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Everything posted by DocBauer
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I believe Kwesi has assembled a really good coaching staff. I think he's set the team up well financially after this season. I think he's done a lot of good so far. I also think, for whatever and various reasons, he completely blew the 2022 draft. (The trading down wasnt my issue, but many of the choices made). And make no mistake, that draft HURTS the current team, as well as having an affect on the future. But they did much better in 2023. And even with limited picks in 2024, they did well, with the tragic passing of young CB Jackson "messing" with ultimate success. UDFA are not just a random lottery. There is still scouting and recruitment involved, in addition to $ spent. Not quantifying UDFA of quality is like saying a late round draft surprise doesn't count as a win in the draft. With respect, any arguement that Cine MIGHT turn out to be a solid player in the future vs the Hit Man, or any other SAFETY kept is ridiculous as IF he was kept, he was AT BEST the 6th man. Keeping a 6th SAFETY for hope is not how you build a roster. For the most part, the final 53 man is about what I expected with a few surprises. I don't like letting Nwangwu go as the KR and 3rd RB. I THOUGHT we saw enough in preseason to believe he was actually looking like a real RB. But we don't see or know everything that takes place in scrimmages and practices. He's previously struggled as a receiver and pass blocker, and it's been reported he lacks natural instincts as a RB. My GUESS is, despite a good preseason, they still see him as a fast athlete, and not a true RB. Gaskins is a solid blocker, proven receiver, and ran well all preseason. It feels like bringing on Rypien instead of Hall is a knee jerk reaction to 2023 injuries. HOPEFULLY, Hall comes back to the PS. He's got the talent to be a quality backup QB once he learns to trust himself more. I saw REAL improvement this preseason. REALLY excited about Rodriguez, Taimani, and Redmond as reserves on the DL. They all flashes and showed potential. Now, the DL needs at least ONE difference maker next year, assuming Phillips comes back, and maybe two, but having a young trio with potential is much better than last season. I kept hearing Jones was on the bubble at OLB. But a few reports were saying he was having a great camp. IDK, but this staff hardly ever plays starters or top reserves in the preseason. So when I hear good things and a guy DOESN'T play, I assume good things. INTERESTING that we get to keep Murphy and develop him but didn't have to cut anyone right now to keep him. Also excited we get to keep Richter on the PS. I'm actually impressed how Kwesi has rebuilt the CB position on the fly due to injury and unfortunate death. The WR position looks really good! Surprisingly good. Rather shocked that UDFA Jones was just cut with recent additions. I'm betting he's back soon as things are still fluid. I'm still a bit perplexed by the OL, and that's not bad or good. Tackle looks great! Bradbury is OK/solid at CENTER...though I'm hoping for improvement in the near future. I have high hopes for Brandel at LG. But I'm confused at Ingram at RG. He's SLOWLY shown improvement. PFF dislikes him. But after watching all 3 preseason games and some isolated plays on different websites, I'm of the belief he might be advancing. DITTO for rookie Jurgens at CENTER and OG. I'm not sold on Feeney, but the staff seams to be. Risner is in reserve for now. And not only was I impressed by Robinson, I hear he ALMOST made the final roster. The OL might be my biggest concern entering 2024. I think they're 2 players short between making CENTER better, and ONE of the GUARD positions better than average. But there's enough talent/options available that we could see a surprise there. Generally speaking, I really like the construction of this team, despite questions about both lines, and the future at CB. NOT saying any of the 3 spots are BAD, but I question next level and the future of all 3. Brandel is what I think he might be, and Ingram takes a step forward this year, a difference maker at CENTER might give us a great OL soon. Three young players who show potential, keep Phillips, and add ONE really DL next year, the DL might be OK this year, and pretty damn good next. CB is going to be in flux with Evans hopefully improving, McGothern improving, Murphy back, and Blackmon coming back strong, but needing at least one good addition to this group in 2025. This team is NOT devoid of talent on either side of the ball. But there's still enough of a talent question mark and transition going on to think they could win only 6 games...to maybe win as many as 10. Between development of what they have, the FA room they'll have next offseason, and the few draft picks they have, they SHOULD have the ability to add a handful of key parts to begin the step forward to being a contender in the next few years. Of course, I haven't forgotten, have they GOT their future QB right?
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Echoing previous comments, Lee doesn't have to be a savior, and I doubt he will be. What he does is give another good defender in the INF and allows Castro to go back to being the super utility player he is. HOPEFULLY, with his shoulder sound again, he can be solid offensively again. But he doesn't have to carry the offense, just add to it. I agree that Farmer doesn't really belong any longer. But I can understand him still being on the roster for NOW when you reflect on the Twins being down both Lee AND Correa. It has nothing to do with $ at this point as he's been paid most of his contract already this year. It's just another solid glove and veteran bat who MIGHT give a hit here or there. He's a "for now" backup presence. But while I don't know that I see a DFA for him, I certain don't think he's on the post season roster with Lee and Correa both back.
