content and other Twins Daily users…

Over a 7-year career ending in 1979, Twins DH Craig Kusick came to the plate 1461 times, compiling an unremarkable slash line of .235/.342/.392. Kusick may have had a briefer stay in the bigs, however,  if it was not for his uncanny ability to hit Frank Tanana of the California Angels  who was the most intimidating strikeout pitcher in the American League not named Nolan Ryan or Vida Blue. 
Kusick ended up facing Tanana more than any other pitcher over his career – 59 times - which was about 4% of all his plate appearances. In those at-bats, Kusick went  16 for 42 (.381) drawing a Bonds-like 16 walks for a .542 on-base percentage. He also took Tanana deep 4 times in those 42 at-bats and drove in 11 runs.  Three of those home runs came in consecutive games against Tanana in 1976, after which Tanana walked Kusick 7 times in the next 5 times they met – twice intentionally.
While Kusick was certainly not a Twins great, his inextricable linking to Tanana suggests an interesting related topic. Thanks to the Batter-vs-Pitcher data on Baseball Reference we can now ask and answer who were the opposing players Twins greats faced the most and who owned whom?
* * * * * * * * * 
For the first "Who Owned Whom?" we look at a recent Twins great, Joe Mauer.
Over his 15-year career, Mauer played in 1858 games and had 7960 plate appearances. He batted .306, had an on-base average of .388, slugged .439 with 143 home runs, scored 1018 runs and drove in 939. His most frequent opposing pitcher over his career was none other than Detroit’s Justin Verlander who faced off against Joe in 97 plate appearances. Verlander, who has a career .228 batting average-against and OPS-against of .652, was definitely "owned" by Mauer as Joe finished with a slash line of .317/.423/.537 on 26 for 82 hitting with 15 walks. The 26 hits are the most by Mauer against any pitcher and the first one came in his first at-bat against Verlander in the second game of a Saturday double header versus Detroit on July 23rd, 2005 as Joe hit an 0-2 pitch deep to left field in Detroit for an RBI double.
The other pitchers Joe faced frequently were Rick Porcello –who fared better than his Tigers teammate - (75 plate appearances, .243/.293/.329) and the unfortunate John Danks of the White Sox.  (71 plate appearances, .381/.451/.476) Coincidentally (or not), Danks is the only pitcher to have beaned Mauer more than once. CC Sabathia is the pitcher that struck Joe out the most   -17 Ks in 52 plate appearances - and, along with another lefty, Mark Buehrle,  most “owned” Joe.  Joe only managed  .196/.269/.239 against Sabathia and .197/209/.303 against Buehrle.
Sabathia was also the first pitcher Mauer faced in the big leagues in his debut versus Cleveland in the Season Opener at the Metrodome on April 5th, 2004. Mauer, batting 8th, walked on 4 pitches against Sabathia in the 3rd and struck out swinging on a full count in the 5th. Sabathia pitched through the 7th and left with a 4-0 lead. The Twins rallied to tie the game, 4-4, in the 8th inning and Mauer's first big league hit would come on a single to center off Rafael Betancourt leading off the 9th. The game went to extra innings and Mauer got his second hit on a one-out, one-on single to right in the 11th off Chad Durbin, moving Nick Punto (running for Matt LeCroy who had walked) to third. After a Christian Guzman strikeout, Shannon Stewart lifted a Durbin fly ball deep to LF for a game-winning 3-run homer, bringing in Mauer and Punto and blowing 49,584 Metrodome fans from the exits hoarse and happy. What a memorable game to start a career!
Watch for another installment of "Who Owned Whom" coming soon.

The conversation on this site as of late has been centered around should we trade player X, should we keep player Y, etc.
We don’t have much else to talk about.
If we are talking about trading assets, especially ones that are controllable and add value to your club next year and beyond, it raises the question – are you re-tooling or are you re-building?
Now I know that a lot of people might say its too early to even think about what next years team might look like, it might be. But if your argument is “re-tool” then we need to look at what that might look like.
We all are aware that Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are set to become free agents following next season.
Contract extensions for both Buxton and Berrios seems incredibly unlikely at this point. Both players have their flaws but are absolutely pieces you can build around. Taylor Rogers is one of the best relievers in the game, but is set to become a free agent, is going on age 32, and the front office has never paid more than 6.5 million for a reliever aside from two occasions (Reed and Colome)
But throw all that out the window.
 What if they decide to give next year a go with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers?
What does a retool look like?  
I am ignoring the return that the pending free agents might be able to get you at the upcoming deadline, mostly because It’s not a given that can contribute next year. It could be a few low A prospects for all we know.
I will also be using John Bonnes’s article on how much the Twins might have to potentially spend next year, that you can read here, as reference for my spending – 45 million dollars.
The lineup, bench, and pitching staff I have put together is just a projection and very well could be different then what the Twins or you think it might look like. Please don’t roast me too harshly in the comments.
 
