chpettit19

Yeah, Story's contract year with his 102 OPS+ brought his numbers way down, but his 3 seasons before that were all 120 or above. Kim's best has been a 107. Teams could dream on Story getting back to a 120 OPS+. Nobody is dreaming on Kim touching 120. Correa put up multiple 130+ OPS+ seasons before his pillow contract. Swanson is the only guy you've mentioned that Kim is even slightly comparable to when it comes to peak offensive performance. We'll see where he lands, I already said it may be 20 instead of 15, but I don't think it's fair to put him in the same category as Story and Correa offensively. Not the same sort of talent his agents can be selling teams on at all. I'll be absolutely shocked if he gets a $25 mil pillow deal considering he's going to miss the first month of the season. 15-20 seems awfully reasonable based on all the information we have.

Lee for a catcher is intriguing. I'd do it. But I've been one of the lower people on Lee for a long time. I don't think Julien has much value at all on the market. Unless a team thinks they can rework his swing path. If he were 21 or 22 that'd be one thing, but he'll be 26 next season and teams don't typically give up much for 26 year olds who don't play defense and who's swings need to be overhauled. He's a talented kid, but when your swing is that steep it makes it really hard to hit breaking stuff. He learned that in front of our eyes last year. His approach isn't his problem like people say, it's his inability to hit breaking pitches because of his swing path. Teams aren't going to give up much for the chance to find out if they're the ones who can teach him to hit those pitches. I think there's deals the Twins could swing that'd trade future for present or present for future, but those aren't really things I'm that interested in. I think the pitching is good enough to win now. I don't think they're loaded with a ton of #1 arms, but I think their top 3 are good and they have enough young arms on the cusp to survive the inevitable pitching injuries. And I think the pen can be great. I didn't think it was last year when they were looking to run out 1-year-wonder vets like Jackson, but with Varland and Sands and other young flame throwers with legit high octane stuff I think they can produce a really good pen that's deeper than usual and can sustain through the year. But I don't know how they fix the position player side easily. I want nothing to do with the washed up 1 year rental vets. You know I'm all in on Emma opening day assuming he looks solid in spring. But you can't trade your mediocre players for good players. I don't see any positions with too many players, I see the opposite. I don't think the Twins have many guys with real value to make real improvements. If they had that we wouldn't be so worried about the talent level of the team.

While I agree the Twins aren't taking on 15 mil a year over multiple years right now, Larnach would move to DH if they brought in Suzuki. Pretty easy solution there. They need another bat for the DH spot. This wouldn't displace Larnach or Wallner from the lineup.

I thought about the Correa to 3B thing, too. If Kim's shoulder is back to what it was and he's 100% it's a conversation I'd have and it'd just be about setting up the best defensive infield alignment I can. If that's Lewis at 2B with Correa and Kim on the left side I'm good with that. Not locked into those positions, but I wouldn't approach Correa about a position change until I see Kim in spring training throwing. Yeah, Kim may be more in the 20 range than 15. I do think Story and Swanson were paid to be 115-120 OPS+/wRC+ bats instead of the 100-105 bat that Kim is likely expected to be, though. That's not what they've been, and they maybe shouldn't have been paid that way, but I think that's what Chicago and Boston were hoping for/expecting. I don't think they paid them to be league average bats. I think Boston was very much expecting Story to bounce back to a 120 or better bat once he got to Fenway and that's what they paid him for. Kim has always been a step below those other 2 in terms of peak performance with the bat. None of this really matters as the Twins aren't going to sign Kim. He's likely going to get a multi-year deal and the Twins aren't taking on that kind of financial commitment while they try to sell the team and are in this payroll crunch. The only way we see significant changes to the roster is if they swing a number of trades. It's more than likely going to be a very boring offseason and the Twins are going to be forced to trust their young guys and hope they can step up. Still fun to mess around with some ideas, though.

