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DocBauer

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  1. Even if we leave Dobnak out of the equation...and he's still under contract...or decide to add another veteran depth option...which is usual for most teams/years...there's also still the possibilities of Headrick, Nowlin, and Raya. Now, I believe Headrick is going to the pen, hopefully adding a cutter or sweeper to his repertoire, and will have a real shot at the Twins pen next season. He's got the stuff to be a good addition there. I'm not certain if they are going to do the same with Nowlin at this point, or keep him in the rotation to begin 2025. Now, Raya got brought up for a single start, and it was excellent. And I think the training wheels are going to be off with a career high of IP and being fully healthy in 2024, but I expect him to BEGIN the season back at AA due to AAA depth if nothing else. The point being I agree that the depth at AAA is even deeper than what you mentioned! Good chance AA is also going to be almost as good, if not as good as, just younger and a step down. I think Paddack IS a 50-50% chance of being traded. There's a good chance Paddack, a full year and a half removed from his 2nd TJ surgery, will find more consistent velocity, and more consistency in general. And at only $7.5M, and better expectations ahead, I can see him being kept for depth. That means the top 5 starters, with SWR, are kept intact and ALL the young arms are kept in "reserve" to begin the season. That provides "loss prevention" in case someone is hurt, or sudden, unexpected regression for SWR. That makes some sense. HOWEVER, Paddack ONLY costing $7.5M and having positive progression, also means he might be of great interest to other teams as a trade target to fill up a rotation elsewhere. Potentially, he adds a prospect or two, OR, a solid bat or pen option to the Twins roster, and creates opportunity for one of the young arms to begin the season in the rotation. I disagree that moving ANY of the Twins young pitchers would be included in a move for another SP. Simple math says the Twins will be limited in payroll additions for 2025. So why would they trade a young, talented, controllable arm to another team for another young, controllable arm? It doesn't make sense. Because that's the only SP option the Twins would be adding. IF Paddack is moved, it's either to add someone to the Twins roster that fills another spot, OR, and salary dump to sign someone else to the roster, OR, a combination of both.
  2. I believe his COMPLETE ERA is a little higher because of a single fill in start for St Paul, but I agree he should have been included somewhere on the list. His BB were high at 4.5/9, but 7.2 H/9 and 10.4 K/9 were excellent. The depth of options at AAA and just a need to continue to polish himself probably puts him at AA to begin 2025. And while he's already 24yo...not exactly ancient...he lost 2 seasons due to recovery from surgery and covid. All the more reason to be excited about his potential? He should have been on the list somewhere.
  3. Some interesting points made. My $.05 worth: 1] PH is a fine tactic to have, and use. And having a couple "platoon" bats available at certain spots makes sense. BUT A) you can't fall as often in to the trap of PH too early in the game. That leaves you WITHOUT key bats you've already removed from the game in the late innings, and B) ALL of the 13 position players should be ABLE to solid ball and hit the ball with some degree of success, even against same side pitching. I fully recognize the long standing issues of LH bats performing, generally, much poorer against LH arms. It's just a fact. But it's silly to build your lineup in such a way that you have RH bats on your bench that are only successful against LH pitching and lousy against RH arms. You're OVER PLAYING your roster to 20-25% of that split. And at times...witness Margot this season...there are going to be times when your "lefty smashers" are going to be pressed in to greater than "expected" duty. You've cut off your nose to spite your face. Let's assume, for a moment, that someone like Keirsey could hit well enough at the ML level in 2025 to be a legitimate backup CF for Buxton, as well as the corner spots, and be a valuable PR as well. Not saying he's great, or a difference maker, just a solid, not embarrassing performer. But you still want/need another RH OF bat. Then sign or trade for a decent corner RH OF who can at least keep his OPS somewhere CLOSE to the league average. I mean, would a .670 OPS be that awful? Beats the hell out of something in the high .500's or low .600's. Nobody that's a stud, or a star, or an expensive, daily starter...just a good bat against LH pitching who's competent against RH pitching. 2] I fully embrace positional flexibility for the roster. But I think some get in an unnecessary tizzy about this approach. Baseball has ALWAYS embraced positional flexibility. Traditionally, they have been called a 4th OF and UTILITY player. But when you have a 13 man roster, you need to have such flexibility at times. Catchers are catchers. Correa is THE SS. Lewis plays 3B because Correa is at SS and he's just not a great SS any longer. But if Lewis can play 2B once in a while, and he should be able to do so, that's flexibility due to injuries, days off, or late game moves, etc. Miranda has improved his 3B defense, and shows some potential at 1B as well. Nobody is asking him to play 2B/SS/OF. Nobody is asking Wallner or Larnach to play CF, just both corner spots. Part of what makes Castro so valuable is not just because he's a good offensive player, but because he can help virtually everywhere. Seemingly forever, and for various reasons, MILB