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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Nice write up, Seth. I really like this guy and hope he wins a cy young down the road for us. Really looking forward to his debut.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think he's going to be a high avg, solid on-base guy but with only moderate power. Maybe a poor man's Joe Mauer. Something like .300/.360/.430 with 12-15 HR a year and solid defense. He won't be a star but he'd be a pretty good player.
  3. gunnarthor
    I think you're putting too much weight on minor league stat lines. What we should look for are the scouting reports, esp as an A ball player. This is mlbpipelines write up on him - "The first high school position player taken in the 2014 Draft, Gordon is the son of former big league pitcher Tom Gordon and Dee Gordon's younger brother. He more than held his own as one of the youngest regulars in the Midwest League in his first full season of pro ball, showing why the Twins took him No. 5 overall. Not known to have a ridiculously high ceiling, Gordon can do a lot of things well, with a higher floor than most high school draftees. He should hit for average, with a line-drive approach from the left side of the plate, and there should be a little extra-base pop as he adds strength. While he's just an average runner, he's an excellent baserunner who has showed some base-stealing ability. That speed gives him just average range, but he has terrific instincts, good hands and a very strong arm, leaving no question he can stay at shortstop long-term. The Twins never had much doubt Gordon would be a big leaguer one day. How he's begun his career has the organization more enthused about just how good of a player he'll be once he gets there." I'm certainly not trying to suggest he'll be an all-star - he might flame out in AA - but he looks like a guy who can make it.
  4. gunnarthor
    I'm the opposite of tobi. Going into the draft, everyone knew the Twins were going to nab Gordon and I was really happy with that pick. (It's also worth pointing out that the most commonly suggested pick was Alex Jackson who looks lost now). It looks like he can play shortstop at the ML level and be at least a league average bat. That's a really good player.
  5. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I remember these discussions. I was a little wary of Fulmer b/c of the height thing that we always hear on Berrios. I didn't like Benintendi at all - too small and I didn't think he'd stick in center and didn't have enough bat to be a corner guy. As I said, I liked Cameron. So we'll see those two become all-stars while Cameron flops in AA.
  6. gunnarthor
    That's a good point, too. RF isn't that big and Buxton in center should limit it even a bit more. He's a good athlete. Hopefully, this goes well.
  7. gunnarthor
    It's also probably fair to say that baseball hasn't had a lot of 260+ pound outfielders because baseball hasn't had a lot of 260+ pound players. The game and its athletes are changing dramatically. If you watch any ESPN classic baseball game from the 80s you'll see that the players today generally dwarf those guys. The time of the 6'2", 175 lb Jack Clark's playing corner OF and 1B is gone. So, while Sano might be rare now, he might not be all that rare in 5 years. We'll see.
  8. gunnarthor
    I remember at the time of the draft, I wanted the Twins to take Daz Cameron but I kept reading how Jay was going to be the Chris Sale of this draft and being linked to the White Sox and thought, man, why don't we ever nab that guy? So, it was a pleasant surprise. I think Johnson's draft strategies on pitching is interesting and it'll be fun to see if it pans out. I liked this pick though and being #5 seems about right.
  9. gunnarthor
    He should be good. I'm really excited about the bullpen we might end up having soon. Could be a lot like the old Nasty Boy Reds teams.
  10. gunnarthor
    Nice list. I know Walker's a bit of a divisive prospect but I really hope he gets it all figured out. It's nice to see some young players in the 11-20 range that might be able to make some big jumps this year. If Palacios can stick at short stop, the team really has some nice depth there in the minors. Thorpe had been ranked by BP on their top 101 a few years ago. Hopefully he gets back to where he was and continues to develop. Another good lefty would be really fun to have.
  11. gunnarthor
    I think Klaw ranked the system #3 overall but BA had them #10 overall. MLBpipeline is in the process of releasing their rankings. My guess is we'll be top 10 there as well. I'm not sure if BP or others have done team rankings.
