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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Just really glad to see him back playing again. I don't like hearing his back is an ongoing issue. But the fact that he's done such a good job of handling it throughout his college and pro career gives me hope it won't be a major issue going forward. I mean, isn't this the first we've even heard of it? I'm still a fan and believer in Julien, despite his recent struggles and reset at St Paul. He was great in college, great in milb, and pretty much great in his ML debut in 2023. Even his first month this year was pretty good. I don't know yet if Lee is going to be a STAR. But I think he's going to be very good. Getting better from his RH side just might take him to that STAR level one day. Something about his approach and swing tells me he's probably never going to be a 30HR guy. But I suspect he's going to hit 20 dingers consistently with 30+ doubles every single year. Combine that with a probably .270-.280 AVG, .330-.340 OB% and you have a very good ballplayer. The Twins INF, by next season if not later this year, should be Lewis, Correa, Julien, Lee, and Miranda. Castro is also part of the INF dynamic. HOPEFULLY, Kirilloff will continue to adapt and progress the rest of this season to lay at least partial claim to 1B duty. That's a HELL of an INF! There are 4 spots to fill, as well as DH filled by a probable time share, including some OF also seeing time at DH. You just never have TOO MUCH TALENT. Guys will get hurt once in a while, or need days off. But between 4 total INF spots, and DH, it's up to Rocco and his staff to get playing time for everyone. It's a good "problem" to have.
- 6 replies
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- brooks lee
- edouard julien
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Three Silver Linings to Edouard Julien's Demotion
DocBauer replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know that Julien being sent down really has an overly direct correlation to Larnach, Kirlloff, or Miranda, other than the fact that they are doing better so they didn't get sent down. But I do agree that celebrating this trio doing a much better job is a good thing. Miranda adapted his approach in 2021 and became the top prospect a lot of Twins officials had been hoping he might become. His 2022 rookie season offered up a lot of promise, with some of the usually speed bumps we see from such a young player. The way he's produced this season would seem to clearly indicate his forgettable 2023 season was due to his shoulder injury. When it comes to Larnach and Kirilloff, I often think we need to remind ourselves that due to injuries, these former top 100 prospects are still sitting at less than 1000 ML plate appearances, and less than 800 ML AB's. Both have had their progress, and thus careers, slowed. Right now, it sure looks like Larnach has changed his approach and adapted well. He's doing well. Kirilloff started slow, slumped terribly, but has picked up power and production the past couple of weeks again. Here's hoping both can continue to improve and contribute as this year could be paramount to their futures. There are others directly behind them that would love the opportunity to prove they are ready. One of those is Wallner. If it's best for him to stay at St Paul a little longer and continue to thrive and work on a couple things, that's fine with me. The Wallner we saw to begin this season is not the ballplayer we've seen at the milb or ML level previously. But he HAS been hot and producing and looking like the player we expect him to be. Speed bumps happen and not all development and career starts follow a linear path. I do think Julien has a great eye and a good bat. I swear when watching him at times that he knows the strike zone better than the umps. But he absolutely needs to adapt to the borderline outside calls and be more aggressive at times earlier in the count. Much like Larnach, AK, and Wallner, pitchers are going to throw him fewer fastballs. And he has to adapt. I have a lot of faith in him, and I think he's going to be back and be fine. But a reset sure seemed to be in order. -
I always fear the Guardians. I had them finishing 3nd this year, but relatively close to the Twins. Unfortunately, we can't undo a bat start to the season that put the Twins in this hole. In my mind, there are 2 factors that allow the Twins to catch them. 1] You play who's on your schedule. Period. You might catch a team that's cold, or they may be hot. So I don't always buy in to strength of schedule. BUT, we're a THIRD of the way through the schedule so far. So looking at a "swap" of strength of schedule isn't without merit looking forward. 2] Cleveland's offense is always built on contact, with a little speed and some power. They have to string hits together to score runs. The data presented indicates they've been scoring more than they should be. These things tend to even out over time. And a weaker schedule so far, might explain some of the Guardian's "luck" or performance. Conversely, the Twins HR production is down from what was expected, though their doubles production has been very good. Personally, while sitting about middle of the pack in overall run production, I think the Twins offense has been under producing. And we know who's been generally awful, but we also know Lewis is back, Julien and even Wallner may help produce a better 2nd half production. But also, Larnach and Miranda have surprised and both are looking like they're going to stick. The offense takes a step forward that the talent on hand SAYS they should, that goes a long way to a team that can win more games. For the most part, the pitching has been there. Cleveland is in the driver's seat right now. A change in opposition on the schedule and an offensive tick up for the Twins, 7-8 games with 2/3 of the season left to play, is not insurmountable. Of course, it sure would help to beat the Guardians head to head later in the season. I do expect some regression from Cleveland. But the Twins just need to worry about putting the best team on the field and winning every series they can. You don't overcome anything in a day.
