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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I haven't seen an overhead shot that shows Watkins so it's hard to tell what happened. Listening to the broadcast clip it sounds like Watkins waived him late. If Rocco is upset with Kepler it would seem the vast majority of the blame should be pointed at him. But I'd like to hear why Watkins was so late waiving him. From the clip it looks like Kepler is at 3B before/as Soler is picking the ball up at the wall. That should've been an easy waive from the start. I don't like questioning player's character, effort, etc. I don't know them. There was a poster on yesterday who was upset with Lewis because he smiles on the field too much. People used to always get on Mauer because he didn't react as outward emotionally as they wanted. Claimed it meant he didn't care. I think those are outlandish takes. Somebody not reacting the way you would doesn't mean they aren't as competitive, don't care as much, or aren't effected. But if Rocco is throwing veiled jabs at Kepler I'd think it's fair to assume this situation involved more than his knee or a late Watkins waive. Not a good look for Kepler. I don't know if it's about free agency as the article suggests, but not a good look no matter what the real problem is.
  2. chpettit19
    Not sure how moving Festa to the pen to pitch fewer innings while putting an inferior pitcher in his rotation spot to pitch more innings helps the team overall during the regular season. He's probably fighting with Zebby for the 4th spot in the playoff rotation and likely loses that battle, but I don't get how moving him to the pen now helps the team overall.
  3. chpettit19
    Just on the 40-man by August 31, not 26-man for postseason eligibility.
  4. chpettit19
    Varland and Winder aren't eligible to be recalled yet. I'd guess Winder replaces Henriquez or Blewett later this week. Harder to predict their Varland plan, but he's not eligible to return for a few days anyways.
  5. chpettit19
    Bobby Witt Jr was the other big one I forgot. He's played some 3B in the bigs. He's pretty young and pretty good. Teams are smart. They aren't going to look at Royce and compare him to Castro as a utility guy.
  6. chpettit19
    Jackson Merrill was a 20 year old making his debut in the majors and they switched positions for him to do it. Mookie is the obvious one today, but the Red Sox moved him to RF originally because of Pedroia being at 2B. Manny Machado switched between 3B and SS when he was a young, cost controlled face of the franchise player. Fernando Tatis Jr switched from SS to RF to get their best team on the field. Xander Bogaerts moved from SS to 2B. Some fella named Judged has moved around OF positions. Some dude named Soto has as well. Carlos Correa was going to move to 3B for the Mets. Cody Bellinger moved around the OF and 1B when he was winning an MVP award at the age of 23. Trea Turner moved from SS to CF back to SS with a stop at 2B along the way. Couple of those guys got paid pretty well because they weren't seen as "utility guys" just because they switched positions a time or 2. There's got to be close to, if not over, 2 billion in contracts there. Definitely over once Soto signs. Maybe even pushing 2.5 to 3 billion after that and when Merrill gets paid. And that's just 10 guys.
  7. chpettit19
    It was mentioned on the broadcast the other day, including a quote from Rocco about it not being their plan to move him there, but wanting him to be ready if they have to/do.
  8. chpettit19
    I think MLB managers are one of the most overrated things in sports. The Guardians were only good because they had Francona. Except now they're good with a guy who's never managed a day in his life before this season. Tom Kelly was great in 87 and 91 because they won World Series titles, but apparently forgot how to manage in 10 of his 15+ seasons when they finished below .500. People love to mention him towards the top of the Twins managerial rankings despite him having a career 47.8 winning percentage as a manager. Talent wins, not managers. That being said, I think it's really hard to compare today's managers to yesteryears. It's a different situation. Baseball ops departments are more involved with the everyday decisions than ever before. Even Joe Maddon complains about front offices stepping too far into clubhouses and manager's offices now. And he's viewed by many as the original "manage by analytics" guy with what he did in Tampa. That shift has happened more and more each year to the point that even he moved on from the managing thing. I don't think Rocco is great. He appears to do well managing the clubhouse. As best we can tell from the outside at least. Everyone not named Shoemaker seems to praise the Twins and how they treat their players (even Sonny had nice things to say when he was back the other day, despite some crazy claims around here). That's a lot on Rocco. I also don't think Rocco is terrible. He makes some decisions I really don't understand, but for the most part I can see the logic in his choices. But comparing him to guys who had full control of how the players were used isn't exactly comparing apples to apples. It's a different world for managers now. Not just with the Twins, either. Baseball Ops departments are more involved than ever. So just pointing at a manager and saying it's all on them is ignoring a lot of the reality of modern MLB team management.
