Jump to content
Can the Twins close out a game against the Reds and get back in the win column? Join the conversation! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

chpettit19

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,094

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    167

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Good for him. Excited to see what he can do. Him and SWR both succeeding this year in the rotation would be a massive development for this team and organization as a whole.
  2. chpettit19
    To be fair, Arizona is 2 games under .500, Pavin Smith and Jorge Barrosa are the 2 outfielders on their 40-man they could replace him with, and they don't have any other big time young outfielders close to the majors. Not all rosters are created equal. The Twins have better options to replace Julien and Kirilloff than the Diamondbacks have to replace Carroll.
  3. chpettit19
    No. I didn't. I started with an assumption that Matt Wallner had figured things out and the Twins should call him up. I formulated an opinion after looking at his entire stat line that what actually happened was Matt Wallner figured out the Louisville Bats and not AAA pitching in general. I asked about the Bats because that other poster and I had already had this discussion on another thread and he didn't want to admit that Wallner's numbers against everybody else were not good. He came on this thread and started making the same claims about Wallner having figured things out so I wanted them to address the elephant in the room of him dominating Louisville but struggling against everyone else. I don't honestly care about how good Louisville's staff is. That isn't the point. The point is Matt Wallner hasn't figured out AAA pitching, he's figured out Louisville pitching. You chose to quote my comment that listed his entire AAA line and accuse me of cherry picking. Now I've explained what the process actually was 3 times. Either believe me or don't, I don't care. I looked at his game log and came to a conclusion. That's the entire story. That's how data analysis works. Look at data and draw a conclusion. Weird thing is that you agree with my conclusion, but are set on coming after me anyways for reasons unknown. Have a great rest of your day.
  4. chpettit19
    And that was a question I asked because I'd looked at his AAA game logs and saw that he'd destroyed Louisville with an OPS over 1.300 while struggling to an OPS of .720ish against everybody else. My conclusion was drawn after having looked at his AAA performance as a whole. The other poster didn't actually answer my question because they knew the answer, so I presented all of the data, including the vast difference when he faces Louisville, and at that point you accused me of cherry picking so I've since tried to explain that I wasn't cherry picking I was providing an opinion based on looking at his stats as a whole and drawing conclusions from the pretty dramatic splits of him nearly doubling his OPS against them than what he had against the rest of the league.
  5. chpettit19
    Again, I didn't just use Toledo. The comment you initially responded to literally listed his entire AAA stat line, and then included over a month of stats outside of Louisville. My conclusion was drawn from the parsing of data, not the other way around. I thought "dang, Wallner videos have been popping up all over my social media this week (the week they were playing Louisville) I should see if he's figured things out." Then I went to his baseball reference page and pulled up his game log and saw it bright as day that he'd been on a very short tear. I looked more into it (and I'm not the only one, there were multiple others on this site who pointed out the same thing) and saw that he'd dominated Louisville in 2 series and struggled pretty much everywhere else. That isn't cherry picking. That was me being interested in what he was doing, looking at data, and drawing a conclusion. Your assumption that I had my conclusion before I looked at the data is wrong. I went into it thinking it may be time to call him back up because he may have figured things out. I analyzed the data to the best of my ability and drew a conclusion. I presented that conclusion here. Of course his HRs vs Louisville matter, and I presented them as well. I presented every last bit of data that was available to me and gave an opinion about it. I gave his entire AAA line. That isn't cherry picking. That's drawing a conclusion based on all the available data. But this conversation isn't going anywhere. You can feel free to believe whatever you'd like about the order of things. But my original thought was that I was going to find a Matt Wallner who'd figured things out and I'd have something to complain on here about because the Twins were doing like last year and not calling him up when he'd figured things out. The data changed that to me drawing the conclusion that he hadn't figured things out and just owns Louisville (no matter how good their staff is). And his series against Toledo just provided more data to confirm my opinion.
  6. chpettit19
    Will be interesting to see who they call up for the rotation. Varland get another go? Festa going to be added to the 40-man? Boushley get a start? Not just for the first missed Paddack start but for the following ones. Will be interesting to see who gets a shot.
  7. chpettit19
    They both fetched a top 100 prospect type guy last year with the Mets eating a bunch of money to upgrade the prospect return. I don't think it'd cost the Twins a top 100 guy this year, but it'd still have to be a pretty solid prospect if they want those teams to eat money. That being said, I still don't think these guys are even on the Twins radar. They don't like trading for rental starters. They want arms with control. These guys are not the type of guys the Twins chase.
  8. chpettit19
    I don't know that their pen is super overused. They're 11th in relief innings. Higher than they'd like, I'm sure, but they only have 18 more pen innings on the year than the Twins do. Less than an out per game. They'd probably like to slow their usage of Clase, but he only has 3 innings more than Jax.