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
 
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirilloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
 
DH
Andrelton Simmons SS
Nelson Cruz DH
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Miguel Sano
1st/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
José Berríos
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
 
SP
 
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
Michael Pineda
JA Happ
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
 
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
 
Mid
 
Mid
 
Long
Alex Colome
Hansel Robles
 
Here are the holes the Twins are going to need to fill entering 2022 season.
Shortstop Designated Hitter Starter x2 Bullpen x4 __________
I am spending most of my 45 million dollar budget I have available on the rotation, as I view that as the biggest need the Twins have if they hope to compete in 2022. So, forgive me for slightly skimming over DH and Shortstop.
Let’s start with how the Twins can round out the empty spots in the rotation and bullpen with what they presently have in the organization and who they could potentially add from outside the organization.
Internal Options
Name
AGE
LVL
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Jhoan Duran *
23
AAA
5.06
4
0-3
16.0
22
13
Josh Winder
24
AAA
1.94
11
4-0
60.1
73
12
Jordan Balazovic
22
AA
4.44
6
1-1
24.1
33
8
Matt Canterino *
23
A+
1.00
4
1-0
18.0
35
3
Blayne Enlow *
22
A+
1.84
3
1-1
14.1
23
6
These are the Twins top 5 pitching prospects
Duran is currently on the shelf with elbow soreness, something you never want to hear. The Twins shut him down for 6 weeks and we have 4 weeks remaining. To this point control has been a huge issue at AAA for him. Josh Winder has been fantastic. One of the lone bright spots for the Twins pitching prospects this season and I think you could expect him to contribute on some level in 2022. Balazovic has only made 6 starts this season working back from injury. Currently at AA, he has yet to make it through 6ip in any start this season. Canterino has not pitched since May but was having a great year at A+. I have not seen any reports on what a timetable looks like for his return. Enlow was off to a great start as well, but elbow soreness led to Tommy John so he’s out for the foreseeable future.
It is only July, so things can change. But the top pitching prospects the Twins have are all dealing with stunted development timelines due to injuries. Duran is not coming back till August and has the dreaded elbow soreness so who knows what that means long term. He has not pitched more than 16 innings at AAA. Balazovic is still at AA and has only thrown 24 innings. Canterino has not pitched since May and Enlow is done for 2022 and 2023.
Josh Winder is the only prospect you have of the 5 that has pitched well above the AA level in 2021.
That's 1/5 of your top 5 pitching prospects you can truly count on to make some sort of impact in 2022 for the Twins. I do want to say that I believe in this group a lot, I think they all will be assets the Twins can count on for years to come. But is that in 2022? Don’t bank on it.
 
Name
AGE
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Lewis Thrope
25
5.59
6 (23g)
0-2
14.0
46
24
Devin Smeltzer
25
4.26
7 (19g)
4-2
69.2
56
18
Griffin Jax
26
8.66
1 (5g)
1-1
17.2
14
8
Randy Dobnak
26
4.85
20 (32g)
9-11
118.2
75
30
"candidates"
This was worse than I thought. Not really prospects, more so “candidates” to fill out spots for the 2022 Twins pitching staff. Anyways, I just went with their career numbers because all 4 players have been hurt throughout the 2021 season. I don’t even want to write out the numbers they have posted thus far, it’s painful.
If you confidently think one of these guys will help you win games during the 2022 season, I’d love to hear why in the comments below. Anyways, moving on.
 
