DocBauer

It's actually quite possible that the knee surgery he had before 2023 really helped fix that knee. It's actually quite possible that the doctors errored too much on caution and just should have removed the plica from the start, since we're told he didn't really need it. So it's entirely possible that the removal of the plica now really does remove so much of the pain and tendonitis he's suffered through. That could absolutely mean 80 games in CF, and another 20-30 as a DH or PH. That would be huge! Unfortunately, it's also possible his knee is just a wreck and is never going to be right, no matter how optimistic Buxton and the Twins are, or we want to be. I think we're going to know a lot about his future in 2024. If he really can play those 80 games in CF and however many others as a DH and...more or less...get through the season, it could actually mean he's got a good number of years to be available and productive for the Twins. But the only HOF Buxton will ever be in is the Twins. Just too much missed time in his career at this point, and not enough time to build the kind of resume he would need.

I am certainly not going to defend ownership on lowering the payroll for this upcoming season. I am, however, going to say that as much as I listen to and read about the whole TV situation for 2024, the more confusing and frustrating it all is. Bally is out, and the Twins don't know what direction they are going to go. Does MLB step in to rescue them as they have already done for a handful of teams? No, Amazon steps in and Bally suddenly gets new life in the BK hearings to proceed forward with options to go 1 more year. You KNOW MLB is kicking rocks over not seeing that coming and possibly messing up their grand plan of uniting most of the league in 2025 under an umbrella with SOMEONE'S platform. It's all a weird, confusing and confounding mess. And maybe the Twins really were concerned they might be looking at only a $20M deal for 2024. That's debilitating. Maybe they had no clue things would come out where they are going to get $40-45M this season. Maybe they should have just anticipated it would all work out in the end and they'd have more $ coming in a TV deal than expected. Maybe they should have just ante'd up out of their own pockets to have done more and wiped their brows in relief when this new deal came across the desk. But with so many unknowns and twists and turns, I can't completely fault ownership for their conservative efforts this offseason, much as I'm disappointed and don't like it. But as a fan, IMO, ownership SHOULD have taken on the financial risk/burden of expectation/hope that a decent sized deal would be coming from somewhere and shot higher. At least in regard to the rotation. There's some guys out there that I'm not crazy about, but weren't signed for huge, long term deals that I think would have been better than DeSclafani. I don't think the Twins were caught with their pants down. The whole TV situation is a mess, and might be one for a few more years until everything continues down the path of change. But I do think they are guilty of being TOO risk adverse.

Sorry if I didn't make myself clear. Miami would receive approximately 4 total players, possibly 3, and possibly the QO draft pick. They would have the choice between prospects in the 10-20 range, OR, a couple prospects and add ML ready talent such as Larnach, Camargo, and Severino, who is pretty close. So prospects, or a mixed bag of ML ready and prospects. But not 6 or 7 total players.

I like most of the roster as is. I like the depth of the pen and the possibilities very much. I'm mostly sold on the player/lineup situation as long as Santana is a part time player. I also like the front end of the rotation and some of the depth potential. But I believe there are 2 moves the Twins could still make that might take them over the top. 1] Add 1 more RH OF. Various FA are sitting there wondering where they are going to play next season. There are multiple options that should be inexpensive at this point on a 1yr. I'm only going to address 2, but there are other options. Taylor knows the team and brings defense, speed, and some pop. He would be in the role he was supposed to be in 2023, and provides more Buxton CF insurance. Probably won't hit as many HR, but with a better back condition, might steal more bases. Duvall has almost neutral splits. Who cares? He's still, probably, a better RH bat against LHP than Kepler or Wallner. 2] Call Miami about Cabrera. Forget about spending TOP prospect capital for Luzardo. The FO doesn't want to do that, and I can't really disagree with that. Miami, like Seattle, has arm depth. They also have a new GM from Tampa who understands grabbing value to build a team. And the Twins have enough good quality depth in the organization to make this happen. Miami has the choice of adding some combination of immediate or close to ML talent in the "hasn't quite yet proven it but has the ability" in Larnach. There's also the "probably ready" catching of the powerful and reportedly solid defense Camargo. (They're looking for catching and doubt they want Vazquez's contract). But they are also, probably, looking at future value. Larnach and Camargo are financially cheap, if interested. But outside the Twins top 5 or 6, they could trade the recently acquired Gonzalez, Severino...close to MLB...Rosario. J Rodriquez, Jones, Matthews, Culpepper, DeAndre, Schobel, Keaschall. etc, a nice collection of top 15 talent and even a solid ML ready player or two, depending on their needs and wants. And the Twins can also throw in the QO offer draft pick they got for Gray. Basically, the Marlins, and their new GM, get their choice of a couple ML players to help now who are young and have potential, and/or a collection of 2-4 solid top 10-20 prospects, and maybe the QO draft pick thrown in. Maybe they'd even be interested in DeScalfini as a 5th SP option?? And the Twins get a cost controlled 27yo with no options, if I'm correct, who has great stuff and a really good 2022 half season and a mediocre 2023. The potential is sky high. The floor isn't better than a back end starter. But that's a risk I'd take all day long were I the FO. I NEVER saw a BIG DEAL for a SP unless they could pull another rabbit out of the hat as they did with Odorizzi or Gray or Lopez. And they couldn't do it a 4th time. But I've said and thought for months they COULD...and still can...grab someone like Cabrera to fit in to current payroll with upside that would COST talent, without mortgaging the future of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the system. Cabrera is a risk, no doubt. But he's been a risk that makes sense to me. What say you?

