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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    My concern is the Twins are going to treat Jenkins the same way as all their other lefties when he gets here. Do you think they'll let him play everyday against lefties if he's up at the age of 21 like the Orioles did with Gunnar, and have done with their other guys who are closer to Wallner's debut age? I don't.
  2. chpettit19
    Not sure where this "no top 100 prospect was traded" stuff is coming from. Depends on what list you're looking at I guess. Robby Snelling went to Miami and MLB.com has him at #44. Dylan Lesko went to Tampa and they have him at #76. I'd say the fact that very few top prospects got traded is even more frustrating since legit players got moved and teams didn't have to give up elite prospects. What's the reason not to trade your non-elite prospects? The buyers won if they're getting front-line talent and not giving up top-100 prospects. No players? Not 1? Not Fedde? Not Flaherty? Not Scott? None of them? Nobody that got traded is significantly better than anyone on the Twins 26 man roster? Ok. If your argument is that front offices know more so we shouldn't question them then you don't get to ignore all their bad moves that don't work out or the bad front offices. Don't bring the argument if you don't like it being used.
  3. chpettit19
    He actually has -0.1 fWAR and he has -0.5 bWAR. Nobody is actively looking for a 0 or negative WAR player. 0 WAR means you can take any random AAAA player and get that production. And, as has been pointed out, he's had multiple years in the minors where he did very well against lefties. That is something to suggest he will figure it out. And allowing Margot important PAs against righties is a terrible idea, but that's going to happen anyways. And he won't be here next year. If Wallner getting 30 PAs against lefties the rest of the year causes the Twins to miss the playoffs they weren't going to win the World Series anyways.
  4. chpettit19
    I didn't say Wallner was Gunnar, I used Gunnar as evidence that a slow start against lefties doesn't mean you're doomed to always be bad against lefties, but you can't show you can hit them if you're never given the chance. And Aaron Judge didn't debut until he was 24, and put up a .608 OPS in 27 games that year. I know you love your ages, but they aren't the end all be all. That Judge guy (who's name shows up in this article next to Wallner's a bunch) has turned out alright. And I'm not now saying Wallner is Judge, but debut age isn't always the determining factor on how good somebody can be. Josh Donaldson didn't debut until 24. Didn't play a single major league game his age 25 season. Only played 75 games his age 26 season. Then finished 4th in MVP his age 27 season. And won the MVP his age 29 season. Ended up with 3 top 4 MVP finishes. It happens.
  5. chpettit19
    Gio's slugging for his career against lefties is .422. Against righties it's .408. .324 is a long ways from either of those numbers.
  6. chpettit19
    I don't know if this is sarcasm, but if it's not, dang, we're calling a 123 wRC+ a standard corner platoon bat? There are currently 42 qualified hitters in all of baseball with a 123 wRC+. There's only 56 in all of baseball at 115 or better. Drop it down to 200 PAs or more and you're at a whopping 62 guys at 123 wRC+. Somebody needs to let those silly Orioles know they need to start platooning Colton Cowser since he's a lefty bat with a 123 wRC+. Standard corner platoon bat. Oh, and let the Mets know Nimmo is in the same boat. Luckily for the Guardians Josh Naylor is at a 124 wRC+ so he's good enough not to be a platoon bat, but a week long slump and he's just a standard corner platoon bat, too.
  7. chpettit19
    Come on. At least be honest about that not at all playing at 3B. A .324 slugging doesn't touch anywhere close to a usable 3B, no matter how good your glove is.
  8. chpettit19
    Well Gunnar played half his games at 3B last year. 76 starts at 3B, 77 at SS, 11 at DH. How does .293/.324 play at 3B and DH? If you never give him, or any other lefty, the chance you doom yourself to a perpetual cycle of rostering Margot and Farmer types. And eventually those guys are always going to have to take a starting spot and will always face more righties than lefties. Never giving yourself a chance to have a lefty who can hit lefties is a bad strategy. Are they going to let Jenkins and Emma hit lefties when they come up? Or do people want to argue those 2 should automatically be added to the "lefties can't hit lefties" train, too?
