chpettit19

Which righties do you think Rocco is going to sit to let either of his lefties hit against lefties? Even if Julien makes the team, too. Which righty is going to sit against lefties in order to get any of those lefties PAs against lefties?

They tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 to avoid this all together but couldn't come to an agreement. It'll be interesting to see how things work out with him in a month, but I'd say the odds are better that Philly demands a high price for him and he's returned to them over there being a deal worked out.

As for Martin becoming a defensive "star," I don't see it. He just doesn't read the ball well. More reps can certainly improve that, but, as others have pointed out, he's had a lot of experience in the outfield over his college and minor league career. He can certainly still improve, but to expect him to reach "star" status is a bridge (way) too far for me. I hope he improves and can be about an average fielder which would give him a solid chance of having a nice career as a (likely journeyman) utility player. But getting beyond average is a monumental ask. I'm not as against the moving around of players defensively as some here, but I do blame the Twins for him having to improve more now in the outfield if they're truly just moving him there more or less full time. They spent way too long running him out at SS when he had no shot of ever sticking there. Should've moved him to CF as soon as they got him and let him build his experience there. Wasting all those innings at SS was a massive mistake that I'd love to hear the real thought process behind.

Not to mention that there were 4 hitters with at least 200 PAs in all of baseball with an OBP of .400 last year. They're names I think people will recognize. Judge, Soto, Tucker, and Yelich. There were only 18 players in all of baseball with at least 200 PAs and an OBP of .375 or higher. Only 46 guys at .350 or higher. That's 1.5 guys per team with just a .350 OBP. All but 2 (an injured Acuna Jr and Mike Tauchman) had a slug of at least .380. Martin slugged .363 in the minors. No MLB pitcher fears him and his ability to draw walks against guys with actual control and no fear of him is going to be insanely limited. He had 21 games in the AFL where he managed to OPS .800 and 28 games in AAA last year where he got to that number. Otherwise he's never had an OPS of .800 in the minors. I loved Martin coming out of college and was thrilled when they got him in the Berrios trade. But he's never learned to impact the ball enough to be a threat. He's not getting anywhere near a .400 OBP or .800 OPS. That's suggesting he'll be a better hitter in the majors than he's ever been in the minors. Not a lot of examples of guys doing that out there.

Julien has flaws, but being a pull hitter isn't one of them. He went the other way at an above average rate both years. His super steep VBA forces him to. This is not the spray chart of a guy just trying to pull fastballs.

90th percentile exit velocity isn't saying he's in the 90th percentile, it's the 90th percentile for his personal exit velos.

Take his VBA (vertical bat angle) from 45-50 to 30-35 and he'll be alright. Easier said than done, but many in the industry believe the Orioles concentrate pretty hard on VBA and being able to adjust your swing to pitch locations so hopefully Mr. Borgschulte can help Julien with that and get him back closer to what he was in 2023.

I'm obviously excited to see what the big 3 bats can do and if they can all debut this year, and I love Payton Eeles, but Brandon Winokur is the bat I'm most excited to follow this season. He has the chance to skyrocket up prospect lists if he can continue to adjust and put up some big numbers this year. He's nowhere near as fast (few are) as Elly, but he's in the mold of Elly De La Cruz, Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, and James Wood as the super tall, super athlete. No, I'm not predicting he's going to be any of those guys, but that's the type of player he is with being such an incredible athlete at that size. He's the guy I'll watch most this summer.

The grading system used was the 20-80 scouting scale. It's THE way people grade baseball players. From there it's a matter of opinion what each player's grade is. The list provided wasn't about making an exact point about each of their grades but just showing that 40-man roster spots, options, and Rule 5 status matters when it comes to 26-man roster decisions. I don't agree with bean's grades (and based on previous posts from that particular poster I'm quite positive they don't agree either as they are nowhere near that high on Pablo), but that isn't the point. The point is that simply placing the 5 starters you feel are likely best in the major league rotation on opening day with no care for the consequences of what that does to guys like Paddack and Castellano who can't just be optioned has real impact on the roster over the course of 162 games (and hopefully some playoff games tacked on). Every major league team needs to take these things into consideration. I think the Twins get crazy with it, but going crazy the other way with it isn't the answer either. There's a balance and sometimes guys make the roster when they shouldn't early on because that's just how the system is set up.

