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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Margot was a trade last year. Kyle Farmer was a trade the year before. MAT was a trade. Trades have been a part of this strategy for years. They both sign and trade for these floor setting kinds of players.
  2. chpettit19
    They had to lose another player (Helman, Henriquez, or Headrick) to make this "light a fire" move. MLB teams don't give 40-man spots away easily. Certainly shouldn't be waiving guys to "light a fire" under guys as camp starts. If Miranda or Julien weren't going to be busting their butts in camp already the team should know that by now and have moved on from them.
  3. chpettit19
    Read the next sentence after the "you get one down year with me" sentence and see if you want to stick with that Royce statement. The part about back to back years being the trigger for me no longer trusting a player is pretty key there. I don't trust Royce to stay healthy because he's done it in more than back to back years. He's had 1 "down year" in terms of his numbers. So my hopes for Royce will remain the same as they were before his 1 down year. He struggles this year, and then, as I pretty clearly said, I will no longer think his odds of being great are high. Miranda still being on the roster doesn't make France not a floor move. That isn't how it works. France has his own odds of raising the ceiling. Miranda being there or not doesn't change that. As I said in an earlier post, it's possible France is good. Maybe he goes Profar on it and is a star. But the odds aren't high. The odds are what makes any move a floor or ceiling move. Adding France isn't suddenly a ceiling move because Miranda is still there. Adding Freddie Freeman would be a ceiling move even though Miranda is still there. Because they're separate odds. The floor you're more describing is simply keeping the team the same vs changing it. Changing the team doesn't automatically mean you're not just further securing the floor without adding to the ceiling. The odds are that this move just further secures the floor while not raising the ceiling one inch. Who really cares about the Twins doing what any of us want? We're a bunch of strangers on the internet debating sports.
  4. chpettit19
    He hasn't been his best in 3 years. Sorry, you get 1 down year with me. You do it back to back years and the odds of you being that "high upside" player again, especially as you get into your 30s, are not high anymore. Like I said in the part you deleted, he may be good. But it's about the odds. The odds of Miranda putting up a 115ish OPS+ are higher than the odds France does. I don't know how you can disagree with that. And neither is a good defender so it's not like he's a Santana type glove first guy. It's all about their bats. And Miranda has the better chances of being a good hitter.
  5. chpettit19
    Giving him 25% of the plate appearances to try to hit like he did for the first 4 months of last year (all of which were better than France, and the 5th month was barely worse than France) is the complaint. Well, part of the complaint. The other part of the complaint is that the bar they're trying to clear is "be better than an injured and falling apart Miranda." Replacing a player you're worried may be bad with a player you know is bad is a weird strategy to support.
  6. chpettit19
    Turning Jose Miranda into a short side platoon bat so you can play Ty France would be quite the choice.
  7. chpettit19
    I really liked France 2 years ago. If I remember correctly, I even advocated for getting him last year with the thought that 2023 was a down year and he'd bounce back. He didn't bounce back. He got worse. Even with playing 52 games in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Maybe he bounces back. Maybe Bader bounces back. Maybe they both pull Santana's and have shockingly effective looking seasons. It's entirely possible. But the chances aren't high. This is another "floor" move. I'm so sick of the floor move. I don't know when Falvey got the green light for more spending. It very well could've been a week ago. But this has been nearly as disappointing of an offseason as last year. They continue with their multiple questionable "vets for good money on 1 year deals" trend. I think every reasonable person on these boards understand that the young guys may fail. They may all fail miserably. But they may not. The odds of them being good are significantly higher than vets who have proved they aren't. As I said in paragraph 1, it's completely possible these guys surprise and are good. But team building is all about the odds. You're trying to predict the future. What percent chance do we have of X happening is the question. The Twins seem to be hyper focused on raising the percent chance that the floor doesn't fall out from under them even if it costs them on the chances of reaching the ceiling of "true contender." Is it because of the 2022 and 2024 collapses? I don't know. Reasonable guess. But I'm sick of it. I want to raise to percent chance of raising the ceiling even if it means risking the floor crumbling. Planning to not be worse than "ok" leads to your best chances being that you're "ok." I'm so sick of "ok."
  8. chpettit19
    Have the Twins announced that he's here for 1B? He said he was willing to catch this year. Are we sure he's not the Vazquez replacement? This is sarcasm, don't freak out. He really did say he was willing to catch this year, though.
  9. chpettit19
    I'm not a Julien believer. Don't think his swing will allow him to hit breaking balls well enough and they'll just keep throwing him more and more. But I do believe in Miranda. I think he can hit. I question his ability to stay healthy, but what else is new with this roster? I don't think 1B would be the best use at all of Keaschall's athleticism, but I think he'll be ready to debut at some point this year and am happy with him as the insurance for a major Miranda injury. If they could get Mountcastle or Diaz for cheap in trade I'd be good with that, but there isn't a single free agent worthy of blocking Miranda, in my opinion.