I thought Miranda looked improved at 3B last year compared to his rookie year. I don't expect him to ever be a great defender, but if he can be average at 1B I'll be happy. I hope the Twins have told him he's not going to see anymore time at 3B unless things have gone pretty bad. Lewis, Lee, Castro, hopefully Keaschall all ahead of him. Just give him a 1B glove and let him go to work to get as good as he can. Lewis, I think, just needs to figure out how to throw a baseball. I've never seen such a gifted athlete look so uncomfortable throwing a ball. I think his glove works fine at 3B if they can fix his throwing motion. But he's here for his bat. You're not going to field an entire team of guys good with both the glove and the bat. The Dodgers don't and they won the World Series. Same with the Rangers before them. If Lewis hits like we hope, I'll survive with his glove if I have 2 gold glove quality guys up the middle with Buxton behind them and Emma in left. That's a solid defensive team the pitchers would be pretty comfortable throwing in front of, in my opinion. Spotting me a 3 run lead helps me feel comfortable on the mound, too.

Your roster isn't realistic. Roki Sasaki isn't coming here. There's not a single rumor out there that the Twins have even talked to him. He isn't chasing pool money if he's chasing money, he's chasing endorsement money, and MN isn't where he's getting that. Laureano signed that deal with Atlanta on May 29th, 2024 after he hit .143/.265/.229/.494 for Cleveland for the first 31 games of the year. It was a minor league deal. That 740k isn't even a contract he could sign for 2025 because the minimum salary in Major League Baseball next year is $760,000. The only reason you want to sign him is because he hit .296/.327/.505/.832 for Atlanta after signing that 740k deal. He's going to get about the same amount as Hays for 2025. You're using 1 projection to say Profar is 3/39 and you overpaid at 15. The Athletic has him at 3/48 so you actually underpaid him according to them. I didn't say anything because the 15 is good enough for a rough estimate. But your 740k for Laureano is not an actual 2025 contract so your math is off by about $4 million. And, yes, there absolutely is a way the Pohlads will squash a 134-136 payroll if their limit is 130. They're not eating 4-6 million while they try to sell the team. The problem is your payroll, like I said in the beginning, is actually more like 140 because Ramon Laureano isn't signing for league minimum or a minor league deal in 2025. And they're definitely squashing a payroll 10 million over budget.

You don't have Laureano or Hays on that plan. So, you're basically at the 130 budget and you're suggesting adding between 3 (Either Laureano or Hays alone are going to cost at least 3 million) and 10 million (both together could cost up to 10) to the budget. Either way you're over the 130 budget in the plan you suggested on this thread. And on a side note, the Twins are not signing Sasaki. No chance. It would be very cool if they did, though.

Paddack and Vazquez salary dumped for whatever. Don't care what the return is, just need the money for Kim. Castro would return a legitimate prospect, I believe, and I'll turn the bench over to the youth. Since I'm the new GM/POBO I've now got a say in on field strategy so the over managing would stop or Rocco would find a new team to pinch hit constantly for. My team has a more set lineup and Willi wasn't going to be as valuable for us as Kim's glove and experience for the youth will be. Emma gets a spot on the opening day roster and doesn't need to fear losing that spot unless he's completely and utterly overwhelmed with no signs of finding himself. Elias Diaz can provide defense and no offense for significantly less money than Vazquez. He was released last August and the Padres signed him to a minor league deal 2 weeks later. Maybe I'm way off and that 3 mil estimate is too low, but I disagree that all glove no offense catchers can't be found for pretty darn cheap and 3 is half of the 6 he made last year. Keirsey, Helman, and Martin are just space holder names for those spots. If Julien or Lee step up and tear AAA apart in the first half you worry about finding a spot for them then. Yes, I realize that's the completely opposite stance from handing Emma an opening day job. But I only have the money to make 1 move and solidifying the defense around my pitching staff while giving me a shot at developing a young star was the path I chose with my 1 move. I think I can build a dominant bullpen with Canterino hopefully being able to hold up in a 1 inning role at some point and being able to use Sands, Varland, and Henriquez as 2 inning weapons to be able to support the 2 young rotation spots with the 3 veterans going 6+ in the majority of their starts. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M) 2B: Ha-Seong Kim ($15M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($.8M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($2.1M) 4th OF: Dashawn Keirsey ($.8M) Utility: Michael Helman ($.8M) Utility: Austin Martin ($.8M) Backup C: Elias Diaz ($3M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($.8M) SP5: David Festa ($.8M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.6M) RP: Brock Stewart ($.8M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M) RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 2.77% under budget

