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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    That wasn't your point. You've stated numerous times that Miranda hurt himself because he didn't have the arm to play 3B and he was trying too hard to improve his arm to play 3B in the majors. He hurt his shoulder in 2023 because of that and then his back last year because of his shoulder. That's always been your argument. Until now. His arm is fine and was fine. As displayed by the fact that he threw as hard as Lee and harder than Bregman last year. You think the Twins don't have Drs and trainers who know where Miranda is at in his recovery but you do all the way from Brazil? Again, you're just making stuff up by saying "underlying conditions." The Twins give Miranda physicals. They take scans. They put him through drills. They know where he is from a health and recovery standpoint. 1B isn't some magic position that is going to save Miranda. It wasn't some magic position that was going to save Kirilloff. The guy retired at the age of 27 because of injuries. That wasn't because he had to play OF. He had to have his wrist bone surgically shortened for goodness sake. He has a back condition that had nothing to do with playing the outfield. He hurt his shoulder diving for a ball at 1B. The idea isn't at all the same between Keaschall and Miranda. Keaschall isn't playing the field at all. Miranda is. And your argument for Miranda isn't that he shouldn't play 3B this year. Or that he shouldn't have played last year. It's that he should never have been playing it. You're trying to move the goalpost now because you're realizing you've been proven completely wrong. Keaschall isn't healed yet. Miranda was healed. Your argument has always been that Miranda never should've been playing 3B to begin with. Your argument has always been that he hurt his shoulder in the first place because he tried too hard to strengthen an arm that wasn't strong enough to play the position. Not that he was injured and should've been given more time to recover. The Keaschall comp doesn't work at all. Miranda went from completely healthy to hurt while playing a position he'd played the majority of his minor league career. Not at all the same thing. And not at all about his arm not being strong enough. Your argument about Miranda and third base has been wrong from the beginning.
  2. chpettit19
    No, you miss the point. I provided you the numbers for their arms. Alex Bregman has a weaker arm than Jose Miranda. Brooks Lee has virtually the exact same arm strength as Jose Miranda. But you don't care because you've decided you're smarter than the numbers. You're smarter than radars and computers so you know that Miranda was hurt despite the fact that his arm is clearly strong enough to make that throw. Just saying "underlying condition" doesn't make the facts go away. Jose Miranda played over two thousand innings at third base in the minors without getting hurt. TWO THOUSAND. He had 438 assists. That means he made that throw 438 times in games alone. So not even counting practices where he likely made that throw well over 1000 times. He had another 284 innings and 66 assists at shortstop in the minors. 1173 innings and 200 assists from 3B in the majors. At all levels, over 9 seasons, Jose Miranda has played 3416.2 innings and made 662 assists from third base. In practices he's made the throw from third thousands of times. Just saying "underlying conditions" like it explains all that away is meaningless and doesn't outweigh facts. He didn't wait until he made the majors and then suddenly decide he needed to work harder and strengthen his arm for 3B where he'd spent the vast majority of his minor league career. You love to say "it's common sense" until common sense disagrees with you. It doesn't make any sense at all that he'd spend most of his minor league career playing 3B then make the majors as a 3B and then suddenly go crazy trying to strengthen his arm that is already strong enough to play the position. If Miranda's arm is "overtaxed at 3B" but it's the same strength as Lee's then why aren't you worried about Lee? Where is the "common sense" in that? If it's stronger than Bregman's why isn't Bregman hurting himself making that throw? Simple answer: it isn't overtaxed and his injuries aren't from playing there they just happened.
  3. chpettit19
    For sure. He, unfortunately, has his own injury concerns, but Emma, Jenkins, Keaschal are possible answers. I think many of us agree that development is the answer to almost every question. You can pay Correa 30+, Pablo 20+, Buxton 15+, and all the other guys their arb numbers if you're developing behind them. It's not easy and you're not going to hit on anywhere close to 100%, but you have to be able to hit at a better rate than they have.
  4. chpettit19
    I wish they'd stay healthy. I definitely get the frustration. I get frustrated, too. But they're better than anything we'd replace them with. And they aren't expensive. Lewis especially. But even Buxton. Correa is. But last year was the only time here he didn't play at least 135 games. Every team deals with injuries every year. Every single one. The Twins aren't special. Yes, Buxton and Lewis are hurt way more than usual, but that doesn't mean the Twins deal with more injuries and need more "starter level backups" than everybody else. It's actually a bonus knowing where you're going to need your injury fill-ins. Every team wants starter level replacements for their starters who get injured. The injuries to other teams don't all happen to bench guys. But they don't all know it'll be at 3B and CF. Theirs may be LF or SS or 2B or 1B or C or RF. The Twins have had incredible SP and C health the last couple years but people want to focus on the injuries even though the Twins are league average overall. The Twins failing to develop a useable CF option for league minimum is the problem. Having to go out and get MAT, Margot, or Bader types is the problem. You should be able to develop a guy who can play OF defense and OPS+ 70-90 to backup Buck for 750K instead of 4-7 mil. Keirsey may be that guy now, but his injuries held him up too long. If they have a glove only guy like MAT or Bader from the system all these years its not such a big deal to work to have Buxton healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and have him for that time of year.