  9. chpettit19
    Because his production against them is nearly twice as good as it's been against the rest of the league. The sample size is small enough that that extreme production in 12 games can be stretched over a month and make him look like he's been doing great. That's what other posters were doing to match their preconceived conclusions. Critical analysis is not "being a hater." It's not cherry picking to point out the extreme outlier in a small sample size that is skewing his data. I didn't hide data, I didn't run from data. I provided his overall line that included every single one of his AAA at bats this year up until the point of that post. I then provided my opinion on his performance and pointed out that his performance against 1 team is really skewing his data and people were making claims about his overall performance that I disagreed with. I explained my reasoning. You agree with my reasoning, apparently, but don't like that I have the same stance as you. I don't know what to say to that. I don't know how else to say "he's actually not performing that well against the vast majority of AAA pitching" without it being negative. You're going to find this a lot on this site. Not just from me, but from a lot of posters. There will be positive and negative opinions about the same player. There will be different analysis of data. It's what takes place in front offices as well. The Twins aren't "being haters" by critically analyzing his performance and choosing to not IL Kepler and call him up. It's what makes Twins Daily so great. A lot of really smart people making a lot of really well informed and nuanced arguments. It's what keeps us coming back. It's not being a hater to say a player isn't playing that well. It's just giving an informed opinion. With data to back it up in this situation.
  10. chpettit19
    Confused as to why so many people are confused by Cleveland being good. This team didn't come out of nowhere. Last year is the only year since 2016 that they weren't first or 2nd in the Central. Their W-L matches their pythag W-L. This has been a consistently good team for years. Are they going to win 100+ games? I wouldn't bet on that. But neither are the Twins. Cleveland has 50 wins with 86 games to go. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way (which isn't unreasonable at all) they end up with 93 wins. The Twins have 43 wins with 84 games to go. To get to 93 wins they need to go 50-34 the rest of the way. That's a 98 win pace. The Twins have their work cut out for them. If I had to bet my life on one team right now I'll take the Twins squeaking out the division, but I'm not confident about that at all. Cleveland finishing 3rd or 4th in the division is an incredible prediction. And that's a bet I'd be very confident taking the other side on.
  11. chpettit19
    In their series after the Bats he went 4 for 23 with 14 strike outs. I didn't say they should cut him or he's doomed to never see the majors again. I'm not defaulting to being a hater, I'm looking critically at Matt Wallner's AAA production. The other poster has claimed Wallner has been raking for months and there's people all over these boards calling for him to be recalled because he destroyed the Bats again. Matt Wallner hasn't raked for months, and his performance against everyone else in AAA has been below average. The truth is he's a 26 year old in his 3rd stint at AAA continuing to strike out at a very high rate. I'm not calling for his release, but he has a very real hole in his swing and it's not being a hater to point that out. I promise you the Twins are looking at the same things.
  12. chpettit19
    Yes, I was agreeing that his contact rates are his problem. But when you're going the other way nearly 40% of the time in multiple seasons that's far more than "goes the other way sometimes." There are very few hitters in baseball who aren't primarily trying to pull the ball. If being 10+% higher than average going the other way isn't enough to not qualify as "pull happy" maybe the definition of "pull happy" being used isn't correct. Your comp, Buxton, goes the other way less than 20% of the time. Sabato nearly doubles him most of the time.
  13. chpettit19
    Sabato isn't really that pull happy of a player. He goes to the opposite field more than the average MLB hitter. MLB average is just about 25% Oppo. Sabato has been at 39, 31, 28, 29, 27 percents at his stops before this year. This year he's right on the MLB average of 25.3%. He doesn't use the middle of the field much, but he's not just a dead pull hitter. He goes the other way a significant amount. That doesn't mean I'm sold on him at all, and I don't see any way the Twins put him on the 40-man after the season and wouldn't expect him to be selected in the Rule 5. But his struggles aren't because he's pull-happy. He just can't hit the ball frequently enough.
  14. chpettit19
    That actually doesn't answer my question. I do appreciate the "whatever" when you point out you're actively leaving out a large chunk of the data by ignoring relievers, though. Here's the answer to my question: Matt Wallner's overall AAA line is .244/.329/.545/.875 with 17 HRs and 79 Ks in 209 ABs. Not bad quad slash and HRs really. Against Louisville Matt Wallner has a .404/.439/.904/1.342 line with 8 HRs and 15 Ks in 52 ABs. Against all the other AAA pitching he's faced Matt Wallner has a .191/.295/.427/.722 line with 9 HRs and 64 Ks in 157 ABs. Want to take out his first 2 series in AAA before he went off against the Bats the first time? OK. In the 31 games between the Louisville series he had a .196/.308/.455/.764 line with 7 HRs and 43 Ks in 112 ABs. And after the most recent series with the Bats he's gone 1 for 11 with 7 Ks. Matt Wallner has absolutely demolished Louisville Bat pitching. He has been solidly below average against the rest of the AAA pitching he's faced. I know you're going to thumbs down this and continue to deny these facts, so I'll take my leave. We're all cheering for Matt and want him to succeed. But the numbers are pretty clear here. He's not what he was last year at this moment. I really hope he gets back there, but maintaining that kind of production after Houston showed the league his play book in the postseason was never going to be easy.
