chpettit19

Your stats aren't "actual statistics" either as they don't take into account what the actual number of opportunities Wallner had to face a lefty were. Your stats are the same kind of conjecture as mine as you're assuming/projecting his percentage would/should match the team average for the year without taking into account when he was on the team and what instances he could've faced a lefty but didn't. You're using full season team stats to project what Wallner's % should have been. That's conjecture, too. Maybe a little more dialed in than mine, but conjecture nonetheless. But the point isn't about Wallner himself. It's about the Twins approach to lefty hitters, especially the ones who may be stars. It's about Wallner, Julien, Larnach, Rodriguez, Jenkins, whoever you think may be a star. That's where this all started. The article talks about Julien essentially dedicating his entire offseason hitting program to hitting lefties better to try to convince his organization to let him hit against lefties on a regular basis. The guy was one of their best hitters the year before and decided his only shot at being an everyday player was to dedicate his entire offseason to hitting lefties to try to convince his organization to give him a chance to be a star. Julien is telling us that lefties on this team don't feel like they have a legit chance to be everyday players unless they go above and beyond. That isn't the case in other organizations. I, and some others, have a problem with this.

I know people aren't going to like to hear this, but I think the trade move is coming next offseason. One of Ryan or Ober most likely, but maybe Pablo. Because of that I am good with not trading anyone this offseason. All 3 of those guys have 2 years left after this. If SWR, Festa, Matthews, anyone comes close to establishing themselves as someone who can reasonably fill a top 3 rotation spot the Twins will trade one of the vets currently fronting the rotation. With 2 years of control left any of those guys would fetch a sizeable return. I think the Twins are giving themselves 1 more year to see if they trust their system to produce another playoff caliber starter and then the trade will come.

I like the numbers, too, but ignoring the other stuff, in my opinion, misses part of the point. There is a mental aspect to things in believing you're an everyday guy and worrying about every PA and what it'll mean for your career. But back to the numbers. A player who plays 150 games in a season (a pretty good mark to measure an "everyday" player this day and age) will get between about 625 and 675 PAs depending on where in the order they hit and how good their offense is. Some may be as low as 600 others up by 700. But 625-675 is the general range. Let's call it 650 for the ease of discussion. At 650 PAs a year, 23% of your PAs would be 149.5 PAs. 18% would be 117. So now we're talking low 30s in missed PAs. Keeping with our 4.3 PAs/GM measure, that's over 7 games worth of PAs. 28% of PAs would be 182 PAs vs 17% at 110.5. Now we're talking over 70 PAs. That's 17 games worth of PAs at the 4.3 PA/GM measure. I believe those are significant numbers. It's not just about the limited PAs Wallner has gotten since he hasn't played full seasons, it's about the overall approach. The Twins have gotten extreme with their platooning the last few seasons. Shohei and Schwarber were at 249 and 248 PAs left on left last year. I already gave you that Henderson had 217. There were 12 guys over 200 (that's more than the entire Twins team). 27 over 150. The high mark for Wallner based on a full season's worth of PAs and your percentages would be 117. There were 42 guys in baseball that beat that number last year. There aren't 42 guys in baseball putting up Matt Wallner numbers. The concern is the overall approach. Will they change it for stars or are they going to limit them to 100 to 120 PAs when they could be getting 200-250? Of the 42 guys with 120 or more left on left PAs, the average wRC+ against lefties was 105. 20 of them were at or over 100. 25 at or over 90. 35 at or over 80. The league's total wRC+ left on left was 89. That's a .668 OPS. The Twins pinch hitters last year had a wRC+ of 57 and an OPS of .546. Rocco stated in an interview about a month ago that they plan to keep doing the pinch hitting/platooning stuff because they believe it was a big reason for their success in 2023. That's a solid belief based on their wRC+ of 101 and OPS of .724 pinch hitting in 2023. But in 2022 those numbers were 66 and .546. In 2021 they were 59 and .552. So, my question to you is, do those pinch hitting numbers make you believe it's the right strategy to pinch hit for all lefties as frequently as they do or do you think Wallner (who had a better left on left OPS than the Twins pinch hitters as a whole had last year) or Jenkins or Emma or Larnach or Julien or any of them should be given the chance to just be an average lefty hitter against lefty pitching which would blow our pinch hitters out of the water in 3 of the last 4 seasons? And this doesn't even get into Rocco's weird habit of stacking his lefties specifically to get a lefty into the game so he can go to his pinch hitters. Spacing them out would give Wallner, Julien, Larnach, etc. more PAs against righties as the opposing manager would have to pick his place to use his lefties. Either they are burning multiple lefties every game or the one be brings in faces 1 lefty and multiple righties just to get to another lefty. The strategy, to me, feels awfully flawed.

