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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Cease would be a nice add, but giving up anything of real value for 1 year of Cease with all the question marks on this offense is not something I'd be interested in at all. Seattle showed last year that being able to pitch really well isn't an automatic ticket to the postseason if your offense can't score. No way I'd trade 6 years of Festa for 1 year of Cease.
  2. chpettit19
    Zoll, Falvey, and Rocco have all given indications that they're still hunting hard on the trade market. There's reports out today from Dan Hayes about a trade with the Padres that'd include Vazquez (and a bunch of money) shipping out with Dylan Cease a possibility coming back this way. Other pieces included, I'd assume. They say nothing is imminent at all, but there's been continued talks and both sides plan to keep talking. Obviously nothing is for sure that they make any more moves, but it does sound like they're looking. For what that's worth. Lewis has the stronger arm so him at 3B and Lee at 2B would make sense to me. Lee has a lot of proving to do still, though. Royce sounds like he's pretty comfortable in all the spots now after putting in more work over the offseason. Hopefully that's the case and they're able to fit the pieces in as best they can with everyone being comfortable in their spots.
  3. chpettit19
    Lewis, and his agent, have been pretty clear he has no desire or willingness to play the outfield. He says he's open to playing anywhere on the dirt. He's not going to LF. Even though I like the idea, he's been pretty clear he isn't willing to do it.
  4. chpettit19
    01/22/25 - Inside Twins featuring Rocco Baldelli | Inside Twins... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM Inside Twins returns with Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli. Inside Twins airs every Wednesday until Spring Training. Tune In for news, stories and we'll... Go to the 12:40 point in this interview from yesterday. If that's not a reasonable answer to you I don't know what to tell you. If the Twins bring in a 3B Royce will play 2B. If they don't he's their 3B with the potential to pop over to 2B here and there like he's been working on all offseason. You not being aware of Rocco's comments doesn't make him "quiet and unsure." He's been pretty open about the plan with Lewis. But how the roster is constructed effects who plays where. If they bring in a 1B then Miranda is going to get some time at 3B with Royce at 2B because that's the obvious alignment. If they bring in a new LFer who fields really well Larnach is going to the DH spot because that's the obvious alignment. If they bring in a 2B then Royce will be a 3B because that's the obvious alignment. The roster isn't set so Rocco isn't giving definitive answers because he doesn't know what his options are yet.
  5. chpettit19
    And, luckily for the Twins, MLB instituted a designated hitter position in the AL in 1973 so the Twins were able to squeeze all 3 guys into the lineup if they wanted to. You know, when Wallner wasn't demoted or Kepler or Larnach weren't hurt.
  6. chpettit19
    I don't think they expected .275 and 20, I think they expected him to be average, though. There's downside risk with every player, but if the Twins had known he'd OPS+ 60 for them for the entire contract they never would've brought him in. They would've offered him 1 year, 3-5 mil and said "take it or leave it." Everyone knew the contract was an overpay from the beginning, but nobody expected this. He's ok behind the plate and a liability with the bat. He's not a star defender, he's just a solid one. Sure, maybe he has a season where he does a drastic turn around at the plate in his mid-30s, but it isn't likely. There's really not much the Twins can do at this point. Nobody is taking that deal and with all the money they'd have to eat to trade him they couldn't afford much in terms of an upgrade. I think Elias Diaz is an upgrade and they could get him for that 3-5 mil they should've paid Vazquez, but he's not a significant upgrade and I don't expect them to make that swap. At this point all they can do is hope Vazquez doesn't get worse. Behind or at the plate. If everyone else stays healthy and does their job he's not going to kill the team, but he isn't helping it either.