  9. chpettit19
    It is a lack of logic because it's the guaranteed outcome. Or are you going to argue that the logical thing was that everyone on the team was going to perform and stay healthy all season so Margot was only ever going to face lefties? What's nuts is thinking this wasn't always the situation Margot was going to find himself in. Just like last year when Farmer saw 241 PAs against righties and only 128 against lefties even though they only wanted him to face lefties. Nobody you roster for more than short stints is ever going to face more lefties than righties. That's the flawed logic. And it isn't hard to see. Tony Oliva didn't have the technology we have today. Tony didn't have things like Trajekt Arc that can spin the ball with the exact velo, spin, and movement of any left-handed pitcher in the majors. His only option to improve was to face a lefty bullpen arm throwing weak pitches to him or hope he faced lefties in games. If struggling in 10 PAs against lefties during the month of August is going to tank Wallner's psyche they should've traded him on Tuesday.
  10. chpettit19
    Then why does Manuel Margot have more PAs against righties than lefties? If it's about performance and splits matter, Margot should never see a righty. Ever. But he does. More than he sees lefties. He simply hasn't done anything to allow his manager to play him. But his manager does play him. The Twins actively sit Wallner and Larnach and Kirilloff and Julien and all the lefties against lefties to avoid their cumulative .243/.292/.340/.632 line against lefties in 113 PAs but get Margot in there where he's put up a .205/.262/.274/.535 line against righties in 126 PAs. 74 PAs against lefties is beyond a small sample size. It's a useless sample size. He can't do anything to allow his manager to play him if he isn't first given the chance to play. The Twins have a hard and fast rule that lefties don't face lefties unless they absolutely have to. It's a bad strategy that never allows your lefties to show they can hit lefties. Gunnar Henderson in 2022 against lefties: .130/.231/.217/.448 in 26 PAs. Gunnar Henderson in 2023 against lefties: .210/.293/.324/.618 in 167 PAs. Gunnar Henderson in 2024 against lefties: .242/.367/.476/.843 in 150 PAs. Lefties can hit lefties. And lefties who start out poorly against lefties can get better. But they have to be given the chance.
  11. chpettit19
    And some of us are saying it's a mistake. There were 212 players to get 400 PAs last season. 29 hit 30 HRs. 52 hit 25. Jose Siri jumps in at the 25 mark as well if you take away all PA requirements. 53 guys in all of baseball hit at least 25 HRs last year. 29 hit 30. 2 guys with fewer than 500 PAs hit 30 HRs. Their names are J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge. If Wallner can hit 30 HRs in 400 PAs and the Twins are actively keeping him from getting 650+ PAs instead, they are making a mistake. Obviously his HR per PA numbers would go down with more PAs against lefties, but if you have someone putting up top 30 in baseball numbers in 400 PAs it's doing a disservice to that player and your team to not see if they can adapt and put up top 10 in baseball numbers in 650 PAs.
  12. chpettit19
    The Rockies front office has a better understanding of what's going on than we do, but they're terrible. The idea that front offices are automatically correct is nonsense. The Central has been an historically bad division the last few years and the Twins finished under .500 in it twice. There's certainly room to question their moves. You make the argument yourself by pointing out Mahle and Lopez. Mahle and Lopez were horrid trades. Sometimes not making trades is horrid. Inaction is not automatically better. You asked who was traded that I thought would help the Twins. I answered. You claimed making mediocre trades could/would mess with the clubhouse. I provided information that players have stated that not making deals messed with the clubhouse. Each time I say something you just move the goalposts. Not a productive conversation. This deadline isn't the end of the world. Rocco himself stated the time was now, though. Multiple players before the deadline stated publicly they were hoping to see moves. After the deadline multiple players expressed frustration and used the term "disheartened." Not making deals has it's own consequences.
  13. chpettit19
    If the Twins have someone hitting 30ish HRs in 400ish PAs they better not be purposefully limiting their PAs.
  14. chpettit19
    Yeah, I don't see anyone on that list I'd say have to be protected. I'd like them to give Kiersey or Severino a September callup. I don't see them having Kiersey, Severino, and Emma all on the 40-man with no MLB experience. It's just not their style. Maybe the 40-man him and DFA him or Severino at some point later in the offseason when they find a veteran they like? If I'm him, though, I'm doing my due diligence on every team. Well, having my agent do it.
