Vanimal46

I’m reposting this excellent analysis from @Otto von Ballpark because we’re going to read a narrative about Jax’s success the first time through the order that is not true. “Jax, 1st 5 MLB starts, first time through the order: 5 GS, 4 H, 0 XBH, 0 R, 3 BB, 0 HBP, 11 K Jax, next 9 MLB starts, first time through the order: 9 GS, 12 H, 8 XBH (6 HR), 12 R, 6 BB, 2 HBP, 14 K His 4 relief appearances don't help either, first time through the order: 4 G, 9 H, 3 XBH (2 HR), 5 R, 4 BB, 7 K All told, he had a 5.39 FIP/xFIP the first time through the order this season, 5.10/5.36 after moving into the rotation. Still a fairly small sample, and obviously it can't account for the potential of his stuff playing up in the pen, but it doesn't appear that he has shown any particular first time through the order ability thus far.” Original post here

You didn’t ask me but I’ll chime in. You’re describing Lewis at his peak value as a prospect. That is no longer the case. He will not be ranked as a top 20 prospect coming up in 2022. And there is no guarantee he will be a top 20 ranked prospect again. They have a couple of options right now. Trade him while he is still a prospect. We missed his peak value as a #1 overall pick and top 20 ranked prospect to acquire MLB veterans. Or, we keep him under the control years determined by the new CBA. I am on team #TradeLewis bandwagon.

Depends if teams value his ability to not strikeout and batting average. MLB as a whole finished at .244 for the season. .245 last year. Haven’t seen times like this since year of the pitcher in 1968. Contact first hitters could be the new market inefficiency!

I agree. But that’s where we stand today. We’ll need a reshuffle to balance out the roster. Polanco or Arraez could fetch a good return. Your CJ Cron mention is a good example of needing to eat up some of Sano’s remaining salary to get a middling prospect back. Cron signed on a minor league deal, had a career year (better than any of Sano’s seasons by WAR) and he just got a 2/$14.5 million extension. Sano is on the hook for $9 million next year and a $2.5 m buy out or $14 million club option in 2023.

Our surplus in the organization as it stands today is corner OF, 1B/DH types, and 2B. If the intention is to rebuild for 2023 and beyond, I would add Jorge Polanco to Ted’s list. His value is possibly at its peak right now. Josh Donaldson could be traded as well if we don’t have to eat a significant remainder of his contract. I think him and Sano are in the same situation, requiring us eating a good portion of the contract to move them. And would prefer trading Sano first.

Hard to say from my couch 1,200 miles away from the clubhouse. I will say this season could have been worse than it ended up being after April and May. The team kept competing and improved somewhat - even when they were basically eliminated from postseason contention by May 1. That would lead me to believe the players haven’t tuned him out and believe in him enough to keep playing as best as they can.

Has anyone’s mind changed due to Buxton’s last month of play? From what I can gather, everyone commenting here has been entrenched in their opinion for a long time. I’m glad my employment is not on the line making this call. There isn’t a previous example of negotiating long term with a player who’s played over 100 games once in a 6 year career. The terms that were discussed before (7/$70) terrify me, frankly. The contract length could torpedo this organization if he can’t stay healthy. It might be worth the risk, but it could just as easily blow up in their face as he loses speed and defensive chops into his 30s.

A top contender in the 2021 preposterous statement tournament. Not even the most disappointing season this year. The Nationals lost 97 games in a year they had Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Josh Bell on roster. The Cubs lost 91 games with an even more talented lineup on roster during the season.

I like Big Mike. The Twins seem to like him, and he seems to like it here. I would welcome him back because we need consistency and stability in the rotation. He’ll rarely give you 7-8 strong innings, but he almost always gives you 5-6 good innings each outing. I think you hit the nail on the head with the contract proposal. 2/$22 with incentives based on IP. Sign me up.

Here’s a list of rule 5 adds and fringe adds courtesy of @Danchat As far as position players go, Miranda and Lewis are easy adds.

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers?

I hope Polanco remains at 2B. His skillset was stretched thin before his 2 ankle surgeries. Keep him at 2B and let him rake at the plate. I am in full agreement with @chpettit19believing there isn’t a true SS prospect in the organization. I want to take advantage of this historic SS free agent class and land one of Seager, Correa, or Baez. I simply won’t believe they’ll spend big money on pitching until I see it. There’s better odds they’ll do it for an everyday position player at a premium spot like SS.

Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot: Simmons - obviously Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces.

Well deserved for Miranda. We’ll see him early on in the season, if not opening day 2022. I wonder what they’ll do with the 2nd place finisher, Trey Cabbage? He is due to be a free agent this winter. Good for him to break out this season and make it a tough decision to keep him or let him go.

Does the OC survive the year? We see this kind of one dimensional offense with a true freshman QB.