Well said. He's a supremely talented hitter. And there's value in that. But it's tough to fit on a roster when there's so many other parts to the game that he just doesn't bring anything to. I love watching Arraez hit. I love watching his joy for the game. I follow him on social and he seems like a great father, husband, and human. I enjoy watching him train. He's just such a unique player that it's hard to find the right fit for him. When you can only do 1 thing on the field it's always limiting. Even if you're the best in the league at that 1 thing. He's lucky his 1 thing is hitting. If it were running fast he wouldn't have a career at all. His free agency will be very interesting. He'll be 29 so it'll be interesting to see how teams think he'll age and how long of a deal he'll get.

Depends where Paddack falls on my list of pitchers and what my estimates are looking like for price tags on the free agents now. I think the general responses so far have been that prices are much higher than folks expected (TV money not killing contracts like people expected). Matthew Boyd just turned 8 starts into 2 years and 29 mil. Hasn't made more than 15 starts since 2019. Had a good 1/2 year in 2021 but otherwise wasn't good until his 40 innings for Cleveland this year. He's worth twice as much as Paddack for 2 years? He's 34 years old. Frankie Montas is better than Paddack, but not crazily better. 150.2 innings of 4.84 ERA last year. 4.71 FIP. He got 2 years 34 mil. Kyle Hendricks got 2.5 mil for a 5.92 ERA. He's 35. If the Twins are willing to take a random rookie ball flier just to get rid of his contract I think there'd be a number of teams happy to take his deal instead of waiting out the free agents because there's going to be pitchers in his talent level who get more than 7.5. The question is what the Twins are asking. I think he can be a really good reliever. If I'm another team I'm throwing the Twins a low level flier and taking on his 7.5 and putting him in the pen where I think his arm has a better chance of holding up and he can let his stuff play up. I think the Twins could drop his salary today if that's all they're trying to do. I think they're trying to get a real return for him and that's why they aren't moving him yet.

It's not something I'd be actively looking to do, but you should always be listening and there's a price for everything. As to which one you'd trade it's the one you can get the most for. If somebody is willing to hand you an MLB ready catcher and pre-arb middle of the order bat it's certainly something to think about long and hard. I'd be shocked if they got much better, though. Where are all you folks seeing the possibility for more upside? Just because they debuted at 25 so they feel young doesn't mean they have more upside. They're on the backside of their prime. They're not likely candidates to improve. Bailey Ober turns 30 next season. It's more likely he starts declining than he sees any kind of real improvement. I don't think this offseason is the time to do it, but selling Ober after the 2025 season is probably the smart thing for a team in the Twins financial situation to do. If SWR, Zebby, Festa, or someone else can establish themselves as a legit MLB starter trading Ober with 2 years of control left would bring in a really nice return. So many around here say you can win with a 130 mil payroll. Well, that's how you do it. This article is a year too soon, but this is the strategy teams in this payroll range need to follow if they want to win consistently. Joe and Bailey aren't young. They're veteran pitchers now. They're in arbitration. And once they're down to their last 2 years of control trades become a real possibility if ownership wants to swim in the shallow end of the payroll pool.

Considering Profar himself is going to cost roughly Vasquez and Paddack's combined salaries to sign I'm not sure how you propose bringing in Winker and Hays and/or Laureano on top of him for less than 130 mil in payroll when the Twins are at over 135 mil in payroll already. Better be trading Correa, Lopez, or Buxton to pull that off. Trading Castro wouldn't even get them under 130 mil if you're bringing in those 4 other vets. You're adding 25 million in payroll with those signings while dropping 17.5 and are already 7ish over the 130 mark. That math doesn't work. The Twins don't have money to bring in multiple vets. They need to cut money just to get to 130 mil in payroll.

