chpettit19

The Monforts aren't exactly the same in that they don't as frequently say "I need Pujols" or "I need Hamilton" and force their front office to get them at any cost, and the country club, internal hiring is definitely accurate. But they also regularly force their front office to hold assets at the deadline or go for it when they should be selling because they want to win. Wanting to win is all well and good, but owners who can't be realistic about their team's talent and force their front office to treat their team like they're better than they are is just as bad as forcing them to overspend on Anthony Rendon. Because it leads to overspending on Kris Bryant. Dick Monfort earlier this year even stated that he hates to lose and it's lead to poor decisions (I forget the exact quote). They have made some progress and actually started investing in analytics recently, though. A decade after everyone else, but at least they're working on it! Still refuse to hire outside people, but baby steps, I guess. And they spend. But they're a good example of bad owners holding teams back. They're a poorly run organization because they're bad owners who don't know they're bad owners.

People think the Buxton deal is bad? They should check out the Bryant deal and how that's going for Colorado. Has been paid $78 million on a $182 million deal. Has played 159 games in 3 seasons. Oh, and he's been mostly terrible when playing. Only 4 more years to go! Yikes. Them and the Angels are the best examples of owners who need to hire baseball people and let them do the baseball things while just providing them the money to do it. They support their clubs very well financially, but they get too involved and force moves that tank their teams.

Twins misjudged what Rooker could be. No arguing against that. It happens, though. To every team. Anyone know how the Astros got Yordan Alvarez? The Dodgers traded him to them. For Josh Fields. Now Fields was very good in 2.5 years for the Dodgers. But do you think they'd rather have 117.1 innings of Fields out of their pen or a 166 OPS+ in 2668 (and counting) PAs from Alvarez? Every team misses. And they all miss big at some point. The Brent Rooker situation always brings me back to the 1 year (or even 1/2 year) mediocre vet deals. @Riverbrian has already been crushing it on here explaining why they drive me so crazy. And why I'm all over these boards this offseason pushing Emmanuel Rodriguez being the opening day left fielder (Larnach at DH) over bringing in a Margot 2.0 in 2025. Stop blocking higher ceiling, top picks who are destroying the minor leagues with 1-year vets who's ceiling is league average! Please. What I will say, though, is that we don't know what the Padres were willing to take back. Maybe the Twins offered Larnach or Kirilloff or Cave or whoever else and the Padres said no. I don't like saying a team "gave up" (or anything like that) on a player they traded. Now they definitely misjudged him because they wouldn't have done that deal if they knew what he'd become. But there's a very real chance they had him grouped with Larnach, Kirilloff, etc. and the Padres picked him. Now maybe that isn't the case and the Twins just saw him as being the oldest guy and not ready yet and the computer said guys his age who haven't made it never make it, but there's 2 sides to every trade. The other team doesn't just have to take whatever the Twins say they have to take. They get a say in who they want back.

I hope he does. Wallner didn't 2 years ago (this year was his own fault for being really, really bad to start) when he was tearing St Paul apart, had already debuted the year before, and was too old for them to really care much about service time. The extra year of control is a risk now. Pittsburgh isn't getting their extra year on Skenes after starting him in AAA for the first month. Now he's certainly not Skenes (no idea what the Pirates were thinking on that one), but he's the style of prospect that has the chance to win the RoY award with 450 PAs if he does what we hope. Rodriguez is going to be one of the top 5 names before the season when it comes to Rookie of the Year, probably. Because people will expect the Twins to see him as ready or near ready. And he's a power/speed combo who'll be expected to put up the flashy counting stats of homeruns and steals that will draw attention. There aren't a ton of huge prospects in his way to winning the award. I'd guess him, Jobe, Mayo, Jung, and Dominguez are top 5 right now. I may have forgotten somebody, but he'll be up there with the top guys. Not saying you're wrong about that strategy, but it's a risk and they should at least think about it.

