chpettit19

If he's as good as I think, and we all hope, he is he should be getting much more than a cup of coffee in the bigs. He shouldn't spend half a season in AA. He shouldn't have to go back there at all. 59 games and 267 PAs is more than enough to know he's concurred that level. He's back and playing already. The injury shouldn't mean he has to go back to a level he's concurred when the injury isn't a concern anymore. Guys debut in the majors with fewer PAs than that at AA. I'm not saying he should be on the opening day roster (unless he's clearly the best option during spring), but he's proven he's better than AA. He should start in AAA and be ready to take the first opening at 2B, 1B, or any OF spot. Most definitely shouldn't be spending half a season in AA.

I think he's in the race with Emma and Jenkins for CF for 80+ games a year when Buxton is hurt. 2B may well be his best position, but he can run and could certainly steal an OF spot depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out over the next couple years.

Who are the players? Kirilloff from the day he was drafted had most scouts and analysts saying he'd be an above average, maybe even gold glove, 1B if they'd put him there. But the Twins had holes in the OF so they bounced him back and forth. Who were the other players? Played in the majors where? 1B? Were they 30-year-old journeymen who weren't ever going to be a real part of the Twins? Tomas Telis, Damek Tomscha, Sherman Johnson, Jose Miranda, Roberto Pena, Willians Astudillo, Zander Wiel, Caleb Hamilton, Travis Blankenhorn, Brent Rooker, Ryan Jeffers. Those are the 11 guys who played 1B for the Saints in 2021. "Eight played in the majors" is missing all the important context. Jeffers is a catcher who was getting extra ABs by playing some 1B because he wasn't going to catch everyday. Rooker is a worse defender than Larnach or Wallner and they were trying to find any place he could play on the field. Blankenhorn is a utility player who only played in the majors because he was a utility guy. Same with Willians. Miranda was a corner IFer so, yeah, he played a lot at 1B. Telis was a catcher/1B trying to claw his way back to the bigs. Outside of Miranda, Jeffers, and Rooker none of those guys were players with any real chance of being part of the Twins future. Miranda was a corner IFer, Jeffers was a catcher, and Rooker was the least good cOFer between him, Larnach, and Wallner. That's why they didn't play 1B. I never said everyone can play a passable 1B. In fact, I said I didn't know if they could, but plenty of guys get placed there. I didn't mean "dumping grounds" as some sort of disrespectful statement, and I think you know that. Pujols and Cabrera are 1st ballot Hall of Famers who got dumped at 1B because they weren't the best options for their teams at other positions. I listed them and called them "some of the biggest stars the game has ever seen." But 1B is the bottom of the defensive spectrum and it's where teams dump guys who get pushed off other spots by better fielders.

Who were the 8 or 9 guys that played there? Minor league filler? Even worse defenders than Larnach and Wallner? Larnach and Wallner were high picks and were going to get every opportunity to earn a job in the Twins outfield. People complain nonstop here that the Twins need to put guys in the position they're going to play in the majors and let them perfect it. That's what the Twins did with these 2. And it's what they should have done as the Twins outfield has had openings for years and getting these guys prepared to fill them was the obvious decision. But when the landscape of the team changes players need to move. It happens all the time. Go look at the Padres' starting lineup and see how many guys changed positions in the majors. Shoot, their starting CFer had never played off the dirt until spring training last year and they handed him an opening day job as a 20-year-old in a new position. The Twins didn't need to move Larnach and Wallner in the minors, but if/when Emma and Jenkins (and even Keashall is an OF possibility) arrive Larnach and Wallner may not be the best options at their positions and they'd have to move. Fernando Tatis Jr moved from SS to RF in the majors despite never having played the OF in his minor league career. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols came up as LFers and got moved around to multiple positions (RF, 3B, and 1B) as young players before moving over to 1B permanently. Mookie Betts played 36 innings in RF in AAA before moving to RF at the major league level because of the makeup of the Red Sox (he wasn't displacing Pedroia at 2B). I don't know if Julien, Larnach, Wallner, or any of the minor league guys I named can be studs, average, passable, or what at 1B, but 1B has long been the dumping ground for slow defenders with big bats that get pushed out of corner OF spots. MLB players get moved onto and off the dirt all the time. Including some of the biggest stars the game as ever seen. Bryce Harper moved from RF to 1B. Spencer Steer has moved all over for Cinci, including 1B despite just 17 innings there in the minors. Moving random guys to 1B is something every team does. And have been doing forever. Moving players around as needed to give them the best team they can is something every team does. And have been doing forever. Larnach and Wallner are athletic dudes. I'd bet they can learn to play 1B at a passable level.

