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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Seattle would be a great fit if he's really weighing pitching development as highly as Wolfe says. Hard to argue with what they have going on right now. And that stadium will give him a great chance to put up some really impressive numbers. My guess is San Diego.
  2. chpettit19
    Who says there will be new ownership, who the new ownership will be, and that they will be supportive? And if there is new ownership that the people in charge of the pitching development will still be employed by the team? The sale of the team is why if I were Roki the Twins wouldn't even get a meeting. The instability of a possible sale changes everything with a team.
  3. chpettit19
    The Twins absolutely should've sent in their presentation. Every team should've. No reason not to. That's not what my comment was about. The author stated "While the odds might not favor a smaller-market team like Minnesota, the Twins are making a serious push. Fans should temper expectations, but remain hopeful that Sasaki could call Target Field home in 2025." That is what I'm questioning. They didn't provide any reasoning for that statement. What serious push are they making? They sent in 1 of 20 presentations. They didn't receive 1 of 7 known meetings. There has been nothing publicly reported that links the Twins to Roki Sasaki beyond quotes from the Twins saying they're interested. Nothing I've seen at least. What is this "serious push" the Twins are making? Why should there be hope beyond the fact that they sent in 1 of 20 presentations? It appears the author is doing the same thing people did with the previous agent's statements about the "soft landing" and just trying to find any way to connect them to the Twins. As far as I'm concerned there's no reason to be hopeful until the Twins get a meeting with Roki. Until then it's just people reading what they want to into an agent doing agent things and making generic quotes.
  4. chpettit19
    Did the Twins meet with Roki before he went back to Japan? Has it come out that he's had a zoom call with them since being back in Japan? Are there rumors they're scheduled to meet with him upon his return from Japan? Why exactly should we remain hopeful the Twins could land Roki? His agent's personal thoughts that Roki may want a "soft landing" in a smaller market were blown up immediately. He reportedly met with 7 teams while he was here (Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Rangers, Padres), none of which share a whole lot in common with the Twins. Are there reports out there about the Twins "making a serious push?" I don't recall seeing them connected to him in any way besides them saying they're interested and were putting together a presentation for him. Like at least 19 other teams did. Until the Twins get an actual meeting with Roki Sasaki there shouldn't be any hope or excitement for their chances because they don't have any chance. They very well may get a meeting, but I haven't seen any talk of it at all so I'm very confused why the news of him meeting with 7 teams that spend at a whole different level than the Twins or have one of his closest friends on the team (Darvish on the Padres) should give Twins fans hope that he's calling Target Field home in 2025.
  5. chpettit19
    Baldelli manages how Falvey wants him to. The platooning is a Falvey thing. Fire Baldelli, I don't care. But you won't see a manager brought in who does things drastically differently because the FO and the manager are not separate departments anymore. Falvey wants his team run a certain way. The way Rocco runs it. Cutting out Rocco doesn't fix the problem. They meet everyday to talk strategy. Everyday. Not here and there. Every single day. Rocco may be a disaster, but he's exactly what Falvey wants. He's told us that. Literally.
  6. chpettit19
    It's perfect that you left out the part where he says they talk about it. Sums up your thought process well on this one. Presented with insider info from front office personnel that the front office talks to the manager daily? Doesn't matter. Provided with direct Falvey quotes that he talks to Rocco about the decisions/strategies? Ignore that part. Provided with information that Falvey gives presentations about meeting daily with Rocco to discuss lineups and in game strategy? Why would that change anything? Rocco and the front office are a team. Here's another Falvey quote for you: "Rocco is my manager. I believe in his process, I believe in him, I believe in the partnership I have with him." Rocco isn't doing things Falvey doesn't think is smart. He's not sitting in meetings with his boss everyday for years explaining his decisions and having Falvey say "well that's dumb, I definitely don't agree with that and wish my manager would do things a different way." He's not having Falvey defend and back him when so many are calling for his head because Falvey thinks a team should be managed a different way. Of course Rocco makes the final call, but Falvey agrees with the calls he makes and how he manages, and they work as a team.
