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Alex Schieferdecker

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Everything posted by Alex Schieferdecker

  1. Alex Schieferdecker
    Duran has been phenomenal, but Miranda is a credible AL RotY dark horse. If he continues hitting at the rate that he's been hitting since the All-Star break, he could absolutely win the award (if baseball writers are still paying attention after penciling JRod into their ballots in June).
  2. Alex Schieferdecker
    These games against the Royals should be free wins, but good on the Twins for taking advantage. Goodness knows they have not always done so. Mahle's injury is really a worry. Shoulder fatigue could mean an extra day of rest, skipping a start or two, or worse in the longer term. Not what you want to see. The off-day tomorrow is a godsend for the team and made today's extra bullpen work tolerable (as did the speed at which the Royals got themselves out). If Mahle misses a start or gets a bridge day, the Twins will need to make a call-up. The simplest approach would be to use Cole Sands and call up another reliever instead. But I'm not sure why they'd want to trust a key game in a division race to a Sands start. If Bailey Ober is as close to returning as has been reported, he might be the right person to plug in. Easily the most fun option would be for Louie Varland to make his MLB debut, just one start after his stellar AAA debut. He's supposed to start for the Saints tomorrow, but the Twins could bring him up for Friday and push the rotation back a day. Alternatively they could have him throw something less than a full start tomorrow and then have him lined up to replace Mahle on the 23rd. Some fun options despite the worry about Mahle.
  3. Alex Schieferdecker
    Sandy Leon has quietly been a tremendous pick-up. He's not prolific at the plate, but he's not a walkover either. His bunting ability is actually a skill the Twins have lacked with other players but been able to use with him in key spots. He's also had more success throwing out runners. Anyway, good job Sonny. It's fine if he wants to pitch deeper, but I don't know how many more times we need to see guys get kicked around by the opposing team on their third trip through the order to realize that there's a good reason they don't usually go much deeper than that. The bullpen feels so much stronger now, especially with Thielbar on fire. After he started the year pitching batting practice, I figured he was washed. But he's been unbelievable since, especially with inherited runners. I'd like to see the Twins call up Evan Sisk as a lefty specialist so that Thielbar can be deployed in more match-up independent roles.
  4. Alex Schieferdecker
    It's a bummer, but if the Twins were getting serious about having a playoff bullpen, it had to happen. Surely Pagan is next, I can't imagine he has much slack left. Megill is on thin ice as well, but like Pagan, he can at least point to having really good stuff. Duffey just doesn't. Across those three, I'd be surprised if the Twins don't end the season having replaced at least two, but probably three, with some mixture of Maeda, Moran, and either Sisk or Sands.
  5. Alex Schieferdecker
    Current state of the bullpen 1. RHP Duran 2. RHP Lopez 3. RHP Jax 4. LHP Thielbar 5. LHP Moran 6. ??? Trade ??? 7. ??? Someone until Maeda is ready, then Maeda 8. ??? Best performing of the guys who are bad
  6. Alex Schieferdecker
    Anyone know what Lee and Prilipp's MiLB timelines are? When might they make their debuts?
  7. Alex Schieferdecker
    If the Twins make no trades, then they are certainly vulnerable. But there's absolutely no reason to expect that they will sit on their hands. They've been active in past years and they know what their needs are. As for the White Sox and Guardians... have these rival officials watched them play this year? Neither of those teams is any good, the Twins have been there for the taking for months and they haven't gained any ground at all.
  8. Alex Schieferdecker
    It's a dumb idea, some people are dumb.
  9. Alex Schieferdecker
    Sabato and Cavaco, two names I haven't heard in a while!
  10. Alex Schieferdecker
    Disappointing to see Moran's control issues return after a string of very good outings. It would be great for the Twins bullpen if he would be able to earn more trust, but yesterday he just didn't have it.
  11. Alex Schieferdecker
    Royce Lewis is certainly the #1 prospect, because he's proven it. We've already seen that he can hit big league pitching and is a credible major league shortstop. But after that, you have to go with the projectability of Brooks Lee. Even though he's coming out of the draft at basically the same level as Austin Martin, he has the advantage of being an unknown, while Martin has the disadvantage of being far better known and disappointing. After those two, I'm not sure who comes next. The hottest Twins prospects are all in lower levels of the minors right now. There seems to be a gap right now, where there aren't any especially promising prospects after Lewis. Perhaps Prielipp will impress, or Rodriguez will continue hitting as he moves up.