  7. chpettit19
    Dubon is not a plus at the plate. He's never had an OPS+ over 100, with 2020 being the only "season" he even reached 100. Since then he's gone 76, 61, 97, 88. Trading Larnach for a poor man's Willi Castro doesn't seem like a good trade. Jake Meyers is also a below average bat who isn't especially good against lefties. He would improve the defense compared to what Margot did, but trading Larnach for a platoon righty feels like a bad strategy considering 75% of pitchers are right handed. Confused why you would suggest these 2 bats and then follow it up with the Braves being hard to match with because all their bats would be a downgrade. Dubon and Meyers are both massive downgrades with the bat. Nick Allen is not an MLB quality player. He's a worse hitter than Vazquez. White had a nice 35 games last year, but in his 4 tastes before that hasn't shown to be an MLB quality player either. It's why 2 other playoff teams didn't give him any meaningful run in 5 years. As for trading Larnach in general, if it upgrades the team by all means move him. But there's no reason to trade him just because he hits left handed. This is the problem with the Twins overuse of the platoon. You're suggesting making the team worse simply because they have 2 guys who both can hit but stand in the "wrong" batters box. Even though 75% of the pitchers in baseball are right handed. Nonsense.
  8. chpettit19
    Vazquez has the 5th highest AAV for a catcher in baseball. He's not paid 10 mil for his defense, he's paid 10 mil because they thought he could hit at an at least league average level. Defense only catchers don't get paid 10 mil. They get half that at most. In 2019 he actually did hit .275 with 20 HRs. He hit .274 in 2022 before the Twins signed him. The Twins did not pay him 10 mil expecting him to hit an empty .220. Not at all. I don't know where people get the idea that defense only catchers are expensive. They aren't. You can get them for 4 mil or less. Nobody pays 10 mil for a defense only catcher on purpose. Nobody.
  9. chpettit19
    Totally agree. And I don't think his defense comes anywhere close to making up for being a complete black hole in the lineup. I'm not at all a Vazquez defender.
  10. chpettit19
    I don't like either WAR when it comes to catchers. I'm not arguing that Vazquez is good or that losing him would hurt the Twins. I've been wanting them to replace him for 2 years. Just pointing out that there is WAR that likes him. I don't find WAR to be that valuable for catchers at all because we don't have an effective way to measure their defensive value.
  11. chpettit19
    Totally agree. Nearly every defensive stat these days still has yearly variation. Very few are "sticky" stats. If a catcher's intangibles aren't leading to better results on the field, what good are they? Not to mention CERA isn't the only stat in that line that Jeffers beat him at. He beat him at basically everything. Both years. The Twins pitchers have performed better with Jeffers behind the plate for 2 straight years in nearly a 50/50 split of catching starts. They have better K/W ratios, BA, OBP, and SLG (except the first year when hitters slugged slightly better with Jeffers behind the plate).
  12. chpettit19
    To be fair, his fWAR was positive both years.
  13. chpettit19
    Cal Ripken Jr is a minority owner of the Orioles. I think it's kind of fun, but nothing all that impactful. Gets the fans excited right away, which the Twins very much need, so I can see the appeal. As long as their stance on things is the same as Cal's in that they're just a sounding board for the FO if the FO wants it.
  14. chpettit19
    I don't know if it's the "most pivotal point in Twins history," but it's certainly a very big moment. Any ownership change is. It's also a pivot point for the Twins roster. Decisions need to be made on the direction of this team. I doubt the new ownership comes in and clears house. If it's the Ishbia brothers, then their recent history with the Suns would show that they don't fire people at the jump just to get "their own people" in there. They likely don't have "their own people." But maybe their partial ownership of the White Sox has given them relationships throughout the league and they have someone in mind. I'd doubt it, though. If they do come in and fire everyone straight away I'm going to be pretty worried as the smarter thing is to take the season to assess the organization you just acquired instead of just moving on from vital pieces without an inside look at things. Get to know your new team and the league and make an educated decision on Falvey and his team and how they fit into your vision. I'd expect Falvey to be replaced at the top of the business side pretty quickly, but not the baseball side. On the field the Twins have been in a bit of a holding pattern on a number of players for a few years now. Decisions need to be made. Maybe by the trade deadline. Is Larnach part of your future? What's your catching plan? Is Miranda part of the future? Wallner? Julien? Are Ryan, Ober, and Lopez all going to play out their contracts here or is it better to cash out on one of them as they approach free agency? Can you afford Correa with whatever budget you're going to set? Is Lewis worthy of a cornerstone spot or is he Buxton 2.0 who'll always need a "backup" to fill-in for half the season? Each of these questions (and more I didn't list) have impact on other decisions outside of the direct question. So, I fully agree that it's a very important point in Twins history. And it'd be ideal if new owners can be in place early in the season to start their assessment and future planning. Exciting times off the field for the Twins and hopefully the team can make it fun on the field, too.