  7. chpettit19
    Roughly 75% of pitchers in the majors are right handed. You'd expect a hitter to have roughly 3/4 of his PAs against righties. According to those PA numbers, 74.57% of his PAs came against righties. Those are not at all dramatic platooning numbers, those are numbers you'd expect from playing everyday since 75% of pitchers in the majors are right handed. By comparison, Matt Wallner has faced 81.38% righties. Larnach 82.89% righties. Julien 88.58%. Those are dramatic platoon numbers.
  8. chpettit19
    To add to the Miranda thought...in his rookie year where he put up a very similar overall OPS+ he had a .721 OPS against righties but an .821 OPS against lefties. Did he forget how to hit lefties in 2 years? Or, as you ask, are they just 2 years with small samples that went different directions? Get good hitters and let them hit!
  9. chpettit19
    @USAFChief Does this change your opinion about the front office, and Falvey specifically, having any input on lineups or being on the same page as Rocco when it comes to how he manages the team? Great post, IndianaTwin. The SABR convention is a fun event if you're into that kind of thing. Get some pretty cool inside looks at things and how those in the industry view things and do things. Glad you enjoyed your experience!
  10. chpettit19
    Falvey realizes he's the one who provides the personnel, right? It's all well and good to say it's all on Rocco how he uses the players in game, but when you hand him Margot, Farmer, Garlick, Luplow, and Santana who all have massive platoon splits favoring facing lefties what do you think Rocco (or any manager) is going to do with them? I hope nobody actually believes Falvey has a direct line to the dugout to dictate in game moves or is forcing lineup decisions, but talking with Rocco about player usage in general is a big thing. That entire statement is a bunch of nothing. He puts it on Rocco while saying it's about personnel that he acquires and also saying they talk about the strategies in general. They're all on the same page and this is how they all want the team to be run and managed. You don't acquire clear platoon bats and watch your manager use them the way they should clearly be used and then defend your manager when your fanbase is calling for his head if you don't think this is the right way to do things. The FO and manager are all on the same page. As for the platooning itself, I think anyone who's on these threads regularly knows my stance. I hate it. Think it's the worst strategy they deploy. Worst part of their team building. Worst part of Rocco's in game strategy. Am legitimately concerned they will attempt to turn Rodriguez and Jenkins into platoon bats no matter how they perform just like they've done with Wallner despite his dominance of lefthanded pitching in the upper minors. Falvey may believe it's about personnel and that not every lefty has to be platooned, but he's never given Rocco a chance to test that theory unless injuries have forced it and I don't think he ever will/would over an offseason unless the budget forces it. I think their belief in platooning is a core belief in a way to win on the margins. I think they think they can matchup their way to better offensive numbers and I think it's actually done the opposite. Over and over and over because they seem to ignore the fact that injuries happen every year. To every team. And the other team gets to make pitching changes more than once a game. I hate it. Now I'm cranky. Stop the platooning madness! Free Wallner!
  11. chpettit19
    Absolutely not. I'm not trading Duran for a 27 year old with 14 MLB PAs and a 25 year old who's not better than any of the younger arms they already have stacked up at MLB and AAA. "Hey, we have to salary dump these 2 veteran contracts so we'll just trade our closer to fill their spots with a 27 year old catching "prospect" who was never really even a top-30 system guy and a 25 year old pitching prospect who's likely on his way to the pen instead of the rotation where he'd be fighting it out with the younger, better prospects we already have there." No thanks. I'm open to trading Duran, but it better be for something significantly better than this. I'd guess Duran is viewed as the next step down from 2022 Josh Hader, but the Padres got 1.5 years of control of Hader compared to 3 years of Duran control a team would be getting in a trade right now. The Brewers got an active MLB closer in Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, a top-10 system prospect in Robert Gasser, and a top-30 system guy in Esteury Ruiz (became the #9 prospect for the Brewers on MLB at the time of the trade) for 1.5 years of Hader but the Twins should trade 3 years of Duran for a non-prospect catcher and a borderline top-30 pitcher? No freaking way.
