chpettit19

Signing Bader doesn't have any reflection on things in-season? What are you even talking about? They're tied together. Signing him means he's going to play in-season, right? And him playing in-season effects the rest of the roster, right? What a nonsense argument. The season is what I care about, yes. I don't know what else any of us are here discussing if it isn't how the Twins do in-season.

Why isn't he? Because they don't have the money to pay him. My argument was that they could've cleared more money before February 5th, and still could've cleared it today. Alonso isn't walking in for 6.25 mil, but he might for 24. And if not him then you could've gotten Kim and Diaz for the Paddack and Vazquez money and still signed Bader. It's "sad" because you're arguing against what you want me to be saying and not what I am saying. If they knew they had 145+ mil in payroll from the start it changes things from if they only had 135. It's only "the past" because they've now allocated this money. There's no rule saying they couldn't have cleared this money today and offered it to Alonso or Bregman. I think celebrating 1 non-needle-moving signing on Feb 5th after having bashed this team all offseason as a doomed team with no chance is "sad." You've been calling them a below .500 team all offseason but now you're excited because they signed Bader? Get out of here with that. This doesn't take them from below .500 to a division champ. I'm glad you like Bader. He'll help the defense for sure. But don't act like this is some needle moving signing. Nobody should argue that.

Trading isn't the only option for removing a player from your roster. The point is they don't drop underperforming vets in any way, not just trade. Do you think they'll trade Bader at the deadline if they're in the mix for winning the Central? Do we have any historical evidence that they'd do that with a veteran position player, especially one making more than a couple mil?

Trading isn't the only way to get a guy off your roster. The point is that they will roster him all year no matter what. And they moved Nelson because he had value AND because it was a lost season. You need both of those conditions to be met. If the Twins are competing in the central they aren't trading Bader at the deadline.

No, that isn't at all what I said. I don't want them signing these at-best average free agents that they won't move on from when they end up being significantly worse than average. I want them to bring in talent. And when that talent isn't as good as what they expected I want them to move on from it and try somebody who may actually be good. None of that at all means I "should hope they never, ever sign a free agent." That's a weak, strawman argument not based on anything I said. I don't want a collection of $2-8 million vets that they won't replace when their prospects could/should be able to perform to the same level while saving them millions to spend on better vets.

Nobody is acting like 6.25 mil is sending the Pohlads anywhere. Yes, I am "worried about" where they spend their money. They're now, in my opinion, spending $23.75 mil on 3 players that don't move the needle on winning as many baseball games as possible in 2025. This isn't a new stance for me, or others, on this. I'd much rather have 1 guy for $24 mil than 3 guys. It's not just the 6.25 allocated to Bader, it's the $23.75 allocated to Paddack, Vazquez, and Bader instead of someone like Bregman or Alonso who are actual needle movers. It's floor vs ceiling. Those 3 help maintain the floor while providing 0 help on the ceiling. I don't care about the floor anymore, I want ceiling. If they have had mid-140s worth of payroll available to them from the very beginning of the offseason I think this has been a complete failure of an offseason. Give me Ha-Seong Kim instead of Bader and Paddack. They had far more avenues of team improvement open to them if this is where they knew the payroll could be all offseason. Falvey improved the team compared to what it was yesterday, maybe. But he didn't improve it over what it could have been overall with the money they apparently have available to spend.

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

Trade Paddack and Vazquez while using this up to 8 mil to give Alonso or Bregman the Correa Special 3 year deal with 2 opt outs. Up to 8.25 mil for Bader?! They've played broke all winter but are now pushing the payroll over 140? Either trade(s) are coming (Paddack, Vazquez, and/or Castro), the front office wasted the entire offseason playing broke for no reason, or an announcement about new ownership is coming soon because they've already greenlit more spending.

I'm pretty sure every team has a backup center fielder in some way, shape, or form. It's how Bader stays in the majors, actually. You can dump Buxton and replace him with a different player for up to 15 mil a year, but then you're dropping the production during the 80ish games he'd play pretty significantly and still having a Bader or MAT type backup anyways because you can't (or shouldn't) just put any guy out in center.

He has a significantly better glove than Margot, so I'll give him credit for at least bringing something to the table. But, overall, it's another uninspiring "floor" move that adds nothing to the ceiling. At least that's how I see it.

