Trov

I think Ober was hurt a lot by lack of minor league year. He is a fringe guy because his velo is not there, but velo does not equal success always. He seems to miss bats and that is key. Now, the question for him is did he just out pitch young guys, and when he faces more seasoned hitter his lack of velo will be an issue. Personally, I am not a guy that looks at velo anymore. Years ago when a guy threw 95 plus it was a big deal and sometimes that could get job done. Guys that get by with 90's and movement to me is something to look at. They will know how pitch to a guy use movement and hit all the zone to get outs. I do not care how fast you through if you get the outs.

Early results you can say Twins win, but Dodgers gave up an extra starter they were barely using for a piece they needed. If you look just at numbers Twins win, but do not feel Dodgers really lost either. Time will tell in long run, but think it will be a win win for both clubs.

I can get why PECOTA ranked sox where they are. They did not perform well against good teams last year. They crushed Det and KC and PIT, but beyond that they were at or below .500 against everyone else. Yes some were only 3 games played and went 1-2. However, the point is, when they have less percent of games against DET and KC counting for overall standing they will not look as good. Sure, they may beat up on other lower teams, but DET and KC really swung the standings for Sox. PECOTA could be way off and Sox do well, but I can see where the rankings came from.

I sure hope the Twins do not try to manipulate service time of Kiriloff. One, after next CBA I expect a very different service time clock as that is a huge issue with players right now. It was less of issue when 29 or 30 first time FA were still getting big contracts but now that they are not seeking earlier FA is a huge thing for players. Two, if I was a player I would never sign back with a team that did this, nor would I sign any team friendly deals during arbitration times, similar to what Kepler did. I know nothing about Kiriloff personality or what drives him for making decisions, but for me, any time a team manipulates service time I would never want to deal with that team again. I get the benefit to a team like the Twins, but gaining 1 year of control or one extra half year of cheap control should have consequences. Also, you should want to put out the best team all season long, the games in April count just as much as the ones in September.

As much as I want to root for Astudillo, mainly because he has the look of the average weekend warrior softball player and root for him. He loves to play and no one expects much from him. However, if he takes up a roster spot all year I feel we are not putting out our best lineup. Yes, he can provide a third catcher, but subpar defense. He seems to be a nice guy, and would be a huge fan fav when we are putting up 100 loss seasons, but when looking to make playoffs his value is just too low across the board. I would like to see him playing in St. Paul ready to hit the I94 drive should we need him to be back up catcher for a short period. Other than that I would not like to see him on the 26 man roster.

Notice how all five are HOF players? It shows only a few can put up big numbers late in career, and that makes them HOF. Very few players can produce in late 30's and beyond. Cruz will not put up the overall WAR due to being just a DH. I think he will put up fine enough numbers for the year to justify being the DH. If he is our best offensive player that maybe good because I expect decent offense, but I do not think he will be best offensive guy. I think he will be lower in lineup, but maybe not. He may keep raking, and I hope he does. The question is what will be considered good season for him? I sure hope he plays the full year and drives in another 100 with 30 plus HR. I also feel he brings good things to clubhouse too that you do not see on the field each day, but pays off in long run.

Do you really think Bauer opts out after first season? You think he will leave 45 mil, expecting more? I mean maybe he could get more but that may be a hell of a gamble. I think he only opts out after year 2 of the deal, when he would be set to make only 17 mil.

Bauer has very interesting contract. He gets huge money for two years, but can opt out after any season as well. So with 102 over three years and 40 plus 45 for first two he will be down to only 17 for last year. Unless he is injured no way will he be there for year three at 17 mil. So really he signed a two year 85 mil deal, because I doubt any team next year will give him 45. He gets paid huge for two years and protects himself incase of injury for a third year, or get paid 17 mil in a potential bounce back if his injury is prior to that. Good for him. He will also be getting paid more than the entire Pirates team.

I would like to point out, that 28 games was half the season. I am not saying Donaldson would have played a full half, he may have played more, may have played less. But to just say he played 28 games, in a 60 game super short season, is a little misleading. I could use same data and say he only missed 32 games last year. Which is also true, but leaves out the fact it was half the season.

It is hard to say because his last 18 games were not like his first 36 does not mean he dropped off. He was best bat in playoffs. Every hitter has bad stretches. He was not going to crush like he did. If the season was full season there is no reason to think he was not going to bounce back after the 18 bad games. The rest of the team stopped hitting too, which makes me think he was getting less to swing at, and he was pressing to make things happen more because the guys behind him were not getting it done on offense either.

Personally, I do not feel any are on their list of wish they had back. Maybe Hicks, because of giving him up for nothing basically and he has some value. However, some you got decent players in return of trades, and others failed with Twins, no reason to know they would do well with them had they stayed.

Adding personal chef to staff will go down as one of those odd contract requirements. We see things all the time, but that being the deciding factor will be odd one. I get it, for someone at his age to have the right food to stay in playing shape is needed. Not every person is the same, and the sports have learned that over the years.

Mutual option deals are always interesting. I mean the only way both agree are if both sides believe the value is what they would get on open market, and both like the situation. My guess it will not be picked up, because either Twins will not want to pay it, or Colome feels he can get more.

I am guessing there will be more signings but nothing major. With spring training just around the corner both sides are feeling the pressure to get ready. There will be one or two more vet arms signed with invite to camp but no MLB spot yet.

