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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    That could very well be true. But there's always ways around the money aspect. The Mets were happy to make it so the Astros and Rangers didn't have to add salary to get Verlander and Scherzer last year. And I'm not suggesting there's going to be some huge jump in guys traded. I'm not predicting that a guy who would've cost 1 top 100 guy plus filler is now going to cost 3 top 100 guys, or even 2. But if they used to cost a top 5 system guy plus a top 10 guy and a top 15 guy, they may now cost a top 5 guy and 2 top 10 guys instead. Generally speaking, though, the more possible buyers you have the better your odds of finding the 1 guy who will "overpay" for what you have. If teams are holding out for 3 top 100 guys on someone who should cost 2 top 10-15 system guys they're going to be disappointed. But the odds of talking a team into giving up a guy from tier 2 when they only wanted to trade from tier 3 go up with the more buyers and fewer sellers there are. Supply and demand. It's not about huge jumps in cost, but there's likely some incremental cost increases.
  2. chpettit19
    You still have to make the playoffs. Some jobs depend on it. AJ Preller has to be feeling some heat. The Cards don't finish below .500 (had done it once in the 21st century before last year) and I'm sure Mozeliak is feeling some heat. The Astros are trying to hang onto a bit of a dynasty. The Rangers just won the World Series after making a big deadline deal and going crazy on spending. The Blue Jays are at decision time on the core of their roster and the FO and manager all have to be feeling it after years of "going for it." Seattle is desperate for some playoff success. Lots of different reasons. Just squeaking into the playoffs isn't the goal for Philly, LAD, Atlanta, San Diego, or the Yankees. That's 10 teams off the top of my head. Cleveland saw what happened when they did absolutely nothing so they are likely not going to just sit pat with a real division race this year. Detroit invested during the offseason and may not be able to fight the temptation to give a little extra effort at the deadline even if they're a year ahead of schedule. KC has to be hungry to get back to the postseason. There's only 5 teams in baseball more than 6 games out of a wild card spot. 3 pretty clear sellers in the AL (LAA, Oak, CWS) and 2 obvious sellers in the NL (Col- even though they're impossible to predict and probably won't sell at all, Mia). That leaves 25 teams who can all find reasons to talk themselves into buying. It being easier to make the playoffs just means there's more teams trying to make the playoffs. "Just make the playoffs" is a pretty big oversimplification of things.
  3. chpettit19
    I think the deadline moving forward will almost always be a seller's market. With the playoff expansion there are just so many teams that can talk themselves into having a chance. Or FOs that are on the hot seat and feel they need to make a push to save their jobs. Sellers can work up far better bidding wars now than in the past because there's so many more teams fighting for playoff spots. Will be fascinating to see how teams evolve their deadline strategies.
  4. chpettit19
    No, #2 catcher isn't better. Yes, the team needs 2 catchers, but that doesn't mean one has to be bad. Just like needing 5 starters doesn't mean any of them have to be bad. He's not a #2 catcher, either. He's got the 25th most PAs as a catcher in the majors this year. That's a #1 catcher according to the fact that there's 30 teams. The Twins don't do "backup" catchers. They do co-catchers. You can't have 1 good catcher and 1 bad catcher if you're going to split them 50/50. Unless you want to take away the entire advantage of having that 1 good catcher and are just looking for league average performance out of that spot. Vazquez is very good defensively, and I don't think there should be any question about whether or not he's worth rostering. But 3/30 was too much when he signed, and way too much now. The Twins are stuck with him no matter what for this year and at least most of next cuz they aren't going to eat that money or trade a prospect to get rid of him. The real problem right now is that Jeffers is terrible.
  5. chpettit19
    There have been 79 guys to get at least 1 PA as a catcher (according to Fangraphs). Of those 79, Jeffers is 23rd at 136 and Vazquez is 25th at 132. He's most certainly not a "backup." And, no, they absolutely don't sign him for 3/30 if they knew this is how his first 2 years would go. There's a reason he was struggling so hard (according to all the reports) to find someone to give him a 3rd guaranteed year. Teams didn't want to be in the spot the Twins are now in. But, to be fair to Vazquez, he's been hitting better than Jeffers recently so not being the backup at this point in time makes sense.