Here is a look at what the Twins could bring in from outside the organization for pitching help.
External Options
The old fellas (37+)
Max Scherzer Zach Greinke Justin Verlander Charlie Morton Highly, highly doubt any of these guys have interest in signing with the Twins. Aside from Scherzer, do you want the Twins to make a run at them? Pass, and they all say no thanks too.
Tier 1
Lance Lynn Marcus Stroman Kevin Gausman Carlos Rondon Tier 1 does not make much sense to me. None of them are better than Berrios and if you are not going to pay him the 5 / 115mil we all expect him to get, why would you pay Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman somewhere in the range of 5 / 90mil? I think the sox can and will retain both Rondon and Lynn as well.
Tier 2
Jon Gray Michael Pineda Robbie Ray Martin Perez Danny Duffy Zach Davies Not super inspiring. Jon Gray and Robbie Ray are probably the most appealing options. Pineda’s recent arm injury puts things up in the air for his future.
We can skip the Martin Perez option as I cannot imagine the Twins getting back into that.
Danny Duffy would be nice, but do you really want to commit something like 3 / 40mil to a guy going on 35?
Tier 3
Noah Syndergaard Chris Archer Corey Kluber None of them are currently healthy, nor have they been the past 2 years. Syndergaard is interesting but even he is a question mark going into next year as he’s on the IL right now after issues following TJ.
Trade Targets?
German Marquez John Means Zach Gallen The Rockies, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are all rebuilding. They are not moving assets for someone like Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco. So, what can you offer up?
Royce Lewis? Then your selling low on your best prospect. Balazovic or Duran? Welp, that would be, um, something when your desperate for pitching. Arraez? Jose Miranda? One of Jeffers / Garver? Not sure that moves the needle, nor are they prospects teams would covet…. After that, nothing is getting you a Marquez, Means, or Gallen.
Now how about one of Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff for pitching? It is an interesting idea and could dramatically change the Twins long term question mark at the position. You would have to be really sold on Max Kepler bouncing back.
_____
Let’s fill out the rotation with 2 players from each tier 1 & 2 of starting pitchers.
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon Gray/ /Ray/ /Duffy Ok that realistically will command something in the range of 28 million. Take your pick of who that may be.
I do want to point this out, you are not going to be able to sign anyone from Tier 1 to a 1-year deal. You will have to sign them to multiyear commitments with real money involved.
Even Tier 2, id imagine most players will take no less than 2-year deals.
You could sign 3 players from tier 2. Go a similar direction as they have in the past bargain shopping (Happ, Lynn, Shoemaker, etc.)
Though that has not really worked out, so I am switching things up in my scenario.
_____
As for the bullpen. It is anyone’s best guess. They are not signing Craig Kimbrel and after that its just a bunch of names to be quite honest. You can check out the list here.
______
For the sake of the “re-tool” argument
I am committing 3 million to signing 2 no name relievers like the front office has done every year.
We have now committed something in the ballpark of 31 million to revamp the pitching staff, with 2 new starters and 2 no name relievers (it’s anyone’s guess).
_______
They now have 14 million remaining to fill the holes at Shortstop and DH.
Designated Hitter
The Designated Hitter class, surprise, is also poor.
Nelson Cruz is going to probably be too expensive and may even retire. Id love him back though. But we have more pressing needs.
After that, we can choose between Jorge Soler or Khris Davis. But why sign either of those guys when you have Miguel Sano on the roster?
Brent Rooker? You could let em duke it out in Spring Training.
Lets scratch signing a DH.
_____
Shortstop
On to Shortstop. They could move Jorge Polanco from 2nd base back to short and slide Luis Arraez in at 2nd. But I am not sure they want that defensive plan up the middle again.
Nick Gordon, who was drafted as a shortstop, does not seem to be viewed as shortstop anymore. Other than Royce Lewis, who has question marks already staying at short long-term, has never played above AA, and coming off an ACL injury, the Twins lack internal options.
We do not have the money to sign one of the crown jewels of the class so you can forget about Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Brandon Crawford.
I do think Javier Baez is a notch below those guys and he probably would be open to a shorter-term deal. Maybe something like 1 / 14 mil? He has a .282 OBP to this point, though slugging .778. It will be interesting to see what the market is for him.
The 2nd Tier in the SS class consists of Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias.
As for trade options, Dansby Swanson could be available if the Braves decide to go after a big name. Other than that, I do not see a ton being available or frankly anything that intriguing.
I am rolling with Javy Baez on the 1yr / 14 mil deal. Twins get lucky, sign Berrios’s brother in-law, and see how it plays out. It is a nice bridge while we wait for Royce Lewis.
______
We have run through the options, lets look at what we got to compete in 2022.
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
Javier Baez
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirlloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
Miguel Sano
DH
 
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Jose Miranda
3rd/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
Jose Berrios
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon
SP
Gray/Ray/Duffy
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
No Name #1
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
No Name #2
Mid
Randy Dobnak
Mid
Devin Smeltzer
Long
 
