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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Oh, I definitely wouldn't call a big league regular a bad outcome at all. It's a wonderful outcome. But I see that as his ceiling, not his most likely outcome. A player's ceiling isn't their most likely outcome. I don't see Bregman. I don't think Lee has 20 HR power let alone 30-40 HR power at his peak. Peak Bregman was an 8-9 WAR player and he's been a 4-5 WAR guy recently. I don't see that in Lee. That's a star player. I see more like a Lourdes Guriel with more like 15-18 HRs instead of 18-21. Or Alec Bohm. Some will call that a failure like they did with Sano because they have outsized expectations. That's a win, though. If he's Guriel or Bohm the Twins should be very happy. That's a win and he's an important part of the team. But people are building themselves up for Chipper Jones. He's not Chipper. People are expecting a top 5 in the order bat, I see a 6-9 hole bat on a championship type team. Much like Kepler. Useful player, but will come across as disappointing if put in spots where the expectation is that he's supposed to drive the offense. Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Emma, Jenkins, Wallner are those guys. He's the next level down that lengthens the lineup so there's no auto-outs. Like a Miranda. 110-115 OPS+ most years.
  2. chpettit19
    You don't need to use opinions. That's the point. You're refusing to use the actual information. Buxton, his agents, Falvey, Levine, and the Pohlads have given you the answers. What Nick guessed at doesn't matter. I gave you a link to an article. It talked about things that held it up. I listed one in my previous comment. His agents wanted his base salary to go up in subsequent years if he won the MVP in 2022. Twins didn't want that. It is now known knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay. I didn't say it was known before he signed. I haven't said anything about before he was signed. Who cares about rumors when you have the facts? You're basing your opinion about Falvey on rumors you've admitted were wrong, and called lies. So, yes, I'm actively discrediting that. Because that doesn't make any sense. He wanted something he didn't get (higher base pay for MVP award). He wanted something he did get (no trade). His demands and his leverage changed a lot over the years because of his performance and injuries. Again, many players want to stay on many teams who want that player to stay on that team and they can't come to an agreement. Even after negotiating for a long time. Joe Ryan may come to the end of his deal and want to stay and not end up staying because they can't agree on terms even if both sides wish they could. Both sides may want to do an extension right now, but if they don't agree on terms it doesn't happen. Freddie Freeman negotiated with Atlanta for a long time and couldn't get a deal done. When both sides are telling you the negotiations were good and everyone was trying and the rumors were wrong it's probably time to quit going off internet rumors you yourself call lies.
  3. chpettit19
    Julien: A .351 xSLG isn't good. If that's the selling point for improvement it's not a great selling point. For comparison sake, his xSLG in 2023 was .427. That was good for a 51st percentile rank. So basically average. His .323 SLG being below his .351 xSLG certainly isn't good, but if the regression to the mean is him getting to the xSLG of .351 he shouldn't be in the Twins plans for 2025. Lee: I've never been a big believer that Lee has star upside. Big leaguer regular is the ceiling I see. He looked like he was pressing last year, to me. Mixed with some injuries that isn't a great situation for a young player. I do believe he has a very good work ethic and I expect him to come back ready to put himself in a good position to put his best foot forward. But he's ticketed for AAA if I'm in charge. He has to earn his way back to the big league roster. Lewis: Appeared to run out of gas. A nearly 2 MPH drop in swing speed at the end of the season would seem to confirm that. The talent is there. Hopefully he's able to get a better routine in place for next season, stay healthy, and maintain his performance all season in 2025. Have no doubt about his talent, just his ability to stay healthy or not run out of gas.
