chpettit19

What percentage of Buxton did we get last year? Was that 50%? Cuz if that was 50% Buxton I'll take any 4A player over that.

I don't know that that should change the decision all that much. You're not adding an extra start for Pablo or Ober anywhere in there unless you're going CC with the Brewers on the bit and having them make starts on 3 days rest. I find it almost impossible to believe this regime would even consider that idea. Unless they go 0-7 and the Mariners or Tigers go 7-0 they're still in a fight for the playoffs and getting Pablo in position to start game 1 is the real motivator for moving him up a day. Technically, they'd still be in the fight in the situation I laid out, but their odds would be very low. I don't think this week's results should change much at all about the decision on moving Pablo up. As I see it, either you're getting Pablo lined up for game 1 or you're so tied to your strategies that you're completely and totally unwilling to adjust from them even for a playoff advantage.

I'm curious to see what they do with Pablo in the last 13 games. He starts tonight. He'll start again Saturday. They have an off day Monday. Do they move him up and have him pitch next Thursday? They haven't done that all year. They've used all their off days as an extra day rest for their rotation. But if they start him Thursday instead of Friday next week he'd then be on regular 4 days rest for game 1 of the wild card series on the following Tuesday. I'd like to see them do things that way. It's their best way of setting up their rotation for the postseason, and allows them to, hopefully, get an extra win on the board before going into the last 3 game set against Baltimore. Unfortunately, Ober won't get the same option as he would be scheduled to pitch Monday, but will instead be pushed back to Tuesday. So, unless they're going to go way out of character and have him start on 3 days rest, his last start of the year will come on Saturday the 28th and he would either have to pitch on short rest in game 2 or go game 3. Anyone have guesses on what the Twins will do or opinions on what they should do?

Anyone you send down at this point in the season is done for the year. A demoted pitcher has to be down for 15 days unless replacing an injured player. If they've been carrying someone they don't think is one of their 14 best arms for the last couple weeks they've been doing things terribly wrong. Not a lot of room for shuttle moves from here on out.

There's a lot of factors. Agreed that knowing vs not knowing is very different. Was Ryan getting treatment for a groin injury the team knew nothing about? Why would he be? I assume Larnach is getting treatment for whatever ails him. I'm just pushing back on the idea of "hero time" as if it's them just deciding they want to be seen as the conquering hero so they sat out until now. The season is almost over. There's nothing left to heal up for. That's a very different situation than going on the IL in June where you're planning to heal and be back. Playing through injury for 3 months is very different than playing hurt for 2 weeks. But people don't like to always acknowledge that and would prefer to say things like "Byron and Carlos can't be bothered to play" and suggest they're only coming back now because they can/will be seen as the hero. They're coming back now because there's no time left. They've healed as much as they can so it's either try to play now or pack it in. And I'd argue that if they can't play the day after playing 4 innings they should just pack it in.

Just wanted to see you say it since you like to act like the stars are doing something different than the rest of them. Glad to know you hold Trevor to the same standards.

Was that just as predicted? Is he a "Boras boy," too? You making any implications that he has questionable character? What happens to him if something happens that effects his health in the future? Would the team be better off with someone who can play the field and run the bases or should they keep Trevor in the lineup for him to attempt to play hero even though he doesn't care about playing midseason games when he's this hurt?

I questioned them being brought back if they can't play everyday. So I'm in agreement there. Why is Trevor playing through an injury now, but didn't in previous seasons when he was hurt during the middle of the season? Hero time for him, too?

Byron Buxton is not a Scott Boras client. If you're going to question a man's character at least do it based on proper information.

If there's so much concern that they may need to, or the team may want to, remove them early from a game they should simply put them back on the IL. Either they're healthy enough to play or they aren't. If they are, put them where they best fit in the lineup. That being said, one could make a very reasonable argument that they deserve to hit in the 5th and 6th holes because they haven't played in so long they likely aren't going to perform to their usual standards. That being said, Buxton homered in his return and Correa doubled in his. They certainly looked early like they're their usual selves on the field. I don't know the right answer to all this, but having to sit the day after playing 4 innings of baseball feels like the wrong answer. They have 13 games left in the regular season. They hold a 2.5 game lead over 2 teams, and a 4.5 game lead over a team they have a 3 game series against at the end of this week. If they need to sit after playing 4 entire innings I'm not sure they're really more valuable to this team than having a full roster of playable guys. Especially when you add Lewis and his inability to play every day as well. If your strategy is to maximize your roster by being able to play matchups and put guys (see Margot, Manuel and Farmer, Kyle) into ideal situations where they don't have to face competition you know they can't beat then having 3 position player roster spots dedicated to guys who are so limited in their playing time is probably a bad call. It's go time. Full go. Pull them from blowouts, for sure. But then you can't sit them the next day. If they're that hurt still put them back on the IL. There's nothing left to save them for. You have 13 games. It's time to put them in there and see where the cards fall. If you can't just play them then put them back on the IL and try to matchup your way to the playoffs.

