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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Better be the 2nd of 2 trades because you can't trade your only MLB quality catcher without having first brought in another one.
  2. chpettit19
    These are the top 5 I'd have, but I'd put Lewis 1 because I've seen him do it so he gets the boost. Correa belongs at 6 for me and Buxton belongs on the list while Julien doesn't. Lee is too high as I don't see more than an average player, but I hope he's the star others see. 1. Lewis 2. Jenkins 3. Ober 4. Ryan 5. Pablo 6. Correa 7. Keaschall (probably too high, but just feels like a guy to me so he's my wildcard flier) 8. Wallner 9. Rodriguez 10. Jax 11. Duran 12. Larnach 13. Buxton 14. Festa 15. Lee 16. Miranda 17. Jeffers 18. Zebby 19. SWR 20. Prielipp (why not add another wildcard for funsies at the end here?)
  3. chpettit19
    Jose Berrios wasn't under contract for the time Lopez has been with the Twins. Sonny Gray was the Berrios replacement. Not Lopez. Berrios' time with the Twins was going to be up after 2022. Pablo Lopez didn't get to the Twins until 2023. You didn't have to trade Jose Berrios to afford Lopez because Berrios wouldn't have been here anymore anyways, you could've just let him walk. Instead the Twins got Sonny Gray and were able to pair him with Lopez and win their first playoff series in 2 decades. The Berrios trade had no factor in the Lopez trade. Simply not extending Berrios would've done the same exact thing financially for the Lopez extension. You didn't need to trade him to afford Lopez. They aren't connected.
  4. chpettit19
    1. Your timeline is incorrect. The Twins traded for Sonny Gray before 2022, then they traded for Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline during the 2022 season to try to improve their playoff odds that season. Sonny Gray was not acquired to make up for the Tyle Mahle trade because he was already on the roster. 2. The math on the Gray for Berrios swap is really 2 years of Gray plus 6 years each of Martin and SWR for 1.5 years of Berrios plus 6 years of Chase Petty. For the year the Twins still would've had Berrios under control (2022) Berrios had a 5.23 ERA in 32 starts. Sonny Gray had a 3.08 ERA in 24 starts. You can determine which you'd have rather had that year. The question of whether or not the Twins could, or would, have extended Berrios is hard to answer. The reports were they tried and couldn't get it done and that's why they traded him. I guess you can believe what you want on that. You can decide what you want on the 3 prospects. But that was the swap that was made, not the one you suggested. 3. Arraez for Pablo doesn't factor in at all so it makes sense that you wouldn't include that since it isn't related because Gray was the one who replaced Berrios on the roster.
  5. chpettit19
    He was discussed. Varsho is considered the best defender by the metrics (take that as you will) by a long shot over the last 3 years, which is the sample they use in their calculations. And Doyle has some pretty nasty Colorado splits. Not agreeing or disagreeing, just giving you what they said on the show when they talked about the guys who just missed. I'll add that I think Pete Crow Armstrong is the best defender in CF, but Doyle is certainly very, very good and has an argument for being on the top 10.
  6. chpettit19
    MLB Network started their annual countdown of the Top 10 Players Right Now at each position last night (CF was last night) so I'm watching those each Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday for the next few weeks. I find it fun to go create my own list at each position. CF was harder than I expected with Buxton and Trout.
  7. chpettit19
    Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Elly De La Cruz were the only 3 players to put up 30, 10, 30 last year. Corbin Carroll did 20, 10, 30. They were the only guys in baseball with 10 triples. 10 triples is probably too big of an ask. Only 19 guys had 6 or more triples. 32 reached 5. There were also only 17 players in baseball last year to hit 35 doubles. 47 hit 30. 24 guys stole 30 bases. If we lower the numbers to 30 doubles, 5 triples, and 20 SBs the list of players who did it last year is Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr, and Jarren Duran. The numbers you're suggesting Martin may get to are above superstar numbers. If you take triples out and just go 30 doubles and 20 SBs you're at the guys listed above plus Altuve, Arozarena, Willy Adames, Zach Neto, Steer, Oneil Cruz, Nico Hoerner, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Couple of more random names in there with Hoerner, Neto, and Steer, but still a pretty exclusive list. I think we all hope he gets there, but the odds are not in his favor that he reaches numbers only 14 guys in all of baseball reached last year.
