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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Emmanuel Rodriguez what not part of that trade so I'm not sure what his success has to do with that trade.
  2. chpettit19
    Jenkins injury doesn't concern me at all and he's still #1 by a significant margin on my list. He looks like a natural and I expect him to reach AA this year and be ready to debut at some point next year. A herniated disk is no joke, and not a typical injury for a pro athlete. That does give me some worry about Lee. I've never seen him as a star, so the injury doesn't change his ceiling for me. I'd agree he has the higher floor than Emma, but a lower ceiling. He'd probably be #3 on my list now because I prefer ceiling to floor. You don't win championships with floor, you need ceiling. Emma's floor is still AAAA player who doesn't make enough contact to be an MLB player. His extreme patience (at least bordering on passivity) at the plate makes it really hard to predict what he'll be because he likely won't be tested the way he needs to be until he gets to the majors. I don't tend to rank prospects with lots of swing and miss super highly. The guys in the majors are really, really good at finding holes and exploiting them so if you're swinging and missing a ton in AA it's not likely you're going to suddenly become a great contact guy in the bigs. And he's not going to walk at a 25% clip in the majors if he's swinging and missing so much. He'd probably be my #2 prospect right now because if he does make contact well in the majors he's going to be a star. But there's a massive gap between Jenkins and him, for me. 1. Jenkins 2. Emma 3. Lee
  3. chpettit19
    That's fair. Don't disagree with that stance at all. Well other than I think his bat will be/is solidly above average and not slightly above average.
  4. chpettit19
    Starting pitching prospects or current major leaguers? I'd argue this team needs Miranda's offense this year more than it needs another current major league rotation arm. In my opinion, the offense on this team is a far bigger problem than their rotation. I don't trust this rotation in the playoffs, but I don't trust this offense to even get to the playoffs. Taking a 113 OPS+ bat out of a lineup with 7 guys with 100 or better OPS+ sounds like a bad decision for a team trying to make the playoffs.
  5. chpettit19
    As for just whether or not they should be eligible, I'd say they shouldn't be eligible for the draft pick compensation, but I'm good with them being eligible for winning the rookie of the year award itself. The Japanese leagues are very good, but they aren't the majors. They're still rookies to the major leagues and I think they should be recognized as rookie of the year (like Ichiro was) even if they shouldn't bring an extra draft pick to their team.
  6. chpettit19
    I don't believe either is on the requisite top prospect lists to be eligible for the draft pick compensation.
  7. chpettit19
    I disagree that "not spending" is the same as "trying to get by without talent." If the sample size isn't going to change then it is volatility. Their job is always going to be to throw 60 IP. Some years they're going to be good in those 60 innings, some they aren't. That's the nature of relief pitching. It's volatile because it's a small sample, but that doesn't make it not volatile. Their performance can shift dramatically year to year (because it's a small sample) without being easily predicted. The definition of volatility is "a tendency to change quickly and unpredictably." Relief pitchers are volatile. Edwin Diaz is a timely example of both of these things. The Mets spent ($102 million) but he's been terrible so he's no longer trusted to close games. They had traded for him in 2019 (gave up a ton for him and old man Cano) and he was terrible and lost his closer role. The nature of relief pitching is small sample, and it causes their performances to be volatile.
  8. chpettit19
    I'd be shocked to see Varland in the MLB pen anytime soon. They have no rotation depth and you can't take him out of that role in May. My guess is he ends up in the pen in September if the rotation is mostly healthy, but he's not going there in May. Also not sure why they're treating Alcala this way. I don't think he's going to be great, but he's certainly got more upside than the never ending line of mid-30s, 1-hit-wonder arms they keep trying to make work. Not sure why he isn't getting a shot at being a 1 inning 6th/7th inning guy. I will say the practice of not spending on the lowest guys in your pen isn't a crazy strategy. Finding guys with a pitch that can be dominant (slider or any other) who you can get for cheap is pretty standard for teams these days. Relievers are just too volatile to invest big in and the best practice is to find individual dominant pitches and rotate through guys through the first half of the year to find which guys are going to stick that year.