players usually play more than a single spot. That's so everyone can play, better prospects can be in the lineup daily even at different locations, and sometimes a top prospect might end up moving to a different spot at the ML level simply because they are blocked by a top player, and/or because there's opportunity elsewhere. Lee...once his bat comes around...is a prime example. He's a solid SS, but an even better 2B and 3B it appears. There's a lot of really good ML players past and present from other teams that have been successful playing more than a single spot. I embrace the Twins philosophy of positional flexibility. I think much too much has been made of this when injuries have created a couple of unintended scrambles. But I will admit to seeing a little too much in the way of general lapses in the field, or on the basepaths, that I think need to be cleaned up. Rookies and young players almost undoubtedly will make more mistakes than veteran players. But I'd like to see a little more emphasis placed on the general fundamentals. 3] I think the farm system is in great shape! It's filled with solid depth, some high ceiling players, and the best pitching depth I can remember in maybe decades. And some has already begun to arrive, or are getting really close. The FO, lead by Falvey/Levive has done a great job finding that young talent, and putting in a system to cater to each player's development. My only caveat being the previously mentioned wish for a little more work on basic fundamentals. 4] I think Falvey/Levine have generally done a good job recognizing under the radar talent and brining it in successfully. Castro is a great example. Taylor for 1 season was a good and smart move. They've added some solid relievers in their time, whether for 1yr, or more than that, such as Wisler or Stewart, as just a couple of examples. And they've also wiffed a couple of times such as letting Hoffman walk to the Phillies, and the solid-not great Coulombe being let go for nothing when he could have been useful. Financial restraints make this part of the job difficult, but necessary. They bottomed out on about 6 arms this past season. But if Duarte doesn't suddenly throw out his arm early, Topa doesn't injur his knee in ST, and Stewart had been available for 40-50 IP this year, the pen might have been a bit different this season. They've been OK to solid on low budget moves, but need to self scout a little better. That includes a handful of existing AAA position players that maybe should have gotten better and earlier shots at some point when injuries affected the ML club. 5] I'm giving the FO a partial pass for the past two deadlines. I don't think getting burned in 2022 has made them scared. I think being a mid market team, and with the changes made to the playoff format, there are fewer teams looking to trade the past couple of seasons, and the cost of acquiring deadline talent has gotten almost uncomfortably high. I think they do better in offseason moves, generally, and if the budget doesn't allow taking on salaries, that makes the prospect capital for a deadline deal that much more costly. So again, I give them a partial pass for the past two deadlines. Being just a little smarter...maybe 2 guys on bigger deals instead of 4 on lower deals for example...is a smarter way to go. Better internal scouting, again, can help build the team just a notch better/higher to begin the season. 6] The FO allowing a decent payroll, breaking even, being willing to take a loss of a few $M for a team that is part of the entertainment industry and would be something like a .05% of a multi $B family/corporation would sure make the FO job a lot easier. And while that is a different discussion, it's part of #7... 7] Does Falvey...and Levine...WANT to be part of the organization and stick around? I can see Levine being interested in being the #1 guy elsewhere. It's about growing in his career, and a new challenge, and putting his personal stamp on a team. But despite honestly deserved criticism of payroll cuts and blown telecast options and creating a poor association for fans, they hold well paying jobs that only 58 other men in the world hold. They're relatively well compensated, have had success, and seem to genuinely enjoy being part of the Twins, Minnesota, and their community. And there are certainly worse ownership groups and more stressful locations they could be working for and at. And other than some poor issues and recent developments already mentioned, I get the impression the FO is largely "hands off" in regard to ownership. I'd be surprised if Falvey wanted out at this time. I can understand if he would decide to, but I get the general impression he and his family are happy where they are. And I don't mean to say Levine is unhappy or wants out. He also might want to stay. I can just see him being tempted by an opportunity to sit in the #1 chair somewhere. I don't always agree with everything they do. But I like most of the job they've done since day #1. And no offense to the dedicated and cherished Terry Ryan, but they've done a great job bringing the Twins organization in to the 21st Century. I hope both stick around.
  4. Another thread, another day. I raise a toast to 2024 until mid August where I was having FUN as a fan. And I'm going to STOP there! ALWAYS an optimist, I'm HONESTLY excited about 2025 more than I was for this past season. I really and truly think the 2025 Twins are going to be better, and deeper, than 2024. ESPECIALLY if ownership doesn't do anything stupid! There's SO MUCH to like and SO MUCH hanging on the fringes to make a difference. HOPEFULLY, the pockets of ownership is loose enough to add even a little. And I'm stopping there. Wrong time and place.
