DocBauer

I'm NOT going to lead this in to a discussion about payroll, but I do have to wonder if the 1yr agreement was in place earlier...and not delayed due to court proceedings...would the Polanco trade have been different? I mean, it might have still been with Seattle. But maybe the Twins spent a little more $ than they were comfortable with and signed someone Iike Wacha? I had HOPES for DeScalfini, but I never had trust. And that's part of the reason I've commented about adding an experienced, rebound veteran arm on a milb deal as additional insurance. Odorizzi seemed obvious, but he's gone now. Who else might be available on a milb deal to not feel pressured in to promoting SWR or Festa too early? Disco absolutely seems destined for a surgery he probably should have had last year. I know the Duran injury is a big blow. But I'd rather have an oblique injury rather than something wrong with his arm. As long as he doesn't rush back, 4-6 weeks doesn't destroy the season. Last I heard, Thielbar could throw at 100% but had trouble coming off the mound to field. If that's true, his IL stint is more about being able to perform completely and not re-injure himself. That could be as little as 2-4 weeks. I have to object to the Canterino reporting. Unless I've missed something, the only pitcher suffering from a scaplia injury was Winder, which was reported a few weeks ago. Have I missed something? Honestly, while depth is suddenly a concern, I had more faith in Varland than DeScalfini in the long term. IMMEDIATE depth is the concern. The pen MIGHT have enough depth to cover Duran for 4-6 weeks. I sure hope that's the case! I might be crazy...others have before, lol...but I've had this feeling that with the 2024 TV back in place, even to a lesser amount, that they were still allowing a little $ for an addition later on if needed. NOT a SURPRISE 1yr deal for Montgomery from old friend Boras, but another pen or rotation offer. Don't IMMEDIATELY cringe, but what if Cueto was brought in on a milb deal tomorrow? Or maybe Lorenzen? Not saying it will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

Appreciate the sentiment of changing the "integrity" if the game. But we're really just talking about practice getting ready for the season. In other sports, you can pull a player at any time and re-insert them at any time to get additional work or playing time. But not in baseball. But while we're actually playing games, we're also talking practice games that end in ties, that are inclusive of non roster players in the lineup or finishing the game. We get A and AA players from the 5th inning on a times who aren't even on the 40 man roster. Should they not be allowed to play? There is a difference between a player "losing" an opportunity in a practice game against a struggling pitcher vs a pitcher trying to get ready and you're worried about the number of pitches he's throwing in an individual inning. I have no problem with this as it not only works both ways, but it's also about getting arms ready, as well as protecting those arms from getting strained this early in what is, again, a practice environment. Are pitchers treated differently in ST? Absolutely. But what's wrong with that? Really. They are a very different and unique position different than any other position in any sport. Offering them this little "extra" convenience is a lot better than risking injury. As a fan of baseball, I'm OK doing this little "extra" something to keep them on schedule and avoiding injury because I'd rather have MY staff healthy and ready, and I'd also like to play games against the best if possible.

I love having the Twins win games in the spring because I ALWAYS want the Twins to win. But over 40+ years watching ST results I've learned that ST means nothing. I've seen batters rake, and be bad the 1st week or so when the season began and then settle in. I've seen pitchers look bad or ordinary and then look great once the season start. What few recognize is sometime a pitcher throws 3 straight pitches to a batter that they might not ordinarily throw, but they're just TRYING something to see what they can do and what might happen. Wallner is off to a slow start. He's getting locked in, His 1st HR, I'm pretty sure was against a LHP. It's all about getting swings and IP and working on things. I just don't pay much attention to the SSS of ST any longer. Spring training any longer is literally about AB and IP to get ready for the next season except for the 1 off who you hope for every year, like Castro last year. So NO, I'm not currently worried about ST results.

