chpettit19

I'll add that in that situation they were looking for someone to put the ball in play with 1 out and a guy on 3rd and Wallner is a bigger strikeout concern. I don't disagree with your general stance, there are a lot of variables. But Jojo Romero had walked a guy, given up a double with an exit velo of 107.2, and a flyout with an exit velo at 96. He wasn't on his game today and that was clear. Rocco has those numbers in real time, too. My concern is how automatic these decisions are in basically any close game. Lefty on the mound? Pinch hit. Even if that means Farmer is going to face a righty or if Margot is 0-fer on the season. Doesn't matter. Pinch hit. Can't risk the lefty facing a lefty. That puts the other team in charge. They get to dictate what they want. Marmol was the one in the tough spot, but Rocco made it easy on him. Jeffers and Santana were next. Marmol deciding when to take out the superior reliever was the tough choice. Rocco let him off the hook with the auto-pinch hit. I don't care about Farmer's career numbers against righties. They're meaningless for this decision. This isn't April, it's 6 days from September. Farmer is who he is this year. So is Margot. They can't hit righties. Farmer has a .485 OPS and .150 BA against righties this year. At some point the numbers this season need to start factoring in. It's beyond time, as far as I'm concerned. Margot is 0-28 as a pinch hitter. 0-28. It's time to stop pinch hitting him this year. That's not what they expected, but at some point it's time to move beyond what you expected and base decisions on what you have. Farmer and Margot should never face righties. Never. I don't blame Rocco totally for that. Kepler wasn't feeling it today so had to play someone else. Limited options. That's why I blame Falvey and Levine, too, for having him on the roster. Farmer shouldn't play at all, but he's here and everyone on the roster has to play eventually. Just the reality of the game. I 100% agree that Rocco has a million more data points than we do. But I don't see this situation as all that complicated. Margot should never pinch hit for the Twins again. Farmer should not have pinch hit today. The decision was based on a season long plan. It's not all Rocco's fault. This is the organizational philosophy they follow. But it's darn near September. It's time to start making decisions based on this year's numbers and not the projections you had for this year. Can Rocco throw out a bunch of reasons why he did what he did? Of course. But, as far as I'm concerned, it just isn't that complicated. Wallner had the better chance there. Farmer is no longer a major league player. They need to stop pretending he is.

I'm annoyingly neutral on managers so this isn't a call for Rocco's head, but that Farmer pinch hitting decision was maybe the worst decision I've seen Rocco make. I have no idea what reasoning there was to bring him in there. You knew they had a righty ready and there was a 100% chance he was going to face a righty. Give me Wallner against a left 100/100 times over Farmer against a righty. Especially a cold Farmer just coming off the bench and a lefty that's clearly not on his game. That was an absolutely horrific decision. That brings me to my "dead horse" complaint. It's absolute madness that they continue to roster 2 below replacement level players with the only intent to use them against 25% of the league in the box and play them as little as possible up the middle. Margot and Farmer should not be on this roster. This obsession with platooning and pinch hitting makes no sense. They had a combined 5 PAs today. All of them against righties. This strategy of maximizing your output against 25% of the league at the cost of hurting your output against 75% is nonsense! Especially for corner players! This utterly predictable situation is going to kill them in the playoffs. Rostering them is on Falvine and being so utterly predictable in game is on Rocco. This is an organizational problem that they need to fix. I can't imagine what numbers they're looking at that make this strategy make sense. Guys who flat out can't hit 75% of the pitchers in the majors shouldn't be on contending rosters. Stop the madness!

His OPS against righties is .867 this year. It's .801 against lefties. In only 5 fewer PAs than all Twins lefties have verse lefties combined this year. That doesn't mean the Twins would ever let him hit against lefties in the majors, but he doesn't have much platoon split at all this year. Agree that Margot isn't taking his spot. Not because he should be irrelevant, but because they prefer to carry Farmer and Margot types who have horrid platoon splits against 75% of the league instead of just getting the best players. I'm not sure Keirsey is good enough to play in the majors. He's older and not destroying AAA, instead is just doing really well. But I can't imagine he's a significantly worse all around player than Margot. Margot may be a -1 WAR player this year (currently -.7 bWAR). Him being on the roster is somewhat relevant to everyone. Carrying a negative WAR player for 144 PAs against lefties (to this point) is a bold strategy I'll never understand. And the Twins are carrying 2 (Farmer only has 75 PAs against them, actually). I'd say those roster spots effect everyone if the Twins are going to be obsessed with this platoon thing to the extent that they're willing to carry multiple worse than replacement level players for 300 total PAs against lefties.

