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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    They will, Mike. He's thrown 11 innings in AAA. He'll be up.
  2. gunnarthor
    Yeah, he could be an interesting pick. From mlbpipeline: "Lauer has four effective pitches and mixes them well. His best offerings are a low-90s fastball that reaches 94 mph and features some cutting action and nice downhill plane, and a solid 78-83 mph slider. Lauer also possesses a mid-70s curveball and a changeup with some sink and fade Lauer's athletic, effortless delivery allows him to repeat his mechanics and throw quality strikes. While he doesn't have a true out pitch or a lofty ceiling, he may have a higher floor than any left-hander in the 2016 Draft. Lauer projects as a mid-rotation starter."
  3. gunnarthor
    I'm a big fan of Hudson's so I'd be very happy with him at 15. So, my understanding is that the Twins could go 5% over budget (just over 407k) so, if they signed everyone for slot, they could give #15 a grand total of just under 3.25m (or spread it around a bit more).
  4. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm sure the Twins could move him if they paid a substantial part of his salary. Not sure the Padres got much in that trade - a journeyman starter and a 16 year old lottery ticket? I'm honestly not sure what teams will be looking for help at third. But I do think he will be traded.
  5. gunnarthor
    I don't have any problem with trading Plouffe but I have some doubts about whether Sano can play it. I think the claims that Sano is less likely to get hurt at third (or to be better defensively) are a bit thin (esp since he got hurt running the bases, not in the field). On the other hand, with an OF of Grossman/Buxton/Kepler looking solid, maybe the Twins do want to give it a shot (and I do think Polanco could play it pretty well in the majors, if Sano can't).
  6. gunnarthor
    I wonder how many HS kids are demanding over slot bonuses? At a certain point, not all these guys are top 10 talents, but are more than 10 (for instance) expecting top 10 dollars?
  7. gunnarthor
    How many 150m pitcher deals have worked out?
  8. gunnarthor
    I think it's fine to keep Palka in AA. 1) It's his first taste of the league. 2) It's only been about 40 games. 3) The Twins (and many teams) generally consider AA a step away from the majors anyway and 4) wouldn't he cut into Rosario and Walker's playing time in AAA? I assume Rosario is in a corner and Schafer was signed to play center.
  9. gunnarthor
    I don't necessarily disagree but this is a draft of suspect quality. A guy #15 on one list might be #29 on someone else's list. I think it makes more sense to know what it will cost to get the guy at 15 so you can factor in your pool for the rest of the draft. If #15 is a tough sign or won't sign, you won't be able to play around with other picks after round 10. Last year, for example, the Twins expected to save some money on Kyle Cody but he didn't sign so they weren't able to sign one or two HS guys they picked late. I think the Twins should find a guy who is willing to sign at 15 for something the team is ok with.
  10. gunnarthor
    Nice write up. Seems like we'll probably draft one of those guys or maybe a college arm like Hudson if he's available. Of the group, I'd probably prefer Anderson but, really, any of them would be fine.
  11. gunnarthor
    I thought I read somewhere that the cost of wooden bats is the reason the colleges won't go to them. For all the money they'll put into football, baseball doesn't get much - it's not a good revenue sport. So metal bats save the teams several thousands of dollars each year.
  12. gunnarthor
    Pinto's bat was never quite enough to move beyond catcher - Collins bat is supposed to be better than that. But I don't think Collins makes it to 15.
  13. gunnarthor
    They filed a grievance. I believe the CBA gave the PA the right to enforce draft disputes b/c someone had to. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/report-mlbpa-files-grievance-astros-aiken-nix-marshall/#0P4R8KXvbS7LZTPT.97 The grievance was on behalf of Nix (although the article also names Aiken), who settled for the Astros for over 1m dollars. He was drafted again by the Padres and made a bit more. Good for him.
  14. gunnarthor
    I think that's a pretty good explanation - better control and cleaner mechanics. Usually that's what separates relief pitchers from starting pitchers. Add in a possible third pitch and you have a potential starter.