  5. I like to think I'm pretty tempered in my thoughts/feelings/opinions. I was having a discussion with my dad last night about Rocco, as well as the FO. But sticking to Rocco primarily since that is the OP, I agree with what he does about 75-80% of the time. IMO, that makes him, generally, a good manager. I don't feel he's a great manager, but I think he's good. When he makes a pitching move I don't agree with, or uses an arm incorrectly, or PH too soon in a game, I state that I disagree. I also say what I feel when I disagree with the FO. I don't feel any manager is ever perfect. And I don't know, if a team wins 90 plus games, I think he's still going to be imperfect. So is my opinion that Rocco is good at what he does 75-80% of the time too low of an expectation? I don't know if there's a quantifiable answer to that question. I see the playoffs in 2019,2020 and 2023, along with the club FINALLY breaking the dark cloud of playoff futility last year as well. I also see recent Twins teams like 2022 where they were really good and winning and projected to reach the playoffs before they were fielding a AAA team to close the year and everything collapsed. Despite a surprising and completely frustrating and unexpected begining to this 2024 season, the Twins played at a level for 4 months they were one of the best overall teams in MLB. And Rocco has been the manager through all of this. I am fine if others don't agree with my 75-80% ratings scale. For that matter, I'm also OK if the FO/ownership decide to go a different direction and feel there's someone better for the job going forward. I don't feel, regardless of anyone's thoughts on Rocco, that a single game of a pen decision resulted in a 6 week collapse to end the season. I think it's fair to offer feelings and opinions on the past 6 weeks. But I also think it's fair to temper those feelings and opinions with previous successes under his watch, including 4 of the 6 months of this season. Only slightly off topic, I'm generally a fan/believer of the FO. But again, i don't always agree with every move they make, and I call that out. Just recent examples of ignoring players at AAA that MIGHT provide a shot in the arm when injuries and poor performance happen are seemingly ignored, I'm frustrated and say so. When Hoffman wasn't kept a couple seasons ago...and went on to be a staple of the Phillies pen...I said so. But overall, I think they've done a really good job. Doesn't mean I always agree with what they did or didn't do. And I WON'T take this discussion to the FO, which is where I think a lot of blame should be directed for lots of reasons, but there is a "trickle down affect" from their decisions that had an affect on the FO, and then down to Rocco and the coaching staff. And that, ultimately, has an affect on what Rocco and his staff have to work with. Despite a rash of injuries, and guys not playing anywhere close to 100%...same with most players on most teams...IMO, there was still enough talent on hand for this team only needed to play .500 ball, or even less, to make the playoffs and then see what happens. Such INEPITUDE over the past 5-6 weeks should have at least some blame placed on the players. They still have a job to do and simply haven't, especially on the offensive side, IMO. Again, I think Rocco is a good manager, but not saying he's great. I don't always agree with him, yet again. But arguements of "run more" don't make sense if you don't have guys who can run. Opinions of him pulling pitchers too early has been proven to be false when he has good, healthy arms. If you think he's PH too early, or used a RP wrong, or too soon, I agree at times! If you honestly feel Rocco isn't the guy to lead this team for the future, I respect your opinion. If you feel there is a manager out there can lead this team the way Rocco has, but be a better "in game" manager and take the Twins to another level, I respect your opinion. Once again, I like Rocco. But I'm OK if there is someone better. But I also just can't look at a single game, or even a couple examples, and reflect on past success, and just ride a bucking bronco of emotion to blame every disappointment on the manager alone as a single scapegoat. I don't think it's that easy. I'm as disappointed, angry, frustrated, and depressed by the collapse of this season as anyone. I mean, the carpet has been pulled out and I feel emotionally as if I took a tumble down the stairs. Ouch! (And I actually have a time or two in my life, LOL). IF. Rocco has lost this team...and we don't know if that's true...and if subtle comments made by the team captain, absently endorsed by Rocco, that some young players aren't yet "getting it" as reported...then maybe Rocco is part of that. But if it's injuries, young players, young players stretched, but Rocco STILL has the respect of the team, it certainly should change the perspective, right? While it's arguable how good of a manager you have in Rocco...do I need to reference my 75-80% agreement rate again?...is he REALLY a poor manager? Or have bad injuries and a collection of talented young players still adjusting to MLB but struggling and adapting part of the equation as to how good/bad of a job Rocco has done? Sorry @USAFChief, I just can't pick a single game to dismiss Rocco. And I just can't blame the last 5+ weeks vs 4 months of 6 no matter how good they WERE before this disappointing end to the season vs past success. I believe the FO BLEW everything from GOOD WILL to potential wins and FUTURE GOOD WILL for the team. As much as I endorse MOST of the FO, they weren't great/successful with some of their moves. But even if we disagree with some of what Rocco does, is he a manager to be replaced because of the collapse this year? Maybe. Is there a manager who could have done better? Maybe. Could a different manager make a difference going forward? Maybe. I just don't know that Rocco is or isn't the "bad guy" who's responsible for this collapse. If there's SOMEONE better to lead this team in to the future, I'm all in. But I'm still not certain that Rocco can't do a good job if he gets a little more support.
  6. I honestly can't recall the last time the Twins had an international signing arm that offered real promise. They've done well with a number of position players, but arms have been few and far between. They're really young and have a long way to go, but Bohorquez and Rodriguez look like a very interesting young duo.