The last 3 years have been driven by new owners. That's the point. He wasn't making the key decisions he was just signing off. We've come full circle so I'm going to bow out now. You asked why we should think he'd drive the Twins into the ground and a couple of us have given you very good reasons why. He's been an awful owner who's overseen one of the worst franchises in the 4 major sports. Feel free to ignore that because they drafted Ant and he's allowed ARod and Lore to make the decisions lately while just signing off. He's been a significantly worse owner than the Pohlads. And that's saying something. His smartest move was to get out of the way and sell the team. The exact same thing we're asking of the Pohlads. We can only hope the results of the Pohlads selling will be as good as the results of Taylor selling.

I didn't gloss over, I stated plainly that they got that right. You've glossed over the entirety of the Wolves history under Taylor. Taylor approving it is far less important than the other 2 being smart enough to target the right person. The Twins got Mauer right. And Morneau. And Hunter. And Santana. And so many others. You're hyper focusing on a recent upswing that's based mostly on a hire that was hand picked by the new owners and not Taylor while ignoring the previous 2 and a half decades of Taylor getting nearly every decision wrong. Flip Saunders and listening to ARod and Lore (who were brand new to the league and still smarter than him) are the only things he's done right. In 30 years. That's a real bad track record. The Wolves getting Ant and KG right doesn't outweigh the rest of Taylor's rule. He's been objectively awful. Suggesting otherwise is revisionist history based on, apparently, 1 great pick recently. Him buying the Twins is the nightmare scenario.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33971725/sources-minnesota-timberwolves-hire-executive-tim-connelly-5-year-deal-worth-40m-includes-ownership-equity "Connelly has discussed the job extensively with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in the past week" https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3326241/2022/05/23/tim-connelly-wolves/ "Connelly met with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in recent days" "That eye for talent and development, coupled with a reputation as being an outgoing and gregarious leader, piqued the interest of Lore and Rodriguez. They got things started in the negotiations, showing an urgency to build on the success the Timberwolves had in their first season in the ownership group. Within 12 hours of their initial meeting with Connelly, they presented him with an offer to let him know they were serious about moving forward. The next step was getting final approval from Taylor." "Lore and Rodriguez have been determined to change the narrative around the Timberwolves and inject some energy into a team that hasn’t spent much time on the national radar. One of their first initiatives, dating back to their arrival last summer, was to ensure they had a top flight lead executive for the president of basketball operations." I can keep going, but it's been well publicized that Lore and ARod lead the charge on bringing in Connelly. Taylor had to give the final sign off, but, make no mistake, ARod and Lore lead that decision. I'm not revising any history. Yes, the Wolves got Ant right. And they got KG right. And in between they had the worst winning percentage in the history of the 4 major North American sports. Pretending Taylor has been anything but a near complete disaster for the 30 years he's owned the team is revisionist history. The Wolves are 1073-1368 under Taylor. Winning percentage of 43.96%. Since KG left they're 551-856. Winning percentage of 39.16%. The Wolves have 13 winning seasons under Taylor's ownership. 17 losing seasons. 13 seasons with a winning percentage under 40%. In baseball terms, that's a 64 or 65 win team. In the same time period, the Twins have had 4 seasons of 65 or fewer wins and we all are awfully disappointed in the way the Twins have performed. Glen Taylor has been an absolutely horrid owner. Replacing the Pohlads with Taylor would not be an improvement in any way, shape, or form. He's been an awful owner and there's no way around that.

This is actually the exact proof of why we shouldn't want him to buy the Twins. He didn't do that stuff. ARod and Lore did. It's the proof that ownership matters. He continually hired completely inept front office personnel (outside of Saunders) and destroyed that team for over a decade. They had the worst winning percentage in North American sports history just a few years ago before new owners started making decisions and they were immediately successful. The Twolves situation is why we should want Taylor nowhere near the Twins.

I'll get Google AI on it to get to the bottom of this.

I don't believe Lewis has ever had TJS and je does have a better arm than Brooks Lee. It's just not that accurate sometimes.

They definitely don't agree to the number on the first day. If he really was so upset with the contract he would've negotiated all the way up until his arbitration date and not just signed the deal at the first opportunity. There's no reason at all to believe Royce is upset with his contract. (Well, beyond just the annoyance I think all players have with the system in general to some extent)

Julien's problem has always been his inability to hit non-fastballs at anywhere close to an acceptable level because his swing was way too steep. His approach got a little off last year, but it wasn't much different than the year before. The difference was that the league figured out that he couldn't hit anything that moved so they stopped throwing him fastballs and started throwing him breaking stuff that he doesn't swing at much because he knows he can't hit them. In the couple clips I've seen of him this spring his swing does look flatter. That's going to be the key to him bouncing back. I'd expect him to get under 50% fastballs to start while he's in the bigs. They're going to make him prove he can hit the breaking stuff.