I'd take Laureano over anyone on this list, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't get a pretty similar deal to Hays. He was the better player last year, at least after he got to Atlanta. I think Atlanta would love to have him back if they could get him for 3 or 4 mil instead of 6. I understand I'm in the minority when it comes to starting Rodriguez in the majors. But I don't see any way the Twins can afford a difference maker financially or through trade. Their potential ceiling raiser is Rodriguez (and hopefully Keaschall mid-season but hitting 2 would be crazy for the Twins). I don't think spending April in AAA makes a significant difference in what his May through September would look like in the majors. But bringing in another Margot type would, for the worse. Not necessarily in his performance, but in his PAs. Because the Twins won't cut Margot 2.0. They'll let him OPS .626 all season while playing awful defense. So Emma will get 200 PAs instead of 600. And if he's the next Wallner and can OPS .850ish you're losing 400 PAs of 200+ pts of OPS to get him 100 PAs in AAA. Give me the best baseball players. I think Emma is likely a better baseball player than anyone else they can realistically bring in. Even if he struggles for a month or 2. So give me him.

Keaschall isn't going to start the 2025 season in MLB, but he can be the extra bat you mentioned, unless you think they need another bat OFer on the opening day roster in which case we just simply disagree on that since they'll have Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Rodriguez, Castro, and Martin in my scenario with Keirsey and Helman at AAA. Keaschall can start in AA and still be part of the MLB solution in 2025 as the 9th OFer. 10th if you're willing to play Eeles in LF. Austin Martin had a better OPS+ than either Carlson or De La Cruz in 2024. Only Carlson from this list can play CF so I'm not sure why that criterion automatically eliminates Eeles. And since the only guy from this article who doesn't suck can't play CF I really don't get why the criteria would eliminate Eeles. Not sure where I've said they should depend on AA talent anywhere. Who are the Twins going to sign for 3-5 million after clearing money by trading away current MLB talent that are going to be significantly better than the in-house guys? Nobody on this list meets the level of "significantly better." Who are they going to bring in for no real money that is significantly better? And if it's somebody who's going to actually cost real money or real trade value how are they getting the money or who are they trading?

All the more reason not to plug one of these guys in for $5 mil. Plug Rodriguez in to LF, put Larnach in the DH spot and Keaschall is your other OF bat for 2025. Or Castro is. Or Martin is. Or Eeles is. Or Helman is. Or Jenkins is. Or any random guy of the same talent level of these 3 that you can pick up at the trade deadline for a PTBNL or cash is. Or any random waiver pickup is. The Twins have no money. If they maneuver things around to bring in somebody of this caliber what is the point? How much better is Dylan Carlson than Dashawn Keirsey? Carlson and his -1.2 bWAR and 61 OPS+ really the answer? The 47 OPS+ he had with StL for the first half of the year (59 games) really something we're convinced Keirsey can't do for league minimum so we need to spend millions on Carlson? De La Cruz is an awful defender. Absolutely terrible. And he's had back to back below average years with the bat after having been a league average bat in his first full year. He's Manuel Margot without the extreme splits so you don't even get the way above average bat against lefties. Austin Hays is interesting. If you're going to sign one of these guys he's the one you sign. He's the only one even worth discussing. You can probably expect league average production with the bat out of him. He's not a very good defender but has a big arm. He's probably Kepler's bat but not his glove. He'll at least be a positive player instead of a negative like those other 2, though. I just don't get why people want more Margot, Farmer, Gallo, Luplow, Garlick types, though. What is the point? These guys get the Twins no closer to playoff success than they are today. None. Not even a little. How sturdy do people want this floor? They've built the floor. It's sturdy enough. Can we start working on raising the ceiling?