  4. chpettit19
    Why would I care what was all over social media and you now openly admit was a lie? You stated your opinion was that Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. I said all the information we have suggests that's incorrect. It took over 4 years to get the contract done, actually. His injuries mixed with superstar production was a large part of it. But both sides were very open afterwards that they all stayed in very close contact and negotiated for over 4 years. It took 7 rounds of negotiations to get it done (according to this Dan Hayes article). Escalators and incentives for millions of dollars are complicated things. If he wins the MVP in year 1 does that boost his base pay for the remainder of the deal? By how much? If we give you a no trade clause can that escalator go away? Or lower? Is the NTC good for the whole deal of just the first 3 years? Both sides can be interested and still not get something done. The Astros likely wanted Bregman back and Bregman very likely wanted to go back there, but it sure looks like he's going elsewhere. Same with Correa and the Astros. Wanting the same thing and wanting the same thing at the same cost are two very, very different things. I didn't say anything about "common knowledge." And the serious negotiations happened for multiple years. You made claims about social media saying Buxton didn't want to be here and then said you thought Falvey extended him for more than Buxton was asking for. What's that based on? And, again, Levine ran contract negotiations while he was here. Was actually very well publicized that he ran the Buxton negotiations. So, he's the one you want to point the finger at if you think they gave Buxton more than he was asking for. If you don't believe me maybe you'll believe Buxton's agent Al Goetz who was quoted as saying "Thad was the front-runner, he was the guy who pioneered the whole thing. … Our willingness to be open all the way through this and Thad saying ‘I’m not giving up’ (got this done).'" Buxton can be interested in staying but still want to get paid $100+ million. If the FO isn't offering that then he's not just going to sign because he likes it here. The team can want him here and not just offer him an NTC just because they like him. They aren't giving up their ability to manipulate their roster as they see fit just because they like him. These contracts are complicated things, and his was even more because of his injuries. They take time and sometimes don't get done. It's the same for every team.
  5. chpettit19
    I'm saying your explanation is trying to sell it to us as "we're really not giving up much here because..." and that means the Marlins aren't getting much. Your argument is that these guys aren't that good. In that case why would the Marlins want that package? You went with an attempt at quantity over quality. Those packages don't work. Teams want quality. I think you gave up way too much, but that's because I don't want anything to do with Luzardo and I view a number of the pieces you suggested trading differently than you appear to. I was just pointing out the flaw in the logic in your explanation. "We'll give up a bunch of back end/average major leaguers or AAAA players for 2 stars" is not a realistic package. If teams are giving up stars they want star potential back.
  6. chpettit19
    Jesus Luzardo is never healthy. I'm not trading anything worthwhile for him. You can't be a #2 starter in the trainer's room. He's living off 1 dominant year in 6 seasons. No thanks. If you're right about all your projections, great the Twins didn't give up anything. But then, why would the Marlins want that return? Why would the Marlins want a bunch of AAAA players or back end starters? Quantity over quality for their 2 #2s? You're basically saying the Marlins would trade their 2 #2's (Alcantara is a Cy Young winner, hard to call that a #2, by the way) for 2 back end starters, a league average hitter, and a bunch of guys that don't deserve spots on major league teams while also maybe making them eat the contracts of Paddack and/or Vazquez? Why would they do that if all those guys are that useless? Keaschall is the only worthwhile player you've listed (according to your projections here) and both pitchers could return more than that on their own in an individual deal. Where is the motivation for Miami to take on this self-described terrible package of the Twins leftover roster waste?
  7. chpettit19
    Julien's approach has never been his problem, his inability to hit non-fastballs has. His swing path is way too steep and unless he can change that he's likely never going to be an above average major leaguer. That is what big league teams figured out about him. He can't hit breaking pitches so he doesn't swing at them. Then he got beat by fastballs a little more this year because he was so focused on the breaking stuff. He got 54.5% fastballs in 2023 and murdered them (.299 BA and .537 slug). Only got 50.1% fastballs in 2024 and struggled a little more (.253 BA and .433 slug). Struggled to make contact with anything that wasn't a fastball either year 43.6% whiff rate on breaking balls in 2023, 40.3% whiff rate on offspeed pitches. 41.3% whiff rate on breaking balls in 2024 and 42.9% whiff rate on offspeed pitches. Whiff rates of 20.5% and 22.6% on fastballs in 2023 and 2024. Overall whiff rates of 30.9% in 2023 and 29.1% in 2024 both worse than the 25% league average because he can't hit non-fastballs. His swing is his problem, not his approach. Not swinging at pitches you can't hit isn't a bad approach. Not being able to hit pitches is a problem, though.
