chpettit19

Tonkin, Topa, and Stewart are the only questions I see. If they're going to go out and sign more Staumonts and Jacksons then just tender these guys and roll with them. If they really need to save the couple million and are going to roll with league minimum guys then don't tender them. The rest are getting deals. Castro may get traded, but he's worth 6ish mil to somebody so tendering him makes sense. Only way he isn't tendered is if they get scared off by their complete misjudgment of Farmer's worth last year and think they'd be doing the same thing with Castro. But that'd be a mistake. They wouldn't get anything massive for Castro, but they can get a flier for him and it's better to get a flier than to just non-tender.

If that's what you've taken from my posts I'm sorry. I'm someone who cares about being able to show some sort of proof for things. I can show proof of Ben's abilities. Slugging reigns supreme when it pertains to catching, or any other position? No, but you can't have a hitter in your major league lineup with an OPS of .500 or below. No matter what position they play. I know you read an article that called him "Cole's personal catcher" and you love that, but Ben Rortvedt caught 13 games for Gerrit Cole in his life. That's basically 1/3 of a season worth of starts. And they traded him the very next offseason. So, he clearly wasn't too important to Cole. Tampa is also a "pull the ball in the air" team. They aren't a slap hitting team. They pulled the ball 2% less than the Twins and more than the Yankees. You make claims that aren't based on anything other than you wanting to fit them into your narratives. It's why I use stats. Because it's actual evidence for my stance. Ben pulled the ball more in Tampa than he did in MN. It's not "remarkable" that a player can play the season after being hurt. He ended the 2023 season healthy. He had a healthy offseason. That doesn't explain him returning to his career norms in the second half. Them being his career norms explains him returning to his career norms. When the POBO of the team you're talking about goes on record and names the position the player you're talking about as the position that needs to be upgraded for next year it may be a sign that you shouldn't be defending that player so hard. “The catching position, the production we got last year was nowhere near where it needed to be to be a playoff-contributing position. We need to find a way to score more runs. I think there’s a few different ways we can go about doing that. But upgrading the catcher situation, without question.” Maybe I'm not the one who doesn't understand catching when these are the quotes coming from the team you think has hitting figured out so much better than the Twins and this is what they're saying about the position the guy you're defending plays.

How big is Raya actually? The Twins site has him listed as 6'1" 170. That's no monster of a man, but he's not Payton Eeles sized (no offense to Payton, but he's not very tall). I'd just like to hear the explanation for why he's been so limited in his pitches and innings. Is it his size? Mechanics? Something in his medical exams? Something in their trackman readings? Why has he been managed this way? He's in AAA now. It's time. Either you're going to let the young man throw or you're not. If you're not then transition him to a multi-inning pen role and get him to the bigs as soon as he's ready if he's one of your best arms. If they come out of the gate treating him differently than the rest of the AAA arms I'm going to be concerned. I don't doubt they had a reason they felt was convincing to manage the way they have. But he's on the doorstep. It's time to get him ready to be a real MLB starter. That bar isn't that high. 6 innings and 90 pitches. Treat him like the rest of the AAA arms. Then let's get those BB numbers under control and he could be an exciting young piece!

How much do they need the pennies? How much do they need the roster spots? I don't have a good feel for their plans this offseason so I don't have a good guess on what they'll do or what I'd do in their place based on what their plans are big picture. Are they going to make a whole bunch of trades and reshape the roster around Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, and Jax? Are they going to basically run it back? I don't know. If they're basically running it back then tender them all because the extra money saved would just go into the Pohlads pockets or be spent on clones of these guys anyways and I don't care for either of those situations. If they're going to make a bunch of changes then the tender/don't tender decision comes down to whether or not you think they can be included in any trades. Tender if you think you can trade them. Don't if you don't.

Ben hit incredibly well in the first half before returning to career norms. It could have been his knees but the more straight forward answer is that that's who he is as a hitter considering it's who he's been his entire professional career. He's simply not a very good hitter. He had a 41 OPS+ his first season with the Twins and a 28 OPS+ in his stint with the Yankees. The outlier for Rortvedt was the first half last year, not the second. If he can OPS .620ish like he did last year he's going to have a nice long career as a defensive specialist behind the plate. If he goes back to his major league norm of OPSing 460-500 he won't have a major league career. The chances of him hitting anywhere near what he did early in the year last year are very, very small. He had 2 insanely hot months and the rest were very bad. I know you like Ben. I'd like having him back in St Paul playing that Butera role of 3rd catcher who comes up when one of the 2 primary catchers gets hurt. But he's not a good choice for a primary catcher on a contending MLB team. The Rays are going to hope they can get him to slap the ball around some so he can OPS .600 and be a useful part of their team, but they are absolutely looking to upgrade on him. Vazquez is likely an upgrade on him. It'd be interesting if the Twins can find a prospect package that'd interest the Rays in a swap of the Vazquez and Diaz contracts.