I'm not all that worried about 1B. If Miranda can stay healthy I think he hits. He's hit very well in the majors whenever he's healthy. Whether or not he can stay healthy is my only concern for him (super weird on this roster, I know). I really liked France a couple years ago and actually stated on this very site that I thought the Twins should go get him last year as a good bounce back candidate. He didn't bounce back. Was it just the heal or is he truly in decline? I don't like the low value veteran contracts the Twins hand out as a core part of their team building strategy, but if France can bounce back some he's a decent enough player with a ceiling of really good bat if he totally comes back. Wouldn't bet on that, but the possibility is there. As for the other options/prospects, pick a player. They're all options. It's the bottom of the defensive spectrum. No, I'm not saying that that means it doesn't matter or defense doesn't matter or that it's super easy to be good there or whatever, but it is the easiest defensive position to fill. Meaning you need the least amount of athletic ability/tools to fill it. You don't need to be fast or have a good arm or any of the stuff you need (or at least really want) at the other positions. I don't like the idea of Lewis moving over there at all. Waste of his athleticism and arm (just fix his throwing motion and get him more accurate with his throws). Don't like Keaschall, Castro, Correa, Buxton, Emma, Jenkins, etc. types there either. Waste of all their athleticism and skills. But pick any of our many questionable defenders and put them there. Larnach or Wallner or Julien, anyone. And if you've filled the other 6 spots (non-catchers) with the athletic types with good arms then put the 7th athletic guy at 1B. Not having a big time 1B prospect isn't terrible. It generally just means you don't have a guy with a huge bat and no real defensive skills (or he's a slow lefty thrower you don't want in the OF). The Twins have some big bat prospects that could be plopped there if they wanted to, but, despite the cries of mismanagement on this site, moving guys down the spectrum as they advance through the system and the needs of your team change and their ability to field other spots becomes more clear is what every MLB team does because it's the smart thing to do. Maybe Kala'i Rosario or Rayne Doncon or Billy Amick or Gabriel Gonzalez have things click with their bats and are the 1B of the future because they aren't good enough defenders elsewhere to beat out the other guys on the depth chart. Every prospect that can hit is a 1B prospect.

Every team focuses on launch angle, exit velo, and pulling the ball. Every. Single. One. That doesn't mean that's all they want their players to do and doesn't mean that's all guys are trying to do. Julien is not a dead pull hitter by any means. That spray chart doesn't show him "not able to pull some pitches," it shows him not wanting to. The left center gap is his target most of the time. This is Isaac Paredes' spray chart. This is a guy just looking to pull the ball who is "not able to pull some pitches." They're very different approaches.

Which righties do you think Rocco is going to sit to let either of his lefties hit against lefties? Even if Julien makes the team, too. Which righty is going to sit against lefties in order to get any of those lefties PAs against lefties?

They tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 to avoid this all together but couldn't come to an agreement. It'll be interesting to see how things work out with him in a month, but I'd say the odds are better that Philly demands a high price for him and he's returned to them over there being a deal worked out.

As for Martin becoming a defensive "star," I don't see it. He just doesn't read the ball well. More reps can certainly improve that, but, as others have pointed out, he's had a lot of experience in the outfield over his college and minor league career. He can certainly still improve, but to expect him to reach "star" status is a bridge (way) too far for me. I hope he improves and can be about an average fielder which would give him a solid chance of having a nice career as a (likely journeyman) utility player. But getting beyond average is a monumental ask. I'm not as against the moving around of players defensively as some here, but I do blame the Twins for him having to improve more now in the outfield if they're truly just moving him there more or less full time. They spent way too long running him out at SS when he had no shot of ever sticking there. Should've moved him to CF as soon as they got him and let him build his experience there. Wasting all those innings at SS was a massive mistake that I'd love to hear the real thought process behind.

Not to mention that there were 4 hitters with at least 200 PAs in all of baseball with an OBP of .400 last year. They're names I think people will recognize. Judge, Soto, Tucker, and Yelich. There were only 18 players in all of baseball with at least 200 PAs and an OBP of .375 or higher. Only 46 guys at .350 or higher. That's 1.5 guys per team with just a .350 OBP. All but 2 (an injured Acuna Jr and Mike Tauchman) had a slug of at least .380. Martin slugged .363 in the minors. No MLB pitcher fears him and his ability to draw walks against guys with actual control and no fear of him is going to be insanely limited. He had 21 games in the AFL where he managed to OPS .800 and 28 games in AAA last year where he got to that number. Otherwise he's never had an OPS of .800 in the minors. I loved Martin coming out of college and was thrilled when they got him in the Berrios trade. But he's never learned to impact the ball enough to be a threat. He's not getting anywhere near a .400 OBP or .800 OPS. That's suggesting he'll be a better hitter in the majors than he's ever been in the minors. Not a lot of examples of guys doing that out there.

