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DocBauer

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  1. Best? That requires a lot hyperbole. How about just say very good? I really like what they've assembled, and the depth. Duran is very much a stud. Stewart had been an outstanding find. His injury last season was more of a "tired arm" than anything serious, so I have hope he's going to get a full season. Jax started a little rough...had some weird crap happen...but was excellent the rest of the year until a bad stretch at the end. Thielbar isn't getting any younger, but he's still getting the job done. Now you add Topa and figure the young Funderburk and you've got 6 spots seemingly filled.if Staumont can come all the way back, even if he's not ready opening day, you've added a set up quality arm for next to nothing. I don't know what to think of Jackson, but he was good for the Jay's last year and was supposedly good in Japapsn for a couple of years, and might be a really nice middle man. If Alacala is truly fully healthy, and he appears to be, having options is the only thing that keeps him off the roster, IMO. He was good last time he was 100%. And there's depth of possibles that will be sitting at AAA. And yes, crunch time comes, there are rotation options that can slide in to the pen as well. I'm really optimistic about this pen. I can't remember the last time it looked this good/deep going in to ST. I just wish Moran weren't hurt.
  2. Kind of reverse order here. 1] I do think there remains a chance Lewis goes to the OF at some point. I'd think LF as he has the speed to cover it, more than enough arm for the OF. Lee could be a great 3B, but so can Lewis be. I don't think anyone wants Lewis at 2B...though he'd be great...because of a pair of knee surgeries. Too much chance of hard contact there. No reason Lee can't be a great 2B. And he and/or Lewis will be able to cover SS, along with Castro, so that's why Farmer is probably gone after 2024 despite having an option built in to his deal. 2] I'm also in the camp to not give up on Larnach just yet. Some guys just take longer to figure things out. I've watched a ton of him in the OF, and I know some are down on his defense and I don't know why. He's not fast, but he's not slow either. And he has a really good arm. Honestly, were I a team in trade talks with the Twins and needed OF and LH power, I'd be very intrigued by acquiring him. Solid defense, good power, not immune to BB, even if he needed to be sat against LH SP, he'd still start 3/4 of games, give or take some. Even if he hit .230 ish with a decent BB rate, he'd probably crank 30 doubles and high teens, low 20's HR numbers. Still not sure why teams like Seattle and Miami aren't interested. I'm just sure his opportunity to get 400-450 AB is going to come with the Twins. NOW, on to Kepler. Since he was signed as a 16yo...not drafted...I've been a huge fan and follower. I've ALWAYS stated that despite his talent and milb numbers, he was behind a lot of state side kids for various reasons. I've always thought there was MORE to tap in to his potential. And then 2019 happened and I thought FINALLY, we're going to see what he can really do! And then we got 2 and 1/2 years of utter disappointment for someone so talented. Even as a hopeful fan of his, I was ready to cut bait and move on in 2023 because I'd seen enough. Even his defense suddenly suffered because he wasn't having fun, and he was pressing for sure. But something FINALLY clicked mid season. (Remember I always thought he was behind in total development). He FINALLY seemed to realize he didn't have to be a "perfect" hitter. He FINALLY realized that his natural swing and power could produce good results if he just hit the DAMN BALL HARD and see what would happen, even as his K% went up. Shift or changes in the shift be damned. BRIEF INTERUPTION: The Twins hitting philosophy is NOT swing from your heals for HR and damn the torpedoes and K's! Their general philosophy is almost EXACTLY the Julien approach is swing hard at pitches you like, and work the count. Get a single, double, HR, a BB when you work the count, but a K is OK as just another out when you produce all the other good stuff. Anyone even listening to understand how this approach works? Kepler increased his K's, but produced the 2nd best numbers of his career doing so. And he ended up with a .260 AVG, still respectful .332 OBP, 484 SLG, and .816 OPS. His OPS+ was 121. Imagine if he could have done that for a full season instead of half a season. I absolutely don't expect Max to do that for a whole season. But it does tell me he FINALLY tapped in to his natural talent and an "I don't give a F" attitude where he realized he was trying to hard to be perfect. Actually, it's a lot like how Miranda did the same thing as a prospect in 2021 and his 2022 debut. But I don't want to digress. The OF reality of the Twins system is LOADED at this point with talent. E Rodriguez, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, Rosario, the newly acquired Gonzalez, Jenkins, and maybe Winokur, and there are others. There's even some non 40 man guys like Helman and Keirsey who might be solid pieces if nothing else. But the problem is the best prospects are all 21/20 in age coming in to 2024. Even if they are all healthy and follow a normal projection path, or HOPEFULLY exceed it...hope like crazy they do...do we really expect E Rodriguez is going to blow by every level and be ready in 2025? Same with Rosario and Gonzalez and J Rodriguez and Mercedes. IF, the Twins could move Kepler In a deal still to add a SP of quality I can see a way to make the OF and lineup work well if they sign another RH bat. Otherwise, I just don't see Kepler moving now. I actually believe, with some regression because his 2nd half was so crazy good, that Kepler FINALLY figured it out. So I would be on board with an extension of 2yrs with a buyout or option. I'd think 2yrs and $15M per maybe for 2yrs? There is a risk he slumps back to his old approach. But there's also a chance he's FULLY embraced his new approach and is worth even more going forward. I'd offer something like that because I really do think he's one of those guys who finally figured it out!! And I do think he'd like to remain a Twin. And a guaranteed 30M would be a life changing event in his life. But I'm not sure I wouldn't wait for ST and the early part of the season to see who the REAL Kepler is.