  15. chpettit19
    What is Matt Wallner's AAA line against everyone outside the Louisville Bats and their horrendous staff?
  16. chpettit19
    Wallner is 1 for his last 11 with 7 Ks since they got back from Louisville. He's not ready. But I do agree they can't do the "day to day" dance with Kepler this year. Either IL him or play him.
  17. chpettit19
    Emma isn't getting called up on 8/1 or 9/1. He's hurt and is likely out for a pretty significant amount of time. Keirsey is also hurt, but should be back soon, hopefully.
  18. chpettit19
    FYI, Lee started at 2B yesterday. Certainly not any sign of a move today, but they do look like they're starting that plan.
  19. chpettit19
    Wallner has been hitting the Louisville Bats lately. Outside of facing that pitching staff he hasn't been great. In the 3 games since the Bats series Matt Wallner is 1 for 11 with 7 strike outs, 1 HR, and 2 walks. Outside of facing the horrid Louisville pitching staff Wallner really hasn't done much at all in AAA. 8 of his 17 HRs have come in 12 games against Louisville. I think waiting a couple more series against non-Louisville teams is probably prudent. If Kep goes on the IL it will be interesting to see what they do.
  20. chpettit19
    And apparently don't care that much about their ace's preferred catcher.
  21. chpettit19
    @Bodie and @Peter I see you both disagree with my statement that the Twins are 2nd in baseball in scoring guys from third with less than 2 outs (you can go look it up here if you don't believe me) and/or that the pitcher is also a pro and paid to not let guys score. I assume your stance on the Twins not being able to score the tying run in the bottom of the 10th is reversed when the Twins are the away team? If they score 0 or 1 run in the top of the 10th you believe the other team should score 100% of the time against the Twins pitching staff in the bottom of the 10th, correct? The Twins shouldn't have any pitchers capable of stopping another team from scoring a runner from 2nd base with no outs? So all extra inning games should only be won by a team that can score at least 2 runs in an inning? Or is it just the Twins who are held to the standard of always scoring that runner when they only need 1 run?
  22. chpettit19
    The MN Twins are 2nd in all of baseball at scoring a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs at a 59% success rate. League average is 51.8%. As it turns out the guy on the mound is a professional pitcher, too. He's paid to not let pro hitters score those guys.
  23. chpettit19
    I'm also fascinated to see where his contracts go from here. Interested to see if San Diego even tenders him an arb deal. Will be really telling about what the league thinks about him and that 1 tool when we see what he makes next year and moving forward.
  24. chpettit19
    Runs and RBI aren't stats I ever use to define how good or bad an individual player is. Just providing info for the other poster who suggested Arraez may be more valuable cuz he scores more cuz he's on more. He doesn't really score more, though. But I certainly wouldn't use that to say he isn't good. I'd take him on my team any day. But I do think it demonstrates why being a singles hitter isn't just automatically super valuable if you're slow. I love Arraez, but there's a reason guys like him aren't considered as valuable as guys with a lower BA but higher slugging.
  25. chpettit19
    Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. From May 7 through June 2 (so the 4 series after they finished with the Bats horrid pitching staff) Matt Wallner had a .180/.306./.427/.733 quad slash. A basically month long "bust" stretch can't just be written off as noise. Matt Wallner was not good until early June, when they played the Bats again. I don't know why that can't be an acceptable answer to you, but going 14 for 89 in AAA is not just bad BABIP luck. Actually, if you take the entire stretch between series against the Louisville Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764 in 31 games and 133 PAs. He was 22 for 112 with 43 Ks (K in nearly 40% of his ABs) between series against that horrid staff. Listen, you claimed he was "raking for months." That isn't true. He went .194/.256/.333/.590 in April in the 9 games before he played the Bats. In the 31 games between series against the Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764. There's your trend. In the first series against the Bats he went .240/.296/.480/.776. In the last series he went .519/.552/.1.148/.1.700 with a .500 BABIP. He hasn't hit over .200, had an OBP over .308, slugged over .455, or had an OPS over .764 outside of his absolute dominance of the Louisville Bats. A 31 games stretch of .196/.308/.455/.764 is not "raking." I'm sorry. I'm not going to continue with this conversation. Outside of the Louisville Bats series there has been absolutely no sustained stretch of production that comes anywhere close to "raking." There just hasn't been. He's dominated that pitching staff and been held under a .200 average against everyone else. That isn't raking. It just isn't. And there's nothing there to suggest he started finding his swing early. There just isn't. You don't get to just write off all his struggles as noise and claim that his dominance over a single opponent is actually the real Matt Wallner. Let's see what he does in the next few series against some non-Bats staffs.
×
×
  • Create New...