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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    If Ryan finishes in the top 3 in the AL CYA voting the Twins get an extra draft pick.
  2. DJL44
    Last 7 days Keirsey .423/.429/.692 Martin .333/.516/.524 Holland .286/.444/.786 Wallner .095/.222/.095
  3. DJL44
    Streaky is an identity
  4. DJL44
    Bad teams are exactly the kinds of teams who play guys like Manuel Margot. They often need a placeholder to let them keep their prospects from gaining service time. The Rangers just acquired Robbie Grossman to fill in because their outfield depth is depleted. I don't think the Twins would get much beyond salary relief for Margot.
  5. DJL44
    You can't look at career stats for Margot, he's clearly not the same player. Looking just at the raw athletic skills on Statcast for 2024. Player Range, Arm Strength, Sprint Speed Castro 81st percentile, 89.1 mph, 27.9 ft/s Margot 17th percentile, 82.7 mph, 27.1 ft/s Looking at outfielder jump Castro 0.6 reaction, 0.8 burst, -0.2 route => 1.2 ft above average Margot 1.1 reaction -2 burst, 0.2 route => 0.6 feet below average Castro gets about 1.8 feet more jump on the ball, has a higher top speed and a better arm.
  6. DJL44
    If the Twins gave Castro a 3 year $15M contract extension he would be quite tradeable. Contracts have value beyond the context of your current roster.
  7. DJL44
    Manuel Margot seems to have the least value to the organization of any player on the roster. Willi Castro is a much better option as a RH bat in the outfield and a better fielder as well. Austin Martin and DaShawn Keirsey look like adequate depth in AAA. As bad as he's been so far there is at least one other team where Margot could provide value. The Rockies outfield has been bad with Jake Cave 2nd in WAR among outfielders. Their RH batting rookie outfielder Beck has a broken hand. That's a team where Margot can definitely contribute. Are there any others? The White Sox signed Tommy Pham and the Rangers just acquired Robbie Grossman or they might have had interest. Would someone else be willing to pick up the remaining $3M for Margot to see if they can get him back to his career average performance?
  8. DJL44
    This seems like a digression. Emmanuel Rodriguez was not part of the Jorge Polanco trade.
  9. DJL44
    Why is it that umpires always get tired of the batter not swinging? Why don't they ever get tired of the pitcher nibbling and refusing to throw strikes? It is an interesting psychology question.
  10. DJL44
    Miranda has the 4th highest OPS on the team. It would be rather dumb to send him to AAA. Adding Lewis means Miranda will play more at 1B and DH. If Miranda is the DH against lefties then Vazquez sits more often. I think everyone would be happy if Vazquez was sitting more often. I think this is going to be decided by where they want to play Willi Castro. They could put Castro in LF, move Kirilloff to 1B/DH and option Larnach or move Castro to 2B and option Julien. They could also make Castro the 4th outfielder and cut Margot since Castro has been beating up on LHP.
  11. DJL44
    The Twins are likely to send Larnach down when Lewis comes back. That puts Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey and Martin in the St. Paul outfield. One of them can DH but Rodriguez would end up taking playing time away from someone, most likely Keirsey.
  12. DJL44
    Lee will be joining the Saints when his rehab is done. They're not moving Jenkins directly to AAA.
  13. DJL44
    Zebby
  14. DJL44
    Yeah, I tried to look up 2023 and it was actually 2024. My mistake.
  15. DJL44
    And the MLB leader for LF in Outs Above Average was 5 in 2023. That's 5 extra outs in 162 games. It's really easy to make up 5-10 outs on the offensive side. The Twins left fielders are not giving up an extra out every other game but putting a bad bat in LF could absolutely give up an extra out every other game.
  16. DJL44
    Wallner has been awful this year. That's a low bar to jump over.
  17. DJL44
    I picked the first seven players I could find who are currently playing in AAA and have played in MLB. Then I took a back of the envelope projection based on their MLB stats. If you have better major league equivalencies on a broader set of data feel free to post here and I'll look over your data. The amount of the performance drop varies by year due to run scoring environment but it ALWAYS drops. This isn't hard to understand. MLB is a LOT harder than AAA. The players are in AAA because they aren't good enough to play in MLB regularly. If players hit exactly as well in MLB as they do in AAA that would mean AAA is exactly as difficult as MLB.
  18. DJL44
    LF doesn't get that many defensive chances a game. Matt Wallner has 64 putouts and 1 assist in 333 innings in LF for his career. That's 2 defensive chances per game. You can't give away 4 at-bats to gain defensively for two opportunities a game.
  19. DJL44
    Saturday's game is the free game on MLB.tv (blackouts apply).
  20. DJL44
    Let's take a look at some the stats of some current AAA players who have long track records in MLB Akil Baddoo 860 OPS in AAA, 680 OPS in MLB (all 2024) Travis Blankenhorn 850 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2023) Trayce Thompson 865 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (2023) Ben Gamel 960 OPS in AAA, 716 career OPS in MLB David Dahl 980 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2021-23) Jake Lamb 930 OPS in AAA, 750 OPS in MLB (career) Jose Rojas 920 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (career) A 200+ point drop in OPS is common moving from AAA to MLB. Keirsey would actually be pretty lucky to have a 700 OPS in his first taste of MLB. With adjustments over time he could probably provide a 700 OPS at the peak of his brief MLB career.
  21. DJL44
    The White Sox have Tommy Pham. He's a better RH platoon bat than Margot. Detroit has Mark Canha and he's also a better option. Are you saying the Twins can't have nice things like the White Sox and Tigers have?
  22. DJL44
    I really doubt Brooks Lee will be promoted that quickly unless there is an injury to a starter. They're definitely not going to make him a platoon RH bat like Kyle Farmer, especially when he's better as a LH batter.
  23. DJL44
    So is filling your roster with below average veterans.
  24. DJL44
    Margot's last three seasons have been .696, .700 and .686. That's a .700 OPS hitter. His glove has slipped this season which is probably the larger concern. If Margot isn't good enough defensively for CF he's not really worth a roster spot. That doesn't mean Keirsey is the answer. The answer would be obtaining a real RH platoon bat for the corner OF, not someone with a predicted 700 OPS against lefties.
  25. DJL44
    Swapping minor league players every 2 weeks reeks of desperation. If you're only going to give a player a 2 week trial then you don't have any faith in the player.
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