chpettit19

I definitely don't think other teams are planning for it. It just feels like more of them are becoming more and more open to it. Michael Harris is another one who skipped AAA a few years ago. It's definitely still rare. And I haven't taken the time to actually go look into the numbers to see how many guys are going quicker so it may just be my perception mixed with the Angels going wild. But I named 10 guys above. That feels like a larger number than usual. Just off the top of my head. Over the last 2 seasons.

Another youngster with very little experience making a jump to the majors. Cam was the 14th pick in last year's draft and was traded (as part of a larger package of players) from the Cubs to the Astros over the offseason for Kyle Tucker. He played 32 games in the minors last year, including just 5 at AA. He had 20 PAs in the upper minors (all in those 5 AA games). The Angels have been the most aggressive team in recent years with promoting players. Zach Neto was the 13th pick in 2022 (5 spots after Brooks Lee) and was shortstop for the Angels on April 15th of 2023. In 2023 they drafted Nolan Schanuel 11th overall, and he was at first base in LA on August 18th of that year. Many feel it is just a matter of time before Christian Moore is between them at 2B after he was taken 8th overall last year. The Athletics took Jacob Wilson with the 6th pick in 2023 and had him at SS on July 19, 2024 (he was sent back down after, but was back for September) after just 79 minor league games. Paul Skenes made 12 minor league starts for Pittsburgh after going #1 overall in 2023. And I'd argue (very strongly) that that was too many. Keeping him in the minors to start last year cost them a draft pick and they didn't get an extra year of service time for it anyways. Wyatt Langford went #4 in 2023 and played 44 minor league games that season before debuting on opening day for the defending World Series champions last year. Jackson Holliday was likely the most famous Jackson to debut last year at the age of 20, but very much the least successful and the latest. He didn't debut until the Orioles' 11th game on April 10th, and had a rough first go of things. He's played 155 minor league games before he debuted. Jackson Chourio was another of the 20-year-old Jacksons to debut last year. He played many more minor league games as an international free agent signing (didn't have to wait to be drafted after high school). Including 134 games in the upper minors. He had also signed an MLB contract before his debut. So, he debuted on opening day. And was a star by the end of June. Jackson Merrill rounds out our Jackson trio. Jackson debuted at the age of 20 (turned 21 in April, though) playing a position he'd never played before last spring (CF after having spent his entire life as a SS). He had 46 games in AA under his belt with just a .782 OPS there. Young Mr. Merrill was also a star by the end of June. These are just the names that I have off the top of my head. There may be more the last couple years I'm not thinking of. Are the times changing? Are we going to see more and more teams turning to more and more young players sooner and sooner in their careers? What's driving it? Is it going to hurt players or help them? The Twins were relatively aggressive with Brooks Lee and even got Walker Jenkins to AA in his first year. Are they already following any new aggressive promotion trend?

They're hoping Dobnak doesn't throw a pitch, just like the majority of us. And just like the majority of us would wish with anyone they picked off the waiver wire. He's there in case a starter blows up or gets hurt in a start before Stewart is activated. They didn't want to risk losing Blewett or any of the other guys without options the first week of the season. Reasonable decision even if it's also reasonable to risk those guys now.

The Orioles just sold a year ago. There's multiple groups ready to buy expansion teams. There's a lot more drunken sailors ready to give out ridiculous contracts.

Like @stringer bell, my concern has always been that Bader is more than just a platoon bat, defensive replacement. I think today's lineup is likely the opening day lineup (but Bader will be in an outfield corner and Wallner or Larnach will be at DH). I think Bader was always seen as an everyday guy. That interview on Hot Stove doesn't sound like a guy who thought he was coming in to play 25% of the time. He's here to play every day. I don't think he has the bat for that. Especially in a corner. The Mets didn't think he had the bat to backup CF on their team trying to win the World Series. Bader is going to bring a great glove. He'll bring speed. He'll run the bases well. Seems like a hard worker and good dude. I don't like him as an everyday guy. If Emma starts lighting St Paul on fire and Bader is struggling and they don't push him aside it's going to be pretty frustrating, but not surprising. We'll see how it plays out. He's another 1 year guy so he'll be out of the way next year and we'll see which 1 year guy they bring in then.