  7. Pena on the list, once as a winner and now as an also ran is VERY much of interest. Mercedes was a kid i watched closely all year. I even mentioned him once or twice in the offseason as part of a potential trade package to bring in someone. Guess I'm glad he's still ours! The 24% K rate doesn't bother me at this point. Hitting Florida isn't easy, as history has often shown. If he can keep that %, or get a little better, with his tools he could vault up the prospect rankings. The BB and OB% outweighs the K% at this point, IMO. He keeps both about equal to this season, he's dangerous. But with all of these young kids, it's still a long way to MLB. But there's talent to get a little excited about for the future for sure.
  8. Feels like for the 2nd year in a row the FO is sending a couple good prospects to get some extra work and growth in, and the rest are all "meh" options to fill the roster. I know it's more than that, and teams seldom send top arms. Still, the roster feels little unexciting. I'll definitely be watching Bragg closely. I had almost forgotten about him. The other arms seem to be auditioning for 2025, improve and take a step forward, or possibly not be included. Obviously hope for the best for all of them. Rosario could use the extra work after missing so much time. Same for DeAndrade. Really hope this is an opportunity for Ross's bat to take a step up. He sure seems like an interesting prospect.
  9. On the surface, I honestly don't even know what to add considering how disappointing the past 5 weeks have been. Despite being able to watch all games since I'm not in a blackout area, I've barely watched. I just couldn't bring myself to do so. But I guess, ultimately, I do have some things to say. BUT, i have to start by saying recent horrendous play/results should also be put in to perspective when we HONESTLY examine the ENTIRE season. 1] The regular season is approximately 6 months. Injuries and almost inexplicable bad performance had the 2024 Twins off to a really bad start. The last month of the season, so far, has been just as horrible, with injuries and inexplicable bad performance. The 4 months in between, the Twins were one of the BEST teams in ALL of MLB! The injuries might be worse in the last month vs the first month, but the TEAM, OVERALL, has largely had a very good season. What's INEXPLICABLE to me is 2 months of horrible play. Despite what some believe to be easy blame marks for said blame, how do you explain the 4 months that were amongst the best in MLB with LARGELY the same team? 2] I didn't realize until I listened to the latest Gleeman and the Geek podcast, but over the past 5 weeks, if the Twins were ONLY 16-17...below .500...they would be a lock for the playoffs and tied with the Orioles for the same record! Being below .500 and STILL having that good or a record and a playoff lock only states just how bad things have been. 3] I don't feel Rocco has been great over the course of the season...the early season use of Alcala is still criminal on a ML front, IMO...but the rainout and an off day Monday should have changed at least SOME of the pen usage against Boston. But waiver wire, mediocre arm, coming in for a game that meant something for 2 innings makes ZERO sense. As Gleeman stated, why not keep Matthews in? He's more than capable of allowing a big HR, LOL. Why not just let Matthews get a shot to finish an inning? 4] Alcala, due to over use considering he's ONLY thrown about 20 IP the past 2 years, has tired. But he actually threw well in his last appearance. So with 2 days off due to the rainout and Monday off, could be rested enough to actually "be rested"? I'm OK with a healthy Heardrick getting a shot late in the season as I believe he's got a chance to be part of the pen going forward starting next season. But Henriquez has actually looked good, but we send HIM down because he was overused over the weekend but we kept Irvin over him with Monday a day off for rest? That's on the FO. 5] I'm going to borrow from @chpettit19 here, but when the offense is struggling this much, why are you holding on to guys who are struggling? If Julien...who I still have future hope for...isn't playable, then why not keep Keirsey as a potentially better option, who deserves a shot, and can AT LEAST, provide defense and base running ability and SB potential? HONESTLY, except for a 2-3 months of good production from Margot against LHP with bad defense, zero power, when he was ready to come off the IL, would it have been stupid to just stick with Helman and give him more opportunity than a couple of games? I can understand bringing Margot back, barely, but keeping a 14th position player struggling and not playing in Julien vs Keirsey is silly to me. 6] I UNDERSTAND sticking with veteran players getting a long leash at times. History will tell you sometimes that works out. Witness Kepler in 2023 and Farmer THIS YEAR suddenly overcoming a bad shoulder and helping win a couple games. But sometimes you have to trust your prospects and give them a shot. Not every prospect is 22-24 yo. Once in a while, a 30yo veteran is DONE. And once in a while a late 20yo can be a good, solid, quality depth piece. But NEVER trusting in YOUR SYSTEM and letting someone like that over a poor older veteran is a mistake. FO problem. 7] I OBJECT to "backing in" to the playoffs as some part of pushback. It's a LONG season. Teams rise and fall over 162 games. If the OVERALL season puts the Twins in the playoffs, then they did ENOUGH in 6 months to get there. The last 5 weeks be damned. Over 6+ months, they would have done enough, and endured enough, to reach it. Would we rather NOT go the playoffs? I'm angry as hell for ownership for what they've done, somewhat disappointed in the FO because of a few moves they've made and didn't make, and I'm not crazy about some Rocco moves here and there. But I'd rather have a team that has a SHOT vs no shot. Correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't both WS teams in the last WS WC teams? 8] HONESTLY, I like the Twins top 2 starters over most teams in the 1st round. If there's a #3 game, it's a mix of SWR and SOMEONE. I actually like a short season pen better than what we have now. But unless we can finish strong, Ober might be that 3rd starter. And losing game 2 is an issue. Problem remains the same...how can the ENTIRE position player/lineup ALL GO COLD at the same time? The LINEUP SUDDENLY WAKES UP, our team has a chance.