I like that he brings defense, but he can't hit. He's the move we all knew was coming, right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Larnach and Wallner. But his splits last year were actually reverse, and he wasn't good against either hand. He put up insane numbers against lefties in 2023, but 2022 was reverse as well and bad against both. 2021 was the last year he actually hit well, but his splits were reverse that year, too. 2019, also reverse splits. 2017 and 2018 he was much better against lefties than righties. Overall, he hasn't showed he can really hit either hand consistently. 4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons were reverse splits. So, he's a questionable platoon option to start with. He's all glove. And the Twins certainly need more glove. But I'm not excited about this move.

Just signed Bader. Think Canha is probably off the table now.

Count me amongst the "no's" on Canha. The floor is built. Stop trying to add to the floor. Add to the ceiling. If you can't add to the ceiling with a FA then don't sign one just to sign one. Make a trade or see what you have in the young guys. The central has gotten more competitive because of young guys. Cleveland, Detroit, and KC's offenses are built on young guys. Santana in Cleveland, the corpse of Hunter Renfroe in KC, and nobody in Detroit. Those are the over 30 vets those teams have brought in (on the hitter side). Renfroe was a disaster for KC last year while Santana had the bounce back here. Detroit brought in Gleyber at the age of 28, and their over-30 vet they're looking at is Alex Bregman at the age of 31. Those teams caught, and passed, the Twins last year because they let their young guys go. And they have more coming. They let them take their lumps and figure it out. Helman, Keirsey, Martin, etc. don't have super high ceilings by any means, but they're no lower than Canha, Grichuk, Bader, or any of these other tail-end vets. Emma and Keaschal have significantly higher ceilings. If the Twins were willing to ever cut vet hitters I'd be less against bringing them in. But they aren't. So just stop bringing them in and ride or die with the youth you have. If you can't develop your own talent you're doomed anyway. Blame it on the budget if you want, but it's time to just let the kids play over bringing in these guys who's best, realistic hope is to be average.

Lewis wasn't a no brainer. He wasn't at all the top prospect. Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Wright, and Brendan McKay were all pretty universally considered better options to go #1. Lewis was not a super well received pick that year because it was seen as him being just an under-slot deal to save money for later picks. Parada, Jung, Collier, and Neto were all reasonable picks at 8 in 2022. Turns out Neto would've likely been the better college SS to take. So, no, Lee wasn't a "no-brainer." They had options. Jenkins was the clear and obvious no brainer. Even your exclusions are inaccurate because only Jenkins was a "no-brainer." You want to include 2nd round? Fine. In order: Landon Leach (HS pitcher), Ryan Jeffers (college catcher), Matt Canterino (college pitcher), Alerick Soularie (college outfielder), Steve Hajjar (college pitcher), Tanner Schobel (actually comp-B pick, didn't have a 2nd rounder that year, but college shortstop), Luke Keaschall (college 2B), Billy Amick (college 3B). Amick is a bad defender so maybe you can count him? Otherwise there isn't a single "unathletic 1B/DH" type in there as Soularie, Schobel, and Keaschall were all athletic picks. Of course where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick, but your argument was that they drafted "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Short stops are not "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Almost every round 1 pick is bat driven. Bat is the priority that early in the draft because if you can't hit you won't make it to the majors. And Cavaco wasn't a bat 1st pick. He was an "athlete" pick. Literally the opposite of what you're claiming. So it was 4 out of 13 picks (if you add Larnach and the super athletic Wallner) that have, as you said, "plugged the system with 1B/DH types." Even though 2 of those guys are starting corner outfielders in the majors. And another is one of the best DHs in the league. So, yes, Rooker is a bat only player, but he's a star. And Wallner and Larnach are establishing themselves as above average hitters (maybe even a star hitter in Wallner). What a complete and utter disaster that has "plugged the system!" Your claim was that since their 1B/DH guys failed they have a hole at 1B, but now you want to change it to "bat first guys" to try to exclude Larnach and Wallner even though they're actively filling needs on the MN Twins team. You didn't look up who they actually drafted and were wrong in your statements. It happens. Don't move the goalposts now. You were wrong about who the Twins draft early and even tried to change the narrative on Lewis' selection so that he wouldn't be counted and called Lee a no brainer even though there were plenty of other options that would've been taken just as well had they selected them.