  8. chpettit19
    According to reports Buxton wanted to stay so much that he was holding up the deal to get a no trade clause. Not sure where you're getting the "Buxton didn't want to stay" stuff. The front office, lead by Levine who ran contract negotiations while he was here, were in contact with Buxton trying to get things done the entire time. Plenty of articles about this all. Your opinion doesn't seem to be based on very accurate information.
  9. chpettit19
    As others have pointed out, the Twins already have Ryan (and Ober and Lopez) locked up through his prime. The Twins can't afford to pay for decline years. It's the nice thing about the Correa deal in that his guaranteed years end after his age 33 season. Is it crazy if they buy out 1 or 2 free agent years for Ryan and have him through his age 33 or 34 seasons? No, but also not necessary and is a risk for the money it'll cost. I know people are excited for possible new ownership, and so am I, but the Twins are a mid-market team. They can afford the Correa, Buxton, Lopez deals if the team is well run and produces the revenues the market should and gets to the payrolls they should, but the team is still going to need to trade away or QO guys who they have under control through their prime years like Ryan. That's how mid-market teams build sustainable winners. They need to have a continual flow of prospects who can backfill spots and that's a numbers game. Can't fill that just through your own draft picks. Need to add extra picks through the QO and extra prospects through trades. And then need to be top notch in developing those players.
  10. chpettit19
    Larnach wasn't good against them in the upper minors either. Its why I didn't mention him. 18 PAs in 2022, 46 in 2023, and 44 in 2024 is absolutely scattered. You shouldn't be making any decisions based on those sample sizes. Especially when you never know when the ABs are going to come because the expectation is you're going to be pulled anytime a lefty comes into a game. I think he has a realistic chance of getting better against them because he put up a .911 OPS across AA/AAA/MLB against them in 185 PAs in 2022 and an .848 OPS against them between AAA and MLB in 129 PAs in 2023. Is he going to OPS .850 against them in the majors? Not likely. But could he OPS .750+ against them? It's possible. 18.6% of his major league PAs have come against lefties compared to 29.2% of his total PAs in 2022 and 22.6% in 2023. So he's seeing them far more in the minors and succeeding at extreme rates. It's almost like playing everyday and seeing them regularly has lead to more success. It's not realistic to platoon every lefty unless you plan to only roster 3 lefties at any given time. But they've deprived all of their young lefties of MLB experience against lefties so when they are forced to rely on them against lefties they predictably struggle and then people like you point to it and say "see, can't trust them." Self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to more Margots on the roster OPSing .540 against righties to ensure Wallner doesn't face a lefty. It's an awful strategy that has lead to them not knowing if Wallner can hit lefties. Just like you'd expect a young/inexperienced hitter who destroyed the upper minors to improve in general with more MLB experience you should expect a young/inexperience hitter who destroyed the upper minors lefties to improve against MLB lefties with more experience. And Wallner destroyed the lefties the upper minors threw at him. If the Twins are going to treat Emma and Jenkins the same way they treat Wallner then they absolutely should not be looking to extend them and should instead be looking to trade them. If you're going to force your possible superstars to be part-time players you shouldn't pay them like superstars you should trade them for superstar returns.
  11. chpettit19
    "Keaschall, who will be an offseason Top 100 prospect if he can solidify his defense in center field." Sounds like his injury/surgery is what kept him off the updated top-100 on Fangraphs and we should probably keep an eye on what the preseason 2025 top-100 looks like at Fangraphs. He's already on the MLB top-100. I think you're underselling Keaschall pretty significantly.