Considering it was a mix of players that were 18-25yo, A to AAA, the fact that it ended 8-8 in a tie was probably appropriate. I LOVE this entire format idea and hope it continues. It's good for baseball, good for the fans, and good for the players. My ONLY complaint...and I may be proven wrong with this...but the MLB channel should show all the games, either on a staggered airing, or on repeats. Now, again, maybe I'm wrong and they will show all the games on replay. Unfortunately, I worked today so I was only able to sneak in about the first 3 innings. But for what I did see... FESTA: The velocity was great. All arms and legs and a mostly over the top delivery, I can see him being a nightmare for batters not picking up the ball early. My personal eye isn't always good at picking up pitches as to what they actually are. I had a hard time picking up which pitches were sliders and which were change ups. They all seemed to come in at the high 80's. And that probably speaks to how good his stuff is that it's hard to see what's coming out of his hand. SOTO: An 18yo kid who hasn't pitched for about a year, facing at least a few hitters who were probably AA or higher...even A ball players have more experience than he does...the results were about what I expected. But as Nick reported, you can see where the excitement comes from, at least physically...I'm already a fan of the quality of the kid as a person...when you see long legs, a delivery that looks repeatable, and velocity in the high 90's. With his build, you can see him grow easily from 210lbs to 225 and carry it well. Pitching wise, what I saw was bad control initially. Then he seemed to settle down and hit the zone better and get a couple outs. Then, he lost control again, which lead to a run scoring walk and his exit. But I can easily see where all the excitement comes from! I was disappointed in Lawyerson when he came in. He got out of the inning, but he was wild. I didn't expect that. I only saw the 1 AB from Emma. I was concerned he might K, then he got the single. The SB was a second hilight. Yes, Jenkins being able to play would have made this an even better event. He might have hit a HR, or he might have K'd. But just seeing him would have been fun. One game can only reveal so many positives. But just being allowed to watch Festa and Soto was, by itself, a joy for me.

He's definitely behind both Alcala and Funderburk, IMO. Is behind Sands? Is he behind Sands only because Sands is on the 40 man? He's the kind of arm, still relatively young at 27, where he figures something out with the help of a good coaching staff and turns in to someone at least solid, if not good. But he might be nothing more than a AAA pen arm. But you build pens from "failed" starters in your system, and relievers in your system...who often are also former starters. But you also grab guys like him that are sometimes on the 40 man, but often are on milb deals, or waiver wire 40 man additions who you then pass through waivers for AAA. The Twins, over decades, and with our current FO have done a solid job in this practice. But they really, really miscalculated last year by not holding on to Coulombe and Hoffman. While the pen was stronger in the 2nd half of 2023, the 1st half pen would have been better with the OK Coulombe and the really good Hoffman. No disrespect to the guys brought in this year, or those already on hand, but the pen would look that much better and deeper if they had been smart enough to keep Hoffman, who had a really good spring, BTW. Here's hoping they don't make a similar mistake this year, or in the future. But Duarte is going to be throwing in St Paul. He's got to pitch his way back up to the ML level by improved performance as I think he's about the 11th or 12th man right now.

"Three ways the Twins emulate the Rays". Nothing in the headline or the OP stated they were trying to BE the Rays. PLATOONING? Platooning has been going on decade after decade in baseball. 8-9 guys in the lineup and usually a 12 or 13 man roster. Some bat RH, some LH, a few SH. Not everyone hits against both sides of arms on the mound. So there are platoons here and there in the lineup. Not everyone, but a few spots. This is not unique to the Rays, to the Twins, or to anyone else. Everyone platoons to some degree, here and there, and always has. POWER BULLPEN: Do we mean a hard throwing pen? Or just a good and deep pen that gets outs? I don't think it's just semantics. I think concentrating on a quality good pen is a good idea. Maybe it's an actual change in the game, maybe it's just a change in perception, but I do think there has been a greater emphasis on the depth and quality of a pen for a winning team. I think there's different ways of doing it. I don't think the FO has ever ignored the pen, but I do think this offseason they've made it more of a target than in past offseasons. I do think that the Rays are an inventive organization and as a result, I think a lot of teams have at least examined what they do. And they might be one of the teams that has really changed the usage and emphasis on the pen in recent years. So taking a good long look at someone who's doing something different and effectively is always a good thing. CUTTING PAYROLL: I don't think the Twins cut payroll in any way simply because the Rays have done OK with lower payrolls. If that were the case, then why didn't the Twins start about 4 or 5 years ago when they were on a seeming yearly climb in payroll? We can debate until we're all blue in the face...err, fingers...as to what the Twins bring in and their expenditures and where payroll is or should be. And I'm not saying I'm happy about the lowered payroll this year. ESPECIALLY because RIGHT NOW, they MIGHT have a chance to make a 1yr splurge on someone still sitting out there. But right or wrong, agree or disagree, 100% or only partially honest, the payroll didn't get cut until the TV deal looked to be over and done and gone. There's ZERO evidence after raising payroll for multiple consecutive years they suddenly woke up one morning and said to themselves: "Hey, the Rays don't spend. Let's cut payroll to be like them." I think learning how to do more with less is smart. I think building the best system you can is smart. I think building a good framework for pitchers to succeed is smart. I think finding the best ways to maximize your roster is smart. I think being careful at times to not offer too big or long of an extension to a player and a FA can be smart. But I don't think anyone is cutting payroll in Minnesota because someone else is running on a lesser one.

