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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    1. 85 2. 1st 3. Twins 4. No 5. No 6. Lee 7. Kirilloff 8. Lopez 9. Duran will be the best, Jax will provide the most value because of the Duran injury 10. Kirilloff
  2. chpettit19
    Will be interesting to see how Rocco handles Kirilloff and Wallner today, and how KC manages their pen in response. Is Kirilloff going to pinch hit for Margot against a righty? Wallner taking over for Castro against a righty? Is there a situation where Kirilloff hits for Santana? How long does Ragans go on opening day? Who are the backend relievers for the Royals? All the lefties will be stacked at the bottom of the order once Ragans is replaced by a righty so there's a situation where he's done after 5 and the pinch hitting begins which could lead to a situation where the game is on the line late and the lefties are all lined up to take on Will Smith or Angel Zerpa if the Royals want. Also a situation where the lefties all only hit once and there's no concerns at all from the platoon strategy. Glad to have real baseball back so we can be discussing in game strategy instead of payrolls and trades!
  3. chpettit19
    I'll start the petition.
  4. chpettit19
    Lewis and Wallner didn't make their debuts in 2023. It's just some technical term stuff happening here. 3 rookies, only 1 debut.
  5. chpettit19
    Not according to the standings on the screen shot. Must be tie breaker giving the Royals 4th place and the Twins 5th. I'll have to read the CBA again and figure out where they're getting that boost from.
  6. chpettit19
    Hey, I don't make the standings, I just report them. Well your post reported them and I commented on them.
  7. chpettit19
    I've got them at 84-86 wins and a division title held onto despite losing 2 of 3 in their season ending series against Baltimore because the Sox sneak out a win against Detroit in game 162 to give the Twins the division by 1 game. Then they win 1 playoff game and hit the links for the winter.
  8. chpettit19
    Twins in last place already!
  9. chpettit19
    Lee becoming Polanco would be a very nice result. I think Zach Neto has something to say about Lee having been the best college hitter so far to come out of that draft, though. Lee doesn't look like a star to me, but he does look like a heck of a baseball player who can make an all star team in his career year while putting up very nice numbers every year and being a vital part of a really good lineup. That's Jorge Polanco. He looks like he's just about ready and I'm excited to see what he can do when he gets to the big show.
  10. chpettit19
    Isn't it more likely that the Twins never even tried to sign him? Pohlad flat out said they weren't signing any of Boras' guys. Don't think this is a situation that has anything at all to do with Montgomery being into us or not.
  11. chpettit19
    If the pen is as deep and good as people seem to believe it'll be when healthy there's no need for a fireman. If they're all able to be late inning, shutdown type arms then it shouldn't matter who throws when. Just play your matchups and ignore everything else. I assume the Twins will plant Duran right back in the 9th inning once he's healthy and rolling again. I assume Jax will take his 8th inning spot at that point as well. I'd guess Thielbar goes back to being the mid-inning fireman guy when he's healthy. And the rest will get assignments based on matchups at different parts of the opponents lineup in the 6th and 7th (and 8th and/or 9th when Jax and/or Duran are down for the night). I don't think Duran is going back to a fireman role.
  12. chpettit19
    Good for him. Hope he does well.
  13. chpettit19
    He's able to opt out after this season if he makes 10 starts, so it's much like the Correa and Snell type deals that are really 1 year deals.
  14. chpettit19
    I'd take them all on minor league deals. Not in the sense that they should sign them all, but just in the sense that signing minor league deals is a good strategy and any of those guys are worth having around just in case. Clevinger would be my first choice, though.
  15. chpettit19
    The central is almost entirely about who's young guys step up and establish themselves. Everyone but Chicago is in pretty close to the same boat as they're all graduating prospects at the same time and it'll come down to which ones can adapt and establish themselves. Cleveland should be assumed to have the arms until they don't. They've earned that assumption with the way they've churned out arms. Health is a different story for them, though. Only concern with their pitching is if it can stay healthy. Their offense will largely come down to what Rocchio can do early, and how soon Manzardo and Delauter debut, and what they can do. Another key will be whether Andres Gimenez can bounce back to his 2022 production or if he's more of the 2023 version. They were the team set to take over this division after 2022 as they had a nice young core hoping to establish itself backed by a top end pitching staff. Pitching got hurt and the young core took steps backwards in 2023. We'll see if any of the holdover youngsters bounce back and if any of their new ones can step in. I have them around .500 this year. Winning between 79 and 83 games.
