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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    These are trades where the Twins were the "buyers." The Cruz/Ryan deal was the Twins being "sellers."
  2. chpettit19
    Depending on which WAR you like, Steer was a 1.9-3.5 WAR player last year. So anywhere from 7th best to absolute best position player on the Twins roster last year. I just don't buy that the Twins are so good that they don't have room for a 2-3 WAR player. But my overall point is that there are chances for every decent to good to great prospect on every team, it's just a matter of that team giving the guy a chance. There's no such thing as a prospect that is redundant. Larnach, Wallner, and Kirilloff have been redundant for years (especially when you add in Kepler), yet none of them have been able to claim a starting job for more than a few months. Julien is part of the argument for not needing Steer, yet he's back in AAA continuing to struggle. Lewis has been an argument for not needing a lot of guys yet he still hasn't played 100 games in the majors after having been part of the plan for the 2021 team. Manuel Margot's specialty is hitting lefties, but his career line against lefties is barely better than Steer's against righties. None of this means the Twins shouldn't have traded Steer, et al for Mahle. But you listed Polanco, Arraez, AK, Miranda, Larnach, Wallner, Gordon, Julien, Lee, and Martin as the reasons he was expendable. 3 of them are no longer with the Twins. 2.5 of them (Wallner and Julien with AK being the .5 because he was/is going to be demoted) are in AAA. 1 of them missed basically all of last year (Miranda). 1 is maybe saving his future with the Twins by finally maintaining some semblance of production (Larnach). 1 just debuted (Lee). And one has tumbled down the "prospect list" and has been up and down (Martin). Who would you take over Steer right now from the guys left with this team? Lee and Miranda? Anyone else? Log jams of talent don't exist. There isn't any prospect that we don't need. It's a numbers game. Steer was expendable because of these other guys? Sure doesn't look like it right now. I thought it was a good trade at the time because I didn't think Steer would be this good. But the idea that a prospect isn't needed because we have other guys who rank higher should never be the logic for a trade. Because guessing which of those guys actually turns out is a fool's errand. Prospects miss all the time. At this point Lee and Miranda look like the only 2 guys on the list of youngsters from 2022 (and Lee was just drafted at that point so shouldn't have been a reason to trade anyone since he'd literally never played a professional game of baseball when Steer was traded) who were better bets than Steer. Trades happen, and prospects will always be the capital used in them, but there's no such thing as a redundant prospect. It's a numbers game. You need them all because most are going to miss.
  3. chpettit19
    While I agree with the general idea here, that 2022 Twins team finished with 78 wins. Billy Hamilton, Caleb Hamilton, Tim Beckham, Mark Contreras, Kyle Garlick, Jake Cave, Gilberto Celestino, and Jermaine Palacios were getting ABs for that team (plus a few horrible catchers, but Steer obviously wouldn't have taken those ABs). There were chances to get Steer looks on that team if he hadn't been traded. Then going into 2023 they likely don't sign Donovan Solano as a 1B/2B option because Steer is taking those ABs. Jordan Luplow, Andrew Stevenson, and Kyle Garlick got ABs for the Twins last year. I agree that simply looking at WAR can distort things because of opportunity, but I don't agree with the idea that the Twins had no place for Spencer Steer. He would have made the 40-man in September of 2022 if he were still with the Twins and would've taken Solano's 450 PAs last year. That doesn't make it unreasonable to trade him, but he would've had a role with the Twins pretty easily.
  4. chpettit19
    Looks like Stewart to the 60 day is the move they made on the 40-man. Lewis on the 10-day. Congrats to Brooks. Let's hope he hits the ground running and makes it impossible for them to send him back whenever Royce is ready again.
  5. chpettit19
    Dang, hitting .426 for a month with more walks than strike outs and power to go with it (.688 slug) doesn't get you hitter of the month?
  6. chpettit19
    I just used his baseball savant percentages. They use PAs not ABs.
  7. chpettit19
    FYI, he's below his career norm in K%, but above his 2019-2021 stretch which was the best run of his career. He's at 27.5% this year compared to a career 29.2%, and 30.4% and 31.4% the last 2 years. So some improvement for sure.
  8. chpettit19
    Are we grading process or results? Process was ok (not great, not horrid) for these deadlines. Results were a mixed bag, with the Mahle and Lopez deals being so horrendous they will be brought up in Falvine lore forever.
  9. chpettit19
    I'm just going to assume sarcasm in all of this and move on. But will note there were 189 guys with at least 100 PAs last year that earned enough bWAR/Game to have reached 2 WAR in 150 games. That's about 6 guys per team. If Wallner, Julien, Lee, and Keirsey have to be good enough to be a top 6 player on an MLB team right now or have no future value I think you're going to find a lot of teams have a lot of young players who have no future value. If you get wild and jump that number to 200 PAs as the cutoff you're down to 174 position players. Now you're below 6 guys per team. 300 PAs? 162 guys (5.4 guys per team). 502 to qualify for a batting title? 94 position players. So just over 3 guys per team. Tough crowd if 2 WAR is your requirement. 87 qualified hitters reached 2 fWAR last year. 133 total hitters.