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They aren't trading Kepler. Not only is he a favorite, but moving him lowers OF defense, he's been one a very good offensive run since June/July last season. Maybe the best overall run of his career. While it might be SSS, he's actually hitting LHP well this year and should be playing daily and forget platooning RF. The offense needs to step up. It's not bad, but not what was expected or hoped for. Lewis back makes a major difference. IMO, Larnach has FINALLY taken the step forward we've all been waiting for. He's been a bit limited in the OF due to his toe, but hopefully that starts to get better in the near future and he's able to play the field more. LF has been about league average this year due to Castro, Larnach, and a little bit of Kirilloff. I don't see corner OF as being a major need unless there is an injury. Miranda is looking like the player he was in 2022, and that we hoped for in 2023. I'd be shocked if Julien doesn't get in a groove and come back up and take over 2B fairly soon. And it's starting to look like Wallner is getting back to being the player we've seen the past 3yrs at all levels. I don't want to give up on Kirilloff, and I don't think the Twins have, but I can see Wallner replacing him come July. Lee might just replace Farmer at some point, though they've got to find room for him to play often, and not languish on the bench. Julien filling in some at 1B? More than enough bats to make DH much stronger than it's been. I just don't see the Twins adding payroll for a rental bat and sacrificing any prospects when what they really need is the hitters on hand just performing as they are capable of. In no particular order, I COULD see any of these happening: 1] The whole having a RH bat on the bench to help with platoons is a good idea. But it really only works well if that RH bat doesn't stink against RHP. That's not Margot, and I don't know if it's Martin yet. A cheap deal for a solid RH hitting OF who can actually hit RHP might be on the table. 2] IF Stewart has lingering issues, I can see an arm added. If Thielbar continues to be up and down with his performances, and Funderburk doesn't settle down on his control, I could see a LH arm added. BUT, a healthy Stewart, Varland as a pen option come September, Thielbar settling in, and Funderburk getting his control back, (he's got good stuff), might make this a moot point. 3] While I think this highly unlikely, if a team like the Marlins are going to move arms to build their bats for 2025 and beyond, it could be a surprising time to add a controllable arm. If the bidding doesn't get crazy, I can see prospects like Keaschall, Gonzalez, maybe Wallner or AK?, Rosario, Schobel, and a few others, with a solid arm included, in a deal. A 3 or 4 for 1 kind of deal that doesn't touch our top 3, or Festa, or Matthews, but makes about everyone else available, COULD happen in a surprise addition. The #1 and #2 moves are the most likely, IMO. And injuries could affect if they make any moves at all. But I think the talent on hand is what they're going to run with, a few roster changes happening here and there.
- 34 replies
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- max kepler
- christian vazquez
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Up until a week ago, our starting OG tandem was Ingram and Brandel. I gram has started 32 games in his 2 year career. I have hopes he'll continue to improve. Brandel has started 5 games in his career, though he's suited up and appeared in more than that as a reserve. I have hopes he might turn in to a quality starter. But again, he's only started 5 games in his career. (Reserve options Byrd and Robinson, a pair of first year practice squad players, have never started a game, and I'm not sure either has ever appeared in a game.) Risner has appeared in 77 games in his career and started 73 of them. So he's started more than double the amount of games that Ingram and Brandel have. So yes, he brings a veteran presence to the OL. More specifically at OG.
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Where the Twins stand after (about) 60 games
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
@stringerbell, a great post! And a lot of good responses. A few points I'd like to address with my own thoughts/opinions. 1] We can't eliminate the Twins poor start no matter how much we wish we could. But since then, even with that 7 game losing streak, they've been producing wins at a 90+ final tally. That's pretty crazy considering that horrendous start. 2] I'm NOT disparaging what Cleveland has done, or is doing, but it's hard not to look at scheduling and see a large disparity between the 2 teams at this point. The Twins have the advantage going forward. But the Twins also have to perform better against the Guardians or they might lose the division simply due to head to head W/L. OFFENSE: I am NOT trolling anyone when I say that while the K's are way down, so is the power and run production. Nobody wants a K record, but it's an interesting note that all K's are not created equal, and sometimes they might be acceptable if the power is there. I do believe the Twins are near the top of MLB in doubles, however. Lewis is back, and his difference is of great importance. Buxton getting hot at some point might be almost as important. A healthy Miranda and a matured Larnach have played an important part. Kirilloff hasn't exactly stunk, but his inconsistency has been maddening. Can he take the next step? Wallner is looking like his old self at AAA right now. Julien still has so much potential even with his reset. Do you want to bet against them for the second half? Farmer is still producing very poorly. And I have a hard time giving "at a boys" to a decent 7-10 days for Margot. Personally, I'm still thinking both will be replaced in the second half by better, younger, more productive bats. Vazquez isn't going anywhere, so we have to hope for the best. Santana has actually been pretty solid since an awful start. He's been somewhat inconsistent, and I wonder if he can keep it up for the rest of the season, but he's been at least solid if you look at the numbers. Verdict: Looking up with Lewis back, Larnach and Miranda producing, and hopefull returns of