DocBauer

However, I believe Myers hits RH's better. He's also better defensively and it sure appears to be healthier than Garlick year to year.

I'm probably most upset because as this drug on, I had almost convinced myself the Twins had a real shot to keeping him. Shame on me! I knew he was gone the minute he signed last year. But I don't blame the Twins. Boegarts, Turner, and Correa are very similar players in talent, quality, and production. Correa just happens to be a couple years younger. The 10yrs and $285M the Twins offered is commensurate to what Boegarts and Turner received, and equal or greater AAV. And they even offered Correa full control over the deal to opt out at different times to pursue something different/better if he wanted. So how is the offer to Correa cheap or in no way serious on the Twins part??? I wouldn't doubt that if Boras came back to the Twins and said: "Look, the Giants are in for 10yrs and $300M, will you be willing to bump an extra $15M?" that the FO would jump at it. I mean, even for the Twins, an extra $1.5M per for 10yrs is do-able. But that's not what we're talking here. We're talking $350M!! The Giants can afford to play the years of service game and just eat $15-25M per for the last 4-6yrs as a sunk/lost cost. There's just no way the Twins, or any mid-market team, IMO, can just be willing to eat that kind of yearly dead $. Could the Twins have front loaded the deal more and bumped to...oh, I don't know...maybe $310-$315M? Yes, they could have, though it would have hurt and would have at least slightly affected payroll the first couple of years. But this whole deal isn't about the Twins not going a 6th year and another $25M to a FA pitcher. This was an extra $65M bump over 10years. And way more than what Boegarts and Turner got. It sinks. I would have liked him back for a number of reasons. I think the Twins, if given the chance, would have sweetened the deal a little bit. But the Giants offer and way of staggering it is just not something the Twins could do financially. And only a handful of franchises/markets could do so. I'm not crying cheap or weak on the Twins in this case.

I think the Twins are definitely out on Rodon if Correa signs. Considering "rumors" of 6-7yrs and $180-200M for Rodon, the Twins might be out even without Correa in the fold. The Twins DON'T need to sign some back end SP at this point, thankfully. My "hunch meter" says the FO likes their existing rotation and expect better health with a normal ST, and feel depth is finally here. And if they want to add, a trade is the best option as it won't be someone with a $20-30M per deal, hence why they've passed up other options. So far, as probably expected, bullpen arms are just sitting there. And there might be value in the "patience" mode the FO likes. But I'm interested in Eovaldi if he's sitting there in a couple of weeks. He's not great by any means, and his career numbers reflect that. But when healthy he's flashed. If he comes cheap, I'd be interested in adding him for what he CAN do when healthy and right. But other than cheap and looking for some kind of 1yr or 1+1 deal, I don't think I see a fit. I think the FO looks at the trade route to add, if they add at all.

Narvaez, despite a couple bad years, has a better career quad slash line and more power. His LH bat would be nice to have for balance sake. I would have been happy to have him. But the more I've read, heard, and thought about this I'm very pleased. Vazquez is still an average to slightly better than average bat for a catcher. So while he's still a #8-9 hitter, he's by no means bad at all. But what's way more important is his experience, leadership, defense, and clubhouse presence. Forgetting Correa for a moment, the Twins have $ to spend and need to spend it. And this was a serious need that needed to be addressed and was done so in a solid fashion. But they can't stop now. This team still needs a quality RH bat to be added, even with a possible Correa signing. Even more so if they don't. I understand calls for a SP and RP, and I get that. But when you look at the roster, a RH bat in the OF has been a glaring problem for years now. They need balance and depth and options. The various times of offensive futility in 2022 show that. They should, IMO, jump on someone like Wil Myers immediately for something, hopefully, around $10-12M for 2-3yrs. He fits the need very well. And you can't stop adding while waiting for Correa. Happy as can be with Vazquez. But don't stop adding now FO. You still have $ and need.

Sad isn't it? If the Twins have actually offered a $300M deal to Correa to play ball in a city/organization he wants to be in and it's still not enough for his family and his future generations of family. The numbers we spit out are obscure to the general populace. I still have hope it's enough to make it happen.

