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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    And apparently don't care that much about their ace's preferred catcher.
  2. chpettit19
    @Bodie and @Peter I see you both disagree with my statement that the Twins are 2nd in baseball in scoring guys from third with less than 2 outs (you can go look it up here if you don't believe me) and/or that the pitcher is also a pro and paid to not let guys score. I assume your stance on the Twins not being able to score the tying run in the bottom of the 10th is reversed when the Twins are the away team? If they score 0 or 1 run in the top of the 10th you believe the other team should score 100% of the time against the Twins pitching staff in the bottom of the 10th, correct? The Twins shouldn't have any pitchers capable of stopping another team from scoring a runner from 2nd base with no outs? So all extra inning games should only be won by a team that can score at least 2 runs in an inning? Or is it just the Twins who are held to the standard of always scoring that runner when they only need 1 run?
  3. chpettit19
    The MN Twins are 2nd in all of baseball at scoring a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs at a 59% success rate. League average is 51.8%. As it turns out the guy on the mound is a professional pitcher, too. He's paid to not let pro hitters score those guys.
  4. chpettit19
    I'm also fascinated to see where his contracts go from here. Interested to see if San Diego even tenders him an arb deal. Will be really telling about what the league thinks about him and that 1 tool when we see what he makes next year and moving forward.
  5. chpettit19
    Runs and RBI aren't stats I ever use to define how good or bad an individual player is. Just providing info for the other poster who suggested Arraez may be more valuable cuz he scores more cuz he's on more. He doesn't really score more, though. But I certainly wouldn't use that to say he isn't good. I'd take him on my team any day. But I do think it demonstrates why being a singles hitter isn't just automatically super valuable if you're slow. I love Arraez, but there's a reason guys like him aren't considered as valuable as guys with a lower BA but higher slugging.
  6. chpettit19
    Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. From May 7 through June 2 (so the 4 series after they finished with the Bats horrid pitching staff) Matt Wallner had a .180/.306./.427/.733 quad slash. A basically month long "bust" stretch can't just be written off as noise. Matt Wallner was not good until early June, when they played the Bats again. I don't know why that can't be an acceptable answer to you, but going 14 for 89 in AAA is not just bad BABIP luck. Actually, if you take the entire stretch between series against the Louisville Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764 in 31 games and 133 PAs. He was 22 for 112 with 43 Ks (K in nearly 40% of his ABs) between series against that horrid staff. Listen, you claimed he was "raking for months." That isn't true. He went .194/.256/.333/.590 in April in the 9 games before he played the Bats. In the 31 games between series against the Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764. There's your trend. In the first series against the Bats he went .240/.296/.480/.776. In the last series he went .519/.552/.1.148/.1.700 with a .500 BABIP. He hasn't hit over .200, had an OBP over .308, slugged over .455, or had an OPS over .764 outside of his absolute dominance of the Louisville Bats. A 31 games stretch of .196/.308/.455/.764 is not "raking." I'm sorry. I'm not going to continue with this conversation. Outside of the Louisville Bats series there has been absolutely no sustained stretch of production that comes anywhere close to "raking." There just hasn't been. He's dominated that pitching staff and been held under a .200 average against everyone else. That isn't raking. It just isn't. And there's nothing there to suggest he started finding his swing early. There just isn't. You don't get to just write off all his struggles as noise and claim that his dominance over a single opponent is actually the real Matt Wallner. Let's see what he does in the next few series against some non-Bats staffs.
  7. chpettit19
    Deeper look: Of 199 players with at least 200 PAs, he ranks 51st in runs per game and 82nd in runs per plate appearance. Steven Kwan, similar player, but significantly faster, leads in both runs per game and runs per PA. I'd say Luis is not scoring runs at the rate one would hope based on his ability to get to 1st base frequently (he's 35th in OBP in the same sample group). He's not fast so he struggles to go first to third, first to home, and 2nd to home. I don't think you should point to his run scoring acumen as evidence of him being super valuable.
  8. chpettit19
    FYI, Luis Arraez has scored 41 runs this year. That is 33rd in baseball. He has stepped to the plate 327 times. That is 11th in baseball. Make what you will of those stats.
  9. chpettit19
    Baseball America has him at #66, and based on Fangraphs article on their top 100 about a month ago he'll be on theirs when they do their mid-season update. So, according to at least 2 lists, he is a global top-100 prospect.