Numerous reports out that the Twins tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 and couldn't come to an agreement. I'd think that's a sign that if the Twins like him enough now to try to work out a deal again the Phillies wouldn't give him up for just any old toss in deal as they clearly like him, too. The Twins have often times carried a long man in the pen who doesn't see any action for weeks at a time. Certainly a role that a Rule 5 pick could fill. Not ideal to not be able to rotate him down to AAA for a couple weeks after he goes multiple innings and bring up another guy to sit around for 2 weeks, but it can be done. I don't know if he'll earn a season long spot on the 26-man, but there's a path to it if the Twins truly like him that much and the Phillies are asking for too much in trade for him.

I don't know how anyone could think there's not 4 spots 100% locked up already. If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are healthy they're all in the rotation. It's not what I'd do (I believe in Festa and would put him in the rotation and Paddack in the pen if they're both still in the org come opening day), but I don't know how anyone thinks that isn't what the Twins are planning. And it's not a completely outrageous idea as you know you're going to need at least 7 or 8 starters to get through the year. I expect Paddack to be unpredictable from start to start and to get injured at some point before the all-star break. The Twins believe in him. Apparently, they've been rather obsessed with him since pre-pandemic days. He's getting a rotation spot if he's healthy and still with the team. I don't know why we'd think anything else. As for SWR, he should absolutely have the inside track to the 5th spot as camp opens. I am not a big believer in his upside, but he pitched well enough for most of last season to have earned the inside track. If his velo is down or he just looks completely lost out there during the spring he could certainly lose his spot to Festa, but he'll get the benefit of the doubt. Especially since he's down to his last option year. It may not be ideal, but options matter. You need to take those roster building rules into account.

Definitely don't move him to the bottom of the defensive spectrum until you absolutely need to. Let him keep working at 3B with professional coaches and see if they can improve him there. Very boom or bust type prospect. Clearly has the power but if you can't make enough contact it doesn't matter. I don't mind that kind of chance with the 60th pick at all. Would've hated it in the first round, though. He likely flames out in AA or AAA, but that's true of every prospect. Taking a chance on a guy with a super high offensive ceiling is worth it after you start getting later in the 2nd round.

Seems like a reasonable breakdown of a plan for him. I don't think it's likely that he debuts this year, but I think it's a possibility. I don't think there's many people who watch him pitch and don't think he has MLB stuff right now. He had MLB stuff coming out of college. He has one of the best sliders on the planet. How well he holds up is a real question and he very well may be worn out by September and not a real option. But if he's as good as everyone thinks he is talent-wise he should be outstanding and getting to the majors in a pen role is very realistic. He's quite possibly one of the 15 most talented arms the Twins have right now. Whether the Twins actually decide to use him or not is very much up in the air as they aren't exactly known for taking chances on young guys if they don't have to. I certainly wouldn't bet on him debuting, but I think it's a real chance if his arm holds up. Not needing to be added to the 40-man shouldn't play any role in the decision. If he has to be added in November anyways not adding him in September if he's one of your 13 best arms is an incredibly flawed decision.

They're almost the exact same player. Both aggressive swingers who have questionable power for 1B, bad gloves, and no speed. I'll be incredibly surprised if France doesn't make this team, but hope he's sent packing by the end of April if he isn't performing. At least Bader brings speed and defense and isn't an older clone of a player the Twins already have. Even if I'm not a fan of him being an everyday player.

Left field in Boston is pretty easy, but I agree with the general idea here. Will be interesting to see what Kepler's glove is like in LF in Philly.

Oh, you'd definitely put Bader in LF over Larnach if they're your 2 options. But is Bader in LF and France at 1B with Miranda on the bench better than Larnach in left and Miranda DH? Or is Bader in LF, Miranda at 1B, and Larnach at DH the best setup? It's a whole lineup question to me. If Bader is your everyday LFer and France is your everyday 1B then either Larnach or Miranda are sitting. That's my fear with the comments Rocco has made early in camp. It's entirely possible they both hit and field better than Larnach and Miranda, but I wouldn't bet on it as of this moment. Injuries will take care of much of this throughout the year, but my fear is that poor play won't take care of it. I don't like Bader and France as the default starters. And that's my current read on Rocco's statements. A lot can change between now and March 27th, though.

Prielipp has the chance to be the homegrown ace we're all looking for. I'd expect him to be on a pretty strict innings limit this year while making a bunch of 2-4 inning starts in the minors. He has a chance to debut at some point out of the pen this year and really be on the right track. Turning into Ragans would be awesome and isn't a far-fetched idea.