But he didn't get almost the same amount of PAs by percentage. 11% less is a significant number. 5% is nothing to sneeze at. And those PAs come sporadically. He never starts against them if they have a decent righty option and if the Twins have a choice and the PA is in a situation where things matter at all he's getting pulled for a pinch hitter. March and April he got 1 PA against a lefty. 33 total PAs. July he got 9 PAs out of 51 total. August was 13 out of 93. September he had 21 for 84. So, 3%, 17.6%, 13.9%, 25%. That's one month of getting real PAs against them and it came as the team was collapsing and now he's suddenly supposed to be an everyday star. Yes, there are a lot of opportunities outside the game to improve his ability. The technology today is why the idea that lefties can't hit lefties is needing to be looked at again. The Twins are extreme in their platooning. They had by far the least number of left on left PAs last year. They aren't shy about it. The manager of the team openly states he plans to continue to do it. Gunnar Henderson is always my go to here. Orioles expected him to be a star. Just like I'd think the Twins should expect Wallner to be a star with the numbers he puts up. Gunnar had nowhere near the success as Wallner did left on left in the minors. But when Gunnar got called up in 2022 they didn't platoon him even with his .448 OPS against them. And despite that awful line in 2022 he didn't get platooned in 2023 and put up a .618 OPS against them. Last year, still not platooned at all despite 2 straight seasons of less than ideal OPS numbers against lefties. OPS of .829 against lefties. In 217 PAs. That's more than the entire Twins team had left on left last year. So, your percentage numbers don't impress me. Gunnar had 167 PAs in 2023 which was only 27 fewer than the Twins entire team had last year. That is what not platooning a player looks like. I don't think there's many of us calling for the Twins to just blindly throw every lefty in there against lefties at all times. What we question is turning possible stars into platoon hitters. And that's exactly what they're doing. Max Kepler lead the Twins in left on left PAs again last year. 82. That was good for the 67 most in baseball. So, on average, every other team had 2 other hitters with more left on left PAs. It's extreme. Jackson Holliday, at 20-years-old, played 60 MLB games last year. 208 PAs. Matt Wallner, at the age of 26, played 75 games and had 261 PAs. Jackson Holliday, as a rookie with an OPS of .417 against lefties, and an overall OPS of .565, got 46 PAs left on left. 22% of his PAs if you want to go with that metric. Matt Wallner, in his 3rd big league season, with an OPS of .611 against lefties, and an overall OPS of .894, got 44 PAs left on left. As you said, 17% of his PAs. It's a clearly different approach to team management. 1 team sees potential star, everyday players and puts them in there everyday. The other sees a platoon hitter. And neither Gunnar nor Jackson put up anywhere near the numbers against lefties that Wallner did in AA and AAA. Like 200+ points of OPS difference. Now the Orioles do platoon O'Hearn. So it's not just giving every lefty a shot. It's giving possible stars the chance to be stars. The Twins are actively making it harder for Wallner and holding him back from reaching his full potential. If they thought 2023 was the real Julien, not giving him a lengthy leash to play everyday and be a possible star is holding him back from reaching his full potential. And if I'm those players I'd be pissed. If I'm Matt Wallner I'm telling them to play me everyday or find me a team that will let me take my chance of becoming a star because you're costing me millions and millions of dollars. I don't want to be Joc Pederson making 60ish mil for my career (obviously still crazy money). I want to be an everyday star who signs a 9 figure deal. If your team relies on getting the perfect matchup as often as possible to win games, your team likely isn't talented enough to truly contend. Stars win in the playoffs. Hoping to mix and match your way to a championship by platooning guys even at the top of your lineup and hoping to nail your in game pinch hitting decisions is not a strategy I'm confident can lead to a championship. You're welcome to disagree, but I can't think of many World Series titles from teams who were pinch hitting for their leadoff man in the 5th or taking their near .900 OPS hitter out in the 6th. But my memory isn't what it used to be so maybe I'm forgetting a bunch.