I mean, there's a price for everything, but they've been awfully adamant that they aren't trading from their rotation. They don't have much behind them in terms of MLB ready pitching at all so it's not like they can move one and plug somebody in. It's always possible, but when there's no smoke and the team is saying they're not doing it I tend to think the ask is astronomical and it's effectively not going to happen. I think it's far more likely they deal prospects for MLB offense than it is they trade MLB pitching for MLB hitting. Rumors are Philly offered Bohm for one of their arms (Gilbert or Kirby were the rumors I saw) and Seattle essentially hung up on them (as they should have). Is Ford blocked by Raleigh in their eyes? He could bring back real offense for them. They have some position player prospects who could bring back some real offensive pieces. I'd bet on them taking that path before they trade from their rotation. But they're going to be getting calls all winter about their arms. The Twins aren't getting any of them, though.

Seattle isn't trading anyone from their rotation.

He caught at the Padres alternate site in 2020. So probably a little more experience than Escobar, but certainly nothing useful. Trying to become an MLB catcher at the age of 30 is pretty desperate, though. His bat fell apart real fast after 2022.

Are they ready? Not today. But they're going to have to after this season whether they're ready or not. So they better start figuring out what their plan is for the future, because it isn't currently in the system and they don't have any money to go get it after the season. As much as I hate watching them sit a hot hitter every other day for a horrid hitter, it's hard to argue with the health results of the catcher rotation the last 2 years. If they can get 2 catchers who aren't black holes at the plate and keep them both healthy with that strategy they could be in a really nice place. But they're going to have to swing a trade to get some catching at the top of the system before 2026 because they have nothing right now.

Ah, fair enough on Zebby. Thanks for the info.

I'd put Rodriguez 1 and Keaschall 2 with Zebby 3. I think Emma has the easier path to playing time (I've been a broken record about him being the opening day LFer if I were in charge). Buxton isn't playing 100 games in CF. Emma is the best all around CFer in the system behind Buxton. Keaschall will likely get some OF time, but he's not the defender Emma is. The Twins have more options in their IF than their OF. And Emma is the better power/speed combo which will lead to more fancy counting stats that will get the national attention that's needed to win things like RoY awards (it's a popularity contest). His patience will also draw comps to Soto which will get him on national shows which helps with the popularity contest thing. Overall, I just hope they don't block these guys with bad to mediocre vets. Even if the kids struggle. Let them. Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, Jeffers, Vazquez, Castro are your "core" position players as of December 3rd, 2024. I don't see drastic changes, but maybe they come. Until then those guys are getting the majority of the ABs while they're healthy. The rest should go to Emma (he'd be the 9th everyday guy in place of one of the catchers for me), Julien, Keirsey, and Martin with Keaschall, Helman, Lee, Camargo, et al backing them up from the minor league ranks. Let the young athletes go. You want more speed and stolen bases? Get younger and faster. Let the kids play. Emma rookie of the year 2025. Jenkins rookie of the year 2026. 2 extra draft picks in back to back years for more rookies of the year in 2030 and 2031. Twins dynasty here we come!

One use per game is 162 extra PAs. That's not "pretty small". Judge hit a HR every 12 PAs last year. Another 162 PAs would lead to another 13 or 14 HRs. Now he's threatening the HR record (71 or 72 total). In 2022 he hit one every 11 PAs. If he had another 162 PAs he'd have hit another 15. That would've had him at 77 HRs on the year. Now he's set the HR record. (This all obviously ignores time missed to injuries, etc.) "Does not count for statistical purposes?" Yeah, pretending things didn't actually happen has never really worked. If Aaron Judge hits 77 HRs in a season with the extra "Golden Bat" ABs people are going to debate the legitimacy of the record, but they aren't going to say he hit 62 HRs, they're going to say he hit 77 HRs. Because he hit 77 HRs. The back of his baseball card is going to say he hit 77 HRs. 162 extra times stepping to the plate is a significant number of extra times stepping to the plate.

That's not Manfred. That's front offices. The recent rule changes he's implemented are actually trying to combat that. I agree the game is less entertaining with the 3 true outcomes, dying of the starting pitcher, etc. but that isn't Manfred, it's the front offices. And ticket prices don't go up because starting pitchers cost more. They go up because they can. That's simple economics. Prices go as high as the market dictates they can go to maximize owner profits. People stop paying the prices and owners will stop raising the prices.