Its a good question. But without getting in to yet another detailed financial discussion in regard to ownership, I simply have to ask the obvious question which is "can they afford it"? They've got raises to several guys next season and Max would presumedly get $18M per wouldn't he? Maybe 2-3 years? That's $8M than he's receiving this season, not a fortune, but still wonder if they could do it. AND, might he get more and longer from someone else on the market if he can repeat his 2023? The Twins obviously like him, and he likes being a Twin. But while we're a good year or so away from our top OF prospects to potentially make an impact, I would have to bet Max is gone for 2025 if pressed to make a call.

I'm yet another of those that was done with Kepler last summer, even though I also was a big fan and hopeful supporter. After 3 1/2 years of a decline with the bat, I was ready to move on. Thankfully, the Twins were also fans, and smarter ones, and kept giving him chances. I think what he did...his change in approach...is definitely sustainable this year, and going forward, even with a drop in the outrageously good BABIP, simply because the approach makes so much sense. He sacrificed some soft contact that previously resulted in pop ups and ground ball outs to just gripping and ripping more for harder contact. That harder contact lead to more K's, but it also lead to more solid hits and XB hits. HIs contact still wasn't poor, just a little bit less but firmer when he did so. Here's hoping for the best!

I think trades of this nature ALWAYS have to come with the caveat of "did you get what you needed/wanted in the trade". And to me, that's far more important than "did my team win this trade"? Now, don't get me wrong. It's always nice to come out on top of any deal! But there's just SO MANY FACTORS to consider. Has Graterol turned out to be a quality RP for the Dodgers even though he's doing it in a different way than expected, more ground balls and less K's? Yes. Do the Dodgers have him for more years of control than Maeda? Well, duh, yeah, lol. That's what happens when you trade a younger player for an older one. But let's then look at it from the Twins perspective. Did we get a frontline SP to lead our staff in 2020? Yes we did! He was so good, he got Cy Young votes. Would any of us...bizarre covid year notwithstanding...really trade a wonderful and fun 2020 season, and all the enjoyment to have Graterol now? I wouldn't. And while his TJ was a MAJOR drag, he also helped the Twins to have a very successful division win in 2023 and subsequent playoff success for the first time in over a decade. I'm taking that as a WIN for the Twins, and us as fans! I have a really hard time looking at Raley as any part of the deal. He was a Dodger. Then a Twin. Then a Dodger again. Then he was traded to Tampa where he's had one good year, or at least half of one, at age 29. So 3 teams later, when you factor in all the moves, he had a good season. By that examination, we should still be bemoaning the loss of Rooker 2 plus years about 3-4 teams before he had a good year. BUT, if we really want to include Raley in the conversation...and I don't...if Camargo has a solid career as a #2 catcher, I guess we MIGHT win the deal. But the perspective is still skewed. GAINING what Maeda did vs what Graterol is doing is NOW is only part of the puzzle. Maybe having Maeda around allowed more time for Ober and Varland to develop? And in that same time frame, if you had Duran, and Jax, to simply "replace" the potential of Graterol still on the Twins roster, did you really LOSE anything? The Gray trade for Petty has been brought up in this thread, more for giggles than anything, but let's examine it for a moment. I HATE the old, tired axiom of THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS PITCHING PROSPECT. OF COURSE THERE IS! The Twins and EVERYONE has pitching prospects. We talk about them all the time! We might as well adopt a similar THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A HITTING PROSPECT since so many position players simply flame out. Petty, as a HS prospect, like most HS arms, has a long road ahead of him. So does top prospect Raya, drafted a year before Petty. Raya and Petty, almost the same age, threw almost the same number of IP in 2023, though Raya threw far more IP at the AA level. Let's assume Petty turns out to be a quality ML SP a couple of years from now. The Twins got a really solid 2022 from Gray in a season that tanked due to massive injuries. But he was solid/good. Then we got an excellent, Cy Young runner up season from him. And THEN we get a late round, early 2nd round pick for losing him to FA that might or might not turn out to be a ML player. But we got 2yrs of reality vs the potential of someone. Again, it's about perspective of what you gave up, what you got, did you have replacements on hand, AND did you lose so much you hurt yourself? I don't really like the win vs loss idea of trades for everything I've stated here. And over the course of decades of this FO and the previous FO, it could be argued about wins and losses. The current FO won with Duran. On a smaller deal, the won with Farmer. They won with P Lopez. They won with Taylor. They might end up winning or at least neutral with Alcala. They might end up with egg on their face for losing on the Mahle trade and the J Lopez trade. But the results of each trade should always be measured by the end results. The Twins got some great and good performances from Maeda. On its own initial investment, the Twins won that trade.