  15. chpettit19
    I'll say that the new distribution situation may be a wild card that shakes things up. Manfred has says he wants to get as many teams as possible under the MLB umbrella like the Twins now are. But the large market teams are never going to do that if they don't have to. And the league shouldn't want them to unless they can replace the massive revenues those teams drive with their media deals. If the league can't find a way to replace the 50ish mil the Twins used to bring in from TV and they're instead happy to bring in 5 mil the smaller market teams may actually come together and try to force some change as their pocketbooks would start taking a hit at that point. And that'll actually get their attention. Even though it should've years ago when anyone paying attention saw this coming. Sometimes the uber rich get too much credit for their intelligence. Making loads of money in one business doesn't automatically make you good at owning a team or good at making money in a different business field.
  16. chpettit19
    There are a lot of rules on who pays what and who gets what from revenue sharing. The As have their own set of rules even. It's actually lead to them spending some this offseason so they can hit their needed numbers to receive their chunk of revenue sharing. But then there's also loose enough language that some teams just pocket their revenue sharing, or at least aren't spending it on the MLB roster. The problem, in my eyes, is the different goals of ownerships. The Yankees want to win, but not like they did under George. They're a good example of new generations of ownership changing things. I feel pretty strongly that George wouldn't have lost out on both Shohei and Soto in back to back offseasons. Budgets would've been tossed out the window and he would've signed one of them. Hal isn't the super fan his dad was (this is all my outside opinion, obviously). He cares more about balancing budgets and the numbers. George just wanted to win. The Dodgers want to win. They hired a top 3 FO exec from a small market team to improve their processes and then threw crazy money behind Friedman that the Rays never could. I think every owner wants to win, but some just want to win because they know more fans show up then and they make more money. Others (Cohen or the late Peter Siedler, for example) want to win because they want to win. Mike Ilitch is a bit like Siedler in that they threw budgets out the window when they were running out of time and wanted to see a championship before they passed. So, in my opinion, many of the owners don't care that the Dodgers are doing what they're doing. They still get their checks. And the more the Dodgers spend the more they have to pay the other teams. The concern many of us have had for a while is the shortsightedness of this. I don't know if Manfred sees things clearer and simply can't convince owners and the PA of the problems or if he's just happy collecting his checks, too. The MLBPA also doesn't care. They weirdly (to me) keep voting for CBAs that pay a select few crazy amounts of money while the vast majority of them get left behind, or even pushed out earlier because the star contracts force teams to go to league minimum guys more and more which pushes out the mid-level vets. That was a whole lot of typing when really it's a very simple situation: The fans don't have a voice in the room and both the MLBPA and the owners just want as much money as they can get right now. Future be damned.
  17. chpettit19
    And his bWAR has been below 0 in both of his seasons with the Twins. And was below 0 in his short stint with the Astros the season before when his bat completely disappeared for them. If he were a "full-time" catcher his bWAR would likely be even lower and put him alongside a bunch of guys who signed minor league deals this offseason.