Ryan, with 20/20 hindsight and reports, never pushed the envelope. In fact, he commented he was never turned down for $, and seemed to take pride in the fact he never spent as much as he could have. And I have tremendous respect for TR, so I'm not throwing shade his way. I'm just saying as good as he was, as good of a job as he did, at least in his 1st turn as GM, the financial game within the game passed him by. Simply making a point and ABSOLUTELY NOT going to get in to some eternal debate about ownership spending. The current FO seems willing to push the envelope and spend. And when it didn't work out, the switched gears and spent a different way. And even when they went a different direction and it didn't work out...see the mentioned Lynn and Morrisson signings....even the pundits initially hailed the moves. Our current FO has made mistakes. And some moves haven't turned out. But they haven't been afraid to try things and push the previous envelope. But Ted suggests a change in MO that I've been on my own soapbox for a while now. It's OK, and even smart, to take a patient approach to things like FA and see what value drops in your lap. It may not always work out, but it does at times. Witness Cruz, Marwin, Correa, a few arms that worked, and some that should have. But you can't, even as a mid market team, ONLY play the waiting game! As smart and observent as we all may be as amateur GM's, there is still so much we don't know, and will never know, as to the information and machinations of heading a FO. But at times, things just appear so obvious that it's perfectly fine to call out the decision makers in place. As an example, it seems fair to look back at 2022 and feel the FO was so fixated on the Buxton extension...which turned out fair or cheap, a different debate...and they simply ignored a flush market of pitching that passed them by and they ended up with Bundy and Archer only. While there is ZERO guarantee signing a "better" arm would have lead to success, those combined salaries could have garnered ONE SP with potential vs a couple "hopeful" signings. Right now, they are so focused on Correa, the market is slipping away. Even if they don't want to add to the rotation with some of the ridiculous numbers being offered and agreed on...and I get it...they have seemingly ignored the rest of the roster yet again. You didn't want to sign Haniger for the OF due to potential vs injury risk? OK. BUT you're going to stick with Garlick as your RH OF? You signed a quality catcher that you needed. But even IF you sign Correa, why aren't you in someone like Myers to be that RH OF that's been needed for a couple years now? Despite waiting on Correa, you can't tell me the FO is so blinded by other needs that they are going to continue, again, to let opportunity slip through their hands. They just HAVE to know there is room to add Vazquez at catcher and another bat to make a complete team. And that's my biggest issue with the FO right now. Going for the "whale" is awesome! Being patient can bring great dividends, usually relief or bench options, but they need to be AGGRESSIVE early on what they need and want. GO FOR IT. Strike early if you can and THEN sit back and wait. Now, THIS offseason is different than previous ones, even more so than Buck last year. The elephant in the room is larger, and I get that. But you just can't sit around in a trophy room and wait for the next big GET. You HAVE to play around the edges to make sure you don't screw up.

Initially, this is not the move I saw. I thought Narvaez or Barnhart made sense as solid, veteran additions from the LH side considering previous MO. But I've never believed "handedness" was the most important factor in putting together a catching tandem. I will repeat my previous thoughts and echo those posted above me, this provides the staff with a quality, experienced catcher with an OK bat who also provides a mentor for Jeffers in the same way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Vazquez has caught a lot of great pitchers, has been on winning teams, has a pair of WS rings, and is reported as a good clubhouse guy. These are important factors over and above pure batting numbers. Jeffers is still only 25yo, had a little over 500 AB, and a ton of potential. He has the ability to learn from Vazquez, maybe relax a bit more, and grow further in to his role. "Rumors" were that Vazquez wanted to be guaranteed a #1 job. Well I don't like to place too much stock in to rumors, especially in this case. Even as the potential #1 right now, easy to see a 60/40 time share. I think he signed because it's a great offer on a team that has potential. Man, I really like this signing, even if it doesn't grab headlines.

