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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    🤷‍♂️
  2. chpettit19
    Zoll said on Inside Twins about a month ago that they were going to keep him as a SP but then reports started coming out that they're going to put him in the pen more or less as long as they get through spring with a healthy rotation. So kind of mixed messages.
  3. chpettit19
    It'll be an interesting situation to follow. The reports that came out after the Rule 5 were that the Twins tried to trade for him before the draft and couldn't come to an agreement, so they just took him in the draft. I'd certainly think they'd try again but wonder what the cost will/would be.
  4. chpettit19
    I wasn't thinking about trades, but that's a good point. And I don't think many of us considered those guys "low risk, low reward." The FO has taken some swings, and I appreciate that, but it feels like they did half the job and now have been taking fewer and fewer real swings. The payroll certainly plays a part in that, but my argument has been that the 33ish mil spent on a handful of "low risk, low reward" vets could be better spent on a bigger swing and pre-arb guys. I categorize Vazquez as "high risk, low reward." I think that was pretty much the feeling around most of the industry when that contract was announced because it was reported for a while before he signed that he didn't want to come here, and after he signed it was pretty universally accepted that he came here because they were the only team to offer him a 3rd year and were by far the biggest contract. If they signed him for about 5 a year like the rest of the glove only guys get he'd be more of the "low risk, low reward" signing. Instead he was the worst type of contract (like Gallo) of "high risk, low reward." There's logic in their strategy. One can make a solid enough argument for most every player they've brought in (including Gallo and Margot). I don't think anyone is saying there's no logic in anything they do or there's no good reason at all for any of these individual moves, some of us just prefer the higher variance methods that come with the increased chance of being great. I always say I'd prefer a team that can be anywhere from 75 to 95 wins over the team that's in the 80 to 85 win range. Not everyone agrees, and that's why we all come on here and share our thoughts.
  5. chpettit19
    I like the added athleticism and bat to ball skills. Kind of a shorter version of Neto or Wilson from the last couple years in my mind. Maybe more Wilson than Neto as Neto has added some real pop, but they're those athletic, scrappy, small college guys who just know how to put the bat on the ball. I like it.
  6. chpettit19
    It means players who aren't likely to OPS+ 60 but also aren't likely to OPS+ 110+. They're guys who's likely outcome are slightly below average to league average. They make it so you don't have a White Sox season because you're not risking completely inept play but instead are getting yourself just slightly worse than average. But you're also not giving yourself a realistic shot at a 95 win season and the ability to make real noise in the playoffs because you're limiting the ceiling of your team by adding numerous guys who nobody would bet will break out with a 120 OPS+. They're players the FO hopes will narrow their variance by raising the lower end of the likely possible outcomes but also lowering the upper end of the likely possible outcomes. And outside of the Correa, Donaldson, and Cruz signings have they brought in anyone who wasn't a "low risk low reward" vet? We describe nearly all of them that way because it's what nearly all of them are.
  7. chpettit19
    Margot was a trade last year. Kyle Farmer was a trade the year before. MAT was a trade. Trades have been a part of this strategy for years. They both sign and trade for these floor setting kinds of players.
  8. chpettit19
    They had to lose another player (Helman, Henriquez, or Headrick) to make this "light a fire" move. MLB teams don't give 40-man spots away easily. Certainly shouldn't be waiving guys to "light a fire" under guys as camp starts. If Miranda or Julien weren't going to be busting their butts in camp already the team should know that by now and have moved on from them.
  9. chpettit19
    Read the next sentence after the "you get one down year with me" sentence and see if you want to stick with that Royce statement. The part about back to back years being the trigger for me no longer trusting a player is pretty key there. I don't trust Royce to stay healthy because he's done it in more than back to back years. He's had 1 "down year" in terms of his numbers. So my hopes for Royce will remain the same as they were before his 1 down year. He struggles this year, and then, as I pretty clearly said, I will no longer think his odds of being great are high. Miranda still being on the roster doesn't make France not a floor move. That isn't how it works. France has his own odds of raising the ceiling. Miranda being there or not doesn't change that. As I said in an earlier post, it's possible France is good. Maybe he goes Profar on it and is a star. But the odds aren't high. The odds are what makes any move a floor or ceiling move. Adding France isn't suddenly a ceiling move because Miranda is still there. Adding Freddie Freeman would be a ceiling move even though Miranda is still there. Because they're separate odds. The floor you're more describing is simply keeping the team the same vs changing it. Changing the team doesn't automatically mean you're not just further securing the floor without adding to the ceiling. The odds are that this move just further secures the floor while not raising the ceiling one inch. Who really cares about the Twins doing what any of us want? We're a bunch of strangers on the internet debating sports.