If you believe in FIELDING % as a stat, Kirilloff is just fine at 1B. If you watch a lot of games in which he plays, the eye will tell you he's not smooth, but he's OK there. He can be better. And I have to wonder if he's sound physically and the bat is working, does he relax a bit and just focus more on his defense to take it up a notch? I mean, he's been dealing with a lot the past 3 years with injuries, surgeries, batting numbers, the fate of his career, etc. Not going to make excuses for a professional not improving as much as we'd like in some aspect of their game, just wondering if less pressure would lead to more confidence. As for his bat? MOSTLY healthy for about 4 months he produced AVG, OB%, and power to the tune of an OPS PLUS of 117. I think he can do that again, and probably even a little better, as long as his wrist issues are behind him...they appear to be...and he doesn't severely damage some other part of his body. (minor injuries will always happen). I'm not a big fan of the Santana signing, with all due respect to his career. He's been pretty bad since 2019. He found a resurgence in 2023 that I have a hard time believing he will be able to duplicate in 2024 at age 38. And he's been mediocre to poor from the left side against RHP for even longer now. And that's a pretty big issue considering about 75% of all pitchers throw from the right side. Still, I don't hate the move. His bat from the RH side appears to still have some juice left. He's still at least a solid defender. There's definitely room for him in his role as a player and leader/professional example. But long term, 1B is going to need to be addressed at some point in 2025. And if AK's healthy, I believe his bat plays. PERIOD. But the Twins don't want a full time DH. They want a deep enough lineup where the DH spot is used to rotate different bats due to depth, and half days off for guys. So it's still paramount that Kirilloff continues to play and work at 1B. I still have some belief that Miranda's issue last year was his shoulder. Now that he's healthy again, there's an opportunity to regain his status as "part of the future of the club" as a 1B/DH/PH and possibly a sometime 3B. But he's going to almost assuredly begin 2024 with St Paul. And that's fine. He'll be up with the Twins at some point as long as he's healthy and producing. Long story short, a healthy Kirilloff has a quality ML bat that, potentially, might be well above average. With health, IMO, comes production that you make room for. But some of that "room" should be at 1B against RHP for the best lineup today, as well as preparing for the future. Just handing him a glove on day and telling him to go play isn't preparing him for either time line.

I'm a little higher on Cory Lewis from the 2022 draft, one pick after Matthews, but only a little. Guess a few more K's and a little more reported velocity gives him a leg up to me. But I'm not sure I'd call Matthews as under the radar. He and Lewis and Culpepper all seem to get a fair amount of love. There's other arms, including some from the same draft, that are talked about less. (In general, I know we're talking about this particular game). The numbers De Andrade put up as a 19yo were pretty awesome. He looks to have some nice upside as a hitter. He'd be a solid, young prospect at 3B, or even 2B, but he's that much more "important" as a prospect if he can stick at SS and not grow out of it physically. But not even 20yo for about 20 more days, he's got plenty of time to develop. Really impressed with the development of Rosario last season. Its my understanding he's not fleet of foot, and is rather average, but with a pretty decent arm. He's going to be all about the bat as what you're looking for is average defense at a corner spot. And that would be enough if the bat plays as potentially projected. I think arms like Crisostomo, Juan Mendez, and Miguel Rodriguez are more under the radar.

I have a dream. NOT the dream where Kate Beckinsale loves my eyes and my smile, but a dream where MLB wakes up and adopts various principles of the NFL and the NBA. MLB suddenly adopts a FLOOR AND a CAP for equitably profit sharing like the NFL does, WHILE each franchise can STILL collect $M of dollars on their own from merchandising and the such. STUD players get what they deserve, but lower level teams can't keep pocketing MLB welfare money. And if MLB wants to adopt some NBA ideas, they could allow things such as the mid exception cap to allow teams to add a player every year that might put them over the top. The STARS get paid. There's even room for some of the mid guys to get paid. And while the payroll and profit platform isn't perfect, it's at least more equitable than it is now. I remain STUNNED that MLB owners are utterly deaf to seeing what the NFL IS, and what the NBA is KINDA, while they twiddle their thumbs and say "oh my". They're NOT going to have a choice other than WAKE UP over the next few years. Wouldn't it be nice if the Pohlad's, reportedly well respected, took a lead?

