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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    The catcher market doesn't usually go that high. Sean Murphy is getting $15M because he's an All-Star with a gold glove award. Will Smith is making $14M and Cal Raleigh is at $17.5M. I don't think Jeffers is in that performance tier. If they want Sean Murphy, there are rumors that the remaining 3 years and $45M of his contract are available due to ROY Drake Baldwin. I might be tempted to take that contract on and trade Jeffers if he won't sign for less than $36M.
  2. DJL44
    The Twins absolutely have to spend some money extending contracts for the players they've developed. That's the most effective use of their budget.
  3. DJL44
    Last year probably was a better time, they could have negotiated a lower number, but this season works for me too. Jeffers will be the best catcher available as a free agent next season. By Fangraphs he's the 18th best catcher over the last two seasons - almost exactly as valuable as Salvador Perez. Perez just signed an extension for 2 years, $25M. The Twins have Jeffers with one arbitration season remaining at about $6M so a 3yr-$30M contract would be market rate. I would try to get an option/buyout for 2029 at $12M/$1M as well. Jeffers will turn 32 in 2029. Even though Jeffers will be the best free agent catcher next season, I don't think he will get more than a 3 year, $36M contract. If he takes the $30M now he would be potentially giving up $12M. That would be mitigated somewhat by the option year. The big risk for Jeffers is he suffers a major injury this season that keeps him from playing behind the plate in future seasons. He'd be risking $30M to try for an extra $12M.
  4. DJL44
    Eeles may have been a Saints fan favorite but he never played for the Twins. He's freely available talent, just like most AAA players.
  5. DJL44
    Brandon Clarke is a pretty good prospect add for the Cardinals. They will be looking to sell more players. I expect Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero and Nolan Arenado to end up somewhere else, not sure about Willson Contreras or Lars Nootbaar.
  6. DJL44
    There are at least a dozen major and minor league free agent first basemen with more impressive stats than an 825 OPS in AAA.
  7. DJL44
    Cole Peschl has been okay
  8. DJL44
    I don't know if this makes them more or less likely to trade for Joe Ryan. They filled a spot in the rotation but may want to add even more.
  9. DJL44
    Red Sox are taking on most of the salary and returning a mediocre reliever and minor league pitcher.
  10. DJL44
    Sure, but not for outfielders
  11. DJL44
    If you're looking at a redraft 18 months later, then you would see these grades Culpepper - up DeBarge - down Amick - down Hill - up Diaw - flat Ferrer - down Kendle - down Nick Kurtz might go #1 now instead of #4 and Payton Tolle at #50 looks like a great pick by the Red Sox.
  12. DJL44
    I agree. If you had to do the 2024 draft all over again, there is no way DeBarge goes 33rd overall. His stock is trending down.
  13. DJL44
    "Take the hit" means trade Ryan, Lopez, Ober and Jeffers this winter. They can't compete with what they already have in house.
  14. DJL44
    Larnach, Julien, Clemens and Outman aren't young.
  15. DJL44
    I'd be fine with that, if they can't find a better option.
  16. DJL44
    I think Mountcastle is a decent bet to put up numbers more like his career splits - 724 OPS vs RHP and 813 OPS vs LHP. I also think everyone is expecting that Kody Clemens is unlikely to repeat his best ever offensive performance of 2025. His career splits are 688 OPS vs RHP and 571 OPS vs LHP.
  17. DJL44
    I expect Roden would get plenty of at-bats at Martin's expense due to the platoon advantage. Buxton will get days off (or DH days platooning with Wallner) with Emmanuel Rodriguez shifting to CF which will open up RF on those days. He can easily play 3 days a week even with everyone healthy. I also think there is a >90% chance of an injury in the first six weeks. Martin, Buxton, Castro and Wallner all spent time on the IL before the end of May last season. It's better than even odds that at least two outfielders go on the injured list in the first two months of the season.
  18. DJL44
    First base actually has a lot of free agent options who fit in the budget and would improve the team. SS has two: Ha-Seong Kim and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. Based on supply and demand, it is harder to find a shortstop.
  19. DJL44
    Roden becomes the 4th OF. Martin LF, Buxton CF, Rodriguez RF, Wallner DH. There's plenty of at-bats for all of them. Players get dinged up all the time.
  20. DJL44
    Minor league free agent SS OPS in AAA last season and age Yordys Valdes 526 23 Luis Verdugo 494 24 Dalvy Rosario 508 24 Eddys Leonard 739 24 Liover Peguero 688 24 Raynel Delgado 741 25 Jonathan Ornelas 574 25 Livan Soto 571 26 Jordan Groshans 660 26 Chad Stevens 855 26 Rodolfo Castro 745 26 Andrew Navigato 649 27 Diego Castillo 737 27 Connor Kaiser 751 28 Will Holland 637 28 Riley Unroe 806 29 Alan Trejo 789 29 Jackson Cluff 771 29 Andrew Velazquez 649 30 Dixon Machado 646 33 Jack Lopez 623 32 I bolded the best candidates and crossed out guys who I know have already signed a contract
  21. DJL44
    I posted a list of minor league free agent SS options in another thread. The Phillies already grabbed one of those guys. The Twins need to grab at least one of them, especially after trading Eeles.
  22. DJL44
    They just need to find new homes for Outman and Larnach, which is something they absolutely need to do anyway. Emmanuel Rodriguez can have RF in that scenario.
  23. DJL44
    Every team needs at least 13 pitchers and at most two shortstops.
  24. DJL44
    I'd rather have a first baseman who makes Clemens the backup at other positions.
  25. DJL44
    People shouldn't really mention Canterino as an option for the MLB bullpen. He hasn't pitched in years. The most likely scenario is he retires from baseball. Next most likely is he struggles in AAA as he works back to pitching at a high level. I think the bullpen is basically the only way the Twins will get any value from Raya. He's running out of options and he's not going to be good enough to start in any reasonable timeline before the Twins run out of control. I think Festa and Prielipp could be the high leverage relievers the Twins desperately need.
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