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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I think you have to be really careful with defensive stats - we talked a lot about this last year with the Hunter signing. Depending on what defensive stat you want to use, he might be good or bad - fangraphs UZR went from negative to positive last year while b-r went from positive to neutral. And a lot of people have warned about the reliability of one years worth of defensive data, as well. A WSJ article last year put a lot of this into perspective: "Inside-Edge, a baseball analytics company that provides data to major-league teams, brings a big-data approach to scouting. Instead of just using a spray chart to calculate a player’s defensive value, their scouts watch every single play from every single team—twice. And by taking positioning into account in grading the difficulty of plays, Inside-Edge scouts not only found that the range of many players was being overstated, but so too was the overall importance of defense in preventing runs. The major revelation: The quality of a fielder doesn’t matter on most plays. Inside-Edge partner Kenny Kendrena says 24% of plays are almost always hits and 62% are almost always outs. The remaining plays where defenders can really distinguish themselves are so infrequent, he said, that the success in converting them can distort a fielder’s true skill." I think Dozier's defense at second base is good enough - he passes the eye test but isn't a gold glover.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think Rosario's the better player, period. He's a better defender and a much better bet to play a corner OF spot. Plus, he's a Molitor guy and the Twins soured on Hicks. And he's cheaper. Hicks on-base ability was good but it isn't enough absent some improvement elsewhere, which we haven't seen in 3 years. Now he could turn it around in NY - it's a nice park to hit in - but outside of July last year, he has never shown an ability to hit, especially against RHP.
  3. gunnarthor
    I think there might be something to that. I know I read something about Molitor being a little upset/surprised at Hicks for requesting some days off down the stretch but I can't remember where I read that. In any event, I certainly don't think it was a horrible trade.
  4. gunnarthor
    Aaron Hicks had one good month at the plate and hasn't been able to hit otherwise. He was blocking the best prospect in the game and his bat certainly won't play in a corner - where he'd block Sano, Rosario and Kepler. The Twins traded him away for what looks to be a nice solid catcher. Cripes, even Klaw liked the trade. Ryan did a good job.
  5. gunnarthor
    I don't really have a problem with it. It's December. He should have some time off. It'll be a long season for him next year so he should be rested.
  6. gunnarthor
    Every team has question marks - last year we were wondering if Hunter was a good signing, if Hicks could even be a good player and if Mauer could bounce back. We were terrified of a regression season from Hughes and Suzuki. We were sure that if we were going to be good it was because Danny Santana and Vargas showed that their rookie seasons weren't flukes. And we know how that turned out. And we should be ok again this year for the same reason we were ok last year - young players and depth. Last year, Rosario, Escobar, Sano and Duffey picked the team up. We still have some pretty solid depth that isn't projected (at this time) to be starters on opening day (or possibly even on the opening day roster) - Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, Burdi, Meyer etc. The Twins have some really nice talent - probably the most talent since either 06 or 2010 - in their projected lineup. The season won't go exactly as planned - they never do - but this team should be competing for the playoffs and the AL central next year. Should be fun.
  7. gunnarthor
    Kepler will, and should, open the season in AAA. That will be the case no matter what other changes the Twins make this offseason.
  8. gunnarthor
    Honestly, I'd be ok if they all got arbitration.
  9. gunnarthor
    I think the low value also makes it easier for the Twins to send him to AAA if he needs it rather than keeping him on the ML roster b/c of his salary. Hopefully that doesn't happen, of course.
  10. gunnarthor
    Gosh, I'm blushing. All those times I was banned really meant something now .... But, more seriously, fun site and a real big thanks especially to Seth for his excellent coverage of the minor leagues.
  11. gunnarthor
    Couple points. 1) Batting order really doesn't matter and is way overstated by fans. 2) The few studies of batting order that I am aware of suggest the #3 hitter is the most overrated spot - The most important spots in a batting order are the 1, 2 and 4 spots. 3) OPS isn't the best stat and OBP is probably a better guide. That said, I'm honestly not trying to defend Mauer. He was horrible last year and is a real problem going forward. But batting order doesn't really matter much.
  12. gunnarthor
    I think Jorge is the "big" surprise and it's not that much of a surprise. He'll be 22 next year and still hasn't pitched in high A ball. If someone takes him they'd have to stash him in their pen all season. Doesn't seem likely.
  13. gunnarthor
    Yeah, me too.
  14. gunnarthor
    Yeah, he had a pectoral injury, IIRC. Going into the season, he was projected as a first round pick but b/c of the injury he dropped. It's hard to complain too much about that draft b/c it's looking like that might become of the Twins really good draft years (Buxton, Berrios, Chargois, Jones, Walker, Duffey) but I remember I was really hoping they'd take Pierce Johnson, who went one pick later. Johnson was supposed to be a quick to the majors college arm.
  15. gunnarthor
    I'll try and reach for one potential reason for optimism for Mauer for next year. A lot of pretty good hitters (and Mauer was definitely a very good hitter) have had a bounce back season as they got old. Torre at 35 had a nice jump from a 91 OPS+ season to a 124 OPS+ season. Ted Simmons, Frank Thomas, Morneau, etc. So maybe Mauer has another high on-base season in him.
  16. gunnarthor
    Just saw this thread, very nice write-up. As for expectations, I expect Park to come in second in ROY voting to Buxton, hit 28 HRs and make the all-star team.
  17. gunnarthor
    Nice article. I think Hicks' ceiling is better but I don't think he can reach it. It's a solid trade but I understand the frustration.
  18. gunnarthor
    No, I think he was probably deciding between the two.
  19. gunnarthor
    I think this is pretty spot on. I do think that IF Hicks could get it all figured out, his tools would make him a better player but I think that's very unlikely. And I do think Hicks is the more likely of the two to fall apart as well. So it seems like a smart trade.
  20. gunnarthor
    Defensively, the Twins probably upgrade from Hicks to Buxton.
  21. gunnarthor
    Seems like Yankee fans are split as well http://www.pinstripealley.com/2015/11/11/9715710/john-ryan-murphy-trade-yankees-twins-aaron-hicks#comments
  22. gunnarthor
    Doesn't seem to be that bad - he thinks Hicks may profile as a league average hitter going forward, not a superstar. That seems about right. He's less confident about Murphy's bat but still thinks he has enough skills to be a solid platoon, if nothing else. That seems like a decent enough best case/worst case scenario.
  23. gunnarthor
    I liked HIcks but I think people are going a bit overboard here. Defensive stats thought he was about average, although I think he looked better under the eye test. He had a monster July last year but didn't hit much after that (OPS for Aug and Sep were .597 and .701). It's doubtful that bat plays in a corner and the Twins have the best CF prospect in baseball ready to step in this season. Murphy isn't sexy but he's a solid enough catcher with more years of team control. And it's probable that the Twins scouted him a bit in the EL and IL so have several years of reports on him. Sure don't think the comparisons to Herrmann are fair.
  24. gunnarthor
    That was Bill Smith.
  25. gunnarthor
    WTF?
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