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside. Stop shooting for average and being shocked that the team maxes out at 84 wins and first round playoff exits. Stop seeking out players who need to be put in ideal situations to succeed and being shocked when those ideal situations aren't easily found on a regular basis over 162 games and are really hard to manufacture in the playoffs. Yes, Correa is expensive and most prospects (even the top ones) fail, but here's a news flash: you need Correa and top prospects to win. Emma may fall flat on his face. Just like Carlson did. Carlson is who he is. Why in the world would you sign a failed prospect who's best hope is that he's a solid defender and bad bat instead of just using your internal solid defender who still has the chance of being better than a bad bat? Even if Emma is just an average bat you've already improved upon the Carlson signing because he's every bit the defender Carlson is. For cheaper. Shoot, Keirsey can defend and be a bad bat for cheaper.

Pittsburgh, KC, San Fran, and Houston feel like places he could end up in. I don't think he's going to get a big deal so I think his options are going to be pretty open for a lot of playoff hopeful teams looking for a 2 win veteran who plays good defense and isn't embarrassing in the batter's box. There's 3 teams in the Central itself that could probably use his services for 2025. His willingness to move off right field may determine a lot of what his options are. Much like San Diego wouldn't move Tatis, Houston isn't moving Tucker. How open is Kepler to playing some CF or making a full-time switch to LF? Rumors here were that he wasn't willing to play any CF really. Is that true of everywhere he'd sign? Max will have options, but I'll be pretty surprised if he signs for more than 1 year at any kind of real money. I expect a contender to give him a 1-year deal to be a glove first, platoon corner outfielder and show he's healthy and has more gas in the tank.

Other teams do it. Michael Harris played 43 games at AA with 196 PAs before being called up at the end of May. It's all an experiment. Even at the major league level. He could stay in AAA til he's 30 and it'd be an experiment when he debuts. The Twins have been sitting on prospects until they're in their mid-20s forever. I don't get why people look at what they've done and think it's some fool proof way to get guys ready and are terrified to call them up too early. But this is why TD is fun. We can have differing opinions and have an educated back and forth. Enjoy your holiday and we'll find something new to discuss tomorrow!

Not what I said. I said they should hope they have the talent to do it. I actually specifically said they shouldn't force them to do it just to do it, but should hope they'd have the talent to be able to do it. I never claimed they should call anyone up just because they've been hyped, you're putting words in my mouth. I said I believe this specific prospect is best served by finishing his learning at the big league level. The Padres and Brewers weren't held back by having their young stars finish their development on the fly in April and May. Royce Lewis level performance is the exception, not the rule. Odds are that Emma will struggle early in his call-up even if they send him to AAA for half the season first. You prefer those struggles in April and May or August and September? He's had success relative to those flaws. He hit .298 in AA. That's more success than younger players that skipped AAA, as I've shown. He can put the bat on the ball. They all have things to learn and none are perfect when they debut. Trout had to go back down after his debut.

The Twins top 3 are not as good as any of the combinations of pitchers I listed. It's not about being better than those combinations, they are worse than them. So the comment I responded to about there being no top 3 better than the Twins when Ryan is healthy is wrong. Yelling at everyone on the thread doesn't change that. The Twins don't have the best top 3 in baseball. They aren't tied for the best top 3 in baseball. The Twins aren't in the discussion for the best top 3 in baseball. There are multiple teams with more than 3 starters who are better than any individual starter the Twins have. This is a ridiculous debate. As for all of us reading what you actually wrote, you actually wrote that when Ryan IS healthy nobody has a better top 3. Is is present tense, not past tense. So you didn't say that when Ryan went down nobody had a better top 3 you said today, right now, this very moment nobody has a better top 3. If what you meant was that WHEN Ryan went down the Twins had the best top 3 in baseball you should've said "when Ryan WAS healthy." But you didn't. So a bunch of us disagreed and some of us provided examples as to why you're wrong. So maybe next time you want to yell, you should actually read what you wrote. Because a whole bunch of time passed since Ryan was healthy and you have to count what Ober and Lopez's results were during that time. Are they all still top 2 dozen starters now?