  10. chpettit19
    He hasn't been his best in 3 years. Sorry, you get 1 down year with me. You do it back to back years and the odds of you being that "high upside" player again, especially as you get into your 30s, are not high anymore. Like I said in the part you deleted, he may be good. But it's about the odds. The odds of Miranda putting up a 115ish OPS+ are higher than the odds France does. I don't know how you can disagree with that. And neither is a good defender so it's not like he's a Santana type glove first guy. It's all about their bats. And Miranda has the better chances of being a good hitter.
  11. chpettit19
    Giving him 25% of the plate appearances to try to hit like he did for the first 4 months of last year (all of which were better than France, and the 5th month was barely worse than France) is the complaint. Well, part of the complaint. The other part of the complaint is that the bar they're trying to clear is "be better than an injured and falling apart Miranda." Replacing a player you're worried may be bad with a player you know is bad is a weird strategy to support.
  12. chpettit19
    Turning Jose Miranda into a short side platoon bat so you can play Ty France would be quite the choice.
  13. chpettit19
    I really liked France 2 years ago. If I remember correctly, I even advocated for getting him last year with the thought that 2023 was a down year and he'd bounce back. He didn't bounce back. He got worse. Even with playing 52 games in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Maybe he bounces back. Maybe Bader bounces back. Maybe they both pull Santana's and have shockingly effective looking seasons. It's entirely possible. But the chances aren't high. This is another "floor" move. I'm so sick of the floor move. I don't know when Falvey got the green light for more spending. It very well could've been a week ago. But this has been nearly as disappointing of an offseason as last year. They continue with their multiple questionable "vets for good money on 1 year deals" trend. I think every reasonable person on these boards understand that the young guys may fail. They may all fail miserably. But they may not. The odds of them being good are significantly higher than vets who have proved they aren't. As I said in paragraph 1, it's completely possible these guys surprise and are good. But team building is all about the odds. You're trying to predict the future. What percent chance do we have of X happening is the question. The Twins seem to be hyper focused on raising the percent chance that the floor doesn't fall out from under them even if it costs them on the chances of reaching the ceiling of "true contender." Is it because of the 2022 and 2024 collapses? I don't know. Reasonable guess. But I'm sick of it. I want to raise to percent chance of raising the ceiling even if it means risking the floor crumbling. Planning to not be worse than "ok" leads to your best chances being that you're "ok." I'm so sick of "ok."
  14. chpettit19
    Have the Twins announced that he's here for 1B? He said he was willing to catch this year. Are we sure he's not the Vazquez replacement? This is sarcasm, don't freak out. He really did say he was willing to catch this year, though.
  15. chpettit19
    I'm not a Julien believer. Don't think his swing will allow him to hit breaking balls well enough and they'll just keep throwing him more and more. But I do believe in Miranda. I think he can hit. I question his ability to stay healthy, but what else is new with this roster? I don't think 1B would be the best use at all of Keaschall's athleticism, but I think he'll be ready to debut at some point this year and am happy with him as the insurance for a major Miranda injury. If they could get Mountcastle or Diaz for cheap in trade I'd be good with that, but there isn't a single free agent worthy of blocking Miranda, in my opinion.
  16. chpettit19
    To me, it isn't about making the roster out of spring at all. It's just about what's best for preparing them for the future. I lean towards getting experience with the big club to see how they all go about their work and helping build his routines. But the idea that he'll get more time with coaches to focus on skills is a reasonable enough thought on sending him straight to minor league camp.
  17. chpettit19
    That's a reasonable enough guess at why he wasn't invited. Not sure it's what I'd do, but reasonable enough stance. Hopefully he's just on the 40-man next year after he gets a September call-up, and we don't have to ever think about this again!