The definition makes sense, but my follow then, how is it compared to late and close then? I mean, there must be overlap right? So he performed better on late and close, but worse on high leverage? So the conclusion to me that is drawn is when he was facing high leverage earlier in games say, 6th or 7th inning he would fail, which was very common based on eye test. But, when he got chances late in games he did better. Personally, I do not think WPA should be used for hitters as a measuring stick. I think it is good for relief pitchers, but when an average hitter fails 75% of the time give or take a few percent, if they get a hit in those high leverage spots 1 out of 4 they should be average, in my mind. I find it difficult to measure how much a hitter adds compared to others. Also, I find WPA for early parts of games very misleading because it uses a metric of games played out under normal circumstances. However, you new know how a game will play out should the outcome of the previous situation change. For example, 1st inning 2 out bases load. Guy hits a grand slam that most likely increases WPA a decent amount. Where if they get a single and score 1 run it only less, both did a good job of getting a hit, but one gets better reward. What if the guy that got the single fouled off 5 3-2 pitches that were nasty, where the grand slam guy got a meatball down the middle, and the single never had a good pitch to really hit? Which one performed better really? Also, it is just the first inning, we have no clue how the game will be played differently the rest of the way based on the outcome. Teams will hit differently, be managed differently, so on and so forth. Later games when outs are limited I think it is easier to measure, but to reward 1 guy for hitting a meatball well more than a guy who had a great at bat but limited what he could do because the pitcher did better job is kind of counter productive to me. Just like any other stat WPA only is a small story to everything. That all being said, I agree with the point that Eddie was overrated by Twins fans generally.

At the 6 o'clock news I hear they upped their offer, but also offered Ozuna. At 10 o'clock news he is signed. I have a feeling once the offer to Ozuna got known Cruz knew it was a race to who signed first. With expanded DH looking like a no go this year now, Cruz had limited options, thinking only Twins. Did not take long to sign then. I am happy he is back. The rumored contracts for Ozuna were too high for my liking based on what he have in minors. If Cruz falls off cliff based on age, we move on to Rooker most likely. If Ozuna struggled we would needed to keep putting him out there because he would be making too much to cut loose.

The problem I have with the numbers you use to rank these teams are they are based on comparison to the rest of the league that year. You say it is best defensive teams all time, but you use numbers that compare them to other players in that year. If you truly wanted to compare all time you would need to use numbers that do not use other players as their measure. Under the numbers you used, a player that is average defender at SS over his career will some years have high numbers because his competition was weaker. However, if they were plugged into year with say Ozzie Smith or other all time great SS they would look worse under these numbers. There may not be a good number to use to make this determination, but it should be pointed out that the numbers sited compares them only to players of that year. Heck, they could have had worse year defensively, but if everyone else was even worse they look better. It is a good number to compare the team to others in the league, but the title suggests this is ranking how good the team was overall, not compared to other teams.

Too often offense of the player got gold gloves, which made no sense. Unless the player was on highlights over and over, they needed to be a higher level offensive player for coaches to think about them when they were voting. Then, once a guy was known for defense, regardless of how well they did there they would win it. 99 Palmero won the gold glove when he DH 128 games and started 28 at first. Shows how much managers pay attention and only think of names they know of. That is where the offense comes in. You think of good offensive players a lot, but unless they put up a ton of highlights, you never think of defense guys.

I agree that they most likely have an understand that DH in NL would affect his value, and they both understand the realities of the situation. I doubt there is a handshake deal based on how that happens though. My guess there is offer there, and both sides are fine with waiting to see how NL shakes out to look at how that affects other teams bidding on him. I am sure there is a number Cruz agrees to regardless of other teams.

What is definition of "high leverage"? I agree with you that he is not clutch. I was mostly pointing out that he appeared to like the pressure on him, which I would argue the late and close is the pressure I was meaning. Hitting middle of order much of last few seasons he had many chances with 2 outs and RISP, but that in first inning is not a pressure situation I would argue. I mean you have 8 more innings to score. I full agree he his optics were he was better than his numbers suggest. However, I still feel the numbers you site back up my pressure point. He would fail many times early in games in similar situations, but as your numbers point out, he was a little better in late game close situations. I have never been an advocate to keep him around.

I think it will come down to what MLB does with DH in NL. If NL has DH I think he walks for more money. If not, my guess he will have to decide retire or go with what Twins offer. I would like to see him back, but only if you can eat his contract should he fall off the cliff and be a liability.

I am on Dobnak with the addition of Simmons. I am not high on Rodgers. I know his numbers appear that it was in part luck base, but at some point those hits he gave up you need to put on him as well. At some point he needs to get the outs. I mean all his BABIP was not just weak grounders that found holes. For Josh, if he can stay on the field I am high on him, but that is a big if.

His answer about shifting is great. I hope he does push back on some of the shifts and challenge the assumptions. I am a fan of shifting generally, but feel the Twins at times shifted when it was not the best decision and got burned on it. Look at Astros in playoffs. You know the Astros knew the Twins would shift a ton, and work on hitting against.

Personally, all the SS available he was the one I wanted most. I do not expect much with the bat, but what he does with the glove will make a difference. Many may not see it in the box score, but it will help. Pitchers that get ground balls will feel even more confident to let the ground balls be hit. Polonco should be better at 2b than SS because much of his issues was arm not actual fielding.

I am guessing Eddie will be extra dialed in against the Twins. He has always been one that would seem to like the pressure on him. It will be fun to see him plenty against us. Hope he does not haunt us.