Headrick is one of those arms that slips through the cracks. He was drafted in the 9th round in 2019 from a smaller school, which is the FO MO with size or something inherently good to work with. He threw 3.2 innings after signing just to throw. Like many others, he missed all of 2020. In 2021 he threw at Ft Myers ,which was A+ at the time. He did OK. He pretty much torched in the new HIGH A Cedar Rapids for half of 2022, and then was pretty good in AA Wichita. His stuff and improvement, and potential, made the Twins place him on the 40 man to begin 2023. He had a good ST in SSS. He was eradicate when called up. Some good, some bad. Both at AAA and with the Twins. He's not young. He basically didn't pitch for 2yrs...like so many...until 2021. He's actually been moved pretty quickly due to age and potential. He was a surprise 40 man addition following 2022. I don't know that his pure STUFF plays as a ML starting pitcher option. But had he been allowed to just throw on a normal routine for the Saints in 2023 instead of bouncing back and forth between AAA and the Twins in 2023, we might be looking at him differently today. Despite age, he's been rushed somewhat. Being rushed is not always a bad thing. It might be the FO believes in you. But being rushed can also mean a re-set to get your game together. Personally, from what I've seen, Hendricks has some solid stuff, but it's unrefined. He'll get his shot in 2024. But I think he's Thielbar 2.0. And that's not a bad thing

This seems about right to me with roughly 2 weeks left in ST. The Saints need these next couple of weeks for the team to gel and work together. Instead of getting a couple AB in a ML game, guys like Martin and Severino will play more and ramp up. Camargo gets to do the same, but also work more closely with the arms he's going to catch. The Twins still have 3 non roster catchers to work with the arms in camp. In regard to Martin, this is good for him. He gets to play more of a full game and work on driving the ball. It's NOT about power, just barreling up more to drive the ball for singles, doubles, and a few HR. He took a real upturn in his projectible status in the AFL and his limited AAA time. But he can't just "walk" his way in to a ML job. Camargo has improved his bat SO MUCH in the last 2yrs. Now comes just learning a bit more contact, a few less K's, a few more BB, and just keep focusing on defense and game calling. He's got a chance for a solid career. i ignore a kid like Severino having bad numbers in SSSS for his 1st ML ST. NOBODY expected him to rake at this point. He was there as part of the 40 man for experience, coaching, and experience. I have some doubts about his future, but I'm also intrigued by his potential. He has generally even splits as a powerful switch hitter. That alone makes him interesting. Hell, from the day he first signed with Atlanta his entire story is interesting! But he's going to be at AAA at 24yo. I fully expect him to continue to K at 30%. And I fully recognize there is a major difference of milb numbers vs actually being at the ML level! But when a prospect, even a powerful high K prospect can maintain an OB% that is 80 points higher than his batting AVG, I pause for a moment. It makes me think he might have AT LEAST a semi decent BA and continued decent OB% to go along with his power. He wasn't great in 1/4 of a season with the Saints to close 2023, but he wasn't bad either. He still had a .832 OPS. Not bad for an introduction. Barring trades, I'm seeing him and Miranda as part of 2025 and one gone.

I feel like almost everything here about Ryan could apply almost directly to Varland and his new 2 seam sinker. The one game of Varland's against the Pirates, his new sinker looked pretty good to me. I can absolutely see a sinker working in Ryan's favor, even if his K numbers and percentage go down somewhat. While strikeouts are great to have, outs are the most important thing. A few less K's, and a few more easy ground outs and double plays are not only just as effective getting those outs, but it might even shave a few throws off of his IP, allowing to go just a little bit deeper in to games. I'm no expert on pitches themselves, or recognition of them at times. But I'd be really interested in a breakdown of his slider success pre groin injury and post. While not an elite pitch, I thought his slider worked pretty well the first 3-4 months before he was pitching hurt, and then rehabbed but not as affective. Now maybe what I was seeing was the sweeper and/or splitter and not the slider. But I could have sworn I saw a pretty decent slider the 1st half of the season. But even if I'm mistaken, I can still see an average slider working well 15-20% of the time against LH batters.

I think expansion may happen. I hope to the baseball gods it DOESN’T happen! The leagues and divisions are perfectly balanced right now as is. The league is a complete cluster of a mess financially right now! Some teams, Yankees for instance, have their own unique TV deals in place for the near future, at least, and from that and pure population base, have and will always have a financial advantage. Meanwhile, there's more than the 8 teams listed in this OP that have cut, or going to cut, may cut deeper, or have virtually ZERO clue any sort of pending 2025 and beyond broadcasting deals. Some teams have barely been solvent the past few seasons like the A's and Ray's. One has done well and might do better with a new stadium...still a few years away...and the other is such a mess they can't even make the HOPEFUL move to Las Vegas anything other than a messy dream. And some kind of "buy in" deal to MLB for an expansion of teams is a limited reward. Someone please tell me what cities are left that would be viable, profitable options???

