DocBauer

Additionally, while he's had an OK career, that's pretty much his career in a nutshell except for 2 amazing seasons isn't it? I mean, healthy, he's had a fine career. But he hasn't been worth $30M a year except for those two special years. And if he continues to have issues...or at least be average at best...he might just opt in for 2025 and the Twins ownership would have multiple coranaries were that to happen! LOL! IF the Twins WANTED to trade for an injured arm, they should call up the Rockies and ask about German Marquez. He'll be coming off TJ surgery in 2025, has some untapped potential still, and will only cost about $10M. That one would at least make SOME sense. Pineda was a smart signing on a rehab deal. Dyson and Mahle were traded for SEEMINGLY healthy. Dyson was hiding an injury and Mahle had a few issues, but NOTHING showed up in tests or imaging to say his elbow was giving out. The Twins...and every team I'd say...don't trade for injured pitchers. What the Twins DO at times is sign someone who is coming OFF injuries and might turn in to something. Again, Pineda, and Stewart in the pen. Just a ridiculous notion that probably should have been a Randball Stu comedy piece.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch the game at all due to work today. (Usually get to see at least part of the games). We had a great road trip, won all 3 series, and gained ground on Cleveland. So I DON'T want to sound like I'm being a downer, and you simply can't and won't win every game...but...it does appear we just gave away a couple games on the road trip and that just shouldn't happen as much as it seemed to this trip. Ryan is a hell of a pitcher, smart, and a good athlete. So in the world did he make so many fielding mistakes not in the game, but in ONE INNING? I'm sure it was just a blip, but I agree some general fielding practice for reminder sake might be in order. Sands certainly didn't lose the game for us, and he's been pretty solid most of the year, but I am confused that he was in the game instead of Staumont in the 7th. Staumont didn't pitch Saturday, Monday is an off day, and he's been largely very good. So why Sands? Can we finally just accept that Larnach has "figured it out" after some injuries and adjustments. He's having a very solid season. But he might also be the unluckiest Twins hitter. Even when he's "slumped" he's been hitting the ball very hard. A couple days ago...Arizona maybe?...he went hitless and every batted ball was over 100mph. He's got a .268 BABIP on the season which is CRAZY for how hard he hits the ball. Any sort of progression to the norm and he's poised for a big second half! I've said before and will say again, if 1 of Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner "gets it figured out" it's a win. Wallner is always going to K around 30%, but with decent BB numbers and tremendous power. We can nit pick some of his numbers at AAA right now, but he's basically been destroying AAA right now. If we get 2 of those LH OF "figuring it out" we are SET with dangerous production and depth. Now that Kirilloff's wrist is no longer an issue, IF he can get past his sore back and FINALLY avoid injuries and follow the Larnach path of "figuring it out" the Twins will actually have a WEALTH of quality/dangerous LF OF/1B bats that I dare to dream of. And that's not even including the eventual debut of Rodriguez and the possibly undervalued Keirsey looking for a shot. I digress and apologize. But if even ONE of Wallner and AK can establish themselves along with Larnach's development....WOW! All three might be a dream, but it's a dream I'd like to see happen. Lastly, I do think the DH rule has to be re-examined in today's game. Especially now that is ML wide. I'm OK with losing the DH if you PH...though that also should be looked at...but if an injury happens to a DH, I don't believe the team should lose the DH for the game. It just feels unfair and not right in today's game.

Nope.

Thank you. Bad memory. :)

A very logical, well thought out idea. Remember, replacing Kepler in this scenario is a combination of THREE LH bats if Lee, or Julien, comes up to man 2B. Then Castro is freed up for more LF and RF becomes Eallner, Larnach, or Keirsey getting his first shot. (Leaving AK out of the discussion because he's hurt eight now). How good do the Twins feel about making the 2025 Kepler replacement move NOW vs next year? But they like Kepler. They're in contention. They aren't going to upset the clubhouse or roster construction at this point. Additionally, I can't recall the last time I saw a contending team trade from their current roster to add to another portion of their roster. Contend while weakening a spot to strengthen another spot? Kepler would be moved for prospects and that doesn't help this year.