  10. If Keirsey gets a legitimate shot, and proves he can hit even deftly, I'd love to have him as a 4th OF and speed guy off the bench. Castro is fine as an occasional CF option, but I'd rather have a natural CF out there if/when Buxton is injured. If trade or FA could bring in a solid, corner OF RH bat that's not embarrassing against RHP, the OF could be deep and balanced.
  11. Pay attention if you will, I'm breaking this down in to different categories: DEVILS ADVOCATE: The Padres have EXPLODED their payroll for several years now to build their club, and have had a very deep system that they have constantly traded from. Good for them, they've maintained and developed enough talent to be able to do so thus far. While we DON'T have open books in regard to income, it's been strongly suggested they have exceeded output vs input to achieve this financially. This is largely attributed to an ill/dieing owner who wanted desperately to win a WS before passing. At some point, possibly soon, the Padres may be looking at a financial crisis as an organization and may deeply regret the vast amount of talent they have traded away. The entire collapse and conundrum of Bally/Diamond plays a major part in this. And the future is unknown. Twins ownership, while taking more than a couple missteps in how they've handled TV and streaming rights, alienating a large majority of their fandom, have at least recognized impending changes, and attempted...to some degree...to get "out front" of impending changes by NOT trading away a bulk of MILB talent, or take on salaries that could cripple the team's future. Surprisingly, while these two teams play in different leagues and different divisions...which is a fair point...since the current Twins FO took over late in 2016, the more frugal Twins have been in the playoffs 4 times through 2023 vs the Padres heading there only twice. BUILDING A BULLPEN: Like all teams, the Twins invest in OPPORTUNITIES for the pen in the offseason with low cost and low risk investments to see what might turn up. This has turned up 1 year options, and multi year contributors such as Wisler, Clippard, Coulombe, Thielbar, and Stewart, just to name a few. The one major miss/mistake in that time was Jeff Hoffman, now with the Phillies, who was let go after having a quality ST and has gone on to be an important piece with the Phillies. HUGE miss on that one. The Twins spent LITTLE in the offseason to fortify ANY part of the team, least of all the bullpen. What they did do was bring in a collection of arms to fill middle relief with the idea SOMEONE might step forward. To be fair, they already had Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar to form a base. While Stewart has had a career filled with injuries, his 2023 injury was a muscle strain. Did anyone really predict 15 poor IP? Despite getting long in the tooth, did anyone really expect Thielbar to just fall off a cliff after a really solid 2023? Funderburk really flashed potential last season before fighting control at times this year...though he's still got potential. Topa was never, IMO, a verified set up man. But after a really good 2023 with the Mariners, he coulda/shoulda been a solid 7th inning guy. And then an old knee inury pops up again. Sands has been a HUGE surprise! Duarte looked like a nice flier who was "tweaked" by the coaching staff to be a potentially solid addition. And then, of course, he blows his elbow out. I think a lot of people also forget Jovani Moran also blew his elbow out. Brent Headrick, tall LH arm with potential to help missed most of the season as well with injury. Is it POSSIBLE that Winder and his new 2 seamer and existing slider MIGHT have pulled a "Sands" and taken a step forward this season if he wasn't hurt AGAIN? If Ryan and Paddack hadn't BOTH got hurt, might the pen have been less stretched and better today as well? If Rocco...and I don't criticize him often, even if I don't always agree with him...had handled Alcala as a 1 IP to begin with, especially considering past injury issues and limited IP the past 2 seasons...his generaly outstanding season might still have him effective, and a reliable arm, instead of a tired one going through a bad stretch and back at AAA. CONCLUSION: The pen wasn't set up poorly despite no major additions initially. Injuries and the poor handling of Alcala, and WAY underestimated regression of Thielbar...Funderburk to a lesser degree...wiped out what was expected, including loss of depth. Having to suddenly compensate for injuries to the rotation can't be stressed enough. Even with all the injuries and depth issues and under performance, the pen was still league average or so until about early/mid August I'm NOT absolving the FO for some moves made and not made to begin the year. Crap happens, including injuries. But ON PAPER to begin the season with a pen of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Topa Funderburk, and whoever, I bet most all of us would have bet we had a good pen with some options and depth available. I don't think the FO was stupid, or blind, but were believing in what was on hand, and thought a couple arms added would help. Best laid plans, right? TRADE DEADLINE REALITY: I don't think the FO was SCARED to make a move or two. That's ridiculous. These are grown men who have revamped the entire system to bring about one of the top MILB systems in MLB. They've had the Twins in the playoffs in 4 of the 7 seasons they've been