  5. chpettit19
    There's no magical position where guys don't get hurt. Guys get hurt at every position. Freddie Freeman is a star and plays first base and was hurt all playoffs last year anyways because you can get hurt playing any position(he's also not playing today because he's hurt). Third base is not a physically demanding position. Ronald Acuna Jr gets hurt playing in right field, not center field. Royce has been hurt running the bases 2 years in a row. Fernando Tatis Jr has been injured swinging his bat. Your suggestion isn't an answer to anything. Yes, "occasional star-quality performances" are enough to win a championship. It's exactly what the postseason is. A one month stretch where you need to get hot and get star-quality performances to win a championship. You don't need Buxton and Lewis to be stars for 6 months of the regular season, you need to get in the playoffs and have them be stars for a month. Go ask the Dodgers and their fans. Remember that Corey Seager fella I mentioned that you deleted out because he "had nothing to do with the point you're making of the Twins paying part-time players full-time salaries?" Well, he's making a "full-time salary" (32.5 mil/year) and was a "part-time player" in 2023, but was there for the postseason and helped Texas win a World Series. Hey, if you think the Twins can replace what Lewis and Buxton do for $17 million, more power to you. I think you'd be hard pressed, but at least you wouldn't have to worry about a star getting hurt. Because you wouldn't have them.
  6. chpettit19
    So is everyone else in the league. Welcome to pro sports. And, again, ROYCE LEWIS MAKES 1.625 MILLION. That is not "full-time salary" no matter how many times you want to say it. And Buxton's 15 mil is not "full-time salary" either. A player of his talent level being paid a "full-time salary" gets paid over 30 mil. He's getting paid a "part-time salary." Sorry to break it to you.
  7. chpettit19
    Fine. Cut them. Trade them. Now you have $17 million and only need one starting 3B and CF. Find even remotely as much talent as Buxton and Lewis for $17 million to build your team with. Good luck with that. Not a lot of starting level guys out there for 8.5 mil. Harrison Bader doing it for you? It sucks they can't stay healthy. But you need stars if you want to win at a high level. They're stars. You need them. So you need to develop talent behind them to get you through the times they're down and hope they're healthy for the postseason and you can go on a run. Or you can get rid of them and give up all hope.
  8. chpettit19
    I won't add Correa to the list because he doesn't belong there. He played 136 games his first year here and 135 his 2nd, That's the point. You delete the entire part where I list numerous other players playing less and making more because you have a narrative you want to sell. I'm not buying. Buxton and Lewis are contributing commensurate to their salaries. They're outperforming their salaries. Lewis makes less than 2 million this year. He'll outproduce that salary in a month. He isn't getting "full-time money." Correa missing half of one year doesn't suddenly make him a "part-time player." Until you can name anybody even close to their talent level to replace them then your strategy is just as much "hope" as keeping them around. Putting less talented guys out there for more games and "hoping" they are suddenly better players isn't a strategy either. So, back to my original question to you. What's the other plan? For any or all three of the guys you think aren't meeting their pay. Trade them? Cut them? Bench them? Move Buxton to a corner, Lewis to 1B and Correa to 3B (hint: there's no magic position on a baseball field where guys don't get hurt)? You're the one who thinks there needs to be changes. What changes should there be that isn't just a strategy of hope? How are you going to replace the 3 most talented players on the team or keep them on the field more without hope being your strategy?
  9. chpettit19
    He makes 1.625 million, so, yeah, keep him on the roster and pay him while he's on the IL. Every team has injuries. I don't know why fans act like it's just the the Twins. Buxton and Lewis are extreme, that's it. Ronald Acuna Jr has had 2 ACL tears, another season with an ACL sprain, multiple with back injuries, multiple with groin injuries, and has only played 119 games three times in 7 years (less than half the time for those counting). He's on a $100,000,000 deal. Should the Braves trade him? Cut him? Last year they lost Spencer Strider, Acuna (to his 2nd ACL tear), Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies (only played 4 full seasons in 8 years), and Michael Harris II. Should they trade any of those guys or "stock the roster with fragile, part-time players at full-time prices?" But then they actually got over 103 innings out of Chris Sale for the first time since 2019 as he wont the Cy Young for them. "Fragile, part-time player at full-time price" paid off pretty well there. In 10 major league seasons Corey Seager has played over 120 games 5 times. Helped Texas win a World Series, though. Oh, and the Dodgers. And he's on a $325,000,000 deal. Some fella named Trout has played 100 games once since 2019, 140 once since 2017. And he's making $426,500,000. Stephen Strasburg helped the Nats win a World Series and had a $245,000,000 deal while making 30 starts 3 times in 13 seasons, and just 8 starts after 2019. And those are just the guys I can think of off the top of my head. The Twins aren't special. This is just the world of professional sports. It sucks. Buxton and Lewis are most certainly extremes, but they're not the only ones. Go ask a Reds fan about Ken Griffey Jr. Shoot, even Red Sox fans got pretty fed up with Pedroia, and he was a hero around there. You need stars to win. Buxton and Lewis are stars. It sucks they can't seem to stay healthy. But neither of them are expensive in the grand scheme of baseball salaries, and moving them without stars to replace them wouldn't make the team better.
