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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Based on the numbers, the mistake was letting him hit every day instead of keeping him in a strict platoon role.
  2. DJL44

    An Observation

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    Your "observation" is contradicted by all the data. Baseball Demographics, 1947-2016 – Society for American Baseball Research Diversity in MLB expanding in 2023 Latino representation in MLB is above 30% and has never been higher.
  3. DJL44
    I think the injuries affected him last season. He'd get on a hot streak, get hurt, come back with his timing not quite right.
  4. DJL44
    Roughly 1/3 come from international free agency. I agree that they need to find 3 new players a year if they are building solely through acquiring amateurs. The hit rate for that is somewhere between 1 and 2 players a year per team so the Twins need to be about twice as good as the rest of the league if they want to build only through the draft. It's not a reliable way to build a contender, though it is a cheap way to field a team. If you only get 6 years of team control, then you're not going to have any players over 30. Established, veteran players are pretty useful on a winning team.
  5. DJL44
    Miranda was a bad AAA player last season. Kudos to any team who can get anything productive out of him. If he plays in the major leagues again I'll be surprised and I think it's nearly impossible he becomes an All-Star like Rooker. I think he ends up in Korea.
  6. DJL44
    Which is about 2x as productive as the league overall.
  7. DJL44
    Drafts produce on average MLB 1-1/2 players per team. This 2019 draft is pretty average.
  8. DJL44
    Interesting that you bring up Wallner. Matt Wallner has a significantly higher RBI/AB ratio than Arraez. He’s a LOT better at driving in runs. Arraez gets on base but his singles don’t drive in runners unless they are already on third base.
  9. DJL44
    Most estimates are calculated based on past performance and past paychecks. They don't take into account the most recent information available, which is why they're low on Naylor and high on Arraez and Bell.
  10. DJL44
    This would be news to Goldschmidt, who told reporters he intends to keep playing.
  11. DJL44
    Peralta from the Brewers will also be on the market. They like to sell and buy at the same time. They could easily fit Joe Ryan's salary into their payroll.
  12. DJL44
    If they're a 100+ loss team without Joe Ryan, then they're a 95 loss team with him. Why keep him just to avoid 100 losses? Is it a lot better to go 68-94?
  13. DJL44
    You conveniently left off their SLG. Bichette - .483, Arraez .392. A bad defensive SS is worth a lot more than a bad defensive 1B. If Bichette moves to 3B he'll be fine. I don't understand why you think Arraez will have 80 RBI playing for the Twins. He's never done that. His all-time high for RBI is 69 and he hit .354 that season. He's a 60 RBI guy for a good team and a 40-50 RBI guy for this Twins lineup.
  14. DJL44
    Good post. I don't think they're going to spend $4M each on relievers and I think there is a starting pitcher trade that will happen to shake up this roster. They aren't going to leave Matthews and Abel in AAA next year. What they need after that trade will determine how much they spend on free agents.
  15. DJL44
    Who is the backup SS? Every team needs a utility player who can handle SS. That isn't Royce or Keaschall.
  16. DJL44
    Use the whole field. Easier said, than done.
  17. DJL44
    1B options by age Munetaka Murakami (26) Triston Casas (26) Ryan Mountcastle (29) Josh Naylor (29) Luis Arraez (29) Kazuma Okamoto (30) Pete Alonso (31) Yoan Moncada (31) Miguel Andujar (31) Ty France (31) Ryan O’Hearn (32) Rhys Hoskins (33) Josh Bell (33) Yandy Diaz (34) Wilmer Flores (34) Paul Goldschmidt (38) Carlos Santana (40) Justin Turner (41)
  18. DJL44