1st round picks under Falvey: '17: Lewis, CB-A: Rooker '18: Larnach '19: Cavaco, CB-A: Wallner '20: Sabato '21: Petty, CB-A: Miller '22: Lee '23: Jenkins, CB-A: Soto '24: Culpepper, Debarge Sabato is the only "unathletic 1B/DH" pick they've made in the first or competitive balance A rounds. Rooker is not unathletic, but he's bad defensively, so I guess you can call it 2 out of 13 picks. They've drafted 6 shortstops, 3 OFers, and 2 pitchers. Your assessment of their top draft picks is wildly off.

That would need to be accounted for in the Frawley Factor.

Now there's something we need a stat for. What are the odds of that?!

Emma is their only realistic shot at it this year. I'd love to see him get an opening day job in LF and let him work through his struggles (like Merrill and Chourio as @tony&rodney pointed out). He's the kind of player that can win this kind of award if things click for him. The other 2 aren't going to get enough of a chance. And if they win it they won't be getting any extra picks from them as they won't be up in time. Dream scenario is Emma wins it this year. Jenkins debuts in September and then wins it in 2026. We can dream, can't we?

The press release from the Twins from 2 weeks ago says Tucker Frawley is their minor league catching coordinator. This TD article by Seth also lists him as the catching coordinator. Did he switch teams in the last 2 weeks or is there bad info out there on who the Twins catching coordinator?

That was last year's prediction. They have them at 81 wins this year.

So, I get Mookie Betts (has had 3 100 RBI seasons in 11 seasons), Shohei Ohtani (2 100 RBI seasons in 7 years), Jose Altuve (never had a 100 RBI season in 14 seasons), Acuna Jr (2 100 RBI seasons in 7 seasons), Soto (3 100 RBI seasons in 7 seasons), Judge (3 100 RBI seasons in 9 seasons), Yordan Alvarez (1 100 RBI season in 6 years), Ketel Marte (never had a 100 RBI season in 10 seasons), and Francisco Lindor (1 100 RBI season in 10 seasons)? I'll take my chances with those guys against whatever guys you want to take. Seasons with 100 runs in a season for that list: Betts: 6 of 11 Ohtani: 3 of 7 Altuve: 4 of 14 Acuna: 2 of 7 Soto: 3 of 7 Judge: 3 of 9 Alvarez: 0 of 6 Marte: 0 if 10 Lindor: 4 of 10 What are our criteria here? Cuz I just listed off 9 of the best hitters on the planet and only Mookie Betts has scored more than 100 runs or driven in more than 100 runs more than half of his seasons.

Martin Perez hasn't been much better with anyone else outside of his first year in Texas that's an extreme outlier. He had a 2.89 ERA that year. He hasn't had a single other year with an ERA under 4.50 since 2016. His FIP his year with us was actually his second best since 2016. He's basically been the same guy outside of his extreme outlier 2022 season.