If you're not one of the stars, it's a great place to be because whenever you're on you get the big boys coming up for the fireworks.

The 2022 MN Twins opening day roster had Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and Alex Kirilloff on it. That's 4 lefties. You can only platoon 3. Your assumption that Kepler was getting ABs against lefties because he was succeeding is wrong. It's actually a stronger case that once they just let a lefty hit against lefties he got comfortable and succeeded. I wouldn't make that argument necessarily, but 2022 is a stronger argument that way than it is for them giving him PAs because he was succeeding. You have your order of events wrong. Trevor Larnach was added to the roster on April 13th for their 6th game of the season. Replacing Kirilloff and keeping them at 4 lefties. Then Kirilloff replaced Arraez on May 6th. Still 4. Mark Contreras replaced Larnach May 10th. Still 4. On the 12th they brought Arraez back for Jose Godoy making it 5 lefties on the roster. I'm not going to go through the whole season as I think you get the point here. 2022 wasn't about them giving Kepler a chance because he'd earned it, they had no other choice because you can only platoon 3 spots on an MLB roster and they had at least 4 lefties on the roster nearly the entire season. This year they're going to start with very likely no more than 3 depending on injuries and Julien's spring. The Twins aren't shy about their belief in platooning and pinch hitting to win platoon matchups. I don't know why you'd argue against that. Rocco is very open about it being a big part of their philosophy. Including in at least 1 interview last month where he says they're not planning to change it as they believe it was a key part to their success in 2023. It's why they have continually employed Margot, Farmer, Garlick, Luplow types. They're never going to have their lefties get 0% of the PAs, but they are very clear with their plan to not have lefties face lefties if they can help it.

Which promising bats? What mechanical changes do those podcasters claim they made? Yankees don't seem to have ruined that Judge fella. Gleyber Torres has a career OPS+ of 112 with only 1 season below 100. Volpe has been a little disappointing, I'll give you/them him. Austin Wells hasn't gone sour as he's one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. Jasson Dominguez still has plenty of hype around him as he gets a fulltime MLB gig this year. Trey Sweeney is set to be a key part of the Tigers lineup now. Spencer Jones is expected to debut this year. Who are "all those promising bats that went sour" for the Yankees? The glove first SS Peraza? Have they given up on Volpe already at the age of 23? The Yankees haven't hit on 100% of their prospects so they're "tweaking the heck out of" swings and "souring" hitters despite turning out numerous everyday MLB position players over the last handful of years? Or are we going all the way back to 2018 and bringing Gary Sanchez into this?

I understand your argument. I understand what we're debating about. I understand that we have difference of opinion on what makes a good leadoff hitter. What you're failing to understand is that all of baseball is telling you you're wrong. Unless you're arguing that Martin or Keirsey will be a top 4 or 5 hitter on the Twins team, you are going against all 30 MLB teams. Not just the Twins or teams that "go way overboard with weird analytics." All 30. 100% of major league baseball teams disagree with you. As for you explaining to me that Martin has great potential if the Twins just didn't manage him like every team has managed him since he was 19 years old, I understand that, too. I disagree. He's been a utility player since he was 19. He's going to turn 26 before this season starts. That's 7 years of utility work. Your "underlying condition" talk isn't based on reality. It's creating an excuse because you expected him to be better. I expected him to be better coming out of college, too. Just didn't happen. I provided you actual data and proof about why he isn't the hitter you want him to be. And it's because he can't hit the ball hard enough to scare pitchers. Major league pitchers don't walk hitters who's biggest threat is hitting a single. His struggles weren't because he played a position he's been playing for 7 years, it's because he can't impact the ball well enough to worry an MLB pitcher. I understand what you're trying to explain to me. I'm telling you you're wrong. And I'm bringing more than "I look at underlying conditions" as an explanation. I provided real world numbers and comparisons. Nick Madrigal is another one. But I was trying to be nice and use borderline or actual MLB stars to prove to you that even they don't walk at the rates you're claiming Martin could if he just played 2B because pitchers don't fear them. P.S. explain what the Yanks (or the Twins with Martin or any other team) did/does to "tweak the heck out of a swing." Explain the mechanics they're changing. Explain the actual coaching teams give. What adjustments did the Twins make to Martin's swing that you claim ruined him? Elbow placement? Stride? Hand placement? Swing path? What? Explain it. Don't just make broad brush stroke claims about "all or nothing approaches" or teams "tweaking the heck out of a swing." Explain it. Prove your point with actual baseball information. How do the Yanks "tweak the heck out of a swing?"