  3. OK, a lot going on here! 1}Farmer is at least slightly overpaid for his role, IMO. But for a quality veteran who plays solid defense with a decent bat...better against LHP which has been a team issue for years now...I don't think $6M really handicaps the team. He's probably done after this season and replaced with a younger, less expensive option, but he could fill a nice role in 2024 for the team, as he did in 2023. Personally, I think Castro is good to excellent in the INF. And I bet he continues to play some there this year. But he's also playing the OF. Guy can't do everything, which is why I think Farmer is important, and is only moved if someone has an injury and is in desperation mode for a veteran SS. 2}Santana isn't someone who's going to affect the Twins in a very large way this year. I'd be ecstatic if he could be as good as he was in 2023, or better, by somehow turning the clock back. I just don't know that I see that happening. But he can be valuable as a veteran influence, and a counterpart to Kirilloff's bat. I can see him as a really nice PH option. But the LH side of his switch hitting has really gone down hill. But as a 1yr $5M role player, he can help. But I hope the Twins don't hang with him all season similar to Gallo if his game suddenly disappears. Too many interesting options on the farm that may be ready in a couple months. 3}DeSclafani doesn't excite me. I hoped for and wanted better. Three years ago he was really good for the Giants. Playoff game starter worthy even as a #3. But he barely even threw in 2022 and was shut down with a bad elbow after 1 good month, 1 decent month in 2023. He might be OK as the #5 arm, allowing the luxury of using Varland as depth. And I'm sure the FO was trying really hard for another Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez kind of deal, to no avail. With no insult directed to Disco himself, I really wanted better. I just don't see him suddenly being the guy he was in 2021 going in to his age 34 season. However, I do mostly like our rotation. Lopez is a stud. The Ryan we saw last season for about 2/3 of it, was All Star caliber. Experience and changes in his repertoire and sequencing really paid off. Then he hurt his groin and tried to pitch threw it, throwing off the last 1/3 of his season. If he had be the same pitcher but for a whole season...more or less...he's excellent. Ober was just as good before getting a little tired at the end of the season after tossing over 160 innings. And I still don't think we've seen the best of him yet. Paddack pretty much replaces Maeda. The stuff is there with solid velocity, an improved breaking ball, and an excellent change. If his innings can be "stretched out" for a full season, I like our first 4 a lot. Even losing Gray, it's not like the rotation just fell apart to a collection of journeymen. 4}Jackson is another arm for the middle innings if his 2023 is for real. Topa could have a huge affect on deepening the pen. Imagine if Staumont actually makes a full recovery from his surgery. Even if he needs a little longer to ramp up and build up strength to begin the season, he's ANOTHER potential difference maker. Right now: Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Funderburk, and Topa are written in ink. That's 6 of 8. And now you have Jackson, Staumont, Alcala, and a slew of converted starters and recent signees for those last 2 spots and depth. I like this pen, right now, much better than the one that started 2023. (really wish Moran was healthy though). 5}I like the offense better than the one that began last season. I know Wallner, Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff aren't finished products yet. But they are very talented. I can accept a few bumps in the road because it happens to everyone. Factor in a healthy Correa, even a semi-healthy Buxton, a seemingly reinvigorated Kepler, and some nice bench options...not to mention some very interesting guys that should begin the year in St Paul...the offense should be good, and probably improved. But are the Twins done yet? I don't think so. I firmly believe another RH hitting OF is on his way, probably via FA. Even with a pending TV deal, I'm not sure Soler is a fit due to $ and years. But I think they could afford him. Duvall is small downgrade offensively, but better defensively, and has really close to even splits in his career, making him a solid choice who can even play a little CF here and there. Meanwhile, Taylor would bring better defense and more speed. I don't know that he'd hit 20 HR again, even if he got as many AB as last year, but with a healthier back, he might steal more bases. Tough call, but I'm expecting one of them, probably Taylor. After that, they might be done. I'm sure they won't stop trying to find a good pitching match, and move on from DeSclafini, or slide him to the pen initially. But can they make it happen? I sense a really strong reluctance to move any of the top 5 or 6 prospects in the system. And I don't think they want to move Kepler either. Is there a good match out there for a team that would like, and could use, 3 other top 20 prospects in place of a quality arm that is getting expensive, or will be, or will be gone, when the team is ready to actually compete? I just have this gut feeling the Twins FO is going to pull off something still that we just don't see coming and will be surprised when it happen. Or maybe...I'm just filled with too much hope. But no, they aren't quite done yet.