  12. chpettit19
    Christian Vazquez in his first year with the Twins had a catcher ERA of 4.09 and a RA9 of 4.28. In his second year he had an ERA of 4.34 and an RA9 of 4.63. In those 2 years while splitting catching duties essentially 50/50 Ryan Jeffers had ERAs of 3.61 and 4.17 with RA9s of 3.86 and 4.54. For all this talk of Vazquez's defense being so superior and it being so vital that they keep him around because of it and Jeffers being so bad defensively and his bat being the only useful thing about him, the same group of pitchers pitched to better ERAs and RA9s both seasons with him behind the plate than Vazquez. So the pitchers put up better stats while Jeffers also hit significantly better than Vazquez. What do people see in Vazquez that can't be replaced? I don't get it. His defense isn't that good. He's not saving them runs. He plays and people argue for him to stay because of his name and what he represents, not what he's actually done on the field for the Twins. Christian Vazquez isn't helping the Twins pitching staff while he's on the field. If he's helping them while he's on the bench and Jeffers is the one actually catching, there's a much better role for him than $10 million can't hit, can't throw, can't reduce runs catcher, it's called "coach." I get the argument that catcher defense matters and we want someone who can defend the position well, but arguing that Vazquez is that guy makes no sense. He brings nothing to this team and is actively hurting it. He needs to go.
  13. chpettit19
    Oh, I totally agree. Had a comment earlier in the thread about the future of catching not including framing and thats what lead to the discussion of framing. But how catchers receive, or "frame," a pitcher has been a core skill of catching defense for a long time because the human eye/brain can in fact be tricked by such things. It's not that catchers fool umps constantly, but if you can steal a strike or 2 a game vs losing your pitcher a strike or 2 a game it's a big deal. Robot umps will remove the need for the skill all together, but the other poster's comment that it's "junk science" is something people have been saying for a while. Well every major league team has been wasting decades on catchers who receive well because of that "junk sceince" instead of getting catchers who hit well and block pitches instead. How foolish of the entire baseball industry for generations.
  14. chpettit19
    Well I'll email all the teams and tell them to quit teaching it. They'll be happy to know. And Jeffers will be very happy to know he doesn't have to worry about it so can focus on blocking balls alone since how he receives doesn't matter. Thanks for clearing this up.
  15. chpettit19
    They both have the same 1.9 pop time and have for years. They have the same arm and the running struggles the Twins have are on the pitchers.
  16. chpettit19
    Oh, I wish they would make their own, but that's not an option for 2025. They don't seem to trust the coffee they have in the pantry. So, it's either the 5 dollar coffee they have or getting rid of that cup and getting one from a different store. They've been bad at developing catching. To be fair, most teams are. There's a reason the same handful of guys get passed around and always have contracts waiting for them. Like James McCann. I'm actually quite interested to see if there's any change in what the catching in the league looks like after the robo umps get introduced to the majors. The smart teams have been tracking how things are going in the minors and have figured out what they need defensively from catchers moving forward. Framing won't be a thing anymore so the Christian Vazquez's of the world will take a hit. But you still need to call a good game and block pitches and throw out runners. Maybe the Twins just mistimed things and thought the change was going to be here already and that's why they don't have any defensive catchers ready? The Sam Basallo style catching prospect may become the new prototype soon, though. And then we'll be ready! Oh wait, they don't have any offensive catchers ready either. Never mind. Yes, they need to step up their catcher development. But I hope they do it in a way that fits with the robo ump era.
  17. chpettit19
    Teams passing on him in the Rule 5 a year ago does not mean there wouldn't have been any other claims a year after he lead AAA in OPS. Leading AAA in OPS doesn't mean there would've been claims, but it would have been a risk.