in charge, and probably 5 of 8 soon. SHOULD they have made an addition or two at the deadline besides the very pedestrian Richard's? ABSOLUTELY! Did they have enough MILB talent to afford a trade for someone like Puk with another year under contract? Yes! He should have been a priority. The cost would not have decimated the system in any way. And there were a handful of arms I was also interested in. But honestly, I might be envious of the arms the Padres brought in, but I'm NOT envious of what they gave up. When our favorite team has been spiraling lately...making it hard to watch at times...I'm still reminded we HAVE talent and ability. I'm reminded that the offense just fell asleep all at once. I'm reminded the Twins are now throwing 3 rookies in the rotation. I'm reminded that in a short series with Lopez and Ober we have a chance, including a shortened pen that might be better than the pen we have right now, stretched out. But the offense needs to get it together. FINAL CONCLUSION: The Twins have been hard to watch the past few weeks. The pen has been part of that. But so has the offense. But itts also been hard, while interesting, to see a couple top SP prospects get their feet wet for the future. Ownership SHOULD have allowed an addition at the deadline. Considering the prospect capital cost of some of the trades, I can see a reluctance of the FO, not ownership. I think the FO should have jumped on Puk, a perfect fit, even if hurt a little bit. I'm NOT an optimist to remind everyone that the Twins were one of the best teams in MLB from about mid April to mid/late August. We even had a real shot to overtake Cleveland for the ALC crown. The Cleveland series was close and went the opposite way. And it STUNK to be so close! But barring an even greater collapse, our Twins are headed to the playoffs. I understand all of the recent frustration for a team that should be producing better than they have been. But right NOW, would you trade the likes of Rodriguez, Keaschall, Lewis, Morris, etc and all for a couple rentals?
  12. I haven't forgotten about either. But I'm not so sure either is headed to the rotation. Dobnak will probably be a swing man as the 6th starter, which is fine. The way they move players to the "development" lust and back again is just a way of keeping a deeper roster at their disposal. I tnink...and kind of hope...that Headrick is going to the pen. He's a big LH who has decent velocity that should uptick in the pen. Further, being a SP all this time, he might be able to hold his own against RH bats better than some. And he might be able to toss a pair of innings here and there instead of a single inning. He's going to be 27yo at the start of 2025 and lost all but a handful of appearances this season. And there is depth at AAA, and need and opportunity in the Twins pen. I think his ticket to MLB, and sticking, is in the Twins pen.
  13. A nice problem to have, right? I believe there's a small chance the Twins attempt to move Paddack, though if they have to eat even some of his $ I don't know if they'd do it. But I can see them trying to save some $ and put it elsewhere like a RH OF of decent quality, or at 1B, etc. But even if they don't over him, there's always the possibility of someone getting injured. Long way of saying the depth at St Paul might be so deep that even with Festa in the rotation, they might be crowded. Again, good problem to have. Excited that 2 of Raya's best starts have been at the end of the season. But I still have to predict he begins 2025 at AA again just because of the numbers, and because being cut loose for more IP might be an easier transition ar AA for a month or so? Just a gut feeling.
  14. I know you can move someone to 1B. Moreau moved there, Arraez moved there, even Sano moved there. As a matter of fact, elder statesman Santana moved there. But it's kind of weird we don't have much at 1B in the minors isn't it?
  15. I just don't understand the OP at all. Correa's plantar issues arose ONLY in 2023. I'm not aware of any other issues before then. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Then he was fine this season before the OTHER FOOT suddenly had issues. Despite his big $ contract with Nike, he has switched to a different shoe provider as somehow Nike has been unable to provide him a new shoe that feels comfortable. While it's always possible this could be an ongoing issue for Correa, it's also very possible he never suffers from it again with cleats that work better for his feet. (Been there, done that). Defensively, he's still an outstanding SS. Why would the Twins move him? And even if they did, it would have little to zero affect on additional issues of his plantar. If we want to debate the INF, then speculate where everyone should play if/when Lee is healthy and he's hitting like expected. THEN we have an INF discussion! Even if Lewis is good at 3B and gets his strong arm back to throwing strikes to 1B, could Lee just be a better 3B? If that's the case, then maybe Lewis moves. But what if Keaschall, for example, looks really good at 2B and his bat/speed continue to play up? Then maybe Lewis moves to 1B? All interesting things to consider of the next season or two with Lee, Keaschall, Julien, Culepper, and maybe even Eeles all part of the discussion. (Notice no 1B listed there). But until the day comes where Correa's defense actually slips beyond excellent/very good/good to average/below average, he's the #1 SS.
