chpettit19

Wish they would've given him a chance to be a spark plug during their September collapse. No reason I can see that he shouldn't be a ST invite and get a shot next year when someone inevitably gets hurt or struggles.

I'm with you on the first part. Give him an opening day job and let him learn how to be a major leaguer. If they move him backwards to AA to start the year and he doesn't debut until the end of 2025 it's time to write him off as a star. While I disagree with the extremes of your age based stances, the speed with which guys blow through the minors matters. He's already reached the upper minors. Injuries have slowed him, but there's nothing left there. He'll have his struggles, like the guys you mentioned did, but if he's the guy we all hope he is he'll adjust and adapt and he'll have a chance to be a Merrill or Chourio style star when it comes to playoff time. But I think you have Carroll separated when you shouldn't, other than him getting his September call up. He went from AA to AAA as a 21 year old and debuted at the end of that year. He'd spent the previous year in A+ ball for 7 games, but basically missed the year injured. Emma basically went through that stretch this year. He just missed the September call up Corbin got to get his feet wet because he missed so much of this year with an injury. The Corbin Carroll path really is the one he has been on outside of missing the September call up due to missing so much time and still being hurt at the end of the year.

The people paid to do this for a living are completely wrong quite often so I'm pretty sure us internet folk are supposed to be wrong pretty frequently. But I'd say you're about 19.5% too high on Severino. For some context, Yunior had a wRC+ of 101 in his 2nd go round in AAA this year at the age of 24. Kirilloff's AAA quad slash is .362/.452/.667/1.119 compared to Severino's .249/.337/.450/.787. Obviously some context that needs to be put into that comparison as Kirilloff had some rehab assignments in there, but I'll be surprised if Severino survives the offseason on the 40-man. He's a no glove corner player who hasn't hit in AAA and is now in his mid-20s. Not exactly a hard player to find in the minors. With the new look at the 40-man, I think Kirilloff's tender/chances of making through the winter on the 40-man come down to how many "random" relievers the Twins care about carrying all winter. Those are the easiest guys to cut as there's always a cookie cutter replacement being waived the next day. I wouldn't bet one way or the other on Kirilloff. I have no strong feeling on what way they'll go.

Well that changes things. Severino and Kirilloff join a few others on the chopping block then.

You guys would remove him before you removed Yunior Severino? I don't see any 40-man issues at all. As far as I'm concerned Marco Raya is the only "must add" for the Rule 5. Kala'i Rosario is a reasonable enough add, too, I guess. So let's call it 2 adds. Fangraphs says the Twins currently have 41 guys on the 40 man. They're going to "lose" DeSclafani, Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler, and Margot. I think we all agree they're going to be pretty limited on funds to spend so it's going to be mostly trades and waiver claims or low priced adds. I agree with Mike that there's really no 40-man issues at all. 1 extra guy with 6 removals gets them to 5 open spots. They don't have 5 Rule 5 adds and I put Severino miles ahead of Kirilloff for removing from the 40-man. Do we really think there's 3-5ish waiver claim or low priced free agents we'd rather have than Kirilloff for 1.8 mil? Edit: Vanimal corrected me and my 40-man numbers so scratch everything I just said other than I'll take Kirilloff over Severino.

The 21 year old with the 2.31 ERA had a lot of potential? Way to go out on a limb on that one. You applauded Cleveland for trading their Cy Young award winner for a reliever and were disappointed the Twins didn't have a Cy Young winner to trade? I think we're all in the same boat there.

I think there is very real talent with Kirilloff. But the injuries are piling up left and right. For me, it's not about whether or not he's worth 1.8 in a vacuum, but very much about how he fits into the roster as a whole. Wallner, Miranda, and Larnach have corner/DH spots over him right now because I trust them, to varying degrees, to be healthy more than I trust him to be. But am I trusting Yunior Severino to run with the 1B/DH job for league minimum more than I'm trusting Kirilloff for 1.8? No. Am I trusting Julien more than Kirilloff? I trust him to stay healthy more, but I don't trust his talent more. Do I trust 39 year old Carlos Santana more? I trust his glove more, but not his bat talent. But I trust him to stay healthy more. But do I want to pay him an extra 3 or 4 million more? Who are my other options? Is there another hole I can fill on the roster for that 1.8 or am I just saving the Pohlads (or a new owner) 1.8 mil? Kirilloff is a complicated question because the roster is a complicated roster because you can't trust the 3 most important position players on the roster to stay healthy so how much can you invest in someone like Kirilloff who may be your 4th most talented hitter, but also is your 4th extreme injury risk? On a different roster it'd be an easier decision. On this roster I don't know what I'd do. I lean towards keeping him because I believe in the talent, but don't blame anyone who'd let him walk.