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Correa back mid September is fine by me. Gives the last couple of weeks to shake off any rust and get ready for October. The whole plantar thing is a freak type of injury. From personal experience, it can often be caused by footwear. My guess is that's PROBABLY the issue something that has to be addresses, and from reports, he's trying different shoes now, and needs to re-visit the issue before next offseason as well. My guess, he needs better arch support. But last year it was his left foot. Problem seemed solve. Suddenly it happened to the right foot this year. It isn't necessarily chronic if they figure out what caused it. But after he was OK late in 2023, and the first half of this season, it's nothing that probably couldn't and shouldn't have been expected to appear again. Especially to the OTHER foot. Correa is a GAMER. If he could play at anything close to an acceptable level, he'd be out there. And this is simply not something the Giants or Mets could have forseen in 2 years ago. Lee will be back first. He helps stabilize the INF and allows Castro to move around and help the overall lineup construction. All is not lost, but Correa back in a couple/few weeks makes a real difference. -
I'm not expecting miracles this season. But I'm a little more optimistic about 2024 and the future than some. What blows my mind is, there's POTENTIALLY a chance that more UDFA are on the 53 man roster than draft choices from 2022-23. While I've never cared WHERE, or HOW, you acquire talent, that's pretty much inexcusable. Of course, the final roster isn't set, nor are we certain yet how some of those 1st two drafts ultimately turn out. Kwesi has done some really good things, IMO, including trying to get the payroll right. And I think he got the 2024 draft RIGHT. And again, some of the UDFA signings have been really good, along with a handful of practice squad players really stepping forward. But the 2022-23 drafts have to at least warm Kwesi's seat! DESPITE a couple bad drafts, I think this team might only be about 8 or 9 guys away from being REALLY GOOD. And that's a combination of starters and key backups. The biggest key for 2025 is McCarthy learning ad much as he can in film work and observation while getting ready for the various 2025 camps. I don't know how the final 53 is going to turn out with only the obvious candidates being cut so far...buuut... SAFETY is 7 deep if you want to give Cine another shot and you like the solid veteran McCain. I got that right didn't I? You don't keep 6 safeties, much less 7. But OUTSRANDING DEPTH! CORNERBACK is a massive FLUX area because you THOUGHT you had a stud young player in Blackmon, and then had the tragic loss of 4th round pick Jackson. But Gilmore and Griffen join Murphy. Evans, and maybe Moreau as depth. But McGothern has probably played himself on to the roster. Do they keep 6 CB? We might be OK for a season, but 3FA is scary for 2025. I think we might be surprised at ILB. I keep hearing we might only keep 3 considering how much nickel an dime packages are used and Asamoah might be gone. BUT, the OLB spot is so damn deep we might have trouble keeping everyone. I keep hearing Jones is on the bubble. Then I read he's had a great camp. Who to believe? Well, unless he's injured, they don't play the top players in preseason now. I'm guessing he's safe. Ward is a solid 4th-5th option. But Bo Richter has been a standout. UDFA Murphy might have been a STEAL, but has been hurt. Do they risk waiving him? Or do they use the 2nd IL option to keep him for a while before making a decision? Porter is a perfect PS option for now. How many teams could have this much talent, old and young, at this spit? Dl is the biggest ISSUE on this defense. Anyone want to argue? We gave ONE great player in Phillips. OBVIOUSLY, the team believes Bullard is good for ONE MORE year as a run first lineman with Tierney as the WILD CARD who can be good to great. LDR might just BE that X player steal. After that, it's a mystery. Redmond showed enough I want him on the PS. Taimani has really impressed. But do we need another run stuffing NT this year? He's a nice option for 2025 duty. Unless his presence allows Phillips to move around more. Dorsey has been mediocre at best. But do they give up on him after 1 season? Bet he makes the roster. But DL should be a top consideration in the offseason and draft next year, along with CB. On the offensive side of things, other than a YOUNG RB to take over for Jones, I'm not sure I see as many issues. We've got a couple really nice backups, but LONG TERM, we have a need. WR is STRONG with Nailor finally healthy and showing what he can do. Powell is very good in his role. Tristian Jackson has made himself in to legitimate NFL receiver. Sherfield is experienced and very solid. Jon3s and others look like solid development options. NO WAY you replace Hockensen. But Oliver and Mundt aren't bad options. Muse has teased since drafted. But it's starting to look like he might have become the athlete when drafted who's big enough, athletic enough, experienced enough, to make a mark now. He's got the talent to be productive and have a solid career. It's up to him. At the end of the day, QB play will determine 2024 for the Vikings. IMO, the defense will be good, but not "quite there" due to the DL. CB will be OK. The OLB spot will be good, and better in the future. But Phillips and a couple young players won't be enough to put the defense in the top 5. Top 10 probably. And that's great! Like the DL, there are questions regarding the OL. OT is NOT an issue. The starters are STUDS. Quessenberry is very solid. Rouse looks like a stud steal. While he might end up the PS. Jurgens has looked very solid to me. Robinson has looked as good or better. I can't decide if Ingam is better than some reports, or ready to be replaced. If you have your QB of the future, with talent around him available, you better be damn sure you get OL right. I believe Donaldson just might have the best year of his career. He's had one year, 2023. In a system, that was as well coached and flush with as much talent as the Vikings have right now. He's got arm talent. That's why he was such a high draft choice. I don't believe he's the future of the Vikings. Doesn't mean he can't have a good year and the Vikings can't have have a good year. But I think the talent on hand is pretty damn good. And it's looking better. It's getting ready for 2025. Doesn't mean we can't enjoy 2024. And we might surprise. I just think any doom and gloom should by put aside for some real potential to have a good and fun season where we might just compete