  16. Nice job of pitching and mixing things up by Lewis. Love his repertoire. But if the velocity readings are correct, his fastball was way down. Perhaps he's tired from the late start to his season, rehab and the such, and he's just running out of gas. AAA staff is STACKED for 2025! Nice to see Alcala respond with a good inning and hitting triple digits. This feels weird to say, but how can you not think of Eeles as a legitimate prospect at this point? He's not too old for AAA, has raked at every level, and does everything offensively except mash, but he's still got plenty of XB and occasional HR power. Lee may or may not need a little more time after an interrupted season. Julien needs a major bounce back. Keaschall, even fully recovered and 100%, probably needs at least a little AAA time. Could Eeles be a realistic option for some 2B in 2025? If Keirsey sticks around...and I hope he does...I think he's got a real shot at some time with the Twins. He takes Kepler's place on the roster as a LH reserve OF. That allows the Twins to replace Margot with a RH bat with solid offense that only has to play the corners. That's your 5 man OF with Castro also contributing as well.
  17. Varland's pure stuff is over multiple seasons as a 2 time MILB pitcher of the year award, and some quality ML appearances even if THIS season has been a weird mixed baggage year of quality and poor performance. His previous seasons for the Twins weren't awesome, but they were solid and showed potential. His brief time in the pen to close out 2023 showed real promise in that role. Deduno was interesting when he came to the Twins. And there was some hope he might harness his potential. But I have a hard time referencing someone from 2014, 3 years before the current staff took over, vs Varland and his potential today. Different players at different times with different staffs.
  18. Yes. But pure stuff? I'd bank on Varland as a fully adjusted pen arm in 2025 than I would Henriquez at this point.
  19. They do. And medical science keeps advancing, such as the relatively new braces for elbows in TJ surgeries. I'm just saying that for anyone, including athletes who do this for a living, I'm in favor of other methods that might have a black mark against them, that might not be "evil" in the proper context. For instance, I'd rather see athletes...and the public at large...be able to use something like marijuana or TCH supplements for pain vs opiods for pain. And on a limited basis, doctor controlled and monitored, I'm in favor of other options to promote actual rehab and HEALING. NOT for a competitive advantage, but for returned health.
  20. I was happy to see him back for one more season for a variety of reasons, even at his $. Had i known how bad the payroll crunch was actually going to be, I might have changed my mind. Still, I liked him back. And then he was just awful at the plate. The 2023 version of Farmer was worth having stick around. The version we got was worth a DFA months ago. The injury factor and sudden turnaround doesn't end up justifying his contract or presence, but we're way beyond that at this point. No, he can't maintain this hot streak through the rest of 2024, which includes probable playoff appearances. He's way above career numbers, so it's a silly question. BUT, that doesn't mean he can't be the "normal", solid hitter he was in 2023 and for a good part of his career. That still has value to finish the season even without another month of this hot streak he's currently on.
  21. When Henriquez was acquired, he was a slightly "smaller" version of Berrios. He was a SP with a good FB with some potentially solid secondary offerings. The thought was he might go to the pen eventually. As memory recalls, that conversion began in full last season. Unfortunately, he also had some injury setbacks, so he didn't have a really good year, except for a stretch or two that looked solid. Fast forward to this point late in 2024, I'm not surprised he's had success, albeit in a SSS. And he's got another 10 games or so this season to show he might be ready to contribute next year. Right now, he's not on the 8 man pen as I would see it in 2025. Shoe-in's for 2025: Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Varland, and Alcala (as a 1 IP). Probable: Topa with a healthy knee, and Funderburk. Topa only has been a middle man if healthy, not a setup man like he was in Seattle in 2023. Funderburk has the stuff to face both side batters and be at least solid. Possibles: Headrick, recovered and moved to the pen. Moran, coming back from TJ. Duarte, coming back from TJ. Winder, if 100% and ready to settle in to a middle man role. Nowlin, if the Twins decide that's his future NOW instead of later and get him converted and ready. Canterino IF the latest procedure finally allows him to throw 50 healthy innings of the short variety. Henriquez, especially if he stays solid to finish this season. So Henriquez is not on any sort of "probable" list for me. But a strong finish and strong ST puts him in line to be a part of 2025. Then it's up to him from there. Of course, there's going to be a couple fliers brought in that could provide depth at some point, but I doubt any big $ is spent on a pen arm. And with the arms listed above, maybe they really don't need to. But it's up to Henriquez to prove he's part of the equation. And again, he's got the opportunity to do so begining NOW.