  9. chpettit19
    No, winning only counts if you win the way I want you to win.
  10. chpettit19
    Matt Canterino hasn't thrown a pitch in a game since spring. I believe it was a strained rotator cuff that took him out in March and they shut him down from his bullpens again in June when he'd been trying to work his way back to St Paul's pitching staff. Looks like another completely missed season for him.
  11. chpettit19
    That's fair. But Duran 62% of balls in play on Duran are grounders. And and 68% of balls in play against him are pulled or up the middle. You'd be playing for 32% of balls in play against him instead of 68%.
  12. chpettit19
    Tanana: .670-.715-.724-.734 Darling: .698-.715-.730-.712 Fernandez: .588-.618-.693-.850 So if Darling could get to a 4th time through the order he came back down a little. And he did so in 175 of 364 career starts. But even 3 time All-Star Tanana, 1 time All-Star Darling, and 2 time All-Star Fernandez got worse the more times they went through the order. Fernandez significantly so. For context, that's Tanana going from giving up an 85ish OPS+ to a 105ish OPS+. Darling a 90ish to a 99ish (.712) or 110ish (.730). And Fernandez a 60ish to a 140ish OPS+. So those are some pretty decent size changes for at least 2 of them. Teams didn't just start making stuff up. They studied this stuff once all the data was collected. It also simply makes logical sense. The more you see a guy that day the better feel you get against them and the less they can trick you. Now you add in today's technology with tablets in the dugouts giving the hitters a head start to begin with and pitch to pitch real time data and it shouldn't surprise anyone that it's even harder now for pitchers to get through a lineup 3+ times.
  13. chpettit19
    Yeah, you were "just picken" Hall of Famers. Barry Bonds had a 195 wRC+ vs lefties. Ricky Henderson stole over 1400 bases. Tony Gwynn struck out in 4.2% of his PAs. Should we use those as the baseline for what MLB players should be expected to do? "Well Hall of Famers didn't have the same struggles" is a pointless argument. That's why they're Hall of Famers! They shouldn't be used to discuss the general baseball world. They're outliers and not useful comparison points. Want to "just pick" a few random starters instead of HoFers and see if they jump up higher than .678 the third time? I bet they do. Since, you know, they're not the best of the best.
  14. chpettit19
    OPS first-second-third-fourth time through a lineup: Tom (Hall of Famer): .613-.622-.636-.637 Bert (Hall of Famer): .639-.664-.678-.710 Nolan (Hall of Famer): .613-.578-.614-.622 Picking Hall of Famers as your baseline is unrealistic, but even those HoFers got worse the more times they saw a lineup outside of Nolan the 2nd time. Them being amongst the best of the best to ever do it means they didn't get as worse the deeper they went. But they still got worse.
  15. chpettit19
    Not a lot of help here. I'd guess/hope Winder is back in a couple days when his 15-day time out in AAA is over. Sending him down was probably a short-sighted mistake. Varland in a couple weeks? Or do they go to him on 9/1? The challenge is that they need Sands, Jax, and Duran available for every close game late. And leads late. Unfortunately their offense isn't great right now so most games are close late, and 60% of their rotation needs 4 innings of coverage. Ober and Lopez not being back to back helps if they can both get through 7 in their outings to give a little rest for the pen. Any short start out of those 2 is brutal. With Alcala taking a step back recently he's not as trustworthy anymore, but likely needs to be the 4th "high leverage" arm. None of the other 4 should be anywhere near leverage, but they won't have a choice. While I can understand throwing Duran Saturday since he hadn't thrown in so long, they really can't use him, Sands, or Jax in any game that isn't close. Have to trust that they can shake the rust off in the pen before entering the game if they have a week off of game action. Need them to finish every late, close lead. Need to get multiple innings from anyone they can. Have to trust Henriquez and Winder to go 2 multiple times a week. And Varland when he gets here (the Cleveland series is still my target date for him). Paddack for October could be huge, but they shouldn't be counting on it. Sands, Jax, and Duran are going to have to carry them to October. Let's hope they're up for it and still have something left in the tank once (if) they get there.