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Just to be clear, I have tremendous respect for Cleveland as an organization, and what they have done so far this year, even though I believe in my heart of hearts the Twins, overall, are the better club. Not sure I ever bought the "you can lose a division in April" until this season. Now, the year isn't over yet! But it's kinda crazy the Twins have bounced between the 1st and 2nd best record in MLB since that awful 7-13 start, or whatever the exact numbers were. I do think there is a regional NEGATIVE bias where we sometimes lament bad losses, giving games away, etc, when we examine our favorite team. Despite the payroll cutback, despite a rash of injuries, despite some bad losses that leave a bad taste in our mouth, the Twins are about 90% to reach the playoffs and still have a legitimate chance to win the ALC. Best record SINCE the bad start, or record overall, they are amongst the top 10 best win teams in MLB last time I looked. That's a reality, even if we want to lament woulda/coulda/shoulda scenarios. I absolutely believe in the LUCK issue we've been debating here. But "luck" is just a word to loosely describe what Cleveland has done thus far. If you want, how about we talk about regression to the "mean" instead? Barring a bizarre anomaly, if you flip a coin 100 times, you might get a run of either side, but in the end, you're going to end up pretty close to 50%. Statistics aren't just made up. While casinos and betting websites don't hit 100%...and yes, they try to manipulate betting lines to a degree...they use very advanced statistics in order to win over 50% of the time. And they always win in the long run. If ONE player ALWAYS performs consistently above or below BABIP in MLB, it's a trend for that player based on how they play the game, whatever it is they do. But when a TEAM has a BABIP...for example...over a period of time, it's either a BABIP that is going to naturally regress toward the norm at some point, OR, they will simply ride an anomaly that isn't supposed to happen for that length of time. Again, all due respect to Cleveland. And if you dislike the idea of "luck" one more time, just accept that there is a normal "mean" that real, logical statistics indicate "should be". BTW, "statistics" is not a 4 letter word. It's almost double in length first of all, LOL. But statistics have been all over baseball for decades! It's just grown and changed in measurement is all. Cleveland has been regressing lately. It's up to the Twins to continue trending upward. The season is coming around the 3rd bend and just entering the 4th, with the finish line in view dead ahead. The Guardians and Royals play 7 more games against one another, IIRC. And the Twins face Cleveland for 4 more games I believe. And there's a lot of other baseball in between. It's a shame our team started so damn slow and put themselves behind the 8 ball after 4 weeks. And it's a damn shame we BLEW about 3 or 4 games in the last 10 days that could have us tied, or in 1st place NOW. But it's also a damn shame if we can't recognize that we have a really good team as is right now. September should be really fun!
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Martin had been pretty hot lately for sure. Is that due to maturation or to more consistent playing time? But there's still a lot if room for improvement before we get carried away and believe he's coming close to his potential. I'm not down on him at all. I think there's real potential inside. But defensively, while I've seen some improvement, he's average at best anywhere you place him. He needs to be better than that, especially in CF. Offensively, he's probably never going to generate much pop/power. I think 10HR, eventually, would max him out. But he's got enough pop in his bat, I believe, to be a solid doubles hitter who sprints out a few triples as well. He's got contact and OB ability, but for most of this season he's been below or well below average as a hitter. I get he's a rookie feeling his way still. But he's POTENTIALLY a pretty big cog in next year's team as a LF/CF option from the right side. As we sit here today, the Twins need a better version of Margot in 2025. Martin has the ability to be that better version. I sure don't see the Twins signing anyone to take that role. And right now, older and non rostered Helman is the only other option on hand. Assuming Keaschal makes a full recovery...and there's no reason to believe he won't...he's probably a better, duplicate version of Martin with more power, and MAYBE having the ability to play a little 3B in addition to 2B/1B/LF/CF. But he hasn't reached AAA yet, so I doubt he's ready until mid 2025? I WANT the Twins to sign or trade for a "better version than Margot" RH OF to be a 4th OF option. I just don't see anything other than a rebound, inexpensive FA option with crossed fingers type. So Martin has an opportunity to be really important next year. Here's hoping we get that version.