Honestly, I think the FO has been very deliberate in NOT including any of their top 3-5 prospects in a deal. I think anyone else, and the Gray QO pick next year are on the table. The Twins FO is VALUE BASED on the moves they make, always with an eye on the future. They might move E Rodriguez or the newly acquired Gonzalez in a deal. They might include Jones, Matthews, Culpepper, or any young arm not named Festa or Raya...though they MIGHT move one of them if the deal makes sense. There's also Severino, Rosario, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, DeAndre and others who are quality prospects. I still think a team like Miami might be really intrigued by Larnach as a powerful LH bat who hasn't quite put it all together just yet. What I DON'T understand is reports Miami had Arraez available a year after they acquired him and he won the batting title. Was this the new GM trying to flip him for more? Are they soured on his lack of power and position placement? Really odd to me. With all the vast speculation of trade possibilities for a SP add, I always felt Seattle and Miami made the most sense. But I just never saw the Twins trading away what it would take to get Luzardo. The guy I always saw was Edward Cabrera. He's out of options, if I remember correctly, had a really nice 14 games in 2022, but was mediocre in 2023. Not having any options is a concern for the Twins. But the kid has some good stuff. And their new GM comes from Tampa where he probably learned to identify moving players for prospects. And I keep wondering as ST approaches if maybe a cheap and potential filled Larnach, the newly acquired Gonzalez, Severino...close to ML...Schobel or Keaschall, Rosario, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, DeAndre, Jones, Matthews, Culpepper, Camargo, etc, might not induce them in to a 3 for 1 kind of deal, possibly with the Gray QO draft pick included, to bring Cabrera to the Twins. If the Miami pitching depth is as good as reported...similar to Seattle...and they need offense, and have a new "Tampa thinking" GM, the Twins can offer Larnach and Camargo for immediate help, AND/OR a combination of either with a group of young top 20 prospect talent, and a top draft choice for the new GM to work with. The Twins get a 27yo arm with control but no options, a great half season in 2022, a mediocre 2023, but some great stuff and a ton of potential to work with. The Marlins have a top draft pick and their choice of a couple 40 man players and anyone in the system other than the top 5 or 6. And the Twins get a young arm with the potential to be a #2-3 if they can get him on the right track. This makes so much sense for both teams it's killing me. I've been preaching about a deal for Cabrera for months now that fits what the Twins need and want and can afford. There's some risk, but it's the smart move. IMO. TOMORROW should be a signing of Taylor or Duvall, maybe Pham, for a RH OF on the cheap as they and a couple other options are just sitting there, disappointed in the market, and looking for a deal. Do the Twins want defense and speed and CF help...Taylor...or more power in Duvall, etc? Just make a move and add! Then make a move with Miami for Cabrera. Hell, they might even want DeScalfini back to fill out their rotation.

