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Cris E

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Everything posted by Cris E

  1. Cris E
    The Twins accepted different opinions because they weren't asking the same questions. The Giants and Mets were essentially working from the same starting point, trying to get a contract with an excellent youngish SS free agent who had a lot of leverage when playing teams against each other. At the point the Giants backed out it easily could have been a team thing or a real health thing. But when the Mets backed out too Correa's negotiating position was significantly weakened. Once his health was in doubt the Twins were free to not be considering 10-12 years of health because they had the leverage to crank down on the guaranteed years. When you need to paying out for ten or twelve years you're far more concerned about what difficulty a 38 year old might have with arthritis than when you're looking at six years and how the 34 year old might be feeling. Our front office was able to take those earlier negotiations to change their discussion to reduce risk to align with what the docs were saying.
  2. Cris E
    Personally I'm completely freaked out by Lewis' second ACL and I'd trade him as soon as anyone freaked out when his name was mentioned. I think the Marlins would love him, for example. I'm pretty conservative by nature so I'd hang on to as many of my MLB guys as possible until the AAA and AA kids and the injured MLB guys showed their 2023 faces in spring training. How do the injured guys like Polanco, Kirillof and Larnach look after a winter of recovery? Can Lee and Julien still hang against even better pitching? How's Noah Miller look this spring? Has Martin figured anything out this winter? Is Lewis still improving and on plan? Once you know where they are and if they're still advancing you can move Miranda or Arraez or Lewis or anyone else for whatever it turns out you need. Maybe we don't need Lopez, maybe someone takes a shine to Maeda, maybe the new catcher gets hurt, maybe Florida really wants a 2b from us, whatever, take the best deal, but right now I'd wait to move until some of these guys at a low point have a chance to recover some value.
  3. Cris E
    They just sent out their SS and don't really have a good replacement on the roster. Send Royce Lewis for a real return. Correa has really changed his value to us, especially with Lee and Noah Miller on his heels.
  4. Cris E
    Option 2.5: keep swapping out parts as the opportunities arise. The spiraling market said that we weren't getting a SS for a 13 year deal, so we get a filler there and go with the kids when Lewis gets healthy. You've got a young 3b, a delayed start to the young SS, old man Polanco at 2b is only 29 next year, Arraez at 1b will be 26 and you have good middle infielders coming up behind them that aren't ready yet. You just signed a solid glove at C to cover the gap in your farm and you're up to your fetlocks in good youngsters looking for OF time. We have a ton of decent starting pitchers that didn't get a chance to show their stuff last year. But Maeda and Grey have been good in the past, Mahle and Ryan are still improving, Mahle and Ober and Paddack have been good when healthy, Varland and Woods Richardson and Winder poked their noses up for a moment last year and there are more behind them. The bullpen has a number of good to excellent pieces to build around and a lot of starters that may need new roles this year. Honestly what's a rebuild supposed to look like? The thing to do here is play the kids you have and see how they mature, pitch the guys you have and see if they can stay healthy, and pick up some parts when the opportunity arises.
  5. Cris E
    You think so? I think they had Arraez on the roster because he's a great contact hitter who has never shown an ounce of power and never impressed anyone with his glovework. I think they loaded up their draft classes and trades on middle infield guys who do not hit many HR but can go to other positions and hit doubles. I think they dumped everyone from that 2019 team who hit more than 20 HR except Polanco and Kepler, and Kepler might be on his way out. Keep up, I think the strategy changed while you weren't paying attention.
  6. Cris E
    Have you seen what the Yankees are planning on running out there next year? JUDGE! and Hicks when he's healthy and Stanton when he's healthy and Bader and some kids. And let's be honest, Judge has some injury history as well, missing 50 games in 2018 and 60 in 2019. Kepler can field all the OF spots, might hit better with next year's rules, isn't expensive, is an adult so he won't be a distraction, and MN Twins fans are the only ones spoiled enough to want to get rid of him. Again, the whole league crashed last year, not just Kepler. He had his worst season, true, but it was a 93 OPS+. Who else did you want? Pollack from CHW had a 91 OPS+, Cleveland's Franmil Reyes was 73, KC's Hunter Dozier had a 90. Heck, Detroit's whole starting lineup only had one person ahead of him, and Kepler would have tied Baez for second at 93. A lot of teams would have been thrilled to be running Max out there.