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But I thought he was doing so much better and was so much happier away from the Nasty Man Rocco? LOL TOTAL tongue in cheek! UTMOST respect for Gray and his professionalism as well as his contributions for the Twins. Just couldn't bypass a small troll to a few haters. Forgive my humorous hijack. :)
- 44 replies
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- trevor larnach
- pablo lopez
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Had to work so I only got the 9th inning and the post game, plus the box score, and the write up here. I'll be watching the condensed version of the game later tonight. Just a few random points: 1] Pablo....YES PLEASE. Keep it going. 2] Call me crazy, but I thought we'd get to Gray tonight. 3] Due to many circumstances, including injury delays, prospects don't develop in a linear fashion. I'm recalling a recent TD OP regarding Larnach usually hitting 2nd in the lineup. Tonight is an example of why. He's now at .257/ .328/ .457/ .785 for his quad slash line. We can debate lineup construction when everyone is healthy, but the guy has really developed this season. He might not be...yet anyway...what we had hoped for, but he's doing well. And I think there's another level yet to reach. 4] Isn't Wallner just FUN? He's also getting better. 5] Despite seeming to alternate between hot and cold at the plate...though right now Jeffers is heating up again...offensively and defensively, do the Twins have the best catching duo in MLB? 6] No more injuries, the Twins need to nurse/work with/keep trusting Festa and Matthews in the rotation. While he might or might not turn in to an immediate pen stud, Varland moving to the pen soon gives them another power arm that's usually been proven to be very good for a couple of innings. Could a healthy Funderburk make a late season surge to displace Okert? Did what we saw of Winder in his last promotion mean he's ready to contribute on a regular basis? Any chance Paddack comes back like he did late in 2023 to add another good arm to the pen? If the rookies can just be solid and not hit a wall, might we end up with a good pen to end the season? 7] Lee is on rehab and might be back soon. Maybe I'm reading between the lines too much as an optimist, but it sounds like Buxton's hip is feeling better and he might be ready in a week? Correa has moved to sprinting, which is one of the final tests, as I understand his rehab. He's not quite right yet. But he is better. He's probably further away than Buxton. But at some point, Correa will be back, even at 80-90%...but we can cross fingers for more. Is it possible the Twins are 100% come mid September? 8] The Twins are the best team in a much improved and surprisingly competitive ALC, still suffering from their horrendous start to the season. No more injuries or rookies hitting a wall, I think the ALC can still be taken. I'm excited!
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- trevor larnach
- pablo lopez
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@Dman, agree on learnjng to pull the ball more. He hasnt been proper "challenged" to a certain degree since he hasn't had to repeat performances against teams and pitchers much yet. Again, he seems to be built pretty solidly, and appears to be pretty athletic. He reminds me a little bit of Martin, despite being shorter, primarily an INF, and LH. But like Martin it's not so much needing big HR power to be viable, it's keeping a good eye, good contact profile, but being able to pop the ball down the line and in the gaps. Thats the kind of power needed with his skillset, IMO.
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Did they dodge a bullet by not signing Maeda? Yes. Did they dodge a bullet by not signing Gray? Yes and no. With Ryan out, I'd rather have Gray in the rotation. But he's slipped a bit expertly and isn't getting younger. And he's still owed some good $ the next 2 years. While we certainly miss Ryan at the moment, having SWR in the rotation has been great, and will pay future benefits at a low cost. Further, Festa and Matthews are getting great experience at the moment. So I'm going to answer yes and no. The problem is a general inaccuracy in regard to the "savings" being re-invested on the team in any way. Completely false narrative unless we begin to see changes in 2025 and beyond. Just ONE proven, trustworthy pen arm and a better RH 4th OF with any "savings" could have really helped. Maybe another 3 to 5 wins at this point? So yes...and no...and a PLEASE.
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Which is why I mentioned I THOUGHT there was an opportunity to just keep Varland when Ryan went on the IL. Again, I could be wrong.
- 71 replies
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- louis varland
- jhoan duran
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Not trying to distract from the OP as I think there might be some NFL and NBA references to be made, but the Rangers from DC is different from the Twins move. Where do the Senators go bankrupt, not play, and then are bought and moved to MN? And even if they DID go bankrupt, even for a season, isn't that the franchise bought by Griffith?