Julien and Wallner and possible debut of Lee. ROTATION: The Twins still have a really good staff, with SWR saving their butts when Varland unexpectedly imploded. Some of the ERA issues, as a team, are on him. With a little luck, the Twins aren't going to have any major injuries here. At some point, Varland and the almost ready Festa are going to get some starts. Both have the potential to be solid, Festa still young and growing, and Varland PROBABLY ending up in the pen come September and maybe beyond. That doesn't mean either, or both, can't still offer up a few decent games at some point. They are going to have to monitor Paddack's IP at some point. Verdict: Hoping for health and status quo, juggling some innings here and there. But as is, RIGHT NOW, this is a good rotation. I don't know that anyone is coming in on a white horse of rescue if someone falters, but the depth isn't awful. BULLPEN: So we can laugh and point fingers when the pen falters after pundits proclaimed the Twins might have the best pen in the league preseason. We'll, despite a bunch of injuries, they rank amongst the top 3rd in all MLB. That's not too shabby! Duarte looked promising but is out for the season. Topa was projected to help a lot, and if we're lucky, he's back for the 2nd half. And the Twins survived IL losses of Duran, Thielbar, and Stewart as of now. Nick wrote a great piece about all of this. Alcala has looked even better as of late, but to be fair, he was pretty damn good before his recent demotion when only throwing 1 inning. Rocco has finally seen the light to use him as such, and let Sands go back to being the 8th guy who can toss a couple innings. Okert hasn't been great, but he's been pretty solid. Way too early to tell on the revamped Staumont or the "return to form" Castillo, but the early returns are good. Verdict: The proof is in production and the pen has produced at a high level despite the injuries and flux. Stewart back and Alcala keeping up what he's been doing almost all season keeps this as a top pen. Varland might be a difference maker late in the season. If Sands falters, Winder has been looking pretty good at St Paul now that he's back. Staumont and Castillo offer hope for depth in the 5-7 innings with the solid Okert. A KEY might be Thielbar. He missed all of ST, was inconsistent when he came back, has looked much better until the big HR against the Yankees tonight. Can he get back on track? Funderburk has the STUFF, and will be back at some point. He's just got to me more consistent. The pen is THERE, with depth and options, if they can avoid any additional injuries. FINAL VERDICT: As long as the Twins can keep the STAFF as healthy as possible...understanding there will be some bumps and bruises and additional starts that will have to be made at some point, to mitigate IP if nothing else...the ONUS is on the LINEUP IMO. When you remove the first few weeks, Santana has been solid. IDK if he can keep it up, and Larnach and Miranda need to keep up what they've been doing, and AK needs to figure it out before Wallner comes up and replaces him. Castro is excellent, but the TEAM is better when he can move around. That means a return of Julien, and/or the eventual appearance of Lee with Farmer probably gone. And it also means a better option than Margot, who again I don't trust beyond a few games of production. The team is good. But as of today, the offense remains the weakest part of the team, though I think the potential to be better is very real.- 42 replies
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I'm still blinking when I look at the size of that contract. But he is amazing. And IMO, he's the best WR in the league. Still doesn't handicap the Vikings next offseason as the cap will rise, and they have so much dead cap $ coming off the books. The draft is going to be short, but the team is pretty young overall, and a couple good FA signings for need help offset the short draft. Naturally, it will help if the first 3 draft classes can take steps forward. 2022 isn't looking all that great, but there's still time for a couple kids to step up and make it solid. Interesting side note, it's nice to have Risner back in the fold for a veteran presence, leadership, and solid play. But his deal is only for around $1.4M with another $1M in roster and games started bonuses. He's actually signed for less than Brandel. So depth is better, but we might be looking at a legitimate competition at the guard spots. Of further note, Risner supposedly worked out some at Center for scouts. I know Brandel worked some at Center in previous offseason camps, but has never played there in any games, preseason or otherwise. Just...interesting. Are the Vikings done now? Might Akers get brought back on the cheap as a 3rd RB option since he's supposedly healthy? Do they call Renfro for a WR 3 option? Or are they trusting what's on hand?
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I could be talked in to this. Miami is going to want bats back, and probably a quality arm to balance the loss of Luzardo. My guess is they want 25yo and younger with control and that would leave AK and Larnach out of the mix. I can see them interested in Wallner, Rosario, Keaschall, and Gonzalez with an arm like Raya or Morris as part of the deal, possibly Culpepper. I'm not sure who the Marlins have at 3B, so they might be interested in Miranda? I know this sounds wrong to many, and Luzardo has the potential to take another step and be very, very good. But the Twins rotation is not really an issue right now. And by this time next season we're talking about Festa, Headrick...who still might end up a very good pen lefty...Matthews and Morris and possibly Lewis...after a slow start this year...all at AAA and just waiting for opportunity. Luzardo would be a great get. But I'd say no to Jenkins or Rodriguez. And I have a really tough time including either of Lee or Julien. But Keaschall and Gonzalez are both in the Twins top 10-12. Wallner oozes potential as a big thumper with the standard BB/K mix you just kind of expect. Rosario offers big RH thump as well. We're not talking a collection of nobody's. Just not anyone in the top 5-7. I think that's a very fair place to be starting. Doesn't mean someone won't go bigger to get him though.