  6. chpettit19
    The problem only arises if too many of your righties can't hit righties. The Twins platoon to avoid lefties hitting lefties, not righties hitting righties. The problem is that the righties they match with the lefties in platoons can't hit righties. If you're going to go to the extremes the Twins want to go to to avoid lefties hitting lefties you can't have so many righties that can't hit righties. The problem isn't in the number of righties they have, it's the quality of righties.
  7. chpettit19
    If you think Pete Alonso can still be a 130 or higher OPS+ bat? You don't worry about Jose Miranda. But there's always plenty of ABs to go around. The "log jams" or questions about where everyone will play never actually become problems. The lineup is about as healthy as you could ask right now and I'm pretty sure we could find a way to fit Pete Alonso into it even with Miranda. If the Twins ever get to a point where they have a legitimate problem with not being able to get all their 115+ OPS+ bats on the field we should be ecstatic. But, more importantly, I don't think Pete Alonso is a good investment for what he's going to get paid because he won't be a 130+ OPS+ bat for much longer from the looks of things. But Jose Miranda shouldn't stop the Twins from adding an All Star bat if they can (News flash: They can't cuz they can't afford any so it's really all moot anyways).
  8. chpettit19
    I wasn't suggesting Kirilloff is going to be Harper 2.0. The other poster believes Matt Wallner's comp should be Bryce Harper. I was just referencing that. I don't have any idea what to make of Kirilloff. I think he's a talented kid, but he's broken right now. Same with Julien. Kirilloff, to me, looks like he's pressing. Looks like he's trying to swing his way through his struggles and is just swinging at everything. Definitely needs a reset. If you told me at the end of the year he'd have a 110 (or higher) OPS+ for the Twins and is squarely in their plans for 2025, I wouldn't be shocked. If you told me he ended up with an 80 (or lower) OPS+ and is going to get non-tendered, I wouldn't be shocked. Same with Miranda, Wallner, Julien (although they wouldn't be non-tendered cuz of their options), and Larnach. This is pretty typical stuff for inexperienced MLB hitters. The league finds your weakness and make you look terrible until you can fix it. No idea where Kirilloff's numbers will be at the end of the year. I won't be shocked by any result.
  9. chpettit19
    That first paragraph is objectively false. I don't know why you're so against the idea that he played injured. There's a difference between an acute injury (I was able to swing fine yesterday, but not today) and a chronic injury (I couldn't swing fine yesterday or today). He returned to the Twins lineup on June 17th 2022. He didn't play in the 2nd game of a double header on June 28, but played in every other game until July 31st. He returned to the field on August 1st. He played in 94.4% of the team's games during that time period before he had to stop so they could shorten a bone in his wrist because it was causing him so much pain. There was fear this injury or the surgery could end his career right then and there. The stance that he was just playing through things like everybody else does and wasn't playing injured is complete and utter nonsense. The idea that his wrist problem just popped up and he got put on the IL is simply false. His bone didn't suddenly grow longer on July 31st. Although, I'm not a Dr so maybe I'm just unaware of that being a thing that happens to people in their early 20s. Does any of that mean he may just not be good enough now? Nope. But the idea that he stopped playing the second he was hurt defies logic and reality. You can both admit that he played injured and may not be good enough. I don't know why you're so against that. He may not be good enough. Being arb-2 and having fewer than 900 PAs is not a good situation (Mazara had over 2000 by that point since he's the comp you want to use). Cutting guys of his status before they reach 1000 PAs is not what any team wants to do. But it certainly may be what happens. I just hope Bryce Harper 2.0 can show up and take over for Nomar Mazara 2.0.
  10. chpettit19
    He'd probably be 2nd to Corey Seager, but I'd be very happy with Carlos.
  11. chpettit19
    Does anyone think he's a bad fielder? I'd bet not many even think he's just an average fielder. Pretty widely accepted as above average to elite defensively. He's currently 5th in baseball in wRC+ amongst SSs with at least 150 PAs this year. I don't know what people think they should be getting. Yes, he makes a lot of money, but that's the cost of acquiring big time talent. Is he overrated? I'm sure players are sick of hearing about him. But Juan Soto got a vote in that survey for being overrated as well. Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado, Yordan Alvarez, Emmanuel Clase, Rafael Devers, Gerrit Cole, Julio Rodriguez, Spencer Strider, and Bryce Harper all received at least 1 vote. Any of those guys feel "overrated" to folks around here? If we had those guys in a Twins uniform would we be complaining about them, too? It costs a lot to have top end talent that aren't pre-arb, or year 1 or 2 arb, guys. Maybe the people complaining about spending money on players aren't the same as the people who want the Twins to be WS contenders. But if you want big time talent for more than 3 or 4 years of their careers you have to accept that they're going to cost a lot. Or we can be the Rays and never have guys around for more than 3 or 4 years at a time.