  8. chpettit19
    MLB Network did their Top 10 Center Fielders last night. Buxton ranked #3, which surprised me, but in looking at the list I don't think is too crazy. There really aren't many top flight, 2-way center fielders in the game right now. At least not many that stay healthy. I think I would've had Buxton in the #4 or 5 range after taking a look at all the options which isn't what I would've guessed based on his games played. Curious what other people's list of top 10 CFers in the game look like! No Judge, Bellinger, or Duran for this exercise as they don't expect those guys to be playing CF for those who are questioning their lack of appearance on the list.
  9. chpettit19
    Roki needs to sign by January 23rd.
  10. chpettit19
    Location, location, location. If Varland can keep his pitches on the edges he probably has a nice career ahead of him. If he can't, he's probably ticketed for a journeyman existence as he'll get numerous chances because dudes who can throw 100 tend to get chances.
  11. chpettit19
    In their heart of hearts, I'm pretty sure they're disappointed in the return for Berrios. Martin looks eminently replaceable and SWR looks like a back of the rotation starter that you hope to be passed up by another arm with higher upside. It's not a horrible return or complete bust, but I'm pretty positive this is not what they were expecting/hoping for when they hung up the phone after agreeing to that deal. It's nowhere near a disaster of a deal, but it's certainly not a win. They gave themselves two solid swings at a really nice return with two publicly respected prospects. Both pretty quickly lost luster and neither appears likely to hit anywhere near their ceiling. It happens. But if they can both contribute, even on the margins, it's certainly better than coming away with nothing.
  12. chpettit19
    Oh, yeah, I don't think they went into it planning to fail his physical and use that as a negotiating tactic. I guess I didn't read that comment that way, but if that's the claim I don't agree. But the Mets did try negotiating off the failed physical.
  13. chpettit19
    Some of it is the kind of strategy you want to take. Sure, the Twins have one of the top signing pools, but the top guys are going to cost 2/3 of it. Do you want to take one big swing or do you want to take a bunch of medium swings? Most of these kids are 16 years old. You get some Cubans who are older and some Japanese like Shohei and Roki as well. But mostly they're 16-year-olds. 2015 sums it up pretty well. The top 5 (according to MLB.com to stick with the rankings provided in the piece) that year were Yadier Alvarez, Vladimir Gutierrez, Yusniel Diaz, Alfredo Rodriguez, and Eddy Martinez. Not exactly a who's who, right? Well #7 that year was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not crazy low, but clearly better than those first 5. Then at 19 you get Andres Gimenez. Clearly much too low. Leody Taveras hasn't been anything special but has an MLB career so #22 is too low compared to those top 5. But #25 and #30 that year are names I'm pretty sure you've heard of...Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. It's hard as heck to accurately scout the 18-22 year old high school and college kids for the draft and 16 year olds is a whole other level of difficult. Rodriguez was the #12 prospect when they signed him. So, no, not #24, but also not top 5. And there's 3 catchers on their top 50. #'s 17, 31, and 41. Having the most money doesn't guarantee you whoever you want. There's also some politicking and relationship building. Money isn't the reason they aren't getting Roki Sasaki. That's an entirely different situation.
  14. chpettit19
    The Mets offered Correa a follow-up deal that included an "exclusion clause" that voided future years if he spent a specific number of days on the IL due to an injury to his ankle. They also offered him a 6 year deal. They did negotiate around the ankle and the Mets were ok with the 6 year terms. 157 million were the rumors on the guaranteed money. With 6 options years on the end. They wanted to do physicals on him after the last 6 years, though. So, yes, there was some evidence.
  15. chpettit19
    Is it worth it to trade him for nothing so the Pohlads can save $7M+ or the Twins can snag Manuel Margot again? If trading him facilitates and actual improvement of the team, by all means trade him. I don't believe at all that that's the case, though. I think trading him leads, at best, to another 1-year vet platoon bat that won't be cut no matter how much they struggle or a washed-up reliever that wouldn't do any better than Paddack but will cost less so the Pohlads save a little money. I'd rather have Paddack. 7 mil doesn't buy you anything useful.
  16. chpettit19
    Wallner had an OPS+ of 149 even with the terrible start. wRC+ of 155. Larnach was 116 OPS+. 121 wRC+. Neither is a great defender or base runner so I can't believe your separator was either of those things. Wallner pretty clearly had the far superior offensive season, albeit in significantly fewer games. He tied Correa and Gunnar Henderson for 10th best wRC+ in baseball amongst hitters with at least 200 PAs.
