gunnarthor

But I'm not sure if this isn't an oversimplification (or even fair to say they whiffed for six straight years b/c they didn't). We aren't looking at entire drafts, just the first round - which varies in number of selections each year. The end points are arbitrary (although I do think looking at Johnson's drafts would be more valid b/c we see a team change their draft philosophy). Looking at the 06-11 first round picks ignores the value the team got out of Valencia and Dozier. It also ignores the value they got from trading some of those players they drafted. And there are still some players in those drafts that could end up helping the team. A few years ago, people used to complain about the 04 draft but now that Plouffe has emerged, it doesn't look as bad. And you'd have to look at all teams drafts to figure things out. I do think it's safe to say that the Twins bombed the 06 draft, just as the Cards bombed the 04 draft. 07 and 09 seem like pretty good drafts though, considering where they were picking. 08 and 10 don't look good although Hicks and Rosario could change them. It's probably too early to call 11 a bust but it looks like the best case scenario of that draft would be a utility infielder and maybe a few relievers.

What was the Twins median pick? How many teams behind them did better?

Yeah, I'm not as worried about it as I think the beginning and end points are somewhat arbitrary and it doesn't take into account the different types of players drafted (HS pitcher, prep bat etc) or injuries but I do think it's fair to look at Johnson's drafts (08 on) as opposed to what we were doing before. Johnson has made a strong push for flamethrowers whereas Radcliff was much more likely to draft the college control arm. I preferred the Radcliff way but I'm in the minority. But fireballers means you have to take your shots on guys like Hunt and they don't always work out. (And I know it's an oversimplification - Johnson did take Wimmers and Radcliff did take Garza, for instance, but their drafts did have those tendencies).

It seemed people hated the Twins strategy of drafting under Radcliff, too. So Johnson decided to go after flamethrowers instead. I preferred Radcliff's strategy of grabbing college pitchers like Baker, Slowey etc. Alex Wood and his 90 mph fastball would have looked good in the second round. IIRC, the high school pitcher the Twins were linked to in 2012 was Rocheseter's Mitch Brown. But they passed on him and he struggled his first few years. Had a bit of a better year last year in low A but still far away. I don't have a problem with letting relievers start for as long as they can (Klaw has said the same thing). First, the Twins have a ton of potential impact bullpen arms so I'm not worried about which ones are actually used. Second, Johnson is hoping that one or two of these relievers can turn into a solid starter - or better. Individually, the odds are against them but as a large group (he drafted a bunch more in 2014), perhaps it works. I think the Rangers have had a little success moving solid relievers into starters. And lastly, the return on picks in the range the Twins were drafting relievers isn't particularly good. If they get one solid reliever out of the draft to go along with Buxton and Berrios, it's a great draft.

I don't think that sways many people - Steamer usually predicts low. In fact, they predicted 6 pitchers to be above 4 WAR and only 3 to pitch 200 innings (unless they haven't issued all players/teams yet. I confess to not caring). Hughes' projection is the 29th best WAR in MLB.

I think the point he's trying to make is that some stats are predictive and some stats tell us what happened. FIP isn't a very good predictive stat although you can argue that the ingredients in FIP are. That's why the changes in those rates might better explain Hughes outside of Yankee stadium. Most of the recent articles on fangraphs go in that general direction - "he's a good pitcher but real changes have made him better, etc, etc". I don't think anyone rationally expects him to be a 6 WAR pitcher again but he shouldn't fall back to the 2 WAR Yankee pitcher either.

Yeah, I think Hughes might have similar value this year although it might look slightly different. Fangraphs has had a number of articles on Hughes as of late. I think most everything can be summed up as "Hughes is a good pitcher" and the rest is semantics. He should throw another 210 innings for us this year and be pretty good.

I was an immigration attorney for a decade or so and one of the really interesting things (at least to me) was that many of my clients signatures looked different if they were signing it in Spanish or English, despite it being the same name and alphabet. You'd never think it was the same person's signature.

Nice deal for the Twins and it lets Hughes get one more big shot at FA when he's 32. Good for both of them.

I thought he passed the eye test in general but he did have some perplexing bad games where everything seemed to drop around him. His arm is legit, for sure.

I think Hicks should start the season in AAA and stay there until the bat comes around. Maybe give up switch hitting (although at this late stage I really don't think it'll help). But the Twins should not expect anything out of him until he hits more.