  16. chpettit19
    I think everything this FO has done the last couple years screams that Julien and Martin are going back to AAA if the roster is ever fully healthy. Only way it's not them is if Margot or Farmer suddenly feel a tweak in their hammy they didn't know was there until Falvey swung by the clubhouse to talk to them. Like Gallo last year. This FO doesn't drop veteran position players if they can do anything at all to help it. But history tells us there's a very little chance the roster is ever fully healthy so at least 1 decision will be made for them by somebody else being injured along the way.
  17. chpettit19
    I'm not sure Falvey knew what his future budgets were going to be when he signed everyone he signed. It's an ever moving target. And this last offseason was even more hard to predict than usual because of the TV deal being up in the air. And ownership does have something to do with which players are added, traded for, etc. If you're just talking Pohlads they seem to stay out of player decisions for the most part, but they're consulted, especially for deals like Correa. Other owners are much more involved (the Angels and Rockies being examples of it being a really bad idea most of the time). Ownership isn't oblivious to who they're bringing in or trading away. There's a solid chance they were involved in talks about who to trade, especially when it comes to trading a long-time fan favorite like Polanco. That's a move that also effects the business side of things as certain segments of the fanbase will be upset when you trade their favorite players. Ownership is involved in all of this, but the Pohlads do seem to just let their guys do their thing for the most part. But a big deal was made about the new baby Pohlad having an office at Target Field and being there basically everyday. There were articles written about it on multiple sites. I don't think he's dictating moves often, if at all, but he's involved in everything. He has to sign off on every deal they make.
  18. chpettit19
  19. chpettit19
    But the money ownership allows the front office to spend matters. Falvey chooses players based on the finances he has available. Pretending the Pohlads cutting payroll by 30ish million didn't effect the decisions the FO made is being willfully ignorant. Of course it effects the decisions. I didn't make any comment on ownership being the cause for the loss. You added the money statement to the conversation. Attendance isn't the driving factor on payroll, but I don't think I'd consider them "well above their attendance ranking." They were 22nd in attendance last year and are in the 19 to low 20s in payroll this year depending on your source. That seems pretty in line to me. Especially considering they were likely expecting to add to their attendance numbers coming off a playoff series win last year. They didn't add attendance largely because of the financial decisions ownership made. Which is their right to do, it's their team. So now they're 24th in attendance this year. So I still wouldn't consider their 19-22ish payroll ranking to be "well above" their attendance rank. But the bottom line on spending and team building is that I completely disagree that you can separate the 2 things. The amount of money you have changes how you build your team and which players you pick. Yes, the wins and losses are on the players. But separating ownership from the FO completely is also off base.
