gunnarthor

I'm not sure what to think of Stewart. At the beginning of the season, in one of his chats, Klaw said fans worried about the lack of strike-outs were insane, that when the Twins took Stewart he "was more a thrower than a pitcher" and they were doing a "hell of a job" with him. But I don't know if his position has changed with another full season of - let's say strange - results. So, with Stewart, I really think it's wait and see. The Twins brass doesn't seem overly worried and they promoted him up the line. He pitched well, outside of strike outs, at A+. So, I really don't know what to make of him.

I think this is a solid group but they all seem to have a big question mark. I probably still like Meyer ahead of any of them. I've mentioned this before, but Jason Parks said Walker could be an elite prospect - IF he could get plate discipline. It doesn't look like that will happen. But man, what a fun lottery ticket he is. I like both Gonsalves and Stewart but I think Gonslaves ceiling is a backend starter. (I think only Berrios, Meyer, Stewart and Jay have the potential stuff to be a #2 or better in our org. A healthy Thorpe, too). I have no idea what to think of Stewart so I'll just hope and see what happens next year. I'm not as high on Polanco as others but I'm glad he's in our system. I think Burdi probably surprised me the most this year. I thought he'd destroy AA hitters and be on the ML roster by now. But he still looks like a great bullpen arm. Very exciting pitcher.

Nice interview, Seth. I mentioned it before but I really liked both the Blankenhorn and Cabbage picks. Hopefully, they become big time prospects for us.

Interesting list. Tough to rank guys like Javier who are only 16 so this feels like a safe spot for now. I'd probably keep Meyer higher - he was so disappointing that I understand the ranking but he's going to be a major leaguer and while he might not be the ace we dreamed of, he could still be what we all hope Burdi becomes. I'd probably still have him in the 6-8 range. I have no faith in Vielma until he starts hitting but smarter people seem to like him so that's good.

Yeah, I could see that. In fact, unless he doesn't want to do it, I think that's exactly what happens.

Really great career. He's not often compared to Mauer favorably but from 2001-2012, he amassed the same amount of WAR Mauer has in his 12 year career. Obviously, Mauer had bigger peaks and valleys. Nice career, hope he enjoys his retirement.

This sounds about right. The 2012 and 2013 Twins systems were absolutely loaded. Jason Parks said about the 2013 group that are #11-20 would be better than "3 or 4" teams 1-10. But those lists still included back up catchers and relief pitchers.

I really liked the Blankenhorn and Cabbage picks. I said about Cabbage and I think it goes for Blankenhorn as well that they both might take a little longer to develop, sort of like Kepler, but they were the nice upside picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds. I probably would have them both ranked close to each other in the 16-20ish area, myself, but I haven't really studied the system like Seth has.

I liked the Cabbage pick a lot but I think he'll develop a lot like Kepler - it may take a few seasons before he finally breaks out. He's probably ranked about right for now but if he was a stock, I'd buy it while it was low. I like Harrison more than most people do. His plate discipline is great, esp considering his age. But he does have to develop power. I think he can do that. He should be back in AA next year and we'll wait on his power to show up.

I'm not as high on Micheal as Thylos is but I do like him. I've always been impressed by his ability to get on base. I probably agree that he's most likely a role player but I think he's very close to meeting that, so I'd have him higher on the list. Also, Keaton Steele is a great name.

I do think some team will pay him more based on defense than other teams will. I'd love to have him (and I think defensive stats aren't good - which isn't the same as saying defense isn't important). But how you view stats is really going to affect how you view Heyward.

Heyward is interesting. His on-base skills are pretty awesome (even though they probably fall a bit going from the NL to AL). But he's going to get paid by someone based on defensive valuations and that team better hope they are measuring defense accurately. This article from the WSJ suggests they aren't. "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." We saw this play out a lot this year with the Hunter debate, since the defensive stats hated him. Now the stats love Heyward. If they are right, Heyward is a consistent 6+ WAR player. If not, he's a 4 WAR player. That's still a really good player but not a guy who is going to turn your team around.

I'm not if BP is actually meant to do much more than get stroke/swing down. I remember a few years ago a story about Delmon Young standing in against some of the Twins pitchers during their bullpen sessions with a bat but not swinging to get better plate discipline. I don't think we saw any improvement that year from Young.

Nice write up. It's far too early to worry about Buxton. Considering where he started this year, essentially having lost a whole year last year, he's fine. Interestingly, I remember that Ryan quote. TD damn near blew up about how Ryan didn't understand baseball.

Nice article, Seth. I think it's pretty clear that Molitor really likes Rosario and that Rosario has a pretty good competitive attitude that has helped him stay on an even keel in the majors. The OBP has to improve - SIckels had a nice piece about Rosario a few weeks back - but I think it will. I think I've been most surprised by his power playing so well up here. That has really been fun to see.

Yeah, Gonsalves for Storen straight up might be pretty close to the Jepsen trade (Storen's a bit better but less team control). I'd probably be ok with that although I don't know what the FA relief pitcher market looks like. That said, I was thinking something more like Storen for our 2nd round pick and a lesser prospect (Jake Reed, maybe).

Federalbaseball, the Nats TwinkieTown equivalent seems to think Storen won't be back - too many bridges burned. I think the price for Storen won't be that high - he has the injury so the Nats won't get to showcase him healthy. A deal somewhat similar to Jepsen might be enough - and the Nats and Twins certainly have been willing to trade before. The Twins also, IIRC, have a tradeable draft pick after the second round, which they could throw in for him.

Pretty confident that the Twins sent scouts to see him in person.

I think it really depends on the class. If you really love a guy and want to spend most of your money on him, fine. And some years it might make more sense to go the quantity route. In any event, over the last several years a lot of prospect guys have said nice things about the Twins in Latin America so it seems like they are doing one or two things right.

IIRC, everyone loved Sano but Polanco wasn't a top level signee and Kepler was a bit of a curiosity. I think it's not quite all about money as it is getting the right guys. In any event, I don't know how to link a tweet but Callis and Badler had a fun conversation: Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 20 hours ago Jim Callis retweeted Ben Badler And I remember how @Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez fourth overall to save $ to go all in on Sano. Whoops. Jim Callis added, Ben Badler @BenBadler The same year the Twins international scouts signed Miguel Sano, they also signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. What a monster class.

I believe that the Yankees are still allowed to sign individuals but they can't sign anyone for more than 300k.

Sure, why not?

I like Gonsalves but this is too high. We're putting too much stock in numbers and not as much on scouting reports, which still question him. But he's an exciting prospect.

And naturally the Twins have a .600 winning percent in NY over Gardy's last 3 years.

My bad, I thought the other guy was in the PCL for some reason.