Julien has flaws, but being a pull hitter isn't one of them. He went the other way at an above average rate both years. His super steep VBA forces him to. This is not the spray chart of a guy just trying to pull fastballs.

90th percentile exit velocity isn't saying he's in the 90th percentile, it's the 90th percentile for his personal exit velos.

Take his VBA (vertical bat angle) from 45-50 to 30-35 and he'll be alright. Easier said than done, but many in the industry believe the Orioles concentrate pretty hard on VBA and being able to adjust your swing to pitch locations so hopefully Mr. Borgschulte can help Julien with that and get him back closer to what he was in 2023.

I'm obviously excited to see what the big 3 bats can do and if they can all debut this year, and I love Payton Eeles, but Brandon Winokur is the bat I'm most excited to follow this season. He has the chance to skyrocket up prospect lists if he can continue to adjust and put up some big numbers this year. He's nowhere near as fast (few are) as Elly, but he's in the mold of Elly De La Cruz, Aaron Judge, Oneil Cruz, and James Wood as the super tall, super athlete. No, I'm not predicting he's going to be any of those guys, but that's the type of player he is with being such an incredible athlete at that size. He's the guy I'll watch most this summer.

The grading system used was the 20-80 scouting scale. It's THE way people grade baseball players. From there it's a matter of opinion what each player's grade is. The list provided wasn't about making an exact point about each of their grades but just showing that 40-man roster spots, options, and Rule 5 status matters when it comes to 26-man roster decisions. I don't agree with bean's grades (and based on previous posts from that particular poster I'm quite positive they don't agree either as they are nowhere near that high on Pablo), but that isn't the point. The point is that simply placing the 5 starters you feel are likely best in the major league rotation on opening day with no care for the consequences of what that does to guys like Paddack and Castellano who can't just be optioned has real impact on the roster over the course of 162 games (and hopefully some playoff games tacked on). Every major league team needs to take these things into consideration. I think the Twins get crazy with it, but going crazy the other way with it isn't the answer either. There's a balance and sometimes guys make the roster when they shouldn't early on because that's just how the system is set up.

The last 3 years have been driven by new owners. That's the point. He wasn't making the key decisions he was just signing off. We've come full circle so I'm going to bow out now. You asked why we should think he'd drive the Twins into the ground and a couple of us have given you very good reasons why. He's been an awful owner who's overseen one of the worst franchises in the 4 major sports. Feel free to ignore that because they drafted Ant and he's allowed ARod and Lore to make the decisions lately while just signing off. He's been a significantly worse owner than the Pohlads. And that's saying something. His smartest move was to get out of the way and sell the team. The exact same thing we're asking of the Pohlads. We can only hope the results of the Pohlads selling will be as good as the results of Taylor selling.