  4. Love the pitch mix, but like everyone else, that power knuckler is so tantalizing. From the videos I've seen of it, I'm a little surprised he doesn't throw it a few more times a game. Yes, at 23yo he should have been good at both levels of A ball, even as a "rookie." But he not only succeeded, he was really good. No question AA will be a bigger challenge, and one I can't wait to see the results from. While velocity isn't everything, I hope his goes up a notch or so. I had thought he was sitting 93-95mph consistently these days?
  5. I understand and appreciate the whole TV deal questions, payroll questions, surprises in the bankruptcy hearings, etc. I really do. But I'm still a little confused ownership didn't anticipate SOME kind of deal and SOME kind of money coming back in. I was hoping they would freeze payroll, perhaps see a slight dip due to all the unknowns. But like everyone else, I'm not happy AT ALL with a potential 20-25M drop for a team in contention. But embarrassed because the Royals are spending $ for the first time in...well...whenever...no. The Royals had a 2023 payroll of about $91M, $60M less than the Twins... while losing 100 games. And even with this spending spree, we're not even sure they won't match the Twins payroll when the dust settles. So I'm frustrated by the whole TV situation and any substantial cut. But I'm not embarrassed by the Royals going on some spending spree.
  6. I have mixed feelings on the signing. I mean, it's only $5.25M (supposedly with some incentives) and 1yr. He does bring a quality, experienced, veteran presence to the team, and I like that. He's still a solid/good defensive 1B. He's always been a grinder who doesn't K much, will take a bunch of BB, and has a knack for moving runners or knocking them in. The problem I have is he's going to be 38yo and is coming off his first above average season since 2019. His once vaunted OB% has dropped, and while switch hitting sounds good, he's much better swinging from the right side these days. I hope for the best for him and the Twins in 2024, but the IF factor is pretty high. IF he can repeat 2023, or come close to it, he's a good counter for Kirilloff at 1B, and a potentially excellent PH as well, who can also spend some time as a decent DH. If he's asked to play more than as a semi-regular 1B or DH, I think the Twins are in trouble. Because I think he's going to have a hard time replicating last year, much less improve on it. I don't dislike Santana in the slightest. I don't dislike the signing. I think it's actually a pretty smart, low risk, inexpensive move. And I'm hoping for the best. I just hope he's used properly, and not over used like a Morrison, or a Gallo, because the FO just HOPES SO MUCH that he can rewind the clock for one more year. Good move. It allows Miranda to prove he's healthy and ready, or to get so. And it doesn't put early pressure on Severino. But Santana should be an easy cut at $5M if he's hitting .199 with a .300 OB% and poor power after a couple of months.
  7. With his athleticism and arm, I could easily see him as a 3B a couple of years from now. Of course, just because he's large and probably still growing some more, doesn't mean he will necessarily lose his speed and be out of contention for CF. I could see him as a hybrid player who plays CF/OF as well as 1B, very similar to former Angels great Darin Erstad. Or...gulp...dare I say a Gallo comp defensive comp? As I stated in a different thread, he's probably the Twins prospect that I find the most intriguing.