  18. chpettit19
    A trade is always a possibility. I don't think it'll happen, though. And it's because the other team could just go sign Diaz or McCann or Grandal or Gomes or Maile. I think the Twins would have to eat more than $5 million to move him. Because a team could sign Diaz or Grandal to be their defense only catcher for less than 5 mil. Why would they want to pay Vazquez 5? Unless the Twins are attaching a prospect to him, and I think that's an even worse idea. His salary is so outsized with comparison to his abilities. Just like I'm sure the Tigers would love to move Javier Baez. Unfortunately for them, his contract is even bigger and longer. But he can't hit anymore and at some point defense just isn't enough to make up for it. Luckily the Twins only have 1 more year on this Vazquez deal.
  19. chpettit19
    Even worse if/when it's below replacement level performance.
  20. chpettit19
    I agree with much of this, but Rose has some off the field things that would be enough to keep him off my ballet. Especially when you add it to the betting. Some of the things that came out about him, or he was alleged to have done, back in the 70s were truly horrendous. He acknowledged some of it while denying the illegal parts. It's why he got fired from Fox Sports and why the Phillies wouldn't honor him. Amazing hitter, not so amazing of a person.
  21. chpettit19
    Vazquez isn't really a major league hitter so what's the difference between him and Leon or Rivera types? $10 million is the answer. I don't think they'll trade Vazquez because they wouldn't really save meaningful money. It'd just be making a move to make a move and you may as well keep the guy you know at that point. But replacing Vazquez is incredibly easy. As you said, there's always veteran defense only catchers available. Elias Diaz is the one I'd sign if you could save money by moving Vazquez and signing him.
  22. chpettit19
    I left SWR out because you didn't claim he'd have an innings limit so I didn't question that. And I agree with Paddack so I didn't question that. And your statement about Festa and Zebby's usage was about them being the next 2 most used pitchers in 2024. Or at least that's how it reads. "The top 2 replacements by 2024 usage." Then you just said they'd have in game and season caps. Sorry if I misunderstood that. Starters don't go deep in games anymore. The question of covering a lot of innings with the pen is an MLB question as a whole. So, sure, it's a question, but its a question nearly every team in baseball has been answering for years. Only 61 guys threw even 160 innings last year. That's an average of 2 per team at just 160 innings. Averaging 5 innings a start for 30 starts gets you to 150 innings. 32 starts is a normal 5 man rotation and thats your 160 innings right there. Welcome to baseball in the 2020s. This is just what starting rotations are right now.
  23. chpettit19
    Joe Ryan threw 135 innings last year. Festa had 124.2. And Zebby pitched 134,2. None of them should have inning restrictions next year. There were only 61 pitchers in all the major leagues last year who threw at least 160 innings. They should all be able to add 30+ innings to their workload without any issue. And at that point they're all throwing a regular MLB starter's workload. There's no reason at all to put artificial caps on their innings. Zebby or Festa not being good enough to throw deeper into games or earn more MLB starts is far different than having an inning cap. They'll all be allowed to go as far as their talent takes them. The only inning caps they'll have will be determined by how well they pitch. The Twins aren't going to manage any of them based on the number of innings they're throwing, just how well they're throwing. They will all be allowed to throw a full starter's workload of 160 innings if they pitch well enough to do it.
  24. chpettit19
    FYI for everyone, teams are required to put deferred payment money in escrow. Although, they don't have to start setting it aside until the 2nd year of the deal. So the Dodgers aren't risking future season payrolls on the current roster. That money will all already be sitting there ready to be paid out as required by the player's contract. In fact, there's a couple different investment account options the teams can put the money in so the Dodgers are likely going to be making money on all these deferments before they have to pay out. It's been a while since I read the CBA so I don't remember all the details, but the money has to be set aside so they're not going to get 10 years down the road and have to be diving into their 2035 revenue to pay Shohei his 68 mil. It'll be gift wrapped and waiting for him when he gets there.
  25. chpettit19
    Why would Ryan be under an inning cap? Also, why would Festa or Matthews have inning caps?
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