I have to break it down individually I think. 1] OVERALL: I thought this team was 88-94 wins as built. Despite the 7-13 start...which I NEVER SAW...and the 7 game game losing streak didn't help...they are currently on pace for 90-ish wins. They've been playing at about 100 win pace since something like May 1st or mid-May?? But how they've been making that happen has surprised me. 2] ROTATION: I never saw Lopez struggling this much so far. Take away about 3 starts, Ober has been as good as expected, and is ramping up lately. I never saw Varland blowing up! And while I had hope SWR would be ready to contribute mid season, I never saw him being this good, and getting better, this soon. Despite Hekyl and Jekyll performances, Paddack has surprised me with how good he's looked in about 75% of his games. He's been downright dominate in a few games, OK and WORKED through a couple games, and been TIRED in a few games. Like Maeda last year, I think a rest sets him up for a strong 2nd half. Right now, right or wrong, I'm just not worried about the rotation. 3] BULLPEN: I NEVER saw Duran having issues. I honestly didn't see Thielbar having issues either, despite age, based on 2023 and before. I thought he'd have at least one more good season in his arm. I think the pen has, largely, done the job. The whole "best pen in MLB" came from pundits, not from the Twins. Duran and Thielbar SHOULD have been just fine when healthy again following injuries. They haven't been. Is there something else going on? Were they just so messed up with missing so much time that they're still just trying to find themselves? Crap like this happens. Topa was actually a solid addition in trade and developed an elbow injury. Duarte was a FA flier who forced his way on to the roster and his elbow gave out. Stewart, again, has had an injury that needs rest. Topa is throwing again. There's hope there. Stewart is throwing again, there's hope there. I don't know that we have anything but HOPE that Thielbar will find himself again. MEANWHILE, Alcala is not only finding himself, but is actually being used properly. Staumont is still finding himself with a new mix healthy again and looking pretty solid. Okert had been solid, and Funderburk keeps teasing how good he might be. Sands is OK, and has "flipped" with Alcala FINALLY as a guy who can do 1 or 2 innings as needed. No injuries, Varland might just head to the pen in August for good. But injuries have really hurt the pen from Duran, to Thielbar, to Topa, to Stewart, and even a potential helping arm in Duarte. And yet, Stewart back at some point, Duran being even a little better. Varland to the pen, MAYBE Topa back at some point, Funderburk settling in, even without Thielbar coming back this pen has performed well overall. You can never, generally, regret adding a pen arm in a trade. And I think a LH arm MIGHT be a priority if Thielbar doesn't take a step forward, pending Okert or Funderburk stepping forward. But despite all the injuries, the pen has been pretty solid. So I guess I'm surprised a bit how solid the pen has been despite all the injuries. 4] OFFENSE: From May 1st the Twins have had one of the most productive offenses in MLB. Surprisingly, they've been dangerous as hell against LHP since June, I believe. Lewis is part of that equation, of course. But Buxton has suddenly learned how to hit again. Correa has been on FIRE. Larnach has been good. Miranda looks like the hitter we thought he might be. Castro is really good. Santana has SURPRISED! SUDDENLY the offense isn't a problem, similar to last year. BUT, there is STILL an opportunity to add another bat. But I honestly think an added bat may come from what we already have. I think somehow, some way, Lee, Julien, Wallner, is going to come up over the next few weeks to add to the offense and make a difference. I've been SURPRISED how good the offense has been with surprising regression from guys that I see as future mainstays, but progression from Miranda, Larnach. Buxton getting hot again, Santana trying to defy age, and Castro being even better than he was last year. But the offense could be even better with one more LH bat, IMO. That MIGHT be Lee at 2B. It MIGHT be Wallner in the OF. Not sure there's room for both. Wish there was.