  18. chpettit19
    Vazquez had -0.3 bWAR and a 64 OPS+ in his first year with the Twins followed by -0.2 bWAR and a 60 OPS+ in his 2nd year. 0.9 fWAR and 65 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR and 60 wRC+ if you're a Fangraphs person. McCann the last 2 years had 0.5 bWAR and 79 OPS+ and 0.8 bWAR and 94 OPS+. 0.3 fWAR and 77 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR and 89 wRC+. Those numbers are not almost identical. If you're a big believer in defense first/only behind the plate then you want Vazquez, but if you care about offense at all then McCann is very clearly the significantly better player. McCann's .646 and .667 OPS numbers the last 2 years may not be anything super impressive on the surface, but Vazquez failing to OPS .600 (.598 and .575) in either of his 2 years with the Twins is another level of offensive futility.
  19. chpettit19
    I'd take McCann over Vazquez if they could get somebody to eat a bunch of that 10 mil. Elias Diaz is the catcher I think they could get signed for cheap and replace Vazquez's defense while bringing some improved offense. I'm not sure why a team would trade for Vazquez instead of just signing one of these guys themselves unless the Twins add in a prospect sweetener, but if his name and reputation carry as much weight with some front office out there as it seems to in certain circles around Twins Daily then maybe they can convince somebody to take him and then sign one of these guys.
  20. chpettit19
    And the reason the seeding won't change is because they want the conference championship games to matter so they can keep selling those to the networks to continue to make crazy money off them in order for those teams to get those byes. The vast majority of the games during the 4-team playoff setup were blowouts, too. There's going to be very few upsets and a whole lot of blowouts. But people will keep watching and the networks will keep paying. It's shocking to me that it took this long to get the playoffs in college football with the money they're making off this stuff. With the greed involved in everything they do I can't believe this hasn't been in place for decades.
  21. chpettit19
    2019 was a long time ago in the sports world. 2020 was also a long time ago, and there were no fans allowed at the 60 games played that year. Many fans also found new hobbies to do during the summer months that year. Since then, the Twins have won 1 division title in an historically bad division where they were the only team to finish above .500. In the other seasons since that no-fan, 60 game season of 2020 they finished in last place with 73 wins, 3rd place with 78 wins after collapsing down the stretch, won the division where no other team had more than 78 wins, then finished 4th while beating only the team who set the all-time single season loss record as they again collapsed horrendously down the stretch. And during those years the president of the organization blamed the fans publicly for not showing up, the team's games were cut from numerous TV providers while their cable provider got into contract disputes with all of their partners, they had their games go black for half their TV customers in the 2024 season after having failed to come through on their promise to end blackouts for the 2024 season and gone back to their cable provider they were aware was in bankruptcy proceedings, had their owner say they had to cut payroll to "right-size" their business after having won their first playoff game in nearly 2 decades. The Twins are out of sight, out of mind for almost every casual sports fan I know. That's obviously a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, but their performance on the field since 2020 and their actions following the 2023 season has absolutely put them out of sight and mind with many. Either they can keep doing what Dave St Pete loves to do and blame the fans for not showing up or they can change how they act and rebuild their relationship with fans and get butts back in seats. The fans don't owe the Twins anything. It's on the Twins to sell their product. Do better. Change your strategy. Improve your product. Earn your fans back. 1 playoff series win in 20 years followed by an immediate announcement of a $30 million payroll cut shouldn't have you expecting wonderful future ticket sales numbers. This is on the Twins, not the fans.
