chpettit19

I'm not being contrary, I asked you a question. I don't know what his defense is considered to be like so I was asking if you felt that'd be a reason they wouldn't trust him to catch. This thread is asking why Camargo wouldn't get the chance to hit when 8 guys (including Christian Vazquez) are hitting under .200. If the answer is "his defense is so bad behind the plate they don't trust him to catch" then ok, that would make sense. But this thread is literally asking why they wouldn't try him in the lineup when the lineup can't score and it's costing the team games. Vazquez is hitting .133/.156/.233/.390. How bad does Camargo's defense, even as a rookie, have to be to not be trusted over that?

Is his defense a significant concern? I haven't really watched him catch in St Paul so I don't know. Weird to have a catcher on your 40-man who you don't trust to catch your pitchers. If you can't start him with any of your pitchers he's a pretty useless player unless you're going to transition him to 1B/DH.

Farmer is expensive. Farmer himself said he was surprised they tendered him at that price. When the player says they're surprised to get that much money it's pretty clear they got paid too much. Especially now that we see he wasn't even the primary SS backup. They stated in spring training that Santana was their everyday 1B to start the season. This was their plan. Injuries aren't what have driven the Santana PAs. They believed he was good enough to be their everyday 1B and said so early on. They were predictably wrong on him. It's looking like they may actually be adjusting early on which is a nice new side of them if it sticks. Julien was an option at 1B last year so it's weird he wouldn't be this year. The pitching has been as up and down as many expected, but definitely not the main cause of the early season record being so bad. Hard to find any pitching staff that could win with how this offense is performing.

Dang, and Polanco isn't good enough to start for this team so Kepler probably would've had a 200 wRC+ since. Max Kepler was terrible all spring. Looked like he had no idea what was coming at him in the opener and had some of the worst swings I've ever seen before he fouled that ball off his leg. Max's career norms are also to be really, really bad for long stretches. Like having the vast majority of fans calling for him to be DFA'd bad. Him struggling isn't outside of his norms. There is no reason to believe after the spring he had, and how his career has played out, and how the rest of the team has continued to struggle, that Max getting the extra 40ish PAs that went to Austin Martin and Manuel Margot instead that this team would be performing better. That is the claim that was made. That the extra PAs to this point in the season that would've gone to Kepler had he not been hurt would've had a significant impact on this offense's performance. The poster wrongly suggested Wallner got the extra PAs, but they went to Martin and Margot for the most part. There is no reason to believe that Kepler would've performed better than Austin Martin has in 36 PAs. None at all.

The premise that a guy who's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going was suddenly going to be a 103 OPS+ hitter the next 10 games he played in is absurd. As shown by the rest of the team that's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going still looking lost now. Wallner had much better career numbers than he's shown this year and didn't just magically snap out of it after 21 PAs. There's no reason to believe the eternally struggling to figure out hitting Max Kepler would've either. The idea that Max Kepler would've still been struggling 10 games later isn't absurd. It's actually the far more likely scenario.

I follow now. That's fair. Even though I'd argue he didn't look any better in Florida so I'm not sold that this is just injury related. He's looked lost since his first spring training game.

Master of deleting all context strikes again. The claim made was that this team would be performing better if Kepler hadn't been replaced by Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer. I didn't say anything about the sample size or the next 50 games. The other poster claimed this team would be performing better right now with Kepler. Then they tried to use his career numbers against the other guy's season numbers. Pretty sure their season numbers are small sample size as well. Comparing Kepler's career while ignoring how he's performed all spring and in his small regular season sample size while doing the opposite and only using the other 4's small regular season sample size while ignoring their careers is nonsense. No, Kepler won't OPS+ -56 all season. But that's the player that was hurt. Does anyone think Wallner, Santana (I actually do expect him to suck all year), Castro, and Farmer are going to continue with their terrible OPS+ numbers all year? I would make a very substantial bet that nobody is expecting that. So it was a bad argument. Kepler was one of the guys sucking so him being replaced by other guys sucking wasn't actually a downgrade. If you want to talk about career numbers then Wallner getting sent down is actually the bigger blow to the offense. But I don't see many people arguing that point. Because the performance right now is what matters.

What injury did he have on opening day? But even if he was it doesn't change the fact that the 2024 MN Twins didn't lose some top performer to injury that was then replaced with terrible performers. Max Kepler was performing terribly so being replaced by guys performing terribly isn't actually a downgrade. The argument that was made was that players who were/are struggling (Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer specifically were named) got more PAs instead of Kepler. Max Kepler wasn't performing significantly better than any of them. And if he was injured on opening day he was also injured all of spring apparently. I don't remember seeing any reports about him struggling with any injuries this spring, but I certainly could've missed something. The Twins are missing a quality performing Kepler. But they're also missing quality performing Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer. The Kepler that got hurt and was replaced by those guys isn't missed and they aren't performing any worse than he was.