Personally, I think they are a little light on the pen. A healthy Alcala and Thielbar should raise the floor some. But I think this also shows why one more really good, solid arm ro help the 7th-8th could go a long way. I think I'd have to say they are a little light on the rotation as well. Various exams and 2 mri's show Mahle's shoulder is sound. He says weird offseason, short ST, and then trying to throw too many innings early tired his arm. I'm going with that until I see otherwise. I can buy Ober at 90IP or less if hurt. But he was healthy in 2021 and I could see 120+ in 2023 if he remains healthy again. Just hard for me to hear how good Maeda feels, how good his control was at the end of the last year while throwing on the side, see his history, and then not see him more than 90 IP. Are they a tiny bit light on Buxton? I hope so. But all in all, I can't find any major disagreements here. I just think they're a little low here and there.

The Twins are being sincere in their efforts. Reading between tight lipped comments here and there, they've offered the 10yrs and are at or almost at $300M in their offer, while including opt outs. I really hope this works, for many reasons. But the longer it drags out, the more I feel the Twins are being played for leverage and someone, probably the Giants, are just going to say "hell with it" and go $330 and the Twins are done.

I never understood the 2020 draft. IIRC, despite being short, there were some decent college arms available that year and they just bypassed pitching alltogether with the exception of Raya. And he was he one guy I really liked in that draft. Sabato I could understand as he was young, could hit, could get OB, and showed tremendous power. I wasn't crazy about the pick, but I could understand it. Boy, he sure hasn't looked all that great so far. Soulaire, good athlete, some power potential to go along with some speed, uncertain what position he should play. I can see a ballplayer there if he can stay healthy and get the reps. I think Rosario has shown the most potential of the position players thus far, holding his own at a low age and displaying power and power potential. But Raya is the only one that really excites me at the moment.

I also think 7yrs is nuts. 6yrs might be too. And I really, really like Rodon. So do the Twins as they tried to land him twice last season. And I think he's a really good fit for the Twins as well. And I'm NOT in the group that thinks Rodon is a great injury risk. I mean, really, how many SP, if any, that you sign or trade for aren't at some sort of injury risk? I think Rodon is GOOD, even VERY GOOD, but $30M per for 6 or 7yrs gives me pause. I just don't know that history makes him a $30M per arm. That being said, if Correa is off the table, I'm not saying NO to Rodon. I'd be excited if he were added. And I know some of the signings this year are just NUTS, but when I look at signings like Darvish, Wheeler, Ray, and Gausman as similar arms the past few years, I just can't believe the kind of numbers being speculated right now. And history/philosophy says they won't go beyond 5yrs. I do think the Twins system is NOT depleted or "down" to any great deal. They are top and bottom heavy with talent, with a hole in the AA range. They have a really good chance to add to the system in the 2023 draft. But a trade for a SP with 2-3yrs of control MIGHT be the better route if they don't add a Bassitt or Eovoldi on a 3-4yr deal that isn't crazy. And I don't like moving Arraez or Polanco in part of a trade with a couple of top prospects, but it might be a better route than FA at this point. I don't have an easy answer that doesn't hurt to add a SP, and I'd love to add someone for quality depth and options. But I'm almost convinced the best lineup and depth and the best bullpen, with depth, and running with what they have in the rotation right now, with a few young arms ready/nearly ready, isn't the best option.

Love the emojis! That was pretty cool! But for giggles, thought I'd address the two points you aren't 100% sold on. 1] Not going to rehash Kepler's worth in keeping or move since it's been it's been beaten to death. But whether he's in RF or moved in favor of one of the young bats, I just think they have to aim higher than Garlick. Correa...still hoping/dreaming...Miranda, Buxton and even Farmer help the lineup against LHP. For that matter, Jeffers rakes against LHP. But for whatever reason, LHP has been a real bane for the Twins. "Better than Garlick" deepens the lineup and even offers a really good PH option with a mid-game pitching change. They just need more balance in the OF. 2] I like the base of our bullpen and it's potential an awful lot, especially if Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or pitcher X...maybe from rotation depth...can provide a legitimate 2-3 inning bridge when needed. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moran, and a healthy Alcala could/should be pretty damn good with a quality long man. And for the record, For the record, I still want Pagan moved if possible instead of trying him as a middle man). And there are a few arms at St Paul that might very well help at some point. But just like the rotation, I want to have the luxury of "too many" arms than not enough. How often does a team come out of ST with all their arms 100% healthy and good and ready to go? I want to hedge my bets, if I'm the Twins. I'm not even concerned about a RH or LH arm as there are good reasons for both. But if I'm trying to really compete for the Central and more, I'm going to EXPECT someone hurt, or not ready, or off to a bad start, and I really want that one additional arm to make sure my pen is as deep and good as it can be. Thanks for the response. Again, emojis were cool!