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- walter johnson
- clark griffith
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Max Kepler: A Minnesota Twins Era Nearing Its End
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Read everything. Liked a couple of posts. Doesn't really matter because as a fan, I'm actually pretty emotional about Kepler. (Not that I haven't been about many past Twins) Since the day he was signed he grabbed my attention. Maybe it was my German background. Maybe it was a kid from Europe instead of Latin America. Maybe it was his parents story. I just fell in love with a kid/prospect that I had hopes for. Coming up through the system, I truly felt we were going to see multiple All Star appearances. He could run a bit, play defense, and had one of the sweetest LH swings I've ever seen. Over the years I've argued, "look at his background" compared to American HS kids. I've often stated "just wait and see when he really catches up". In 2019 I really thought we were finally seeing what Max could become. Just being honest, even as a fan, I was ready to move on in 2023 when he continued a downward spiral. When the 2nd half of 2023 happened, and he "opened" the possibility of K-ing more but hitting the "damn ball hard" I felt I FINALLY saw the Kepler bat I'd been waiting for for years. Now, he was always solid and generally productive, but never what I envisioned or believed. I actually thought he'd carry that over to 2024, on his Twins farewell journey, toward another ACL flag and playoff appearance. Alas, it really hasn't been a journey I thought I'd see. I will always remember how great he was in RF, and that's going to be hard to replace. And I'm going to remember more than a few walk off moments, including this season, that Kepler gave us. He's a quality young man, has been a quality Twin for years, and I'm hoping for a few more quality moments before 2024 is over. The PRACTICAL side of me sees not only finances and talent coming up, but talent already here. While Kepler is a quality defender, offensively, Larnach and Wallner have better OB% and SLG% as younger, cheaper players. Wallner moves well once he gets a couple steps under him...Larnach similar...and has a tremendous arm. Spending so much time in LF, it might take a while for either/both to understand RF in Target. I think we'll be OK overall, though we're going to lose some range vs arm ability. I'm just being practical, not emotional. Wallner in RF will be the more productive player overall. Based on ability, potential, and only slightly SSS that seems certain. None of this means I'm not still a fan of Kepler and his service to the Twins over many years. But like Polanco, there is a time for a team and player to move on. And I will wish Kepler the best of luck going forward as a fan, except when he faces the Twins. *cue the traditional RPR dislike and comment I will ignore. -
Got a lot to say here. SURPRISE! LOL. 1] Varland still has a CHANCE to be a good ML SP. He's OK-ish right now. Solid for 4-5 innings with a chance to be better. His offspeed stuff is probably the biggest issue. Bit it's OK to be a really good RP as well. Like Jax, why can't he work on honing his other offerings to make him a great RP instead of a mediocre SP? 2] I'm OK if the Twins move him to the pen ASAP. I think it's where he belongs, and he can thrive there, and only get better. Again, Jax as an example. But it's OK if they keep him as a SP option for a couple more weeks until we see if someone hits a wall. For all the talent and future possibilities of the kids in the rotation, it's a very real possibility SWR, Festa, or Matthews just hit a wall or get figured out. It's OK to give Varland a couple more weeks, and see what happens, and have him in reserve for those couple of weeks. 3] I KNOW this won't be popular, but if the Twins needed ANOTHER SP option, and Varland were in the pen tomorrow, I'd honestly rather give Dobnak a shot before anyone else. He's having a good season, and past performance and by his own admission, he's never been comfortable coming out of the pen. I hope ANOTHER starter isn't needed, but I'd rather see him than anyone else at AAA for the next month, if needed, again, Varland in the rotation. 4] I might be incorrect in how the timing worked, so forgive me. But wasn't there an opportunity when Ryan went to the IL that the Twins couldn't have kept Varland up along with Festa and Matthews? I swear there was a window with injury and double header where he could have stayed. If I'm correct, he could have stayed as a pen option who could piggyback anyone if they ran in to trouble, or, to throw 2-3 innings and lengthen the pen, thus keeping himself stretched out. Again, forgive me if I'm wrong, but am pretty sure that window was open. I'd keep Varland at AAA, for now, as @chpettit19 stated, until mid September if possible. I think he then moves to the pen, and he should be there going forward. Again, why can't he get even better ala Jax? I don't care if he's wild, he's got better stuff and a better future, I'd find a "tired arm" with Okert and bring Funderburk back when healthy. While wild, he has better stuff and can actually get RH batters out. IDK if what we saw of Winder is real or not, but I'd like to see if he can follow the "Sands" model and actually help. For the NOW, I'd like to see what Henriquez can do. His final line against the Padres Wednesday was skewed by a horrible play from Margot. Here's hoping Paddack can come back and provide another high velocity arm like he did last year. But for Varland, I'm HOPING he can remain stretched out "just in case" for another couple of weeks and then make a permanent transition to the pen.