  22. chpettit19
    So, star production is hard to sustain? The wRC+ for these guys were 155, 142, and 155. yeah, regression is definitely a concern. Especially when you consider Buxton lead them in games played at 102. I don't think anyone's expectation should be 150+ games of 150+ wRC+ out of any of these guys. That'd certainly be nice, but it shouldn't be the expectation. Wallner and Correa need to increase their games played (Correa being there to improve the team defense helps as well), Lewis needs to improve his games played and performance, Jeffers and Miranda need to improve their consistency, Larnach needs to repeat his performance, and everybody else needs to step up. But putting up the numbers these guys did is really, really hard. Like they'd be top 15 hitters in baseball if they did it over a full season hard. If you're expecting the Twins to have 3 top 15 hitters your expectations are probably too high. As is, they were top 20 hitters amongst players with at least 200 PAs last year. Correa and Wallner tied for 10th and Buxton was 18th. It shouldn't surprise anyone to hear no other team had 3 players in the top 20. The Dodgers (Ohtani and Betts), Yankees (Judge and Soto), Astros (Tucker and Alvarez), and Diamondbacks (Pederson and Marte) had 2 players each in the top 20, but nobody else had 3. These guys put up ridiculous numbers and regression should be expected. While regression should be expected we should also take time to appreciate how good these guys are. It's been a lot of doom and gloom around here as if this team has no talent. They weren't the White Sox last year. I get that the collapse was absolutely horrendous, but they were one of the best teams in baseball for most of the season. And there is very real talent on this team.
  23. chpettit19
    The Twins don't do opening day bench players. The Twins only do opening day role players. If Mickey Gasper is on the opening day roster it's because the Twins have plans to play Mickey Gasper. It's possible they just believe in his International League leading bat (for players with at least 200 PAs). That'd be interesting, and I'd wonder if it puts Payton Eeles in play for an opening day, or early season, job if he dominates in spring, as he was 18th on that list of International League leading hitters (Wallner was 30th for those who are curious). I'd guess the far more likely answer is he's the AAAA roster depth he appeared to be at the time of the trade. He started the year in AA for his 3rd (plus a 10 game cup of coffee in a 4th year) go round at the level. He did well there again and then lit AAA on fire. But he was 28. He should succeed in his 4th look at AA and 2nd look at AAA in his late 20s. He walks and doesn't strike out. That certainly gives him a fighting chance to be a utility type guy, and if he can actually catch that profile alone is plenty enough. But being that he's going to be 29 and he's never been given the slightest shot at being a backup catcher I find it hard to believe that he can actually catch. I have no idea, but guys who can put the bat on the ball, take a walk, and not strike out while catching tend to get shots before they're 28/29. While 1B/2B guys with no power have to hit like Luis Arraez to get a shot. And Mickey Gasper is not Luis Arraez.
  24. chpettit19
    Oh, I have no doubt ownership sees a path to more money. That's the safe answer to why teams decide to do any non-baseball item in question. I just don't think this (or The Battery) is anything new. And I don't think it automatically makes it a smart decision for the league. It may be good for the league, but it very well be yet another shortsighted decision that leads to an influx in cash while hurting their longterm success as they hurt their overall fanbase. We'll see. I'm nowhere near smart enough to make a strong guess. Outside of John Fisher seeing a path to more money with the move.
  25. chpettit19
    Target Field has hotels, bars, restaurants, retail, and parking around it. Atlanta has "The Battery." Toronto has a hotel in center field. The Cubs have Wrigleyville. Most MLB owners try to buy up property around their stadiums and make money off the stadium being there. I don't think the As are doing anything almost every other team hasn't done or tried to do. The difference really is the location. Vegas hotels, bars, restaurants, casinos, and retail are different than Minneapolis hotels, bars, restaurants, and retail. The ability of the locale to drive traffic to the area for those things that you can try to poach a few ticket buyers out of is the question. Tampa is constantly ripped for their stadium being in such a bad location where there's nothing around it. The Brewers have a casino right down the street, but like having their large parking lots around the stadium to allow for tailgating. I don't think this stadium outdates Target Field at all. I think Minneapolis not being as popular of a downtown as it used to be already did that damage to Target Field. Will the Fishers own those hotels, bars, restaurants, casinos, retail, and parking? And will they choose to invest the revenue from those businesses into their baseball team? Some owners do, some don't. Atlanta counts revenue from The Battery as baseball revenue and puts it into the team. Not every team does. If the Fishers don't own the revenue streams around the stadium or choose not to invest their revenue in the team that stadium may be just as empty as the Coliseum was after the novelty wears off. Will be interesting to watch.
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