It's the driving factor in me wanting to see new leadership by next season. It's entirely possible they shift on a dime and Emma comes up as an everyday player or Wallner is suddenly an everyday player even with only 2 or 3 lefties on the roster. But I certainly don't see any reason to believe that'll be the case. The platoon thing seems to be a core value with this regime. I'm no scout, but his swing looks better to me this spring so far, so I'm far more hopeful now than I was during the offseason that he can bounce back. I don't know that I see his 2023 season as a realistic mark (as @Linus pointed out a .373 babip is awful high), but I have more belief now that he can be much better than last year. Still see some bumps coming, but fewer than I did coming off last season.

3. A team can carry 3 players that need to be platooned. You need 6 roster spots to cover those 3 lineup spots. 2 catchers for another lineup spot. And 5 other guys to cover the other 5 lineup spots. That's 13 position players.

Most, if not all, of us who advocate for playing the young guys 100% acknowledge that the young guys will have their bumps in the road. It's actually part of why we want them to get plenty of playing time. So you can make a determination between bump in the road and not good enough. What we disagree with is that playing more in AAA or AA or wherever in the minors is going to take those bumps in the road away. There are very, very few hitters who come up, are great, and stay great with no bumps. Like a really, really small number of hitters. The Twins give all their minor league lefties the chance to face lefties in the minors. They still don't let them do it in the majors. Matt Wallner had an OPS over .900 against lefties in AA and AAA. Over .900. Still gets platooned. Doesn't get a chance to show he can hit lefties in the majors because it isn't about time in AAA it's about their strict philosophy of trying to "win" every platoon matchup. Julien feeling he needed to dedicate his entire offseason to trying to prove he can hit lefties just to get a shot at hitting them in the majors is a failure on the Twins' part at the major league level, not in the amount of time spent in the minors. You can't adjust to major league pitching in AAA. There will always be an adjustment needed. Always. And it can't be made until you get to the majors and see what that adjustment is. Could've given Julien 5 more years in AAA and he'd still need to make the adjustment to the adjustment in the majors.