I don't blame the Jay's for keeping him and betting on a turnaround. If he were with the Twins, we'd be hoping for the same. Not an expert on the Jay's OF situation right now, but rumors were they might have been interested in Polanco for 2B as part of a deal. And that ship has sailed, if rumors were true. And I just don't see the Twins moving Kepler at this point as OF depth is rather thin. And since the Jay's are looking to compete this coming season, there is no fit...UNLESS it's a smokescreen and they want to move him for some younger players for their future. But I doubt that.

IMO, I think it's more if they're both in the lineup, they might DH Kirilloff and let Santana play 1B instead, here and there. Personally, I don't think AK is a poor 1B, just not a great one. I'd rather see him at 1B and let Santana platoon, PH, DH here and there. Not saying AK can't still play a little OF here and there, but you already have Wallner and Kepler as corner OF who bat LH. Santana should be looking at 300-350 AB as that platoon 1B/PH/sometimes DH. And he'd better produce. Otherwise, time to bite the bullet and make room for someone younger, cheaper, and with potential.

Could have quoted a bunch of posts individually and commented, but have decided it's best to hit a bunch at once: 1] I was also on the train that would have taken Kepler out of town last year after 2 1/2 years of disappointment and frustration. Glad I was wrong, because he FINALLY made adjustments that raised his game. I don't know how many teams would have had that patience with hum, but the Twins were right and I was absolutely wrong! Now, even with some regression, if he just KEEPS THE SAME APPROACH he found last year, it's great to have him around still. 2]I, and everyone else, were right about Gallo. At times, the FO is so obsessed with sunk cost, or determination for hope, OR depth, that they hold on too long. There comes a time when it is just SO OBVIOUS that it's time to move on, a casual fan could look at the numbers and figure it out. Larnach, Williams, almost anyone from AAA could have stood in the batters box and just hoped for a BB. At least you would be trying for some upside and production from someone else. I sure hope the FO learned a lessen there. 3] I'm not crazy about the Santana signing, but I don't hate it. I DON'T think he helps Popkins learn something he doesn't already know. I DO THINK he can lead some by example to other young hitters who his his professionalism in how he approaches AB's and how he grinds. (Similar to Julien AND Wallner to a degree). I WANTED Miranda and the non 40 man Helman...who's been begging for an opportunity and would have got one in 2023 if not injury plagued but still RAKED at AAA...to battle it out for a Kirilloff partner. Miranda could still play some 3B here and there, PH, DH, etc. Helman can play 7 spots if you need him to, has speed, and some decent power. But Miranda might not be ready, needs to prove himself, and has options. The Twins like Helman, but as an older prospect not on the 40 man, you aren't going to hand him anything. Santana is FINE at 1yr and $5M IF he's used properly. Unless he can duplicate his 2023, or be better, both improbable, he's a good match to share 1B with AK against LHP, be a veteran PH, and be reasonably OK as a DH/1B here and there depending on the match up. IF the FO has actual belief and intent that he's anything other than that, THEN I have a serious issue and there is a problem. I don't think Severino is ready, and that's fine for now. Helman has to wait for his opportunity and then do something with it. Miranda needs to be healthy and get back to his 2021-22 self. All the better when those things happen. I see Santana as a bridge player who is arguably the 13th man at this point on a roster in which everyone has roles and plays. But if the wheels come off, I'd like to think that at 38yo, and only $5M, the FO has learned their lesson and will turn elsewhere for the younger player with upside from St Paul that is deserving a shot.

Don't disagree with your basic premise on the standings here at all. And I also like Cleveland better than the Tigers at this point. And I admit, unabashedly, that I tend to be an optimist. But except for 1 spot...that missing equivalent or close to replacement for Gray...I really like the way the Twins are currently set up. I like them even better if they...as I still believe they will...grab one more RH OF bat. It's crunch time for a number of guys still sitting there and needing a home. Taylor brings defense and speed with some pop in the role he was SUPPOSED to play last year. Someone like Pham or Duvall brings more power, less defense. Nobody left of this nature moves the needle much, but they help on the margins against LHSP. Might only mean a couple extra wins, but those wins could be important. I like the depth they've built in the pen, and there's a couple guys there that could pay big dividends. I like our offense better than the one that began 2023, and I like it better than Cleveland. A healthy Correa and even a half season of healthy Buxton is an upgrade as well. And could the offense possibly be as maddening inconsistent as it was the first half of 2023? I'm not certain about Cleveland's rotation depth, but I give them the edge in the first 3 spots. Not so sure that Paddack, Varland, ANYTHING of quality from Disco might not exceed the Guardians. If the pen is actually better, and I think it is, and there are some arms that might help later in the season, that helps mitigate the loss of Gray on the balance sheet. If the offense is in the top third...I think they might be better than that...the runs will come. If Ryan is the Ryan, or close to, that he was through part of July before his injury, Ober repeats and doesn't even improve, Paddack can give us 120 solid IP, and we make the 5th spot work, I see 88 wins, maybe hitting 90. 92 isn't impossible. "But Doc, that's IF's for the pen, lineup, and rotation"! Yep. But EVERYONE is just about ready to begin ST. Doesn't EVERYONE have IF's everywhere at this point? 😀