A Michael Harris II season for Jenkins is the best hope. And I don't think it's completely unrealistic, even if it's not the most likely option. For those who don't follow the league that closely, Harris is the center fielder for the Braves. In 2022 he debuted on May 28th at the age of 21. After 43 games in AA. Total. For his life. Ever. He'd played 101 games in A+ ball the season before. He was a top 40-60 global prospect before that season so wasn't a nobody by any means, but wasn't a top-5 guy like Walker. Yes, Walker is a year younger than that, but Harris also missed his age 19 season in 2020 due to the pandemic. Am I predicting this? Absolutely not. Do I expect it? Also, absolutely not. But it's not completely unrealistic. But a July call-up and a real impact on the season? I do think that's entirely possible and relatively realistic. Worst case, for me, is a September call-up and a rookie of the year award in 2026. If Emma isn't up by the end of May things are either going very well for the presumed (as in still on the roster) Larnach-Buxton-Wallner outfield or very poorly for Emma in AAA. I know he's young, and I'm by no means saying his career is over or he's a bust if he isn't up by then, but that's what superstars do. He should've/would've been up already if he could stay healthy. And that may be the "very poorly" thing in AAA for him (again). If he's going to be a super star, poor man's Soto for the Twins he needs to light Fort Myers up and tear St Paul apart to start the year and be up before June. We need to be all over these boards complaining that they're wasting him in AAA for most of May. He shouldn't be waiting for an injury, but should be doing the proverbial "forcing his way onto the roster" thing. It's time. He's young, but it's time. I'd actually argue he should be making a real argument for an opening day roster spot and pushing Larnach to the DH spot and being the CFer when Buxton needs a day. Keaschall may have to be a little patient, but he should have a chance this year as a right handed bat that can play a little infield and a little outfield. I despise the idea of calling him up to make him a short-side platoon bat. His lack of 40-man spot is going to hurt him early, too. They moved him pretty quick his first full year, though, so hopefully that's a sign they're willing to displace guys who aren't performing and give him a chance. Their lack of spending power this offseason is likely going to work in his favor as well as there will be fewer veterans on the big club who they steadfastly refuse to move on from and instead he'll be fighting against other guys with options and it'll come down to performance over money and roster rules.

Pen arms still have "routines." Their "routines" just don't have to be throwing the same inning/situation every time. The "routine" players talk about is in their preparation for playing. "I need to do A, B, and C to get ready to perform at my best every game" is routine, not "I need to throw in a save or hold situation every time." Don't claim we're using strawman arguments and then suggest we're suggesting the Twins use Jax and Duran in the 5th and 6th. Nobody has suggested such a thing. We clearly understand leverage and are arguing for it as a tool to be used when determining when a pitcher is used over simply the inning. Because, as you well know, the inning itself does not solely determine the leverage. The section of the lineup that's coming up in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning matters. Unless you think every hitter is equally hard to get out based on the inning. Yes, the Guardians did have a dedicated closer and setup guy. So did the Twins. I gave a whole breakdown at the top. They used their big 2 before the 8th in 11.5% of their innings compared to 12.9% of the Twins big 2 innings. But when push came to shove and the Guardians were fighting for their season Hunter Gaddis (still a human in the playoffs I assume) had nearly half his appearances come in the 6th and 7th. Because the leverage and situation mattered more.

I don't need quotes. Go watch a playoff game. Best pen in baseball had their "setup guy" throwing in the 6th when it mattered. Hunter Gaddis pitched in 8 games in the postseason. 3 of them saw him throw in the 6th and/or 7th. This isn't a new phenomenon. Detroit used their best relievers all over the place in the playoffs. And those are "well run" teams with a World Series winning manager and the best pen in baseball that many around here wish Rocco would do things more like. Routine doesn't have to mean inning. Routine doesn't have to mean batting order spot. It does for some, and it's up to coaches and managers to know their players well enough to know those things (it sure appears to mean closing for Duran). Andrew Miller's routine didn't need to be an inning. Jax's hasn't. Thielbar (when he was good) didn't. Routine and role don't automatically mean inning. It's how you prepare to pitch. It's how you prepare for the game. Reliever roles change as we gain more information. Just like everything else. Quotes in the press from pitchers change as roles change. Joe Nathan hasn't thrown a major league pitch in 8 years, and hasn't thrown more than 6.1 innings in the majors in a decade. He was a stud, but quotes from him on pen management are not relevant anymore. The Twins just need as many good arms as possible so who they throw when doesn't make such a difference. Take it out of Rocco's hands. Give him as little chance of screwing things up as possible. If all he has is good options it's hard to screw up routines and roles.