To be fair, Pipeline isn't the only one with him at 60 power. Fangraphs, for example, also has him at a 60. They even have him at a 55 raw power right now. But they have him at a 20 current game power. I have no problem with people saying he's not a power hitter right now. That's pretty obvious. I'd expect someone who's far more "A swing all the time" like Emma to have higher exit velos early in his career. He paired that with some pretty significant K rates, though. Jenkins' approach is much different. His K rates are basically half of Emma's at the same levels. The Fangraph's raw power grade makes me think when scouts watch him just let it fly in batting practice a few times they're seeing different things than what we're seeing in the game as he works to be an all around hitter and not just try to yank it as hard as he can. He is most definitely not a "get my A swing off every time" kind of hitter. This could just be part of his development. Or he could never develop that kind of power (much like Mauer). Will be fun to see how he does, though.

I wasn't predicting Houston is going to do that, they're just more likely to have their division locked up than Baltimore is so I used them as the example. But I agree, there's a lot of different things that will be at play throughout September as the season comes to a close. Should be an exciting month with a bunch of teams still playing for something!

Current power for sure, but Jenkins is still living off his draft scouting reports. You can certainly see why people think we should hit for power as he advances just by his size, but his swing certainly looks like it should produce power as well. But he really hasn't this year. It will be interesting to see what Jenkins does the first half of next year. Mid-season rankings next year could see a big change for him. Or he could be in AA with a bunch of us begging for them to send him to AAA. Will be fun to follow.

Emma has a 60 grade power on pipeline's rankings, too. Author probably could've/should've listed both guys since they're the only 2 guys in their rankings with 60 grade power.

I am still hoping Keirsey gets a shot in September. I actually am interested to see if he's added to the 40-man before September to make him postseason eligible. Teams typically cut down their pitching staff and add a base stealer type, or other position player, to their roster for the playoffs. Keirsey is an interesting guy there. Wouldn't likely play much, but as a base stealing threat off the bench and a defensive replacement late he's intriguing. Especially in the games where Margot comes in for a lefty in the 5th and then has to hit against a righty later. Keirsey is a guy at the end of the bench who could be there as the Margot replacement for both defense and to hit a righty late.

The KC-Cle series will be huge. If 1 team dominates those series (6-1 or 7-0) it could basically take 1 opponent out of the race, but also could catapult the other into a solid division lead. The other interesting thing, to me, between the Guardians and Twins is the last series of the year for each team. Cleveland gets Houston while the Twins have Baltimore. If 1 of those teams has their division and playoff spot clinched (probably more likely to be Houston) they may sit some starting pitching to get it lined up for the playoffs, or just extra rest while the other team may still be going full tilt to get their division locked up. MLB has done a nice job with limiting September call-ups to 28 guys so playoff races aren't so impacted by bad teams playing the bottom of their 40-man against playoff hopefuls, but that last series can still be effected by teams with their spots locked up trying to lineup their pitching.

Yes, better players give you better chances to win. That's not my argument. It's that what you do with Varland effects other things. If Varland was in the pen a month ago like some people want(ed) then who's making his starts on August 9th and 14th? They went 1-1 in those games, but he gave them 6 innings in the loss with only 3 runs given up (only scored 1 run that game). If that's Dobnak or Boushley or bullpen games or whoever else are they 0-2 instead and that guy only went 3 innings in each game and the pen was blown up because of it and some of the Ws around those games flipped to Ls because the pen was shot? You wouldn't just be replacing Okert or whoever's innings with Varland and automatically switching those to good innings. It would've effected other things. And putting him in the pen next week will effect other things. Reasonable minds can disagree on the risk reward analysis of that, but there is a reasonable reason why it hasn't been done yet, and had it been done before it would've effected other things.