  16. chpettit19
    Life long short stop Jorge Polanco can handle first base I'm pretty sure. They moved Arraez there midseason. Polanco actually offers significantly more roster flexibility than 1B/DH only Santana. DeSclafani is hurt and more likely to throw 0 pitches for the Twins than provide any kind of production at all. It's the point of my disagreement with the idea in this article that all pitchers are injury risks so it's all the same. He was a significantly larger injury risk than the average pitcher and he's staring TJ surgery in the face now. Topa is 32 and has 1 successful major league season to his name. I hope he's good, but he's not different than any other incredibly volatile relief arm. So for the 2024 Twins the FO turned Jorge Polanco into Carlos Santana and a reliever in his 30s with 1 good season to his name. You're not going to sell me on that being an upgrade in talent, or lineup flexibility. Give me Polanco, Lorenzen, and a random cheap reliever (they got Jackson for 1.5 this year, had Hoffman and Coulombe in camp on minor league deals last year that they just let walk as examples of the random minor league deals you can find to replace a Topa more years than not). That trade hurt the 2024 Twins because trading for injured pitchers is a bad strategy that the Twins need to stop trying to make work.
  17. chpettit19
    That's true for Archer, Morrison, and Morales, but Lynn was 31 when the Twins signed him coming off a 33 start, 186 inning season with a 3.43 ERA in his age 30 season. That's almost identical to Montgomery last year (32 starts, 188 innings, 3.20 ERA in age 30 season. Both even started their age 30 seasons in St Louis!). I'd sign Montgomery in a heartbeat. He was my "realistic" target when the offseason started before we knew about the significant payroll decrease. Lynn's problem was that he was so cranky over not getting paid that he let it effect his start to the season (if we believe the reports). Not sure how Montgomery would/will handle things (or Snell with the Giants for that matter).
  18. chpettit19
    The Twins chose Keuchel. I don't know what else you want me to say. The Twins had both Dallas Keuchel and Louie Varland in AAA on August 6th when they needed a starting pitcher for the Twins in games that mattered. They chose Dallas Keuchel. Louie Varland won't get credit from me for being "a better 5th starter option than almost every other team in baseball has" until he shows he's actually a major league starter. Cuz as of this second he hasn't proven that. As shown by the fact that the Twins chose Dallas Keuchel over him last year. He wasn't good enough then and he doesn't get credit for being good enough now just because time has elapsed. I'm glad you think he's one of the best 5th starters in baseball, though. Who are the Twins replacing on the roster when they call Lee up in this hypothetical situation? If Santana is still on the roster when Lee is promoted it's incredibly likely that Lee is replacing an injured starter, right? If that same starter were injured and Polanco was on the team instead of Santana I don't see how it'd change the equation in any way. Or do you think they're going to call Lee up to replace Farmer as the short side platoon, defensive replacement, part time backup infielder? Jorge Polanco wouldn't take anymore ABs from young players than Santana would because the young players that matter would only be called up to replace an injured starter and would be taking that job over full-time. Unless you think they're going to DFA Carlos Santana to call up Brooks Lee. I can't think of many examples of this regime making such moves, though. My "underlying narrative" is that the Twins didn't think Varland was good enough last year, traded for an injured starter that they planned to place over him this year because that injured starter was cheaper than a real starter, and that plan has blown up and instead they are forced to put in the starter they didn't want to start and have hurt their offense while hoping a 32 year old reliever with 1 successful major league season can make up the difference. I'm not "just asking questions." I'm flat out saying that was horrible roster management for the 2024 Minnesota Twins and made the team worse because they think there's value in taking on extra injury risk when taking on that risk has lead to incredibly poor results nearly every time they've done it. We're way off track here, though. You can respond however you'd like to make your final rebuttal, but we need to stop this discussion as it's gotten too far off of the main topic of the Twins trading for injured pitchers.
  19. chpettit19
    All I'm saying about Polanco is that he's a very clear 1 for 1 replacement for Santana. Lots of ways they could move guys around to get them all in the order. When 38-year old Carlos Santana is starting for you everyday I don't accept for a single second that Jorge Polanco wouldn't be a starter. To my eyes the Twins thought they could boost the pen and rotation while dropping some in the lineup. So far the rotation boost looks to be a complete loss, but we'll see what the pen boost looks like.