  10. chpettit19
    To me, it isn't about making the roster out of spring at all. It's just about what's best for preparing them for the future. I lean towards getting experience with the big club to see how they all go about their work and helping build his routines. But the idea that he'll get more time with coaches to focus on skills is a reasonable enough thought on sending him straight to minor league camp.
  11. chpettit19
    That's a reasonable enough guess at why he wasn't invited. Not sure it's what I'd do, but reasonable enough stance. Hopefully he's just on the 40-man next year after he gets a September call-up, and we don't have to ever think about this again!
  12. chpettit19
    Good call. Was so focused on Jenkins I didn't look for Eeles.
  13. chpettit19
    Rizzo is done. His career is over. Had a great career. It's done now, though. If you don't think Miranda is worth ABs over Rizzo you should be shopping him to see if anybody values him at all. Yes, I know defense matters, but nowhere near enough to accept how awful he is at hitting now. Turner isn't a great defender at 1B so you're not getting more than Miranda provides. Which means it comes down to who you think can hit better between them. One could make a reasonable argument for either one. But I'll take the guy in his age 27 season over the guy in his age 40.
  14. chpettit19
    No Walker Jenkins confuses me. I wonder what their reasoning is to not get him as much exposure as possible to big league players and their routines. I assume we'll see him in some spring games with the big boys, but why wouldn't they want to give him a few weeks with Carlos, Byron, and the boys to learn from them?
  15. chpettit19
    I think this is actually evidence in how their macro focus is wrong. It's not about individual players; it's about generalizations with them. Santana can stand in the left-handed batter's box so he's golden (obviously, his defense also played a role in him getting ABs). Wallner can't stand (well doesn't, I suppose he could it just wouldn't be pretty) in the right-handed batter's box so he's cut off. Wallner's performance against lefties in the minors doesn't earn him any extra leeway in the majors because of the box he stands in, not because of his performance. Willi has been bad against lefties in both of his years with the Twins, but he can stand in the other box so he gets to be bad (again, defense plays a role here). That's my, and I believe other's, complaint. Platooning makes sense and should be done. But Wallner putting up .900+ OPS numbers against lefties in the high minors should get him a chance to hit lefties on a regular basis (sit him against Skubal and Snell types, sure), but it doesn't. Not because of him and his performance, but simply because he's left-handed. It's frustratingly rigid based on the L/R/B next to their names on the lineup card. Platooning makes sense and should be used. Every team uses it. It's the rigidness based on macro level analytics instead of micro level analysis that frustrates me.
  16. chpettit19
    27 triples in 2023?! Dang, that's got to be a record. Just teasing, pretty clearly mean doubles there.
  17. chpettit19
    I don't get the same read on things. I think having only 2 for sure lefties on the team means we're going to see even more platooning of those guys. If they carry 3 (Julien most likely) they'll still have a righty (or switch hitter) to pair with each and every one of them for every AB. Now if/when Emma pushes his way into the lineup, and the other 3 are all still healthy and playing, then Rocco won't be able to platoon them all. But I'll believe Rocco isn't going to platoon and pinch hit the lineup to death when I see it. Bader doesn't have to be great against lefties, just perceived to be better than Larnach or Wallner against them. In this interview, at the 28:03 mark, Rocco is asked about lefty/righty matchups in pinch hitting situations. You guys can all listen and draw your own conclusions, but I'm not hearing a manager who's planning to change his approach drastically. I'll believe he's backed off the platooning and pinch hitting in a meaningful way when I see it.
  18. chpettit19
    I love me some Payton Eeles. I was hoping they'd call him up last September while they played lifeless baseball and watched their season crumble as he lit the world on fire as the ultimate sparkplug in St Paul. Not surprised they didn't, but I wish they would've seen if he could breathe some life into the squad. I don't know if he's going to be a legit MLB player. His performance in AAA certainly suggests he will (or at least should) get a chance at some point. I'm excited to see what he does in spring and if he can start pushing for some playing time. It's likely 2B and LF as the only options for him with his bat profiling much better at 2B. But the Twins need a 2B so let's throw his name in the ring and let the play on the field dictate who gets MLB reps. I like his chances to put up a heck of a fight.
  19. chpettit19
    On a human note, I love the videos of guys hearing their names called or getting the phone call they're being drafted. I watched the draft and remember watching him and his parents as his name was called. Special moment for them all. That clip doesn't show his interview with the MLB Network people after, but he sounds like a great kid with his head on straight. That stuff probably (certainly) biases me a little, but I like the pick. He may not be a star in the making, but I think you'll get everything he's got and that's all I think we can ask from these kids. Put in the work and give yourself the best shot you have at becoming a big leaguer.