  12. chpettit19
    Wade is an interesting idea. I like it if you're not going to put Emma on the opening day roster (and they're very likely not). But If Emma can OBP .380 himself then I'd prefer to keep the extra years of control of our hitters than move pieces for him, but certainly don't think it's an outlandish idea. I hope everyone is on the table. Including Buxton and Correa (no trades are waived all the time for the right situation) if it makes the team better. I think it's hard to make the team better by trading Correa, though (Buxton is a weird case with his injuries). I think the pen is the most likely place to see a trade. Duran or Jax could fetch a pretty big return and we know they like to go pen by committee and believe they can replace people by cycling through enough arms. To bring us back to the Emma and Jenkins topic, I'd prefer they just run Rodriguez out there on opening day and trust their youngsters. Fully. Don't pull the plug after 2 weeks. Tell him LF is his for the year. Injuries and poor performance means you can still bring in a Wade type as we know Buxton won't play all year and ABs will open up, but I want to go young. The budget is giving them more reason to do it. Answer the questions about everyone. Let 2025 be the make or break year for this roster setup. Can this offensive core be the answer? Find out by handing them the reins and seeing what they can do. You don't need to extend Emma to do that, but I hope they're not afraid to hand him a whole bunch of ABs along the way as they find out what they have in this roster.
  13. chpettit19
    108 scattered PAs is nothing. My point is he'll never prove it if he's never given the chance. If you don't let him play everyday you'll always have the excuse of him not having proved he can hit lefties. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Twins have to make a conscious decision to go into the season without a platoon for him. And to not start platooning him after 3 weeks if he struggles. Or they should be trading Rodriguez and Jenkins and we shouldn't be talking about extensions for them because if the only option for left handed hitters is to platoon them then none of them are worth extensions. If Wallner's minor league numbers don't earn him a shot at everyday PAs then Emma and Jenkins aren't going to earn them either and all the Twins are doing are producing platoon bats and those guys aren't worth the extension deals this article is about and they should be traded because their prospect worth is higher than their actual worth as part-time players. If you're not going to let any of them go the Gunnar Henderson route just trade them all for right handed hitters that you'll actually let play everyday.
  14. chpettit19
    No thanks. He can't stay healthy. We don't need more guys who can't stay healthy on this team.
  15. chpettit19
    What cheap 1B/DH are they bringing in through trade who has a better track record than these guys and who are they trading to get them? I'm not saying it's not possible, but are you expecting them to trade some of their AAA pitching? Getting better hitters than they have without spending more money means trading some pretty significant prospects. I guess I'd be surprised if they did that.
  16. chpettit19
    Totally fair. They're in a very weird/tough spot. Much of which is of their own creation some of which has been bad luck. Wallner's K rate is likely never going to be pretty. But he's put up some pretty darn impressive numbers the last 2 years anyways.
  17. chpettit19
    They very well might, but it's not going to be one that is likely to hit better than any of the 3 guys we're discussing here. Santana isn't a better hitter overall or especially against righties. Goldschmidt is on his way out of the league. France hasn't been good in a couple years. Turner wasn't as good as Larnach last year and you'd expect him to be going down with Larnach still pointing up. The Twins aren't shopping in the section of the free agent market that should have them trading cost controlled young players to open spots for 1 year vets.
  18. chpettit19
    You should go look at Wallner's upper minors numbers against lefties. He's very much shown he can hit lefties when give the chance. The reason there's only so many spaces for left-handed hitters with the Twins is because they force it to be that way. That is not a situation you're going to sell me on. He's never going to prove he can hit lefties if you constantly fill the roster with short-side platoon bats to avoid ever giving him the chance. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  19. chpettit19
    Why would they trade either of them? Why wouldn't Rodriguez be the opening day LFer and soon to be CFer when Buxton gets hurt, Larnach the opening day DH, and Wallner the opening day RFer? Why would you trade either of those players if Rodriguez makes the opening day roster?