  12. gunnarthor
    I asked my friend who is an international scout for the Royals if Park had seen ML quality sliders (not AAA) and he said no. He also said Park will need an adjustment period - not sure how long - but eventually he made a comparison to Magglio Ordonez by "the end of the year one."
  13. gunnarthor
    Man, 200 home runs would be great. I'd certainly take the under but let's go for it!
  14. gunnarthor
    I think the problem is the valuation and weight you put on your math numbers.
  15. gunnarthor
    David Schoenfeld at ESPN is a pretty constant critique of the Twins and often focuses on May being the lucky month. I posted it elsewhere but I don't really think the clustering of wins means much except to a narrative. I think you can certainly say that the Twins won more games than they were supposed to based on the RS v RA but even that should be given a grain of salt. The first week of the season was so bad it actually colored the results for the entire year. -28 RS in the first week, +24 for the rest of the year. Obviously, most teams will look better if you take out their worst week but that was still a really sizeable difference. In any event, I think the Twins team changed considerably over the year so I think the talent level we have is better than what the RS/RA suggests. And that talent should improve. That's generally why I'm optimistic about this season.
  16. gunnarthor
    Nice list, Seth.
  17. gunnarthor
    Hm, not sure what happened there. They projected 70 wins, and were off by 13.
  18. gunnarthor
    I don't think anyone disagrees with this point. I think the area of contention is how much of the Twins success is due to that. It is often mentioned that the Twins were lucky in May last year bu the numbers don't really suggest that - they hit the snot out of the ball in May. Their lucky month was actually August, at least runs-wise. The Twins weren't really unique clustering a lot of wins in a short period, which is what I think is part of this unstated criticisms of last years team. Houston started the season 30-17. The Twins best 47 game streak started about 4 weeks later and they went 27-20. Outside of those 47 game runs, both teams were 56-59 the rest of theway.
  19. gunnarthor
    I guarantee if we had Latos, people would be bitching about blocking Berrios, May and Duffey.
  20. gunnarthor
    We're better than the Sox.
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't think that part is all the controversial. The Twins overachieved some last year (how much depends on how much you want to credit to luck or whatever) and they have a young group of players who may take a step back or might just take off. There's a lot of possibilities. Should be a fun season. Whether you want to put any weight on a system like PECOTA is up to you. I think they've shown they are pretty unreliable to the point that they should be mocked. But others may differ.
  22. gunnarthor
    Right, but does the base run formula use 10 runs = 1 Win or is it closer to 19 as the deviation point?
  23. gunnarthor
    How much is "quite a bit"? Is that a runs created model? Are the off and def equal in value? (The formula link doesn't work). If I'm reading this correctly (and there's a really good chance I'm not), the Twins should have given up 31.6 runs more on defense than they did. Are we using the 10 runs = 1 win thing here? Interestingly, the common refrain is that the Twins were lucky in May by clustering their hits but that's not quite true. In May the Twins were 4th in runs scored buy also 5th in OBP, 3rd in slg and 4th in wOBA. They earned those runs. Their "lucky" month was actually August. 6th in runs but 14th in wOBA.
  24. gunnarthor
    I figure they'll be similar record wise again 79-82 wins but hopefully behind us. I love Lindor - I think he'll be the best short stop in the majors - and the rotation is good. Although I'd be surprised if those 4 give them 120+ starts again.
  25. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that was Gleeman's way of obscuring PECOTA's unreliability. If you look at it year by year it's a bit different - 2010 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 2011 - projected 83 wins - off by 20 2012 - projected 71 wins - off by 5 2013 - projected 66 wins - perfect 2014 - projected 71 wins - off by 1 2015 - projected 82 wins - off by 12 So they were pretty good at saying the Twins would suck in 2013 and 2014 (big gamble there), were in the ball park in 2012 and no where close in 2010, 2011 and 2015. But Gleeman's tweet tries to imply that PECOTA was nearly spot on for the six years.
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