Crochet making it clear he wouldn't pitch in the postseason without a contract extension, thus making it far harder to trade him turned me off to any idea of trading for him (very unlikely the Twins would've been the ones to do it anyways). I get the arm health concerns with moving from the pen to the rotation, but choosing to stick on an historically awful team instead of getting moved to a playoff team isn't a good look to me and I'd be very nervous about paying him. He wanted an extension last year and I'm not sure why you wouldn't think he'd want one after a trade now. Twins aren't trading for Crochet.

I don't think the Rays would be interested in adding Vazquez to Rortvedt as they've been pretty open about wanting better offensive production from their catchers. I'd have to check and see what the rules are for trading Rule 5 eligible players after the deadline, but I'm not sure they can trade Olivar right now. If the Rays really want him they can just take him in the Rule 5 and offer the Twins something much less than Kelly and Cleavinger to keep him in their system if they decide they don't want to carry him on their 26-man all year later. And, fyi, Winder was released by the Twins on the 13th so he's not longer with the team. I like the idea of adding someone like Kelly, but productive players on pre-arb deals are not cheap and I don't think a package like this would be enough to get it done.

“Obviously with the full benefit of hindsight, especially so, the catching results and production last year did not meet our expectations. That’s on me, first and foremost." "There’s some guys out there that can help us. More a matter of going through it and seeing where it ends up. One way or another, we have to have better production than what we had last year if we want to win more games than we did last year.” Couple quotes from Erik Neander, President of baseball operations for the Tampa Bay Rays on 11/8/2024. This article says they like Rortvedt but they're looking to upgrade the catching position, as seems pretty clear from the quotes from Neander. I don't think they'd be willing to take on Vazquez at his full contract, though. And since his bat is the significant question I wouldn't think he'd be the type of guy they'd be looking to pair with Rortvedt who's bat is also the significant question in his abilities.

Who are you suggesting the Twins trade to get Mr Kelly? May be cheaper financially, but certainly not cheaper to acquire. Rays don't just give away pre-arb players.

I'm not saying to completely ignore those sorts of things, but the #1 variable, in my opinion, should be talent. Okert had a job last year because he was left-handed. He wasn't more talented than other options they had, but he threw with the other hand and they wanted to be able to put him in there when those scary guys who stand on the other side of the plate came up for a 3rd time. And he was actually pretty effective at getting them out (.564 OPS against in 65 PAs). He was just completely useless at getting the other guys out (.984 OPS against in 95 PAs). Which made him a bad member of the team. And the new rules make it really hard to deploy guys like him against more lefties than righties. Especially lefties who are bad at hitting lefties. What are the odds that the Twins would end up with 8 guys with the same repertoire and release point? They certainly shouldn't be training their guys that way. They should be maximizing how each guy's body moves and building their repertoires around that. And then from there just give me the 8 most talented guys at getting major league hitters out at any given time. My argument here is the same as with the lineup. Stop trying to find guys who do a singular thing well and give me the best baseball players. I don't want anymore Okerts or Margots just because they throw with their left hand or stand in the right-handed batter's box.

No thanks to Jesus Luzardo. How many more injury riddled players do we need on this roster? The man has made 20 starts in a season 1 time in his major league career. He's topped 100 major league innings twice, and one of those times was 100.1 innings. Starters aren't throwing 200 innings anymore, but a guy who can't even throw 100 isn't of interest to me. I understand that Luzardo's ceiling is very high and he can be a very good starting pitcher, but this team needs guys who stay on the field. Adding yet another "if he goes against his entire career data set and actually plays an entire season" type player isn't of interest to me. And I get that all pitchers are injury risks. But let's not target the extreme injury risk guy coming off a season where he made 12 starts and threw 66 innings. Especially when he missed time with "elbow tightness" during that shortened season. 2023 is the only season since 2018 he hasn't been on the IL. People talk about how the Twins wouldn't/shouldn't trade someone like Joe Ryan this offseason because his value is diminished by being hurt this last season, but he threw 135 innings in 23 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Jesus Luzardo had 66.2 innings in 12 starts with a 5.00 ERA and 4.26 FIP. Larnach is all he's worth. If that. The Twins' players aren't the only ones who lose value when they perform poorly and get injured. Luzardo doesn't maintain his value just because his name is the same. Luzardo is the guy you target because you aren't going to offer full list price as he comes off yet another injury. The chances of him being traded this offseason are incredibly small because the Marlins are very unlikely to deal him knowing they can't get value for him. They'll keep him and give him a chance to reestablish that value. And the Twins should still stay away from him when the Marlins try to dump him and his injury problems on someone for full list price at the deadline. Also, the position player side of this roster is a far bigger concern to me than the pitching side. Trading away hitters for pitchers doesn't make sense to me. Trading away hitters for hitters who play more would make some sense. But the offense is what let this team down, not the pitching. The offense collapsed and failed to score runs. That's why they missed the playoffs. Fix the offense (and defense).