Again, this is in no way what the Twins are going to do, merely an idea of what a “re-tool” might look like. So, before you rip me in the comments for signing the wrong guys or not doing what you think they should or should not do, this exercise gives you a glimpse into the options the Twins have both internally and externally to build a competitive team in 2022 for one last run with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers all together.
So now you can ask yourself the questions that matter.
Does that team win the central? Does it win a wild card berth? Are you putting the organization in the best possible to position to compete with the White Sox the next 4-5 years? Do we have a pipeline of pitching prospects we are confident in? I think that this team can be competitive. 85-88 wins? thats barring everyone being healthy. This is all hinging on Polanco continuing to swing the bat well, Kepler being more consistent, Maeda returning somewhat to his old self, Bailey Ober continuing to pitch as well as he has, Thielbar, Duffey, and Alcala continue being trusted options, etc.
There's a lot of question marks. My concerns mainly start with depth of the minor league system, specifically pitching.
Where do they stand with Berrios and Buxton on extensions? If I'm either player, im a year away from free agency, why would I take an extension now? If you sign the players to help you compete in 2022, do you even have enough money left to try and pay them?
At the end of the day the front office’s job is to do what’s best for the organization. The last thing any GM wants to do is plays catch up because they were not proactive. If you have doubts about any of those questions you need to shift your focus to 2023 and beyond.
That might mean moving Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers at the deadline.
Which is a hard pill to swallow for some fans, but it is the smart thing and the right thing to do.

Critique of a front office is easy to make in the midst of a deeply disappointing season. While many fans are languishing over the incoming July trade deadline, I've heard a lot of complaints about the lack of waiver claims made this season by the Minnesota Twins.
Why are the Twins continuing to trot out the likes of Colomé, Happ, and (formerly) Shoemaker, when the front office can claim replacement-level players from other teams for essentially nothing? 
The outright waiver transaction process is a deeply complicated one. Whenever a team wants to remove a player that is already on the 40-man roster, that player must first be offered to each of the other 29 major league teams. If another team claims that player, the player goes on that new team's 40-man roster. The full definition from MLB can be found here. 
Because I'm insane, and this season is awful, I decided to compile a list of every player that the Falvey/Levine front office has claimed from other organizations, in addition to players they've lost via waiver claims.
How have they fared in the waiver claim game?  Should they pick up the pace, now that they have nothing to lose? Do these claims actually amount to anything?
These questions are important... but so is the trip down memory lane, once you read some of these names. 
Players Acquired Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Claimed Position Team Claimed From fWAR in Minnesota 2/6/2017 Ehire Adrianza UTL IF San Francisco Giants 2.1 5/10/2017 Adam Wilk LHP New York Mets -0.2 6/7/2017 Chris Heston RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0 3/24/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 4/26/2018 David Hale RHP New York Yankees -0.2 5/28/2018 Taylor Motter UTL Seattle Mariners -0.3 8/3/2018 Johnny Field RF Cleveland Indians 0.1 8/3/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Cleveland Indians 0.2 10/31/2018 Michael Reed CF Atlanta Braves - 11/26/2018 C.J. Cron 1B Tampa Bay Rays 0.3 10/29/2019 Matt Wisler RHP Seattle Mariners 0.6 10/30/2020 Ian Gibault RHP Texas Rangers - 10/30/2020 Brandon Waddell  LHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.3 2/5/2021 Ian Hamilton RHP Philadelphia Phillies - 2/11/2021 Kyle Garlick RF Atlanta Braves 0.3 6/22/2021 Beau Burrows RHP Detroit Tigers -           Total fWAR 2.6 The Twins have claimed a total of 16 players from opposing organizations since Falvey/Levine took over after the 2016 World Series. Of these 16 claims, their most consequential claim was their very first one. Ehire Adrianza was never a star, but a very productive role player for a number of contending Twins teams. 

After that, the list isn't so impressive. Matt Wisler was great at slinging sliders in the bullpen during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but the Twins cut him last offseason in a puzzling move. C.J. Cron and the currently-injured Kyle Garlick have been the largest "successes" outside of Adrianza and Wisler, each account for 0.3 fWAR as right-handed hitters that were acquired to mash left-handed pitching. 
Most of these players did not remain on the 40-man roster for a long time. Quite a few were lost to waivers shortly after the Twins acquired them, which include Kenny Vargas, Johnny Field, Oliver Drake, and Brandon Waddell. Such is the life on the waiver wire for many MLB players. 
Players Lost Via Waiver Claim
 