  15. chpettit19
    Yeah, not sure how I missed that one
  16. chpettit19
    jack Flaherty, Tanner Scott, Gregory Soto, Huascar Brazoban, JT Chargois, Lucas Erceg, Lucas Sims, Mark Leiter Jr, Yusei Kikuchi, Lane Thomas, Michael Kopech, Eric Fedde, Tommy Pham, Michael Lorenzen, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adams, Carlos Estevez, Jazz Chisholm, Zach Eflin, Yimi Garcia, and Randy Arozarena are all players I think are better than at least 1 player on the Twins current roster that were traded. I don't know what the demands for Fedde and Flaherty were (I don't believe it was Lee, Jenkins, or Emma with no wiggle room) so I don't know if I would've met them. No, I wouldn't have given up that much for Kikuchi. All I was doing was stating that making mediocre trades isn't the only thing that can mess with a clubhouse. Not making deals can, too. "Disheartening" is not a great word to hear coming out of the clubhouse. Not making moves has consequences, too.
  17. chpettit19
    Do you know if he's a minor league FA after the year? I'd guess he is, but I'm not sure. If I'm him I'm not re-signing here too quickly. I'd be taking a hard look at every team's AAA and MLB OF situations and seeing if there's a different team I think I could break through on. There has to be a few out there who he'd have a better shot at seeing the majors. If I'm his agent I'm telling the Twins he needs a 40-man spot or he's going somewhere else. Even with Kepler leaving. If they non-tender Kirilloff maybe it changes the equation, though.
  18. chpettit19
    The Rays did it this year.
  19. chpettit19
    Not improving the team can also "mess up your team chemistry." Dan Hayes has an article on The Athletic quoting players about being disappointed they didn't get any reinforcements. "Disheartened" was the word they used. There's pros and cons to both making moves and not. Not making moves can also disrupt the clubhouse.
  20. chpettit19
    Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a rental to a team you don't play again this season (Detroit)? Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a guy with 1 more year on their deal to a division rival when you're rebuilding next year anyways (Chicago)? Focusing on other teams when you're rebuilding is a terrible strategy. Who cares where your guys go, especially when they're rentals or on short deals? The focus should be on getting the best possible package to help your team get back to being competitive. If the Sox (or Tigers) did in fact take lesser packages just to keep Fedde or Flaherty out of the division they are going to continue to bring up the rear in the central. "The ask" should always be to top whatever your best offer from another team is. The Twins giving prospects to a division rival should've been far more of a concern than Detroit or Chicago giving the Twins Flaherty or Fedde. And it shouldn't have been much of a concern at all. Build your best team. Worrying about who you trade with does nothing but hurt your ability to build your best team.
  21. chpettit19
    I was watching MLB Network during deadline day and they were talking about the different strategies each head baseball guy takes. Gave a stat that something like 3% of all prospects traded since 2013 have become "impact players." I don't know what they were considering "impact," but it explains why guys like Preller just go nuts sometimes and take big swings. If you're just taking a cold, hard, mathematical look at things your best odds are to trade prospects for above average current players because so few prospects actually reach the point where they become above average.
  22. chpettit19
    Count me among the skeptical about the idea that the Tigers and Sox wouldn't make realistic deals with the Twins. I don't buy it. Fedde has another year on his deal, but the Sox aren't dumb enough to think they're going to be competitive next year anyways. Flaherty is a rental. Taking a lesser package for either of them to keep them out of the division for a year you're not going to be competitive or the rest of this year would be horrible management. The only way the Sox were demanding Jenkins, Lee, or Emma is if they think Vargas would be the 4th best prospect in the Twins system. I don't think they believe that, but I suppose it's possible.
  23. chpettit19
    You don't believe Nestor Cortez could've helped this team win this year? I think one could make a pretty solid argument that another starter is more needed than a defense first right fielder for this team.
  24. chpettit19
    Going to be a very fun last couple months of the season. Looks to me like 8 teams fighting for 6 spots. Texas has a lot of talent and are hoping to get some big name guys back (and just got Jung back) so it's possible they have a 12 game winning streak in them to jump right back into the fray as well. Twins can't afford a lengthy losing streak of any sort. KC and Cleveland both have significantly better run differentials than the Twins. KC actually has the best expected w/l record in the division. They are +1 in the win column on the Twins right now. I agree with others that winning the division is important and they need to do all they can to get that top spot. Cleveland has 55 games left. If they go 28-27 they end up with 93 wins. The Royals have 53 games left. They need to go 34-19 to top 93 wins. The Twins have 55 games left. They have to go 35-20 the rest of the way to top 93 wins. That is very little margin for error to take the division. Twins have their work cut out for them there.
  25. chpettit19
    If it's hot it's because Pohlad is ready to make him the scapegoat. I'd bet it's more likely Falvey leaves of his own free will than he gets fired. I don't agree with everything Falvey does, but he'd get another job in an instant if he was fired.
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