  17. chpettit19
    Isn't the only difference really the contract? Emmanuel Rodriguez has never played 100 games in a professional season because of injuries. And has some pretty big questions about being able to make enough contact to be a real threat in the majors. I like him. I'd put him in LF for the Twins on opening day, but he's a prospect who's never played in the majors with real questions about his hit tool and his ability to stay healthy. That's super volatile and high-risk. It's just cheaper. Is him being league minimum, but possibly not an actual MLB quality player really worth 9 spots on this list? Brooks Lee has very serious health concerns and put up some of the worst swing speed data in baseball last year. Lee's back issues are every bit as concerning as Correa's foot issues. He's only had 1 truly top notch stretch of minor league performance. That's super volatile and high-risk. It's just cheaper. Is that really worth 10 spots on this list? I think 16 is way too low for Correa. If you're going to hold his health concerns against him you should hold Emma and Lee's against them. And add their prospect/performance concerns as well.
  18. chpettit19
    I'd put both Rodriguez and Wallner ahead of Lee. Wallner Ks a lot, but he's still put up massive numbers and Rodriguez outhit Wallner, at a younger age, in AA while playing superior defense and being a bigger base running threat. Lee doesn't have the ceiling either of those 2 players has.
  19. chpettit19
    70 maybe? He has good stuff. He's never healthy, though. Plenty of guys with worse stuff than him have gone and seen their stuff play up in the pen in short bursts. You never really know, but I'd say it's a better than 50/50 shot and I'd rather try that than just trade him away for nothing just to save the Pohlads a couple bucks. If you can get an actual return for him it changes the equation. If clearing his money opens the door for a different trade or signing of a player with a better chance to improve the team (not a Margot type addition) I'd take that, but if it's a straight salary dump I'd rather see them take a chance at him in the pen where I think there's a solid chance he's really good.
  20. chpettit19
    Sort of, thanks for asking. His pen data is far too small of a sample size to draw conclusions from. Not sure why you left out his 3.2 innings of 0.00 ERA with 6 Ks and 1 base runner allowed against Houston in the postseason that year, though. I don't know if he'll dominate out of the pen, but I liked the way he looked in 2023, and he has good stuff so there's a solid argument to be made that he'd be really good in short bursts allowing his stuff to play up. I don't think it'd be smart to rely on less than 10 innings worth of data to determine his potential there so I was using good old fashioned human scouting on this one. I don't think he's worth a rotation spot because I don't think he can stay healthy in the rotation. I'm not interested in flat out salary dumps if the Pohlads aren't absolutely forcing it. So, if it's an option, I'd prefer to try him in the pen where it's quite reasonable that he'd be very good like he was against Houston.
  21. chpettit19
    75%
  22. chpettit19
    I don't even know what those numbers represent. They aren't stolen base leaders, or at least not correct ones. So not sure what kind of response you're looking for. Edit: Oh, I see, they're team stolen bases. Just write that next time. Well that other post asked about the difference between minor league stolen bases and major league stolen bases. That post doesn't explain that at all. So, I'm still confused on what you want me to say since you didn't actually address the question at all.
  23. chpettit19
    They have more speed and athleticism in the minors. And it's easier to steal on minor league pitchers and catchers. There was a guy with 104 steals in the minors last year (Chandler Simpson). In 110 games. Another with 74 steals in 108 games (Enrique Bradfield Jr.). Two with 65 steals. 3 more with over 60. 14 others in the 50s. Only 4 of those players played at least 120 games. So, 21 total players with at least 50 steals and only 4 of them played at least 120 games. There were 3 major leaguers with 50 steals last year. All played at least 155 games. Major league pitchers and catchers are much better at managing the run game. It's harder to steal in the majors. It's not just a Twins thing.
  24. chpettit19
    I have no idea what their payroll will be. It's certainly feeling more and more like 130 is too low. But Gleeman, Hayes, and Park at least have used the 130 number in articles. It's not just people on Twins Daily saying it, it's also people very closely connected to the Twins who speak to people inside the Twins organization about such things. Do the Twins themselves ever give statements about what the actual payroll number is or do those estimates always come from people like Gleeman, Hayes, and Park? From my recollection it always comes from reporters telling us what they're hearing from their sources. Which is what we're getting this year as well. Now 130 may be wrong. And we should also remember that the payroll number doesn't have to be hit by opening day. They don't cut everyone their check on opening day. They can trade people throughout the year to clear salary as well if needed. Like keeping Paddack until the deadline and trading him then to clear 3+ million. Maybe people shouldn't state it's an absolute mandate to cut salary down to 130, but I also don't think you can claim that the Twins don't need to cut salary. At this point we don't know anything for sure. But at least 3 people very tied into the Twins have given 130 as the number so it's as decent of a guess as any.
  25. chpettit19
    That came after the hypothetical "if they decide to blow it up." I didn't call the Twins a 65 win team.
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