Yeah, that's why I said nearly every year. Every team is allowed to have a spike year. The Braves shouldn't be expected to have Strider, Acuna, Riley, Harris, Albies, and Murphy hurt every year, and them all being hurt last year shouldn't be an indictment on their training staff. Acuna blowing out his ACL twice isn't a failure on the training staff. They took a risk on Sale who'd been a disaster with Boston and it turned into a Cy Young. The Twins take way more risks than I'd like on low ceiling players with major injury concerns. Mahle, Topa, and DeSclafani are not Sale. If Sale stays healthy he wins the Cy Young. If those other 3 stay healthy they aren't winning awards. Buxton is a nice risk, in my opinion, because he's paid as a half-season player with incentives if he plays all year and wins awards. Lewis wasn't a gamble, he's just turned into a guy who hasn't stayed healthy. Not sure what is supposed to be done about that. Same with Kirilloff. Did other teams think he was likely to retire at 27 from injury problems? I don't think that's realistic. Jenkins pulled a hammy once and twisted an ankle once. Not sure why his name is being brought up. Lee is an interesting one depending on what info they had about his back before the draft. I know he was praised heavily by a lot of industry folks at the time of the draft, but there were other options for that pick that would've been reasonable as well if they had real medical concerns. Neto, at this early stage in their careers, was clearly the better SS pick. There's always things to criticize for every team. And teams that can't spend as much have to make fewer mistakes. But I think the Twins get too much criticism for the injuries they suffer compared to the rest of the league. It appears to be mostly a symptom of following one team so closely and being unaware of what's actually happening around the entire league, in my estimation.

Brock Stewart is making 870k this year. That's 110k over the league minimum. Really breaking the bank on that one! The Mariners paid DeSclafani last year. They had already traded for him that offseason. The Dodgers traded for and then extended Tyler Glasnow who has never made more than 22 starts in a major league season in his 9 year career. Not once. And he's only made 20 starts twice. Only cracked 15 starts those 2 times as well. Only gotten over 11 starts 5 times. They gave him $135+ million. Pretending the Twins have an above average injury rate is being purposefully obtuse. It's why I responded in kind. The Twins could trade Buxton or Correa today without question. Of course it's a more limited list for Correa as there's a number of teams that wouldn't take on 30+ a year for multiple years, but they could easily move him if they wanted to. Carlos Correa played 136 and 135 games his first 2 years here. Walker Jenkins has a twisted ankle. What are we even talking about? Corey Seager, Ronald Acuna Jr, Mike Trout, Walker Buehler, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Pedroia, Tulo, Nomar, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey. And those are just the names I can come up with off the top of my head over the last decade or so who had careers ruined or significantly altered for long stretches because of injuries. Acuna and Sale are on the same team now. Same with Seager and deGrom. deGrom, Syndergaard, and Harvey were all on the same team. Stanton and Judge being hurt at the same time in 2023 caused the Yankees to miss the playoffs for just the 5th time in the 21st century. EVERY team deals with injuries. Yes, Buxton and Lewis getting hurt as frequently as they do is an anomaly and absolutely brutal. It's not because the training staff is incompetent. The Twins as a team are just about average nearly every year even with those 2 when it comes to the number of injuries and days spent on the IL as a team. Go look at the Dodgers and Braves IL from last year. Far worse than the Twins. The Twins catchers and starting rotation have been incredibly healthy for years now. This idea that the Twins are hurt far more than other teams is provably false. Buxton and Lewis are anomalies. It sucks, there's no denying that. But, as a team, the Twins do not have an injury problem.