There is absolutely a path to an incredible bullpen for the 2025 Twins. Unlike the 2024 Twins, this pen could be built on young(ish) guys who throw gas with filthy breaking/off speed stuff. The 2024 Twins pen that people were calling the best pen in baseball before the season was built on one-hit-wonder veterans in their early- to mid-30s with health concerns and middling stuff. This one could be built completely differently. But we're talking about the Twins so the disclaimer of "health permitting" needs to be applied. Jax, Duran, Sands, Varland, Alcala, Prielipp, Canterino, Stewart, Henriquez, Raya, Adams gives you a really nice base of arms to dig into as the season goes along and injuries and bad performance happen. You can add Funderburk, Moran, Topa, and some others to the list as well. The key to a good pen is either luck or options. You can't prepare for luck so you gather options. They have options. I like the position they're in as of today. With the 3 batter minimum rule I don't care about handedness of relievers much. I just want the most talented relievers I can get. The elite left-handed hitters in the game can hit lefties so I'm not bringing in a worse pitcher just because he throws with a different hand. The bad left-handed hitters get pinch hit for or are surrounded by right-handed hitters, or both, so bringing in a lefty to face them often leads to that lefty facing more righties anyways. So if he's not as good as the righty it's not ideal. I'll carry a pen full of righties if those 8 righties are better than any lefty options I have available to me. With the rules in place today relievers need to be able to get out hitters on both sides of the plate. It's why Okert failed. Don't worry about righty lefty. Get the best arms you can get. They have a pretty good stable of them right now. Never hurts to find better, though.

I didn't ask if they existed, I asked if you had them. I'll take if from your response that you won't be providing the support to what you said. You implied that Jeffers was doing things his own way instead of how the coaches were doing things. Or at least that's how I understood it. I apologize if I misunderstood. Maybe you just mean he went to Driveline to rework his throwing motion. That wouldn't be weird at all. I don't need quotes to the contrary. The assumption is that players are doing things the way the team coaches them. You're the one claiming the contrary. Again, why should I have to ask him? You're the one making claims, very strongly, on numerous threads, but don't have any real evidence. Do you have examples of why we should view Vazquez as a great mentor? Has he mentored other young catchers? Because you don't believe he's successfully mentored a 2nd round pick who made it to the majors in 2 years and had multiple above average framing seasons before Vazquez got here and has above average pop times in the 2 years he's been with Jeffers so I'm curious why you believe he's a "member of the core" for his mentoring ability when he hasn't been able to mentor Jeffers. What can he do in 1 year with a different young catcher that he couldn't do in 2 with Jeffers?

You have any quotes you can show us about Jeffers apparently ignoring coaching and catching how he wants? If Jeffers was putting in work to improve his catching why didn't go to vital core mentor Vazquez?

The contract didn't look like solid value when it was signed. It was pretty universally seen as an overpay because he didn't want to come to MN but couldn't get anyone to give him three years so came here reluctantly because the Twins were the only team willing to go 3 years, 10 mil per for him when nobody else would. It was a questionable contract from the jump, it just turned out to go way worse than expected way quicker. If the Twins can clear the full 10 mil and sign any of the other nobody veteran catchers for half the cost they should do it. It's not overly useful, but when you're looking for every last dollar you can get for payroll may as well save 3-5 mil here. But the second you have to eat salary and don't have a minimum salary catcher to take his place just keep Vazquez for his continuity with the pitching staff. And I'm definitely not giving up a real prospect to get rid of Vazquez because they got desperate in and went 3 years and the Pohlads got cheap now.