BRILLIANT!!

1} 10yrs and $315-$330M for Correa. It's for defense, the lineup, leadership, experience, and perception with fans and the rest of the league going forward. He makes a real difference, and not just on the field. 2} Sign Vasquez for defense and handling of the staff. If you can't get it done...and you really should...then pivot quickly to Narvaez before you lose him and have to settle for someone who brings lesser overall value to the team from farther down the FA list. 3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. He's not great, but he's good, and he's probably the best RH OF bat on the market. He'll play almost daily somewhere, really help against LH pitching, but doesn't break the bank. Plenty of room for him and Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner/Gordon. Also, this is where Kepler is moved for roster space and $8.5M more for the budget. 4} A starting pitcher listed #4? Well, OK, how about 3B? Why so low? Because we aren't getting Rodon with Correa already on board. We at least have some good arms on board, and I see the other 3 points as important or more so. What about Bassitt? I like the idea, even though I don't like the QO attached. (Though I can't recall right now how that affects us next draft with position and new 1st round positioning, etc.). But I'd prefer Bassitt for 3yrs instead of 4, and maybe just bump him up to around $21-22M to compensate. What about Eovaldi? Is a trade, even if it's tough to let go of a couple guys, the way to go? No doubt there are options, and AAV would be lower than a FA. Regardless of who and how good, they need someone as good or better than what they have now. I don't know for sure who that might be. But FA is drying up for anyone that fits that category. 5} If points 1-4 are filled, it's time to add at least one quality arm to the pen. I just don't know that payroll would allow for a pair. And I'm not 100% sure we need more than one. But whether it's a Hand or Rogers from the LH side or someone like Fulmer from the RH side of things, I think the pen looks really good with one more quality veteran who you can trust in the 7th-8th innings.

Long standing fan of Max here, would be fine to have him back for multiple reasons, but fully understand it being time to part ways. Love to see someone like Myers brought on board as a solid, veteran RH OF, move Max, and trust in Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Sooner or later you need to get the kids in the field and at the plate on a daily basis and run with them. And as someone pointed out, you also have Gordon in the mix from the port side as well. I just have no clue what his actual worth is in regard to trade value. I mean, he frees up a roster spot for one of the younger guys, and frees up another $8.5M I believe for payroll...(come on, get rid of Pagan for another $4M-ish)...but how good of a player does Kepler bring back? A decent RP? A decent AA caliber player? He might be better as part of a package, if the right match can be found.

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft. Always pick the very best player available. Period. But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

I was going to say it looks like the Twins or the Giants unless a mystery team jumps up. Looks like the Padres might be that mystery team. IF I'm Correa and it was the Twins or Giants, and the offers are the same or really close, I'm choosing the Twins for a variety of reasons. But if I'm him, I'd be looking at the Padres with real interest. The Twins initial offer WAS HIGH and REMAINS creative as it allows Correa opt out possibilities. But as these things always play out, initial offers are just that. Did the Turner signing set the market? I'm not so sure. The Philies basically are doing the whole "Bonilla" deal on the short term by paying him a "retirement" check after he's done in 7-9yrs. So despite the total $ involved, the AAV is lower. The Twins seem more focused on higher AAV but 9-10yrs and forget some retirement payout. And I think that's smart for them. I still come back to the proposal Nick laid out a week or so ago that included opt outs and a potential guaranteed $330M. Absolutely crazy $, but granting Correa the power to look again at the market in 4yrs after earning $160M at that point, should he wish to do so. I know the financial numbers just sound CRAZY, but if the Twins opening offer was in the $280-290M area, which I believe it was, the long game to reach a $330M deal is another $4M per year. IF the Giants or Padres offer something close to 10yrs and $330M, and the Twins find a balance between their initial offer and that $330M mark, say $315-320, with opt outs, it would have to fall in the Twins favor wouldn't it? He wants to stay, the $ is still guaranteed, and he would STILL have the opportunity to opt out after 4yrs and look for something more at 32yo. It's in the Twins court to offer the best deal. And I KNOW NOTHING about these ridiculous numbers being tossed around. NO CLUE what the Giants or Padres might throw out. But if the Twins were in the ridiculous $300-320-ish range and still offering opt outs, I would think Correa and Boras would jump at that.