- 71 replies
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- louis varland
- jhoan duran
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Payton Eeles has been getting quite a bit of ink over the past few months since his signing out of Independent Ball. And rightfully so as he's been an interesting surprise. And I thought a separate thread might be due, even though the season at AAA isn't done yet. He attended Coastal Carolina for college. While not a Blue Blood program, the school has built up a pretty respectable athletic department over the past several years. The baseball program won the CWS in 2016. I believe that was their first appearance there? For his career, Eeles produced a quad slash line of .381/ .445/ .489/ .934. He never had a great deal of power, but he did flash some speed in SB success. As one might expect from a college player, he moved around the dirt some, but he was primary at 2B...127 games...and SS...72 games. While he didn't produce power, and didn't have a 1.000+ OPS, his quad slash line was pretty impressive. So why wasn't he drafted? I can't speak about his defense, but he was trusted enough to see a fair amount of action at SS, so he must not have been a butcher. But when you don't have a lot of power, only stand 5' 5", and the draft is only 20 rounds, you tend be an afterthought when the draft comes along. There's been a lot of fair discussion as to how he ranks as a prospect in the Twins system when the dust settles and the smoke clears on the 2024 MILB season. After all, what he's doing hasn't been seen...at least in these parts...since Randy Dobnak skyrocketed straight to MLB as a pitcher from the Independent Leagues. Now, I'm not comparing the two...for goodness sake one is a pitcher and the other is an INF...I'm just saying his journey so far is rather unprecedented. So far, in 2024, at THREE different stops, he has a cumulative quad slash line of: .315/ .431/ .482/ .913. He's produced 27 XBH so far, including 7HR, which is only 3 short of his college career. That's not to say he's suddenly tapped in to power, but it's interesting to see what he's done in 270 AB between those three levels. He's also flashed some SB ability going 30-9 in attempts. Ironically, his worst numbers so far...while still good...came in his brief stay at A+. Despite where he came from, or the journey he's on, the question is: "Is he an actual prospect"? Well, his numbers are very impressive in regard to AVG/OB/and OPS, despite not being a real slugger. And he's only 24yo until November, and is producing well at AAA ball. IMO, despite such great success so far, and not old by any means, he's still "new" to pro ball. (No offense to the Independent Leagues). He doesn't have a track record of facing teams, and pitchers, at any level multiple times. There's got to be a reality check that holes in his swing/approach haven't really been diagnosed yet, yes? Further, despite some decent XBH numbers so far, and carrying a reported 180lbs on his 5' 5" frame, questions about actual pop/power must be asked. The days of simply being a "punch and judy" hitter are gone in MLB. What I find of great interest is the Twins decided to not only promote him very quickly, but they also chose to skip him past AA entirely after a rather brief time at Cedar Rapids. That tells me he's of interest, as well as being too advanced for anything AA or below. I see him as a good contact, high OB, scrappy hitter who can spray the ball with a few liners and rappers to keep the opposition honest. He should be able to steal a few bases. If he can play a solid 2B/LF and "emergency" SS he's got a chance. Goodness knows he's going to have a small strike zone to frustrate pitchers, LOL. But before we get too excited about a great story, let's remember he needs to show he can CONTINUE to perform with the bat when he stays at a level more than a month, and sees teams/pitchers more than once. Further, can he spray the ball and continue to show some XB ability? If not, ML pitchers and defenses will eat him up. Aldo, less we forget, some guys like Lee might be ahead of him at 2B, as well as Julien...who might end up playing some 1B...and Keaschall is right behind as an additional 2B option...though he might end up as a dangerous, utility player. I don't say any of that to be a downer on a kid that is a tremendous surprise! If he were drafted in 2022 and performing the way he is, and already at AAA, with ALMOST 2 years under his belt, he might already be a top 20 prospect. I'm only trying to take a realistic approach to a very different player, in a very different situation, who is performing particularly well, but is in a unique situation. What are your thoughts and opinions on Eeles going forward?