  8. I don't think it has anything to do with DeSclafani directly. I think it has to do with disappointment we didn't get someone better than him. On top of that, his 2022 was wiped out due to injury after a handful of innings. And last year, he got off to a good start in April, was OK in May, and then fell apart before being placed on the IL for the remainder of the season. If we could somehow get the 2021 version of him, or the April 2023 version of him, he might just be a #3. But that might be unreal expectations or hopes. Meanwhile, I think a lot of people lose focus on Varland and only remember his last 3 starts in 2023 and that final ERA and WHIP. In 5 starts in 2022 he had a very solid 3.81 ERA, solid 1.231 WHIP, 26 hits in 26 IP, but a mediocre 7.3K. Last season, through his first 7 starts, he had an ERA of 3.51. He allowed 39 hits in 41 IP and ended the total season with a 1.221 WHIP and 9.4K per. His best performance was against Houston on May 31st where he blanked the Astros for 7 IP on only 4 hits. For whatever reason, the wheels seemed to come off the next 3 games and he was sent down until his September promotion. But it's those first 12 starts that have people like myself excited for what he might develop in to, at least a solid middle of the rotation starter. At least potentially. And I understand the depth philosophy. Even if Varland looks great in ST and out pitches DeSclafani, he won't be in the initial rotation barring injury to someone. He'll be in St Paul waiting for the opportunity that will eventually come. So again, I don't think anyone has anything against Disco per say, they are just disappointed we didn't somehow, some way, get someone better.
  9. Right or wrong, as of today, the FO is looking at a hopefully healthy Desclafini just being a solid 5th SP and letting Varland sit in AAA for depth for when someone gets hurt. Same path that Ober followed in 2023. The idea is the veteran doesn't have options, so you hold an arm back so you aren't asking Festa, SWR, or anyone else having to come up in April or May and be that 6th starter. Agree or disagree, that's the process. Funderburk is in the pen. I doubt Descalfini is in the pen unless we get a trade to add a quality prospect trade for a SP. A Duvall or Pham OF signing is the most probable signing. A trade of 2 top 10 prospects, with a couple 20's or so, possibly including the Gray comp pick included somewhere, to add a quality SP, only happens if the new TV deal convinces ownership to make that extra move. No clue at that point if Desclafini might be included in such a deal or moved to the pen. It does feel the Twins are doing all they can to build the best and deepest pen they can with multiple options available. Jackson may or may not be part of that. But it's apparent they are attempting to do so. I'm seeing a mix in 2024...as of today...of the Dodgers and Royals. SOLID roster with depth and flexibility combined with a solid rotation and deep pen.
  10. This signing really confuses me. I know he's 36yo and doesn't have a long track record, but are the Jays so deep that they didn't have room for him? He had a mediocre, sorta average 2019, didn't throw in 2020, had an almost invisible 2022, and put up a really good 2023. The ERA was outstanding, for what that's worth, with an excellent WHIP and solid but not great 8.2K. I know it was only about 29 IP in 25 games, but that seems like someone you'd like to have on the 40 man hoping for more in 2024. So yeah, I'm kind of confused he was just jettisoned. Were the Jays trying to sneak him through? If so, why has he been just sitting there for so long and nobody else snaged him? He would seem to be better than a couple other guys they've grabbed and cut already this offseason. There's probably nothing more here than a potentially solid middle pen arm. The upside is probably limited. It's just a little confusing to me.
  11. It's possible. But other than Kepler, what I THINK they want to move in a trade is prospects outside the top 5 who aren't on the 40 man, possibly including the comp pick they just got for Gray. That pick has good value.
  12. Bubba is an obvious choice. After that it gets a little harder. Would they try to slide someone like Balazovic through waivers. The just signed Duarte might be an option as well if they want to play the upside of a younger arm vs an OK 30+ year old who's been only average? Maybe Gordon? But my gut says they want to see what he looks like in ST unless they still add another RH OF bat.
  13. I love the memory lane aspect of these rankings. I was born in 1965, so my recollections of the 60's and very early 70's teams is really just what my dad talks about, and what I read in various places. So I have more of an emotional attachment to teams from the mid 70's on, when I began to follow and listen to the Twins. So I absolutely understand the wide variety of opinions as to who is the best and where teams should rank, and what criteria should b used. But this team does feel like it should be in the top 5...at least...based on record and dominance. So I won't argue whether being #2 is accurate or not, it's at least worthy of consideration I'd think.
