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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    This represents the smallest change possible.
  2. DJL44
    I think it's a bad idea to waste MLB at-bats on a player with limited upside. Suppose playing on a bad team has less pressure than playing for the Dodgers and Outman can put up an OPS more in line with his AAA stats. He becomes a 700 OPS guy with a decent glove for a couple seasons when the Twins aren't trying to contend. Then he starts his inevitable post-age-30 decline as his arbitration salaries increase and he gets non-tendered in 2027. What's the point? Why not invest the playing time in Emmanuel Rodriguez instead?
  3. DJL44
    If they change out the bottom and add a competent bullpen to make a 70-win team, they will sell again at the deadline and fall short of 70 wins.
  4. DJL44
    International signings represent about 1/3 of all players now. Based on the success rate of recent Japanese players, I'd say there are roughly 60 MLB players on rosters in Japan. I occasionally wonder what would happen if a team decided to bring over an all-Japanese 40-man roster, including the managers and staff but excluding the players already here. Could that team make the playoffs?
  5. DJL44
    Now, with the base rate as context, we can judge the Twins 2019 draft Reached the majors 8 - Wallner, Steer, Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick, Laweryson, Varland, Julien Played 3+ seasons 4 - Wallner, Steer, Varland, Julien That's a decent draft. Two players with 3+ WAR and one more with a chance to exceed that.
  6. DJL44
    A parody of beauty pageants and the manager selection process at the same time.
  7. DJL44
    There are a lot of players who have played in the major leagues who don't contribute much. Here's a good study covering 15 drafts. The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study – Society for American Baseball Research Round / % who play in majors / % who play 3+ seasons 1 / 67% / 47% 2 / 49% / 31% 3 / 40% / 22% 4 / 35% / 18% 5 / 33% / 18% 6 / 24% / 11% 7 / 20% / 9% 8 / 24% / 10% 9 / 18% / 8% 10 / 18% / 8% 11-15 / 13% / 5% Adding up all the percentages you get All / 3.92 / 2.07 On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.
  8. DJL44
    Jeffers is going to get about $6M in arbitration in 2026. Two additional years at $15M per season would make him one of the top 5 paid catchers in baseball. That’s 50% more than they paid Vazquez.
  9. DJL44
    They protected Adams, which looks like a mistake, and Klein seems better than Adams.
  10. DJL44
    I also agree that they can be competitive with a $120M payroll. They have a lot of cheap talent to choose from before they have to fill holes on the roster. The emphasis should be on developing that cheap talent so they shouldn't block rookies with veterans just to raise the floor. They should be able to fill those holes still remaining (1B, C2, UT/SS, RP) for $30M. Backup C, UT and two relievers shouldn't cost more than $12-15M which leaves them $15-18M to spend on a first baseman if they choose. I doubt they will, so I hope Jeffers gets a 3 year, $36M contract. If they acquire more talent in a starting pitcher trade, they may be able to fill more of those holes with rookies. They could potentially have $40M available to spend on free agents and only one or two places to spend that money. That's a great opportunity to offer long-term contracts to your current players.
  11. DJL44
    If they play bad defense, they really can't OPS .650 and still be worth it. That's a bad DH. If they field like Max Kepler, then they can play everyday. The front office should know a LOT more about these guys than I do. They see them hit in practice every day, during spring training and in the cages. If Larnach can't hit lefties in practice, he's not going to magically be able to hit them in game situations.
  12. DJL44
    Another way of putting "stagnating or outright regressing" is "fulfilling their potential as a hitter". Aaron Judge has pretty much 'stagnated' as a hitter - he's not getting any better. It's just that his potential is a lot higher than Trevor Larnach.
  13. DJL44
    Based on the numbers, the mistake was letting him hit every day instead of keeping him in a strict platoon role.
  14. DJL44

    An Observation

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    Your "observation" is contradicted by all the data. Baseball Demographics, 1947-2016 – Society for American Baseball Research Diversity in MLB expanding in 2023 Latino representation in MLB is above 30% and has never been higher.
  15. DJL44
    I think the injuries affected him last season. He'd get on a hot streak, get hurt, come back with his timing not quite right.
  16. DJL44
    Roughly 1/3 come from international free agency. I agree that they need to find 3 new players a year if they are building solely through acquiring amateurs. The hit rate for that is somewhere between 1 and 2 players a year per team so the Twins need to be about twice as good as the rest of the league if they want to build only through the draft. It's not a reliable way to build a contender, though it is a cheap way to field a team. If you only get 6 years of team control, then you're not going to have any players over 30. Established, veteran players are pretty useful on a winning team.
  17. DJL44
    Miranda was a bad AAA player last season. Kudos to any team who can get anything productive out of him. If he plays in the major leagues again I'll be surprised and I think it's nearly impossible he becomes an All-Star like Rooker. I think he ends up in Korea.
  18. DJL44
    Which is about 2x as productive as the league overall.
  19. DJL44
    Drafts produce on average MLB 1-1/2 players per team. This 2019 draft is pretty average.
  20. DJL44
    Interesting that you bring up Wallner. Matt Wallner has a significantly higher RBI/AB ratio than Arraez. He’s a LOT better at driving in runs. Arraez gets on base but his singles don’t drive in runners unless they are already on third base.
  21. DJL44
    Most estimates are calculated based on past performance and past paychecks. They don't take into account the most recent information available, which is why they're low on Naylor and high on Arraez and Bell.
  22. DJL44
    This would be news to Goldschmidt, who told reporters he intends to keep playing.
  23. DJL44
    Peralta from the Brewers will also be on the market. They like to sell and buy at the same time. They could easily fit Joe Ryan's salary into their payroll.
  24. DJL44
    If they're a 100+ loss team without Joe Ryan, then they're a 95 loss team with him. Why keep him just to avoid 100 losses? Is it a lot better to go 68-94?
  25. DJL44
    You conveniently left off their SLG. Bichette - .483, Arraez .392. A bad defensive SS is worth a lot more than a bad defensive 1B. If Bichette moves to 3B he'll be fine. I don't understand why you think Arraez will have 80 RBI playing for the Twins. He's never done that. His all-time high for RBI is 69 and he hit .354 that season. He's a 60 RBI guy for a good team and a 40-50 RBI guy for this Twins lineup.
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