  20. chpettit19
    I haven't implied that Varland is worse than Keuchel I have stated over and over again that he was beaten out by Dallas Keuchel last year. I don't know how else to say that more clearly than this. Last year the Twins needed a starting pitcher while they were in the heart of a division battle in early August and they chose Dallas Keuchel over Louie Varland. They didn't think Louie Varland was good enough to start games that mattered for them over Dallas Keuchel. That isn't an opinion. That is what happened. My point isn't that Varland is going to bust. My point is that he was slated for AAA because he hasn't yet shown he was good enough to be in the majors. My point is that they brought in an injured MLB pitcher with the plans of putting him in their rotation over Varland because they didn't think Varland was proven yet and because he was cheaper to acquire and that plan has now blown up. Carlos Santana is set to bat everyday against righties. It simply isn't true that Polanco would take ABs from young players. He's a 1 for 1 replacement for Carlos Santana who is set to start everyday for the 2024 Minnesota Twins. I haven't said I don't expect the Twins to win the division. I'm not being blindly pessimistic. I'm not being pessimistic at all, actually. The fact that you're taking me questioning a completely unproven starting pitcher who couldn't beat out Dallas Keuchel last year as blind pessimism says all I need to know. I expect the Twins to win 85-87 games and likely win the division. I don't think it'll be a cake walk as I expect at least 2 other teams to finish at or above .500. If that's blind pessimism I guess I'm just a super negative person.
  21. chpettit19
    They're paying DeSclafani 4 million. Polanco is being paid 10.5. How much of the extra 6.5 were the Twins not prepared to pay? Those are miniscule numbers.
  22. chpettit19
    They still need another starting pitcher, that's the point of my disagreement with this article. Relievers are cheap, fungible assets as I already pointed out. And Polanco, Kirilloff, Farmer, and Julien could all play 1B. I would've been quite happy to trade more than Polanco for a real starting pitcher. I'd have traded anyone not named Jenkins from the system. But we're way off topic now. My fault, but we need to get back to the topic of the thread.
  23. chpettit19
    Carlos Santana. There are 9 spots in a starting lineup. A whole bunch of you just seem to be unable to accept this fact. Jorge Polanco would easily be one of the Twins 9 best hitters and he'd start everyday because there's a DH spot so many of you seem to forget about. Carlos Santana hasn't hit righties in 3 years and he's about to start against them everyday. The idea that Jorge Polanco wouldn't start for this team is nonsense. I'm not going to have the same "less revenue team building strategy" talk with you. We have different goals. Accept that fact. A whole bunch of reporters disagreed with your stance on the Twins spending, but that's not going to stop you from telling us all how wrong they are.
  24. chpettit19
    It certainly didn't make it easy, that's for sure. But choosing to pay Santana and DeSclafani instead of Polanco wasn't necessary to still cut payroll. That was a choice they made and I don't think it was a good one. There were other ways to cut payroll that I don't think would've hurt the talent level as much. But I'm aware I'm amongst the minority when it comes to my view on Polanco and what he would provide to the lineup. To tie this all back to the topic of this article, I would've been far happier with a Polanco trade that returned them an actual MLB starting pitcher. Even if it meant a lesser return in the rest of the package. I think trading for another injured starter was a massive mistake for the 2024 Twins. And I really hope they quit targeting injured starters.
  25. chpettit19
    Again, never said people are actually saying that (other than a few posts here and there), what I am saying is that people are acting like it's ridiculous to question things because this team is so loaded. You are currently calling me "full-blown ridiculous" for questioning Louie Varland's ability to be a major league starter yet you can't comprehend how I could suggest people are acting like this team is super loaded? Cool. Show me the articles early in the summer where they were discussing Louie coming out of the bullpen in the playoffs. The Twins decided Keuchel was better. I'm sorry if you disagree with that, but the Twins were trying to win baseball games last year and they chose Keuchel. Yes, Varland was a rookie, but that doesn't mean he's automatically going to be better this year. Last year the Twins decided he wasn't good enough to make starts for the team while they tried to win the division. Last year they decided he wasn't as good as Dallas Keuchel. I don't know how you can argue with that when it's literally what happened. He doesn't automatically become good enough this year because he was a rookie last year. Plenty of rookies get sent back down and never get better. In fact, the vast majority of them work out that way. You can say he's a rookie as many times as you'd like, it doesn't change the fact that last year he wasn't good enough to be a starter over Dallas Keuchel and he doesn't automatically become better by not being a rookie this year. Polanco would DH like Kirilloff is going to do now. Or Julien would. Who's going down when Lee is called up that's going to allow Santana to platoon? And why couldn't Polanco have done the same platooning as Santana in that situation? Give me your starting lineups against righties and lefties where Polanco is taking ABs from guys. You think a Twins team winning somewhere in the mid-80s worth of games is going to walk to the division. Cool. I disagree. We'll see. I have no idea what "you are layin" means, but we disagree. Nothing wrong with that. I hope Louie is great. I hope the lineup doesn't need Polanco. I hope they win 100 games. I hope they walk away with the division with 87 wins. I'm sorry if I don't have blind optimism that those things are going to happen. We don't seem to be making any progress in our discussion so I don't see the value in continuing it.
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