  14. I understand the FO having patience and waiting for the right deal. It's often paid off. But I'm rather disappointed in this offseason so far. I understand that try as they might, they couldn't pull another rabbit out of the hat deal like Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez in past off seasons. It's apparent Polanco could bring in a return, but not the arm they need by himself. But again, why not add to Polanco and see what you could get? If rumors are true, Seattle wanted BOTH Polanco and Kepler and would have increased their return package. If we accept that, and the Twins would have maybe added a solid prospect or two, could the Twins have added one the Mariner's top arms? I think I would have done that and figured out the OF after the fact. I mean, Wallner goes to RF, sign Duvall/Pham/Soler as a RH OF bat, roll with them and Larnach and see what you might get out of Helman and Prato to cobble together a 5 man group that would also have Castro. It might seem a little disjointed, but I'd be willing to roll with that for a year if it meant that top SP came back. But...that didn't happen. And I just don't know that there is time or opportunity for a deal at this point for a top arm. And that's disappointing. NOT a fan of DeScalfini unless he's somehow 100% healthy and can return to his 2021 form despite turning 34yo in April. The Carlos Santana move makes sense if they aren't looking for him to be a daily player. He fits as a part time 1B/DH/PH. There should be enough $ left to add an OF still without blowing up the lowered budget. I would think Taylor...more speed and defense...or Duvall...more pure power...could be had for around $5-7M ish at this point. But could they grab Soler...not as good defensively as Duvall but potentially better offensively...on a 2yr deal for $13/14/15M per instead of the 3yr deal he was projected to get? Offense and bullpen that are strong can help cover the rotation some. Many ways to win baseball games. Witness last season when the leagues best staff the first few months couldn't buy some wins due to the struggling offense. Then, even though the staff slipped a little bit, the team won more games because the offense got figured out. There's still room to add and tweak and try to put the best team on the field to begin 2024. But I remain disappointed in not being able to add a better rotation arm, even though I like adding Topa to the pen.
  15. It's clear the Twins value Kepler, but I don't know that they over value him. He's almost always played really good defense, run the bases well, and despite a bad and disappointing 2 1/2 years with the bat, he's always been CAPABLE of suddenly turning it around. That happened about mid season last year. Seattle wanting him AND Polanco shows that other teams DO value him as well. Now, I've been saying he should only be moved in a deal this season because the OF is pretty barren if he's gone as all the prospects are pretty much AA to begin 2024, or lower. BUT, having heard that Seattle would have gone bigger on their end for a deal that included Polanco and Kepler... plus another piece or two possibly on the Twins end...if it brought back one of the Mariner's top arms on a 3 or 4 for 1 deal, I think they should have pulled the trigger. Then, grab a RH FA OF on a 1yr, put Wallner in RF, probably use Larnach as part of a platoon in LF, and go a little wild and dangerous and check out Helman and Prato as OF possibles to be added to the 40 man and just see what you can cobble together. That's not to say I WANT to move Kepler and possibly scramble the OF, but I'd rather have the top of the rotation arm and figure piece together the OF a little bit here and there. Just my thoughts. But I think it's clear other teams do value Kepler. I don't know about less than the Twins.
  16. It's not an exciting signing, but it's an inexpensive signing that fills a need. He's a solid career defensive 1B, can still, apparently, hit LHP, isn't completely feeble against RHP, and is a low risk move to share time with Kirilloff at 1B, PH, and maybe DH a little. If he's asked to do more than that, the offense might be in trouble. Still, he's a share/reserve 1B and Miranda doesn't have to be counted on out of the gate and Severino doesn't have to be rushed. Now, there should still be enough $ left to add a RH OF, whether it be the defense of Taylor, or the power of Duvall/Pham/Soler. Then snag Odorizzi or similar on a Milb rebound deal for extra depth, and the ST roster looks about ready.
  17. Seriously, why is this a question? In his 10 ML seasons he's been...never great...but above league average in 5 of them. Of the other 5 seasons, I believe his highest OPS+ was 92. And there were a pair of recent seasons in the 70's. And he's no longer positive on any defensive position is he? He doesn't even add to the floor at this point. Grab Taylor or Duvall, one more defense and one more offense, and either seemingly fits in to the 2024 payroll. OR, stretch the payroll a little more and grab Soler at 2yrs and $28-30M and add some potential RH power. But stop with floor or basement types.