  10. chpettit19
    When so many guys make such huge jumps it does raise some questions about the competition they're facing. I'd very much like to see Wallner, Severino, Helman, and Keirsey (when he's back) continue to dominate, and have Julien and Kirilloff join them, too. Will be fun to watch their performance against other teams the next few weeks.
  11. chpettit19
    No, keep writing your own! I'm just here for extra support 🙂 Sometimes it's fun to respond to something and then go back and scroll to see who's agreed or disagreed already. Keeps us a little unbiased at least. Or so I'd like to think.
  12. chpettit19
    I don't know all of the Dodgers options, but I'm not sure why people think they'd want our 3rd string SS to fill in for Mookie. Farmer can't even backup SS here, but we think the Dodgers want him to be their starter for 6 to 8 weeks? I find that hard to believe. What makes him a better option than Rojas, Kike, or Taylor? Kyle Farmer vs Rojas for 2024: Why would the Dodgers give the Twins anything for Kyle Farmer?
  13. chpettit19
    I'd be shocked if the Twins went with a 12 man staff for any considerable amount of time. They do everything they can to make it a 14 or 15 man staff by sending guys down, calling guys up, DFAing guys, etc. A 12 man staff just isn't something they seem to think is an option at all.
  14. chpettit19
    2 and 11 pitches over 64 and 59.1 innings sure seem like things that don't really matter at all. He's essentially been a 3 pitch pitcher since 2020. If he needs a 4th pitch at the age of 37 to be effective he's probably not going to be effective anymore.
  15. chpettit19
    Yeah, I just saw the Severino snippet on the site about him going ballistic last week as well. The Bats' arms helped boost a lot of numbers for the Saints' bats.
  16. chpettit19
    While I still believe the Twins need a big bat for the heart of their order, I'm not trading Keaschall for a rental.
  17. chpettit19
    Then your argument is he found his swing in 10 games? Since that's all you're cutting out. 10 games is all it took? And he's been "raking" ever since? Absurd. He has seemed to find his swing in the last 2 weeks. Not "months" ago. Your claim of him "raking for months" is absurd. His month of May was a .741 OPS. There's one of your "commonly used data sets." Your claim of him "raking for months" is wrong. He hasn't been. We're 17 days beyond that "commonly used data set" of "a calendar month" where his OPS was .741. He hasn't raked for months, he's raked for 2+ weeks. I don't know why you can't say that since it's the clear and obvious situation. His OPS at the end of May was .679. He flat out hasn't been "raking for months." He is very clearly comfortable against the Louisville Bats pitching staff as they were the team he lit up for a 4 game stretch in early May before completely cratering again, and they're the team he just got done lighting up for the last week. You're attempting to take advantage of an incredibly small sample size to claim he's raked for "months" when it simply isn't true. Again, his OPS for May was .741. Suggesting he was raking during the month of May is ignoring all fact and reason. You simply can't be "raking for months" when your last calendar month was a .741 OPS. Sorry.
  18. chpettit19
    You skipped his first 10 games in AAA. Why? That's 20% of the sample size. You're doing every bit the cherry picking that others are. Yes, you do have to pick a point, but why wouldn't that point be when he got to AAA? Why don't you want those 10 games included if 10 games is too small of a sample size to matter anyways? Here, I'll do the same thing, but from the time he got to AAA until his 42nd game: First 10 Games: .520 OPS 20 Games: .763 OPS 30 Games: .641 OPS 40 Games: .737 OPS 42 Games: .766 OPS So 42 games into his 52 game stint he had a .766 OPS. 52 games in he has an .882 OPS. That sure makes it look like he's been a below average hitter for 80% of his time in AAA while the last 20% were out of this world. If he'd really been "raking for months" why was his OPS 1.5 months into his 2 month stint below .800? There was no "apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology." There were 10 and 13 game chunks. So just under 2 full series to just over 2 full series. I'm sorry you have to exaggerate my "methodology" to fit your narrative.
  19. chpettit19
    His contract is going to be one of the most fascinating we've seen in some time. I'm quite interested to see where teams value him in terms of money. 1 more year of arbitration before hitting the market before his age 29 season. Is San Diego going to have talks about whether he's even worth his last arb number? Will be quite interesting.