No, it didn't. It started in Tampa. And no team has ever said "to heck with defense." And "slow sluggers" have been drafted for the entire history of baseball. Some guy called Babe Ruth was pretty highly thought of back in the day and wasn't exactly setting the world on fire with his speed. Ted Williams stole 24 bases in his career, not exactly speed racer over there. David Ortiz. Kent Hrbek. Harmon Killebrew. And every hitter has always been tweaked. What do you think they do in the minors? That's literally what development is all about. It's the entire point of the minor leagues. Baseball isn't discovering that at all. Slugging is still king. Speed and defense have always been part of the equation, but slugging is still king. It's still what teams pay for. Yes, bunting and hit and runs have gone way down, but that's because the league realized they were bad strategies. I never said they were bad hitters, they just aren't as good as you're suggesting they are and they aren't good enough to hit at the top of a lineup for a team hoping to contend. The league hasn't "adjusted to the all or nothing approach." Your constant claims that the league can now get every "all or nothing" hitter out because they solved that mystery is so far off base. Each hitter has to be attacked in their own unique way. Each of their swings are different. Each of their ability to cover certain parts of the plate are different. You blindly assumed Julien was a dead pull hitter because he has an "all or nothing approach" and you are completely and utterly wrong. As I proved to you by showing you actual spray charts and proof. I can refute your "logical reasoning." I just did. Austin Martin has been playing CF for way longer than just last year. You don't like hearing that, but that's the truth. He's been a utility player since he was starring in college. Your "logical reasoning" is ignoring the actual realities of Austin Martin's career. I like Steven Kwan. I like Arraez. I like Yandy Diaz who isn't fast and doesn't slug a crazy high number. They're great hitters. You just want to put anyone who points out slugging into a bucket of "all you care about is slugging" and act like we don't look at anything else. It's nonsense. You're not the only one who "looks at underlying conditions" like that's some sort of crazy idea. Most of us do. We just don't agree with your assessments. I never said you said they were the top hitters on the club, I said that's what MLB teams use at the top of their order now and that's why Martin and Keirsey don't belong there. You never use stats or proof of anything because it rarely ever backs up your statements. I've given you the stats for hitters at the top of the lineup for the league. You're ignoring that and telling me "only the crazy analytical teams" follow that plan. Well, first off, EVERY team is a "crazy analytical team." They all follow this stuff. Every. Single. One. And, second, I showed you the data that proves you're wrong. Teams take their best hitters and put them at the top of the order. All of them. It's why the top 5 spots in the order for MLB have OPS's over .700 while the rest don't. It's why the most used leadoff hitters in baseball have wRC+ that average 130. It's why leadoff hitters are the 4th highest slugging lineup spot in baseball. This is how the league does it. Not just the Twins. You are wrong about it just being certain teams following the Yankees (especially because the Yankees didn't start it!). Suggesting the Twins put somebody who isn't one of the top hitters in the leadoff spot is going against baseball as a whole, not just the Twins. Provide actual stats and proof to disprove my actual stats and proof or just admit you're asking the Twins to do something nobody else in the league is doing. I'll save you the work on Kwan, he was the 2nd best hitter on the Guardians last year. Even those scrappy little guys put their best hitters at the top of their lineup. Luis Arraez is probably your best argument as he had a down year so he was the 5th best hitter amongst the Padres regulars. But he's typically a 130 wRC+ hitter. Dang, exactly the same as the best leadoff hitters in baseball. I'm not denying Keirsey hasn't been given a chance, but Martin got 93 games with the Twins last year. You also act like these 2 have torn the minors apart. They haven't. They've been above average, but neither of them were putting up Wallner, Emma, Jenkins, Eeles, Keaschall type performances. That's the truth.

Lewis spent all offseason working out at 2B. He has no problem with playing 2B. He didn't want to be moved to a new spot he'd never played in the middle of a playoff race last year and prefers to just be left at 1 position throughout the season. Him (and his agent, for that matter) have been very open about him moving to 2B if that was the best fit for the team. Just just doesn't want to be bounced around once the season starts.

Fixing his inability to hit breaking balls is absolutely the right step for him to take at this point. But it makes my skin crawl to read an article suggesting a left handed hitter in the Twins organization is simply wasting his time by even trying to learn to hit lefties better. The Twins have a couple lefties on the national radar headed to Minneapolis in a hurry. Is it also a waste for them to try to show the team they can hit lefties? They have a lefty with back to back seasons of an OPS over .875. Is it also a waste for him to try to show the team he can hit lefties? The statements and ideas in this article are the big worry for a number of us. You have 3 potential stars on cheap deals either here or soon to be here. Are you just automatically going to turn them all into platoon players? If so, trade them. Just get an all right handed lineup and get it over with. And give them a chance to go to a team that will let them reach their full potential. "But baseball is a game of roles, and part of reaching your full potential is understanding what the team needs from you, not just what you want for yourself." I couldn't disagree more with this statement. If my full potential is being an everyday player who just so happens to hit from the left side but can still mash lefties if given the chance then the team platooning me is them actively holding me back from my full potential. And I'd want out. Immediately.