Why? If the argument is that this team would be better with Lewis, Correa, and Kepler then we should take into consideration what Lewis, Correa, and Kepler were doing when they got hurt. Kepler was 1 for 21 when he got hurt. Claiming the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter. Your direct quote was "guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot fewer plate appearances if Lewis, Correa, and Kepler were healthy." Kepler was one of the guys "who have sucked." I don't know how you can argue that. You used Matt Wallner in your example of guys who have sucked getting more plate appearances. If you're going to "put more weight on Kepler's career 103 OPS+" than a five-game sample why wouldn't you put more weight on Wallner's career 126 OPS+? Can't have it both ways. Either you're going off the current season's suckiness or you're not. Willi Castro was a 107 OPS+ hitter last year. So why would him getting more ABs now that the 103 OPS+ Kepler is hurt matter if it's not about how they were/are actually performing this season? Yes, the one you responded to claimed Shane Bieber being hurt was more impactful than the Twins injuries. You spun that into just comparing offensive injuries instead because that, like your use of Kepler's career stats vs other guy's season stats, fits your narrative.

Lewis' injury has had a significant effect for sure. Kepler sucked himself all spring and to start the season so replacing a sucking Kepler with a sucking anybody else doesn't really change much of anything. Arguing they're really missing his -56 OPS+ isn't a great selling point. Correa just got hurt and many of those ABs have been replaced with Jeffers DHing. It certainly matters, but it's not as drastic as you suggested. And when compared to Shane Bieber getting hurt for Cleveland it's pretty close since Lewis is the only injury that's significantly hurt the Twins to this point.

Right!.... sized...

And Jeffers has probably gotten more ABs with the injuries as he likely wouldn't be getting everyday ABs if not for the injuries. So they were forced to put their current best hitter in the lineup more.

The question is if the pitchers would actually back off of what they're doing now or if they'd just keep throwing max effort and the pitches would just be even better and it'd be even harder to hit. I don't think you'd see a significant reduction in velocity, and that's the leading problem in stress on arms. I think fixing this issue comes down to convincing teams and players to quit throwing max effort so frequently. I'm not sure how you convince guys to do that when it's well known that it's a significant advantage in getting hitters out. And getting hitters out is what gets kids drafted and guys paid. It's also what keeps baseball execs and coaches employed. Who's going to be the first team to take a chance on backing off velocity to hopefully save arms while taking the chance the slower pitches don't just lead to them all getting fired because their pitchers aren't successful enough? It's not an easy problem to solve. It's putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Convincing people to take a step back is not easy.

Lots of season left, but the incredibly questionable moves that many of us spent the offseason complaining about are all coming up as losses early. DeSclafani being the only starter they brought in was doomed from the jump. I think Paddack will be solid in his limited innings most of the year, but banking on him and Varland playing core roles in replacing Gray and Maeda's innings was always a massive bet. Not a good bet to this point, and the depth behind them is nothing to be excited about yet. The lineup is very likely to regress to the mean and improve throughout the year, but the rotation is teetering on the edge and is likely to see some pretty brutal dips with any of the injuries that are coming. A 38-year old Santana who can't hit righties never made sense as an add. Never. Not for a single second. It looked even more questionable when they said they planned to use him as their everyday 1B. Again, he can't hit righties. Hasn't been able to for years. He's playing a bat first position in a lineup that had plenty of questions already (for some of us at least) and can't hit against 75% of the pitchers in the league, but they brought him in as their everyday guy. Never made sense. I expect Farmer's numbers to improve as the season moves forward and he faces more lefties, but he was never worth that contract, and that was even when we thought he'd be the primary backup SS. If he's a short side of a platoon 2B/3B bat he's really not worth that deal. When the player themselves publicly state they were surprised to get the deal they did it's hard to argue that the team didn't misplay the situation. The Twins believe in platoon splits and veterans. They cut payroll (that's 100% on Pohlad, not Falvine) and answered by making bad bets on short side platoon veteran bats and a starter who lost his job last year because he wasn't good enough to beat out Dallas Keuchel late in the year. Farmer isn't this bad, but Santana may actually be. And Varland likely isn't much better at all as a starter than he's shown to this point. Things will get better, but this team is worse than last year's and while the FO had fewer dollars to play with they still deserve blame for the roster choices they made. The injuries can't be blamed more than a little either. Injuries happen every year. When you choose to build your depth around short side platoon bats you can't complain when the injuries everybody knows will happen happen and you're stuck with short side platoon bats playing everyday. Really can't complain when you bring in a short side platoon bat to be your everyday 1B.