My answer is the same. We know why arms get hurt more now. Max effort. On velocity and spin. It's not surprising that when you test the very limits of what the human body can do you break the human body. That doesn't make guys now "more fragile" it means they're doing things the guys back then couldn't do. That's the natural progression of the world. In order for me to beat you I have to be able to do more than you. And in order for the next guy to beat me they have to be able to do more than me. Well we're getting to the limits of what the body can physically handle. And, for the record, pitchers aren't used for shorter stints now because of pitch counts for arm health, but performance. Teams have figured out where starter's peak performance is and are trying to maximize that. Again, it's about getting the most max effort out of them. It's about the number of times they go through a lineup, not the number of pitches they throw. From there the teams are tracking far more advanced things than pitch counts. They're tracking spin, extension, arm angle, release points, etc. to determine when guys get tired. Not pitch counts. But that's a talk for another day. As for gathering statistics to prove you wrong, it's a little difficult because the rules of baseball have changed. It used to be that you could only put a certain number of guys on the DL at a time and once you reached your limit you were just out of luck. So, looking at days lost to DL/IL trips or number of guys put on the DL/IL is misleading. The minimum amount of time needed to be spent on the list has also changed over time. Shrinking from 60, to 30, to 21, and splitting into multiple lists with the 15, 10, and 60 day DL/ILs. Every study that's been run on MLB injury rates that I can find states that it's inconclusive because of these changes. The injury rates show they're going up, but the rates of increase go up with each increase in team's abilities to use the DL/IL. Crazy dichotomy, don't you think?

As opposed to all the other teams with no injuries because their Drs and trainers have solved the great mystery of sports injuries? Can't believe the Twins couldn't solve Kirirloff's genetic disorders. Such failures. So incompetent. You named 7 players. Do you feel that is a large number? The Twins are about average when it comes to the amount of injuries they deal with. It just feels like more because they're who we focus on and are emotionally attached to. The Dodgers couldn't keep Stewart healthy either. And the Padres couldn't keep Paddack healthy. And the Mariners couldn't keep Topa healthy. Multiple teams couldn't keep DeSclafani healthy. That doesn't make the Twins medical staff incompetent, it makes the front office overly reliant on injury prone players because they're cheaper. Why should the expectation be that the Twins medical staff can do what nobody else can do? Why should they be expected to keep bodies with genetic reasons why they don't stay healthy healthy anyways? Seems like an unreasonable expectation. Why is the standard "healthier than expected" for injury prone players? Is the standard for development that the coaches get average players to be above average players or they're failures? Alex Kirilloff retired at the age of 27. He had to have his wrist bones surgically shortened. That's the trainers and Drs faults? They couldn't teach him how to lift and stretch his way out of genetic problems like extra long wrist bones and spinal issues? Man, such incompetence over at 1 Twins Way! I see your point.

First base? The position that requires sudden, full out stretches in almost any direction after a quick sprint to the base? I'm not sure that's a good idea for a guy with hamstring and other soft tissue leg concerns. Actually, I think it's actually possibly the second worst position behind catcher for Royce Lewis.

Such is life sometimes. The Rangers get 160 games a year out of Marcus Semien and 120 from Corey Seager. Royce Lewis can hit a baseball 450 feet and I can't. Genetics is a heck of a thing.

I agree with that assessment of both. And I think it's reasonable to keep both, even if I'd have traded Julien before last year and would move Lee for a top catcher prospect if I could. I don't think either is likely a key to the Twins future, but both are reasonable guys to keep around for the reasons you mentioned. That's the challenge of running a major league team. Every player is a spectrum of outcomes. We all hope they reach the top end, but very few do. The Twins have just added the extra frustrating variable of injuries to the equation far too often recently.

Well, @Lucas Seehafer PT is a trained professional on these forums. And he provided a number of responses in this thread about Lewis' injury. Including this one:

Does it? Or do some of them? Like some of them did in the past, too? Arms get hurt more now because max effort is used. Max velocity and spin is what drives elbows blowing up. It's been studied time and time again. MLB themselves studied it and are even trying to find ways to change rules to get teams to quit doing it. But as far as guys like Royce pulling muscles, I'm going to need you to provide some evidence that it's happening more than it used to.

I am quite certain he does this. He's a professional athlete with hundreds of millions of dollars on the line. The Twins are a professional sports team with a lot invested in him. He's gone through 2 ACL rehabs. He didn't do those on his own. I'm pretty sure he's got some pretty smart people helping him when it comes to knowing how to train.