- 53 replies
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- jesus luzardo
- brooks lee
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I like this Twins team a lot. I don't think the position player side of things is where it's going to be...for the better...later in the year. And I don't want to sound like a depressed fan, but I really am just hoping for 1 win out of 3 before we go to Pittsburgh. IDK what to think about Thielbar. He was still good last season. He missed all of ST, and then was hit and miss when he came back. I thought recently he was looking more like his old self. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought his velocity was back up to 93-94 again? Is he toast or still trying to find a groove? He was solid his previous 4 games and the K's have still been there and the FIP is much lower than the ERA. Just too many hits and BB so far. Lee and Jenkins and Lewis back where they belong. Cory Lewis also back throwing again and Emma hopefully back in the field within the next couple of days. Things are starting to look better health wise across the system. Just need to get Stewart back.
- 110 replies
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- royce lewis
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Not sure I'm crazy about Jordan either. But then again, at 21, you're not usually getting a sure thing. More likely, you're looking to roll the dice and see if they come up 7. Culpepper as the Twins bonus pool pick is unexpected. I think they'll grab a true SS with one of their top 4 selections. But I've been thinking it would be one of the top HS SS with Correa still holding down the spot for the next 3 or 4 years.
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Twins Relievers Are Pitching Out of Their Minds
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I never understood so many having so much angst when the season began in regard to the Twins having "potentially" the best pen in MLB. The Twins tried to assemble the best pen they could, but they weren't the ones saying it. And when the pen blew a game or two here and there, they became easy fodder for pointed comments. And it's fine to have an opinion, or get frustrated when things don't go right, but as pointed out in the OP, by and large, the Twins pen has been very good this season. Hard to believe that when the season started the top 5 pen arms were Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Topa in just about everyone's mind. Three of that top 5 have spent at least a couple weeks on the IL, and Topa hasn't appeared the entire season, and might not. Alcala is throwing well, especially when used on a 1 inning basis. Okert has been solid. And at different times, we've gotten contributions from Sands, Castillo, Duarte, Staumont, and Funderburk. I'm probably forgetting someone. (I still think Funderburk's stuff plays, it's just harnessing his control more). There's been production, and results, and there's decent depth despite some injuries that have curtailed or eliminated seasons. I doubt Varland moves to the pen at this time due to rotation depth, but I can see him there come September, adding another high velocity and potentially dominate arm. I like what I've seen, I like what I'm seeing, and I think I'm going to continue liking what I see. -
Headrick got off to a great start this year before landing on the IL. My gut feeling still has him as a LH setup man eventually, but if he can come back healthy and ready to go by mid summer, he and Festa offer some good depth at AAA. Matthews and Morris are already at AA and doing well. Nowlin has electric stuff, though he might also end up in the pen if his control doesn't improve. Ohl had a great half a year ar AA last season, and after a slow start, has looked great again.Lewis has begun his rehab and will join Wichita soon. ALL of these guys could/should be at AAA to begin 2025 if not the end of this year. How's that look for a pipeline? And I haven't even mentioned Raya, or Canterino, (probably destined for the pen now), or Culpepper being OK and making up for lost time and at least finishing the season strong for Wichita. This also allows Varland to probably slide in to a prominent pen roll as another late inning power arm.
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Week in Review: Taking Control
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As of now, the ALC is no joke. It's really unfortunate the Twins are still having to claw their way back to the top after their awful start, but that's baseball. There's still 2/3 of a season left, and they can absolutely win this thing yet. Bullet points: 1] Alcala being used for only a single inning is something I've been screaming about all season. The fact that he's throwing harder now doesn't dismiss the fact that he was still doing well in the first inning of his often 2 inning stints. It's even more important that he's ready to go and being used right with Stewart out. 2] I was pleasantly surprised when the Twins signed Castillo for a pen flier. The guy was good to great for about 6 straight seasons before a bad 2023. Alcala sort of replaces Topa, and Castillo becomes sort of a replacement for Alcala? If he's back, or close to back, to his previous form for real, the 6th and 7th innings just got a lot better. 3] Staumont hasn't looked bad at all. Okert really has been, generally, pretty solid. The pen is better with Stewart, of course, but the depth is there, and I like Sands...slipping a little...going back to his role as the 8th man. 4] I agree Julien wasn't really the right choice to go down. He's shown more life the past week. I'm not saying a reset won't help, but I really wonder if Margot would be gone if he hadn't suddenly had the best week of his season? IMO, Margot is still the ONE GUY to be removed when the next tough decision takes place. A mediocre to average player who can PR some and be OK without power against LHP is nothing close to a difference maker. Unfortunately for Julien, with Lee still working his way back, Farmer as an INF depth piece is probably safe for now. 5] I'm glad Larnach, Miranda, and Kirilloff are staying, however. Despite being 25-27yo, these 3 are still relatively inexperienced at the ML level due to injuries. Miranda and Larnach are starting to become productive fixtures in the lineup. And AK is starting to show life the past couple of weeks. TODAY is important, but so is tomorrow. I like that the Twins are sticking with them as much as a I dislike Julien being sent down, even if it's temporary. 