Kyle Higashioka debuted in Swanson's first year in MN. Doesn't get credit for him. Jose Trevino played 4 years in Texas before he went to NY. Doesn't get credit for him. Ben Rortvedt debuted with MN 2 years after Swanson left and didn't play with NY until 2 years after that. Hard to credit Swanson for all of him, but he certainly played a role early. Austin Wells developed under different guys because Swanson doesn't work with their minor league catchers in NY, but yes, he was developed during Swanson's time there. Gary Sanchez was, and is, a horrible defender behind the plate and Swanson had 3 years with him. Austin Romine had been playing in the majors since 2011 so Swanson really doesn't get credit for him. Those are the guys the Yankees have had at catcher since Swanson took over. "One of the best for producing quality catchers" is based on what exactly? They've debuted 1 catcher since he's been there. Austin Wells. You just make stuff up without any actual proof of anything. They don't have any MLB ready, or close to MLB ready, catching prospects. Where do you get this idea that they're "one of the best for producing quality catchers" because of Swanson? Ryan Jeffers was in the system for 1 year under Swanson. Mitch Garver had half a year. Rortvedt was in the system for the full 2 years under Swanson, though. So pointing to those 3 isn't some great point you're making. And those are 3 catchers developed by the Twins since 2017 when Swanson got his first job in pro baseball. The Yankees have developed Austin Wells in that same time frame. Nobody else. Everybody else debuted before he was in NY. So who's "one of the best for producing quality catchers?" The reason Wells is mentioned in the article about Swanson is because he was drafted because he could slug and the Yankees are hoping he can stick at catcher. He's a left handed version of Jeffers or Garver. The Twins hired Swanson in the first place! What a weird argument. "The Yankees hired this guy because they care about catching but the Twins don't even though they are the ones who discovered and hired him to his first job with a major league organization." The Yankees poached him because he was good. Just like the Twins hired him in the first place because he was good. The Twins have a lot of guys who have the baseball smarts to aid in scouting, drafting, and developing catching. What a nonsense argument. But really what this comes down to is you just making stuff up. The Twins have debuted 3 MLB catchers since the great Tanner Swanson took his first MLB job. Should probably only count it as 2 since Garver debuted that year. The Yankees have produced 1. With an 18 year old A ball player as their only other top 20 system prospect (Edgleen Perez). They had another top 30 prospect who played in A+ ball last year who was rule 5 eligible and nobody claimed him despite the supposed greatness of the Yankees catcher development system. They have no more meaningful catcher depth than the Twins. The catchers on their 40-man roster are Wells, J.C Escarra, and Jesus Rodriguez. Escarra is a 30 year old with no MLB experience and has played 2700+ minor league innings at 1B compared to 506 innings at catcher (Mickey Gasper in pin stripes). He's a bat first player who can't field the catcher position anywhere near how you want. Jesus Rodriguez is a 23 year old with 23 AA games under his belt and more playing time at non-catcher positions than catcher in the minors. He's also a bat first player. Your complaints about the Twins are actually complaints about the Yankees who draft for bat and hope they can make the guy a defensive catcher. Worked with Wells, so they have 1 guy on their list. You're just making stuff up. The Yankees have been no better than the Twins and have the same strategy you claim is the reason the Twins fail.

Tucker Frawley was both the infield and catcher coordinator at the time of that interview. I told you that. Now he's just the catcher. He was giving examples that people could relate to and infielders are easier to do that with. The article was about development in general. You shouldn't be getting anything about his desire to develop great catchers from that. What a terribly weird response. You don't think Hank Conger wants the Twins catchers to be great? How do you expect him to keep his job? Of course he wants the Twins catchers to be great, but his role isn't drafting and developing so you shouldn't be getting the feeling that he's heavily invested there because that isn't his job. Swanson is splitting duties. Conger is splitting duties. With their respective major league teams. The teams also have heads of scouting and head of development people. I promise you Tanner Swanson is not scouting high school and college kids during the season. They have other guys who do that because it's an in person thing. As for your Google pull, wikipedia doesn't say one single thing about what Swanson's role looks like so that's not a great source. The quote from The Athletic about working with Wells is "The Yankees will also rely on Swanson to help continue to develop Austin Wells,...Wells has worked with Swanson, minor-league catching coordinator Aaron Gershenfeld and defensive coach Aaron Bossi to improve his blocking and arm strength, and the Yankees believe Wells has a chance to stay behind the plate in the majors." The core of the article is actually talking about his work with the major league catchers. Maybe don't trust Google without actually going and reading the sources. The AI response on him being a catching specialist is incredibly basic and likely is from the fact that he used to have a catching academy before becoming the Twins minor league catching coordinator. He's a catching coordinator, of course he's a catching specialist! I just gave you the quote the AI used to come up with the Wells input. The statement is about working with Wells at the major league level to continue his development there after he worked with Gershenfeld and Bossi in the minors. "Swanson likely provides" is not the ringing endorsement you're trying to make it. They have traits and skills they look for in their catchers that they think can teach up once they get in the system. Just like the Twins have traits and skills they look for in pitchers that they think they can teach up to add velo once they're in the system. Just like you misuse your CERA wikipedia quote from Bill James, you're misusing this Google AI pull because you don't check the actual sources and the context of the statements. Bill James is talking about comparing catchers across the league by using CERA. Not catchers on the same team with darn near equal sample sizes with the same pitching staffs. That is why CERA isn't a go to stat. Because there's too many variables outside the catcher's control. You can't compare catchers ERA from the Mariners and their league best pitching and catchers ERA from the Rockies and their league worst pitching and say which catchers are better. But when you're comparing 2 catchers with the same staff and even sample sizes it is a useful tool. As Bill James, Keith Woolner, and Craig Wright have said for decades and new analysts say now. Hank Conger does not draft or develop anyone. Is he part of conversations about catching? Of course he is. He didn't join the Twins until 2022 (December 10, 2021 if you want to get exact). Even if he was running everything that'd be 2 seasons worth of development from him. Another reason you shouldn't just blindly trust Google AI is because it'll tell you Hank Conger was the Twins catching coach in 2016. Hank Conger had a .571 OPS in 49 games for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2016. Quit using wikipedia and Google AI to simply confirm your biases without getting the context. The same person who oversees catcher drafting isn't the same one who oversees catcher development. They're different people. Different groups of people, actually. They work together, likely with Conger's input, and Falvey's, and 20 other people's, but it isn't one person. It's a team of people. Each minor league team has their own set of coaches as well. Think through what you're saying. The Twins have numerous different teams at numerous levels. There isn't a person solely responsible for this stuff. You need coaching staffs at your AAA, AA, A+, A and complex leagues who all work on developing catchers. You need a scouting staff made up of numerous people both in America and in Latin America to scout. You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how MLB organizations work and what these roles look like. Tanner Swanson and Hank Conger are not scouting and developing players. They simply aren't. It's literally impossible. It's a team of people and they have a voice in the room in the offseason and spring training, but once the season starts and the actual scouting and developing is happening those guys are with their major league teams doing multiple jobs. Every team works this way. It's impossible to be an MLB coach and run scouting and development. Sean Johnson is the Director of Amateur Scouting. He runs the scouting for catchers and the draft for the Twins. Kevin Goldstein is the Director of International Scouting. He has his own team of scouts for international scouting. The scouting isn't even all one person. Deron Johnson is the Senior Scouting Advisor. Drew MacPhail is the Director of Player Development. He has 2 assistant directors (Tommy Bergjans and Frankie Padulo). Tucker Frawley is the closest answer to what you want. And he wants the Twins to develop great catchers. Otherwise he gets fired. Tucker Frawley's job this year is only Minor League Catching Coordinator. He's not in charge of drafting them, but he's in charge of their development in the closest way to what you're asking.