Ad to the OP more directly, the Twins...try as they might...were apparently unable to parlay one of Polanco or Kepler, a couple quality prospects, and maybe the comp pick acquired from Gray moving on, in to a quality ML starter around or under 30yo with control. I don't see Kepler moving at this time. And I don't see anyone like Julien, Wallner, Lewis, and any other core member of the current team being moved. That gives 3 options: 1] Bite the bullet with around 3 quality prospects and the QO pick over the next few weeks. 2] See if a team has multiple injuries and sees their season going up in flames before it starts and decides to add young talent. 3] Pretty much the same outgoing cost in a deal at the deadline. I think we have what we have at this point. Though I wouldn't be shocked if we see a veteran reclamation project yet added on a milb deal with a June or July opt out clause.

I'm totally fine with second chances for anyone. As long as they deserve it. Now, I don't know Bauer at all. It's possible he's just completely misunderstood. But while charges were ultimately dropped in three different cases, the fact that HE was targeted in three different cases means he's either terribly unfortunate, or has done something to paint a target on himself. The fact that we've heard negative comments over the years about his personality and character doesn't mean he doesn't deserve a second chance. But if he was a changed man. If he had matured and grown and was contrite and was really changing himself and his life and had "learned his lesson" I haven't heard about it. And if he had, wouldn't someone have taken the opportunity to dive in to his current life, sit down with him, and if convinced he's a changed man...and can still pitch...wouldn't we have heard something about it by now? I'm not picking on the idea. The idea has real merit. And I'm in favor of second chances, as I said. But I'm just not seeing or hearing anything from anywhere that would indicate he has done anything to indicate he is a changed person.

You know, I really wish I had a good answer for you. He's got a good frame at 6' 3" and solid size. When he was drafted, reports said he was in that 92-93 mph range and could touch 94-95. I also read where he had tendency to "short arm" some throws. If I had to guess, he was just pretty maxed out physically when drafted and just doesn't have the type of delivery extension that allows the ball to jump. Of course, velocity isn't the only thing. You usually need that ball to spin and move some in order to be effective. I think it's just a double issue where he was just maxed out on velocity and didn't have good movement to be deceptive enough either. Which is kind of weird since his breaking stuff often has good movement. I'm just speculating here. He might gain some velocity in his pen role vs starting, but that doesn't help much if things are straight. I'm just wondering if he leans that much harder in to his other offerings and just mixes in either/both of his fastballs on a lower scale to "keep the hitter honest" if he might still have a shot.

I think I would have had him a couple spots lower than 3.5 simply because Raya and Festa are awfully good prospects. But I believe he was #3 with Seattle. He's on a pair of top 100 lists and is generally accepted as being a top 150 otherwise. That should equate to a top 10 ranking for the Twins, even though he's new to the organization. It's where he should be in that top 10 that I think is debatable.

I was a big fan of his signing last offseason. I saw a 25yo switch hitter with a little bit of power and speed who was probably promoted a little too early, maybe never developed properly, and had a chance to be a nice utility player who could help in a lot of different ways. But I never saw him making the club right out of ST, much less performing the way he did. I thought he looked great at 3B. The few times I saw him at SS he looked solid, and made a couple great plays late in the year at the spot when Correa was being rested. Solid in both LF and CF, if not downright good. We got a steal. The question is, can he repeat? He seems like an obvious regression candidate. And maybe so. But he might regress some from the LH side of the plate but improve from the RH side, right? His .750 OPS is just fine, and I'd love to see him repeat it. But let's not carried away thinking he had an .800 or higher OPS. We're not asking him to repeat an All Star, Silver Slugger type of year. We just need/want him to be pretty much what he was in 2023. That might mean a lower AVG from one side, but better from the other, or fewer SB but a little more power. I think he's valuable. I really enjoyed what he brought to the team last year. I don't think he's going anywhere. I think a similar performance is very possible as it wasn't as though he stunk for half a season and was awesome for the other half. But I do wonder if his playing time might be more diversified across the field this year? I think he's going to play again a lot this year, but out of trust and proof, and not out of desperation due to injury.