    If the Twins had Diaz under contract I would be trying to sell. Another Andrew Morris would be more valuable in the long run. I do think it is valuable to have someone to fill in at 1B so they can avoid playing Edouard Julien there. It's also useful for a bad team to stash a few veterans for the deadline.
  19. DJL44
    What this really highlights is how pathetic the Twins have been at SS, especially compared to other franchises. Does any other franchise have a "best SS" as bad as Roy Smalley? Smalley couldn't make the top 5 for some franchises. If you include the Senators for this franchise, you can add Joe Cronin and Cecil Travis. That makes it less embarrassing. Pittsburgh - Honus Wagner, Arky Vaughan, Jay Bell Seattle - Alex Rodriguez Baltimore - Cal Ripken Jr White Sox - Luke Appling Cubs - Ernie Banks, Bill Dahlen, Joe Tinker Cardinals - Ozzie Smith Reds - Barry Larkin, Dave Concepcion Giants - George Davis, Dave Bancroft, Art Fletcher Tigers - Alan Trammell Brewers - Robin Yount Guardians - Lou Boudreau, Joe Sewell, Omar Vizquel Yankees - Derek Jeter, Phil Rizzuto Athletics - Bert Campaneris, Miguel Tejada Red Sox - Johnny Pesky, Nomar Garciaparra, Vern Stephens Angels - Jim Fregosi Braves - Rabbit Maranville Rockies - Troy Tulowitzki Phillies - Dick Bartell, Jimmy Rollins Blue Jays - Tony Fernandez
  20. DJL44
    I would bet on Andujar, especially with Clemens around as a caddy. I would be comfortable giving Andujar a 2-year $10-12M contract. He's only 30. He's also only made $10M in career earnings so a second guaranteed season might be all it takes. He doesn't walk enough or have huge power, but he hits .280 and can play the position. I don't think Goldschmidt is going to get a choice to stay with the Yankees, but he might have a better fallback option than the Twins. He doesn't even need much of a resurrection - he was a 1.2 WAR player in 2025 because he can still field.
  21. DJL44
    Naylor is going to get paid this offseason, possibly 5 years. In fact, I'd swap his estimate (3 years $45M) with Arraez (5 years $70M). I don't think he's the guy to lock up for 5 seasons. He's having a great year with Seattle but was basically average (1.5-2 WAR) for the previous 3 seasons playing for Cleveland and Arizona. The Twins can't afford to win that bidding war. I like Diaz but I don't like the idea of giving up talent to acquire him. The other free agents just cost money. O'Hearn is another lefty bat on a team with a bunch of lefty DH options. if he is non-tendered, I think Mountcastle might sign for the same 2 years $14M they predict for Hoskins. I'd rather have Mountcastle than Hoskins just due to age. Moncada is a really interesting bounce-back candidate. He has the glove to play 1B and has had two consecutive seasons of 116 OPS+. That seems to be easily worth $2M. They're as accurate as everyone else's inaccurate estimates.
  22. DJL44
    I disagree with this. Here are all the options and their estimated contracts from Spotrac and news sources. Alonso 6 years $176M Murakami 8 years - $200M (could be longer and more money but $25M AAV looks right) Arraez 5 years $70M (no thanks) Okamoto 4 years - $55M Naylor 3 years $45M (this is low, add a 4th season) Diaz 2 years $34M (actual contract is 2 years - $22-24M so $10M excess value) O'Hearn 2 years $22M Hoskins 2 years $14M Mountcastle ($10M arbitration estimate) Bell 1 year $11M (more than double what I expected) Goldschmidt 1 year $7M Santana 1 year $6M Andujar 1 year $6M Moncada 1 year $2M Flores 1 year $2M France 1 year $1.6M The Twins should be interested in any of the guys in bold. At those prices, I'd rank them Andujar, Goldschmidt, Hoskins, Moncada.
  23. DJL44
    Kirilloff was their internal development option. He had a career ending injury.
  24. DJL44
    And a shortstop.
  25. DJL44

    An Observation

    DJL44 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    The Twins have traded away a lot of Latino players because they've had a lot of Latino players. I don't think they've been traded away at a higher rate than any other country of origin and you haven't provided any data to back up your claim.
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