  10. chpettit19
    Totally fair. FYI, his OPS against righties since May 1 is .825. I admit I'm not a huge Santana believer. I don't think he can maintain that kind of production since he hasn't done anywhere close to that well since 2019. I certainly hope he keeps doing it, and I appreciate his defense (especially with Miranda and Lewis throwing it from 3B), but I'm not willing to bet he can maintain that kind of production over the next 3+ months. I've been wrong about him so far, and I hope he continues to make me eat crow, but the last 4 years suggest his overall .715 OPS against righties is probably the safer bet. And I hope Lee, Wallner, Julien, or Keirsey can provide better than that. The Twins are in a very weird spot with their roster being so healthy and so many young guys still trying to figure it out. Will be fun to watch who gets chances as injuries start popping up again, or they finally move on from Farmer. I'm excited to see which guys can take a job and run with it. But your point on Santana's recent performance is a very good one, and I must admit he's been doing far better than I expected recently.
  11. chpettit19
    So if they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level now they have no value in the future? Isn't it possible they get better and are able to produce at that level, or better, at a later point in time? Ed Julien has 0.6 bWAR in 58 games this year. Max Kepler has 1.2 in 60 games. Wallner had -0.1 in his 13 game disaster. Brooks Lee has played 57 total games at AAA, he's no sure thing to outdo a 1.2 WAR per 60 game performance right out of the gate. Keirsey is interesting and I wish we would get a chance to see what he can do in the majors. Kyle Farmer has -.05 bWAR in 57 games. That's a 1.7 WAR difference between him and Kepler in roughly 60 games. That's a 4.6 WAR player over a full season. That leaves an awful lot of space between being a massive upgrade over Farmer, but not being an upgrade over Kepler. I would be fine moving on from Farmer, Kepler, Margot, and a number of other guys for some different roster construction options, but there's a huge gap between Farmer and Kepler. And just because people don't think already demoted guys or completely unproven prospects can produce at a 2 WAR clip right now doesn't mean "they're of no future value." Injuries are going to happen again and doors will open. Hopefully all the young guys kick them in when they get their chances.
  12. chpettit19
    Santana is still not very good against righties. Miranda and Lewis should start every day, but the Twins should be able to find someone else on the roster who can OPS better than .715 against righties. I don't know that they have a better option on the roster at this very second, but generally speaking they should be able to find a 1B/DH who can OPS significantly better than Santana against righties. He shouldn't be an everyday player.
  13. chpettit19
    I don't see a QO in Kepler's future. The Twins won't risk having to pay him over 20 mil next year. I also don't see the Twins trading Kepler. They're trying to win and their belief seems to be pretty strongly that veterans are the way to do that unless a prospect gets a chance as an injury fill in and goes off. It also would appear the rest of the league doesn't value Kepler the way the Twins do based on all the trade rumors but no trades happening. The Twins want a certain return for him and have never been able to get it. Doubt that changes now.
  14. chpettit19
    Lewis tagging up on a leadoff fly ball to right center was the right baseball play. Just didn't work out because of a perfect throw. That wasn't a "sloppy baseball" play. It was just the other team making a great play.
  15. chpettit19
    While I agree Rocco was terrible last night, the Twins are 14-10 in 1 run games. They were 14-5 before this little streak of 1 run losses. Was management the reason they were so unbelievable in 1 run games before?
  16. chpettit19
    Their whole lines: Prato- .255/.402/.435/.837 in 455 PAs Severino- .272/.352/.546/.898 in 528 PAs 1. Would a team take a chance on a 23 year old who lead the minors in HRs while playing in the upper minors? Probably. 2. Would he have started the season the same way playing for a major league team? We'll never know. The A's have given Lawrence Butler 147 PAs over 50 games with a 58 wRC+. Seth Brown wRC+ of 64 in 63 games and 195 PAs. 244 PAs in 61 games for Zack Gelof and his wRC+ of 72. All of those guys have options and are still getting run because teams that aren't trying to win give young guys with upside chances. And just because the other team wanted to take him off their 26-man doesn't mean the Twins would have him back right now. The bigger likelihood is that he'd be putting up these numbers with another team's AAA squad and be getting a chance because the Twins took 150K and put it in their pocket instead of taking him back. And he OPS'd .907 in 2022. So his age 22 and 23 seasons were a .907 and .898 OPS while leading the minors in HRs playing in AA and AAA as a 23 year old. The A's took Ryan Noda the year before coming off a .904 and .870 OPS the 2 previous years at AA and AAA as a 25 and 26 year old. I think they may have looked at Severino pretty closely.