Just want to say that while disappointed in both Cardenas and Cosetti this season, I think Cardenas has a good eye and a good approach, so I still have some hope there. AA is a big jump, of course, but Cosetti's bat looked SO GOOD last season that I'm not giving up on him yet either. Crossing fingers for both. Baez has really grabbed my attention when he was drafted because he's a really good athlete who played all over in college and wasn't a full time catcher until his last year. The bat looks promising. Similar to Jeffers, I like the idea of developing the catching skills for a bat first catcher, IF the basic skills are there to work with. That's also why I like the idea that JC has tossed out with the Twins grabbing someone like Ryan Campos past the first couple of rounds. Interesting about Williams that his bat has suddenly disappeared this season, but in an interview Seth did with the Saints play by play guy...sorry, I can't recall his name right now...he spoke about how hard Williams has worked on his defense to be a legit option behind the plate. I'm sure Camargo is ahead of him, but I have to wonder about any improvements he's made behind the dish, and what would happen if the bat suddenly came back again? Assuming no injuries happen, I'd be really happy if Camargo was added in September and allowed to actually PLAY over that month to see what he's got.

Probably accurate. I can only argue Farmer should be the LVP. Vazquez may be the worst hitter in the league, but Farmer really isn't much better. Despite a badly botched play in the Seattle opener, he's still useful...if not valuable...in his role as a catcher. At this point, Farmer is only a 2B against LHP and a bottom of the order bat. He's really a "break glass in case of emergency" option.

Solid start by Raya. Now he needs to be bumped to 70-75 pitches so he can go 5. Note to self: Quit saying nice things about any prospect because within days they will be hurt or have an awful game. Bad night for a lot of guys including Nowlin and Langenberg. Woof!

Vazquez is a very good and experienced defensive catcher. But all he had to do was snag a perfect throw and wait to tag the runner who would have been out by 10-15 feet. There's just no excuse. I thought Miranda made a nice play at 3B. He attempted a tag and then made a throw to 1st that was a little tough, but within Santana's ability to handle. I have a hard time passing out an error on that play. But the runner ran completely out if the basepath ON TO THE GRASS by a couple of feet to "avoid contact with the defender". I call BS on that. He should have been ruled out Tough game. Close game. I missed the extra innings for sleep purposes so I can't comment. But it shouldn't have gotten to extras. It should have ended 2-1 with the Twins winning in 9.

I wouldn't do anything until Lewis is healthy for a full season, and I might include the rest of this year. Secondly, considering the years he's still under control, an extension really wouldn't have to happen until after 2025 considering the Twins would still have 3 more years of control. Thirdly, any extension would really kick in financially about the time Buxton's deal is about to come to an end, yes? Fourth, any extension might only buy out 2 seasons of FA and he'd still be a FA at age 31-32. If he's healthy and productive to that point, history shows he's still got another good contract coming at that age for another 3-4 years. Meanwhile, he's already crossed the $200M mark in his career. If it happens, that's what I'd be looking for.

I think the only reason Morris has been overlooked is due to Festa, the great season Lewis had last season, and Matthews tremendous start to this season. Culpepper also had a very good 2023 as well. To his credit, Morris is performing even better this season than 2023, which was basically his first real year after being drafted. We can debate who to rank where, but right now, I'd have to go Festa, Matthews, and then Morris. One has made his ML debut, and the other two might still hit AAA before the year is done. Lewis and Culpepper got a bit of a late start, and maybe only because of that I might place them next, but it's pretty close. Lewis is now back at AA...where he was scheduled to begin the season...and Culpepper a step down for the moment. And right there with them would be LH Nowlin at AA. If Lewis and Nowlin don't reach AAA later this season, they'll be there in 2025. Culpepper should finish the season at AA. Two to watch: Pierson Ohl and Ty Langenberg. Ohl was so good in a half season in 2023 I thought he might be at AAA this year. He's a control pitcher with reportedly nice secondary stuff who saw a big rise in velocity in 2023. Unfortunately, he's been off to an inconsistent start this year. But if he settles down, don't sleep on him. Meanwhile, Langenberg is being almost ignored at Cedar Rapids. He was drafted last season in the 11th round. Other than a cursory 7 IP last year, 2024 is really his debut. And after a solid start at Ft Myers, he's already at Cedar Rapids. Keep your eye out for him the rest of the season. NOTE: I deliberately left out Soto due to youth, as well as Raya, not because of stuff or potential, but due to the unusual nature of his usage/development.