I like this pick, I might have gone with Cody Martin over Graham. Still, I like the idea of seeing what we might have in Graham. A pitcher coming back from injuries does have some red flags but if he does come all the way back, he could be pretty good. If not, he could be a strong pen piece.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/prospects/index.jsp The easy way to access their prospect stuff is to just type in www.mlbpipeline.com - that's the front page for all the minor league stuff, including the rule v draft.

That said, Berardino tweets that the Twins are on Graham

My guess is that the Twins take DeShields if he's there when they pick, if not, they'll nab one of the Atlanta pitchers (Martin or Graham).

Cody Martin - also from Atlanta - could be a good fit. Twins drafted him previously. He put up pretty solid numbers in AAA last year (10th in k/9 among starters) and the Twins would have seen him a few times since he's in the international league.

Of the FA pitchers, I'd be ok with Masterson. I'd rather go with May, Meyer, Milone than the others. No way should Liriano come back. He's the crazy ex-girlfriend. You broke up for a reason, don't forget that. Ryan could also make a trade or two to add to the pitching depth (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins added Cody Martin in the rule v draft and gave him every opportunity to win the 5th spot).

I'm not opposed to the idea of trying to grab someone like Bruce (or others in CIncy) but not at that price.

Actually, no. Santana, Vargas, Dozier and Plouffe. That was it.

Sure. If I was the Twins I'd say, "look what happened when Hughes, a flyball pitcher, came to us. 3rd best AL pitcher in WAR."

Not sure. It could turn out ok if some things break right. Hicks could be a good defender in left, maybe Buxton rushes to the majors. In any event, I doubt most players put much stock in defensive numbers. Fangraphs had a few articles on that last year and most players don't know about WAR, UZR etc. But a lot probably think "hey, Hunter, he's good." And leave it at that.

I think, from what I've read from players, it's Hunter's encouragement that has been helpful. He's not going to make a bad player good. But he might be able to get a player to better understand the daily grind, the problems of giving away at bats, leaving personal stuff at home, not worrying too much about an 0-7 stretch etc etc which might make them better at baseball. A lot of people in LA loved how Hunter kept the team together after the young pitcher was killed in that car accident.

i don't disagree that he's a bad fielder at this point. My problem is that I don't think defensive stats are accurately measured or accurately valued. So we may be multiplying a wrong number with another wrong number to create a (negative) value that is not consistent with reality. (We have seen that before, to a lesser extent, with Orlando Hudson). That Hunter seems to be at the extreme end, one year being so-so and two years after being terrific, makes me think that there is a lot of noise in the numbers. I'm also expecting that Molitor will move his OFers around a bit more than what may have happened in Detroit. He is old, he could turn into a pumpkin over night. But he hit pretty well last year and I think TF is a better place for his swing. So if he can put up a 110 OPS+ again, I think the Twins will be in good shape. But if his bat goes (and it's certainly possible), we might have two tough months of Hunter before he is let go.

These are my problems/concerns with the Hunter defense is horrible gang 1) Defensive stats, on a single year, are not that reliable. Two years ago, Hunter was consider a better RFer than Stanton by the stats. Yet everyone is burying him on last years numbers. 2) We fans are way too trusting of the numbers. Joe Posnanski just quoted Bill James who stated that he flat out hated WAR and thought the numbers were phoney. Every article will have a "the numbers aren't perfect" disclaimer and then use those numbers to say what they want them to say. 3) As bad as his defensive numbers were in one year, they weren't as bad as Cuddyer's in 10, 11 and 13 yet people seem a lot more forgiving of Cuddy's defensive limitations than Hunter's. I think there's an unsaid expectation that the slow looking white guy is trying as hard as he can and Hunter might be loafing on lazy fly balls. 4) I think RF in Comerica is one of the hardest RF to play and Detroit CFers didn't seem to be very helpful in covering extra ground. That might be a way the Twins can protect Hunter. (A reminder, when Hudson came to the Twins in 2010, similar concerns were voiced. Klaw noted that the Twins would probably do a better job of shifting than the Dodgers and Arizona had an he expected a bounce back defensive season. That's what happened). All that said, I'm not sure RF in TF is much easier. 5) Lastly, defensive stats don't have to even out. Most players are in the negative. In the AL, CFers combined for a -20 value last year.

I think everyone is putting more stock in defensive stats than needed. Two years ago, defensive stats had Hunter as a better RF than Stanton. Last years numbers could have a lot of noise in them - esp for playing RF in Comerica. His RH bat might play a lot better in TF, too, if he's still a pull hitter.