  12. chpettit19
    Not offended, just pointing out your complete inaccuracy. If the list were only 5 teams and they were last on that list would you be upset that they were "last?" In a league full of Latin players and guys from warm weather states? Yeah, I'm thrilled with 14th. Did you read the stipulations? Roster makeup didn't matter (so not just looking to join the best team), contracts didn't matter (so not going for the biggest deal), state taxes, etc. didn't matter (still not looking for most money). It was basically picking what location you like best (thus the part where the explanation below the chart says "The responses skewed toward players' residential preferences, with many citing that they'd like to play for the team closest to where they live in the offseason or where they grew up"). You think a lot of guys from warm weather states or Latin countries are picking MN as their offseason home? I'm guessing not. The explainer even mentions some guys wanting to play in the new Texas park or Boston cuz of Fenway. The fact that the Twins were even in the middle speaks to how highly players talk about the Twins organization, I'd say. What reason (knowing rosters didn't matter in the question) would any player have for picking MN? There's plenty of things to bash this organization for, but this isn't one of them. You didn't count the number of teams in the chart and assumed it was some big shot at the Twins by the players in MLB. You claimed they were last. It wasn't a shot at the Twins and they weren't last. A flyover location being in the top half is actually pretty shocking. The Reds were the only other team on that list that weren't in a major city (Chicago- Cubs, not Sox), on a coast, or in a warm weather location. This simply wasn't the shot at the Twins you tried to claim it was.
  13. chpettit19
    23 PAs "utterly tanked" his value? Come on. He has a 110 wRC+. Not the best ever, but even in a completely useless sample size he's doing just fine. Suggesting the #5 pick from last year who's widely considered an elite prospect has "utterly tanked" his value after 6 A ball games feels awfully aggressive.
  14. chpettit19
    Except it didn't require "offseason surgery" it required in-season surgery. You're the one manipulating context. Alex Kirilloff played his last game in 2022 on August 1st and had surgery on August 16th. He played up until they decided they needed to literally shave his wrist bone down to fix the pain. It wasn't an acute injury that required surgery, it was a chronic injury that required surgery. Surgery that he had more or less immediately while in the middle of the season.
  15. chpettit19
    If having to have your wrist bone broken and shaved down because of the pain it causes doesn't count as injured, I don't know what does.
  16. chpettit19
    The story of inexperienced MLB hitters. And why they have options. Miranda and Larnach were guys most around here had no desire for the Twins to rely on coming into this season. Now they're hitting somewhere between 1 and 5 in the order most games. It's why guys with options, and overall depth, are so nice. It takes the vast majority of players some ups and downs between the majors and minors to get things dialed in. Cutting guys loose early because you've decided who they are as a player generally isn't a solid strategy (trading them is different).
  17. chpettit19
    I think Julien's problem is similar to what Larnach went through for yours, the league knows he can't hit breaking balls. Larnach seemed to struggle more with recognition while Julien's problem seems to be more of a swing problem. The league is not nice to guys when they find a major weakness. I don't like it if a guy has to go all the way down the org chart to fix his swing. If Julien can't fix himself in AAA he's probably not a piece the team needs to worry about. The real test is fixing himself without leaving the majors. Adjusting to adjustments is the name of the game. But he has options so going to AAA to fix things makes sense now. I don't know what Kirilloff's swing speeds were last year, but they're not bad this year. 56th percentile isn't out of this world, but it's not the end of the world. He does have a pretty low "fast swing rate" even though he has an above average bat speed number. To me that's a sign he's either getting off really good swings or really bad ones, which is why I think he's caught in between. When he hits it he hits it well, though. His avg exit velo is 80th percentile so he's hitting the ball hard. The chases and swings and misses seem to be the biggest problems. Along with his launch angles (I know some people are going to hate that).