He's a fascinating player to consider when you look at the floor vs ceiling outcome potential. Interesting that he and Gonzalez have a similar but very different swing issue. One needs to hold back on swinging too much, and one might need to swing more, or at least earlier in the count. Other than some highlight videos, I confess to not watching him live. So there's a lot of opinions here I like to read for their perspective. Emma feels like he's teetering on being Julien or being Gallo. By that I mean the Julien approach where you look for something to drive early, but work the count for a BB if that's what the pitcher gives you, and some K's are OK because of the hit/power/OB ability. In Gallo's case, he was virtually nothing but HR, BB, or K. In fact, late in the year, it seemed like Gallo was only going up to the plate hoping to take a walk. I almost wonder if being at AA this next year, where the pitchers should have even better command, if that might not help him. Better control, more pitches around and in the zone might "force" him to identify pitches to swing at earlier in the count. That's what I'm hoping for as his upside is tremendous.

Sounds like he has a really good arm. If that's accurate, it helps make up some for a general lack of speed. I would MUCH RATHER have a young kid who swings at everything but MAKES CONTACT rather than a kid who swings and misses a ton. Pure bat to ball skills are something that you seem to have or not have. But recognition and the ability to hold back on swinging at everything is a discipline issue, as much as a recognition issue, that I would hope comes with additional experience and maturity. Personally, considering his contact ability and low K numbers, I'd almost like to see him hold up on some borderline pitches and "risk" taking them for strikes instead of popping out or hitting a slow roller to the 2B. That's not the contact we want, or that he needs. The power numbers would go up, along with the EV. Reigning in a young bat is not an awful "problem" to have.

When I've watched him throw, some of his offspeed stuff has looked really nasty at times. But that fastball usage has to drop quite a bit from what's being said here, or sequenced in differently at the least. I think there's some hope for him still as a middle man. The problem is he never had or developed the great FB or the really good velocity to play off his other pitchers. But as a couple innings guy with starter experience who can toss up 5 different pitches? He's still got a shot. But now having fully made the transition to the pen, this might be a make or break season.

I like a team with "good guys" on it. I think it helps the team to work and pull together toward a common goal. I like having some good veteran leaders around for younger players, in the case of the Twins, guys like Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Lee, Kirilloff, etc. That doesn't mean those young men have issues, or need to be lead around on a leash by a veteran, it just means they have a guy they can ask questions of, see how a ML veteran works and adapts, etc. But you still need talent to win. If a guy has a really bad attitude, is a real prima dona and pore example, he might not make it despite talent. And he might not last long either. Player X is a 9 in talent but a 6 in personality and work ethic and leadership. Player Y is a 8 talent but also an 8 in personality, work ethic, and leadership. I take player Y every time. Nothing says you can't have the best of both worlds in your players, and on your roster.

He was my favorite selection when the Twins drafted him in 2020. Not sure why, but it was reported the velocity was there, the work ethic was there, and he had a bulldog presence on the mound. I was very disappointed when we didn't see him in 2021. What's crazy is the limit on IP and turns through the order, but pushing him all the way to AA as a 20yo. It seems to me the attitude is to protect the arm and build it's endurance up slowly, but simply saying...without saying it out loud...that his stuff is just too good to stay in A ball and it would be a waste of time. He's not the biggest guy in the world, didn't throw after being drafted, and didn't throw in 2021. Right or wrong, they've been letting him mature physically and protecting his arm to this point. I'd be just fine if he spent all, or most all, of 2024 in AA just refining his stuff and building up his innings. After 62 IP last year, I'd say a minimum of 100 should be the target for this season. And I'd love to see 120. That's still only throwing about 5 per start. But it would put him on a build up to a big 2025 and a ML debut.