  18. Payroll should be sitting around $120-123M right now as it was listed around $155-118M after the Polanco deal and the $ coming back. There is roster room, and I'd like to think financial room, for a Taylor 1yr deal/reunion, or grab a more powerful bat like Duvall or Pham. It would push the Twins to $130M-ish. That should be affordable from just about every opinion/speculation I've heard/read. Do they look harder at CF in Taylor? Or more power and offense from someone like Duvall or Pham? Soler might be too expensive, even if he has to settle for 2yrs and $26 instead of the 3yrs and $45M he reportedly wanted or was expected to sign for. Almost exactly 2 weeks until ST starts and these guys...and others...are still sitting and waiting. So patience might just let the Twins add that last/extra bat while still keeping the payroll in that $130M ish range.
  19. Bad in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Nice little resurgence in 2023. But at 38yo we're supposed to believe he can do it again? Not really crazy about this. Still, good 1B, good clubhouse guy, can probably at least help against LHP, and doesn't mean the team feels forced to depend on Miranda. (Coming off surgery and a really bad season and has options left to work his way back). And only 1yr and a little over $5M can't get too upset. Don't feel good if he's forced to do more than just be a part time player. Now, with a TV deal close to being knocked out, go get another bat.
  20. Can't wait to see this kid throw this year. Smart, classy, hard working, big and strong with velocity that sits mid 90's at least with a pair of at least decent secondary offerings to work with. And he'll oy be 18yo for most all of the season. Going to disagree somewhat on scouts and FO not having much information on HS arms. Top kids are scouted for a couple of years these days. And many of them go to showcase and tournaments. So they are watched and poked and prodded. But still, I don't know your information is as complete as a college prospect as it's got to be much harder to accurately value the levels of competition for HS players. And then you also have the injury factor on top of inexperience and less "prove it" time with your secondary offerings. But if you could build a HS pitching prospect, it would probably be someone like Soto.
  21. I feel a little better about him now than initially. Velocity is there, he's got some length and projectability to go with it, and either a decent slider or sweeper in the making. What troubles me is only pitching at low A after not appearing in 2022. Similar Twins draftees split time and saw A+ at the same time. And a couple have the potential to even begin 2024 at AA. I never have a problem with a young arm refining or adding a 3rd pitch. Even for a bullpen arm, a 3rd pitch of any decent quality makes a real difference. With his length and build and good velocity, I'm thinking a splitter and junk a straight change maybe? FB/SLIDER-CUTTER and a split might be devastating. But he just has to be at A+ to begin this next season if there is any real thought of remaining a SP. I mean, 23yo isn't ancient, but level/experience wise he's a half level/season behind the Twins 2022 picks. I'm kinda thinking to keep him in the CR rotation to give him IP and time to work on that 3rd pitch...again, maybe a splitter...and then move him to the pen mid year-ish. That MIGHT even allow for a AA cup of coffee at the end of the year if things fall in to place.
  22. I'm intrigued. A few bullet points. 1] I love, appreciate, and want as much good defense as I can get out of all of my players. I also want and appreciate positional flexibility. That being said, I'll take the better offensive player every time if it's even close. 2] There's been some debate about how much TOTAL $ is coming back to the Twins in the Polanco deal. But suffice it to say, current payroll sits between $115-118M. If we are to believe educated estimates of $125-140M as acceptable 2024 payroll, the Twins have POTENTIALLY $22-25M to spend. POTENTIALLY. Now, as to Soler, he's good. He's been inconsistent in his career, and I just have a hard time trusting a rebound season right before becoming a FA. But $15M per is NOT a large amount in today's game. I might be on board for 2yrs, but I don't like 3yrs. Too much risk for me, and the Twins, IMO. Career quad slash lines actually favor Soler over Duvall. And he's younger. I pay attention to defensive metrics, but I find them to be arbitrary and never 100%. I like that Duvall can play at least an OK CF. I kinda dismiss Duvall at 1B since he hasn't played it in years, never played it a ton, but I guess he could be expected to do so again in a limited basis. And I don't care if Duvall has almost neutral splits really. I kind of like it as he might be a part time CF option in CF. I'm looking at Duvall as being a regular, but not an every day player, and providing depth. And he still might be a better RH bat against LH pitching than Wallner or Kepler, so what's wrong if he's got neutral splits? Do the Twins want to have someone who is a primary DH unless they are special like Cruz? No. They want that spot open for half days off and to rotate. That isn't just Buxton. That's half days off for anyone and everyone. And it gets more complicated when Lee is ready and you might DH Julien as well. But guys get hurt, there is almost always SOMEONE on the IL, even for something small, so your 13 position player roster is always in flux to some degree. There are checks and balances to the entire roster that give Soler and Duvall edges in this arguement. More defensive flexibility, a 1yr deal, neutral splits, lower cost to MAYBE add a 1B option/bench option to secure that spot better vs even better offense, but higher $ for more years and at least a little less defensive flexibility. Soler might make the most sense if it's 2yr at $14-15 per. Maybe a player opt out after year 1? If it takes a 3rd year, I think I and the Twins are probably out.