6] Winning 3 of 4 against KC was big, especially from an ALC perspective. But 2 of 3 against Houston, at home, might have been just as big. The Astros have been playing better as of late, and are dangerous. It's a great way to begin the road trip. Another 3 or 4 wins would be HUGE if the Twins could pull it off. 7] Ryan had a bad game against a dangerous team. It happens. Maybe it's the opposite curse we've been having on TD. Bash a guy, he gets hot. Write a post how great someone is, he has a bad game. Lol 8] Castro will be just fine as the primary 2B for the short term. But it limits the lineup and moves Rocco can make for the moment. And that's a concern of mine. Margot...here we are again...remains a limited player in usage and production despite his 1 week "hot streak". I know Farmer can play 2B well and let Castro move around some, but we just lost some flexibility that I'm really concerned about. 9] Paddack has been even better than I expected despite a couple ups and downs. IIRC, he's still only had one BAD start, a couple mediocre ones, and the rest have been solid to very good. He's a big, strong, tough, gamer of a pitcher! But he's still coming back from TJ. At some point, the Twins are going to have to look at a skip start here or there, not just the All Star break. Is it weird to hope for a double header at some point to call someone up and skip him? I do agree that Festa is an option, soon, as the next man up. I'm just hoping it won't be until the 2nd half. 10] Lastly...ROYCE! I don't think he'll give a damn that he's back playing in Yankee stadium. It might even give him some juice. But despite a flippant comment I made a couple days ago concerning him probably hitting a HR and a double and going 2-4 his first game back, we should all temper our hopes. DESPITE his Superman appearances and reputation and ability, it wouldn't shock me if he was ordinary initially. After all, he's still human, right? But DAMN it's nice to see him back! He just might be the best position player on the team, all due respect to Correa. Looong winded, that's my stuff. Go Twins! 6 more games before coming home again, and a chance to make a statement on this road trip!- 11 replies
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Should the Twins Consider Trading for Mason Miller?
DocBauer replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Relievers are a volatile sort generally speaking. Miller is only a rookie, no matter how good he's looked so far, who's thrown and "proven" himself for all of 26 innings this season. He's had an injury history including some forearm tightness and throws 100mph. Hey, I'm intrigued, and he's obviously got a lot of potential. But I'm not spending a lot for a reliever who's a rookie after 26 IP and an injury history. Do we already have a Miller type in Varland who might be in the pen come September, and might not ever leave? And then we have Stewart back at some point. Alcala is being used the right way. Add that to Duran and Jax and maybe, just maybe Canterino at some point. I'm only interested if acquiring him involves players outside our top 10.- 38 replies
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I've thought about this so long and hard the past couple of weeks it makes my brain cramp. But after a TON of thought and examination, the answer has become obvious, Margot needs to go, barring any sort of injury that changes the situation. 1] Despite a sudden 7-10 games where he's actually produced a little offense, he's still barely league average in OPS against LHP. He's so far down against RHP that it embarrasses ME. He's got little power, his speed has greatly diminished, and his once valued defense has become average at best. 2] The OF against LHP is obvious without Margot. Kepler in RF...having a surprising year against same side arms..Buxton in CF...and Castro in LF. This just isn't that hard. 2A] Don't talk to me about a Buxton inury. You can bring Martin back up...who's doing just fine after his demotion...OR, add Keirsey OR the often forgotten about Helman, raking after a slow start if you want a different and more versatile RH bat, to sub defensively. 3] Some have mentioned Farmer as a roster cut. So far, he's just not the same player he was in 2023. And ZERO disrespect to Margot as a person or teammate, but Farmer has team "credit" already built up. On top of that, the "next guy up" is either Lee or Anthony Prato. UNFORTUNATELY, one is still rehabbing, and one is having a surprisingly poor season at AAA so far. In a weird twist of fate, Helman is the "next man up" for the INF until Lee is ready. So Farmer is safe for now because he can play across the dirt effectively. 4] Julien is a TALENT. It's possible he knows the STIKE ZONE better than most umps. But he HAS to ADJUST. That means NOT just trusting what he thinks he knows, but adjusting his approach to look for something earlier in the zone. Larnach has made serious adjustments and keeps plugging along like a legitimate ML hitter. To send him down while adapting and productive would not only be a HUGE mistake...just look at the numbers...it might rob him of the confidence and approach he's built up now. Kirilloff started strong, went in to the tank, but has been coming out of his recent funk. His last 15 games mediocre, but his last 7 games are powerful and productive. A few decent games notwithstanding, Margot has NOT produced, and is NOT part of the future. He's the easy choice! Farmer is, unfortunately, living on borrowed time. I can easily see Lee up around July 1st, playing all over, giving breaks to players, and establishing himself for 2025 and beyond. So much angst about who goes only because we've bought in to the depth idea the FO has sold us? And I'll admit, I generally LOVE the idea of depth EVERYWHERE for the Twins, the Vikings, or my beloved Huskers. I get and enjoy the idea of depth for the Twins to make sure we have the best team we can have season to season. But best laid plans don't aways work the way you want them to and you need to adjust. Margot is gone. You've got options. Farmer is probably next at some point. Keep the guys doing well, and who might be part of the future. It's just not that hard!