I like the Twins pitching more than many. And I'd actually focus on the position player side this offseason if I were in charge. But this is a pretty outlandish claim. The Dodgers have Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Snell who are all better than anyone the Twins can throw. That's 4 guys better than anyone on the Twins staff. I'd easily take Strider, Sale, and Schwellenbach over Lopez, Ryan, and Ober. Phillies can run out Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, and Suarez. The Mariners run out Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller, and Woo who are probably all better than anyone the Twins have. I may even take Skenes, Jones, and whoever the Pirates put at #3 over the Twins guys. The Twins have a very nice top 3. But to suggest they're the best top 3 in baseball is pretty wildly off base.

Or sub in this Blake Snell fella they just signed.

A 2025 debut puts him on a superstar trajectory. I'm with @stringer bell and hope to see him make relatively quick work of Wichita and be in St Paul in May. Absolute best-case scenario is the Michael Harris II route and he's in the majors in May, but the Corbin Carroll path of a September call-up followed by rookie of the year in 2026 wouldn't be too bad at all. Walker appears to be an A+ kid and that's a great starting point. I'm excited to see him in big league camp and get our first glimpses into what the future may hold. There are kids who fly through systems and reach the majors crazy quick all over the league. Why can't the Twins have one?

The union would file a grievance against that. I don't know how successful it'd be, but the union would throw an absolute fit if he doesn't debut in 2025 while being great in AAA. Especially since it's a level he reached, albeit briefly, the year before.

I didn't say he couldn't gain any value in AAA. But the 20 year olds I mentioned for the other teams could've gained value from 2-5 months in AAA, too. If he gets hurt again in the first 2-5 months this year is the argument next year that the 23 year old in his last option year can still gain value from 2-5 months in AAA so he should start there in 2026 because he only had 200 ABs in '25? I've openly stated he'd struggle in the first couple months. I've said he'd OPS in the .600s. I just think the lessons he needs to learn are best learned against big league pitching. He would play left field while Larnach DHs and he'd play CF while Buxton DHs and gets his rest days. That's the easy part. He displaces both Larnach and Wallner in the field easily and they don't have a set DH. Emma-Buxton-Wallner-Lewis-Correa-Castro-Whoever at C-Larnach. You can easily get him everyday ABs in the majors. Easily. But I'm not a big Lee believer so I understand that people are going to have different opinions here. Or maybe Castro is traded to save money and then it's Lee at 2B. But Martin, Keirsey, Helman, and Julien aren't taking ABs from Emma. He'll get AB's and repetition and guidance in the majors. Those are the off-speed pitches he needs to learn to hit. Him taking off-speed stuff in AAA isn't helping him learn to hit off-speed stuff in the majors. I don't think it's crazy to send him to AAA. It's what they're very likely going to do. It's just not what I'd do. And it's not what every team would do. It's what some teams would do. 22 isn't that young. I don't get the logic behind every prospect having to get hundreds of ABs at every level. And neither do plenty of MLB teams because they skip guys over AAA completely or have them only play a handful of games there all the time. Elite players don't need to do it. If you want Emma or Jenkins or Keaschall or any of these guys to be superstars you better cross your fingers they have enough talent to essentially jump AAA, too. Especially at age 22. They shouldn't force any of these guys to do it just to do it, but we better hope they have the talent to do it. I think Emma has the talent. My question with him is his ability to stay on the field.

The swing is definitely Mauer-like. And he uses that left center gap well already. He's shown a better ability to turn on the ball to this point, though. I don't know if he'll win batting titles, but when I watch him he certainly reminds me of Joe when he's up there.