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Pretty much agree with the rankings as Seth has them. And I agree with placing Varland on that list as he's almost certainly going to be in the pen at some point. The question is when? I'd love to see it done now, but if anyone else falters or gets hurt in the rotation, you're turning to Dobnak as next man up probably. So I don't see Varland in the pen until the last wee or two of the season. But I do see it. While it's easy to blame ownership for the current situation, I can't bring myself to blame the FO for depth issues. Topa might have been a realnhelp, but out for the entirety of the season thus far. Duarte showed real promise...out for the season early. Moran...out for the season. Winder...slowed foe about half the year. Weiss...never got started until just recent who knows if he MIGHT have surprised. Stewart has barely thrown all season and is out until next ST. Staumont was a cheap flier that offered upside but didn't pan out despite some solid early results. Just a couple less injuries and the pen is in better shape. Even better if we could move Varland to the pen now and have Funderburk back instead of Okert. I was OK with Okert for most of the season ad a 2nd LH, but he's been pretty bad as of late. Funderburk hasn't exactly arrived yet, but he's got some great stuff. SSS for Henriquez and Winder, but I'm interested in them as my 7th and 8th arms. When Varland does make the move, we might be 5 deep. IF Paddack makes it back this season, he'll be in the pen. We're even deeper then. If Funderburk does makenit back, I'm wondering if they'd trust the stuff vs the not performing vet? I don't hate the potential post season pen. I am worried about how we finish the regular season with the current pen, however. I'd get Winder back up ASAP to see if his earlier glimpse is for real. And I'd like a good, fair look/opportunity for Henriquez as well. His numbers against the Padres in the 3rd game were skewed by a blown Margot play.
- 28 replies
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- griffin jax
- jhoan duran
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All due respect to the man and career that is Carlos Santana, he's defied father time for TWO rebound seasons now, and even if he's willing and wanting to come back for the same $5M ish deal in 2025, would the Twins be smart to bring him back at 39yo with fingers crossed he can beat the aging process for a THIRD season? I mean, anything is possible, but it's pretty doubtful. And I don't believe the Twins will take that gamble. That being said, you can almost ink in 11 guys for 13 spots next season, with Martin written in the erasable ink version. (Is that even still a thing?) 1B is the biggest, solo hole with Miranda able to play there, but who else right now? I have a lot of faith still that Julien's talent is going to win out and we're still going to see a really good producer there. But I don't want to go on to 2025 guaranteeing him a spot at this time. And while I'm begining to think Severino MIGHT turn out to be a solid ML 1B, the jury is certainly out still. I'm not saying Kirilloff is any kind of solution for 2025. But he's going to have an option left. And if they were willing to spend about a $M and a half for a questionable pen arm, they'd spend $1.5-2M for a soon to be 27yo LH OF/1B, who has produced when healthy, on the hope that 2025 might be the magical season where he finally IS healthy. Now, I think it's 50/50 he's traded to another club who thinks along the same lines, and moves their RH OF or pen arm they're disappointed in for a mutual "disappointment/bounceback" kind of deal. But 1B IS a question mark right now and it's not going to be dealt with via a big $ deal for anyone, so more options are better. A healthy AK can be part of the 1B equation, or the last man on the bench who can play 3 spots...if only average at best...and DH/PH. He can also be removed at any time without crippling the team financially in any way. It just makes sense for a $2M gamble for one more year...unless he's part of the previously mentioned "make good" trade scenario.
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Letting Hoffman go after flashing in ST when the other arms kept had options was a huge mistake. A mistake that made no sense then, and even less now. Blewitt is having a solid year for the Saints, and he may have room to get better, but he's not exactly dominating with more hits than IP. I'm more interest3d in seeing Henriquez sustaining good performance for a time. Possibly even Winder...when he's eligible to come up again...if his latest stretch is believeable. Nothing against Blewitt, but being good, not great, at AAA doesn't make him another Hoffman simply because they have a similar pitch mix, IMO.
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SWR was pretty good except for 1 pitch. A little disappointed the offense didn't add an additional run or two. I think I would have brought Alcala in instead of Sands who doesn't seem to do nearly as well with runners already on base. Santana has produced WAY above my thoughts and predictions and I've been pretty honest in that. My biggest concern for Saturday isn't who's starting, but Jax and Duran not available. But then again, Texas has gone to their pen a bunch as well. Next 2 games might be slugfests
- 41 replies
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- carlos santana
- simeon woods richardson
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His age is actually about right for AAA overall. He's a late bloomer with a solid set of skills who's never gotten his shot yet. Were he a RH hitter, he probably would have been up already. His biggest issue is being a LH hitter. At some point, you can have too many LH bats. Now, recently, that hasn't been an issue due to injuries and the such, to be fair. I don't know about his arm. I've read and heard reports that he's a legitimately good defensive CF. Margot is average at best these days. Martin is below that. He's made some good plays, but probably as many poor plays out there. Right or wrong, there IS a concern with the Twins...and a 13 man roster...of having enough RH bats to face LHP about 25-30% of the time. Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, Margot HAS produced WHEN facing LHP at a slightly better than league average. I doubt anyone has another GG caliber CF just sitting on the bench to replace someone like Buxton when he's out. You fill in best you can. Martin, unfortunately, hasn't produced much with the bat, more has he been particularly good defensively. And he's actually been worse against LHP, surprisingly. Castro is needed at SS right now due to a pair of injuries, so he can't really help in the OF. Keirsey might play very good defense in CF. But can he hit at the ML level? We don't know yet. Personally, the way the roster is right now, I think having both Margot and Martin handcuffs them and I also would have given Keirsey a shot. Especially since Martin simply hasn't taken a step forward in any area. Right now, the OF has 3 LH batters and a single RH one in Margot. But with Farmer back to help the INF, and Martin producing next to nothing, again, I'd just say "the hell with it, get Keirsey up here to play defense and hit 9th and let's see what happens". FWIW #1: The even older Helman is having another excellent AAA season, but keeps getting injured. FWIW #2: I'm not going to disparage the young Martin who might, and hopefully will, take a step forward next year...BUT...this only goes to show the absolute need for ONE, solid, well rounded, but affordable and not great RH OF needed for 2025. Think Margot, but better in CF, and not a disaster against RH pitching. Through trade or FA, that SHOULD be a priority for the FO. Think someone who can have a .680 OPS against RHP, but .720 against LHP with a little pop and the ability to play across the OF. Not a stud, not an All Star, just a good, solid OF who doesn't have to play daily, but who can if you need him to without embarrassing himself or be a black hole in the lineup.