Of Twins hitters with at least 200 PAs last year Martin was 9th out of 15 in BB%. That isn't because he was forced to play a position he's played since college. It's because he isn't a threat with the bat so no major league pitcher fears him. You're looking at the wrong underlying condition. Because you don't want slug to matter. Well, it does. A lot. If a pitcher's biggest fear about throwing you a strike is that you may hit a single he's going to throw you a lot of strikes. Martin's walk rate was 7.8%. Steven Kwan's (the guy you should hope Martin can become) was 9.8%. Arraez was 3.1%. Steven Kwan was 10th in all of baseball in chase rate. Meaning only 9 hitters in the entire league chased pitches less than him. He was 73rd in BB%. Simply not chasing pitches in the bigs doesn't earn you crazy amounts of walks if you're not a power threat with the bat. And Kwan actually did what the Twins tried to teach Martin and hit for pull power early in counts last year. Pitchers are smarter. The league is smarter. They will come right after you in the zone if you can't make them pay for it. Your dream of Austin Martin being a .400 OBP guy is simply not realistic. And it's not because he played CF. It's because he can't slug. As much as you hate to hear it.

You're not paying attention to the league if you're continuing to push this Martin or Keirsey narrative. I gave you the numbers. Put your best 4 hitters at the top of the order. Everybody does it. How you line them up can be according to who runs if you want. Martin and Keirsey are never going to be better hitters than Lewis, Buxton, Correa, Larnach, Wallner, or Miranda. That doesn't even include Rodriguez, Jenkins, Keaschall, Lee or a possible Julien bounce back. They're never going to be one of the team's top 4 hitters. Never. So giving them the most PAs on the team is simply a bad idea. Leadoff guys used to need to be table setters who ran. And 2 hole hitters used to be Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla slap hitters who moved runners. Then the league realized they were giving their best hitters far fewer opportunities to impact the game and they changed. You're behind the times and advocating for the Twins to actively hurt their offense. Martin and Keirsey are 9 hole type hitters setting the table for the lineup to roll over and get back to their best hitters. Weighing the first inning so aggressively to put your table setter in the 1 hole is bad strategy. And the entire league agrees. Give your best hitters the most chances. Line them up however you want in the top 4 or 5 spots, but give them as many PAs as possible. Martin and Keirsey haven't been held back from being top 4 hitters, they just aren't as good as the other players. And I like them. Want them on the team over the $4 to $11 million vets they bring in. But they aren't top 4 hitters. No matter what position they play.

Why would the Twins want a "traditional" leadoff hitter? This "crazy ideology" isn't the Twins', it's baseball's. The 10 players with the most PAs as leadoff hitters last year had an average wRC+ of 130 while hitting leadoff. Marcus Semien was the worst at 100, followed by Arraez at 108. That's a severe down year for both of them. The other 8 go 116, 123, 128, 129, 131, 136, 159, 167. Add in the Dodgers splitting their leadoff spot between Betts (153 wRC+) and Ohtani (188 OPS+) and there is plenty of data to show your desire for Martin or Keirsey to leadoff is the "crazy ideology." By OPS, leadoff hitters were the 3rd best hitters on teams last year. 3 hole hitters had an OPS of .777, 2 hole .755, leadoff .739, 4 hole .737, 5 hole .715 and everyone else below .700. Leadoff hitters had the 4th highest slug of any lineup spot. Behind 3 hole, 2 hole, 4 hole. HRs by lineup spot go in the same order. 3rd best wRC+ by lineup spot. OBP goes 3 hole .335, leadoff .327, 2 hole .326. If Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey are one of the Twins 4 best hitters this, or any, year either they have blown expectations out of the water to historic levels or the Twins offense is in real trouble.

What defines a "legitimate lead off hitter?" That's kind of the point of this article. Do you mean "classic leadoff hitter?" Because that the Twins lack, but they don't lack for "legitimate lead off hitters." The game has changed. Kyle Schwarber, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuna Jr, Shohei Ohtani, Gunnar Henderson, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Francisco Lindor. These are the leadoff hitters of today. Just flat out good hitters. The Twins have some flat out good hitters. Like Matt Wallner.