  10. chpettit19
    Do what? Trade him for pennies on the dollar and put in the less talented players you're already putting in there? Just cut him and play the less talented players you're already playing? They're having him train as best they know how. They have world class doctors and trainers coming up with his training plans. What exactly should they be doing? What better option do they have? Nobody is going to give them some killer package for him. When he's healthy they put him out there because he's amongst the most talent baseball players on the planet. When he's hurt they play somebody else. What else can they do?
  11. chpettit19
    Bobby Witt Jr is in the in the discussion for the best non-Shohei player in baseball. Their rotation should be solid. But I think they take a step back. They lead the AL in BA w/RISP last year. I don't think they're going to hit .282 w/RISP again. I don't think they're going to pitch quite as well. I think they'll be in the upper 70s or lower 80s for wins.
  12. chpettit19
    It's not complicated. Get your best hitters to the plate the most. Figure out who your 4 or 5 best hitters are and put them in the top 4 or 5 spots. Save the platooning/pinch hitting guys for the 5 or 6 through 9 holes. Outside of 2023, the team has been horrible at pinch hitting. Pinch hitters as a whole pay a price compared to their normal batting line. Stop putting platoon bats at the top of the lineup only to pinch hit for them later. Put your 4 or 5 best hitters at the top of the lineup and leave them there all game, every game. Not because major league hitters get confused by hitting in a different spot in the lineup but because creating lineups is simple. Get your best hitters to the plate as often as possible.
  13. chpettit19
    Wait until you hear about pitchers hurting their arms throwing baseballs...
  14. chpettit19
    This looks right to me. Only real battle left is Martin vs Julien probably. And that comes down to where they are comfortable playing everyone and whether or not they'd prefer to get a specific guy everyday ABs in St Paul.
  15. chpettit19
    People think the Twins need a new training staff because they clearly don't know what they're doing? Imagine having Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy all get hurt on your watch last year. Welcome to pro sports, folks. Injuries happen. It sucks that Buxton and Lewis have them happen so frequently, and Correa has had the foot issue in back to back years, but the Twins aren't special. They aren't some crazy outliers. The Dodgers lost roughly 84 rotation members last year (slight exaggeration). The Rangers had a ton of injuries. There are injuries all over the league every year. It happens to every team.
  16. chpettit19
    One of these players was handed the 3B job going into 2023 and then hurt his shoulder. You've spent 2 years blaming playing him at 3B for that arm injury and then his back injury last year. You call for Rocco's head for making this decision and setting that player up for failure because he just doesn't have the arm for 3B and there was no way he wouldn't get hurt doing it even though he'd played there 2145 innings in the minors. The other 2 players are Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. Player 1: Max MPH throw: 83.2, Overall 81.2 Player 2: Max MPH throw: 85.5, Overall 83.7 Player 3: Max MPH throw: 83.1, Overall 81.5 All of those arms are below average. Spoiler alert, Royce is the middle one and he's now hurt. Pick out Lee vs Miranda. Player 1 or 3. Who should start at 3B and who is having his career threatened by playing him there because his arm isn't strong enough? Bonus Player 4 not on Twins who just signed a $40 million/year free agent deal as the defending AL Gold Glove winning 3B: Max MPH throw: 82.5, Overall 80.7 Bonus question: Should Boston move Bregman to 1B to save his career because he just couldn't possibly play 3B with that arm while leaving Devers at 3B since his arm has a max throw of 87.9 with an overall average of 84.7? Or can we just put your arm strength argument that isn't based on anything real to bed?
  17. chpettit19
    Spoiler alert...according to this article by Anthony Castrovince, they are not. Looking at the staffs on this list, I'd put the Twins in the top 10. Somewhere in the 6-10 range probably. What do others think? Would you put the Twins in the top 10? What do you think of this ranking in general?
  18. chpettit19
    That's a much better explanation of what my point is.
  19. chpettit19
    Based on the last few days worth of lineups, it looks like Miranda may be losing PAs to Bader as well as they've been putting Bader in the OF with Wallner DHing over Miranda in a lineup with all the other guys who are expected to be everyday guys.