I won't be mad if they call him up for the pen next week when he's eligible. It'd be a reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying it wouldn't be. I'm saying it's also reasonable to wait. The Twins are going into September with 3 rookies who they need, not hope, but need to pitch the best they've ever pitched in their lives deeper into a season than they've ever pitched before. Just to get to the playoffs. Relying on a 4th rookie who started the year in A+ and is 22 years old to also do that would be a massive gamble. There's a very real chance Dobnak and Morris can't get through an MLB lineup once let alone 2 or 3 times. And a bullpen game could be catastrophic with 3 rookies who aren't likely to be going more than 5 innings a start in your rotation. And I don't play the "if they'd just done this they'd have X more wins while nothing after that would've changed" game. Cuz it's not how reality works. Anything you change in the past would change what happened after. Would they have changed some Ls to Ws? Possible. Would they have also changed some Ws to Ls? Also possible. Making a different decision doesn't automatically equal positive outcome then and the same results after. Like the idea of just doing a bullpen game if Varland is up and in the pen and somebody gets hurt. Now you've had to extend your bullpen in the game your starter went down. Follow that up with 3 of your starts (depending on who got hurt) coming from rookies being extended further than they've ever been in a season. Then pitch a bullpen game just to turn around and have another 3 starts by those same rookies? Sure, you may have made the decision that won that 1 bullpen game while absolutely blowing up your bullpen and sacrificing numerous other games along the way just so Varland can be in the pen and pitch 10 innings the rest of the year. It would be very reasonable to put him in the pen next week. It's also very reasonable to keep him in AAA as your 6th starter for a few more weeks as insurance.

Max Kepler has hit over .240 three times in his 9 year career (soon to be 4). His career BA is .238. His highest BA ever was last year at .260. He does not at all "consistently hit .260 to .275." He's also not fast. His sprint speed of 26.9 ft/s is in the 40th percentile of major leaguers. He was fast when he broke in (28.1 ft/s, 79th percentile). But he's declined. Pretty rapidly recently. He was in the 79th percentile in 2020. Then 61, 64, 51, 40. He's no longer fast.

Max has been a really nice player for the Twins. Other than a couple short bursts he's never been the difference maker offensively that many of us hoped for, but he's been a solid player. If he'd been hitting in the 6-9 holes in the lineup all this time I think he'd be looked at a little differently. The team was often so lacking in offense that he was asked to hit in spots where he wasn't capable of producing to the level expected. I'm fascinated to see where he ends up and what kind of deal he gets. Also, how he'll be used. He's a glove first corner outfielder. Not exactly a player teams are tripping over to bring in, but still useful. He's probably best suited for a 4th OF job on a contender, but if he can't/won't play CF he's not an ideal fit there. I'd guess a team gives him 2 years and hopes they can unlock his bat. Maybe 3 years if there's a few teams bidding for him. He'll be 32 next year and with defense being his calling card he may struggle to get more than a couple years because if he isn't hitting and loses a couple steps in the field he's not a viable MLB player anymore. Will be interesting to follow his path from here. But have mostly enjoyed his time as a Twin.

Those were his stats as a starter, yes. His stats as a reliever for his career are a .401 OPS against the first time through the order. Then it goes to .855 and 2.000 (only faced 1 hitter) the 2nd and 3rd times. These numbers are actually the reason he should be moved to a 1-2 inning pitcher at some point this year and likely for the rest of his career. He's never been good at getting guys out the 2nd time through the order in any role at the MLB level. The question, for me, is when do you put him in that 1-2 inning role? I say September 16th when they go to Cleveland, assuming the rotation is still rolling then. If the Twins think Morris is ready to be the 6th starter then I'd be more inclined to make the move of Varland to the pen now (or when he's eligible to return to the big league roster if it isn't yet). But I don't see any benefit in having Louie available for long relief in the bigs when he's their 6th starter. Louie's best role is a 1-2 inning reliever. It's where he should be next year. I'm just not sold that it's where he should be when he's the 6th starter, and I don't see the benefit in him being a 1 time through the order long reliever when he may not see the field for 2 weeks because that role isn't needed. They aren't going to have him pitch once through the order on a set date so it's just a matter of waiting for the right situation and I don't want my 6th starter sitting around not getting game action for extended periods of time while I'm in a playoff race.