  9. chpettit19
    Yeah, the Padres, and Royals, had scouts that watched him in AAA and in the majors and in college and everywhere in between. Him being cut loose by other teams has nothing to do with how the Twins handled him. Their coaches and FO didn't think he was good enough.
  10. chpettit19
    This is a stretch of an argument. The Padres and Royals cut Rooker because the Twins were willing to trade him? They don't have their own coaches and scouts that can say "the Twins were wrong on this guy?"
  11. chpettit19
    You can consider me whatever type of fan you want. We're just going to have to agree to disagree that my willingness to spend significant amounts of money on a mediocre product defines who I am as a fan. As fans we have 1 way to "vote" on how the team is doing and that's with our money. My vote is that a bunch of teams that struggle to stay above .500 in a horrible division aren't good enough. You feel different and that's all good. No complaints here. But you are definitely the type of fan the Pohlads love. One that will give them their money no matter what their product looks like. I choose to spend money on quality products. Yeah, you're just never going to sell me on the idea that it's the employee's fault but not the owner who keeps the employee employed. Dave St Peter has been the president of the Twins for 22 years. How many years do they have to employ him before it's their fault and not his that the Twins are failing to meet expectations?
  12. chpettit19
    It's almost like throwing cold water on their fans excitement cooled down fan excitement. Pohlads right-sized and now it looks like the fans are right-sizing. If the Pohlads want to hide behind their employees they shouldn't go on the radio and add to the PR disaster they already had on their hands. I agree the Pohlads have spent more total dollars recently, but 19th in MLB is not impressive for a team coming off an ALDS appearance. What were they ranked last year? The Pohlads deserve criticism even if the main problem is St Peter. They're the ones continuing to employee St Peter. The Pohlads deserve criticism even if Falvey was the one to break the payroll cut news at the start of the offseason. They're the ones who cut the payroll. The Pohlads deserve criticism for coming out and telling fans they needed to right-size their business. I'd be willing to bet a whole lot of money that the Pohlads were involved heavily in the TV decision. They deserve just as much criticism there as St Peter. He doesn't make these decisions without their input. It's their team. Their business. Any problem is their problem. "My employees are trash and I haven't fired them in 22 years" doesn't take away their responsibility. Build winning teams and the Twin Cities show up. It's been shown time and time again. The team was 55-53 on August 1st last year. Not sure why anyone would think a crazy number of fans would be showing up for that. They were a 70-65 on September 1st. They were 67-62 on September 1 of 2022. They finished 78-84. They were 73-89 in 2021. Why should fans show up for this? They've had a mediocre product and gotten mediocre attendance from their customers. They hadn't won a playoff game in nearly 2 decades. They finally did. They finally got the fans excited. And then both the Pohlads themselves and their employees immediately destroyed fan excitement. They deserve all the bad press. They didn't have to cut payroll a single dollar if they didn't want to. Blaming St Peter is a cop out. The Pohlads made those decisions. The Pohlads continue to employee everyone you could possibly want to blame. It starts and ends at the top. Making the decision to cut payroll when they were finally giving their fans something to be excited about is 100% on them. Whether it was the right business decision or not, it was the absolute worst PR decision. And they're the ones who made it.
  13. chpettit19
    I don't remember what the update on Jenkins was, but I think there was something out there at some point recently. Lee has/had a herniated disk in his back. Here is some info from April 23 about him. I don't think they've provided much new info since. Likely not much to report as he works his way back at this point.
  14. chpettit19
    You're missing out on a lot of NFL "stats" if you don't think they have "stats" that say the QB that threw 2 interceptions and a bunch of incomplete passes played really well based on what should have happened on those plays. PFF is a company because they produce "stats" like that. Just like Sports Info Solutions does for baseball, football, and basketball. The NHL has some as well, but I'm not well versed in the options there. Welcome to the new world of data and player tracking. Baseball is the most advanced in all this because the game is easier to tie these "stats" to individual players. But every league has them. As for the topic at hand, I am glad to see MLB is making at least slight progress on making their game available to more people in the way most people are consuming entertainment these days. It's not major, but it's at least movement in the right direction.