- 58 replies
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- royce lewis
- manuel margot
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Just wanted to add a little to this example, and add a title more context to what I had written earlier. And while it's not my intention to pick on someone, I'm going to use Margot as an example because he works, and he's been part of the conversation. Margot's career quad slash is as follows; vs RHP .241/ .292/ .364/ .656 vs LHP .280/ .340/ .417/ .756 In 2024, league wide the average OPS is around .690-.695 last I heard. Based on that, the "career" Margot is more than acceptable with those splits as a high quality CF...which he was...with a little pop and some speed on the bases, and some double digit SB mixed in. That's not a star player. But it's a solid, all around player you can play in the field on a daily basis, lower in the order against RHP, higher in the order against LHP. The problem, in this example, is if player X...Margot in this example still...suddenly can't play even really good defense, has little power, and doesn't run particularly well any longer, and is ABYSMAL against same side pitching, and only about league average as a batter/OPS guy, what do you have? Well, that's a ballplayer, taking up a roster spot, who's barely average as a hitter...used roughly 25% of the time... with no discernable qualities to make any sort of difference for your team. Again, the issue ISN'T having a guy who's better on the short side of a platoon type of situation. It's having a guy who you just don't even want out on the field or in the lineup 75% of the time. And THAT'S where the FO idea of any platoon situation is a big mistake. IF Margot was the same player he was a couple years ago, IF Farmer was the same hitter he was in 2023, we probably aren't having this conversation. Vazquez is a unique situation due to experience, and his abilities as a catcher. Is this the fault of the FO? Maybe. We still have the budget restraints imposed to examine. But they bet on a pair of veterans and the gamble has come up snake eyes. Here's hoping they learn from this mistake. The only thing I might disagree with you, Brian, is a comment you made about the FO being reticent to make changes this late. And forgive me, I can't recall if it was in this OP, or the OP concerning who goes when Lewis comes back. Our FO is more than a bit stubborn, probably born from the disappointing and MASH version of the team that ended 2022. I get it. But they also saw what an influx of talent could bring to the team last season. I'd like to think they are smart enough, flexible enough, confidant enough to just realize the status quo is holding the lineup down and they WILL make changes.
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- kyle farmer
- manuel margot
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So I am a little bit confused as to whether we're talking actual platooning, or are we talking PH, or are we talking both? It feels to be we're talking both as the one often leads to the other. 1} In the first few months of 2023 the Twins were at the absolute bottom of the league in AVG and OPS from PH. For whatever reasons, they were amongst the best in the league from around July on. Was that the players getting better at it, more comfortable? Or was it simply the law of averages correting back? 2} I don't have a major issue with PH in certain situations. In the past, there were a couple of times when Rocco really jumped the gun early in games and short sided the Twins the remainder of the game. I really haven't seen much of that as of late. Now, in the first game of the Houston series Friday evening, Julien was pulled in an RBI situation as the Astros had a lefty on the mound with reverse splits. So Rocco brought in Margot, and the Astros immediately countered with a righty...anyone could see this coming a mile away...and Margot hit a weak grounder, if I remember correctly. And now Julien was out for the remainder of the game. IMO, that was a poor way to use a PH strategy. But let's talk platooning by itself. @Riverbrianhas really covered this at length now, and previously, so there's not much more to add. But: 1}It's a simply fact that generally speaking, LH hitters perform poorly against LHP. It's just a fact. Not all, but most. But it's the "not all" that is part of a larger issue. Until and unless someone gets the opportunity to face more, and see if they can adapt/learn to do so, you never know. Further, as was pointed out, a LH batter wouldn't have to be an All Star caliber hitter against same side arms to be valuable as a daily option, just not horrendous. Unless or until you have just seen enough of a player to just know it's never going to work, they should receive some opportunity to experience LHP and see what they might be capable of. 2} I have ZERO issue with the Twins philosophy of building their player roster and saying to themselves: "Hey, we need another OF here. And we could really use one that can play a good CF to help back up Buxton. Wouldn't it be great if he was a RH bat to help out against tough LHP?" Where I DO have a problem is when that player is signed ONLY because they can help against LHP. I don't mean to pick on Margot, but he's been close to average his whole career against LHP. Fine. But he's been pretty far below average against RHP. So a non great 25% usage short side platoon option to fill in a roster spot? How about a better hitter than him against RHP who can STILL beat up on LHP some? I understand we're talking about "better" player than Margot in this scenario, and maybe a more expensive one, but we're also talking about better value spent for the $. And what if that "better" player happens to be a rookie, or second year guy, etc? Then the $ affect goes out the window. While $6M for Farmer as a reserve INF is pretty high, if he was the same player he was in 2023...leadership, defense, decent bat...he's arguably worth that kind of money. When he's performing about as bad as any player in the league, the $6M is a bad investment. When we add in what Margot has been doing...or not doing...as well as a poor offensive "2nd" catcher, the whole platoon situation takes on a life of it's own. In short, signing, trading for, or promoting players who hit from the right side to complete the roster is NOT a bad idea to help offset the number of LH bats on the team, or to provide PH opportunities in games. What IS a bad idea is selecting those guys ONLY because they can be part of a short side platoon. How good of a ballplayer they are should be the primary consideration, NOT because they bat from a certain side.