Benge would be the best pure college bat at 21 I'd think and I bet the Twins would jump on him. But with that bat and good defense, I don't see him falling that far barring a surprising run on prep players. Janek would be fine with me, but I really like Ryan Campos as well. Reminds me a little of a LH Jeffers, solid bat, needs defensive polish, and the Twins believe they can do that. Second or third round maybe?? Brecht scares the hell out of me. But we're talking a **** at a potentially elite arm at 21. That would be hard to pass up. Betting someone else feels the same way and he's not there. I just can't shake the idea that Caldwell is a perfect of quality/slot as well as a need. Do Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Winoker stick in CF? Maybe. But Caldwell seems to be a true CF with potentially excellent defense, and the kind of offensive skillset to drive opponents crazy for years. I keep leaning toward him at 21. Sanford with the comp pick? A pair of HS arms in the second? And then grab Campos in the 3rd? A lot of good looking prep arms through the first 60 picks or so and the Twins have the $ to play with some early numbers to make it happen. After that, a mix of a few college position players and college arms for the remaining 17 rounds?

How crazy is it to see Matthews throw 5 2/3 with 2 R allowed, a single walk, and 5 K's and feel "ho hum" about it? He and Morris and Festa are providing a lot of excitement! Best part is, they're not the only arms having good seasons. They're just at the top right now. I can't wait to see Lee at the ML level, but agree it's not as easy as just saying "cut Farmer and give him the job" on a daily basis. It doesn't hurt for him to get some more time at AAA at the plate, and time at 2B, with how much of the season he's missed. But it's only a matter of time. And then Castro goes back to every day but also everywhere as well. Don't know how Severino's career is going to end up. But what he's been doing this month, and even a solid May, shows that April was an aberration after a solid 2023. His June has been other worldly. HE obviously won't keep it up, but he's reminding us all there's some potential there. I don't believe he gets a shot until next season at some point. And right now he's behind a couple guys. But if he's at least decent at 1B and the bat continues to play, he's going to get an opportunity at some point. Seems he's been around forever, but he's not quite 25yo yet.

I had hopes he would make adjustments and 2023 would end up as a bad memory. But I certainly never see him being this good this soon. Like Festa, I was thinking he MIGHT be ready mid season. Bou am I glad to be wrong! @jmlease1 perfectly laid out his timeline, and it's been a virtual joke in how to handle a young prospect. But he sure has endured and overcome! His stuff looks nasty at times. But you can see how good he might be. And it looks like he's gaining confidence. He's a different kind of pitcher than the rest of the current staff...less of a flyball pitcher...but that's OK. Getting outs is what's important. It's OK if he's never a 10K per 9 guy. But keeping it around 8 still works. I don't care if he's a real ROY candidate. Lee or Rodriguez are better options next year, IMO. What I care about is him continuing to get better and finish the season strong.

Go grab Tyler Rogers AND Taylor Rogers. We get a RH and a LH arm to help fill out the pen. Come on now....you were all thinking the same thing, right? :)

Three really good innings from Festa, one bad inning, and then another solid inning to finish 5 and get a win in his ML debut. I'll take it all day long! You've got nerves, you're on the road, you have to sit for some long innings, and you still come out on top and are good for 4 out of 5 debut innings. Again, I'll take that. The Twins are a solid team that might actually be getting better. And I still don't think they're where they could be yet. Still a little too much inconsistency from a few arms. But they're on a 90+ win pace which makes the horrible start and "giving" away some games here and there all the more painful. But this is a good team and a fun team to watch. Imagine how much fun they might be the second half if they can ratchet up the consistency even a single notch?