  12. Alex Schieferdecker
    After a great minor league season last year, the Puerto Rican lefty struggled in his cup of coffee last fall with the Twins. This year, he's been much better. His change-up still looks like one of the best pitches on the team, but the big difference is that his fastball seems to have massively improved. He's been getting a number of swings and misses on it, even going through at-bats while throwing nothing else. It no longer is just a hittable set-up for his change, but quite possibly an average-to-good pitch in its own right, Statcast's numbers appear to back up the eye test, albeit with some small-ish samples. Last year, Moran threw 85 fastballs, averaging a spin rate of 2150. This year, Moran has thrown 181 fastballs, averaging a spin rate of 2242. That's good enough to move from the bottom quartile of fastball spin to (just barely) the top half. As a result, his fastball has gone from 16 inches of drop to 13.6 inches of drop, which is exceptional (Alek Manoah's fastball has averaged 14 inches of drop). The Whiff% has increased from 25.6% to 34.8%. At the same time, Moran's change hasn't changed its numbers significantly. I think his improved performance is entirely down to somehow figuring out how to turn his fastball into a credible pitch. Would love for someone who knows more about this stuff to dig into it more deeply.
  13. Alex Schieferdecker
    If I were the Twins, I would pick the good players and not pick the bad players.
  14. Alex Schieferdecker
    Just want everyone to know that I have strong opinions on all of these day two draftees, which will be proven correct in the coming years, but I will not be sharing them publicly in order to, uh, protect my model.
  15. Alex Schieferdecker
    Extremely high upside pitcher? Say no more.
  16. Alex Schieferdecker
    If they DFA'd Cotton, Duffey, Pagan, and Smith tomorrow, I'd feel extremely relieved.
  17. Alex Schieferdecker
    I think Rocco has decided that he needs to squeeze a couple extra outs from the Duran/Jax/Thielbar group, because there's nobody else he can trust.
  18. Alex Schieferdecker
    I wouldn't bet on it. He still seems to be getting hit hard. He's just had a string of those balls going to fielders instead of gaps.
  19. Alex Schieferdecker
    I don't understand what the Twins are trying to do with Balazovic. If he's hurt, why not let him rest? If he's struggling for other reasons, why not let him recover his form in Wichita? What is being gained by sending him out every week to get shelled at AAA? Feels like they keep trying the same thing and hoping for different results, but the results have been consistent and bad.
  20. Alex Schieferdecker
    Sisk remains the guy to watch for me. He's just 25 and pitching well. He hasn't been quite as unhittable in St. Paul so far as he was in Wichita, but it's a small sample size and if he can put together another two or three weeks of great relief pitching, he should move up to the front of the line for a call-up.
  21. Alex Schieferdecker
    I'm not sure the Twins need to move significant assets for a starting pitcher, barring another major injury. With Smeltzer and Winder capably filling in, the team has a lot of depth, even if no higher-end compliment to Gray. Then, looking at next year, the Twins have Gray returning, Maeda healthy, and four compelling younger arms in Ober, Ryan, Smeltzer, and Winder, with Paddack likely rejoining the mix around midseason, and who knows who else from the minors.
  22. Alex Schieferdecker
    I'd like to see Moran increasingly be entrusted with higher leverage roles.
  23. Alex Schieferdecker
    This year's White Sox have an uncanny resemblance to last year's Twins. I have kept waiting for them to find their groove and start mounting a challenge to the division, but at this point that looks less likely than them getting passed by the Tigers and dumped into fourth place. Anyway Josh Winder is good, Alex Kirilloff is good, Jose Miranda is good.
  24. Alex Schieferdecker
    Yeah, I think the main difference between the two is that Pagan actually has good stuff.
  25. Alex Schieferdecker
    I think the Twins can't be complacent with the bullpen mess any longer. DFA Cotton and Thornburg too, if you're not going to use him. Bring up two of either Sisk, Sands, Minaya, or Hamilton. They absolutely need to spend July sounding out the fitness of any internal candidates.
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