That's just 1 inning. Relievers are now used from the 6th through the 9th. What about the other 3 innings people want guys locked into? The guys in the bullpen know what's coming next without knowing whether they're throwing in the 6th or the 8th. They know they're throwing against hitters X, Y, and Z. Which allows them to study those hitters, know exactly how they're going to attack those hitters, and be as prepared as possible for those specific hitters instead of having to be prepared to face any of hitters 1 through 9. The "new" roles of pen guys actually takes more stress off the lower guys in your pen because you're not just putting them out there to face the 3-4-5 hitters in a 1 run game in the 7th because they're the 7th inning guy. You're going to a higher leverage guy there because you're playing matchups instead of the inning. The human and stress factor is actually taken more into account in today's strategy than the strategy so many fans want to go back to.

Clase only closed, that's fair. And Duran should probably only close as well. But Cade Smith was an absolute monster this year and he threw 23.1 innings in the 6th this year, 29 in the 7th and 14.2 in the 8th. With 1.2 in the 9th, 1.2 in the 4th, and 5 in the 5th. Hunter Gaddis was phenomenal while throwing in both the 7th and 8th inning (mostly the 8th, though). Tim Herrin was great while throwing 22.2 innings in the 6th, 20.2 in the 7th, and 13.2 in the 8th (also through in the 3rd, 4th 5th, 9th, and 10th). Eli Morgan was yet another Cleveland reliever with a sub-1.00 WHIP who threw 8.1 innings in the 5th, 8.2 in the 6th, 9 in the 7th, 4.1 in the 8th, 5 in the 9th, 2 in extras, 1.1 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd, and 1.1 in the 4th. Clase and Gaddis threw a combined 149 innings this year. 17.2 came before the 8th inning (all by Gaddis). Clase had 2 in the 8th and 6.1 in the 10th. Duran and Jax had a combined 125.1 innings this year. 16.2 came before the 8th inning (all but 1 by Jax). So 11.5% of the Cleveland duo's innings vs 12.9% of the Minnesota duo's. Is that really that drastic of a difference? If you take out Duran's one 7th inning appearance it's 11.5 vs 12.1%. I mean it's a rounding error. I would use Duran more like Clase as he seems to be more dependent than I'd like on the emotion and adrenaline of the save situation for his performance, but Rocco used his 2 big guns before the 8th just as much as Cleveland used theirs. The pen has clearly determined roles. They just aren't clearly defined innings roles. They're clearly defined sections of the batting order roles. And they're the same roles virtually every team in major league baseball uses. And for good reason. As for capable lefties...give me Tanner Scott (never going to happen), Brooks Raley on a minor league deal or just find the best relievers you can. I don't care so much about handedness. Just get me guys who can get hitters out. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Varland, etc. are as good as we hope they can be it doesn't matter that none of them are left handed. Just get guys out.

The Twins seem to be quite good at targeting college arms they can add velocity to in the draft. I'd like to see them apply the same strategy to pro starters when it comes to bullpen arms. It's what they've done internally for their best relievers and it's what I'd like to see them do with outside pitchers they bring in. Their strategy to this point of "he has 1 dominant pitch so we'll bring him in and have him throw the crap out of it" hasn't been successful most of the time. Let's bring in failed starters with the same strategy they use on college arms in the draft. I'm not smart enough to know what they look for in mechanics to believe they can add velo to those arms, but I have to believe they can look for certain things in pro arms as well. Find guys who you can pull a Jax or Sands with and just keep converting starters to relievers. With both external and internal starters. If you have too many starters in MLB and AAA turn some of those AAA starters into multi-inning relievers who you can turn back into starters down the road instead of bringing in the Jay Jackson's of the world. Let them learn the ropes in short stints. I'm hoping they're getting to this point with their development and we can stop seeing all the washed up, mid-30s vets with no ceiling signings and start seeing some young athletes come up and throw filth.