Absolutely not an apologist for thr Twins owners, even though I feel that, generally speaking, they do a good job with the organization, and within baseball, and within the community. I hate not spending every penny you can to put the best team on the field every season. I'm really not happy payroll has been cut this season after reaching the playoffs, and having a team primed to do so again. But what this OP announces and details us it isn't just a Twins issue, despite the fact this is about the 12th article about payroll in one form or another since the season ended. The Padres spent way more than they should have, had a huge TV deal, and lost it. Payroll gets cut by 37.5% because not only did they reportedly overspend, but they lost their big TV deal. Thr Angels, who are in LOS ANGELES, cut payroll by 24.4%. I know they're run poorly, but you have to cut payroll in LA?? The Rangers, in a much bigger market than the Twins, and with a TV deal more than double that of the Twins, flush with playoff money, still cut their payroll by 12.4%. What happens to the Rangers next offseason when they aren't getting their approximately $85M that they are receiving for 2024? Is there really a cable or streaming package that's going to rescue them and toss them a $85M life preserver? Without having anything other than educated guesses available to us...with a couple exceptions...we just don't really know how much the Twins, or any team, actually takes in for yearly income. But we do have reports of what some of the TV packages that have expired, been dropped, or are on their last year are worth. And it's not small amounts. That's why you're seeing teams, even teams in larger markets, dropping payroll. And since none of these teams know what's going to happen in 2025 at this point, more cuts are probably coming for some of them. Now, some teams have different deals with different broadcasters that pay well and aren't disappearing. That stinks for the health of the game. And it's about time MLB gets their s**t together and figure out how to make something work with better balance. And that includes getting rid of blackouts and looking to expand internationally. I guess nobody could be blamed for believing so many ownership groups just got cheap and are cutting payroll now because the team income dropped. But do we really believe billionaires across baseball, in all different sizes of markets, are worried about trying to recoup a few more $M? Or is it actually possible that these teams are actually cutting payroll because the loss of the TV revenue actually has them in the red or potentially facing it? I'm just worried how big of a mess it's going to be for the next few years. MLB often adapts and progresses at a drunken snails pace.

Just to add, when Prielipp first had his 2nd surgery, it was reported as TJ surgery. Then it was reported he didn't have another tear...maybe a sprain??...and the brace was put in place. So I think you're right that the whole procedure is a bit of a mystery as to what happened, what they saw, and the recovery plan. It doesn't appear to have been an actual TJ surgery, but more of an additional procedure to add greater stability? If true, we shouldn't be looking at a 14 month rehab. But I have a hard time seeing 6 months either. But it would seem mid season to begin to rehab and throw normally. If he could be cutting loose about July, even on limited innings, that should put him on course for a normal 2025. That could mean an escalation through A ball and a finish at AA. And that could mean a debut, potentially, in 2026?

I'd definitely like to see Canterino at St Paul for sure. I'm just looking at DeScalfini feeling good and projecting as of NOW to be ready when they need him. So I'm just speculating there might be a crunch for the first month. Hard to find anyone as high on Canterino than me! :) I'm confused about Ohl. I think there is NO SP flying under the radar in the entire system more than him! Despite great control and a collection of solid secondary offerings, a really good 2023, and reportedly throwing mid 90's consistently these days, why didn't he get an invite to ST? Are they trying to "hide" him a little from other teams? Doesn't make sense to me because if he's what I think he might be, he could see ML time in 2025. I'm higher on Dobank than you and others are. Hes not a prospect, and hes not part of the Twins future. But with his experience, if his hand is finally 100%, I could see him doing great at St Paul this year and be a viable call up June/July if injuries hit and the Twins don't want to turn to a younger Festa or Canterino at that point. I think Ohl MIGHT start at AA just becasue of Varland, SWR, Festa, Hendrick, Canterino potentially at AAA. But yeah, I'd like him at AAA too. I generally agree on your AA rotation though. But I'm wondering if Carr isn't going to shift to the pen? The velocity and K's haven't really been great. He might be better in the Pen? Nowlin is also one of my favorite "is anyone paying attention to this guy" prospects. IF he can get a little more consistent, he's a viable back end rotation arm, maybe with #3 potential. I think he's a potential stud pen LH option if the rotation just doesn't turn out.