  18. chpettit19
    It might be. He's also played a lot of that time injured. I'm not making a statement one way or the other on how good he'll be, but he looks like he's caught in between on his swings. He's had some very nice stretches when healthy in the past and now the league may be making adjustments to him and he needs to adjust back. 800 at bats is by no means a career defining amount. Especially when you're in and out of the lineup with injuries. He still has a very large spectrum of possible outcomes. This may be as good as it gets for Wallner and Julien. Lewis may cool off. Jeffers has been all over in terms of production. That's the story of inexperienced MLB hitters. We don't know what any of them really are until their first struggles with MLB adjustments and then we see if they can figure it out from there. Still don't know what Miranda will end up as either. I'm not banking on or writing off any of them. I have more faith in some than others, but I'm not sold one way or the other on any of them (outside Lewis, I've been saying he's a star forever). This is why they have options. Sometimes they need to go back down and see if they can get right. That'd be my move with Kirilloff. If Keirsey were healthy and still performing, or Severino wasn't so terrible most of this year I'd make the switch now. But there's really nobody else down there I'd call up to do it now so I'd wait a couple more weeks.
  19. chpettit19
    He looks caught in between to me. A trip to AAA to get himself back on track at some point may be the best idea. With Julien playing 1B in St Paul, I wouldn't be surprised to see that swap take place in the next few weeks if Julien can get himself locked in again.
  20. chpettit19
    Absolutely! Just hope the lungs are strong enough to hold up for a while.
  21. chpettit19
    Kiersey is on the IL. Hasn't played in 2 weeks. Don't think anyone should be holding their breath for him to be making his Twins debut anytime soon.
  22. chpettit19
    You claimed the Twins came in last in that poll. That is factually incorrect. They came in 14th out of 30. There were 16 teams that got fewer votes. 9 teams didn't get a single vote. You are significantly misrepresenting where they came in on that poll by claiming they came in last. They didn't. They were in the top half of the league.
  23. chpettit19
    That's a pretty significant misrepresentation of where the Twins ranked in the question about where players would sign. They came in tied for 14th at that 2.3%. Actually a pretty impressive placement considering we're in fly over country. And they didn't receive a single vote for teams with a bad reputation among players.
  24. chpettit19
    That absolutely is an astounding record. It's crazy how bad they've been against the Yankees for a long time. Yes, money is absolutely the biggest difference. In his time with the Astros Correa had plenty of success against the Yankees. I don't believe he "freezes" against the Yankees. Christian Vazquez has won World Series titles, I don't think he "freezes" because he's now with the Twins and they've been bad against the Yankees in recent history. The Rays have been very good against the Yankees for a while so I'm guessing Manuel Margot isn't intimidated and doesn't "freeze" against them. As @JD-TWINS points out, the guys in 2024 aren't looking back and seeing that the guys in 2008 struggled with the Yankees. The Twins have been a wildly inconsistent team this year. They're 0-14 against the Yankees, Orioles, and Guardians. They've really struggled against teams over .500. The game before the Twins started their series with the Yankees Juan Soto went 3 for 5 with 2 homeruns to extend his hitting streak to 7 games. In the 10 games before they played the Twins Juan Soto was 14 for 38 with 7 BBs and 4 HRs. That's a .368/.457/.842/1.299 quad slash. I don't know about his arm hurting before the Twins series, but there certainly wasn't anything in his performance just before that series that indicated he was hurting. I'd say that's why they didn't rest him. I don't think the Yankees had any internal meetings about it being the Twins coming to town and them needing to keep them down by having Juan play through an injury for 3 extra days before resting. I don't think there's any sense to be made. Just like there wasn't sense to be made in the playoff losing streak. Sometimes you just have crazy results in random small samples over multiple decades. It certainly hasn't been any fun to watch, though.
  25. chpettit19
    I think the Yankees have superior teams almost every year so they beat the less talented team almost every year. The solution is to build teams that are better than the Yankees teams. I don't think the Yankees, or their fans, think about the Twins at all. The Twins are rarely good enough for them to think about. The Yankees dominate a lot of teams. That's what good teams do to bad teams. The Yankees haven't had a losing record since 1992. You're dominating a lot of lesser teams when you have a 30 year streak of being over .500.
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