  15. chpettit19
    Teams have been using far more data than this for years. This is not new to them. The teams that are able to pick out the useful data and use it correctly are the ones that get the biggest advantage. But the stuff now being made public is only a tiny fraction of what the teams have been using for years.
  16. chpettit19
    Well Jeffers is no longer doing better with 2 strikes, but he does cut his swing down. Everyone on the Twins not named Jair Camargo actually swings slower with 2 strikes. Miranda, Correa, Julien, and Castro (all .2 feet shorter) shorten their swing the most. Followed by Santana and Jeffers (.1 feet shorter). I don't know when he started choking up without 2 strikes, but it certainly seems to be helping Jeffers. I think scrapping "prior to 2 strike" approaches is probably a very, very bad idea in the grand scheme of things, but whatever Jeffers is doing is very much working for him.
  17. chpettit19
    Are you able to tell us what approach change you believe took place? Can you define "all or nothing" approach and what is different now than before? Maybe your common sense matches my graphs and charts like it did in economics. Maybe it doesn't. We'll never know if you can't tell us what you believe they're doing different.
  18. chpettit19
    https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-strikes-out-swinging-2bldu0?q=Strikes %3D [2] AND PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0 https://www.mlb.com/video/jordan-romano-foul-to-ryan-jeffers?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] AND Strikes %3D [1] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=MIXED&p=0 It's obviously really hard to tell from this angle, but it looks to me like Jeffers is choked up about the same on the bat with both 1 strike and 2 strikes here. https://www.mlb.com/video/ryan-jeffers-homers-9-on-a-fly-ball-to-left-center-field?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [680777] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0 This one shows a zoomed in shot of his hands at the start. 1 strike on him and he's still a little choked up. I think that is just how he's hitting now. I don't know what changes they've all made to all the things that go into being a successful major league hitter, but I don't see any proof that they've made any drastic changes to their approach. Hit the ball hard, preferably in the air. Hitting 101 for most MLB teams at this point.
  19. chpettit19
    What about their approach now is different than the "all or nothing" approach you believe they used to have? Nobody disagrees that they had a strikeout problem, but what did they stop doing that you believe fixed that problem? I don't know what you mean by "all or nothing" approach so I don't know what you think changed. Here's a chart showing 13 player's average bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/3 (earliest the data goes) to 4/21: Here is a chart showing the same 13 guys bat speed with 2 strikes on them from 4/22 (winning streak start) to 5/13: You can double check my work, but I have Correa (.7), Kirilloff (.4), Castro (.8), Vazquez (.2) and Martin (.4) as slowing their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. I have Larnach (.4), Jeffers (.4), Margot (1), Julien (.6), Kepler (.7), Santana (.6), and Miranda (1.4) as speeding up their 2 strike swings after the winning streak started. And I have Buxton at the exact same. I take the idea that they stopped their "all or nothing" approach to mean, at least in part, that they aren't swinging as hard, especially with 2 strikes. But 7 of the 13 guys have actually been swinging harder with 2 strikes during the successful stretch of games than they were when the offense was struggling. Then comparing fast swing rate I see Correa, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Castro going down. Jeffers, Margot, Julien, Kepler, Santana, and Miranda going up. Buxton, Vazquez, and Martin staying the same. So more have upped that number than lowered it. Squared up percentages have sky-rocketed for Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, margot, Julien, and Castro while also going up for Santana and Miranda. Vazquez has plummeted while Correa, Buxton, Kepler, and Martin have gone down some. Based on all this it sure looks to me like they haven't drastically changed their 2 strike approach, but are simply getting much better results. They're swinging just as hard, if not harder, with 2 strikes than when they were doing poorly, but they're producing much better results. In all counts data: Again, check my work, but I have Correa (.6), Kirilloff (.6) and Castro (.1) as going down. I have Buxton (.6), Larnach (1.4), Jeffers (.7), Margot (1.1), Kepler (2.1), Santana (.4), Miranda (1.3), Vazquez (.1) and Martin (.2) as going up. And Julien staying the same. So 3 guys swinging slower, and 9 swinging faster. The Twins are swinging harder in all counts, including with 2 strikes, now than when they were struggling in early April. I don't see an approach change, I see better success at that approach.