Date of Claim Player Position Team Claimed By fWAR after Minnesota 11/18/2016 Adam Brett Walker LF Milwaukee Brewers - 8/26/2017 Tim Melville RHP San Diego Padres -0.2 9/14/2017 Engelb Vielma SS San Francisco Giants -0.1 11/3/2017 Randy Rosario LHP Chicago Cubs -0.3 11/3/2017 Daniel Palka OF Chicago White Sox -0.7 11/6/2017 Nik Turley LHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.2 1/22/2018 Buddy Boshers LHP Houston Astros 0.1 2/23/2018 JT Chargois RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 0.5 3/22/2018 Kenny Vargas 1B Cincinatti Reds - 7/9/2018 Ryan LaMarre CF Chicago White Sox 0.4 10/10/2018 Juan Graterol C Cincinatti Reds -0.2 11/1/2018 Johnny Field RF Chicago Cubs - 11/1/2018 Oliver Drake RHP Tampa Bay Rays 0.4 1/11/2019 Aaron Slegers RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 0.4 5/26/2019 Austin Adams RHP Detroit Tigers -0.1 7/20/2019 Adalberto Mejia LHP Los Angeles Angels 0.0 8/14/2019 Ryan Eades RHP Baltimore Orioles -0.2 9/16/2019 Marcos Diplan RHP Detroit Tigers - 11/4/2019 Stephen Gonsalves LHP New York Mets - 9/5/2020 Ildemaro Vargas 2B Chicago Cubs -0.5 10/1/2020 Sean Poppen RHP Pittsburgh Pirates -0.1 5/8/2021 Brandon Waddell LHP Baltimore Orioles 0 5/14/2021 Travis Blankenhorn 2B Los Angeles Dodgers -0.1 6/5/2021 Dakota Chalmers RHP Chicago Cubs - 6/18/2021 Shaun Anderson RHP Texas Rangers -           Total fWAR -0.5 You'll immediately notice this list of players lost via waivers during the Falvyey/Levine regime is a lot longer than the list of players they've acquired via waivers. All together, they have lost 25 players, which is 9 more players than they've claimed from other teams. 
The good news for the organization, is that this cumulative list has not come back to bite them. 10 of the 25 claimed players provided negative value for their new teams, after departing Minnesota. Daniel Palka's 2017 season really sunk this group, as he posted a -1.4 fWAR in only 93 plate appearances for the White Sox (after he provided 0.7 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ in 2018). 
The largest losses from this group have definitely been in the relief category, highlighted by JT Chargois, Oliver Drake, and Aaron Slegers. However, most of these players have had inconsistent careers, injuries, or both, in their time after playing for Minnesota. 
Even when factoring in some bullpen pieces this organization might regret losing, the total fWAR from these players after departing the Twins is -0.5 fWAR. The current front office has been right far more than wrong, when deciding how to churn the 40-man roster. 
Yearly Trends And Overall Takeaway
Year Players Claimed From Other Teams Players Claimed By Other Teams 2016/2017 3 6 2018 7 7 2019 1 6 2020 2 2 2021 3 4 Total Players 16 25       Total fWAR 2.6 -0.5 fWAR Difference   3.1 Overall, the Twins have gained 3.1 fWAR from their decisions to gain and lose players from the waiver wire. That's a pretty decent result for a type of front office transaction that is often overlooked. It averages out to about 0.69 fWAR per season, factoring in the 4.5 seasons of the Falvey/Levine regime. 
Most of that waiver activity came in 2017 and 2018, when the front office was still adjusting to their inherited players from the previous front office. Successful teams don't always gamble roster spots on players exposed to outright waivers, which is evident in the 2019 team. 
One major caveat to point out across the yearly trend is that teams were probably hesitant to claim players from other organizations during the COVID-19 pandemic, so 2020 and early 2021 should be viewed through that lens.
However, that didn't stop the Twins from claiming 3 bullpen arms (Ian Gibault, Brandon Waddell, and Ian Hamilton), and Kyle Garlick this offseason. The jury is still out on these claims, but Waddell did not go well. 
The most interesting thing about 2021 is that the Twins lost 4 players during their early season free-fall (Brandon Waddell, Travis Blankenhorn, Dakota Chalmers, and Shaun Anderson), before claiming Beau Burrows a few weeks ago from the Detroit Tigers.
Is former first-round draft pick Beau Burrows the tip of the iceberg? Now that 2021 is officially kaput, will the front office be more aggressive? 
I sure hope so. Moves will be made in the next few weeks, and this 40-man roster will be significantly different as we approach the trade deadline. The 40-man roster will likely be smaller, and the Twins will be in front of the line when contenders have to cut players to account for their deadline additions. 
Waiver claims are rarely sexy transactions, but sometimes you stumble into a Ehire Adrianza or a Matt Wisler. The Twins have proven to be more successful than not when it comes to their waiver claim game. It's time to play, because there's simply nothing to lose.