  20. chpettit19
    I certainly don't mean turning point as in "he's completely doomed if he fails this year," but if he can't find his footing this season do we want them saving a spot for him in 2026? I've always been on the low end for what I see in Lee, but if he's going to be the star, or close to star, many people hope or expect him to be I think he very much needs to claim a spot with both hands and not let go this year. He can start in AAA and still accomplish that goal, but if he's still a question mark after this year his chances of being a fixture in the infield go way down. And I agree the Twins themselves may force that question mark and you know I'll huff and puff and annoy other posters with my endless rants about it. I just think this is an important year for Lee to push that 2B platoon out of the way. Even if the Twins make it harder than they need to on him.
  21. chpettit19
    I agree. I think he's at the turning point. He needs to show he can play at this level. Doesn't have to be a star from the jump this season, but he needs to play well enough to keep these kinds of signings far from the Twins minds. Them even considering these things is a rough look for Lee. Hopefully this kind of signing would be a minor league deal as Lee insurance, but even that feeling necessary is not great. It may be that they trust his skill but not his health, but, especially with this team, that's still bad.
  22. chpettit19
    Go look at Wallner's splits against lefties in the minors. Especially the upper minors. His OPS starts with a 9. Then go look at Gunnar's splits against them in the upper minors. His OPS starts with a 6. You have them backwards. Gunnar didn't prove he could hit them in the minors and then he was terrible in his first major league season against them (.448 OPS) while not being shielded from them because "it's what's best for him and the team." Then he got a little better in his 2nd MLB season while still not being shielded from them at all and putting up a .618 OPS against them. Then his 3rd season while still not being shielded from them at all he put up the .829 OPS against them. A number he never approached in the minors. That's our point. You have Gunnar and Wallner backwards. One proved it in the minors and then got shut down in the majors while the other didn't prove it in the minors but was given the chance to learn in the majors. Gunnar went from a .448 to an .829 OPS against lefties. So how much better can Wallner get from his .510? I'll say about 300 points if they actually just let him learn. But instead this article suggests we have to trade one of our 2 left-handed hitters to bring in a washed up vet as a backup in fielder. You're proving our point about the nonsense of this strategy.
  23. chpettit19
    You're welcome to participate in whichever conversations you want. Don't have to participate in ours. You are welcome to have a "zoomed in" conversation if that's what you'd like to participate in. I'm quite positive people will participate. The article brought up the left-handed hitters and the effect these potential signings would have on them. We responded to the suggestions brought up by the article. The article "zoomed out" and we responded to it. That's the point of the comment sections. Respond to the article and discuss with those that also want to discuss. So, again, the article itself zoomed out and we gave our opinions on that. Participate or don't in that conversation. It's up to you. As long as you remain within the rules of TD nobody is going to tell you how zoomed in you have to be with your comments just like nobody else is forced to be as zoomed out as some of us prefer to be as long as we all stay on the topics of the article. And we did. And many posters seemed to have found the comments worthwhile. I appreciate your feedback and I hope you take mine in the same way as it's given with no hard feelings at all.
  24. chpettit19
    I do think the Twins are the 2nd most improved team in the division to this point of the offseason. KC and Cleveland subtracted to add and I'm not sold that they added more than they subtracted (I'm not huge on WAR but I agree with the general numbers provided). Detroit did all their subtracting at the deadline last year. They subtracted all their average at best vets (and Flaherty, to be fair). Torres is a real player. Not star, but better than Bader or Coulombe. So, him alone gives the Tigers the best offseason, but they also added Flaherty back on top of that. And if they add Bregman as they're reported to be trying to do they'll be the clear favorite in the division even though they have some real question marks on their roster like the rest of the division. I didn't expect KC and Detroit to beat the Twins last year, but my prediction now is the same as it was then, the Central is anyone's (not Chicago) to be won. It's not the pushover division it was the last handful of years. It's also not full of juggernauts. All of these teams have real questions in multiple spots on their rosters. But Detroit is the only team making real additions and not making subtractions. The Twins aren't subtracting, but they're not making real additions while KC and Cleveland made real additions but also subtracted. Detroit is the clear winner of the offseason as of 4:30 central time on 2/6. But winning the offseason doesn't mean you'll win the season. It's wide open for any of the 4 to win. I won't be surprised by any order those 4 teams end up in. Unless one of them ends up below Chicago. That would surprise me.
  25. chpettit19
    Because the article mentions trading a left-handed hitting outfielder so Castro can go to the outfield as part of bringing in one of these players. Because every roster spot is connected and impacts the entirety of the roster. So, we were discussing our thoughts on the Twins forcing themselves into these types of players because of their complete refusal to give their left-handed hitters a chance to hit left-handed pitching. It's all connected and some of us enjoy bigger picture conversations instead of just discussing the individual players named because we believe the entire picture of the roster is what determines how the team will perform.
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