I didn't say Keirsey would've debuted at 24. I acknowledged he'd had injuries early in his career. He played fewer than 50 games that season due to injuries. If the 2021, 2022, or 2023 Royals weren't rebuilding Isbel would've had a harder time getting on their roster. If the Twins were rebuilding Keirsey would've likely gotten real MLB time here last year. I don't think it's controversial in the least to suggest that the organization you're in has a very real impact on your chances to get real MLB playing time. Kyle Isbel debuted on April 1st, 2021. That was the 2nd game of the season for the Royals. He was on their opening day roster. He'd never even played in AAA at that point. In fact, hadn't played above A+ ball where he had an 86 wRC+ before he debuted. (2020 in between) Jarrod Dyson was also an outfielder on that opening day roster. Erick Pena, Nick Loftin (utility player), Seuly Matias, Tyler Gentry, Darryl Collins, and Lucius Fox (utility player) were the other OF prospects on their MLB top 30 prospect list. They were 18, 22 (in A+ ball that season), 22 (in A+ ball), 22 (in A+ ball), 19, and 23 (in AAA) years old respectively. Isbel's AAA performance didn't get him a chance because he'd never played in AAA before he debuted. A horrible roster with horrible prospects to compete with got him his chance. Because the organization you're in matters. Yes, Isbel has some of the best reactions in baseball, but also takes some of the worst routes. If Keirsey is a balance of those he's the same kind of fielder. I watched a lot of Keirsey with the Saints (in person and on milb.tv). He's not a star there, but he's a good defender. Isbel isn't a star fielder, but he's a good defender. Neither is PCA or Brenton Doyle or Buxton in his prime, but neither is Margot or Martin either. Maybe Isbel is slightly better, but Keirsey can defend. I wouldn't project him higher than 1 WAR either, because he isn't going to play that much. Could he be a 1.5 WAR player in 136 games like the range Isbel is in? I think so. But I don't want either of them playing 136 games in CF for me. I hope Keirsey is passed up by Emma or Keaschal quickly if there's a need for 136 starts in CF for the Twins.