Younger? Matt Wallner is 289 days younger than Trevor Larnach. I know you're not going to try to argue that 289 days is a significant age difference. Options? Yes, he does have more options and that's why I mentioned it in my very first post that he'd have more time to figure things out with the Twins because they can send him up and down. .283/.390/.447/.837 123 OPS+ in 287 PAs at age 22. .231/.352/.461/.813 126 OPS+ in 352 PAs at ages 24-26. First guy is Logan Morrison. Second is Wallner. Guys have very good success early in their careers before the league figures them out and it's up to them to adjust back. It happens all the time. A scorching hot 254 PAs in 2023 doesn't make him Mike Trout. Houston put out the Wallner blueprint in the postseason last year. Can't hit in. Can't hit down. Especially soft down and away. When your argument is "well if he can just be Mike Trout in the rest of the zone he's ok" I'm going to go ahead and stick with he has an exploitable hole that has been exploited to the tune of a 51.5% strikeout rate and he's going to need to make an adjustment if he wants to sustain a successful MLB career. A 36.3% whiff rate and 31.5% k rate in his 254 PAs last year is reason to doubt he can maintain his 140 OPS+ production, especially once the league gets the blueprint on how to get him out. Which they have. A 68.6% zone contact rate compared to the league average of 82% is a reason to doubt. For reference, Mike Trout's zone contact rate is 83.9%. It's why he can have a hole at the top of the zone and still dominate. Because when he swings at his pitches he makes contact. Really, really good contact. Matt Wallner does not. Matt Wallner swings and misses a lot. Matt Wallner has very real adjustments he's going to need to make if he's going to succeed at the major league level.

Ok? And? Are you suggesting there isn't a book out on Wallner that you can beat him in and soft down and away? Because that's what every pitcher he faces is doing to him. I have no idea what you're trying to argue with me about. Trevor Larnach struggles with MLB off-speed pitches so MLB pitchers throw him league leading numbers of off-speed pitches and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career. Matt Wallner struggles with MLB pitches in and down so MLB pitchers throw him an extreme number of pitches in and down and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career. Those are my statements. I don't know why you're telling me Larnach and Wallner aren't similar players when I didn't say they were, and I'm not sure why you're bringing up Mike Trout. Matt Wallner has massive holes in his swing and they're being exploited at a staggering rate right now. Trevor Larnach has a real weakness recognizing and hitting off-speed pitches and it's been exploited for years now. If you'd like to dispute those statements feel free. Not sure why you're arguing anything else when that's all I'm saying.

Or 34% and 51.5%. But, yes, they both strike out way too much because they can't hit certain pitches or pitches in certain locations.

Good thing I didn't compare them in that way then. I said they're in similar spots in terms of where their futures as MLB players go. Didn't compare them as players in anyway beyond the fact that the league knows how to get them out and they have to show they can close those holes or their careers will never take off. Larnach struggles against pitch types while Wallner struggles with pitch locations. The league knows that and neither will ever succeed in the majors if they can't make adjustments to the very clear and obvious ways the league is getting them out.

Larnach and Wallner are both in very similar spots as far as where their futures go. Wallner's extra options means he's going to have a longer time to figure it out with the Twins moving forward, but they both have books out on them with every MLB team. Everybody knows how to get them out. Trevor needs to learn to recognize and hit MLB off-speed pitches. Matt needs to learn to hit things on the inner third of the plate and down. Their MLB careers depend on them being able to figure those things out. From all reports they're both incredibly hard workers who put in the effort. I hope they both figure it out. With the Twins preferably.

Kemp can play LF. If they're comfortable with Margot in CF (which they better be since they traded for him for that exact reason) a Martin for Kemp swap wouldn't really be surprising at all.

Thank you. That's all I wanted to add. You seem to have things under control on this one so I'll just sit back and enjoy the show.

Can I add that even if the paper lineup of a Julien/Farmer Platoon, Kirilloff/Santana Platoon, Lewis and Correa lasted past April there is still a DH position for Polanco to play?

Wallner has a massive hole covering the entire inner third of the plate, but especially down and in. He can't hit those pitches. And once you get him focused on trying to hit those inner third pitches you drop something soft down and away and he's finished. Houston did their scouting before the ALDS against the Twins and showed the world how you get him out. This season has just been pitcher after pitcher saying "it's coming inner third, hit it if you can" over and over and he can't hit it. The league adjusted. He's miles away from adjusting back. From the sounds of it he knew this would be a problem and spent the offseason putting in work to try to close that hole. It hasn't worked. AAA is probably the place for him the second Larnach or Lee or anyone is ready.

Softball style.

Had to right-size their rotation this year.