Wasn’t there murmurs of Rogers being non-tendered last year? Is there any risk he will be non-tendered this winter? I know Colomé has turned things around in the 2nd half, but I would have a hard time bringing him back for 2022. His performance in April torpedoed the season, frankly. Thielbar’s proving to be the real deal. Good for him. Breathing left handed pitchers always have a place on an MLB team. We also have a category of failed starters to sift through as well: Smeltzer, Thorpe (probably getting outright released), Gant, Jax.

Sure, and the Dodgers specifically have made so many win now moves that it’s all lost in translation. I asked my Dodgers friend when the Maeda vs Graterol trade winner article came out here who he thought won the deal. That trade didn’t register on his radar because they’ve made so many blockbuster deals in the last 2 years alone. I do wonder if those type of arguments are central to MN sports fans or elsewhere? Do fans on Pirates Daily constantly bring up the Chris Archer trade as a reason to never trade again? Similarly to us thinking every player we let go could be the next David Ortiz? I don’t know.

I think there is a lot of pent up frustration, jealousy, and insecurity with Minnesota sports fans that may be unique to the region. I am not an exception to this, but I try my best not to act like this all the time 30 years without a championship in the men’s major 4 sports is the source of the frustration. Frankly, only the Vikings have gotten relatively close to a championship in those 30 years. The Twins can’t overcome the Yankees in the playoffs, the T-Wolves have been a laughingstock for 15 years, and the Wild haven’t been able to put it all together. I think there is a TON of jealousy from fans. You can see it on this very thread that we’re using tax dollars to support “billionaire owner overlords”. A common theme I see all the time is bitching about the highest paid player on the team, and essentially running them out of town. Joe Mauer was the local hero who could do no wrong. Then once he became the highest paid player on the team and a career altering concussion happens, the hate starts pouring in. Josh Donaldson this year has had unwarranted attacks written about him on this very site. Kirk Cousins is the most polarizing player in the state. The list goes on and on. Finally, I think there’s a ton of insecurity from fans. There’s a constant worry that player X will never sign here because of cold weather, or a myriad of other things that aren’t important as money. As soon as a current Minnesota sports player says they may be looking elsewhere after their contract is over, fans turn on them saying “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Jimmy Butler is a prime example. He was the only reason the T Wolves were relevant for a year. The minute he expressed his concerns about the team and maybe playing elsewhere, people wanted him gone immediately. It’s a truly wild dynamic here. I highly doubt people at Dodgers Daily bitch about paying Matt Kemp deferred money all these years later. Or if they won or lost a trade from 2 years ago. It’s only here. And I don’t know why.

Obviously we’re just going through the motions to end the season. Hopefully we’ve learned Arraez isn’t the answer anywhere besides 2B. Several people clamored to see Gordon at SS. Is this what you wanted to see?

For the right price I’d have no problem re-signing him. Nothing wrong with having consistency in the back end of the rotation.

Lance Lynn ranks right up there on my least favorite Twins signings too.

One part that stuck out to me in this episode is when Aaron said retooling teams spend a lot of money to fix their problems, rebuilding teams spend no money. I guess we will see this winter what Falvey and Levine really think about the state of the organization. I am on the retool train, and hope that the $55-60 million available to spend this offseason is spent on a top flight SS, a #2/3 type like Gray or Wood, mid tier guy like Pineda, and multiple fliers for the bullpen. They could free up even more available money if they find willing takers for Donaldson or Sano. If Falvey and Levine think it’s time to rebuild, then it’s imperative to sell Polanco at his peak value, as well as getting what you can for Buxton, Rogers, etc. I really hope this isn’t the route they take.

If the Twins match the payroll total of the last couple years, they’ll have around $55-60 million to spend. Their biggest needs (SS and SP) are the largest ticket items in free agency. I’m in agreement with the author that the top priority should be signing one of the elite SS free agents long term. Then look to mid-tier SPs such as Jon Gray, Alex Wood, Pineda, etc. to raise the floor of the pitching staff.

“Blocking starts by prospects” is so overstated on this website lately. And it’s simply not true. 35 year old Andrew Albers has been taking regular spots in the rotation. You don’t think Pineda can take that spot? Not to mention, the only prospect doing well is Ober. Jax and his 6+ ERA isn’t doing anything to deserve being in the rotation. Other than there’s no one else to take the ball away from him.

Happ and Shoemaker stuck around way too long because there wasn’t anyone ready to take their place. Thanks to injury to a multitude of pitchers in the upper levels. We are in a better position now to rip and replace mid level acquisitions if they flop. At least that’s the hope with 10 pitchers in AA/AAA with relative upside. If they flop and that’s who we banked on, we’re turning to someone much worse than them… Waiver wire scrubs like Garcia and Burrows.