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I'm going to disagree. And I like the kid! I was hoping they'd hold back, put him on the roster, and then put him on the IL so he might get some practice reps come December. I guess they don't feel he'll be ready enough to do that. And I'm pretty sure his IL designation now mean NO field time, even if he's a quick recovery. I think he's in a perfect situation in regard to coaching, system, and talent. And I know some guys come in and perform very well their rookie season. But I've just seen too many 1st round kids come in and get eaten up by the speed and talent of the game. And with all due respect to McCarthy and his skills, he wasn't in a system in college that was centered on the QB and the passing game. I think he can continue to learn a lot from the side, and get ready for 2025. It's not just learning the offense, it's learning the speed of the game and what NFL defenses bring. Missing actual practice time STINKS! But I believe he can continue to learn and get ready for next year.
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First of all, I don't believe Vazquez is going anywhere. In the grand scheme of things, his $10M isn't back breaking even for a team pinching pennies. There's also not an obvious replacement for him as a CATCHER, and what that implies, and they'd probably have to eat part of his deal in order to move him. They'd end up, probably, with negative value overall. Vazquez is an excellent catcher, Jeffers a solid one. Jeffers is the better bat, Vazquez is what he is, an OK enough bat...generally...to balance his defensive value. Let's look at what this duo has done to date, with about 40 games left. Jeffers has a .761 OPS despite highs and lows. That's not only above league average, it's WAY above average for the catcher position. Despite horrible lows and some recent highs, Vazquez has a .620 OPS. COMBINED, they have accounted for 22HR and 78 RBI. Yes, some of Jeffers production comes from some DH appearances. But not enough to completely mess with the overall numbers. If both simply keep producing at their current pace, with 40 games to go, they would project to 29HR and 103 RBI. That's AMAZING, even when you swipe away a couple HR and RBI from Jeffers spending some time at DH earlier in the first half. What the Twins are getting, even with some hot and cold streaks from both catchers, is solid defense and game calling overall, and production from the catcher spot that few teams can probably come close to. This works!
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"Don't click, don't click, don't click....DANG...I clicked!" Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack all locked in right now. Varland might just move to the pen full time and begin as a 2 inning option with the potential of being special. That STILL leaves Festa and Matthews as the 6th and 7th arms ready to go. Right behind them will be Morris, Lewis, and Culpepper not far behind. Maybe Nowlin as well? (He might jump to the pen and make it quickly as a result). Where does Disco fit? IF Paddack is moved to clear his rather small $7M deal, that $ could be better used for a better version of Margot...instead of just trusting enough improvement from Martin...and/or a solid BP from either side. Vazquez isn't going anywhere, and he shouldn't. This is just such an obvious NO it's hard to believe an OP was even written about the possibility. But sure, as others have said, if he wants a MILB deal to rehab and prove his worth with a split deal that offers him $4M if he makes it back, why not. But that's it.
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Agreed on Margot being used more than expected. But you have to expect and anticipate things like that happening, right? So that RH bat you have as a reserve should be acceptable against RH arms and Margot just isn't. Also agree with Castro as being one if those RH options. And he'll continue to play OF as well. Total agreement there. But I see him as a super utility player, the 10th man so to speak, and not just an OF. Right now, that job next year probably has Martin's name on it. But how much will he improve both with the bat and the glove between now and then is the question. I'd really like to see another option brought in. Not sure at this moment who that might be.
- 37 replies
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- manuel margot
- tommy pham
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