September 16th when they head to Cleveland.

They can do that. Wouldn't be the end of the world. I'm not saying it's ridiculous to put him in the pen now, but there's also a very reasonable answer to why they aren't doing it yet. Long relief is a tricky thing in general. It's why we've seen Sands and Winder sit on the roster for weeks at a time without ever throwing a pitch in a game the last couple years. Unless you're doing more of a piggy-back situation where those players are throwing in certain games no matter what it's a hard spot to manage. If they're used they're then down for 3-4 days as you said. So you can either send them back to AAA for 15 days and replace them with someone else or you can keep them and hope you don't need them again the next couple days. It also makes it very hard to stay on top of your game when you're not throwing in a game for weeks at a time. If Louie is going to have to take a rotation spot it's reasonable to want him in as close to his normal starters routine as possible. He's already a questionable starter to begin with so you don't want him to be in a relievers routine and then have to try to be on top of his starter game if needed. Not a huge difference and not the end of the world, but it's a legitimate consideration. I wouldn't be upset if they moved him to the pen now. It's a reasonable idea. But it's also reasonable that they aren't. Fans tend to care far less about tomorrow than the teams have to. The Twins are on the extreme end of strategizing for 162 games and it can be frustrating to watch. That's what the platooning and pinch hitting strategies are, large sample strategies to maximize on the edges for 162 games. Whatever they do with Louie will have a reasonable explanation behind it. I just don't think the pen has been as bad as people think, and think it's reasonable to keep Louie in a position to be his best possible self if/when he's needed in the rotation.

And their dial has them within 4.5 games of the best record in baseball while missing Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner, Julien, etc. for significant amounts of time. How much better do you honestly think they could be if their dial were turned up to the place you think it should be?

I'm not happy with them standing pat at the deadline either, but this conversation isn't about the deadline, it's about Louie Varland moving to the pen. You disagree with their chosen strategies to try to win (and so do I, as you know), but you chose to state it as them needing to try to win now. If they need to try to win now the logical conclusion is they haven't been trying to do that before. But, as the numbers I presented show, their strategies haven't been all that catastrophic. And not trading for better players at the deadline is a very different thing that putting their #6 starter in the pen when they've already lost 40% of their rotation in the last month. It's not the end of the world if they put him in the pen now and have to try to stretch him back out later if needed. But it's also not outrageous that they're holding on a little longer before they do. Injury isn't their only concern. I know we're all excited about SWR, Zebby, and Festa, but there's a very real chance one of 2 of them hit a wall soon, or get figured out, and fall apart. And as the numbers I provided before show, they aren't falling apart. In terms of blowing leads they've been as good as just about anyone in baseball. The pen hasn't crushed them by any means. I know it's been a tough week, but let's not pretend they've just been blowing leads left and right and Louie would've somehow saved them. They've been quite good at holding leads. Like, really, really good, actually.

They're 4.5 games back of the best record in Major League Baseball, but you believe they aren't trying to win? I don't get that. They're 12-8 (.600 winning percentage) in August. That's the best of any month outside of their 2-1 March. The numbers I've seen thrown around on here is that they're either 54-4 or 53-3 when leading after 7. They have 15 blown saves all year. Good for 5th best in all of baseball, 1 away from being tied for 2nd. Tied with Cleveland and their dominant bullpen. They're 19-15 (.559 win percentage) in 1 run games. I don't see a bullpen that's costing them a ton of games or a team not "trying to win." I know it's been a rough week of pen blowups, but let's not act like this pen has been losing them games right and left. Louie will go to the pen in September like he did last year. If they wait until the Reds series September 13 to make the move were they not trying to win the games over the next couple weeks? He'd throw in like 4 games in that time in the pen. Is that really them not trying to win? If they move him to the pen now it's not the end of the world. But the idea that not moving him is them not trying to win is pretty wild to me. It's like all the people saying Rocco is losing them handfuls of games. How good do people think this team is? World Series favorites if Rocco is so bad and/or they aren't trying to win and are still 4.5 games out of being the best team in baseball even while they deal with injuries to their biggest stars all year long.