I didn't gloss over, I stated plainly that they got that right. You've glossed over the entirety of the Wolves history under Taylor. Taylor approving it is far less important than the other 2 being smart enough to target the right person. The Twins got Mauer right. And Morneau. And Hunter. And Santana. And so many others. You're hyper focusing on a recent upswing that's based mostly on a hire that was hand picked by the new owners and not Taylor while ignoring the previous 2 and a half decades of Taylor getting nearly every decision wrong. Flip Saunders and listening to ARod and Lore (who were brand new to the league and still smarter than him) are the only things he's done right. In 30 years. That's a real bad track record. The Wolves getting Ant and KG right doesn't outweigh the rest of Taylor's rule. He's been objectively awful. Suggesting otherwise is revisionist history based on, apparently, 1 great pick recently. Him buying the Twins is the nightmare scenario.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33971725/sources-minnesota-timberwolves-hire-executive-tim-connelly-5-year-deal-worth-40m-includes-ownership-equity "Connelly has discussed the job extensively with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in the past week" https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3326241/2022/05/23/tim-connelly-wolves/ "Connelly met with Timberwolves minority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez in recent days" "That eye for talent and development, coupled with a reputation as being an outgoing and gregarious leader, piqued the interest of Lore and Rodriguez. They got things started in the negotiations, showing an urgency to build on the success the Timberwolves had in their first season in the ownership group. Within 12 hours of their initial meeting with Connelly, they presented him with an offer to let him know they were serious about moving forward. The next step was getting final approval from Taylor." "Lore and Rodriguez have been determined to change the narrative around the Timberwolves and inject some energy into a team that hasn’t spent much time on the national radar. One of their first initiatives, dating back to their arrival last summer, was to ensure they had a top flight lead executive for the president of basketball operations." I can keep going, but it's been well publicized that Lore and ARod lead the charge on bringing in Connelly. Taylor had to give the final sign off, but, make no mistake, ARod and Lore lead that decision. I'm not revising any history. Yes, the Wolves got Ant right. And they got KG right. And in between they had the worst winning percentage in the history of the 4 major North American sports. Pretending Taylor has been anything but a near complete disaster for the 30 years he's owned the team is revisionist history. The Wolves are 1073-1368 under Taylor. Winning percentage of 43.96%. Since KG left they're 551-856. Winning percentage of 39.16%. The Wolves have 13 winning seasons under Taylor's ownership. 17 losing seasons. 13 seasons with a winning percentage under 40%. In baseball terms, that's a 64 or 65 win team. In the same time period, the Twins have had 4 seasons of 65 or fewer wins and we all are awfully disappointed in the way the Twins have performed. Glen Taylor has been an absolutely horrid owner. Replacing the Pohlads with Taylor would not be an improvement in any way, shape, or form. He's been an awful owner and there's no way around that.

This is actually the exact proof of why we shouldn't want him to buy the Twins. He didn't do that stuff. ARod and Lore did. It's the proof that ownership matters. He continually hired completely inept front office personnel (outside of Saunders) and destroyed that team for over a decade. They had the worst winning percentage in North American sports history just a few years ago before new owners started making decisions and they were immediately successful. The Twolves situation is why we should want Taylor nowhere near the Twins.

I'll get Google AI on it to get to the bottom of this.

I don't believe Lewis has ever had TJS and je does have a better arm than Brooks Lee. It's just not that accurate sometimes.

They definitely don't agree to the number on the first day. If he really was so upset with the contract he would've negotiated all the way up until his arbitration date and not just signed the deal at the first opportunity. There's no reason at all to believe Royce is upset with his contract. (Well, beyond just the annoyance I think all players have with the system in general to some extent)

Julien's problem has always been his inability to hit non-fastballs at anywhere close to an acceptable level because his swing was way too steep. His approach got a little off last year, but it wasn't much different than the year before. The difference was that the league figured out that he couldn't hit anything that moved so they stopped throwing him fastballs and started throwing him breaking stuff that he doesn't swing at much because he knows he can't hit them. In the couple clips I've seen of him this spring his swing does look flatter. That's going to be the key to him bouncing back. I'd expect him to get under 50% fastballs to start while he's in the bigs. They're going to make him prove he can hit the breaking stuff.

Numerous reports out that the Twins tried to trade for him before the Rule 5 and couldn't come to an agreement. I'd think that's a sign that if the Twins like him enough now to try to work out a deal again the Phillies wouldn't give him up for just any old toss in deal as they clearly like him, too. The Twins have often times carried a long man in the pen who doesn't see any action for weeks at a time. Certainly a role that a Rule 5 pick could fill. Not ideal to not be able to rotate him down to AAA for a couple weeks after he goes multiple innings and bring up another guy to sit around for 2 weeks, but it can be done. I don't know if he'll earn a season long spot on the 26-man, but there's a path to it if the Twins truly like him that much and the Phillies are asking for too much in trade for him.

I don't know how anyone could think there's not 4 spots 100% locked up already. If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack are healthy they're all in the rotation. It's not what I'd do (I believe in Festa and would put him in the rotation and Paddack in the pen if they're both still in the org come opening day), but I don't know how anyone thinks that isn't what the Twins are planning. And it's not a completely outrageous idea as you know you're going to need at least 7 or 8 starters to get through the year. I expect Paddack to be unpredictable from start to start and to get injured at some point before the all-star break. The Twins believe in him. Apparently, they've been rather obsessed with him since pre-pandemic days. He's getting a rotation spot if he's healthy and still with the team. I don't know why we'd think anything else. As for SWR, he should absolutely have the inside track to the 5th spot as camp opens. I am not a big believer in his upside, but he pitched well enough for most of last season to have earned the inside track. If his velo is down or he just looks completely lost out there during the spring he could certainly lose his spot to Festa, but he'll get the benefit of the doubt. Especially since he's down to his last option year. It may not be ideal, but options matter. You need to take those roster building rules into account.