One of the more bizarre stories I can remember ever hearing about a baseball player's on field conduct. Wanted to end his team's season because he was worn out physically or mentally? Had a personal problem with that specific pitcher so wanted to tank their performance? Had money on the game and wanted to help his odds? If he wants to continue his career we'll likely get some sort of comment from him, but it'll be hard to know how much of it is believable. Just a wild story. If he's a person in crisis I very much hope he gets the help he needs and looks to find a path back to the life he was attempting build. If he was just a jerk who hurt his teammates out of his own selfishness I hope he has some good people in his life to help him improve as a person and he has a good backup plan for his life from here on out cuz baseball likely is not the answer anymore.

I think a lot of that will depend on what the rest of the roster looks like. You can't platoon them all. Wallner has a .697 OPS against lefties this year. League average OPS is .712. He's OPSed very well against them in the high minors (.848 last year, .911 in 2022) in over 300 ABs. They can't platoon them all and Wallner should be the one they give the chance to see what he can do. Would you rather have Wallner face lefties or have the Farmers and Margots of the world face righties? I don't think it should even be a question. Wallner has a better OPS against lefties than Martin, Farmer, or Margot have against righties. His OPS against lefties is better than Kepler (.682), Martin (.669), Farmer (.668), Julien (.660), Kirilloff (.653), Margot (.652), Vazquez (.607), and Lee (.586) have done overall this year. And that's with sporadic ABs against them here and there. If they're not going to let Wallner get a shot against lefties with those numbers we should be pretty worried whether or not they'll let Emma or Jenkins do it when they get here. And if they're going to turn all their young lefties into platoon bats they're going to severely handicap their team.

Strong disagree that him spiking his chase rate is a good sign. His chase rate was never the problem. And it spiking will never be a good thing. His problem is his in zone swing and contact rates. He's too picky on which strikes he swings at, and misses too many of the ones he does. Him chasing more does not help the situation. He was passive before, but it's all about him swinging at, and hitting, strikes. If he were better at making contact then increasing his chase rate wouldn't be terrible. But he isn't. He already struggles to make enough contact so adding swings on balls he really can't hit, and would be balls, is not a recipe for success. He needs to be more aggressive on balls in the zone, but, really, he needs to be better at hitting the ball. This season he's seen 50.4% of pitches in the zone. League average is 48.7. He's swing at 62.2% of those pitches. League average is 67. He's made contact on 78.2% of those pitches. League average is 82. His chase contact rate is 36.5%. League average is 57.8. So he sees more pitches in the zone, swings at fewer of them, and makes contact with fewer of them. Pitches out of the zone he misses significantly more than the average player. Chasing more will not help him. His swing path is incredibly steep and it makes hitting certain pitches much harder. That's his problem. Maybe the extra chase is part of the process, but it better be short lived. He won't have a career if he's chasing 33% of the time.

Matt has made my "he'll come back a little and be a 120-130 OPS+ type bat" stance look awfully silly since his recall. And 120-130 OPS+ is a top-50ish bat in MLB! He's certainly looking like a top-10-15 bat in MLB if he doesn't have anymore crazy stretches where he's completely lost like the first couple months this season. He seems like a very hard worker who puts a lot of thought and effort into perfecting his craft. I expect him to have learned from last offseason into this season and come out mashing from the jump in 2025. If you can plant a bat like that in the 2 to 4 hole everyday (yes, everyday, including against lefties) you've got an awfully nice starting point for a nice offense. He'll never be Max in right, but his arm helps make up for some of his lack of natural fielding instincts, and the more he plays RF at Target field the more comfortable he'll get and be able to improve his overall defense. The unfortunate thing for Matt is he's going to be 27 next year and he's not even knocking on the arbitration door yet. He'll have 1 shot at a big pay day in his early 30s. If he keeps doing what he's doing he can still get some really impressive financial numbers going for himself, but his window is a little tighter than the average MLB superstar.

If I remember correctly, the graphic on the last game said his sprint to first was the 2nd fastest speed on the team this year behind only Buxton. Now that doesn't mean we'll see a bunch of steals from him, but he's awfully fast.

His xBA is .265. That's not bad at all (league average is .245). xSLG .447 (league average .406). xwOBA .342 (league average .315). Those are very respectable numbers. Hard hit rate right in line with league average (33.3% for him compared to league average 36.5%). Line drive rate of 33%. As you said, incredibly small sample size, but the statement "Keirsey's contact has resulted in batted balls with pretty low chances of being a hit" is false. He's also seen 53.8% fastballs. Lewis has seen 51.8%. Wallner 55.6%. Miranda 52.2%. Correa 55.7%. So he hasn't, by any means, been challenged with more fastballs than the average Twins hitter. He has seen 8% of pitches middle-middle. Lewis gets 6%. Correa 7%. Miranda 7%. Wallner is down at 5%, but otherwise he's not far off of any of those guys for middle-middle pitches or fastball percentage seen. All of his expected numbers are above average. He's been more than respectable in his ABs to this point. I assume he's still here for defense and pinch running, but his expected data is quite nice. It's a basically useless sample size, but at least give him the credit he deserves. He's not looking like a superstar or anything, but he's certainly held his own in an incredibly small sample.