Honeycut is so enticing. A legit, high quality CF with speed and power and a top 10-ish talent if he had a more proven HIT ability. But sometimes you roll the dice when you draft later in the 1st round like we are. Caldwell is the guy I really like. I can live without big power if he can hit and get OB as projected, fly across CF, and fly on the bases. It feels like the system is short on true CF types. And Caldwell is sort of that old school CF fly paper glove who drives the other team crazy on the basepaths. I see a system fit. I definitely could see one of the top HS SS go at 21 as well. Someone needs to succeed Correa a few years from now. Might be the perfect year to grab a top, athletic prep SS in the 1st and groom him. If there WERE some kind of pre-arranged under slot deal, I could easily see those savings going to a top HS arm...or a pair of them...and "outbid" a couple teams. The Twins do have one of the largest $ pools in the whole draft. I know it sounds crazy, but I can see a logical scenario where the Twins first 4 picks are all prep kids before they turn to college players/arms.

Yes it's too soon. But I've been doing the same thing in my head lately, lol. Not saying someone won't be signed on the cheap, or lost in rule 5, or just decide to move on, but there's a pretty good chance the 13 man position player roster and reserves/alternates are already in the system. 1B/PRIMARY DH: Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff 2B: Lee/Julien/Castro/Martin SS: Correa/Lee/Castro 3B: Lewis/Miranda/Lee/Castro LF: Larnach/Martin/Castro/Kirilloff CF: Buxton/Martin/Castro RF: Wallner/Larnach/Castro/Kirilloff C: Jeffers/Vazquez IN THE WINGS AT AAA: Camargo, Severino, Prato, Keaschall, Helman, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Rosario. (Sabato?) * Assuming health for everyone, including AK. **Deliberately not giving Castro a starting job simply because he's so good and so valuable in his super utility role ***Including 40 man and non 40 man options at AAA because that's pretty standard. I think that's about right, assuming no signings at this time. Potentially a pretty good looking lineup and depth options.

I object slightly to the pitching staff having "struggled". But we're probably talking semantics. I still trust Lopez to figure it out, Ryan has been great, Ober has been pretty consistent...though not quite as good as 2023 so far...and horrible against the Royals. SWR has not only "fixed" a spot in the rotation, but is getting better. Honestly, Paddack has been better than I expected, despite some ups and downs. I think the reset is needed with him coming back from TJ. Stewart hurt and Topa out for the whole season so far hurts. Thielbar has been a mess. Duran hasn't been his old self. And yet, the pen has been about average. I don't want average. But injuries have certainly affected the pen to be sure. It was my hope the Twins wouldn't need Festa until the 2nd half to just give him as much AAA time as possible to continue harnessing his stuff. I think he's pretty close to getting his 1st shot. And that brings us to Varland. I understand not giving up on him as a rotation arm just yet. He's got good stuff. The rotation depth isn't very good...not sure how many teams have great rotation depth. But I think he's moving to the pen come August. He's a classic "great arm, but not starter stuff" who could excel in the pen. I believe that's his future. I understood keeping Canterino in the rotation for as long as possible. But with TJ behind him, and great stuff, but with this latest shoulder injury, he reminds me a bit of Duran: electric stuff but an arm just not built for a starters workload. Once he's cleared to throw off a mound, and in games, it's time for him to be a 1 IP pen arm with great stuff. There's time to maybe have him ready for September, if not August, for such a role. A wildcard? I still have no idea what's going on with Headrick. But if he's healthy at any time in the next month, there's time for him to add a LH arm to the pen for the late season. No matter how great Matthews is doing right now, I just have a hard time believing he's going to hit AAA, or MLB, this season and make a difference. He's looking unbelievable. But there's a difference between being THIS GOOD, and ready for ML hitters.

They move guys around a lot in MILB so that everyone not only plays, but because they are still prospects. And when said prospects reach MLB, there might be opportunity to play a different position, or, be able to play multiple positions. Perfect example is Lee. He's a SS by experience. But if he can play 3B as well as SS, he's probably a really good option for 2B as well. How about Castro having the rare ability to play almost anywhere solidly. Isn't there value in that? Emmanuel Rodriguez is, so far, primarily a CF. What if his best option to be in the lineup in 2025 is in RF with Kepler gone? It would be wrong for him to play something else besides CF in MILB? Thirteen position players on a ML roster means guys need to be able to often be able to play more than 1 position, unless they are a STAR player generally locked in to one spot. That begins in MILB.