  17. chpettit19
    The Twins did lose games last year because Correa was "off kilter." Your defense doesn't matter if they don't hit the ball to you. You know you're going to get ABs every game. You don't know you're going to get the ball hit to you. Defense is important. Absolutely. Nobody is saying it isn't. It is not as important as hitting. Because if you can't score you can't win. League average defensive chances (putouts, assists, and errors) last year was 5794. League average plate appearances was 6137. The average team had 400 more PAs than defensive plays last year. Nico Hoerner lead non-1B/C position players with 667 chances last year. Marcus Semien lead baseball with 753 PAs. The guy who had the ball hit to him the most in the majors was nearly 100 plays behind the guy who stepped to the plate the most. Nico himself stepped to the plate 688 times. So even the league leader in defensive chances hat more PAs than chances. Semian had 664 chances, for what it's worth. Trea Turner lead the league in errors with 23. That's an error every 6.65 games. Guy at the top of the order would get 4 PAs a game probably. So he had 1 error for every 26.6 PAs he had. There are more offensive chances, and fewer defensive screw ups. Teams care about defense, but offense is king.
  18. chpettit19
    The Dodgers didn't "have to" put Mookie at short. Miguel Rojas is actually one of the better SS defenders in baseball. But he's historically not hit so well so they went with Mookie to get their best offensive team on the field. And the Twins played Andrelton Simmons at SS and lost a bunch of games because of it. Because he couldn't hit. Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis are much more than "zero reason." They are a very good reason to put Lee at 2B if they think he's the best all around player available and that's the alignment that is best defensively (plus roster considerations). They actually make the Twins "want to" put him at 2B. Kyle Farmer isn't holding Brooks Lee back. The Twins won't DFA Farmer to get Lee up for 30 PAs a month. Farmer interestingly has a job still because his role is so small it's not worth replacing him. The Twins put Julien at 2B last year even though he wasn't a good defender. Your belief that they're letting defense outweigh offense is simply wrong. That may be your approach, but it's not how MLB teams operate. If you can hit they'll find you a place to defend even if you're bad. And we've been over the defensive numbers already. Teams aren't using those to determine who's good on defense. The Twins aren't hopping on fangraphs, baseball ref, or baseball savant to see if they think Brooks Lee (or anyone else) can field a certain position to their standards. They have coaches and other internal personnel to decide that. They aren't using arbitrary grades from dudes deciding how hard a play was to figure out who to play where.
  19. chpettit19
    .245/.328/.540/.869 37.5% K rate .258/.375/.475/.851 34.8% K rate Which one is the next Bryce Harper and which one is a AAAA hitter? Last 28 days: .326/.396/.758/1.154 33.6% K rate .463/.589/.776/1.365 22.3% K rate Which one has been "raking for months" and which one is a AAAA hitter? The first hitter is 26 years old and in his third season at AAA (178 games and 805 PAs). The 2nd hitter is 24 and in his 2nd season at AAA (103 games and 446 PAs). For the record, this isn't a shot at you or Wallner. Just pointing out that he's doing everything Wallner has at a younger age. That's a player teams take a chance on.
  20. chpettit19
    Yet the Twins do it. Maybe start saying "I hope they don't" or "I wouldn't" instead of "the Twins won't." Because the Twins do. They put Sano in RF for goodness sake. The Dodgers put Mookie at SS this year despite only having played 13 games there in the minors over a decade ago. You wouldn't do these things, but major league teams do it. A lot. Including the Twins. The Nats put Trea Turner in CF after 6 minor league games there. It happens all the time. Whether you'd do it or not. The Twins would and have done this. The Padres made 20 year old Jackson Merrill their starting CFer this year despite having never played there in a game in his life.
  21. chpettit19
    The Twins put Lewis at 3B after a whopping 13 games played there in the minors. Put him in CF after 2 minor league games (and 5 fall league games) there. The Twins put Luis Arraez at 1B in the majors despite having played only 1 game there his entire minor league career (and that was in rookie ball as a 17 year old). Put him in LF after 10 minor league games there (6 of which were in rookie ball as an 18 year old). The Twins put Nick Gordon in CF with 0 games played there in the minors. The Twins put Jorge Polanco at 3B with about 15 games played there in the minors. The Mariners put Tim Beckham in LF for 12 games with 0 games played there in the minors. 3 years later the Twins put him back out there with no more games played in the OF between those stints. You keep saying the Twins "are not going to put Lee at 2nd" because he hasn't played there in the minors much. I think it's pretty clear the Twins aren't on the same page as you on not playing guys at spots in the majors they don't have a lot of experience with in the minors.
  22. chpettit19
    Based on talent? Should absolutely extend him for whatever it takes without regard to market size or anything else. Based on games played? Should stay far, far away from an extension. I don't know how they come up with a creative enough extension that would make it worth both sides signing. He's hurt too much for the Twins to go all in, but he's got the chance to make unreal money with 1 or 2 healthy seasons so can't sign now.
  23. chpettit19
    Wow, Yunior.
  24. chpettit19
    The Guardians aren't a slap hitting team this year. They were last year when they couldn't score. They're 6th in baseball in ISO this year. 9th in slugging. 8th in homeruns. 9th in wRC+. MN ranks 4th, 4th, 6th, and 8th in those categories. These aren't the same old Guardians dinking and dunking their way to runs. They're hitting for power. And that's why they've gone from 27th in runs last year to 5th this year.
  25. chpettit19
    Tony Kemp and Michael Helman are your arguments for the Twins trying to win? Yikes.
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