I've watched Wallner enough to see he has a pretty good eye, that's why he walks so much. I've seen him shorten up his swing and make adjustments and still drive the ball. And I've followed him throughout his milb career and monitored his numbers, and he constantly improved month to month at every level to he advanced to. But that's an eye test, not numbers. 12 games, 43 PA at Cedar Rapids in 2019 is the only time he's been under .800 for an OPS and it was .794. And it was for 2 weeks. His 4 year career MILB quad slash line: .274 AVG/ .361 OB%/ .511 SLG%/ .898 OPS. As I posted in a different OP regarding Wallner, take all 4 of those numbers and cut them by 30 points. Even 40 if you want. That's still a hell of a powerful and productive ballplayer. He's off to a good start with his 2022-2023 seasons. I can't wait to watch more. Does his early success and milb numbers offer proof he's going to be good? Absolutely not. But when you have a talented athlete who puts up big numbers everywhere he goes, wouldn't you want that as a starting point?? He's actually pretty fast and runs well, he's just a big guy who takes a second to get going. He's got that cannon of an arm. He's barely played LF, but he looked like he was getting more and more confident there last year. In 2025 he's probably in his more familiar RF, where his arm plays even better, and where he'll actually have a little less ground to cover. Defensively, the only real issue I've seen is some bad recognition and some bad routes here and there. He works on those things and gets better, he can be average defensively, and above average with the arm factored in. As far as LF in 2025, that will take care of itself. But, FWIW, I'm betting it might be Martin as the primary, and he'd help cover CF for Buxton. Castro will play LF, and Larnach might yet turn out as a corner OF/DH for us. But that's a whole year away yet.

If Varland does end up with the Saints to begin the season, I wonder if that bumps Canterino down to AA initially? Considering what he did in AA last time he was healthy, the argument can easily be made he should begin at AAA. But might Wichita be a little warmer maybe? Maybe coming off surgery and so much missed time, maybe he gets the first month there to warm up and get in a groove? Just speculating. I'd love to see him at AAA, but just wonder about a numbers crunch to begin with. Same with Pierson Ohl, who I don't think will be at AA for very long.

Despite what turned out to be a mild shoulder injury to end his 2023 on a downer note, the key, IMO, for Kirilloff has ALWAYS been the wrist issue, which seems to have been solved FINALLY via his last surgery. He was brought along a little slowly last season to give him ample time to ramp up and make sure his wrist was strong. When he came back, he hit at the top of the order almost daily, primarily in the 3 spot, but with a mix at the 2 and 4 spots as well. He hit, and he flashed power and production. He also appeared to be a more mature hitter in that he was suddenly walking at a higher rate than previous seasons. Unless SOMETHING ELSE happens, I'm expecting/hoping he has the best ML season of his career this year, and I believe he's a fixture for the next few years in the lineup. The guy can flat out hit. In 2021 Alcala was OK the first half of the year, but a bit of a tease. He'd flash, but then not look so good his next time out, or the 2nd inning in the same game appearance. A fair amount of that was LH batters. His second half of the season he seemed to really develop his change. And the results were pretty dramatic. His second half ERA dropped almost 2 full points. His AVERAGE-AGAINST and OBP dropped about 50 points each. And his SLG and OPS dropped about 180 and 206 points respectively. That's why there was a ton of optimism for him for 2022 and beyond. Now, does that mean he would maintain that kind of newly found success against the opposition? No. But it really looked like he was turning in to a valuable part of the pen, even a potential set up man. Cue 2years of injuries and missed opportunity. But now he's healthy and throwing high 90's again? I can't help but have a lot of optimism for him at this point. I'm hopeful for Miranda, though I agree he has the hardest fit with the team, at least for now. They key to Miranda when he was in the minors was STILL making contact, but to ignore weak contact and wait for loud contact opportunities. In 2021 he did that and made himself a top prospect. During his rookie 2022 season, for the most part, he maintained that approach and was very successful and teased for more in the future. Last season, with a bad shoulder, loss of strength, and maybe even some frustration and desperation, the loud contact disappeared and he started nubbing and popping out on every high and outside pitch he saw, bringing back the weak contact he was too often looking for in his early prospect days. In limited action so far this spring, it really is starting to look like the 2021-2022 Miranda is back, or on his way to being so. Unfortunately, his path to playing time right now is blocked by the veteran Santana. IDK, maybe Miranda gets all the way back and becomes a very nice trade chip to someone else, obviously after getting some quality ML time. Maybe he split his season between St Paul and the Twins and takes over for Santana in 2025...if not before...as a RH 1B/DH/PH who you could still sneak in at 3B here and there during the season. If he hits like he's shown he can...if not better...the Twins will find room for him. It's a little hard to answer WHEN, but they'll find room for him. OR, he might be on his way as part of a deal at some point.