I won't hold his age against him as getting an offer to a major program or getting drafted after playing college ball isn't in his control. But Coastal Carolina is a quality school, so I'm surprised he wasn't at least a late selection due to his college numbers. Still, 24yo at A+ isn't young. But the Twins are already being fairly aggressive with him. I'd be willing to bet he gets a couple weeks minimum at.the end of the year at AA just to get his feet wet. That puts him at Wichita for 2025 and maybe a late season shot at some time in St Paul. That wouldn't be bad for someone around 25-26yo who went undrafted. Been impressed with what he's done and will be rooting for him. But with Julien, Lee, and Keaschall all as 2B options, he's going to have a pretty tough road ahead in the Twins system.

The stuff has always looked like it plays. But as already stated, it's the control and command that come and go. Not just Gane to game, but inning to inning. Twelve fewer hits than IP this year, but the K rate is down a little. But also, his BB per 9 is amongst the lowest in his MILB and seems to be trending down. A little more consistency, and he's a back end ML SP. He's a mid rotation starter if the change and curve can take a step up perhaps? Love him as a LH pen arm, as early as next season perhaps, if he never quite takes the next step fully.

All it takes is 1 HS arm that the Twins are in love with and there's your prep arm at 21. They did it with Petty. It just doesn't feel like their preferred MO, and it sounds like there are a lot of good HS arms through the 2nd round. Nothing against Culpepper, I just don't see the fit even though there is a recent precident for college INF early. Love the ideal of Caldwell to be our future CF and provide hit, speed, and defense. I wouldn't object at all on Brecht if he really slid that far. Control issues or not, his arm is dynamic. Potential contact issues notwithstanding, Honeycutt is tempting. Does he have the highest upside of any position player at that point in the draft? I'm saying position player at 21, and I can see it being a prep SS to help getting an eventual successor for Correa. I think a SS is one of the first 2 picks. Yes, I do think they will grab a HS arm...maybe 2...but it will be at 33 or one of the 2nd rounders.

I understand and appreciate the idea that you need 1 arm, hopefully 2, in your pen who can throw 2 innings and not just 1. But despite improvements and a hot start to the season, I NEVER understood Sands being used for 1 inning while Alcala was being stretched. Especially considering injury history and pure numbers that said Alcala was dominate in 1 inning stints. Sorry, but that's on Rocco. THANKFULLY, Alcala is FINALLY being used the way he should be. The KEY to Alcala is not his velocity, or his slider, but his change just being average. It started to have bite in 2021 I believe? Any sort of OK change takes him from a good reliever to a potentially really good one. Stewart changes the whole dynamic of the pen. But without him, Duran and Jax are clearly the top 2. And Duran can slide in to the #3 slot with Stewart out. Right NOW, Okert is OK as the #4. A rough outing the other day notwithstanding, Staumont is looking very good, with increased velocity, and I think is starting to look like a dependable option again. But to me, he's #5 right now because you need to slide the LH Okert in to a 7th-8th inning role. (He's not great, but he's solid). If you want to break it down to when guys SHOULD throw: 8/9: Duran and Jax 7/8: Alcala and Okert 6/7: Staumont and Funderburk 5/6: Sands and Thielbar. Obviously, it doesn't work quite this way. The Twins starters almost always go 5-6 innings. And day to day usage changes the pecking order. And with Stewart out, Alcala is a rung higher higher than he should be right now. But that doesn't mean he isn't good, potentially great, it just indicates how good Stewart is when healthy. I think we all have to remember that the "best bullpen in MLB" was a creation of pundits, and nothing the Twins ever stated. But despite injuries, the pen has largely been very good. They're even better with Stewart and SOMEONE from the LH side if Thielbar doesn't get his act together. That's why I say any trade ideas, IMO, a LHRP might be the 1st option to add. But even WITH Stewart, Alcala has shown what he is, and can be. And he should absolutely be in the top 4-5 BP arms at this point.