- 41 replies
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- kyle farmer
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I'm sorry, but any translation issues aside, I'm trying to understand any sort of correlation between Lopez...a talented but troubled human being due to family matters...and Duran who had a bad game. I don't see any corelation between these two individuals. ONE has/is having ongoing personal, human, family issues and his career is going off the rails. Unfortunately. The OTHER is one of the top closers in all of MLB who is embraced by his teammates, and Fandom, STILL performing, even with a couple bad outcomes, which happen. The ONLY issue I can see with Duran is a pitch he threw got tattooed for a HR. Was that a bad call? Did he just throw a bad pitch? Crazy idea. Sometimes a called pitch, or a bad pitch, gets hammered. When a Twins batter hits a big XB hit or HR we celebrate. When it happens to Duran...and he regrets the pitch thrown...suddenly there's a controvery? He's STILL doing his job. He's healthy again. His mechanics are slightly out of whack, he's been pitching more out of a slide step, and he's STILL hit 101 and 102 as of late. But ONE bad pitch and a comment he supposedly didn't think that was the pitch he wanted to throw is some sort of controversy? Please! This is, sorry to say, an OP about nothing but a deadline to post SOMETHING.
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- jorge lopez
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All good points. Agree with you ALMOST completely. Develop, unfortunately, is not always linear. SOMETIMES, the game itself presents opportunities or necessities of development AT the ML level. It's not a prudent or organic way of doing things, but it happens. Arraez was thrown in to LF a few years ago, basically told to touch the wall, and then march in a determined number of steps to find his placement. UGH! Horrible! But they needed him in the lineup and it "kinda" worked on a very limited basis. His sudden transition to 1B was a lot better. Which makes more sense as he was always a dirt player previously. Miranda was, more or less, given the "Arraez" treatment by being tried at 1B in 2022...as was Sano to a degree previously, but I digress...and while the results weren't very good, I thought he got a little better as the season moved along. As an aside, I didn't think AK was that bad at 1B before his shoulder injury at the end of 2023. I guess what I'm saying is I agree that milb time at 1B would indeed be optimal for Miranda, maybe Kirilloff as well, to learn and hone necessary skills there. #not running over an INF chasing a foul ball...HELLO Sano...or straying TOO FAR off of 1B to try and make a play you should let the 2B make and not leave 1B covered. Unfortunately, stuff happens. And obvious changes happen. And you don't always have the luxury of having A meet B, when you're trying to keep the best players, the most productive players, on the ML roster while making transitions. I think we're speaking the same language here. There is optimal, and then there is the reality of "now what" in real time vs optimal. As someone else pointed out here, or in a different OP, even Mauer needed a little time to figure out 1B before he became a potential Gold Glove worthy 1B candidate. (Damnit, he SHOULD have won one, IMO). It's up to the coaching staff and the players, AK and Miranda, to follow the "Julien" way of doing things and just work your azz off in drills and prep to be able to be a solid 1B, if not a good one.
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What is Royce Lewis STILL doing in St. Paul!?!?!
DocBauer replied to bighat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Royce us an amazing talent, a potential MVP candidate one of these days, and arguably the best...or second best...player on the Twins. Knowing him, he's likely to go 2-4 in his first game back with a double and a HR. But the kid literally sat for about 7 weeks before getting in to any sort of game action. Im more than happy to wait another week to 10 days and have him for the rest of the season instead of rushing him back, have a relapse, and then hope we can get him back for August. But I'm also really confused about the Twins promoting slowly and letting prospects languish in the minors. At least under the current FO, who might that be? Now, some guys go to college, get drafted, and take a couple milb seasons to get prepared/experienced and might not hit MLB until they're 23-24-25 in some cases. But who have they held back??? Ryan was promoted almost immediately. Ober, post injuries, debuted at 25. Julien flew through the system. Miranda was up at 23. Wallner at 24. SWR is still only 23 and debuted, briefly, at 21. Jeffers came up at 23yo and basically skipped AAA. Lee WOULD have debuted in April at 23yo if his back hadn't flared up. And there's a bunch of 21-23yo players and pitchers at AAA and AA right now, including some just recently promotes up a level a full month plus before mid season. Just exactly who's been slow to be promoted???- 56 replies
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- royce lewis
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Generally agree. I can see a re-set for Julien. I'm just thinking he gets a little more time to get out of his funk. He may honestly have a better eye than any umpire, but at some point, he has to compensate and take a few more cuts, IMO. I don't want a butcher at 1B. I think defense at 1B is undervalued by many. But it's also an offense first position by nature, and probably the easiest spot to hide a mediocre glove. I'm worried about winning NOW, of course. But I always have an eye to toward the future as well. And Santana is not part of that future and he's been so up and down with the bat we really don't know what's left in the tank. Hard work can get Miranda and AK better at 1B. But don't they also have to actually play the spot to get better?