  22. A few different thoughts here. 1] Our very own TD physical therapy expert Lucas Seehafer had some interesting comments a few months ago concerning soft tissue injuries. The one that stuck out to me was discussing players recovering from serious injuries such as knee surgery. And this could apply to Lewis and Buxton both as an example. It can take a year or so for the rest of the body to fully "recover" from the injury as it's been compensating through surgery recovery and compensating as a result. Of course, I'm paraphrasing somewhat. In other words, it's possible some of the soft tissue injuries Lewis has been dealing with, MAYBE the hip issue of Buxton, might somewhat take care of themselves and lessen somewhat going forward now that they will be over a year plus recovered from their knee surgeries. 2] The max effort velocity and muscle build up for power hitting isn't going anywhere, even if the tactics of speed and stolen bases is back up again. And I don't see any changes taking place in college or HS, or even lower in the amounts of games played. Personally, I really liked the 28 man MLB roster for the covid year of 2020. While MLB has callups from AAA when someone is hurt, most teams don't have the luxury of a AAA club across town. That's negated when the Twins are on the road, of course. HOWEVER you break down the ML roster, you almost always have 13 pitchers now and 13 position players. With 9 guys in the lineup, the player bench is only 4 players, 1 of them a catcher. That leaves only 3 position players available on any given day. I'd like to see the roster at 28 in order to provide a little more flexibility and rest for those guys who might just really need a day or two to get back vs playing short handed. I think it might help some with injury control and recovery, and help with the on the field product. 3] I know this will be controversial, especially because of the game being "cheated" in the past from rampant performance enhancing drugs, but IMO, in ALL SPORTS, I would be in favor of growth hormone or steroids being used during rehabilitation for serious injuries. We're talking grown men, professionals, earning massive amounts of $ in some cases, and once seriously injured, I'd be OK with limited usage of doctor prescribed and controlled drugs of this nature in order to help with healing. NOT improvement or enhancement of physical abilities, but as part of rehabilitation in order to heal fully. 4] I have no doubt that ML training staffs work really hard to make sure players are healthy, fit, warmed up and ready to go. And yet the injuries are on the rise. If you aren't going to be able to change the structure of the game, then you can try to at least affect and mitigate the rehab of players, and the recovery of minor injuries, and keep the product on the field. Just a collection of thoughts I have.
  23. WILL they bring him back? If he's in that $4-5M range they might. Good teammate, leader, and locker room guy. The defense is excellent. And there's no clear cut #1 option. But they might look to spend that $4-5M elsewhere. I'd say 40% chance he's back, IMO. SHOULD they bring him back? In 2020-21-22 his bat was pretty bad. Awful if you consider production from a premium offensive position. But a funny thing happened in 2023, his age 37 season. He suddenly didn't stink again. Now, a 101 OPS+ for a 1B and an OPS in the .740's doesn't exactly scream All Star, but he was solid. In a complete surprise to me, he remained a full time player this season and the Twins basically got the same player in 2024 that he was in 2023. He was a nice surprise. As of now, 10 of the 13 position player spots for 2025 are filled, if you accept a healthy Lee taking a spot. If you squint hard you can see Julien and Martin being leading candidates, but I'm not writing either in ink at this point. Unfortunately, nobody is a viable, experienced, 100% proven 1B. That means room for Santana. But even at a low salary, do they want to bet on a 39yo repeating what he did this season? And while $ probably won't allow it, shouldn't they aim for higher production? No. They shouldn't bring him back. They SHOULD aim higher. And if not, they should have a cheaper, younger option internally. But doubtful they spend $. And while Miranda might be a solid option, Julien's offense went in the tank, Kirilloff can't stay on the field, and there's nobody at AAA seemingly ready. I want better, or younger with potential. But I don't know if i see it right now. So maybe they should bring him back. But I don't want it to happen. Thank you Mr Santana, but we're going better, younger, or both. A guy can hope right?
  24. If this is a move designed to throw other arms for the next week or so and let him rest his arm a bit...a calculated risk to be sure...I can sort of get the move. Anything other than that is just a very poor handling of an asset like Alcala. But then again, they've done this constantly, as the OP points out. You should have one if your best 13 arms on your staff. The very fact Alcala has been healthy all season is a reason to celebrate. Instead, the Twins insisted on using him like a middle reliever despite barely throwing for 2 years. And now he's tiring? What a surprise. Terrible mismanagement of an excellent arm. One of your top 4-5. Come on guys! That's not how to properly run a pen. Use middle guys as middle guys and short, powerful arms in short, powerful later innings.
  25. If that's true, I have a hard time following the logic. Alcala has been struggling some lately to be sure. I might be wrong, but unless he's hurt, I'd say he's hitting a wall after throwing too many double innings earlier in the season when he was not only coming back from missing so much time due to injury, but has always seemed to look better as a 1 IP pen arm. It's not often I blast Rocco, but I never understood the way he was used early in this season. The guy was just coming in to his own a couple of years ago, and then barely pitches the next 2 seasons. He's got one of the best arms in the pen. But instead of using him the way he SHOULD have been used...again, 1 inning at a time...suddenly he's a long or middle man? Makes no sense at all! I'd rest him as much as I could over the next week or so, and like Varland, keep one/two of my most talented arms on hand. I do wonder though, if he's sent down, could he still be added to the playoff roster? Is there time to bring him back? If so, perhaps this is a respite for him. If not, big mistake in my opinion. Do we really want Henriquez in crunch time in the playoffs? Or do we want a semi-rested Alcala?
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