Jackson Merrill OPS'd .782 in basically 50 more AA PAs in 2023 before debuting in the majors without ever playing a game at AAA and playing a position he never played in an official professional game. Jackson Chourio OPS'd .780 in many more AA PAs and played 6 games in AAA before debuting in the bigs. He had been playing the outfield already, though, so he did have that going for him over Merrill. Emmanuel Rodriguez OPS'd 1.100 in AA. His AAA OPS (in a, frankly, useless sample size) that people are worried about was 35ish points below what their AA OPSes were and they either completely skipped AAA or effectively skipped AAA like Emma would be. Merrill and Chourio weren't finished products. That's the point. They were close and then were given the chance to learn at the major league level while struggling for the first 2 months. They aren't all the same guy. Merrill had never played CF professionally until spring training last year. He debuted as a 20 year old having completely skipped AAA at a position he'd never played in a real professional game after having OPS'd 300+ points worse than Emma at AA. I'm not sure I can buy that Rodriguez has significantly more deficiencies than Jackson Merrill had on opening day 2024. Chourio was a top-10 prospect, Merrill at top-20, and Rodriguez a top-50. They're not the same, but he's in their league from a pedigree standpoint. Chourio was a top internation free agent who signed for 1.9 mil. Merill was a first round pick (27th overall). Rodriguez was a top international free agent who signed for 2.5 mil. I think his pedigree is pretty close to their range. I don't think it's the plan either. My concern is what he has to do to blow them away. How realistic are their expectations and what would it take to put him on the opening day roster? And then how quick is the trigger to send him down when he struggles? Does he get 2 months of 600 something OPS to figure it out or is he sent packing after 3 weeks? And my concerns fall down the line to the kid we're going to discuss tomorrow, too.

Or is he Matt Wallner? Wallner- AA- a24, 342 PAs, .299/.436/.597/1.033, 21 HRs, 107 SOs, 62 BBs Rodriguez- AA- a21, 167 PAs, .298/.479/.621/1.100, 8 HRs, 46 SOs, 42 BBs Julien- AA- a23, 508 PSa, .300/.441/.490/.931. 17 HRs, 125 SOs, 98 BBs Wallner isn't exactly a contact rate master (38.4% whiff rate is awful) while being a patient hitter (not at the level of Julien or Rodriguez, though). There's no margin for error with him either, but he's really good at making the most of his contact when he does make it. Emma seems to be built in the same mold. Lot's of boom or bust for him that likely comes down to contact quality. His slugging (in a smaller sample) beat even Wallner's in AA at a much younger age while K'ing at a lower rate. It will be very interesting to get batted ball data on him once he gets to the majors and see how he compares to Wallner and the other big guys in the league.

He won't get it right. He's going to fail. He's going to need to adjust and figure things it out. No matter how long you keep him in the minors. It's why I want him up from the start (assuming they think he's close). What does he have to learn in AAA? To recognize breaking stuff? He can already do that. To recognize strikes vs balls? He can already do that. To field his position? He can already do that. None of that is to say he's going to come up and be perfect or great or even very good. Jackson Chourio had a .608 OPS in April last year. Jackson Merrill's was .696. Chourio followed that up with a .542 in May and Merrill had a .656. In June they went .897 and .996. Merrill had a dip in July back to .690, but otherwise neither dropped below .800 again the rest of the season. Finished with overall OPS's of .791 (Chourio) and .826 which were good for OPS+ of 117 and 127. Chourio has 24 career AAA PAs while Jackson Merrill has 0. Chourio does have 585 AA PAs, but Merrill has 211. That's not too far off from Emma's 30 AAA PAs and 167 AA PAs. Emma has 1016 PAs in the Twins system. Chourio had 1211 in the minors and Merrill had 881. They're both younger than him. He's going to fail when he gets to the majors. And they should let him. If they think he can be great. If he's just another dude it's different. But if you think he's a cornerstone get him to the majors once he's out of things to learn in the minors and let him take his lumps in the bigs. Let him struggle at the bottom of the order. Maybe they think he has more to learn. I don't know. But if he's ready, or close to it, let him run in the bigs. Even when he falls down. Which he will. Royce did. They all do. Let him OPS .600 for a couple months if you think he can OPS .850+ from then on out. But I'm not a big Lee guy, and wasn't calling for him to start on the opening day roster last year. Didn't think he was ready. He's never performed like Emma has. He's been carried by his draft stock far more than his performance. So I'm not exactly the poster you were referring to here.