I know some people aren't going to like this comment, but the moment Martin couldn't learn to pull the ball with authority his major league career was in real trouble. It's what the Blue Jays hoped he could do when they drafted him and it's what the Twins hoped he could do when they traded for him. There was real hope in him being a more athletic Bo Bichette (offensively) if he could do it. He couldn't. Now he's a AAAA player. This idea that the Twins bounced him around to a bunch of positions he'd never played before and that ruining him is just people having no idea who Austin Martin is, or what his career has been. Above average defensive players don't play 22 games at 1B (injury related, to be fair), 13 at 2B, 64 at 3B, 25 in CF, 15 in LF, and 2 at SS in college. Austin Martin was a utility player in college. He just happened to be able to absolutely rake against college pitching so it didn't matter. Then Toronto played him 46 games in CF and 43 at SS after drafting him before MN started playing him at SS almost exclusively. MN actually gave him the most consistent playing time at 1 position, and it was a massive mistake that held him back. They stuck him at SS most of his first full year with the club and that was the mistake. They should've had him bouncing between 2B, LF, and CF back then instead of having him locked in at SS for so much of his playing time. Austin Martin hasn't been good enough defensively since college (and he likely never will be) and once it became clear he'd never have any sort of power he likely wasn't going to be good enough offensively. I was stoked when they got him in the Berrios trade. I thought he'd learn to pull the ball with authority early in counts and be able to use his natural right field approach late in counts to be a .280+ hitter with 15 HR power. It's not going to happen. And, despite some people's beliefs, it's really, really hard to take walks in MLB when you're not a power threat in any way, shape, or form. And if you can't impact the ball well you have to hit it at nearly a perfect launch angle every time to be effective (see Arraez, Luis). And that's really hard to do. How encouraged should they be? Not very. And that makes me very sad. I was very excited for him. But the odds are not in his favor.

Very limited sample size here, but the Twins weren't listed among the teams with a bad reputation amongst players in this players poll. Where are your assurances coming from that "no one thinks of the twins as a good organization?" Josh Donaldson signed here. Carlos Correa signed here (twice). Arraez had great things to say this summer when he was back here. Gray had wonderful things to say when he was back here. Cruz can't stop saying terrific stuff. Former players say a lot of good things about the Twins as an organization (except Shoemaker, he wasn't a fan). What are your statements based on? There are a lot of really good relief pitchers in baseball. Do you think they all want to be relievers instead of starters or do you think some of them have been told by their teams it isn't a good idea because their stuff wouldn't play well in the rotation so they're sticking in the pen? Do you think they've all demanded trades? There's a difference between having an adult conversation about why the organization may not feel Jax would succeed in the pen and them telling him "to stfu." They can entertain the idea without actually giving him a shot in spring. They can discuss it internally and with him. They can come to an educated decision that him, and you, may disagree with that isn't some crazy disrespectful act.

I was only referring to 2025 when talking about him throwing 150 innings. They'd never let him throw more than that next year. Beyond 2025 is a whole different discussion.

I think the Jax to the rotation question is pretty complicated. It's not just about him, it's about the entire pitching staff. The chances of him jumping to 150+ innings next year are basically 0. Lopez and Crochet (examples used here) threw 135.2 and 146 innings each. So let's split the difference and say Jax throws 140 innings. Let's say he has 1 IL stint and misses 3 starts. 140 innings over 30 starts is still less than 5 innings a start. So it's not just about Jax being a starter, but what the makeup of the entire staff is. Are they willing to put Paddack in the pen and give him 2 innings every time out? Would they give Varland 2 innings each time he throws? What about Sands going 2 innings some of his appearances? If they have multiple guys they're willing to deploy as 2 inning guys throughout the season this could work and I'd actually be on board with it. If not, you'd be looking at an even more complicated pitching situation than they already make it and that has disaster written all over it, if you ask me. And you can't just have Paddack, Varland, and Sands as the 2 innings guys, but also need to have guys behind them you're ready to turn to. Whether that be AAA starters getting their feet wet or Henriquez and Blewitt types or whatever. I actually kind of like this plan. I like the idea of the young starters getting their feet wet in short stints and learning what it takes to be a major leaguer then being relied upon more and more. To me the question is how many days off you need to give a guy who throws 30+ pitches over 2 innings. How often can guys do that? If it's twice a week and you can have 2 guys who do it I think you can build a really nice pitching staff even if your starters aren't going 6 every time. I think the Twins have a lot of talented arms. It's a situation they haven't been in in a long, long time. It's just a matter figuring out how they all fit together.

And also were in the media sector until Joe tanked that opportunity.