Helman is already back in St Paul. Was demoted yesterday for Margot.

Yeah, I'd like to know what their data is saying about things. Maybe those lefties happen to all really struggle against splitters? That'd be my best hope for that kind of decision. His fastball usage has gone from 49.6% in 2022, to 45.1% in 2023, to 41% this year. Curve has gone from 31.4% to 27.7% to 27.4%. Split has gone from 16% to 27.1% to 31.6%. He's getting very few swings and misses on his split (18.9%). But his other 2 pitches are pretty close to his previous seasons. His exit velo against all 3 pitches are at all time lows outside of his curve having been lower in 2022. Really weird season for him. His batted ball data is still elite. Highest weak contact rate of his career. Lowest barrel %. Lowest chase rate of his career, though. And they're hitting it more when they chase. Tipping pitches maybe? Lowest swing%, chase%, and whiff% feel like guys are awfully comfortable in the box against a guy with his stuff. His chase rate is in the 30th percentile after having been in the 98th in 2022 and 67th last year. He's not fooling anyone.

This is slightly incorrect. He gave up a single to a lefty (Kavadas). Then a single to a righty (Adams). Then got back to back righties to strikeout (Ward and Neto). Then a single to a lefty (Schanuel). Then a groundout for a righty (Stefanic). And every ball in play was hit hard from both righties and lefties. Hits came off a splitter to a lefty, fastball to a righty, and splitter to a lefty. Groundout was on a curveball to a righty. Threw 5 total fastballs in 22 pitches. All 5 pitches to the lefties were splitters. Every ball in play off him was hit 94.9 MPH or harder.

Varland has done well in his 2nd innings. It's the 2nd time through the order that he falls apart. I have no problem with Sands being a once through guy, but Varland has performed well enough to be a multi-inning guy. Just not more than once through the lineup.

I will be shocked if they let any of them go longer no matter how they're doing. They wouldn't let Ober and Ryan have unlimited leashes last year and they're better pitchers than any of these guys at this stage. It's just not how they believe in running the team.

I think everyone not named Pablo Lopez or Bailey Ober will be bullpen arms come October. Obviously, somebody has to start the game, but I don't think there's another arm on the roster they'll let go through a lineup more than once in a playoff game. Game 1: Pablo Game 2: Ober Game 3: SWR once through followed by Varland once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined Game 1: Festa once through followed by Zebby once through- Hope to get 5 or 6 innings combined Game 2: Pablo Game 3: Ober Repeat as needed Depending on how many games they play each series, and where the off days fall, and how rested Pablo and Ober are coming into the postseason things could change and they could get away with fewer "bullpen" days here and there, but that'd be my guess for what their plan will be in the playoffs (with the obligatory "if they get there"). I don't think there's any chance they're letting any of the young guys go more than 4 innings in any game. The real challenge comes if they have to fight until the last day or 2 of the season just to get in and don't have the chance to line up their rotation. Then you might end up with Pablo and Ober not being available until game 3 or something real bad.

Do you believe the front office would hire a manager that would do things drastically different than Baldelli? How do you think this dynamic works? The front office just puts together a team with certain strengths and weaknesses randomly and hope that their manager uses them in the right way? You think they have a right handed hitter who's only skill on a baseball field is hitting left handed pitching on the roster at all times and just hope their manager uses them right? Garlick, Luplow, Farmer, Margot the list goes on and on. You think they thought those were the most talented players and the fact that Rocco platoons them wasn't something they planned with Rocco? Do you believe they think Rocco is doing things wrong? That's what it'd take for them to fire him. He hasn't changed drastically in his entire time here and they extended his contract. Do you think the front office thinks he makes the wrong decisions and leads in the wrong way but still extended his contract? This idea that the front office would stay and Rocco would leave and you'd see the team run drastically different flies in the face of all logic. These are front office strategies that Rocco also believes in. Molitor didn't and that's why they fired him. They wouldn't fire Rocco and then hire somebody that doesn't believe in their strategies. It doesn't make any sense.

It worked for the entire middle segment of the season. Why is it not working now? This isn't something that changed. Your argument is basically that it took them until the middle of August to be effected by the switching of lineup spots. They were 5th in baseball in runs scored from May through July. 8th in baseball in runs scored from opening day through July. They weren't in static order that whole time. Why was it working then?

Yes. But my bigger concern is killing the problem at the roots (probably the Pohlads but that's a discussion for another day), and not just one of the branches. I don't like a number of their strategies, and don't think they can win a World Series following them. But if you keep the guys truly driving the strategies around while just making Rocco the sacrificial lamb it doesn't solve anything. My stance is that whoever is currently in charge of the development of hitters and pitchers (not fielding) can stick around and continue to run that. The rest I'm ready to move on from. I'll even sacrifice the person running the hitting and pitching development if it means never having to see them roster another short-side platoon bat with no speed and limited defensive skill again.