  20. chpettit19
    I'm not suggesting every result should always have been anticipated. I'm suggesting any failures for Farmer and Margot against right handed pitchers at this point of the season should be anticipated. It's not April anymore. It's darn near September. They have new data. The data they used to build the roster out of spring training is irrelevant now. Use the data from this season. With an emphasis on the data from the last month or 2. Margot is at -.7 bWAR. He has a 77 OPS+. He's played in 111 games. His OPS is .632. He's 0-28 pinch hitting. His OPS against righties is .552 in 72 games and 150 PAs. I think it's more than fair to suggest it should be anticipated that he will be bad, especially against righties. I mean, his career OPS is .656 against righties in over 2000 PAs. They are anticipating him being bad against righties. It's why they try not to play him against them. Farmer is at -.8 bWAR. He has a 62 OPS+. He's played in 78 games. His OPS is .573. His OPS against righties is .479 in 47 games and 94 PAs. I think it's more than fair to suggest it should be anticipated that he will be bad, especially against righties. I mean, his career OPS is .647 against righties in over 1300 PAs. They are anticipating him being bad against righties. It's why they try not to play him against them. But they pinch hit him last night in a pretty big spot knowing he'd face a righty. The results they seem to not be anticipating is that if you roster 2 guys who you don't want to face righties they're still going to have to face righties. More than they face lefties. They seem to ignore that very easily anticipated result. That's what many of us have a problem with. Matt Wallner is arguably their best hitter right now. The lefty on the mound was getting smacked around horribly. Kyle Farmer is arguably their worst hitter right now. The righty in the pen was warm. They actively chose to take their best hitter out for their worst hitter knowing that they weren't going to get the platoon advantage. The results of that decision should've been anticipated.
  21. chpettit19
    This is technically incorrect. The Twins "shade" their infielders 35% of the time. They shade against lefties 66% of the time, though.
  22. chpettit19
    It was actually Farmer at SS, not Castro. But the pitch he hit was a splitter, not a fastball. 96 MPH "offspeed" pitch. Odds are the fielders knew that. Farmer may even have been wearing the pitchcom device and heard the pitch call. But the fielders know what pitch is coming. And when you have a "flame throwing pitcher" throwing his offspeed stuff it makes sense to play the guy to pull as you expect the hitter to be geared up for 100 and get 96.
  23. chpettit19
    I think the money had something to do with things, but bullpen and platoon bats are clearly a place this FO thinks they can save money. It's not a 1 year fad. It's part of their identity. I will never understand the Margot (once we knew he couldn't play CF), Garlick, Luplow types filling roster spots, or Farmer and Gallo keeping them once it became abundantly clear they were no longer MLB quality players and the team was trying to win a closely contested division race.
  24. chpettit19
    Again, you're making my point. Every roster spot will be used in games. Lots of games. Rostering someone you don't want to face 75% of the league with the hopes that they won't face that 75% is just living in a fantasy land. And the Twins are rostering 2 of them. And Julien has a .666 OPS this year. Farmer's is .577. Julien has a 94 wRC+. Let's not act like it's 67 or something. Cuz that's Farmer's.
  25. chpettit19
    This is exactly why I hate rostering guys who can only hit lefties. You're making my point for me. Rostering multiple below replacement level players who you only want to hit left-handed pitchers and don't want to play a premium defensive position is a bad strategy. Because, as you laid out nicely, you don't actually get to just hit them against lefties and only play them on a corner. That's a fantasy. No team in the history of baseball has made it through a season without injuries and/or bad performance from their preferred starters (or so I assume). These guys will have to play against righties. It's a guarantee. There are righties out there that aren't completely useless against righties. Or they can at least play a premium position at a gold glove level. The Twins choose to employ no- or bad-glove righties who can't hit righties every year. This year they're choosing to roster 2. And pay them a combined 10+ million. Can Severino hit .150 with a .485ish OPS against righties? Can he hit .240 with a .675ish OPS against lefties? There's your Farmer replacement already on the 40-man. Lewis can fill in at short or 2nd (they even said on the broadcast today he's been working pregame at 2nd). I'd bet with regular ABs all season long multiple of their lefties could OPS .675 against lefties. But instead they're rostering Farmer to do it while having him OPS .485 against righties. And to tie it all up with a bow and come full circle on "they'll have to face righties, too"...he has more PAs against righties than lefties. That means to ensure their lefties don't hit lefties they're giving a corner IF bat more PAs against righties while he OPSes .485 against them just to make sure he's there to OPS .676 against lefties. Kyle Farmer is no longer a major league player. There's no defense for him being on the roster anymore besides their stubbornness with sticking to their preseason plan. And I'll actually be surprised if he isn't on the roster the entire season. Wouldn't be surprised to see him on the postseason roster even. They simply don't move off their preseason plans often. And I think it hurts them.
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