Hey hey, now we're thinking. Now we're getting into the good stuff. MLB Totals: Total PA- With Runners On- With RISP 17196-7212-4237 Per team totals 573-240-141 Percentages 42% with runners on 25% with runners in scoring position

Lineup construction is fascinating to me. It's so dependent on the team/lineup as a whole where guys hit. Slap hitting fast guys batting leadoff is mostly a thing of the past. Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Ronald Acuna Jr, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Yandy Diaz, Gunnar Henderson, Fransisco Lindor, George Springer, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Lawrence Butler. Each of those guys had at least 56 games and 265 PAs in the leadoff spot last year (except Acuna because he was hurt, but he's been a leadoff hitter for years). They're also all guys you expect to do just as much, if not more, slugging than running. Even Steven Kwan worked on adding more power to his game last year and hit more HRs that season (14) than he had his first 2 combined (11). Slugged .425 instead of the .384 he'd slugged the first 2 combined. Teams are so much more advanced in how they make out lineups now. I don't mind Wallner in the leadoff spot. I also wouldn't mind Buxton, Correa, or Lewis. Larnach against righties is fine with me. Miranda wouldn't be the end of the world. Good Julien makes sense. I'm very much against the Martin and Castro types, though. As the end of the game roles around and the lineup turns over with the game on the line I don't want those guys getting the ABs, I want the big guns getting them. Martin and Castro in the 9 hole to provide some speed in front of the big boppers? Cool. But I don't want them getting more ABs than any of the superior hitters. That's also the reason I dislike the idea of putting your platoon bats at the top. Not the end of the world, but I don't think it's the best strategy. Because when you pinch hit for them later you're not getting the full value of that pinch hitter because of the "tax" of coming in cold. Pinch hitters perform worse than their norms. I don't think a set lineup is necessary at all. Your spot in the order doesn't change your job when you get up there to hit. Know who you are as a hitter, know the situation, and perform. That's the job no matter what. Leadoff hitters taking pitches they should swing at to start a game is bad strategy. Putting yourself in a hole in the count is worse than an extra 2 or 3 pitches your guys can see from the side. Getting on base is your job, not taking pitches. If the 9 hole hitter comes up in the 6th with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd his job is the same as if he were the 4 hole hitter in the first inning with 2 outs and a guy on 2nd. Get the runner in or keep the inning going so the next guy can get them in. Get your best hitters the most PAs. Who your best hitter is will change throughout the year so knowing when to move people up and down the order is the trick. But, at its core, lineup construction is quite simple. Get the best guys you have to the plate as often as possible.

For everyone's reference, here's the number of PAs each spot in the order got in MLB as a whole in different situations last year (according to Fangraphs splits leaderboards): Total PAs-PAs with runners on-PAs with runners in scoring position 1- 22350 -7495- 4493 2- 21833 -9129- 4944 3- 21356 -9638- 5431 4- 20838 -10032- 5842 5- 20303 -8820- 5365 6- 19793 -8648- 4848 7- 19254 -8620- 4898 8- 18660 -8391- 4925 9- 18062 -7870- 4755 Everything divided by 30 to get it in more meaningful per team numbers: 1- 745- 250- 150 2- 728- 304- 165 3- 712- 321- 181 4- 695- 334- 195 5- 677- 294- 179 6- 660- 288- 162 7- 642- 287- 163 8- 622- 280- 164 9- 602- 262- 159 Percentage of PAs with runners on-with runners in scoring position: 1- 34%- 20% 2- 42%- 23% 3- 45%- 25% 4- 48%- 28% 5- 43%- 26% 6- 44%- 24% 7- 45%- 25% 8- 45%- 26% 9- 44%- 26% Make what you will of these numbers. Just wanted to give some info.