  15. gunnarthor
    From mlbpipeline - "That said, it's easier to project Zack as a possible starter because he has a cleaner delivery and throws more strikes. He also has the makings of a plus changeup with sink, though it can get a bit firm at times and he hasn't used it much as a reliever. Louisville has kept him in the bullpen, as may the team that drafts Burdi in hopes of expediting him to the big leagues."
  16. gunnarthor
    I don't think so. I think he might go before 15 anyway. BA's most recent mock had him going #12 as a fast to the majors reliever. He's a first round talent but we said that about his brother (who every mock had going at 23 to Detroit) and he fell to the second round. If I'm the Twins, I do something else at 15 but would jump all over him if he fell like his brother at 56.
  17. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'm not sure how much impact the PA has but they did take up the cause of both Aiken and Nix a few years back against the Astros.
  18. gunnarthor
    OK. Let's assume there are 15 elite guys and another 30 who deserve a 2m price tag or better. The Twins pick at 15 and again at 56. A bunch of teams have multiple picks before 56. The Padres have four. But the Reds, Atlanta, White Sox have three picks in the top 55. So, if there are 45 2m talents in this draft, they Twins might/should be able to get a solid pick at 15 and possibly 56 but it's unlikely that a 2m talent is sitting there at 73/74. I do think it makes sense to be prepared to pick a guy dropping at 73 and punt a few picks if needed but I don't like the idea of the Twins going cheap at 15 and 56 b/c, even if they do, I don't think the payoff would be worth it and there's no promise that one of those players would still be on the board. What might makes sense is saving a bit here and there and sign a "tough sign" HS arm like Gonsalves who took 500k or so overslot to sign or Cabbage who took 250k more. I expect there are a lot of HS arms who teams are fairly comfortable with knowing that the player really doesn't want to go to college so a few extra hundred grand could help albeit in not so sexy ways.
  19. gunnarthor
    Yes, they have 5.7m for their first 4 picks and I do think they could spread it around a bit but a lot of teams pick in between. The Twins shouldn't go too cheap at 15. But they could punt 76 and give 1.5 or so to both 56 and 73 or something like that. I guess I'm just not sure how many 2m talents are in this draft (or players holding out for that). My understanding was that this draft was somewhat shallow but large.
  20. gunnarthor
    That's not quite true. They got Cabbage in the 4th round last year. Kendrik and Wade both at slot last year. They did save money on their 5th round pick (IIRC) and used it to sign Cabbage and thought they saved money on Cody but he didn't sign.
  21. gunnarthor
    The Twins could sign a guy at 15 for 2.5 and grab the BPA at 56 and say "we'll give you 2m (the #56 slot plus a bit from 15 and our 7-10 picks) but the player doesn't have to respond. So the team would be left wondering if the guy at 56 will sign (and punting those picks if he doesn't) or play the draft straight. But I think it's probably a better plan to figure out your draft budget and get players that will fit it.
  22. gunnarthor
    The reason the Astros were able to get Cameron is because Bregman signed for nearly 1.5m less than slot and they punted their 7-10 picks for senior signs. The Twins could shave a bit off of #15 but it would still be hard to get a second guy for 3m or more. If the Twins sign get a guy a bit underslot at 15 for something like 2.5m, they'd save about 320k. At 56, they sign the sliding guy (hoping other teams passed on him and if Mannings tag is 3m it's unlikely that other teams would pass). The slot value of 56 is 1.14m so they'd need to come up with 1.86 or so. The value of their 7-10 picks is 710k. Generally, you give senior signs 10k that means they saved 670k for the #56 pick. Less than half way there.
  23. gunnarthor
    Nice but I'll throw out that Klaw has said that stats like fip for minor leaguers (esp A ball) isn't very useful. It's still probably more about the scouting then the stat line.
  24. gunnarthor
    Bummer about Berrios.
  25. gunnarthor
    Always fun, Jeremy. Reports have the Twins on the HS power arms. Do you have any sense of how they feel about Dakota Hudson or Zach Collins, if either was available at 15?
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