I'm not sure what the suggestion is here. He's an arbitration player playing on a cheap deal. They haven't extended him. I'm not aware of any rumors of them trying to extend him. Fans have become quite upset that the team has had the nerve to move him positions in season (for 2 games) and had him practice playing another infield position over the offseason. The team has multiple other young players ready to play his position. When Royce is healthy Royce is going to play because he has the potential to be an MVP level bat. When he's hurt he isn't going to play. I don't get what this article is suggesting changing. What else are they supposed to be doing? They aren't trading away Lee or Castro or Miranda because of Lewis. They aren't extending Lewis for 10 years. They're going year by year through arbitration and playing him when he's healthy. What else should they do?

I'm not interpreting it that way. I'm saying there wasn't a meaningful difference. I'm saying his performance in 2024 was essentially the same as it was in 2023 which was essentially the same as it was in 2022. You can find stats to worry about if you want to (I'm saying that's what you're doing) and stats that say there's nothing to worry about (that's what I'm doing to counter your article and comments). His fastball had the best whiff% of his career last year (36.1% vs 35.7 in 2023 and 25.8 in 2022), best K% (33.7% vs 30.2% in 2023 and 25.5 in 2022), best put away% (26.4% vs 20 in 2023 and 18.9 in 2022), tied for best hard hit% (33.3% vs 40.7 in 2023 and 33.3 in 2022), best z-contact% (71.6% vs 73.8 in 2023 and 79.1% in 2022). That's a lot of "bests" for a fastball that we need to worry about. His fastball lost 2 inches of vertical movement and gained 1.5 inches of horizontal movement while having the best active spin % of his career. WPA is a counting stat. He threw more innings in 2023. His WPA/Inning pitched in 2023 was .032. In 2024 it was .028. He had 34 shutdown appearances in 2024 vs only 27 in 2023 and 34 in 2022. He had 58 appearances in 2024 vs 59 in 2023 and 57 in 2022. His "clutch" rating in 2023 was negative, it was positive in 2024. Sure, you can find things to worry about with Duran if you want. But I don't see the overall numbers saying it. The "full tick" he lost on his fastball in 2024 was back to what it was in 2022 when he was the most dominant he's ever been. He was still the hardest throwing player in all of baseball last year even at "just" 100.5.

As always with Cleveland, how will the youngsters perform? Can Manzardo make up for the loss of Naylor? Can DeLauter get then stay healthy (shockingly the Twins aren't the only team who has big time prospects with health concerns) and live up to his potential? Can Bazzana jump to the bigs at some point in his first full season (oh the horrors of a prospect debuting without hundreds of upper minors ABs!) and provide a spark? The Guardians will do what they always do. They'll start with the guys they hope will be good and then they'll start cycling through the rest of their options until they find the combination that "has it" that year. They'll play with energy. They'll bring a bunch of filthy guys out of the pen. And they'll make you play quality baseball to beat them. Jose Ramirez is a top 5ish player in baseball. Steven Kwan is star if he maintains his power gains from last year (how dare a team teach a speedy contact hitter to add some power to his game! Just let him be who he is!). Clase and Smith may be the best 1-2 pen punch in baseball. Clase-Smith-Gaddis may be the best 1-2-3 pen punch in baseball. What can the rest of the roster do? My line for Cleveland is always right around 85 wins. They can go +/-10 from there, but they're always a preseason 85 win team for me. They're so hard to predict because that's just the nature of young players and they always have a heavy dose of young players. They have talent, but they're volatile. They're going to come out fighting every time they step on the field, though. And Ramirez is a treat to watch.

My point is that his 3rd season wasn't actually meaningfully different than his first 2. Are the 3 seasons below in order or not? Can you tell without looking super closely at certain numbers that you know? My point is that Duran didn't significantly change last year. That's why I pointed out the nonsense of you calling 32.9% "still-solid" as if it wasn't actually great. He was still elite last year. He didn't suddenly start getting hit hard. He was still striking people out. Yes, his ERA ballooned, but not to 5 or 7 or anything crazy. The point is that he was still great. Especially in the 9th where his ERA was 2.17 and he had a .207/.280/.311/.591 line against.