I'd certainly prefer that, but I don't see the path to anyone significantly better. Trade Paddack, doesn't hurt at all (although I'd put him in the pen as a 2 inning weapon). Trade Vazquez, only saves you a couple million after you sign another middling veteran glove only catcher. There's still no real money there to truly upgrade this spot, in my opinion. And that's why I'm on the Rodriguez train. You want to upgrade it? He's the best option. Because once you sign the veteran who's slightly better than Margot you're stuck with them. All year. No matter what. We all know it. Doesn't matter if he hits like Carlson while fielding like De La Cruz. He's here all year because they don't DFA position players. I'd love a true upgrade in LF and using Larnach at DH most of the time. But I don't see the path to that. I see a whole bunch of paths to Margot 2.0. And I want nothing to do with it. Laureano and Hays could be intriguing for 3-5 mil. But if they get the Cleveland Laureano or the Philly Hays are we going to be happy that Keirsey is OPSing .850 in St Paul while we watch Laureano OPS .500 in Minneapolis? Hays playing bad defense and OPSing .670 really better than Keirsey OPSing .650 and playing good defense? Guess that one may come down to what they'd do with the extra money. But at least Keirsey could play CF in that scenario. I'm just saying I don't think this is a debate between Keirsey and the 5th best free agent outfielder. I think it's a debate between Keirsey and a veteran Keirsey they can't send down and won't DFA. I think a half-assed "upgrade" is actually more harmful to overall roster construction than just running with all your young guys with options. At least they can move those guys around as needed and won't sit on them all year while they suck.

In general? No. But as the 4th or 5th outfielder for league minimum on a team with very limited means for upgrading their team this year? Yeah, I'll take it. I'll definitely take it over a guy who can't field and who's OPS is entirely built on hitting lefties. And if he's the top end of the scale and he's a league average bat who can legitimately play center field I'm taking that as my 4th outfielder all day long. Especially for league minimum.

Their numbers with the younger generations must be horrible. They were asleep at the wheel for far too long despite all kinds of people on the outside jumping up and down screaming that the sport was dying and they needed to do things to attract a younger audience to keep up with the NFL and not get passed by the NBA. Too late now. NBA flew by them and the NFL is long gone in this race. So now they're left with embarrassing ideas like this. This feels like a focus group testing. They're throwing the idea out and seeing what the reaction is. Testing the edges. Seeing how far they can go with each segment of the population to see how much they can change. And how quickly they can change it. I think this is a horrendous idea. But I'm no longer the target market. And I shouldn't be. I'm not the younger generation anymore. I'm a die hard who will still watch. They need to get younger fans watching. They needed to start doing it 20 years ago. But they really need to start doing it now. And if this is what it takes then they should do it. I just hope it isn't what it takes.

I'll note that even 200 points off Keirsey's AAA OPS from 2024 puts him above what Margot did in the majors in 2024. And just 9 points short of what De La Cruz did in 2024. Well above what Carlson did. Would've been about an 85 OPS+. 150 pts off would've had him at basically league average (about .005 pts below). As a center fielder that's absolutely MLB worthy. He's a great example of opportunity costing some prospects based on the organization they're in. If he's in KC's organization and Kyle Isbel is in MN's he's getting Isbel's ABs on a playoff team last year. Instead he's playing in St Paul.

Oh, I definitely realize I'm in the minority when it comes to starting Rodriguez in the majors. But you've actually laid out one of the reasons I'd do it. To avoid the next Margot, Gallo, Garlick, Farmer, Luplow, etc. signing. I can't stand the 1-tool specialists. I don't understand the logic and we've seen it play out year after year as to why the logic doesn't work. Just get me the best overall ball players and I'll take my chances. I'll take 2 months of Emma struggling with a .600 OPS before taking off with 4 months of an .800 OPS over Margot having a whole season of a .625 OPS. I want to collect as many tools as possible. I don't think they're finding a better shot at tools than him on the FA market or through a trade. So I'll take the early lumps for the later reward. But I realize not many are going to agree with that as it's seen as the riskier move.