Initially, I felt Narvaez was the best fit due to a solid LH bat and solid behind the plate. He and Jeffers would make a solid combination. He also would come fairly inexpensive. But I like the Vazquez move very much. He's a decent, solid hitter and has an excellent defensive reputation. I think he could bring a lot to the team as a whole, but especially behind the plate. And it doesn't hurt that he lends veteran experience to the still young Jeffers, much like Castro did with Garver a few years ago. At the end of the day, quality game calling and handling of the staff is still the most important aspect of a catcher. Vazquez does that. And that's more important than a LH/RH split situation. Now, make it happen. And then grab Leon, or someone similar, on a milb deal or split deal to be a potential 3rd catcher and work with the arms at AAA next season. St Paul could have a pretty good staff of mostly young arms and I'd sure like someone like Leon working with those arms. And it wouldn't hurt to have a "coach on the field and in the dugout" type to work with guys like Camargo behind the dish either.

I know there was an OP recently about offering up Arraez. But Seth brought it up again, so I just couldn't help but comment. Arraez is a bit of a unicorn in today's game. Defensively he's nothing but average at 2B and 3B. Still, you can win with that. And it's good he can cover those spots. I was generally impressed with his play at 1B and think he has a future there. Who ever decided that a 1B, or a DH for that matter, HAS to be a prolific power hitter? I've seen a lot of 1B over the years who were good with the glove, hit, made contact, got OB, and were more doubles hitters, and clutch hitters, but not power plants. The game has changed. Offensively, he does those things very, very well. And at 25yo, adding some muscle and just maturing as a hitter, we're starting to see him turn on the ball a little more. I think more and more with the changes in the game in regard to 3 outcomes, there is room for someone who can HIT, have a high OB and the ability to advance runners and innings, and be CLUTCH. And unlike "yesteryear", where there were defense first/only positions and traditional producers at others, ML baseball hasn't been that way for 30yrs now. Today, and for some time, offense comes from all over the field/lineup. But there remains room, especially now, for a "hitter". On the surface, it's massively hyperbolic to compare a 25yo Arraez, as a hitter, to the likes of Carew, Gwynn, and Boggs. But when you look at AVG, OB, clutch hitting, etc, he's really a young and comparable version to those greats at this point in his career. Guy could fall out of bed and hit .300 with a .380 OB%. He keeps working and training like he did last offseason and keep his knees/body healthy, he's a potential .340/400+ hitter. Add in 45-50 XBH and he's a difference maker to almost any lineup, regardless of where he plays. The Twins have him/that. I believe he has significant value, if moved, but the price of acquiring a top SP wouldn't be him alone. Just not enough positional value to get it done. But he MIGHT be a central point of such a deal. But how much more do you have to add? And then you have to detract his presence in the Twins lineup, at least in the short term. Lewis just needs to get 100%. Lee might be ready in a year...maybe sooner. Julien might be a slightly different sequel to Arrzez, though debatable if he's ready just yet. I see the value in a trade of Arraez. I would think other teams see just how good he is and what he offers their team/lineup. But I know what he brings to the Twins and I would only move him as part of a deal if it brought a difference maker with 2-3yrs of team control.