On July 14 the Twins rotation was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-Paddack-SWR. On August 7 it was Lopez-Ober-Ryan-SWR-Festa. On August 8th it was Lopez-Ober-SWR-Festa-Matthews. They lost 40% of their rotation in less than a month. I know you have the ultimate belief in young guys filling in, but are you really ready for a potential September rotation of 4 rookies while they try to win the division, or even hang onto a wild card spot? 2 of those rookies being guys who started the year in A+ ball? Teams have to keep the future in mind to some extent.

Louie said before the season he wants to be a starter but prefers to be in the majors and would move to the pen if that's what got him on the Twins roster. The Twins are the ones keeping him on the bus in AAA. And for pretty good reason. The Twins have 3 rookies in their rotation right now. Only other rotation options the rest of the season are Varland, Dobnak, and Morris. Odds are they need at least a couple starts from guys not currently in the rotation. You want that to be a 2nd rookie who's jumped 4 levels (Morris started in A+ like Zebby this year, and is only 22), Randy Dobnak, or Louie Varland? My vote is pretty easily Varland. Louie will go to the pen at some point this year. But they need him as their 6th starter still.

His 2nd time through an order OPS for his career is .837. 3rd time is 1.173. First time through is .678. This year it's .667 the first time then jumps to .933 and then 1.308 the 2nd and third times. He can't get through the order more than once. Never has been able to consistently at the MLB level. I fully expect him to be moved to the pen at some point in September, and open the 2025 season there. It's where he's best used. Only thing holding them back now is that they have 3 rookies in their rotation and likely very little hope that either Paddack or Ryan are coming back to the rotation. Morris in AAA is the only other rotation option they have, and he's only made 2 starts in AAA. They need Varland at the top of his starter game for a while still. Even if the pen is the best spot for him. But he's only good for 2 to 3 innings. Once through the lineup. No more than that if you're trying to maximize Louie.

According to Fangraphs: 2021 Richards RP FIP: 4.20 120 out of 191 relievers with at least 40 innings 2022 Richards RP FIP: 4.32 165 out of 203 relievers with at least 40 innings 2023 Richards RP FIP: 4.24 134 out of 198 relievers with at least 40 innings 2024 Richards RP FIP: 4.60 139 out of 167 relievers with at least 40 innings Solidly in the bottom half of relievers every season. Not many guys ranking in those areas get to stick around for 4 years or have contenders trade for them. 108 relievers have at least 160 innings from 2021 through 2024. Richards ranks 91st in FIP. Don't think it's too big of a stretch to say he's been amongst the worst relievers in baseball according to your chosen FIP stat.

The breaking balls will be the test. He never stopped hitting the fastball, but the non-fastballs ate him alive. Last night was a nice first sign of life as he hit a changeup, sweeper, and slider in his first 3 ABs. King threw him 1 sinker, otherwise it was all offspeed stuff. I'd guess that's the treatment he'll get from most starters until he starts to produce against those pitches.

Many of us question all their pinch hitting. Universally hitters are about 15% worse when they pinch hit. The Twins are currently 15th in BA for pinch hitters at .197. 22nd in wRC+ at 62. League best with only a 19.7% K rate as pinch hitters, though. 11th in walk rate at 10.6%. Manuel Margot has hurt those numbers a lot. He's never been a very good pinch hitter, but he's been about as bad as possible this year. Their pinch hitting approach is tied to their platoon approach/belief. I strongly dislike the strategy, so my vote is that they limit their pinch hitting and platooning, but it's not at all likely that this front office changes their approaches on these things. As you said, pinch hitting is hard. That's part of why I don't like it being such a big part of their strategy. As a whole, MLB hitters have an 81 wRC+ as pinch hitters this year. So slightly worse than the typical 15% dip in production. They have a .204/.294/.338/.632 line collectively. I'm sure the Twins have numbers somewhere that say it's a good strategy, but I don't see it.