Good post. And a more accurate memory than mine. Or maybe more fortitude to take time to look things up? Lol Just be to clear, I'd mostly always look to the younger arm with potential than the older vet with question marks. However, you don't get a Thielbar or Stewart if you don't look at a 30yo arm with potential. Not saying I'm CRAZY about a 36yo arm as a middle man, but I won't curse him for being good in his role if he is good, despite his age. The Twins 2023 bullpen was OK for most of the season, up and down, mediocre. It finished strong. But while I've never thought Coulombe was great, he was solid. And there were a few points early in the season where I would have accepted solid. Hoffman had a great ST and then went out and had probably had the best year of his career. I would have much rather had him in the pen rather than Sands sitting on the bench for 10 days at a time. Wouldn't you? I'm excited for Funderburk. I'm excited for Canterino for the pen as I still have doubts that his future is in the rotation. But one of he or Varland is going to be in the pen going forward. Duran is a young stud. Jax ain't exactly old. But at the same time, where would the pen be, last year and maybe this year, without Thielbar and Stewart? Just saying, pens are constructed many different ways. Sometimes they are 25yo studs. Sometimes they're 26-27yo arms that couldn't hack it as a SP, or had injury issues. And sometimes they're a 32yo arm that incredulously figured something out. Never stop turning rocks over. Never apologize when you turn that rock over and find a lost coin.

The churn happening with these pen arms is natural, and not inclusive of the Twins. Every team is doing this at this point in the season. It's much like playing various card games when you can burn a 3 card for a 7 card that might win a hand with surprise. The simple fact that some of these guys have already passed through 2 or 3 teams already indicates how the game is played. You drop/discard someone for an arm you like better. And at some point, you have the better card that wins a turn, nobody snags him, you put him at AAA, and he either helps your milb team, or he figures something out and you get lucky. Haven't we been through this enough over the years that we can stop explaining it all? Balazovic MIGHT be a Liam Hendricks in 3yrs. But can you blame the Twins for DFA-ing at this point? Maybe the biggest arm disappointment in 10yrs. Personally, I still think we're going to sign Duvall, Pham, Taylor, or a surprise yet. And then Weiss is the next guy to be DFA. [I'd be OK with Soler on a 2yr, but I just don't see it happening]. I LOVE the idea of adding pen arms whenever and wherever you can, looking for lightning. It's how you get guys like Tielbar and Stewart. But doing so, you have to be smart about it. The FO BLEW IT in 2023 because they could have kept Coulombe and Hoffman for next to nothing. But when I look at the 40 man roster as of right now, except for Weiss who I'm not convinced is going to stay, much less an improvement, I'm not seeing much chaffe right now. Was it 2020 when the Twins collected a group of VERY marginal pen arms to fill the 40 man for HOPE of help? Or was it 2021? Sorry that I've forgotten. But when I see a 40 man that includes Jackson and Weiss as the LAST 2 guys who could be jettisoned at any moment, I'm feeling pretty good about the current state of the 40 man talent wise...with the OBVIOUS caveat of having a better rotation piece other than the hope and prayer of Disco. Teams are so close to their 40 man limit right now, that Balazovic, Jensen, Bubba, Duarte, might slip through waivers and wait for opportunity and help St Paul, if not the Twins. But there's easy room to still add one more piece. Weiss will only be on the roster for a few days.