Not going to speculate on how good or bad DeSclafini is going to be this season. The question is his readiness for 2024. His sore elbow was apparently just that, sore, as the Twins didn't feel it was anything warranting imaging. He threw a 35 pitch bullpen on Saturday the 9th with normal effort, as he did a smaller session, also with full effort, on Monday the 4th. I read somewhere that as long he was fine after the 9th, he was probably getting a start, which should mean this sometime this week. If that holds true, he should get in 3 starts before the season begins. After that, he can work with the team, or stay in Ft Myers and get in a 4th start against minor leaguers to continue his ramp up. Should the Twins skip him the first 10 days, the other 4 starters will all perform on either normal or extra rest. So unless Disco has a setback of some sort, I don't see any issue. The only question would be whether it's better to have DeSclafini work with the team, or keep him in Florida for a few more days and run with an extra pen arm for those few days. IF there's any health setback, THEN we have more to talk about.

I like to think I'm smart enough and have enough perspective on things to not get stuck on hype trains. Now, I can be a bit of an optimist. And I don't think it's climbing on board the hype train to be optimistic about this pen. As has been pointed out already, it's really hard to predict any individual in a pen, or a pen at large, from year to year. A couple bad weeks can ruin a month, etc. But I like the depth of possibilities this current incarnation of the pen holds. I honestly have no questions about Duran or Jax that you wouldn't have for any reliever. I believe in Stewart a lot and even if he regresses some...he will...he's really good. But can he go 50-60 IP this year? Thielbar had a nice 2023 and threw as hard as ever, and was K-ing over 10 per inning. He appears to still have some gas in the tank. He just needs to avoid nuisance injuries like pulled muscles, similar to last year. I have faith in Topa because breakout season or not, we see it. Stewart was an example last year. And Topa did it for a lot of innings. I don't know that he's anything more than a really nice 6th-7th inning guy, but I'd take that in a heartbeat. Okert has been successful for a few years now, and was pretty good in 2023 as well, despite a higher ERA than before. (ERA is obviously not the best way to measure a pen arm). His whipping, almost side arm delivery adds deception to his stuff, and as long as he doesn't leave something straight and over the middle, his stuff is pretty nasty most of the time. If Staumont can regain even 90% of his previous form, what a great signing! I can't say I have a lot of faith in Jay Jackson. He went to Japan to get his career going and his results, but even in relatively SSS, he was good in 2023. He's a complete flier. But he didn't cost anything but a minimum deal, so why not give him a shot and see? I like Funderburk and I have strong hopes for Alcala. I haven't given up on the young Henriquez now that's fully transitioned to the pen, as long as he's healthy. (he fought injuries in 2023). And there's a chance the non-roster Duarte can help even as one of the last 2 arms in the pen. Of course, there are other options available to help and certainly don't have to run through all of them and all possibilities. But there is often strength in numbers to give you the most ammunition, the most possibilities to choose from. Who we have, and the numbers we have, fill me with optimism.

Thanks for the great breakdown! I think we all can agree, other than an IL for Desclafini, Varland begins the year at AAA, right or wrong, as Ober did a year ago. SWR and Canterino the same, though Cantetino MIGHT get some early AA time, IMO, in what might be slightly better weather to just his "groove on" plus a potential initial roster crunch at AAA as they sort out the arms there. Personally, I'd rather they just jettison some of the milb FA they brought in and just make room. What your list proposes is the Twins have ONE bullpen spot available to begin the season, everyone healthy and ready to go, including Disco, who is a wait and see despite reports he's throwing and going to be ready. Despite options or no options, barring an injury, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, Topa are all locks. And I'd say deservedly so. Okert has a solid history and is also a probable deserving lock. That's 6 of 8 bullpen spots. You're right when we talk about the last spot, or two, being flexible for bullpen rotation. But if you have a solid rotation and pen, does that flexibility matter? Sands spent most of 2023 as a sacrificial lamb who barely threw at the ML level at times. So who fills the final 2 spots in the pen? Well, the re-invented Jay Jackson went overseas to find himself. And he has not options. And he did well for the Jay's last year. But his $ is negligible. So if he stinks, he costs next to nothing to let someone else to take his spot. How many others have we seen DFA the past few seasons and then go back to St Paul? But Jackson is certainly a candidate to make the roster if he's actually showing something. And why not? Not to sound disheartened, but he'd be an easy DFA if things don't turn out. Can Staumont get his game together? If he can, he was a tremendous signing. If he needs more time, how do the Twins make that work? And he does have an option. Meanwhile, there are the arms of Alcala and Funderburk, and maybe someone like Henriquez sitting and waiting. I DON'T agree the Twins have assembled some pen with no options. Point in fact there ARE pen arms with options, and only a couple of arms without options that could be easy DFA options for the last couple of spots if they don't produce.