That's the problem many of us have with them. Whether they understood and ignored or simply didn't understand doesn't really matter to me. The end result is the same and they've put the team I cheer for in a tougher spot than they needed to. That's my understanding of the crux of this article. The point you waved off as Occam's razor. The signing of Carlos Correa to a large contract when they were going to slash payroll. Them not being able to foresee what many, many people foresaw is a problem. Not being able to see what MLB was openly talking about and running your franchise as if the problem wasn't about to arrive because your TV contract was going to expire is a really weird situation to defend. There's no derision. I'm not mocking anyone. But when people suggest them not being aware of something means that it's 20-20 hindsight (not a phrase you used, but another poster did) or not something people could've seen coming (the suggestion you have been making) I push back when it is something that many, many people openly talked about as being the obvious outcome.

Except in this very article and thread multiple people are telling you things that are true and your responses aren't to change your view it's to continue to stick to your disbelief of those things.

They had the information. MLB talked about the changing TV landscape during the CBA negotiations. DSG filed for bankruptcy before the Twins extended Lopez. It's not 20-20 hindsight just because you didn't know about things. They knew when their TV deal was expiring. Everybody who paid any sort of attention at all to such things knew they weren't going to get nearly as much in their next deal and that MLB wanted to create their own streaming network which the RSNs wouldn't like. RSNs were dying anyways. This isn't 20-20 hindsight. It's all things that us regular folk knew at the time and the people who's company had tens of millions of revenue depending on their TV contracts absolutely should've been making decisions based on.

MLB was talking about having to have their own broadcast capabilities during the lockout. To add to multiple other posts, MLB knew this was coming and was actively preparing for it years before DSG filed for bankruptcy. The DSG implosion was known at the time of the Correa signing. And happened before the Pablo extension (as another poster said). If reading these things is "unpleasant" for you it's likely because it goes against what you want to be true. The publicly known facts of the situation is that MLB was preparing for the demise of Diamond Sports, and RSNs in general, well before Carlos Correa ever wore a Twins jersey.

I'd say the Twins just have a middle-of-the-order-bat problem, but 1st and/or DH are places they could definitely use to fill that hole. The problem is they don't have any money to spend so it's really just about finding whatever offense they already have in house or making trades to try to improve the lineup. I hope they don't sell too much of the future, but there could be some savvy trades to be made. The Twins have plenty of guys who lack athleticism who they could hand 1B gloves tomorrow and tell them to get to work so I'd prefer their additions be at other positions if they're bringing guys in. Don't like the idea of moving Wallner there and taking away his best defensive asset in his arm. But Larnach could make sense. I'd prefer they just teach Lewis to throw a baseball instead of putting one of their best athletes at 1B, but if he can't figure out his throwing motion then he'd be an option. Miranda and Kirilloff are options, but all 3 of those guys (actually all 4 with Larnach included) have had health problems most, or all, of their careers. The Twins have a first base problem. But mostly they have a health and talent problem. Those are all connected, but the health problem is the biggest problem, and it can no longer be looked at or treated as a "bad luck" problem. You've built a roster of injury prone guys or you've built a training and rest and rehab program that leads to increased injuries. Either way it's hurting your performance. The Twins have some guys in house they can move to 1B. In fact, they have a lot of guys in house who's best position probably is 1B. The problem is they lack guys who can fill the positions they're currently in. Get healthy, talented players and 1B will figure itself out.

The Twins should explore trading everyone this offseason. Not in a "blow it up" kind of way, but in a "we're not good enough and we need to make changes" kind of way. Running it back minus the current free agents wouldn't be good enough. They don't have any money to sign legitimate veteran help. So either they go into next year happy to finish 3rd or 4th in the division around .500 again or they look to get creative in moving pieces around. Duran is a reasonable enough piece to look at moving if he can bring back help in another area and they think Paddack and Varland in the pen could cover for him no longer being there.

If Helman makes it through the winter on the 40-man he'll get his chance to take Farmer/Margot's spot. If he isn't successful early Keaschall is going to take his (and other's) job pretty quick (I hope). Will be interesting to see what they do with the 40-man and if they try to find ways to bring in more Farmer/Margot types are give guys from the system a chance. Can't call them "kids" because Helman and Keirsey aren't young anymore. Martin and Severino aren't particularly young either. But they're all cheap. If Helman is a large part of their 2025 plans, though, I'm not excited about their 2025 plans. No offense to Michael. He's far more talented than I've ever been. But he's not talented enough to be a large part of a contender's plan. Maybe he surprises me, and I like that he'd bring some athleticism to the squad, but the way this team likes to use everyone so much means he'd play more than he should. And I don't see that as a good recipe for wins.