Fastball shape absolutely matters. But he hasn't always thrown 102. Including in his dominant rookie season. His fastball velo in 2022 was 100.8. Last year it was 100.5. His whiff rate in 2022 was 34.7. 94th percentile. Last year was 32.9. 93rd percentile. He's been over 100 MPH multiple times this spring. His K rate in 2022 was higher than in 2023 even though he wasn't throwing as hard. He didn't have to throw 102 in 2022 or 2024 to be effective so why should we believe he has to do it in 2025? How many swings has he had against him this spring to generate that 11.8% whiff rate? How many of them came in the game Tuesday? I agree, teams should be looking for trends and trying to decipher what they mean. I mentioned pitch sequencing and tipping specifically because of his chase rate. If he's hurt that's a massive concern. What is your concern if he isn't hurt? The league "figured him out?" They have him solved at 100.1 vs 100.5 to the tune of a 20% difference in whiff%? 10% difference in whiff%? That's why I point out the misleading statement of "still-solid 32.9% whiff rate." That's the 93rd percentile. And he was throwing 100, not 102 last year. He was "touching" 100 on Tuesday. He's been over 100 multiple times already this spring. So, he's in the same range he's been in for 2 out of 3 years in his career where his whiff% was in the 93rd and 94th percentiles. I'm not so concerned about the crazy small sample size producing a 11.8 whiff rate at this point, no.

What I described was a player who I believe has a range of outcomes between a utility infielder and average regular. Which is why I said he'd be between a utility infielder and average regular. Luis Arraez doesn't hit for power or take walks and he's most definitely not a below average bat. I'm not predicting Lee will hit like Arraez, just saying there's a wider range of outcomes and a path to a successful hitter. Correa has slow feet and is still an elite defender because of his size, instincts and arm strength. I'm not predicting Lee will field like Correa, just saying there's a wider range of outcomes and a path to a good fielder with his size and instincts but lack of arm strength. He's not a finished product. I watched him a lot in St Paul. I don't think he's going to be a star. Never did. But I think he has a chance to be a solid regular. Don't think it's a sure thing by any means. Maybe a 50/50 shot. If he ends up on the low end of all his outcomes he won't even have a major league career. If he ends up on the high end of all of them he'll be an above average regular. I don't find that to be a realistic outcome. What I described was a guy who has a range of outcomes. Like every other human who's ever tried to be great at something.

"His overall whiff rate was the worst of his career at a still-solid 32.9%." A little misleading here, aren't we? "Still-solid?" 32.9% was the 93rd percentile for whiff rate in baseball last year. That's a little more than "solid." The 75th percentile is "solid." The 93rd percentile is quite a bit better than "solid." Duran was at 99.7 that day that Nick said he didn't "touch" 100. He "touched" it, he just didn't break it. Again, what are we talking about? Duran can't get guys out throwing 100 instead of 102? If Duran is hurt, that's very much a problem. Otherwise, I'm not so worried. He's broke 100 multiple times this spring. 100 with a hammer curve is plenty to get guys out. Pitch sequencing and possibly tipping pitches has always been my concern with Duran. There are a whole lot of teams that'd be happy to have this "concerning, decline season" from a guy in their pen: My goodness. That fastball velo of just 100.5 instead of 102 was good enough for just the 100th percentile.

Yes. The homerun races were awesome!

I've never seen the star in Lee that many have seen, or at least hoped for. He simply isn't very athletic. His arm isn't strong enough (but is accurate) and his feet aren't quick enough for him to be an elite defender, but his hands and instincts are good enough for him to be a good defender anywhere on the infield, in my opinion. He has some quality bat to ball skills, but he doesn't have super quick hands or great patience. He doesn't drive the ball super well so doesn't hit for power and doesn't take a ton of walks. He may become an average regular, but I don't see anything more than that. Probably better served as your backup IFer to start the year on a championship contender. As for all the talk of moving Lewis to 1B to keep him healthy. Why would you move the guy with leg issues to the position where he'll have to stretch at a moments notice multiple times a game? Why do people think 1B is this position that just magically keeps guys healthy? 1B would be a terrible position for Lewis. You really want him stretching to pick off-line throws? That's what's going to save his hamstrings? Or would they just be telling him to make no attempt at all to go after throws that aren't right at his chest? Put him at DH or where his skill set fits best with the rest of the team. Either he's going to get hurt or he isn't. 1B doesn't have this magical forcefield around it that saves guys from getting hurt.

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