  20. chpettit19
    The cost per WAR stuff is kind of my point. They were a "success" because they were cheap and not terrible. Not because they raised the team's ceiling. It's hard to judge the "other options" because there's no direct comparison. Minor leaguers that never got real playing time can't be compared to these guys, but they're part of the "other options." If you drop all the veterans on the Twins who make about 10 mil or less over the last handful of years you get over 30 million per year. So, another star level player is also part of the options if you're willing to run with league minimum guys in the other spots. Not an easy comparison to make.
  21. chpettit19
    I think the definition of "success" is important here. Is the definition of success for these types of additions just not being bad? It's a relative thing, right? They're "successful" because they weren't bad while being "cheap." Carlos Santana had the 2nd most plate appearances on the Twins last year. He was 129 PAs ahead of the 3rd spot (that's about 1.25 months worth of PAs). Is a 109 OPS+ from your 1B and 2nd most used hitter really a success? Or is it just better than what the vast majority of us expected and "good" relative to his contract? MAT was 6th on the Twins in PAs in 2023. Is a 92 OPS+ for your 6th most used hitter really a success? Or is it just better than what the vast majority of us expected and "good" relative to his contract? Both of those players played really good defense which is absolutely a thing they need to get credit for, but I don't know if I'd call them any sort of great success stories. They're just successful when it comes to the Twins complete lack of ability to produce a single guy who can be a usable glove in CF or hit well enough to claim the 1B spot. They were helpful in that they didn't completely bomb and provided a floor stabilizing presence for their 1 year here. But they didn't provide any sort of great help when it comes to possibly winning a World Series. They didn't raise the ceiling. They simply didn't crater the floor. Which certainly has value. But it isn't a team building strategy that's going to lead to a real shot at a championship parade marching down any Minnesota streets anytime soon.
  22. chpettit19
    Willi Castro has 332 innings in 44 games in right field in the majors. This isn't a surprising development in the least. Harrison Bader is going to play a lot of games for the Twins. Target Field may have a bigger left field than right field, but not every park does. And they play half their games in other parks. Bader will get time in all 3 outfield spots. How they choose to mix and match 1B/DH and cOF/DH will determine how much time he gets.
  23. chpettit19
    That's about 3 runs a week between having the best of the best OF defense and the worst of the worst. About 1 run a week between having the worst of the worst and an average defense. It's effect on wins and losses is dependent on when the outs were missed. 2 outs nobody on? Nobody out bases loaded? Defense absolutely matters, just not as much as offense. You don't want negative defenders all over the place, but if you have an average defense you're doing just fine. And a below average defense doesn't kill you if they're also offensive weapons. And a great defense without offense isn't going to win games (go ask a Mariners fan about that one).
  24. chpettit19
    I'm not sure why Miranda is on this list. Has there ever been a question about him making the roster? Hasn't he had the 1B/3B/DH rotation spot locked up the entire time? The other 5 are the ones fighting for the last opening day jobs. By my count there have been 11 spots locked up since they signed Bader and France. The 5 non-Miranda guys on this list are fighting for the last 2. I think Keirsey has the longest odds and likely has almost no shot at making the roster without multiple injuries to others. The other 4 are fighting over the last 2 spots. Hard to handicap it at this point as none are running away with it and none are completely blowing their chances. The final roster decision probably comes down to where they feel comfortable playing each of them and how they can make the pieces fit in the platoon and rest heavy style they prefer.
  25. chpettit19
    The best Batting Run Value in baseball last year was Aaron Judge at 97. The worst was Brandon Drury at -25. The best Fielding Run Value in baseball last year was Patrick Bailey at 22. The worst was Nick Castellanos at -14. The best Baserunning Run Value in baseball last year was Corbin Carroll at 12. The worst was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at -6. These are absolutely not exact science numbers that should be used as proof positive of anything, but the people at Baseball Savant and Statcast are real smart and have a lot of really high-tech gadgets they're using to put this stuff together. I think they're good numbers to give rough ideas on how valuable each phase of the game is to offensive players, though. I'll leave it to you and others to decide how much weight everyone feels needs to be given to defense vs offense. I'll mention that the best Outs Above Average in baseball last year was Andres Gimenez with 21. The worst was CJ Abrams at -17. If we just do outfield like this article is talking about the best was Jacob Young at 19 and worst was Bryan Reynolds at -13. That's a 32-out difference between the best and the worst outfield defenders in baseball last year. I believe the MLB season is about 27 weeks long. So, just over 1 out per week difference between the very best and the very worst. Call it 3 and a half outs, or round up to 4 if you want, per week for an outfield of 3 of Bryan Reynolds vs an outfield of 3 of Jacob Young. Do what you want with this info.
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