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Make it Official! Twins 7, Royals 6: Bats Back Paddack
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Only got to see the last 3 innings, but watching Correa stroke that triple made up for what I missed! The guy is a JOY to watch! Small bummer Paddack couldn't get that last out to get the win. Great way for Jeffers to break out of a bit of a slump! Alcala hitting a 100 and 1 inning again and he dominated. I think we're finally going to see him used the way he should be. Not going to pretend to know what's up with Duran. He's been working on some mechanical things, and has been using a slide step more. Couple days ago he was hitting 101 and 102 again. Still not really worried at this point. Crazy to me how pitchers can throw darts at 90+ mph 60 feet and have so much trouble throwing a ball to 1B. He made a UGLY throw to Santana for sure. Still, it looked like Santana probably should have snagged it. But it was a tough play. Duran makes a semi decent throw, that whole 9th inning probably looks different. So again, not really too worried right now. KC a much better team than they've been. I think the Twins are better. Taking 3 of 4 is still really good. Won't get back to the top of the standings in a day, or a series, just need to keep winning and chip away.- 38 replies
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- chris paddack
- ryan jeffers
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Once again, I didn't like or dislike the signing of Santana when it happened. I doubted he'd repeat his rebound, age 37 season, but the Twins DID enter the season with some questions about Miranda's and Kirilloff's respective shoulders. So some inexpensive, veteran insurance wasn't a bad idea. My issue was Santana as a primary, almost every day 1B despite being pretty bad against RHP, which you're going to face about 75% of the time. I've always thought he should be hit against LHP, be a defensive replacement, and a veteran PH. He's not part of the future, while Miranda and AK probably both are. Julien might also figure in some at 1B as well also. But in the interest of fairness, while Santana's overall season numbers are pretty poor, especially for an offensive position like 1B....208/.295/.360/.655, so much for the tough veteran out with power...he has been much, much better the past 30 games: .242/.330/.434/.764 quad slash line. However, to be continue to be fair, most of that damage was done end of April and first couple of weeks of May. For the past 15 games, his numbers are are even worse than his seasonal ones. So we aren't talking any sort of consistency, just a few good weeks so far. What can we expect going forward for the 37yo veteran? Hard to say. But he's done enough with the bat so far...despite the roller coaster...to earn some more rope to see what he's got. Healthy again, it looks like Miranda remains part of the future, as well as the present as he's actually been one of the team's top hitters. AK is also, potentially, still part of the future. Like Santana, he's been on a roller coaster of a season. But he's also 11 years younger, so he remains a hopeful part of the future as well. I DON'T believe it's time to call Santana cooked and send him packing. But I do think it might be time to start using the 37yo more as a part time 1B/PH/ and defensive replacement in order to help keep Miranda in the lineup, and possibly Kirilloff as well.
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Farmer is a real gamer and from all accounts a really good guy, teammate, and leader. And I appreciate everything he did last season. And I was initially happy he was brought back, even if the $ didn't make a lot of sense. And while 100 PA isn't a lot, we are at the 1/3 point of the season. Over his last 30 days he's hitting neen hitting .214 with an OB% of .290 and a SLG% of .321. That's just not remotely close to being good. And as stated, he's not even hitting LHP any longer. Can he still turn it around? Yes. A veteran like him can figure something out, have the law of averages/luck flip and he's the same...or close to it...as he was last season. And that's fine, I care about what happens from today onward, and not what's happened the first 2 months. But so far, we're just not seeing any uptick. Lee is going to need some time to get ramped up after missing so much time. He's also ot on the 40 man. And right now, all 3 spots he would play have a healthy starter. That works in Farmer's favor to get more time. But Farmer isn't part of the future and won't be back next season. Lee IS part of the future, can play the same positions, offers a much better bat, and can help rest Lewis, Correa, and Julien and play on an almost daily basis. Time is absolutely running out for Farmer. There HAS to come a time when you just have to say goodbye to someone not performing and not part of the future for someone else. But I believe Farmer probably has the month of June to see if he can figure it out.
- 47 replies
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- kyle farmer
- willi castro
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Nothing wrong with his arm that I know of, other than just not being strong enough for SS, which I believe he played his last season at Arizona State. Since he was drafted I've heard he had CF potential. I find that intriguing, but I'd like to know how he looks out there. Is it a legitimate option for him going forward? The bat and overall offensive profile might even play at 1B. AT 6' and around 195-200lbs he's not a huge target for a 1B, but not every 1B is 6' 2" plus. I'm a big fan of Julien, and remain a believer despite some bumps in the road this season. But I can see a future where Keaschall might be as good or better overall bat and base running threat and Julien is moved to 1B, or moved in a trade and Keaschall takes over. Not a knock on Julien at all, just confidence that Luke is going to be really good.
- 33 replies
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- luke keaschall
- spencer steer
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