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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Why would that make the franchise more attractive? Do you strip your house down to the studs to sell it?
  2. DJL44
    A steady job and a promised trade to a contender if the team is out of the running will attract veteran players. Do you think Bader is upset with how last year went?
  3. DJL44
    Familiarity seems to be the common thread of this offseason
  4. DJL44
    Shelton did manage the Pirates to four of the most profitable seasons in MLB history.
  5. DJL44
    Larnach for Joey Bart?
  6. DJL44
    Looks like Kody Clemens will fall short of Super-Two status and not qualify for arbitration.
  7. DJL44
    Do we know that Shelton was the front office's first choice? Did other candidates turn them down after the interview? I've certainly backed out from joining organizations after I've had a chance to meet the people in charge face to face.
  8. DJL44
    Rutschman is a better defender than Vazquez or Jeffers. He's a better defender than pretty much all of the available free agents.
  9. DJL44
    or How do you fix Royce Lewis?
  10. DJL44
    They are betting a big portion of their future on developing young pitching. Punting the catcher position is a really bad idea in that context. Play good defense behind young pitchers.
  11. DJL44
    I want to know if Pete Maki is staying. He has actually been able to transition the young talent to the major leagues and I'd like him to stay.
  12. DJL44
    That's not a flaw, that's how trade values work. Older, more expensive and less team control is worth less than younger, cheaper and more team control.
  13. DJL44
    The biggest problem with this hire is Falvey doubling down on the same process that led to these results in the first place. "Trust the process" that has led to one of the worst teams in baseball.
  14. DJL44
    This represents the smallest change possible.
  15. DJL44
    I think it's a bad idea to waste MLB at-bats on a player with limited upside. Suppose playing on a bad team has less pressure than playing for the Dodgers and Outman can put up an OPS more in line with his AAA stats. He becomes a 700 OPS guy with a decent glove for a couple seasons when the Twins aren't trying to contend. Then he starts his inevitable post-age-30 decline as his arbitration salaries increase and he gets non-tendered in 2027. What's the point? Why not invest the playing time in Emmanuel Rodriguez instead?
  16. DJL44
    If they change out the bottom and add a competent bullpen to make a 70-win team, they will sell again at the deadline and fall short of 70 wins.
  17. DJL44
    International signings represent about 1/3 of all players now. Based on the success rate of recent Japanese players, I'd say there are roughly 60 MLB players on rosters in Japan. I occasionally wonder what would happen if a team decided to bring over an all-Japanese 40-man roster, including the managers and staff but excluding the players already here. Could that team make the playoffs?
  18. DJL44
    Now, with the base rate as context, we can judge the Twins 2019 draft Reached the majors 8 - Wallner, Steer, Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick, Laweryson, Varland, Julien Played 3+ seasons 4 - Wallner, Steer, Varland, Julien That's a decent draft. Two players with 3+ WAR and one more with a chance to exceed that.
  19. DJL44
    A parody of beauty pageants and the manager selection process at the same time.
  20. DJL44
    There are a lot of players who have played in the major leagues who don't contribute much. Here's a good study covering 15 drafts. The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study – Society for American Baseball Research Round / % who play in majors / % who play 3+ seasons 1 / 67% / 47% 2 / 49% / 31% 3 / 40% / 22% 4 / 35% / 18% 5 / 33% / 18% 6 / 24% / 11% 7 / 20% / 9% 8 / 24% / 10% 9 / 18% / 8% 10 / 18% / 8% 11-15 / 13% / 5% Adding up all the percentages you get All / 3.92 / 2.07 On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.
  21. DJL44
    Jeffers is going to get about $6M in arbitration in 2026. Two additional years at $15M per season would make him one of the top 5 paid catchers in baseball. That’s 50% more than they paid Vazquez.
  22. DJL44
    They protected Adams, which looks like a mistake, and Klein seems better than Adams.
  23. DJL44
    I also agree that they can be competitive with a $120M payroll. They have a lot of cheap talent to choose from before they have to fill holes on the roster. The emphasis should be on developing that cheap talent so they shouldn't block rookies with veterans just to raise the floor. They should be able to fill those holes still remaining (1B, C2, UT/SS, RP) for $30M. Backup C, UT and two relievers shouldn't cost more than $12-15M which leaves them $15-18M to spend on a first baseman if they choose. I doubt they will, so I hope Jeffers gets a 3 year, $36M contract. If they acquire more talent in a starting pitcher trade, they may be able to fill more of those holes with rookies. They could potentially have $40M available to spend on free agents and only one or two places to spend that money. That's a great opportunity to offer long-term contracts to your current players.
  24. DJL44
    If they play bad defense, they really can't OPS .650 and still be worth it. That's a bad DH. If they field like Max Kepler, then they can play everyday. The front office should know a LOT more about these guys than I do. They see them hit in practice every day, during spring training and in the cages. If Larnach can't hit lefties in practice, he's not going to magically be able to hit them in game situations.
  25. DJL44
    Another way of putting "stagnating or outright regressing" is "fulfilling their potential as a hitter". Aaron Judge has pretty much 'stagnated' as a hitter - he's not getting any better. It's just that his potential is a lot higher than Trevor Larnach.
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