  20. chpettit19
    My stance remains that this division comes down to who's young guys can find the best consistency over 162 games. Cleveland currently scares me the most because I actually think their starting pitching is going to figure it out and get back to closer to their norm, and I don't think their hitting is going to drop that far. They have some big time young prospects who are going to push for jobs as the year goes on. If a couple of them figure it out I think they're going to give the Twins everything they can handle in this division.
  21. chpettit19
    "The Streak" started on April 22. If we use that as the date of when they started to succeed here's some comparisons on 2 strike #s as a team: Hard hit rate- Through 4/21: 28.5%, after 4/21: 32.2% Med hit rate- Through 4/21: 51.6%, after 4/21: 51.9% Soft hit rate- Through 4/21: 19.9%, after 4/21: 15.9% Line drive rate: Through 4/21: 17.7%, after 4/21: 21.5% Ground ball rate: Through 4/21: 46.8%, after 4/21: 39.3% Fly ball rate: Through 4/21: 35.5%, after 4/21: 39.9% HR/FB rate: Through 4/21: 9.1%, after 4/21: 11.9% To me that looks like better success at the same approach. Nearly the same medium hit rate while seeing a real shift from soft contact to hard contact. Significantly fewer ground balls with improved line drive and fly ball rates. And an improved HR/FB rate. Part of this could be some definition differences. What do we all mean by "approach?" That's why I think it's important to discuss what changes people feel were made. But this team has actually hit the ball harder with 2 strikes since they started being successful. Lots of things that could lead to that, but I don't think many people attribute widening stances and choking up with improved hard hit rates (balls with exit velos over 95 MPH). Not saying that isn't a possible answer, but not the first thing people would think of when it comes to hitting the ball harder. (All stats from Fangraphs splits leaderboard filtered for 2 strike counts)
  22. chpettit19
    What was their approach change? As @CCHOF5yearstoolate pointed out, the Twins have been hitting the ball in the air more, and for more power, during this run of success. That's been their approach the whole time. Hit the ball hard in the air because it results in power. Looks to me like they're just being more successful at the approach they've always had.
  23. chpettit19
    Just going to point out that you're attempting to call out people "overreacting" to a small terrible sample because of a small good sample. If he goes back into the tank for the next 20 games what should the reaction be? It's all too small of a sample size to make definitive statements. But, as others have pointed out, even with his recent success he's still been a below average hitter overall at a bat first position. Not sure this is the best time to be claiming victory on any Carlos Santana stance. If Carlos is the best overall player at 1B for the entirety of the season and isn't taking ABs from better players I'll happily admit I was wrong about that signing. I'd still much prefer Rhys Hoskins, but I'll admit I was wrong about a Miranda/Kirilloff platoon as being a better option if Carlos out performs them over the course of the full season. I really hope his numbers are much better than they are currently if it does end up being that he was their best option of current roster players. A 98 OPS+ is not a good outcome for your 1B. I don't care how good their defense is. The Twins better be able to produce better than that at 1B.
  24. chpettit19
    I'd argue for getting rid of the role all together. Why do you have to have a "righty outfield bat?" It's too late at this point, but the decision to find a righty outfield bat instead of the best bat they could was where this problem started. If they weren't so dedicated to platooning as many spots as possible at all costs they never would've brought Margot in. The core of the Margot problem isn't Margot. It's their strategy forcing them into Margot.
  25. chpettit19
    He comments on that, too, but it's nothing that ever makes any of us feel better about it. I don't get the strategy and I don't like the explanations of trying to take advantage of that specific moment.
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