  7. Cris E
    At this point I could see trading Kepler to NYY for IKF and some young arms.
  8. Cris E
    Move ahead with Vasquez at C, Go get Bassett and then call Correa back and tell him we're serious. I think he wants to see what sort of team he'll be on for a decade before signing. If there's time they can trade for someone to hit from the right side and mess around on calls regarding Kepler and Pagan.
  9. Cris E
    The top couple prospects in the Yankees' system are SS, so while Correa does fit their model for ultra-professional grown-ups (vs petulant disasters like Tatis) I think they have other ways to spend their money right now.
  10. Cris E
    The thing about these ultra-huge contracts is that the number of years is almost irrelevant. 8x$35m=$280m is not a ton different from 10 for $300m if you think about tossing a couple $10m years on the end of such a huge deal and how little $10m might be in 2032. I'd be comfortable telling him the $340m Lindor and Tatis deals are not going to be comps, and letting him go at that point if he presses the point. The Twins' roster is not awash with guys needing to make $15m or more so they can handle a $35m ticket without getting the vapors.
  11. Cris E
    The trick to trading Kepler at a point where his value is low is finding a team who REALLY believes in his chances for a bounce-back next year. Someone who is certain the death of the shift or a new home field will let him blossom, or at least find 2019 again. You're not going to hear teams saying something like that out loud in the papers, but if you talk to enough of them you'll get a couple who direct the conversation around to him to see if they can pick him up cheap. Sorting through those talks to get one GM hooked and eventually willing to pay what you want is the game in a deal for Max. Not sure that it's actually out there, but working your way through the other teams is what it'll take (unless TOR or MIA leap at him in talks for the guys we want to get.)
  12. Cris E
    Two points: PIT has been standing pat on Reynolds with a preposterously high asking price for a long time. It's well-established that they are happy to hang on to him for a while yet. But make a call anyway, throw some names around, listen for something unexpected to be said. They may be completely in love with Arreaez or something. It's not the best run franchise out there, you could get lucky. I wouldn't be averse to sending one of our Totally Awesome Except They're Always Hurt corner guys out for him.
  13. Cris E
    One thing that's changing next year that might work against MN luring FAs is the balanced schedule. Back in the day (ie last year) the competition was harsh on the coasts but CLE/CHW/MIN and CHC/STL/MIL got to beat up on the weak kids in the Centrals to get a ticket to the post-season. In the new world the Padres and Dodgers will be spending less time beating on each other and more time stalking the weak sisters in fly-over country. We'll still get a division spot, but there's little chance of a wild-card anymore. FAs that want a short trip to the post-season will be paying attention.
  14. Cris E
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/twins-rumors-christian-vazquez-offer.html
  15. Cris E
    I think the big game shortstops are in a completely different category than the catcher search. Trading with OAK or TOR or picking up a lesser FA like Vazquez isn't going to change the budget around a $25-35m contract. A larger FA like a Rodon might have to wait until the big stuff is resolved, but a $8-12m catcher is going to fit easily. But regardless of what the Twins want, the people holding the papers on the big prizes (Boras, TOR, OAK) are going to draw things out a bit and let the market develop. As the pressure on team officials to Do Something keeps building in immoderate places like NY and BOS, there will come a point where someone just throws down to take the hand, and that's worth waiting for when you're the seller.
  16. Cris E
    Having a SS solution in place before you go shopping makes your initial bargaining position better (you're not sitting across the table from Boras desperate for a guy) and removes the danger of trying to nail something down in March. It's like eating before you go grocery shopping, just smart and helps avoid dumb purchases. I don't think they trade Gordon until Celestino proves he can actually play CF at the major league level. He showed some knuckleheaded moves on the basepaths, they did figure him out at the plate and he wasn't great about throwing to the right base, so there's substantial work to be done before he deserves a spot as large as Buxton's caddy.