  23. For myself, he's the most intriguing player in the entire system. I say that as Jenkins is simply considered more of a "he's going to do it, it's just a question of how well/great he may do it", and Winokur is maybe as good of an athlete but with more questions. Hence, my personal "most intriguing" label. Power is there. The arm is there. Overall athleticism is there. Above average to good speed is there, though I don't know enough yet to know if we're just talking playing speed to cover ground vs maybe stealing some bases. That's a hell of a base for a 19yo kid to work with! There is absolutely no reason to not keep playing him at SS until he proves he can't, possibly just outgrowing the position. But 3B looks like a good landing spot for him. But why not CF? Good speed, good length, cannon arm, all good qualities for CF unless, again, he just outgrows the position and loses too much speed. But nothing wrong if that happens and he ends up as a powerful corner bat either. (Again, 3B might be a good option as well). But let's be honest, IF he slows down appreciably, and somehow ends up at 1B 5yrs from now, but can hit decently and crank out 30HR, even that would be a great result. It all comes down to bat to ball skills and acceptable BB and K numbers. I understand the initial concerns, but we're talking 17 games from a kid right out of HS at this juncture. But the skills and potential are tantalizing, so I have no problem with him being ranked this high. And as I said in the begining, he's probably the most intriguing position player to me.
  24. Personally, I have a lot of faith in Kirilloff IF HEALTHY. And that's the crux of it all isn't it? I think any sort of suggestion that he might not "fit in" with the Twins profile is, at best, pre-mature if not misguided. He was brought along slowly in 2023 so that he could rehab his 2nd, and aggressive, wrist surgery. The fact that full, projected, power didn't click in completely is easily explained by getting in a groove, but also just "trusting" his wrist to not come back and bite him. I'd say mission accomplished! Repeating his numbers, .270/ .348/ .419/ .793 and an OPS+ of 117. 26 total XB hits...11 of them HR...in 281 AB. Those are good numbers. Good June, slipped in July, good July again. And then he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball. His wrist appears fine. I think, generally speaking, 1B is a fairly "safe" position unless you're stepped on, or get hurt diving for a ball. Can he recover 100%, and not take a great deal of time to do so, and his shoulder be fine? The Twins value power, and they should. And AK has power. But there is no "sell out" approach by the Twins that they only want K machines with power. That's only part of the equation. You also need some contact bats, good OB% guys, for a mix of approaches. Saying Kirilloff doesn't fit is like saying Arraez wasn't important in their lineup because all he did was get OB foe guys to knock him in. As chpettit19 pointed out, he hit primarily in the 2-4/5 holes because he was hitting, was getting OB, and was showing power and run production. How does a guy like that not fit in? It simply comes down to health. The wrist appears fixed. The reports on his shoulder injury and repair were good. Can he NOW put that injury history behind him for 400-450 AB? If so, he's an important part of the team and at least the immediate future. HOWEVER, there is nothing wrong with Julien being able to also play 1B. There is nothing wrong with the idea of letting Larnach try his hand there in ST to see if he can increase his value by being more flexible. Miranda and Severino may play a part in the future at 1B. That's a good thing, to have that depth. I wouldn't make any sort of major at 1B until or unless I know that AK is going to have further issues. Then it becomes a different ballgame altogether, pun intended. Sign Duvall for the OF. I only grab one of the remaining 1B options out there if the doctors and trainers are feeling concerned at this point. But 2024 might be Kirilloff's most important season.
  25. Adam Duvall still makes the most sense to me. Does the $ work? Would he do 1 year? Solid bat, and can play all 3 OF spots. And while he has some past injury issues, he needs to be a regular in the Twins lineup, but doesn't have to be an every day player.
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