  20. chpettit19
    Probably shouldn't get on people for "cherry picking" when you chose to ignore his initial stretch in St Paul and cherry picked May 1 as your starting point for "months" of raking. He's actually been in AAA for almost exactly 2 months so it's pretty clearly cherry picking to ignore the bad stretch to start before calling out others for cherry picking. He's been very good in AAA overall (.250/.332/.550/.882 in 52 games). But he has also very clearly been either very cold or very hot. I don't know why that's bad to point out. It took a 2 week stretch (13 games) of a .513 OPS in the majors to get him demoted. The initial stretch you chose to cherry pick out was a 10 game stretch of .520 OPS. Then he went on that 10 game stretch of a 1.000 OPS to start May. Before absolutely cratering to a .356 OPS over the next 13 games (remember, 13 games were enough to get him demoted in the first place). And now he's working on his 3rd week of a 1.300+ OPS and we all hope it continues for the rest of the year. But it seems awfully fair to point out that almost 4 of his 8 weeks in AAA have been as bad or worse than the 2 weeks it took to get him demoted in the first place.
  21. chpettit19
    May 2021- 1.005 OPS July (didn't play in June) 2021- 1.091 OPS April 2022- .741 OPS May 2022- .984 OPS June 2022- 1.214 OPS July 2022- .766 OPS April 2023- .889 OPS May 2023- 1.081 OPS June 2023- 1.020 OPS July 2023- .695 OPS April 2024- .513 OPS in Minneapolis, .499 OPS in St Paul May 2024- .741 OPS June 2024- 1.326 OPS I'm failing to see this "notoriously horrible first half hitter." I have no idea where that narrative comes from, but it isn't accurate. This year is very clearly an outlier.
  22. chpettit19
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dog-ate-my-prospect/ This article has been passed around on a few other threads and thought it'd be worth adding here as some context on how well the Twins develop. Not going to lie, they're higher than I'd have guessed.
  23. chpettit19
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5557861/2024/06/14/mlb-draft-biggest-misses-2014-astros-brady-aiken/ Keith Law did a pair of articles over at The Athletic about the 2014 draft. I thought it was a good reminder of how hard drafting and developing is and how many flat out misses there are in drafts. His article on the biggest misses that year included 20 first round picks. Nick Gordon being among them. I know people are disappointed in what Nick ended up becoming, but the first 2 picks in that draft (Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek) never made it to the majors. The number 6 pick (Alex Jackson) has accumulated -1.4 WAR. That's 3 top 10 picks who never reached the majors or have been bad there. Gordon has 0.4 WAR so he's nothing to be excited about, but this drafting stuff is hard. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5556843/2024/06/14/mlb-draft-2014-redraft-trea-turner/ Law's other article was doing a "redraft" of that year. Trea Turner- Matt Chapman-Aaron Nola-Logan Webb-Dylan Cease were his 1-5 picks. No Twins picks made his 30 man 1 round draft. Overall, I just thought it was an interesting look back at a draft from 10 years ago.
  24. chpettit19
    Kyle Farmer as an everyday SS is a disaster of an idea. At this point he isn't even the backup shortstop. Royce Lewis has played 80 games in 3 seasons. He was expected to debut a year earlier even so if you really want to get into it he's played 80 games in 4 years. If you're not expecting him to get hurt you're not paying attention. At this point, he's no different than Buxton. Banking on him to be a 150+ games played guy is ignoring a whole lot of reality over 4 seasons. The injury happening on opening day isn't the point. If he'd miss June and July you're still stuck with no real SS. Nobody knew Miranda was going to bounce back like this either. If you're going to take the hindsight knowledge of his performance into account you don't get to ignore the hindsight knowledge of Lewis being hurt. Which was the far more predictable thing at the start of the year. Sonny could've been signed for the cost of Santana, Farmer, Margot, and Vazquez. It's far easier to replace all 4 of them than it is to replace Carlos Correa. Lee also missed the first 2 months of the season hurt. And he has a career .755 OPS at AAA. That's not "knocking on the door to the majors." Fans hope he's in the majors soon, and an above average player, but beyond prospect rankings and draft position he hasn't actually shown he can do that. If you believe Carlos Correa isn't worth his money I hope your stance is that the Twins should never sign any stars. This is what they cost. And he is a star. Building a team around only pre-arb and arb players is incredibly hard to do if you're trying to compete for the playoffs and World Series.
  25. chpettit19
    What would that extra 33 million have gotten you? What if Lewis was at SS and Miranda was at 3B, what would you have spent the money on this offseason? And who would've been playing SS for the first 2 months of the season while Lewis was hurt?
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