If they think he's close I'd like to see him on the opening day roster and let him do his learning on the job. Even when he struggles. Assuming those struggles aren't early-2024 Wallner level struggles. If you don't think he'll be completely overwhelmed, give him the Jackson Chourio/Merrill treatment. Let him struggle early. Give him 2 months of hitting at the bottom of the order and dialing in his approach with the hope that things start to click by June. Then by the second half of the season you have your middle of the order star blossoming and come playoff time you may have your "face of the franchise" type piece you're hoping for. The Twins are more than willing to let their over-the-hill veterans struggle for months on end with the hope that they can reach their ceiling of "mediocre at best" by the time August or September rolls around. I'd like to see them do it with their high ceiling youngsters instead. Emma is a good place to start. I don't think there's much for him to learn at AAA. The pitchers can challenge him better than the guys at A+ and AA, but not like the major leaguers. For him to truly lock in his approach and balance out the patience and aggression he's going to need he's going to have to do it against major league pitching. Let him start the process now. Recognizing off-speed isn't Julien's problem, hitting it is. Julien's approach is broken because he can't hit off-speed stuff so he doesn't swing at it. If Emma also can't hit off-speed stuff then his approach doesn't matter. If Emma can hit major league breaking stuff his approach will work itself out. His contact rate is what the question is. Not the approach. Can he make enough contact when he swings? If he does the rest will work itself out.

Teams aren't preparing for Emma any more than they prepared for Julien. The major league teams have the same amount of data on him as they had on Julien. The data they have is camera/computer generated. Julien wasn't "ignored." Emma isn't getting any extra attention. Kris Bryant was a pretty well known prospect and did just fine as a rookie. Jackson Merrill wasn't "ignored" and did quite well last year. Quite a few people had heard of Corbin Carroll before he won rookie of the year in 2023 and then he struggled in 2024. The league won't "be ready for" Emma any more than they're ready for any other rookie, including Julien. That isn't how it works. They don't have special info on him. They've paid the same amount of attention to him as everyone else. The umps won't treat him any differently than any other rookie. Nobody in the majors cares about Emma. He's just another kid trying to make a career for himself. They see dozens of others just like him every season.

Only IF help the Twins may need is somebody who can play SS. Not play SS "in a pinch" but flat out play SS. Right now it's Correa, Lee, and Castro. Castro will be gone after this year (if not before) and Lee is far from established despite our hopes he becomes a good player. Bringing in a guy who isn't a legitimate Correa backup doesn't make sense to me. Any utility IFer they bring in needs to be a legit SS.

He'd be #2 on my list. I think we see him early(ish) in the year. I think he's the player most people are expecting/hoping Lee can be. I didn't see him a ton this season so the glove is still the question for me. He made the plays I'd expect him to make the couple games I watched of him at 2B, and he looked way more natural than Julien there. I didn't see him at all in the OF, but if he can play that then put him there. I'd be ok with 1B, but all this talk of sliding our better athletes to 1B isn't something I like. At least not until we get more athletes. I think OF and/or 2B would be the best if he can field one of those spots. I don't trust Buxton to stay healthy (who does?) so that's an open spot in my mind, and I prefer Larnach at DH if we can put a better fielder in LF. And, as I said above, I think Keaschall is the star people are expecting Lee to be while Lee is more of "just" a regular so if Lewis is at 3B I'll take Luke at 2B and Lee as the utility guy who ends up playing a ton for Correa and Lewis (all 3 of those guys have real injury concerns at this point with Correa actually being my lowest concern behind Lewis' legs and Lee's back). I think the bat is just about ready. Get him into spring training to knock the rust off. Start him in St Paul. And get him to Minneapolis at the first opportunity if he's showing he's ready. Shoot, if he tears it up in spring hand him and opening day job and take a run at an extra draft pick for a rookie of the year award (I know he's on at least 1 of the top-100 lists so I guess it'd depend if he's on another for the draft pick).