  17. Cris E
    All the incentives in Maedas's contract are around starting. His contract is 8/$25m so his base salary isn't high but he gets more for starts and innings pitched. Moving to the pen is going to cost him half his paycheck and he will be cranky, as would any of us. Contract Notes: Innings Pitched Bonus $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200 Games Started Bonus $1M each for: 15, 20, $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 Trade Assignment Bonus: $1M Opening Day Roster Bonus: $150,000 Per 2/9/20 trade, Dodgers retain $10M (assumed to be 2020-2022 salary + trade bonus)
  18. Cris E
    Dave Winfield, 15 minute King of the GWRBI. Long Live the King!
  19. Cris E
    I was kind of hoping he'd get it at first base, like the gold glove nomination. Those 8 hr would have looked sweeeet up there next to all those stats from previous winners.
  20. Cris E
    Even if Colome and Pagan had been effective and stayed in the Closer With A Captiol C role in 2022 it was the smart play because Duran was the better pitcher and was moved around to the hot spots rather than relegated to the ninth.
  21. Cris E
    This is great work, and not just because I agree with your underlying premise. If I'm Falvine I spent all my time since last spring digging into injury risk factors and trying to figure out how to keep the guys I have on the field and how to identify the individuals or types of players that are likely to have trouble. This was ridiculous, but it'll happen again if we have the same guys do the same things. For every freak HBP injury there were a bunch of recurring things that felt kind of avoidable: hamstrings, core, weak shoulders, etc. It's not related to us either, as many teams lost a lot of time to injury this year. NYY were a hot mess for a bunch of the summer, to name just one. Some of this might have just been poor prep due to the lockout, but that's not what you hang your hat on after a year like 2022. And in a way you can tell they were thinking this way since they did fire and hire the trainer about as quickly as possible once the year ended. It'll be interesting to see what they do for new acquisitions. Correa has a history of injury and Bogaerts has been a rock, for example. (And they both have Boras as rep so it'll be easy to work with both of them. Ha!)
  22. Cris E
    I have been pretty easy on the front office regarding 2022 because of the preposterous number of injuries. Most of their plans were shredded early and the year devolved into patching and promoting pretty quickly. BUT they did plan a rotation around Bundy and Archer and at least one youngster (Grey, Ryan, Archer, Bundy, kids) and that was always going to put a load on the pen. Even in a world where Archer and Bundy slowly grow strong and healthy there should have been a lot more structure around the swing role for the first half of the season. Those guys never improved, just kept slinging 4+ innings of decent starts, but the pen never changed to cover that many innings. The Falvine can wear that part of the outcomes as a direct result of not designing innings 4-6..
  23. Cris E
    People don't get pressed into starting without being stretched out first. Otherwise you just get a bullpen game and they don't need to go to the minors to find that. Winder has always been a starter, and a good one, but he's had some injury problems recently. I think they should let him start until he proves he can't before making him into a reliver. It's harder to find good starters than relievers and he's been on a great path so far, so let him grow.
  24. Cris E
    + The Twins were not doing what the others were doing regardless of what they had planned. The Twins had 14 different people start games, including seven who made between 1 and 5 starts. Many of them were not MLB-quality guys, either callow youth or waiver wire refugees, who were covering for an injury hole. Even their good starters all hit the DL at one or more points and needed to work themselves back to full strength. The plans were in tatters by April 1.
  25. Cris E
    Hedges hits like me, and I bat sixth on our softball team. He cannot be an option. Find someone who can pretty much play both ways but don't insist on outstanding in either. Jeffers is OK doing what he does well and we need someone who can cover for what he doesn't do well. That means find someone who can hit RH pitching and control the running game a little. These people exist: Murphy, Jansen, Vasquez to name a few. Just go get one, and don't dilly dally or they'll all be gone.
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