Now, it might be standard practice to sit down with 3 of the top FA on the market and the #1 agent in the business for a cordial supper, but I find this to be encouraging that the Twins are very sincere about their efforts. Do I think the Twins initial multiple offers gets the deal done? No way. But it wasn't some lowball offer either. Do I think the OP Nick presented WOULD get the deal done? IMO, yes. 10yrs and $330M with a pair of player opt outs? I just don't see how Correa and Boras could turn that down. Soo much guaranteed $ and still giving the player control over his future. The only way that deal isn't perfect for Correa is if someone goes nuts and offers $350-$360. At that point, I'd be out too. There's just a point where it doesn't make sense.

I think the Twins got really lucky to grab Lee. I really don't want to move him. I haven't been the biggest fan of SWR, despite his previous prospect rankings. He started to make me a believer in 2022. I think he's got a chance to be good. How good? IDK. Nothing about his stuff totally "wow's" me so I'm not sure what to expect going forward. But he's so young, I can't help wonder how good he might be 2-3yrs from now. Is it worth the risk to move him to someone else? It would have to be someone GOOD with at least 2yrs of control. I absolutely love Julien. I think he's a faster, more powerful version of Arraez with less AVG but similar eye. I think his defense will settle down now that's spending more time at 2B instead of moving around. But, I could see some 1B or even LF in his future, but 2B seems to be his best spot. I don't know that Polanco is going away any time soon, but he could be a replacement for him. But then again, IF the Twins sign Correa, or Boegarts, Lewis and Lee become likely fits at 2B and 3B, and Julien becomes expendable. [Miranda going back to 1B/3B/DH as he was in 2022]. So I guess Julien is the one guy I see as "expendable" out of this group.

Hendricks has been great, and might be great a couple more years. But 34yo next season, 35 the year after for a combined $30M? I'd pass unless, as LewFord stated, he was a final piece. And while I like the framework and potential of the Twins, I don't think a closer, even a great one, moves the needle. That $15M could bring 2 nice bullpen additions to what's on hand and maybe even have a couple $M left over.

I'm a little disappointed in this. While I really think RH OF bat is way more important, I kinda liked Bell as a DH and 1B share with Arraez and have Kirilloff play a little more OF if he is, hopefully, finally, 100% and ready to go. I thought Bell made a lot of sense if they couldn't find the right OF fit.

Been a fan of Max's since the day he was signed. What a great story! Always believed the natural athleticism would take over and the bat we saw tease in milb would be real at the ML level. Alas, he's just never been anything but around average with the bat, though a good baserunner and by no means an automatic K machine. Do we really think the shift ban is going to really set up him for success? First of all, the shift is entirely gone. You can still play the RF in, can still shade the CF, can still play the 2B deep, can still have the 1B play off the bag, and the SS can still cheat up the middle, he just can't cross the 2B bag until contact. So unless Kepler suddenly re-discovers some actual power in his stroke I don't see a major change, though it might help some. I can see all the reasons to keep him, and have done so in other TD articles. Quality defense and can cover CF well. (He doesn't like to do it daily as he's reported it wears down his legs some, and with Gordon and Celestino on the roster the past couple of years, he hasn't had to as much. That might be a mistake). Hes a veteran with rebound potential and offers at least a little more of a "sure thing" presence when we're still waiting for Kirilloff, and Larnach to be 100% physically ready and for Wallner to just be ready period, especially with a little smoothing of his defensive edges. But at some point, you also have to trust in your top prospects. And all 3 of those guys are top Twins player prospects. And this team really needs improved offensive production. Good defense is awesome! It's valuable! But damn, this team needs to score some runs too! And yes, with or without Kepler they need some RH help better than Garlick. I'm fine if Max is back as a lower order hitter...where he should have been for a while now...I'm not going to be upset. Let him play great defense and produce in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, hopefully with some uptick based on health, adjustments, and at least some changes in the shift. But the term that's been attached to him of late is "freezer burn", meaning at some point, things expire, it's just time to move on. I think Kepler and the Twins may have reached that date.

Oh, I'm perfectly happy with Vasquez! I just felt Narvaez made more immediate sense; 2yrs younger, hits LH to form a quasi-platoon with Jeffers. Despite a poor 2022, Narvaez has slightly better offensive numbers, including a bit more power. So he just felt like the guy the FO would targer, IMO. Vasquez would be a great signing.