  18. chpettit19
    Good call. Was so focused on Jenkins I didn't look for Eeles.
  19. chpettit19
    Rizzo is done. His career is over. Had a great career. It's done now, though. If you don't think Miranda is worth ABs over Rizzo you should be shopping him to see if anybody values him at all. Yes, I know defense matters, but nowhere near enough to accept how awful he is at hitting now. Turner isn't a great defender at 1B so you're not getting more than Miranda provides. Which means it comes down to who you think can hit better between them. One could make a reasonable argument for either one. But I'll take the guy in his age 27 season over the guy in his age 40.
  20. chpettit19
    No Walker Jenkins confuses me. I wonder what their reasoning is to not get him as much exposure as possible to big league players and their routines. I assume we'll see him in some spring games with the big boys, but why wouldn't they want to give him a few weeks with Carlos, Byron, and the boys to learn from them?
  21. chpettit19
    I think this is actually evidence in how their macro focus is wrong. It's not about individual players; it's about generalizations with them. Santana can stand in the left-handed batter's box so he's golden (obviously, his defense also played a role in him getting ABs). Wallner can't stand (well doesn't, I suppose he could it just wouldn't be pretty) in the right-handed batter's box so he's cut off. Wallner's performance against lefties in the minors doesn't earn him any extra leeway in the majors because of the box he stands in, not because of his performance. Willi has been bad against lefties in both of his years with the Twins, but he can stand in the other box so he gets to be bad (again, defense plays a role here). That's my, and I believe other's, complaint. Platooning makes sense and should be done. But Wallner putting up .900+ OPS numbers against lefties in the high minors should get him a chance to hit lefties on a regular basis (sit him against Skubal and Snell types, sure), but it doesn't. Not because of him and his performance, but simply because he's left-handed. It's frustratingly rigid based on the L/R/B next to their names on the lineup card. Platooning makes sense and should be used. Every team uses it. It's the rigidness based on macro level analytics instead of micro level analysis that frustrates me.
  22. chpettit19
    27 triples in 2023?! Dang, that's got to be a record. Just teasing, pretty clearly mean doubles there.
  23. chpettit19
    I don't get the same read on things. I think having only 2 for sure lefties on the team means we're going to see even more platooning of those guys. If they carry 3 (Julien most likely) they'll still have a righty (or switch hitter) to pair with each and every one of them for every AB. Now if/when Emma pushes his way into the lineup, and the other 3 are all still healthy and playing, then Rocco won't be able to platoon them all. But I'll believe Rocco isn't going to platoon and pinch hit the lineup to death when I see it. Bader doesn't have to be great against lefties, just perceived to be better than Larnach or Wallner against them. In this interview, at the 28:03 mark, Rocco is asked about lefty/righty matchups in pinch hitting situations. You guys can all listen and draw your own conclusions, but I'm not hearing a manager who's planning to change his approach drastically. I'll believe he's backed off the platooning and pinch hitting in a meaningful way when I see it.
  24. chpettit19
    I love me some Payton Eeles. I was hoping they'd call him up last September while they played lifeless baseball and watched their season crumble as he lit the world on fire as the ultimate sparkplug in St Paul. Not surprised they didn't, but I wish they would've seen if he could breathe some life into the squad. I don't know if he's going to be a legit MLB player. His performance in AAA certainly suggests he will (or at least should) get a chance at some point. I'm excited to see what he does in spring and if he can start pushing for some playing time. It's likely 2B and LF as the only options for him with his bat profiling much better at 2B. But the Twins need a 2B so let's throw his name in the ring and let the play on the field dictate who gets MLB reps. I like his chances to put up a heck of a fight.
  25. chpettit19
    On a human note, I love the videos of guys hearing their names called or getting the phone call they're being drafted. I watched the draft and remember watching him and his parents as his name was called. Special moment for them all. That clip doesn't show his interview with the MLB Network people after, but he sounds like a great kid with his head on straight. That stuff probably (certainly) biases me a little, but I like the pick. He may not be a star in the making, but I think you'll get everything he's got and that's all I think we can ask from these kids. Put in the work and give yourself the best shot you have at becoming a big leaguer.
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