I am super excited about this kid! And I have been since he debuted in 2022. And I say debuted as 2 games and 5 IP in 2021 after being drafted really isn't a debut, IMO. As I recall, he was great for Ft Myers for in 5 starts, great for CR, then slumped a little, and then pitched a couple great games to end the season on a high note. I understand he's close to turning 24yo, but he's only thrown 2yrs of pro ball and is already at AAA. From every report, he's already got 3 quality pitches. I think, generally, there are 2 issues almost every young pitcher faces: 1] Control 2]A 3rd pitch that is quality. Well, his control isn't bad, but does need refinement. He's still young and relatively inexperienced. Being long helps with velocity to some degree, and aids in deception. Being so long means a little more time and effort to have a consistently repeatable delivery. That's what he's going to be working on in 2024. IMO, the only real concern is just him having more endurance to keep his velocity up, and to not tire too soon and lose that control. I don't want him to "fatten up". He's not an OL in football who needs bulk. But a few extra pounds of bulk and muscle could go a long way to his ability to throw a consistent 5-6 innings, or more. Like any young arm, I expect bumps in the road. When you face a ML lineup, you are facing the best players in the world daily/nightly. So there is ALWAYS a bit of a learning curve. He's going to get a shot in 2024. I'm hoping it's a fairly small shot as that means the Twins rotation is generally healthy and good. The IDEAL 2024 for Festa is to continue to develop and maintain his control via repition. Second...and some of this would be his offseason work as well...bulk and muscle up a little to maintain endurance. Get about 6 ML starts at some point...again because he's hopefully not needed for more and he is behind Varland, AND SWR if we believe he's about ready to take a step forward. POSSIBLY enter the late season/playoff bullpen consideration, and use all of that to be ready in 2025. A little better control, some additional experience, a little more endurance, I think he's a top 100 player entering 2025. And YES to a few other comments about the FO and scouting department looking for arms. This is exactly what they do. They look for arms that check 3 or 3 1/2 boxes of a proverbial 5 box checklist when they draft. Someone who has a couple SOMETHINGS working in their favor and they can build up the rest, usually from a smaller school that didn't have all the coaches and tools to work with. Who might have come from a less than ideal climate, etc. Now, they aren't ALWAYS the 6' 3" and above guys. Witness Tanner Hall in the 4th round in the last draft. Now the 4th round isn't the 8th or 13th round for sure, but Hall DOMINATED at a top school. But there are questions about velocity and pure STUFF vs control and spinning. They believe they can add some velocity, maybe add or tweak a pitch, and get as good, or better, prospect than a college arm that may be close to peak ability already at a larger school/conference. To be fair, if you take a moment to really look at our FO drafts over the past several years, you will see a collection of HS and college arms selected in the first 100 picks. They are not immune to doing so, despite the opinions of some. The facts are there if you just look. But they believe better bats are available early rather than late, and there are just so many good arms that might be very good with development time. Witness Festa in this OP, Raya who is probably next on the list, and Ober and Varland already with the Twins.

Now that his wrist is taken care of, I have a lot of confidence Kirilloff is going to begin to shine. His numbers in 319 PA were just fine. Now, let's get him over this shoulder injury and have him available for a full season. IMO, the Twins are going to re-unite with Taylor, or bring on one of Duvall or Pham in the next few days. Different players, but all fit on their own way. That leaves Gordon without a job unless someone is hurt. Betting he's got enough interest out there to snag an A ball prospect of some sort. Miranda and Larnach open at St Paul and wait for opportunity. Miranda is just not as bad as he looked last season. Larnach has flashed at times, and IIRC he finished 2023 pretty strong for the Saints. Does he finally start to put it together for the Twins...or someone else...in 2024? Nice duo to have in reserve.

I wouldn't have Martin this high simply because I don't think his ceiling is as high as when drafted, and he's been too inconsistent. Low BA and SLG but a high OB and SB ability. He doesn't have to be a 20 HR hitter, but he can't just be a slap hitter and succeed. ML pitchers will eat him up. He needs enough power to achieve roughly 50 XB a year. Doesn't matter how he gets them. 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 HR would be excellent. Add in 30 SB and we have a full time starting OF and probable leadoff hitter. His floor would be a nice utility role player. I'm very, very pleased with his AFL performance and solid 2023 at AAA. The 1.000 OPS in August only adds to my hopes for him. I think it's only a question of when, and not if, he's with the Twins. To me, it's not even a debate about he or Gordon, because I'm not so sure Gordon makes it anyway as I think the Twins are still adding another bat, probably Taylor or Duvall, but we'll see. There's still enough inconsistencies in Martin's game that a couple more months at AAA, playing daily, can do no harm. I get he's 25yo, but that isn't exactly ancient. And nobody is saying he should spend the whole year there. Just saying he's unproven enough, uneven enough in his AAA experience that a little more time instead of reserving a spot on the roster at the sake of someone else to begin the season doesn't make sense to me. I'd bet he gets 200-300 ML AB once is all said and done. Unless the Twins are just really, really lucky health wise.

After 16 excellent games and 87 IP at AA, I'd expect Person Ohl at AAA very soon, if not to start. I think he's flying under the radar a bit.