  20. chpettit19
    Jenkins isn't signing any deal this offseason. He's not close enough to debuting. He's more likely to be a pre-arb extension guy because if he's as good as we all hope he has a shot at debuting at the end of this year, but he's not a Chourio type who's ready for opening day. Emma fits this mold of pre-debut deal prospect, though. Ready to debut and is just a question of how confident the team is in their projections for him. If you're supremely confident like the Brewers were with Chourio then you try to lock him up and put him in LF on opening day. If not, you wait. The sale is certainly not nothing, but I don't know that it means they're shut down for business. What if they aren't able to sell? They just waste an entire offseason? The reports coming out recently are that the Twins are still gathering all their info to even have an idea of what they think they're worth. I believe Falvey was the one quoted as saying they're still on Step 1 of the process which is all internal and has nothing to do with talking to prospective buyers. If they come out of Step 1 with a 2.2 billion asking price and Step 2 has buyers coming in with a 1.5 billion bid how long are they going to refuse to sign anyone long term for? On a 1.5 billion bid how much does an $8 million per year 8 year extension for a top-40 global prospect scare you? What if it's 12 a year for 8 years? If the Brewers went up for sale today does the Chourio deal help or hurt them? I think we're overselling what an individual contract means in this sale.
  21. chpettit19
    His velo seems to be the pretty clear key. Can he find a way to maintain something in the mid-90s? I don't think he's likely to be anything better than a #4 type starter, but, as others have said, that's a valuable piece. Being able to produce your own pitching also means being able to produce your own #4s. You can't only produce #4s, but not having to sign the Happs of the world just to fill out a rotation is useful. I don't know where his career goes from here, but he had a really nice year last year and kept the Twins in almost every game he pitched when they really needed him to. He was looking like his career was about over and he put in the work and is set to have a real shot at being a major leaguer for a long time. Good for him. I don't think he's a star, but most aren't. Solid major leaguer is a really nice outcome for anyone. He looks like he has every chance to be that.
  22. chpettit19
    I'm certainly not suggesting he's a finished product and there's no room for growth. And I am also no fan of the short-side platoon vets. They're my least favorite thing about this front office. I hate them. So sick of them. Never want another one on the roster. I really hope they don't turn Martin into one even if I don't think he has a very high ceiling. Just like I hope they don't turn Wallner, Emma, Jenkins, et al into platoon bats. The platooning drives me nuts. I'm just saying that we probably shouldn't expect too significant of an increase in his defensive skills. I hope we see it, but probably shouldn't expect it.
  23. chpettit19
    But Baseball Savant says Willi Castro was the Twins 6th best fielder (+3 fielding run value) and Manuel Margot was tied for 4th worse (-3). Tied with Julien and Kirilloff who you name as a big problem on your other post. And Royce Lewis was 8th (+1). We're not going to agree on this. Your stances are well known. Give you all the vets. Give you all the defense no matter if they can hit or not. I'll take my thumbs downs from you and survive another day. Arguing that Margot or Farmer are better baseball players than Castro is quite the stance to take. I'm pretty sure we've been over where those defensive metrics you quote on b-r come from. You treat them as if they're like a batting average and based on hard data. They aren't. They're people like you and me sitting behind computer screens making judgement calls. Willi Castro is a better baseball player than Margot or Farmer. Suggesting otherwise makes this a nonsensical discussion I want no part of. Enjoy your day.
  24. chpettit19
    You're right. Trade Castro and bring back Margot! Save the Twins! Solid point. Really got me on this one. In fact, trade Castro to Colorado for Farmer. World Series here we come!
  25. chpettit19
    Watching his stolen bases this year will be fascinating. He wasn't pitching last year so he didn't need to save his legs. Will be very interesting to see if he's told not to run so much this year when he's back on the mound and they want him to save his legs.
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