The failure of the Twins is in drafting guys who have high chances of sticking at SS in the majors. Being drafted as a SS and being a likely major league quality defensive SS are 2 very, very different things. The scouting hasn't been a problem, the Twins just tend to care more about the bat than the glove when drafting. Noah Miller being one of the more notable exceptions, but he was traded away. But, generally speaking, you shouldn't pay much attention to the position listed when a player is drafted if your goal is to determine where they're likely to play if they reach the majors. It really doesn't mean much of anything when it comes to projections for where that guy is likely to play in the future. You want guys who played up the middle in high school and college as it likely means they were better athletes than their peers, but it doesn't mean they're all that likely to stick there as they progress.

Raya is 100%. Olivar depends on what their plans are with Vazquez, Jeffers, and Camargo. I don't see them carrying 4 catchers on the 40-man, but if they are serious about moving one of the others they'll protect him. Don't see them protecting any of the others. We do this every year. Freak out about losing guys. Especially position players. There are very few position players selected in the 40-man. I don't see anyone else who needs protecting who isn't a dime a dozen type prospect. Losing Baddoo was the end of the world a handful of years ago and the front office were the biggest fools ever, and now he's never talked about because he's an easily replaceable player like basically everyone else selected in the Rule 5. Most overhyped part of the offseason every year.

It is honestly a very interesting decision to sign for $1 mil in Korea this early. Kyle Hendricks just got 2.5 from the Angels going into his age 35 season coming off a year where he had an ERA of nearly 6 in 24 starts. That's pretty telling, too. Can Martin Perez find a job? Michael Lorenzen? Colin Rea? Carlos Carrasco? Lance Lynn? Kyle Gibson? I'd guess more than 1 of those guys signs a major league deal for more than $1 mil. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/rangers-predicted-reunite-reliable-veteran-10-mullion-deal/506537aee68cbc61b66f7db7 Is Kyle Gibson with his 4.24 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP anything more than a back end starter? He's apparently going to get a $10 million deal. Even if it's half that. If I'm Cole Irvin I'm asking my agent why my numbers are basically the same and I'm playing in Korea for a million. I'd love to understand better why Cole Irvin signed in Korea for $1 mil already.

When multiple options are provided the best option can very reasonably be referred to as the likely ceiling. Multiple options were provided. Reasonable people are referring to the better option as the likely ceiling. And its a very reasonable ceiling to be named for a pitcher with his velo and concern over control. Not seeing the controversy. The more controversial take on Cory Lewis at this point would be suggesting his likely ceiling is anything higher than back end starter.

Cole Irvin wasn't even close to a back end starter? He had a 4.07 ERA in 16 starts. 4.20 FIP. 4.49 xFIP. Sounds an awful lot like a back end starter to me. Absolutely horrid reliever, though. "His future roles likely oscillate between being an up and down arm, and a back end starter." The article seems to call back end starter his ceiling. Or at least his likely ceiling.

I'm not a fan of swing-at-everything guys. If they can teach him any semblance of plate discipline he has the contact skills to be a dangerous bat. But he hasn't shown it yet. Once you get to the upper minors it becomes much harder to succeed when swinging at everything. And it's REALLY hard to succeed in the majors that way. The key to his future is learning plate discipline. If he can do it 10 will look way too low and the Polanco trade will look foolish for the Mariners. If he can't 10 will look way too high and the Polanco trade will be a nothing burger.

I'd use Varland as a 2 inning weapon out of the pen from now on. I don't know if Canterino can even stay healthy as a pen option at this point, but I'd never throw him for more than 1 inning at a time for the rest of his life. I'm really not sure what I'd do with Prielipp. If there's any reason at all to believe he could throw 140+ or 150+ innings in 2026 then I'm following whatever path gets me there.

You want the Twins to give up a top-100 prospect or borderline top-100 AAA pitching prospect along with a top-end MLB closer to get a single catching prospect? Catching may be expensive, but it isn't that expensive!

That's my thoughts. Basically, if the Pohlads already had a buyer when they announced they were starting their search and they're really just wrapping things up at this point we aren't going to hear anything other than "we've sold the team," but if they really are just starting the search there will be rumors and a bunch of "so and so is putting together a group to try to buy the Twins." Or at least that's how it's been in the past with basically every other team that's ever sold.

Should the Twins do their due diligence and make the call? Absolutely. Should they invest any real time beyond that when they're told Roki hadn't even thought about them? Absolutely not. It's always worth a call, and the guys subject to international pool money are the only ones the Twins ever have a shot at, but there's no real chance they sign him.