They're an interesting mix of aggressive and slow. Lee, Keaschall, Matthews, Jenkins to an extent, Emma to an extent, and Eeles (and probably more, those are just off the top of my head) have all been pushed relatively quickly through the system, in my opinion. But, and I think we agree here, the Twins slam on the breaks most of the time before debuting guys as they're far more likely to go with veterans and make rookies wait for injury openings. Sometimes multiple injuries. To me, their decisions at the major league level are based too much on their expectations for the season/"the plan" from the offseason. I don't think many people would argue that they don't like to make drastic changes to their major league roster other than to fill in for injuries. That appears to be them refusing to give up any "depth." That decision making process has a natural effect on the minors as eventually there's nowhere left to send guys. If the guys at AAA can't get to the majors then the guys at AA can't get to AAA and so on. They are more willing to drop their veteran AAA depth they like to start the year with, but eventually you fill AAA with Keirsey, Helman, Martin, etc. types that you don't want to just cut because they are solid AAA depth but you also aren't willing to move on from the Gallo, Margot, Farmer types in the majors so everything comes to a stop. And you never really get a look at those depth guys to see if they can replace your low- to mid-priced vets because you didn't cut those vets when they were terrible. And I'd argue that's the bigger problem. Sticking to "the plan" at the major league level. I'll start by saying I didn't mind the trade at all at the time, but the Mahle trade is an interesting example. What if, instead of trading Steer who was having a good year in AAA you call him up? I don't know if the Reds demanded Steer and there was no other option, but, if I recall correctly, there were a number of us wanting to see him debut. He ended up playing 23 AAA games for Cinci before debuting. And the Twins watched their season crumble because they didn't have anyone to play the OF which Steer has done. The Twins preferred to go with Kyle Garlick that season. He'd started the year in AAA then put up a .717 OPS (102 OPS+) in 66 games from April through the end of the year because they wanted him to hit against just lefties as much as possible. What if they skipped their veteran short side platoon bat and went with Steer? Steer isn't a star, but he's been a league minimum player that would've saved us from Margot last year and for sure Luplow if not Gallo in 2023. Give me the same production for the league minimum instead of 4 to 11 mil. I think this regime is more aggressive in promoting prospects through the system than the TR times. But their over reliance on "the plan" and extra trust in vets causes ripple effects.

I read the article on The Athletic and he doesn't come across as super believable. I'll wait until MLB releases their findings, but it's hard to believe he didn't do this. He seems like a young man who doesn't quite have his head on straight and is a little too head strong for his own good. What's the motivation to do this interview now? Against the advice of your agents that gets you cut from their company, too. If MLB comes out and says they couldn't prove anything so he's allowed to sign with any team, how does it look to the teams when it comes to trusting his judgement? And the article mentions him getting into arguments with the Twins development coaches before the day in question as well. This is now all out there hurting his reputation more. He's too prideful or immature or head strong or whatever it is and has dug himself a deeper hole with this.

I didn't say it'd hurt, but starting in AAA isn't going to hurt him either. Diego Cartaya? The guy who got promoted to AAA? Kala'i Rosario? The guy likely to get promoted to AAA awfully quick this year? Jeferson Morales? The guy who got promoted to AAA? 2 of the 3 guys you listed got promoted to AAA already. I'm really confused by your point. He was better than multiple other players who've already been promoted but his performance isn't good enough to be promoted? It's not the end of the world if he starts the year at AA, but it's also not unrealistic to say he should be in AAA if not the majors. Here's my 3 names: Michael Harris II, Jackson Merrill, Zach Neto. Harris: OPS of .878 in 43 games/196 PAs in AA before going directly to the majors while skipping AAA completely. Merrill: OPS of .782 in 46 games/211 PAs in AA before skipping AAA and debuting at a position he'd never played in his life on opening day for a team dead set on taking down the Dodgers for a division crown and making a World Series run. At the age of 20. Neto: OPS of .874 in 30 games/136 PAs in his drafted year in AA. 7 games/34 PAs in AA with an OPS of 1.374 in his next year. Total of 37 games/170 PAs and an OPS of .968 before playing 4 games and getting 16 PAs in AAA and debuting on April 15th of the year after he was drafted. 100ish pts higher on his OPS in AA but lower OPS than Emma. No, I don't believe in promoting everyone who's OPS'd >.800 in AA automatically, but I watched a lot of Keaschall last year and he's better than that level. Just like Harris, Merrill, and Neto were. Teams don't base their promotions on just looking at the stat line until it hits a certain number. And they don't make their top prospects go station to station half year to a year at a time through the system. The other poster suggested Luke spending half the year in AA then moving up and eventually getting a cup of coffee in the bigs. That may be how it goes, but then he's not as good as we hoped. Or the Twins are holding him back. Big time prospects skip, or essentially skip, levels all the time. They don't need massive OPS numbers and 100 games played at each level.

Jose Miranda played 2145.1 innings at 3B in the minors. 1395 at 2B. 284 at SS. Only 251.1 of those innings came after he debuted. There's no reason at all to think him being handed the 3B job in 2023 after having played 34 games and 246.2 innings at 3B in the majors in 2022 has caused his injury problems. You can't just move everyone who gets hurt to 1B. And not playing 1B doesn't cause injuries.